US Stocks Archives

Global Stock Market Rally with US President Trump and Interest Rate Cut

Posted on November 8, 2024 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Trump is back as new US president with the strongest political power (support of Senate + Congress + Fed), therefore able to enforce economic policies such as low tax rate (pro-business) and potentially end regional wars (Russia/Ukraine, Middle East) which are the sources of high inflation rates.

Global investors dislike uncertainties, therefore a clear win by Trump has helped US stock market achieved new high again. Even Singapore STI has reached last 17 years high (>3700 points) with strong performance of 3 major banks. Meanwhile, the Fed continues to cut interest rates (another 0.25% lower in Nov 2024) to stimulate the economy, money may flow from US to global markets for higher return.

At the same time, there is mixed impact on Asia stock markets, especially there is potential higher level of US-China trade war, therefore careful selection of stocks and sectors are critical. China recently has announced massive economic stimulus plans, the scale could be even higher to cope with emerging political economic crisis.

In Year 2025, global stock markets (US, Asia, Europe) may experience new waves of bullish run, especially with various new pro-business regulations by Trump and lower interest rates by the Fed. However, when global stock market reaches a high optimism level, a potential black swan may not be far away. Therefore, a smart investor (eg. Warren Buffett) would Sell High gradually, before Buy Low again during the next global financial crisis.

It is timely now to review own stock portfolio, making decisions (Buy / Hold / Sell / Wait / Shorting) ahead of majority. Ride the next global stock rally with Trump and US interest rate cut, supported by strong global economy.

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There are over 2000 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar, you could ask on any global and local stocks including but not limited to 30 STI component stocks:

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

View quick preview video below, Dr Tee will introduce 10 key stock investment strategies (股票投资十招) to be learned in 4hr free stock webinar:

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market Tagged: economy vs stock, global financial crisis, US Stocks

Trading Strategies for 4 Stages of Technology Stock Bubbles (趁势追击)

Posted on August 16, 2023 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Many investors and traders like US technology stocks which could move up and down like a roller coaster with high potential gains in a shorter time. Similar to driving a car, despite there are many potential risks, a trained driver or stock trader could adopt best practices with experience for a smooth ride.

In general, there are 4 stages of technology stocks bubbles (see image above):
Stage 1
The first peak when technology stocks achieve high Ein55 Optimism > 75%, eg. during Year 2000 dotcom bubble and Year 2021 COVID online bubble.

Technology sector may not go through the entire 4 stages of bubbles. For example, for Year 2000 dotcom bubble, stock market crashed after Stage 1. For Stage 1, similar to surfing with a strong wave, trend-following position trading strategy with S.E.T. (Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices) plan is key, buying with uptrend (eg. higher low higher high, breaking above critical resistance), sell / short selling with downtrend (eg. lower high lower low, breaking below critical support).

Stage 2
If it is a correction (eg. high inflation and interest rate hike in Year 2022), technology stocks would start to recover, eg Year 2023 has been recovering well with AI as the main driver.

Stage 2 has weaker trend than Stage 1, focusing more on recovery wave, usually stock prices need to break above certain patterns (eg. resistance of a double bottom neckline, etc) to sustain its recovery. Short term to mid term cyclic trading may be considered. If Stage 2 could not exceed the last high of Stage 1, then it may form a risky pattern (eg. Head & Shoulders, etc), therefore it is safer to trader than to invest in technology stocks with higher optimism level.

Stage 3
It is possible (although seldom) for technology stocks to achieve another new high than the peak of Stage 1 bubble. If inflation could fall down consistently below 3% while global economy is intact, US technology stocks may continue to recover. However, it may take time, especially No 2 economy, China is getting weaker, would affect global / US economy indirectly. Inflation may be stagnant around 3% +/- 1% for mid term until an economic crisis, only then it may fall down further.

Strategy for Stage 3 is focusing on shorter term trading with positioning sizing, leveraging on market momentum to trade uptrend.

Stage 4
This is the ultimate bubble (may or may not come), much higher peak than Stage 1 with high Ein55 Optimism >75%, mainly driven by stock market greed. The strategy is similar to Stage 1 but closer monitoring (daily) is required.

Besides uptrend trading, an experienced trader may also consider to short sell the market when it is falling down below critical support from high optimism level, potentially gaining from the crash of stock market which may be induced by the next black swan.

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Technology giant stocks are mostly major component stocks of indices, therefore the movement of NASDAQ index (mostly technology stocks, popular ETF is QQQ, 3X of Nasdaq) is also aligned with S&P500 index (500 largest US stocks, popular ETF is SPY). When market is bearish, there are also inverse ETFs for traders who don’t know how to short sell but more suitable for shorter term trading.

In additional to indices, a trader may also consider technology giant stocks, eg. leader (world largest company) is Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), already passing Stages 1 & 2, approaching Stage 3 (but fail to create new resistance above $200).

The current bull run for technology stocks is still intact. However, during each correction, a trader may need to exit first, reenter when trend is reversed to uptrend or when a new high is created.

At the same time, for longer term investors who have invested in technology giant stocks or indices (eg. S&P500 or Nasdaq), may also consider to switch to short term investing (choosing stocks like an investor, buy/sell like a trader) during uncertain high optimism level, no need to take any major risk against potential black swans (eg. China economy slowdown, escalation of Russian-Ukraine war, etc) which stock market may fall more than 50% when the bubble is burst.

In summary, a smart investor or trader would leverage on technology stock bubbles (Stages 1-4) but adjusting the strategy accordingly (eg. shorter term trading with higher optimism level). Stock bubble could be the best friend for trader (trend-following trading with greed) and investor (crisis investing after the market crash with fear).

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There are over 2000 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: technology stock, technology stock bubble, US Stocks

8 AI Technology Stocks for Momentum Trading and Growth Investing (以智取胜)

Posted on July 14, 2023 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

After major correction of technology stocks in Year 2022, the technology sector recovers strongly in 2023 with the support of Artificial Intelligence (AI), initiated by popularity of ChatGPT, following by the healthy competitions and future AI plans of many technology giant stocks, pushing up the stock prices of technology stocks and even entire US stock indices (S&P500 and Nasdaq), nearer to the last peak in late 2021.

As mentioned in earlier Dr Tee articles, Golden Cross of inflation (now 3%) below interest rate (now 5%) help to support recovery of technology stocks which are sensitive to interest rate (likely will reach its peak soon). Since stock market is usually 6-12 months ahead of economy and businesses, a smart investor may take calculated risk with early actions (eg. big winner for those who took actions 6 months ago on technology stocks when inflation starts to fall from its peak).

Investing and trading in stocks may also apply AI (eg. following certain rules) but key difference is to personalize the strategies, eg holding for short term (momentum trading), mid term (cyclic trading) or long term (growth investing).

Dr Tee has shortlisted 8 AI stocks with potential for trading and investing, each stock requires unique positioning due to different types of LOFTP (Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis):

1) Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA)
Nvidia is a bigger winner in AI game as development generative AI requires strong demand of GPU chips, which is dominated by Nvidia. It projects significant increase in near future revenue which supports the share price to break above last high of $335 in Year 2021, exceeding by 50% to $460 so far.

Even before recent AI stock rally, Nvidia already has sustainable strong business fundamental. However, due to stock price is far above fair value with high Ein55 Optimism, it is more suitable for short term momentum trading, following the uptrend prices (eg. entering when breaking a new high, but it is crucial to set stoploss when price trend is reversed more than risk tolerance level).

2) Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT)
Microsoft is another direct AI winner because it is major investor for ChatGPT, even incorporating into BING search engine (challenging Google Search) and Windows 11 platform with Microsoft Office products. As a result, Microsoft share price has recovered back to its 2021 peak of $344, may achieve another new historical high if AI momentum continues.

Microsoft is veteran technology giant stock with over 50 years history since 1970s (comparable with Apple), products are diversified beyond traditional PC into cloud and gaming, etc. Strong business fundamental but it has price exceeding fair value with high Ein55 Optimism, more suitable for mid term cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High) or short term momentum trading (Buy High Sell Higher).

3) Alphabet / Google (Nasdaq: GOOGL/GOOG)
Alphabet has been early AI developer (eg. DeepMind with AlphaGo could win human No 1 Go player in the world) but slow in commercializing the AI products, still focusing more on Google search engine which 85% market share (compared with BING only has 8%) for advertisement revenue (Youtube contributes to about 10% of Alphabet revenue). ChatGPT quick success has helped Google to introduce comparable BARD chat quickly to supplement Google search. It is not too late for BARD to catch up because they have strong foundation in development with wide Google network as potential customers, just need to focus on marketing and commercialization in future, helping to retain or grow the online advertisement revenue.

Relative to other technology / AI giant stocks, Alphabet / Google is relatively slow in stock price recovery (still below its peak of $150 in Year 2021), current price of $124 is near to its fair value, therefore still possible to be considered for long term investor for growth investing (Buy fair price and Hold). At the same time, Alphabet / Google may also be suitable for mid term cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High) or short term momentum trading (Buy High Sell Higher). It is a rare giant stock which may be considered for both long term investors and short/mid term traders. However, since few technology giant stocks could last for decades, it is crucial to monitor its technology advantages over competitors (eg. ChatGPT vs BARD, Google vs BING, etc) for long term investors.

4) Meta / Facebook (Nasdaq: META)
Meta share price was seriously corrected in Year 2022 from about $380 to $90, partly due to venture into unprofitable Metaverse and headwind of technology sector then. Meta is early winner for technology stock recovery in 2023 (another is Netflix), growing with very strong momentum (comparable with Nvidia and Microsoft performances), current price of $313 is still below its 2021 peak of $380.

Even without AI (new plan) or Metaverse (old plan), advertisement revenue for existing Facebook and Instagram could already support and grow the business. The new Threads app is a strong challenger to Twitter, could be future revenue generator, making its social media network even wider (a strong economic moat). Meta share price is still below its fair value of about $360, may be considered for long term growth investor and also short term momentum trader.

5) Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN)
Amazon share price was halved in Year 2022 from about $187 to $85, partly due to high growth during pandemic is not sustainable during post pandemic, business also becomes cyclic, affecting share price stability. Amazon has cloud businesses, AI concept has helped to recover its share prices together with other technology giant stocks, current price of $134 is still below its 2021 peak of $187.

Amazon is a trillion-dollar market cap giant stock (after Apple and Microsoft, ahead of Google and Nvidia), business becomes more sustainable as pre-pandemic. Current share is still below fair value of about $200, therefore may be considered for long term growth investing, mid term cyclic trading or even short term momentum trading.

6) AMD (Nasdaq: AMD)
AMD share price dropped to 1/3 from about $155 to $55 in Year 2022 technology sector crisis, partly due to high growth of chips demand during pandemic is not sustainable during post pandemic, business even suffered losses in the last quarter. Over the last few decades of competition, AMD is stronger and larger than Intel, supporting AMD share price growing by 80 times over the past 10 years. Despite AMD AI chip is still behind leader Nvidia, its latest chips are widely used by cloud platforms (eg. Amazon). AMD price has recovered strongly, current price of $115 is still below its 2021 peak of $155.

AMD is a young technology giant stock which would benefit from future AI sector expansion. Current share is still below fair value of about $200, therefore may be considered for long term growth investing, mid term cyclic trading or even short term momentum trading.

7) TSMC (NYSE: TSM / Taiwan TPE: 2330)
TSMC share price was corrected by more than half from about $140 to $63 in Year 2022 technology sector crisis, partly due to high growth of chips demand during pandemic is not sustainable during post pandemic, but business remains profitable with more sustainable growth rate. TSMC is the world leader for high end chip manufacturing (eg. 3nm), far ahead of competitors Samsung and Intel. With help of Warren Buffett (despite he sold it eventually due to worry of geo-political crisis) and technology sector rally, TSMC price has recovered strongly, current price of $105 is still below its 2022 peak of $140.

Semiconductor sector is cyclic in nature, similar for TSMC share price, more suitable to Buy Low Sell High for cyclic investor. Current share price is higher than fair price of about $80, therefore more suitable for mid term cyclic investing (not long term due to higher Ein55 Optimism) or even short term trading (since momentum is relatively weaker, may consider to Buy Low Sell High with short term swing trading).

8) ASML (Nasdaq: ASML)
Semiconductor sector is very specialized and inter-dependent, eg. design by Nvidia, manufacturing by TSMC but leading equipment supplier is ASML, etc. ASML business and even share price performances are comparable to TSMC since both are closely related.

ASML share price was corrected by more than half from about $868 to $379 in Year 2022 technology sector crisis, partly due to high growth of chips demand during pandemic is not sustainable during post pandemic, but business remains profitable with more sustainable growth rate. ASML is the world leader for high end chip equipment (eg. lithography for 3nm), far ahead of other competitors. US/China trade war may affect its future business expansion in China due to new export ban for high tech semiconductor equipment. Together with technology sector rally, ASML price has doubled from valley, current price of $750 is getting nearer to its 2022 peak of $868.

Semiconductor sector is cyclic in nature, similar for ASML share price, more suitable to Buy Low Sell High for cyclic investor. Current share price is higher than fair price of about $470, therefore more suitable for mid term cyclic investing (not long term due to higher Ein55 Optimism) or even short term trading (since momentum is relatively weaker, may consider to Buy Low Sell High with short term swing trading).

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Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Market Optimism, Market Outlook, Technical Analysis Tagged: cyclic investing stock, growth stock, momentum stock, technology stock, US Stocks

Bullish Tech Stocks with Golden Cross of Inflation vs Interest Rate (黄金交叉)

Posted on June 15, 2023 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

US stock market is recovering gradually over the past 6 months with clearance of debt ceiling issue recently, greed is overtaking fear. In particular, US large-cap technology stocks have been bullish, supported by golden cross of inflation (4% currently) below interest rate (5.25% currently), confirming the declining trend of inflation from the peak of 9.1%.

Technology stocks are sensitive to interest rate hike (which is dependent on inflation), therefore the tech sector was severely corrected over 30-50% in Year 2022, seeing light at the end of tunnel 6 months ago when inflation starts to fall. The Fed has been using higher inflation rate (eg. 6-9%) as an excuse to increase interest rate but the fact is inflation is a lagging indicator which is CPI (Consumer Price Index) % change over the past 1 year. Monthly CPI has been slowing down, therefore yearly CPI change (i.e. inflation rate) is declining naturally, the trend likely will continue till Q3/2023 with inflation rate below 3%. With inflation at moderate level of 4%, The Fed decides to pause on interest rate hike (remain at 5.25%) but keeping options of 2 further hikes by end of this year when needed.

Consistent lower inflation provides an excellent mid-term trading opportunity, especially for large-cap US technology stocks, here are familiar companies (FANG-MAN):
F – Facebook / Meta (NASDAQ: Meta)
A – Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN)
N – Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX)
G – Google / Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOGL / GOOG)
M – Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT)
A – Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)
N – NVidia (Nasdaq: NVDA)

These 7 tech stocks contribute to over 25% of US S&P 500 Index, 5 of them are over $1 Trillion market (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, NVdia), even Apple alone (nearly $3 Trillions) is bigger than 30 STI component stocks combined. However, strong recovery of S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices may give a false impression that most stocks are doing well. In fact, many non-technology small / mid cap stocks are still relatively weak, these 7 FANG-MAN stocks have relatively bigger weightage, therefore investors / traders selectively buy up technology stocks, help to push up the index as a whole.

Alignment with the right sector and country (Level Analysis) is key for stock trading, therefore it is not surprise to see technology stocks with uptrend prices (higher highs, higher lows), ideal for trading or even investing. However, due to moderate higher Ein55 Optimism level, current stock market recovery (especially for technology stocks) is more suitable for short term / mid term trading. A smart investor may apply trend-following trading system to ride the trend but need to be careful when it enters high Ein55 Optimism level (eg. >75%) as any unexpected black swan could result in the next global financial crisis, knowing when to exit (take profits) is critical as the next move.

US economy currently is relatively strong with low unemployment rate (3.7% currently), weaker USD would help in financial reports for many S&P 500 companies with overseas businesses (when converting income to USD). So, average inflation level (2-4%) is healthy for a growing economy, too high results in overheated spending, too low ends up in lagging economy (eg. lost 3 decades in Japan). Based on similar experience of last high inflation in 1970-1980, there was upside potential of over 50% for US indices when inflation was declining from the peak. Stock market usually is 6-12 months ahead of economy or business fundamentals, therefore forward-looking views may be needed for success in trading.

There is information overflow each day with good/bad financial news, therefore each investor needs to have own independent thinking (not to blindly follow Dr Doom or Dr Boom), following an investing / trading strategy aligning with own personality (short term / mid term / long term / lifetime).

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Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Uncategorized Tagged: inflation, technology stock, US Stocks

Top 4 Crisis Defender Dividend Stocks (抗压存股)

Posted on May 12, 2022 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Global stock markets experienced mini dotcom bubble with over 30%-50% major correction in technology stocks, especially in US Nasdaq and Hong Kong. Both long term investors and short term traders are worried of high inflation over 8%, interest rate hike (may exceed 3% in 1 year), Russia-Ukraine War (higher commodity prices) which contribute to declining stock prices. A potential black swan may spread the fears in technology stocks to most sectors, resulting in a global financial crisis.

Instead of worrying about uncertain markets, a smart investor and trader may consider strong dividend giant stocks with protection by defensive sector business, a natural way to hedge against high inflation with interest rate hike while collecting growing passive incomes in a steady way.

In recent 13th Ein55 Charity Course on Global Dividend Stocks, we have raised fund of $21,700 for Tzu Chi Singapore to help needy families in Singapore. Under the spirit of charity, Dr Tee decides to share 4 defensive dividend stocks in 4 countries of 3 defensive sectors (banking & finance, utilities, oil & gas) with readers as defenders in current bearish stock markets (read each details in this article to fully understand on how to position in these giant stocks):

1) Singapore Dividend Bank Stock – OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)

2) Malaysia Dividend Bank Stock – Public Bank (Bursa: 1295)

3) Hong Kong Dividend Utility Stock – CK Infrastructure / CKI (HKEx: 1038)

4) US Dividend Oil & Gas Stock – Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD)

The best time to invest in global dividend giant stocks is always during global stock crisis (eg. Year 2020-2021 during pandemic, 2008—2009 during subprime crisis, etc), not only able to maximize the dividend yield (due to lower entry share price), also could have higher potential of capital gains (when market cycle moves from fear in low optimism to greed in high optimism). Dividend stock investing is not based on stock strategy (Buy & Hold for dividends) alone, may be integrated with cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High), growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains), swing / momentum trading (Buy & Hold for short term / medium term gains), defensive investing and other Ein55 strategies.

However, not all the high dividend yield stocks (potential value trap) are suitable for dividend investing. A growing business in the past may not be sustainable during COVID-19 period and a dividend stock may not able to continue the payment of dividend. Similarly, even a dividend stock may have strong and sustainable business but if share prices is bearish due to emotional stock market or declining sector, it may not be a good choice for investors to Buy Low (prices may get lower in short term), integration with trading or alignment with promising sectors would help for a smooth entry.

Fundamental Analysis alone is not sufficient, a low PB or low PE or high dividend yield stock may be a value trap as this may be the result of lower share price with weakening businesses. Therefore, deeper analysis is required with LOFTP (Level, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical, Personal Analysis) Strategies.

Let’s learn these 4 giant dividend stocks from 3 promising sectors (banks, utilities, oil & gas) as defenders in 4 countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong and US), understanding the business nature, investment clock and unique strategy.

1) Singapore Dividend Bank Stock – OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)

With rising interest rates globally, bank sector would earn more in interest income (mainly through higher net interest margin, NIM). With accelerated pandemic recovery, banks would also make more profits in non-interest incomes (eg. insurance, credit card, investment, fund management).

So, giant bank stocks usually are good choices for dividend stocks as defenders during bearish market but they could change position as a striker with higher capital gains when stock market is bullish.

OCBC has nearly 100 years of business with merging and acquisition of many banks, supported by major shareholder, Lee Family, as well as an important subsidiary (contributing to about 30% earnings of OCBC), Great Eastern (SGX: G07), an insurance giant stock which has over 100 years of proven operations. Both giant stocks have experienced numerous stock market “crisis” over the past decades, survival-of-the-fittest principle is fully demonstrated, not comparable by any new rising star or promising IPO stock with limited history.

OCBC has strong business performance, after 60% dividend cap during FY2020 is lifted, dividend yield is back to 4.5%, highest among the 3 major Singapore Banks (OCBC, DBS, UOB), partly due to more undervalue in share prices. Over the past 10 years, OCBC has increased dividends payment by 2.5X times, assuming similar performance in the next 10 years, dividend yield could increase to about 10% for long term investors.

OCBC is still at moderate low Ein55 Optimism (<50%) but recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $13/share (about 8% potential upside in medium term) or over $15/share when market emotion may be greedy again. The stock is well balanced, suitable for dividend investing (Buy & Hold for dividend), growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains), but not for cyclic investing (near to fair price) nor trading when trend is still sideways.

OCBC Bank is an all-rounded stock but an investor or trader may need diversification over a portfolio of 10-20 giant stocks in 3 sectors of 3 countries, not to buy only 1 giant stock (concentration risk).

2) Malaysia Dividend Bank Stock – Public Bank (Bursa: 1295)

Similar as Singapore, Malaysia bank stocks also benefit from rising interest rates and reopening of economy, especially the international borders are widely opened to tourists.

Public Bank is one of a few remaining private banks (another is Hong Leong Bank, Bursa: 5819) in Malaysia with strong growing businesses. Public Bank is very prudent in expenses, staff cost is one of the lowest among the peers. It also has an insurance giant stock (LPI, Bursa: 8621) as subsidiary.

Relative to OCBC and peers in Singapore, Public Bank is moderate in dividend payment (about 3.3% dividend based on current share prices) but stronger in growth and high cyclic potential due to share prices heavily discounted over the past few years with lagging Malaysia economy.

Public Bank is still at moderate low Ein55 Optimism (<50%) but recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $6/share (about 30% potential upside in medium term). The stock is well balanced, suitable for dividend investing (Buy & Hold for dividend), growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains), cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High) and even trading when price is back to uptrend in short term.

Public Bank is an all-rounded stock but an investor or trader may need diversification over a portfolio of 10-20 giant stocks in 3 sectors of 3 countries, not to buy only 1 giant stock (concentration risk).

3) Hong Kong Dividend Utility Stock – CK Infrastructure / CKI (HKEx: 1038)

Utilities sector has defensive business (eg. power or water supplies with fixed rates for several years), therefore able to generate consistent dividends, even during a bearish stock market.

CKI is under CKH (HKEX: 1), both are Hang Seng Index component stocks with major sponsor, Li Ka-shing, the richest person in Hong Kong. CKI also owns Power Assets (HKEx: 6) and Hong Kong Electric, as well as global utilities businesses, contributing to dividend yield of 4.7% (based on current share prices), a defensive stock popular among Hong Kong investors, especially with bearish stock market driven by ATM (Alibaba / Tencent / Meituan) and other technology stocks.

CKI is still at low Ein55 Optimism (<25%) but recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $80/share (about 60% potential upside in medium term). The stock is well balanced, suitable for dividend investing (Buy & Hold for dividend), growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains), cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High) and even trading when price is back to uptrend in short term.

CKI is an all-rounded stock but an investor or trader may need diversification over a portfolio of 10-20 giant stocks in 3 sectors of 3 countries, not to buy only 1 giant stock (concentration risk).

4) US Dividend Oil & Gas Stock – Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD)

Oil & Gas sector usually has cyclic business but commodity prices at higher optimism are supporting the giant stocks in oil & gas with stronger business. EPD is a special oil & gas stock with defensive business in midstream sector on delivery of crude oil and natural gas. The earnings and cashflows are stable as business based on future contracts, less sensitive to volatile oil & gas prices.

Russia-Ukraine war has pushed the commodity prices to new high while demand for delivery of oil & gas would be more. Even when one day oil price may fall to lower optimism, EPD could still generate passive incomes which dividend payment has been consistent over the past few decades, currently dividend yield is 6.9% (about 4.3% net dividend yield after over 38% withholding tax to US government).

EPD is under MLP business model which can maximize dividend without corporate level tax, paying dividend 4 times each year, behaving like a REIT (both are required to pay 90% incomes as dividends to shareholders).

EPD is still at moderate low Ein55 Optimism (<50%) but recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $30/share (about 30% potential upside in medium term). The stock is well balanced, suitable for dividend investing (Buy & Hold for dividend), growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains), cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High) and even trading when price is back to uptrend in short term.

EPD is an all-rounded stock but an investor or trader may need diversification over a portfolio of 10-20 giant stocks in 3 sectors of 3 countries, not to buy only 1 giant stock (concentration risk).

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Commodity Market, Fundamental Analysis, Macroeconomy, Market Optimism, Stock Market Tagged: bank stock, Charity Course, dividend stock, Hong Kong Market, oil & gas, US Stocks

Integration of Long Term Growth Investing and Short Term Momentum Trading Strategies

Posted on September 13, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In this Dr Tee 2hr video education (Integration of Long Term Growth Investing and Short Term Momentum Trading Strategies), interactive webinar hosted by IFAST Global Markets, you will learn:

1) Global Stock Market Outlook
– US and Singapore (Views in Long Term, Medium Term and Short Term)
– Hong Kong / China (“Common Prosperity”, HK technology stocks correction)

2) Impact of Political Economy on Global Stock Markets
– Macroeconomy factors such as interest rate hike, QE (>US$2 Trillions) activation and tapering, etc.

3) Integration of Long Term Growth Investing and Short Term Momentum Trading Strategies
– LOFTP: Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis

4) Giant Stocks (Long Term Investing vs Short Term Trading) for 4 Growing Sectors
– Finance Sector Giant Stock
– Technology Giant Stock
– Consumer Discretionary Stock
– Healthcare Giant Stock

5) Q&A with Live Zoom Audience

Here is Dr Tee Free 2-hr Video Education. Enjoy and give your comments for improvement.

View Dr Tee Video Here (switch on sound before viewing):
https://www.facebook.com/ifastgm/videos/6780231118669132/

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

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Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Stock Market, Trading Tagged: growth stock, investing strategies, momentum stock, US Stocks

4 Growth Investing and Momentum Trading Stocks (四大天王)

Posted on August 31, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In this Dr Tee 2hr video education (4 Growth Investing and Momentum Trading Stocks), you will learn:
1) US and Singapore Stock Market Outlook
– Short term, medium term & long term

2) LOFTP Investing Strategies for Growth Investing and Momentum Trading
– Level Analysis (L1 Stock, L1 Sector, L3 Country, L4 World)
– Optimism Analysis (0-100%)
– Fundamental Analysis (Strong / Weak)
– Technical Analysis (Follow-trend / Counter-trend)
– Personal Analysis (Short Term Trading / Long Term Investing)

3) 4 US & Singapore Giant Stocks from 4 Promising Sectors
– US Giant Finance Stock: BlackRock (NYSE: BLK)
– US Giant Technology Stock: Alphabet / Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL)
– Singapore Giant Luxury Stock: The Hour Glass (SGX: AGS)
– Singapore Giant Healthcare Stock: Tianjin Zhongxin (SGX: T14)

4) Long Term Growth Investing vs Short Term Trading Strategies
– Growth Investing (Buy Low & Hold, Long Term)
– Cyclic Investing (Buy Low Sell High, Long Term)
– Momentum Trading (Buy Low Sell High, Buy High Sell Higher, Short Term)

5) Bonus: Discussions on 7 related giant stocks (only for those who view entire 2hr video)
– Hong Kong Technology Crisis Stocks: Alibaba (HKEX: Baba) and Tencent (HKEX: 700)
– US Giant Fund Stock: Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK)
– Singapore Property Crisis Stock: Hongkong Land (SGX: H78)
– Singapore Giant Bank Stocks: DBS Bank (SGX: D05), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11)

Here is Dr Tee Free 2-hr Video Course. Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks.

Dr Tee Video Course: https://youtu.be/5mDIXIsLB3k

Past readers could have profited with over 50% rally in share price if have taken actions during pandemic on similar giant stocks such as BlackRock, Alphabet (Google), The Hour Glass, Tianjin Zhongxin, and many others. No one could change the past but you could still change the future if taking action to learn now!

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: growth stock, momentum stock, Singapore Stocks, US Stocks

3 Singapore Bank Stocks (DBS, OCBC, UOB) vs Signature Bank 3X Profits (无名小卒)

Posted on August 5, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Many readers have benefited from Dr Tee past 200 educational articles during pandemic, including making over 50% profits from 3 Singapore major bank stocks: DBS Bank, OCBC Bank and UOB Bank, which continue the strong momentum of prices with growing business.

However, the big money is usually with hidden giant stock (无名小卒), Dr Tee Graduates could see the opportunity 1 year ago in Signature Bank (NASDAQ: SBNY) with 3X potential profits gained so far, outperforming 50% rally of 3 Singapore major bank stocks.

Let’s learn further from Dr Tee on the journey of successes for these 4 giant bank stocks, including how to position in other remaining Top 100 global giant bank stocks. A review of latest financial reports, stock prices, Ein55 intrinsic values and Optimism levels will be given.

With pandemic recovery over the last 1 year, 3 Singapore major bank stocks, DBS Bank (SGX: D05), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39) and UOB Bank (SGX: U11) have recovered both in share prices (50% rally from lower optimism levels to about fair values of mid optimism currently) and also businesses, since Q2/2020 circuit breaker period.

In the recent interim financial reports of H1/2021, all 3 Singapore giant bank stocks continue to report better earnings than the 6-12 months ago, partly due to growing businesses and lower allowance for NPL (Non-Performing Loans), supported by strong Singapore GDP growth (14.3% in Q2/2021), aligned with rapid global economy recovery (US GDP growth by 6.5% in Q2/2021).

Despite lower interest rate income due to lower NIM (Net Interest Margin), overall bank sector businesses (including investment, wealth management, credit card, insurance, etc) are profitable. Despite US treasury bond yield is getting lower over the past few months with less pressure on bank interest rate hike, global bank stocks still have positive outlook because of non-interest rate income is growing more rapidly. Higher global inflation rates may also accelerate the pace of central banks of major economies to increase interest rates which will be favorable to giant bank stocks.

From the table below, we may observe that 3 Singapore major bank stocks have comparable results, all are suitable as mid-fielders for both capital gains and passive incomes (dividend). In fact, they contribute to about 30% of Singapore STI Index, therefore the price trends are generally aligned with STI which is near to fair value of mid optimism level.

4 Giant Bank Stocks	ROE (%)	DY (%)	PB
DBS Bank (SGX: D05)	8.6	2.8	1.5
OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)	7.2	2.5	1.2
UOB Bank (SGX: U11)	6.9	2.9	1.2
Signature Bank (NASDAQ: SBNY)	9.0	0.9	1.9

As expected, MAS recently announced to waive the 60% dividend payment cap of 3 Singapore major bank stocks, implying the potential of dividend yield in FY2021 could be increased by 100/60 = 67%, from current 2.5-3% to 4-5%. This is partially confirmed by recent announcement of interim dividends, back to FY2019 level before pandemic, likely will be higher for next 6 months if higher earnings by end of 2021 as usually 50% earnings (DBS and UOB) will be paid as dividend while OCBC is about 45% dividend payout ratio (more reserves for growth).

This confirmation by MAS is an important news for long term investors who aim for passive incomes, despite the best time to invest in these 3 banks stocks was in the worst time of pandemic during Q2-Q3/2020, eg. OCBC at about $8+/share while DBS and UOB below $20/share, shared by Dr Tee over the past 1 year of free public webinars (www.ein55.com) and articles, action takers could enjoy fruits of 6-7% dividend yield now, on top of over 50% capital gains over the past 1 year of pandemic recovery. This is much better than “safe” investment of keeping money as cash in banks for 0.3% interest rate or even Singapore Savings Bond of 0.5% return for the first year.

Currently, Singapore STI and 3 Singapore bank stocks are showing mid bullish trend but not strong enough for traders. A key trading signal is breakout of 3200 points resistance of STI, requiring support of other 27 STI component stocks. Traditionally, Aug is month for Ex-dividend date of many STI component stocks, therefore if Aug could achieve a monthly positive gain for STI, is a strong signal for DBS Bank, OCBC Bank and UOB Bank.

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Many investors like to invest in bank stocks with BIG names but big size or most famous stock may not always be the best, eg. Hong Kong largest bank, HSBC Bank (HKEX: 0005) is a weak bank stock. Even an investor may run of idea of What to Buy, may refer to earlier Dr Tee article on Top 100 Bank Stocks in the world:

https://www.ein55.com/2021/03/top-100-singapore-and-global-bank-stocks-to-profit/

Both 3 Singapore major banks and Signature Bank (#76 in the long list) are listed as Top 100 Bank stocks. If bank stock interested by reader is not listed, may need to do more in-depth analysis before investing. Signature Bank is comparable in size with 3 Singapore banks but still considered small relative to big names in wall street, therefore gaining little attention from global investors who probably know more about JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) or even weaker bank stocks such as Citi Group (NYSE: C).

Signature Bank is a commercial bank with business mainly in state of New York (USA) and a few other states. So, it is relatively not known to global investors, few Asian investors may know how to invest in this hidden giant stock. Despite the businesses are strong with consistent growth over the past decade, after share prices reaching high Ein55 Optimism level of about $140 in Year 2017, starting to correct to lower optimism, reaching low optimism level of around $70/share during 2020 pandemic, which is 50% discount in share price but value becomes higher each year. The best “crisis” stock is when value is doubled but price is halved but few people could bridge between fundamental and technical worlds which needs more insights.

Dr Tee assigned Signature Bank as homework to Ein55 graduates during Aug 2020, possible to enter initially with contrarian investing (average down will falling in share prices) when share price less than $90 or with average up above $100 after the breakout from double bottom (see optimism chart of Signature Bank) or trend-following momentum trading from $100+ to $200+ in a few months. Even for long term investor (Buy & Hold), Signature Bank has grown over 12 times in share prices over the past 2 decades but it requires strong control of emotions, especially to hold through global financial crisis with significant price correction.

In Jan 2021 Ein55 Graduates Gathering Webinar, Dr Tee shared this giant stock again, despite at around $140, the stock continues to surge till high Ein55 Optimism of $255/share, potential 2 to 3 times profits for those who could Buy at Low Optimism (below $100) and Sell at High Optimism (about above $200). In July 2021 Ein55 Gathering Webinar, Dr Tee has shared another healthcare giant stock which has surged over 20% in 1 month since then (will be reported in future).

There is little “luck” in stock investment, each of the fruit of investment is action taking by readers who could take calculated risks, applying strategy aligning with own personality. A real trader and investor has to take further action: Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait or Shorting with independent thinking. Without action taking, a reader is only a ‘knowledge collector”, knowing why or how but could not generate any profit.

Many investors know the secret of making money is Buy Low Sell High but if purely based on price action (i.e. Technical Analysis), the probability of success may not be high, especially Buy Low may Get Lower. Success in Signature Bank requires integration of Ein55 styles of investing, especially with LOFTP Strategies: Level, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical and Personal Analysis, sharing regularly in hundreds of Dr Tee educational articles in the past decade.

Unlike 3 Singapore major banks, Signature Bank is more suitable for cyclic investing (then become momentum trading) with support by strong growing businesses. Since the current share prices have reached high optimism level with sideways share prices, potential traders may need to wait for stronger signal or consider other Top 100 global bank stocks in earlier list, some still have over 50% upside potential of share prices.

Bank stocks are cyclical in nature, therefore the best time to invest in a giant bank stock is usually during the recovery phase from global or regional financial crisis. Even an investor may miss the last 1 year of pandemic stock crisis to Buy Low Sell Fair Price, not to miss the next few years with opportunity for giant bank stocks moving from fair prices to greedy prices at high optimism levels. After that, the next Black Swan would wait to reset the global stock market again with a new Global Financial Crisis, usually over 50% discount in stock indices. Instead of waiting for sky to fall down one day (wasting the opportunity cost of time which could be several years), a more practical approach is to apply trend-following strategy to ride the uptrend of global giant stocks during bullish stock market.

There are many other global giant stocks prepared to surge with pandemic recovery, are you ready to become their business partners as a stock investor?

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: bank stock, dbs bank, dividend stock, growth stock, US Stocks

Oil & Gas Stocks (Singapore, US, Hong Kong) with 100% Profit (火上加油)

Posted on June 14, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Crude oil crashed to negative price 1 year ago, how many of you dare to buy oil or related stocks when others were fearful? Everyone knows “Buy Low Sell High” is the secret to make money in investment but in practice, not many people able to pluck the low-hanging fruits.

In this article, you will learn from Dr Tee on Giant Oil & Stocks of 3 Countries (over 100% profits in the past 1 year) for longer term investing and / or short term trading with COVID-19 recovery stock rally. Bonus for readers who could read every word of the entire article, learning unique strategy to position in each giant stocks, including Ein55 Optimism level and Ein55 Intrinsic Value.

1) US Giant Oil & Gas Funds

Energy Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE ARCA: XLE) / US Oil Fund (NYSE ARCA: USO)

– 100% capital gains after oil price surged over 3 times in last 1 year

2) Singapore Giant Oil & Gas Stock: Union Gas Holdings (SGX: 1F2)

– over 100% profit since sharing in 5 months after sharing with Ein55 graduates & public webinars

3) Hong Kong / China Giant Oil & Gas Stock: Kunlun Energy Company (HKEX: 135)

– over 30% special dividend yield and over 20% capital gains since Ex-Dividend on 31 May 2021

Crude oil is a major commodity, therefore a giant by default (similar to property market which is also a form of commodity) as it is not possible for the world to live without energy supply. Crude oil experienced bearish market due to natural market cycle since Year 2014 when WTI crude oil prices fell from high optimism of over US$100/barrel to low optimism of US$20/barrel, even crashed to negative price (only for 1 day due to abnormal oil futures contract, mostly from USO oil fund) during pandemic in Apr 2020.

For cyclic giant such as crude oil and related Oil & Gas stocks, the entire market was reborn after the worst time of negative oil price. OPEC and non-OPEC oil producer countries learn to collaborate to stabilize the oil price during this crisis of century. Since then, oil price and related stocks start to rebound from low Ein55 Optimism but mainly limited to long term value investors. During recovery of pandemic over the past 1 year with more energy consumption (industries, transportation, household, etc), oil price and related stocks have gone up steadily, even approaching fair prices with mid Ein55 Optimism. With support of more short term traders who join the game recently (火上加油), oil and gas stocks are enjoying strong uptrend momentum in prices.

A giant stock may not need to be big in size, even a small company could be a giant stock. There are hundreds of Oil & Gas stocks globally but some could be junk stocks, Buy Low may become lower in share prices with declining businesses. Let’s study Global Giant Oil & Gas Stocks (following Dr Tee criteria), some are recovering from lower optimism in 3 global stock exchanges interested by readers:

1) US Giant Oil & Gas Funds

Energy Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE ARCA: XLE) / US Oil Fund (NYSE ARCA: USO)

There is no direct way of investing in crude oil market, some investors may consider either investing through oil futures fund, eg. United States Oil ETF (NYSE ACRA: USO) or Energy Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE ARCA: XLE).

USO oil fund applies rollover of WTI oil futures contracts to invest in oil indirectly. Due to Contango in most of the time over the past few years, USO has underperformed actual oil price due to the additional loss (reducing overall capital gains) when rollover to future contracts with higher prices. However, current oil futures is under Backwardation, rollover of monthly futures contracts with lower prices would give extra capital gains, therefore higher probability of winning for trading crude oil with USO.

During pandemic in Q2 2020, WTI fell to $20/barrel, an investor may apply average down strategy (see earlier educational article by Dr Tee during the worst time of pandemic: https://www.ein55.com/2020/03/10-bullets-of-crude-oil-uso-etf-investing/), even if following oil prices to $0 (excluding negative price), average entry price is only $10/barrel (average of $20 + $15 + $10 + $5 + $0), now is already over $70/barrel, over 7 times.

Even if an investor invested in WTI oil price at the highest price of low optimism level, $20/barrel, the corresponding USO fund price was about $33/unit (after 8 to 1 stock consolidation), current price is about $48/unit (with WTI price of about $70/barrel), nearly 50% capital gains (not comparable with actual 3X oil price gains from $20/barrel to $70/barrel, mainly due to USO huge loss during negative oil price and Contango period).

If reading most blogs or analysts reports during pandemic in Q2/2020 after negative oil price, most would write with hindsight that USO was in trouble, may even go bankrupt. Interest in Oil & Gas stocks was very low as well with so many bad news on crude oil market in the past. In fact, this was a perfect time for oil & gas giant stock investing, especially for a few with strong business, supported by dividend yield over 10% (only known to Ein55 graduates), possible for contrarian investing with average down strategy to Buy Low, collecting quarterly dividend while waiting for the light at the end of tunnel for stock recovery to Sell High one day (currently is only a fair price for crude oil and related giant stocks).

After 1 year later, for investors who could take action with calculated risk on USO (despite this is not perfect for oil investing) or Oil & Gas giant stocks, they are rewarded now. For those who are still thinking or analyzing today (when others are not fearful anymore on oil market), the upside is limited, unless following short term momentum trading.

An alternative to oil futures fund or giant stock investing is to invest in a portfolio of large cap stocks (may not be giant stocks), diversifying the unsystematic business risks. SPDR fund for Energy Sector Index (XLE) consists of big oil & gas companies such as Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX), etc. These oil & gas stocks are too big to fail (although may not be true all the time but unlikely for all to go bankrupt together), having more reserves to last through the winter time with low Ein55 Optimism oil prices. XLE fund portfolio is supported by integrated oil businesses (upstream oil exploration, midstream oil delivery and storage, downstream oil refinery and processing).

When WTI oil price was $20/barrel, assuming an investor invested in XLE (was about $28/unit), potential capital gains so far is 100%, 2X with XLE at about $55/unit. XLE could be a better option than USO for longer term investing as it is supported indirectly by big Oil & Gas companies (may not be giant stocks, following Dr Tee criteria) with interests affected by oil prices. USO is fine for shorter term trading unless during Backwardation period with additional capital gains.

Current Brent or WTI crude oil price of $70+/barrel is still below the Ein55 Intrinsic Value of about $80+/barrel. When there is market greed (common for cyclic commodity market), there is further potential to go beyond $100+/barrel, especially with weaker US Dollar and strong global economy during pandemic recovery after global vaccination. If so, a smart investor would know when to exit, taking profits at high Ein55 Optimism, waiting for the next market cycle to profit from crude oil and related stocks again.

For conservative investors, it is fine to exit earlier with fair price (after Buy Low last time), converting Oil & Gas stocks to cash (as future investment opportunity fund) or Change Horse to other more defensive dividend giant stocks in the phase 2 (greedy market cycle) of stock market. Cash is King when used at the right time (usually during bearish market with low Ein55 Optimism such as Year 2020 pandemic), an investor has to know when to convert between stocks and cash.

2) Singapore Giant Oil & Gas Stock: Union Gas Holdings (SGX: 1F2)

There are only about 40 Oil & Gas giant stocks globally, excluding marginal giant stocks with familiar names such as Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4). In fact, many Oil & Gas giant stocks are small and medium cap stocks, businesses have been growing steadily even with bearish WTI crude oil prices over the past 6 years, falling from $100/barrel to $20/barrel to negative prices. Value is what you get (barrel of crude oil) and price is what you pay, therefore abnormal negative price (seller has to pay to buyer) could not last over 1 day. It can be risky to invest in non-giant oil & gas stocks, especially in Singapore, Buy Low may get lower or even potentially going bankrupt in business, losing everything.

Union Gas is a young Oil & Gas Giant stock in Singapore (4 years after IPO) but having over 40 years of business in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas), business performance has been excellent before and after IPO till now, potential to expand from Singapore to other Southeast Asian countries. Major shareholder (Teo family) has over 70% ownership, paying steady dividend to themselves and also to other shareholders. However, Union Gas share price was stagnant since IPO until last 1 year of pandemic (crisis as opportunity due to higher demand for LPG when people staying longer at home), starting to break above low optimism level of $0.30/share, going up steadily.

When Dr Tee assigned this homework to Ein55 Graduates in Jan 2021, main strategy was positioning for trading with entry share price at $0.53/share or above after each intermediate price breakout. The stock has gone up a few rounds over the past 5 months, trend-following trading may be applied, especially for giant stock at higher optimism with support by growing business in a promising sector with strong global economy. Based on current price of $1.10 on 14 June 2021 (another 10% rally today), it has doubled its share price with 100% profits.

Union Gas is both a growth stock for long term investing and momentum stock for short term trading. Dr Tee has used the same stock as case study in free 4hr monthly webinars (www.ein55.com) over the past few months, even a trader may enter halfway at $0.80+, potential gains so far is already over 30%. For shorter term trading of giant stocks, it is crucial to include S.E.T. (Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices) in trading plan.

Union Gas is one of over 200 stocks in Singapore Catalist Market, mostly are penny stocks (many have weak business fundamentals), only 5 stocks have over $1/share price. However, some strong price penny stocks in the past may not be sustainable in future. For example, both UG Healthcare Corporation (SGX: 8K7) and Medtecs International Corporation (SGX: 546) from Catalist market were over $1/share, now back to penny stock (below $1/share) after the market greed has subsided for pandemic beneficiary stocks. Those speculators who chase after the high prices would suffer huge loss when the momentum is stopped one day.

In the last rally of global stock market, usually penny stocks including many junk stocks would go to higher optimism level, speculators may buy up (especially when stock prices rising over 2-10 times) without consideration of businesses, ignorant of price vs value. Sadly to say, this group of speculators (mainly applying tips strategy in action taking) may make some pocket money with over small gains of 10-20% but eventually may need to pay back over big losses of 50-90% to Mr Market when show hands at wrong time with more capitals in future trades of junk stocks with consideration of prices alone (happened several times before, including penny stock crisis many years ago with Blumont (SGX: A33), LionGold (SGX: A78), etc.

3) Hong Kong / China Giant Oil & Gas Stock: Kunlun Energy Company (HKEX: 135)

Kunlun Energy was a Temasek stock who was lucky to sell the stocks many years ago while the stock prices falling from peak of over $16/share in Year 2013 to $4/share during pandemic 2020. In fact, Kunlun Energy has been a little giant stock under giant parent company, PetroChina (HKEX: 857), No 2 largest Oil & Gas stock in the world. Kunlun is a small cap company with integrated LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) businesses.

Kunlun Energy has strong business fundamental but share prices have been affected by bearish crude oil and natural gas prices. Natural gas usually is a byproduct of crude oil drilling, therefore both Oil & Gas stocks are strongly correlated in both businesses and share prices within similar sector, despite the applications are different. Even the future world may not need crude oil one day, becoming 100% green energy, still needs natural gas to produce electricity.

So, popularity of electric vehicles would not eliminate traditional energy sources of crude oil and natural gas. Buying technology giant stocks such as Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is mainly investing in future (pretty picture with higher uncertainty), while buying Oil & Gas giant stocks, are based on proven current business (low-hanging fruits). An investor may make decision with known facts (which sometimes may last for decades, no need to predict into future which may not come within one’s lifetime.

Over the last 1 year of pandemic, Kunlun Energy recovers in share prices from $4/share to over $9/share with over 100% capital gains. Over the past few months, Dr Tee has shared Kunlun Energy with both Ein55 Graduates and monthly free 4hr public webinars (www.ein55.com), those who take actions recently could profit in both one-time special dividend yield of 32% (mainly due to disposal of an asset) and over 20% capital gains since Ex-Dividend on 31 May 2021 till now.

Kunlun Energy is still a momentum stock for trading, certain trading platform may not adjust for 32% dividend yield on 31 May 2021, then investor has to take note of the 30% price ($9 to $6) differences. It may also be considered for longer term investing (current price is still near to low Ein55 optimism level) with Ein55 Intrinsic Value nearly $18. However, this stock is highly cyclical, may not be suitable for low risk tolerance investor (even Temasek sold it in the last bearish cycle), despite business fundamental is excellent with strong sponsor (PetroChina), share price could fluctuate more than indices.

Volatility could be friend for traders while low optimism (price lower than value) could be friend for investors. So, an investor has to confirm PA (Personal Analysis), aligning the investing strategies with own unique personality (eg. short term trading or long term investing). PA is an anchor point to avoid drifting of position due to emotional stock market. “Copy and Paste” of other people’s best stocks or successes may not work without internalization.

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Due to sector rotation with weakening of USD, commodity market is recovering steadily from low optimism in last few years, now approaching mid optimism of fair value, attracting potential short term traders to follow the uptrend prices of commodity stocks (oil & gas, agricultural, precious metals, etc).

Value investor has option to enter these lower Ein55 Optimism stocks at much lower prices (Buy Low Sell High) with contrarian investing (supporting by high dividend yield). Short term traders would enter at much higher prices (Buy high sell higher), following trends.

Either long term investing or short term trading could make money in stocks. A common way could not make money is simply do nothing, waiting for inflation to depreciate the cash by -2% yearly which is sure loss over long term. Cash is King only when used at the right time, not keeping forever.

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Commodity Market, Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market Tagged: commodity, crude oil, Hong Kong Market, oil & gas, temasek, US Stocks

Top 10 Global Luxury Giant Stocks (纸醉金迷)

Posted on June 5, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

We may still remember the Malaysia 1MDB news a few years ago on millions of ringgit worth of luxury products (handbags –Bijan / Hermes / Gucci, jewelry, watches – Rolex / Patek Philippe) discovered as “gifts” to a lucky family. In fact, smart investors could profit from these luxury products in a legal way with stock investing, leveraging on global rich people with extravagant spending.

In this article, you will learn from Dr Tee on Top 10 Global Luxury Giant Stocks of 4 Countries for longer term investing and / or short term trading with COVID-19 recovery stock rally. Bonus for readers who could read every word of the entire article, learning unique strategy to position in each giant luxury stocks, including Ein55 Optimism level and Ein55 Intrinsic Value.

1) France Giant Luxury Stock: LVMH (EPA: MC), Hermes (EPA: RMS), Kering (EPA: KER)

2) US Giant Luxury Stock: Estee Lauder (NYSE: EL), PVH (NYSE: PVH)

3) Singapore Giant Luxury Stock: The Hour Glass (SGX: AGS), Cortina Holdings (SGX: C41)

4) HK Giant Luxury Stock: Chow Tai Fook (HKEx: 1929), Chow Sang Sang (HKEx: 116), Luk Fook (HKEx: 590)

Stocks with luxury products (eg. branded handbags, expensive gold jewelry, luxury watches, etc) are consumer discretionary stocks (纸醉金迷), usually following the economic cycle, very bullish during bull run (eg. last 1 year of pandemic recovery), very bearish during global financial crisis (eg. Q1 of 2020 pandemic, 2008-2009 subprime crisis, etc). Therefore, mastery of investment clock would help on cyclical luxury stocks to Buy Low Sell High.

However, there are some growth luxury giant stocks which are suitable with Buy Low and Hold long term strategy due to the fact that rich would become richer (sadly to say, may imply poor become poorer, especially those who don’t know investment, depending only on active income from 1 job) when global financial crisis is over. Therefore, the luxury product businesses of growth giant stocks could continue to grow for many decades, especially having a strong intangible asset of famous brands (status of rich people who are willing to pay more).

During COVID-19 pandemic, most luxury stocks suffer in businesses mainly due to temporary lower spending power of rich people and limited tourists who could be main customers in the past. With pandemic recovery (over last 1 year and likely for next 1 year) and availability of online purchases, both businesses and share prices of giant luxury stocks have been growing steadily. When international borders are fully opened one day after global vaccination of COVID-19, the business growth would be accelerated.

A giant stock may not need to be big in size, even a small company could be a giant stock. There are hundreds of luxury stocks globally but some could be junk stocks, Buy Low may become lower in share prices with declining businesses. Let’s study Top 10 Global Giant Luxury Stocks (following Dr Tee criteria), some are recovering from lower optimism in 4 global stock exchanges interested by readers:

1) France Giant Luxury Stock:

LVMH (EPA: MC), Hermes (EPA: RMS), Kering (EPA: KER)

Asian investors may not familiar with European stock market. In fact, France has the most famous luxury products brands in the world, many giant stocks are listed under Euronext Paris Stock Exchange (EPA) which is accessible to global investors. A smart investor would diversify investment over a portfolio of 10-20 global giant stocks in several countries, which may include No 6 largest economy in the world, France, which is famous for its people creativity (despite may not be as hardworking as Asian people).

LVMH (Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton) is the world largest luxury product, including many famous brands such as Hennessy (wine), LV, Christian Dior, etc. The major shareholder, Bernard Arnault, recently becomes the World No 1 Richest person as LVMH share prices have outperformed No 2 (Jeff Bezos of Amazon) and No 3 (Elon Musk of Tesla). Ein55 Optimism level is over 80%, current price is far exceeding Ein55 Intrinsic value, more suitable with short term momentum trading strategy (Buy High Sell Higher), requiring S.E.T. (Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices) trading plan.

Similar to LVMH, Hermes is also a family owned business but much smaller in business size, famous with luxury handbags (some rich people wives may have no resistance over them, becoming a collector with millions of dollars spent). However, Hermes is a much stronger growth stock than LVMH, business is so good that even LVMH was hoping to acquire it but mission failed many years ago. Ein55 Optimism level is near to 90%, suitable for both growth investing and momentum trading, but ideal entry point may be to wait for a global financial crisis, especially for longer term investors.

Dr Tee discussed both LVMH and Hermes as stock homework with Ein55 graduates about 2 years ago, even with over 30% share price correction during pandemic crisis, both stocks have achieved 70% potential gains so far. Both are excellent examples of growth stock investing, even if an investor did not sell during global stock crisis, growth giant stocks could recover faster to achieve a new high in future. The main enemy of an investor is usually oneself, especially when a giant stock with growing business is significantly corrected in share prices due to market fear.

Kering is No 4 largest luxury stock in the world, famous of brands such as Gucci, Yves Saint Laurent, etc. Kering is also strong in business but slower growth compared to Hermes and LVMH, more suitable with Buy Low Sell High strategy. Ein55 Optimism level is near to 80% with pandemic recovery, more suitable for short term trading.

In fact, short term performance of LVMH, Hermes and Kering are comparable (currently bullish trends) and aligned due to similar consumer discretionary sector (Level 2) and same country (Level 3). For both short term trading and long term investor, Level Analysis would help to improve probability of success, knowing the unique market cycles (bull / bear) of each sector and country.

Readers may read earlier article by Dr Tee for more details with Top 10 World Richest Persons stocks including LVMH:
https://www.ein55.com/2021/02/top-10-world-richest-giant-stocks/

2) US Giant Luxury Stock:

Estee Lauder (NYSE: EL), PVH (NYSE: PVH)

Estee Lauder is world No 2 largest luxury stock, famous of beauty products (cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, etc). It may be relatively easier to make money from ladies than men, therefore in a typical department store, men section is usually much smaller than lady section, mainly to maximize the business revenue.

Therefore, Ester Lauder is comparable with LVMH, also strong growth in business and share prices, recovering well after the correction during pandemic. Ein55 Optimism level is over 70%, more suitable for short term momentum trading, similar strategy as LVMH and Hermes.

PVH is world No 10 largest luxury stock, famous of brands such as Calvin Klein, Van Heusen, Tommy Hilfiger, etc. However, PVH business is affected much more than other giant stocks, was making a loss during 2020 pandemic year, recovery is also slower. PVH is more cyclical in nature, may be considered with Buy Low Sell High strategy. Ein55 Optimism level is still moderate low near to 30%, aiming for Ein55 Intrinsic Value of $170.

Despite global luxury giant stocks are from different countries, there is an alignment globally (Level 4) in businesses and share prices, especially with more online purchases without travelling, people from country A may purchase a luxury product from country B easily. Consumer discretionary sector with luxury products would follow economic cycles, higher growth during bullish economy, slower growth (or declining) during bearish economy.

Readers may read earlier articles by Dr Tee for more details of other US Giant Stocks:
https://www.ein55.com/tag/us-stocks/

3) Singapore Giant Luxury Stock:

The Hour Glass (SGX: AGS), Cortina Holdings (SGX: C41)

Hour Glass and Cortina are competitors, having very similar businesses, mainly in sales of luxury watches (eg. Rolex, Patek Philippe, Hublot, etc). For regular followers of Dr Tee education articles and videos (www.ein55.com/blog), you would not miss these 2 Singapore luxury giant stocks, Hour Glass and Cortina, at lower Ein55 Optimism levels when sharing during last 1 year of pandemic.

Both giant stocks are strong growth in businesses (cash rich companies), not significantly affected during pandemic (despite fewer tourists to Singapore). However, the strategy to position is very different for each stock. Hour Glass was having more discount a few months ago, when share price was near to 80 cents, Dr Tee discussed as stock homework with Ein55 graduates, also shared in earlier articles with readers, indicating Ein55 Intrinsic Value of $1.20 which is achieved recently, having 50% potential profits in a few months for readers who do own homework and take actions decisively. Despite the current price is near to its fair value, there is potential of higher price of over $1.60 if Hour Glass could attract institutional investors or supported by market greed to higher optimism level as its competitor, Cortina.

Cortina has much higher Ein55 Optimism level (over 90% currently), therefore the positioning over the past few months has been short term momentum trading, following trends to Buy High Sell Higher. Cortina is relatively an illiquid stock with less stock trading volume, therefore it could be very volatile (+/-10% price movement) on certain days. For stock analysis, instead of daily chart (certain days having 0 trading volume), it is clearer when viewing with weekly or monthly chart. Price trends of Cortina and Hour Glass are generally aligned but Cortina has appreciated much more than Hour Glass over the past 1 year.

For medium to long term investor, Hour Glass may be relatively more suitable than Cortina as Hour Glass has higher dividend yield (3-5%, depending on entry prices) and lower Ein55 Optimism level than Cortina. Recently, Hour Glass doubles the interim dividend from 2 cents (last year) to 4 cents (this year), higher dividend has helped to push up the share prices to a new historical high, also motivating Cortina to follow the same price trends. There is also good succession plan, Hour Glass business is passed from Henry Tay to his son (Michael Tay) who has been well trained in this luxury watch industry. So, a luxury watch may be a collection for decades but a smart investor may own “thousands” of watches by investing in Hour Glass or Cortina.

Hour Glass is 2 times larger than Cortina based on market cap but both are considered medium cap stocks, therefore may not be in the radar of institutional investors yet. Cortina has acquired Sincere Watch recently, business size is considered No 2 after Hour Glass for luxury watch market in Singapore. To benefit from the entire luxury watches market, major shareholder of Hour Glass, Henry Tay, is also the second largest shareholder of Cortina, which is a competitor of Hour Glass. A smart investor may learn from Henry Tay, sometimes may invest in a few competing giant stocks of any sector of interest If they are equally good.

For small or medium cap giant stock, it is easier for share prices to move up (or down) as shares are exchanging hands within a smaller group of investors, especially when majority of shares are controlled by a few major shareholders. For example, major shareholder of Hour Glass, Henry Tay, recently adding a small percentage of own shares (known insider trading) but this is sufficient to support Hour Glass above $1/share. A smart investor would diversify over a portfolio of giant stocks with small cap <$100M (higher potential), medium cap $100M – $1B (good balance of potential and stability) and large cap >$1B (more stability).

Readers may read earlier articles (during pandemic with lower Ein55 Optimism level) by Dr Tee for more details with Singapore Growth Stocks including Hour Glass and Cortina:
https://www.ein55.com/tag/growth-stock/

4) HK Giant Luxury Stock:

Chow Tai Fook (HKEx: 1929), Chow Sang Sang (HKEx: 116), Luk Fook (HKEx: 590)

Before pandemic, some readers who travel often to Hong Kong may remember these famous jewelry shops along shopping streets: Chow Tai Fook (周大福), Chow Sang Sang (周生生) and Luk Fook (六福), which are all giant luxury stocks, making money from both local residents and overseas tourists. However, there are many luxury stocks (jewelry, watches, etc) listed in Hong Kong Stock Exchange, not all are giant stocks.

Businesses of all these 3 Hong Kong luxury giant stocks were affected, not only during the last 1 year of pandemic. In fact, even before pandemic, despite growing gold price since Year 2015, jewelry market in Hong Kong has been declining over the years, partly because the number of mainland China tourists to Hong Kong is declining with local political differences. The activists in Hong Kong over the past few years (before pandemic) have further slowdown the demand of this luxury product market.

After the enhancement of local Hong Kong law against potential activists, these 3 luxury giant stocks have started to grow gradually in businesses, supported by pandemic recovery. These 3 giant stocks have very similar trends in businesses (same sector) and share prices (same stock market) in short to medium terms. Relatively, Chow Tai Fook (world No 9 largest luxury stock) is the strongest among 3 stocks on business recovery during pandemic, short term share price is also more bullish than Chow Sang Sang and Luk Fook.

In general, Chow Sang Sang and Luk Fook are still at low Ein55 Optimism levels (less than 25%), aiming for Ein55 Intrinsic Values of about $30 (Chow Sang Sang) and $60 (Luk Fook) respectively, may be considered for cyclic investing or short term trading. They are average quality of crisis stocks due to relatively weaker businesses. Major leader of sector, Chow Tai Fook, is more suitable for trend-following short term trading.

Readers may read earlier articles by Dr Tee for more details of other Hong Kong Giant Stocks:
https://www.ein55.com/tag/hong-kong-market/

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It is easy to know “Buy Low Sell High” is universal secret to profit in most investment. However, most people dare not buy when share price of giant stocks fall to very low optimism (due to lack of visibility of how low is low). Similarly, some people may not buy when share prices of giant stocks go to very high optimism (despite possible to do short term trading). Eventually, some may buy junk stocks during speculative trading, making money for first few times, losing more in later trading when adding more position due to “confidence” of winning in the past.

It shows the importance for retail investors to master stock trading and investment skills, not only knowing but able to take actions (Buy / Hold / Sell / Wait / Shorting). Readers who could spend time to read until here is an achievement, continue the momentum to learn and apply further in stock investment after mastery of skills.

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There are over 1500 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Value Investing Tagged: growth stock, Hong Kong Market, luxury stocks, US Stocks

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