Oil & Gas Stocks (Singapore, US, Hong Kong) with 100% Profit (火上加油)

Crude oil crashed to negative price 1 year ago, how many of you dare to buy oil or related stocks when others were fearful? Everyone knows “Buy Low Sell High” is the secret to make money in investment but in practice, not many people able to pluck the low-hanging fruits.

In this article, you will learn from Dr Tee on Giant Oil & Stocks of 3 Countries (over 100% profits in the past 1 year) for longer term investing and / or short term trading with COVID-19 recovery stock rally. Bonus for readers who could read every word of the entire article, learning unique strategy to position in each giant stocks, including Ein55 Optimism level and Ein55 Intrinsic Value.

1) US Giant Oil & Gas Funds

Energy Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE ARCA: XLE) / US Oil Fund (NYSE ARCA: USO)

– 100% capital gains after oil price surged over 3 times in last 1 year

2) Singapore Giant Oil & Gas Stock: Union Gas Holdings (SGX: 1F2)

– over 100% profit since sharing in 5 months after sharing with Ein55 graduates & public webinars

3) Hong Kong / China Giant Oil & Gas Stock: Kunlun Energy Company (HKEX: 135)

– over 30% special dividend yield and over 20% capital gains since Ex-Dividend on 31 May 2021

Crude oil is a major commodity, therefore a giant by default (similar to property market which is also a form of commodity) as it is not possible for the world to live without energy supply.  Crude oil experienced bearish market due to natural market cycle since Year 2014 when WTI crude oil prices fell from high optimism of over US$100/barrel to low optimism of US$20/barrel, even crashed to negative price (only for 1 day due to abnormal oil futures contract, mostly from USO oil fund) during pandemic in Apr 2020.

For cyclic giant such as crude oil and related Oil & Gas stocks, the entire market was reborn after the worst time of negative oil price.  OPEC and non-OPEC oil producer countries learn to collaborate to stabilize the oil price during this crisis of century. Since then, oil price and related stocks start to rebound from low Ein55 Optimism but mainly limited to long term value investors. During recovery of pandemic over the past 1 year with more energy consumption (industries, transportation, household, etc), oil price and related stocks have gone up steadily, even approaching fair prices with mid Ein55 Optimism. With support of more short term traders who join the game recently (火上加油), oil and gas stocks are enjoying strong uptrend momentum in prices.

A giant stock may not need to be big in size, even a small company could be a giant stock. There are hundreds of Oil & Gas stocks globally but some could be junk stocks, Buy Low may become lower in share prices with declining businesses. Let’s study Global Giant Oil & Gas Stocks (following Dr Tee criteria), some are recovering from lower optimism in 3 global stock exchanges interested by readers:

1) US Giant Oil & Gas Funds

Energy Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE ARCA: XLE) / US Oil Fund (NYSE ARCA: USO)

There is no direct way of investing in crude oil market, some investors may consider either investing through oil futures fund, eg. United States Oil ETF (NYSE ACRA: USO) or Energy Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE ARCA: XLE).

USO oil fund applies rollover of WTI oil futures contracts to invest in oil indirectly.  Due to Contango in most of the time over the past few years, USO has underperformed actual oil price due to the additional loss (reducing overall capital gains) when rollover to future contracts with higher prices. However, current oil futures is under Backwardation, rollover of monthly futures contracts with lower prices would give extra capital gains, therefore higher probability of winning for trading crude oil with USO.

During pandemic in Q2 2020, WTI fell to $20/barrel, an investor may apply average down strategy (see earlier educational article by Dr Tee during the worst time of pandemic: https://www.ein55.com/2020/03/10-bullets-of-crude-oil-uso-etf-investing/), even if following oil prices to $0 (excluding negative price), average entry price is only $10/barrel (average of $20 + $15 + $10 + $5 + $0), now is already over $70/barrel, over 7 times.

Even if an investor invested in WTI oil price at the highest price of low optimism level, $20/barrel, the corresponding USO fund price was about $33/unit (after 8 to 1 stock consolidation), current price is about $48/unit (with WTI price of about $70/barrel), nearly 50% capital gains (not comparable with actual 3X oil price gains from $20/barrel to $70/barrel, mainly due to USO huge loss during negative oil price and Contango period). 

If reading most blogs or analysts reports during pandemic in Q2/2020 after negative oil price, most would write with hindsight that USO was in trouble, may even go bankrupt. Interest in Oil & Gas stocks was very low as well with so many bad news on crude oil market in the past.  In fact, this was a perfect time for oil & gas giant stock investing, especially for a few with strong business, supported by dividend yield over 10% (only known to Ein55 graduates), possible for contrarian investing with average down strategy to Buy Low, collecting quarterly dividend while waiting for the light at the end of tunnel for stock recovery to Sell High one day (currently is only a fair price for crude oil and related giant stocks).

After 1 year later, for investors who could take action with calculated risk on USO (despite this is not perfect for oil investing) or Oil & Gas giant stocks, they are rewarded now. For those who are still thinking or analyzing today (when others are not fearful anymore on oil market), the upside is limited, unless following short term momentum trading.

An alternative to oil futures fund or giant stock investing is to invest in a portfolio of large cap stocks (may not be giant stocks), diversifying the unsystematic business risks.  SPDR fund for Energy Sector Index (XLE) consists of big oil & gas companies such as Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX), etc. These oil & gas stocks are too big to fail (although may not be true all the time but unlikely for all to go bankrupt together), having more reserves to last through the winter time with low Ein55 Optimism oil prices. XLE fund portfolio is supported by integrated oil businesses (upstream oil exploration, midstream oil delivery and storage, downstream oil refinery and processing).

When WTI oil price was $20/barrel, assuming an investor invested in XLE (was about $28/unit), potential capital gains so far is 100%, 2X with XLE at about $55/unit.  XLE could be a better option than USO for longer term investing as it is supported indirectly by big Oil & Gas companies (may not be giant stocks, following Dr Tee criteria) with interests affected by oil prices.  USO is fine for shorter term trading unless during Backwardation period with additional capital gains.

Current Brent or WTI crude oil price of $70+/barrel is still below the Ein55 Intrinsic Value of about $80+/barrel. When there is market greed (common for cyclic commodity market), there is further potential to go beyond $100+/barrel, especially with weaker US Dollar and strong global economy during pandemic recovery after global vaccination.  If so, a smart investor would know when to exit, taking profits at high Ein55 Optimism, waiting for the next market cycle to profit from crude oil and related stocks again.

For conservative investors, it is fine to exit earlier with fair price (after Buy Low last time), converting Oil & Gas stocks to cash (as future investment opportunity fund) or Change Horse to other more defensive dividend giant stocks in the phase 2 (greedy market cycle) of stock market. Cash is King when used at the right time (usually during bearish market with low Ein55 Optimism such as Year 2020 pandemic), an investor has to know when to convert between stocks and cash.

2) Singapore Giant Oil & Gas Stock: Union Gas Holdings (SGX: 1F2)

There are only about 40 Oil & Gas giant stocks globally, excluding marginal giant stocks with familiar names such as Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4).  In fact, many Oil & Gas giant stocks are small and medium cap stocks, businesses have been growing steadily even with bearish WTI crude oil prices over the past 6 years, falling from $100/barrel to $20/barrel to negative prices.  Value is what you get (barrel of crude oil) and price is what you pay, therefore abnormal negative price (seller has to pay to buyer) could not last over 1 day. It can be risky to invest in non-giant oil & gas stocks, especially in Singapore, Buy Low may get lower or even potentially going bankrupt in business, losing everything.

Union Gas is a young Oil & Gas Giant stock in Singapore (4 years after IPO) but having over 40 years of business in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas), business performance has been excellent before and after IPO till now, potential to expand from Singapore to other Southeast Asian countries. Major shareholder (Teo family) has over 70% ownership, paying steady dividend to themselves and also to other shareholders. However, Union Gas share price was stagnant since IPO until last 1 year of pandemic (crisis as opportunity due to higher demand for LPG when people staying longer at home), starting to break above low optimism level of $0.30/share, going up steadily.

When Dr Tee assigned this homework to Ein55 Graduates in Jan 2021, main strategy was positioning for trading with entry share price at $0.53/share or above after each intermediate price breakout.  The stock has gone up a few rounds over the past 5 months, trend-following trading may be applied, especially for giant stock at higher optimism with support by growing business in a promising sector with strong global economy. Based on current price of $1.10 on 14 June 2021 (another 10% rally today), it has doubled its share price with 100% profits.

Union Gas is both a growth stock for long term investing and momentum stock for short term trading.  Dr Tee has used the same stock as case study in free 4hr monthly webinars (www.ein55.com) over the past few months, even a trader may enter halfway at $0.80+, potential gains so far is already over 30%.  For shorter term trading of giant stocks, it is crucial to include S.E.T. (Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices) in trading plan.

Union Gas is one of over 200 stocks in Singapore Catalist Market, mostly are penny stocks (many have weak business fundamentals), only 5 stocks have over $1/share price.  However, some strong price penny stocks in the past may not be sustainable in future. For example, both UG Healthcare Corporation (SGX: 8K7) and Medtecs International Corporation (SGX: 546) from Catalist market were over $1/share, now back to penny stock (below $1/share) after the market greed has subsided for pandemic beneficiary stocks. Those speculators who chase after the high prices would suffer huge loss when the momentum is stopped one day.

In the last rally of global stock market, usually penny stocks including many junk stocks would go to higher optimism level, speculators may buy up (especially when stock prices rising over 2-10 times) without consideration of businesses, ignorant of price vs value. Sadly to say, this group of speculators (mainly applying tips strategy in action taking) may make some pocket money with over small gains of 10-20% but eventually may need to pay back over big losses of 50-90% to Mr Market when show hands at wrong time with more capitals in future trades of junk stocks with consideration of prices alone (happened several times before, including penny stock crisis many years ago with Blumont (SGX: A33), LionGold (SGX: A78), etc.

3) Hong Kong / China Giant Oil & Gas Stock: Kunlun Energy Company (HKEX: 135)

Kunlun Energy was a Temasek stock who was lucky to sell the stocks many years ago while the stock prices falling from peak of over $16/share in Year 2013 to $4/share during pandemic 2020. In fact, Kunlun Energy has been a little giant stock under giant parent company, PetroChina (HKEX: 857), No 2 largest Oil & Gas stock in the world. Kunlun is a small cap company with integrated LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) businesses.

Kunlun Energy has strong business fundamental but share prices have been affected by bearish crude oil and natural gas prices. Natural gas usually is a byproduct of crude oil drilling, therefore both Oil & Gas stocks are strongly correlated in both businesses and share prices within similar sector, despite the applications are different. Even the future world may not need crude oil one day, becoming 100% green energy, still needs natural gas to produce electricity.

So, popularity of electric vehicles would not eliminate traditional energy sources of crude oil and natural gas. Buying technology giant stocks such as Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is mainly investing in future (pretty picture with higher uncertainty), while buying Oil & Gas giant stocks, are based on proven current business (low-hanging fruits).  An investor may make decision with known facts (which sometimes may last for decades, no need to predict into future which may not come within one’s lifetime.

Over the last 1 year of pandemic, Kunlun Energy recovers in share prices from $4/share to over $9/share with over 100% capital gains. Over the past few months, Dr Tee has shared Kunlun Energy with both Ein55 Graduates and monthly free 4hr public webinars (www.ein55.com), those who take actions recently could profit in both one-time special dividend yield of 32% (mainly due to disposal of an asset) and over 20% capital gains since Ex-Dividend on 31 May 2021 till now.

Kunlun Energy is still a momentum stock for trading, certain trading platform may not adjust for 32% dividend yield on 31 May 2021, then investor has to take note of the 30% price ($9 to $6) differences. It may also be considered for longer term investing (current price is still near to low Ein55 optimism level) with Ein55 Intrinsic Value nearly $18. However, this stock is highly cyclical, may not be suitable for low risk tolerance investor (even Temasek sold it in the last bearish cycle), despite business fundamental is excellent with strong sponsor (PetroChina), share price could fluctuate more than indices.

Volatility could be friend for traders while low optimism (price lower than value) could be friend for investors. So, an investor has to confirm PA (Personal Analysis), aligning the investing strategies with own unique personality (eg. short term trading or long term investing). PA is an anchor point to avoid drifting of position due to emotional stock market. “Copy and Paste” of other people’s best stocks or successes may not work without internalization.

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Due to sector rotation with weakening of USD, commodity market is recovering steadily from low optimism in last few years, now approaching mid optimism of fair value, attracting potential short term traders to follow the uptrend prices of commodity stocks (oil & gas, agricultural, precious metals, etc).

Value investor has option to enter these lower Ein55 Optimism stocks at much lower prices (Buy Low Sell High) with contrarian investing (supporting by high dividend yield). Short term traders would enter at much higher prices (Buy high sell higher), following trends.

Either long term investing or short term trading could make money in stocks. A common way could not make money is simply do nothing, waiting for inflation to depreciate the cash by -2% yearly which is sure loss over long term. Cash is King only when used at the right time, not keeping forever.

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There are over 2000 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar, you could ask on any global and local stocks including but not limited to 30 STI component stocks:

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

View quick preview video below, Dr Tee will introduce 10 key stock investment strategies (股票投资十招) to be learned in 4hr free stock webinar:

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar):  www.ein55.com

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Latest 30 STI index Stocks Strategies (卧虎藏龙)

30 STI index stocks represent the overall Singapore stock market performance. The list is dynamic, recent new comers are Keppel DC Reit (replacing SPH) and Frasers Logistics and Commercial Trust (replacing Jardine Strategic Holdings). During the COVID-19 stock recovery, there is a sector rotation, investors start to pay more attention to cyclical stocks (eg. bank, properties and transportation sectors, etc), which are main businesses of 30 STI stocks.

In this article, you will learn from Dr Tee on the Latest 30 STI Index Stocks Strategies, some may be considered for longer term investing and / or short term trading with COVID-19 recovery stock rally. Bonus for readers who could read every words of the entire article, learning unique strategy to position in 30 STI Index stocks for both passive incomes (dividend) and capital gains with potential share price appreciation. Both Ein55 Optimism levels and intrinsic values will be shared for 6 groups of STI stocks with potential. Learn key applications of ALL 30 STI stocks with 1 article here:

4 Banking & Finance STI Stocks (35% of STI):
– DBS Bank (SGX: D05), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Singapore Exchange (SGX) (SGX: S68)

4 Property STI Stocks (9% of STI):
– CapitaLand (SGX: C31), City Development (SGX: C09), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), UOL (SGX: U14)

7 REITs STI Stocks (11% of STI):
– Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) (SGX: C38U), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U)

4 Jardine STI Stocks (14% of STI):
– Jardine Matheson Holdings – JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01)

4 Transportation STI Stocks (6% of STI):
– ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Singapore Airlines (SIA) (SGX: C6L), SATS (SGX: S58), Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) (SGX: BS6)

8 Other Sectors STI Stocks (27% of STI):
– Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singtel (SGX: Z74), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34)

Investing in stock index of a country with growing economy (eg. Singapore STI, China A50 / Hong Kong HSI, USA S&P500 and Nasdaq, Malaysia KLCI, etc) is a defensive strategy as the stock index is well diversified over a portfolio of large cap stocks (卧虎藏龙) from various sectors, able to minimize unsystematic risks due to uncertainties in businesses and sector cycles. An investor may invest in stock indices with ETFs (Exchange Traded Fund), eg. STI Singapore has 2 ETFs: SPDR STI  ETF (SGX: ES3) and Nokko AM STI ETF (SGX: G3B), can be traded like any stock.  This provides a way for small capital investor to diversify in investment with minimal capital, eg. 1 STI ETF equals to investing in 30 STI stocks at the same time with different weightages.

The best time to buy 30 STI stocks or index ETF is always during global stock crisis (eg. Year 2020-2021 during pandemic, 2008—2009 during subprime crisis, etc), not only able to maximize the dividend yield (due to lower entry share price), also could have higher potential of capital gains (when market cycle moves from fear in low optimism to greed in high optimism). STI Index stocks investing is not for dividend collection alone, may be integrated with growth investing, swing trading, momentum trading, cyclic investing, defensive investing, undervalue investing and other Ein55 strategies.

30 STI index stocks represent the 30 largest stocks by trading market capitalization (trading price x trading volume). Therefore, not all are giant stocks (based on Dr Tee giant stock criteria).  Below are the 30 STI index component stocks based on the last price traded (20 Apr 2021), sorted by 6 main groups with details of 3 key Fundamental Criteria:
1) ROE (a criteria for growth stocks, eg. ROE > 5%),
2) Dividend Yield, DY (a criteria for dividend stocks, eg. DY > 3%),
3) Price-to-Book (PB) ratio, Price/NAV (a criteria for undervalue stocks, eg. PB < 1).

From the table sorted below, over 50% (18/30 STI stocks) have growing businesses (over 5% ROE, Return on Equity) while 7 stocks were making losses during pandemic in Year 2020. With recovery of pandemic, there are only 20% (6/30 STI stocks) are still undervalue (Price to Book ratio, PB < 1). There are over 50% (16/30 STI stocks) have dividend yield over 3%, potential for dividend investing. STI ETF has an average dividend yield of about 3%, may be considered as replacement for long term fixed deposit but it requires a stock crisis to start this saving scheme at lower Ein55 optimism level to minimize the potential capital loss due to emotional stock market.

However, not all the 30 STI index stocks listed are giant stocks. A growing business in the past may not be sustainable during COVID-19 period, could end up as a crisis stock. Fundamental Analysis alone is not sufficient, a high dividend yield stock may be a value trap as this may be the result of lower share price with weakening businesses. Therefore, deeper analysis is required with LOFTP (Level, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical, Personal Analysis) Strategies. 

No30 STI StocksROE (%)PBDY (%)
1Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U)4.971.44.8
2CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) (SGX: C38U)2.6831.14.0
3CapitaLand (SGX: C31)0.92.4
4City Development (SGX: C09)0.91.0
5ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52)2.3711.50.8
6DBS Bank (SGX: D05)8.6421.43.0
7Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01)20.54.43.9
8Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU)12.061.34.8
9Genting Singapore (SGX: G13)0.8841.41.1
10Hongkong Land (SGX: H78)0.34.4
11Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36)1.62.7
12Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07)8.0731.02.4
13Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4)0.91.8
14Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU)8.6472.33.4
15Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU)9.3851.23.8
16Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U)10.311.64.1
17Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U)8.2351.53.6
18OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)7.2271.12.7
19SATS (SGX: S58)10.413.01.4
20Singapore Exchange (SGX) (SGX: S68)37.98.92.9
21Singapore Airlines (SIA) (SGX: C6L)1.30.6
22ST Engineering (SGX: S63)22.765.43.8
23Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96)1.21.8
24Singtel (SGX: Z74)4.0111.64.8
25Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92)15.962.93.4
26UOB Bank (SGX: U11)6.9021.13.0
27UOL (SGX: U14)0.1340.72.2
28Venture Corporation (SGX: V03)11.52.33.7
29Wilmar International (SGX: F34)8.1251.42.4
30Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) (SGX: BS6)7.7810.83.3

Here, let’s focus on 30 STI Index Component Stocks in Singapore over 6 main groups (Hongkong Land is counted twice under both Jardine Stock & Property Stock), learning the unique positioning:

4 Banking & Finance STI Stocks (35% of STI):
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– DBS Bank (SGX: D05), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Singapore Exchange (SGX) (SGX: S68)

3 major banks in Singapore (DBS, OCBC, UOB – all are giant stocks with close relative performance in medium term) are key pillars to STI, contributing to 33% or 1/3 of STI. Therefore, price movement and business changes in Singapore banks or financial sector would affect STI direction significantly. With improvement of pandemic condition, all 3 Singapore major banks reported better quarterly results. As a result, the share prices have recovered from lower optimism level, currently near to their respective intrinsic values.  This implies the cyclic upside potential of DBS, OCBC and UOB are limited (unless there is another global financial crisis to buy low in future), share prices would grow gradually along their intrinsic values with time.

Main current strategy for 3 bank stocks could be momentum trading (Buy High Sell Higher) with support of increasing bank interest rate (improving interest income with higher NIM, Net Interest Margin) over the next few years.  When Asian stock market are over-price (exceeding intrinsic values) with greedy market emotions, STI may achieve a new historical high, bank stock investors may need to plan for exit strategy at higher Ein55 Optimism level.  Meanwhile, Singapore bank stocks are still suitable for long term dividend investing, especially if 60% dividend payout cap (based on FY2019) may be lifted by MAS from Q2/2021, then dividend yield would increase by 50%, achieving normal dividend yield of nearly 5% (comparable with REITs), an excellent alternative to cash deposit in banks or even Singapore Savings Bond which has only 0.5% interest rate yearly, becoming negative return when inflation is over 1%.

Singapore Exchange (SGX) is a moderate growth stock due to a monopoly business model, regardless of bullish or bearish stock market, as long as there is higher demand to buy or sell stocks, earnings would increase.  With challenges from Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX: 388) who wins the MSCI Future business, Singapore Exchange has to explore new derivatives and widen the customer base to more global investors. Intrinsic value of Singapore Exchange is about $13, still undervalue at the moment, having upside potential but patience is required due to moderate growth.

Even if an investor could not buy any Singapore bank stock, may follow Ein55 Optimism strategy to buy STI index at low optimism (<25%) during pandemic, recovery from 2200+ to 3200+ points, the reward could be 30% – 50% in 1 year, depending on the timing of entry when “others are fearful”.

Readers may read earlier article (June 2020 during pandemic with low optimism prices) by Dr Tee for more details on 30 Banking & Finance stocks in Singapore, not limited to STI:
https://www.ein55.com/2020/06/30-singapore-banking-and-finance-stocks/


4 Property STI Stocks (9% of STI):
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– CapitaLand (SGX: C31), City Development (SGX: C09), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), UOL (SGX: U14)

4 major property stocks in Singapore (CapitaLand, City Development, Hongkong Land and UOL) are undervalue in nature (PB < 1), only contributing to 9% of STI. With recovery of pandemic, lower optimism levels of property stocks start to appreciate in share prices but still below their intrinsic values currently. For example, Hongkong Land has nearly 2X potential from current share price of $5 to its intrinsic value of about $9 but it has a new variable of stagnant Hongkong property market.  Despite Hongkong Land is listed in Singapore, main property business is located in Hong Kong, devaluation of Hong Kong properties results in accounting losses in FY2020 but cashflow is not affected, therefore able to pay consistent dividend as if a REIT (dividend yield of 4-5%).

Among all 4 STI property stocks, City Development has the weakest business fundamental (partly due to setback in China investment with Sincere Property), therefore even if share price has the most discount, this could be a value trap for longer term investor, therefore a lower quality of crisis stock.  UOL and CapitaLand are relatively stronger in businesses.  Despite Singapore property construction business was affected during pandemic, actual property price is growing up gradually.  Therefore, Singapore property stocks are likely to recover strongly after pandemic.

Temasek stock, CapitaLand, will be delisted in near future after recent restructuring, replacing with another potential new giant stock, CLIM (investment asset management company which focus on growth investing). In future, the undervalue CapitaLand may be listed again with higher premium price, a better option than continue the current listing with long term undervalue price under the theme of property stock.

Similar to bank stocks, Singapore property stocks are also cyclical in nature, more suitable with Buy Low Sell High strategy.  STI property stocks also could be a defender with dividend investing, especially for Hongkong Land, almost behaving like a Reit with steady dividend payment (except not required by law). Since Singapore property stocks are undervalue in nature, this is a layer of safety measure for long term investor as the asset value is more than its current share price.  However, if major shareholder decides to delist an undervalue property stock at low optimism level, then minority shareholders may not gain much after sharing the pain of holding in long term. Therefore, when Singapore stock market and property market rise to a higher optimism level, a property stock investor may consider the exit strategy (Sell High and Buy Low next time), no need to hold for long term.

Readers may read earlier article (June 2020 during pandemic with low optimism prices) by Dr Tee for more details on 47 Undervalue Property Stocks in Singapore, not limited to STI:
https://www.ein55.com/2020/06/47-undervalue-sg-property-stocks-for-privatization-including-perennial/


7 REITs STI Stocks (11% of STI):
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– Ascendas Reit – Areit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust – CICT (SGX: C38U), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust – FLCT (SGX: BUOU), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust – MCT (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust – MIT (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust – MLT (SGX: M44U)

The earlier 2 new comers of STI are MIT and FLCT, both are REITs, The 4 STI reserved list (for future consideration, eg. after replacement of CapitaLand after it is delisted) are all REITs or Trust related stocks, showing the increasing demand for defensive dividend investing: Keppel REIT, Suntec REIT, Frasers Centrepoint Trust and NetLink NBN Trust.

7 STI REITs in Singapore (Areit, CICT, FLCT, Keppel DC Reit  MCT, MIT, MLT) are all giant REITs for dividend investing, the ideal time to invest was during pandemic when “others are fearful” in 2020 with over 30% price correction at low Ein55 Optimism level, resulting in higher dividend yield over 4 to 7%. “Buy Low” is only applicable for giant stocks, otherwise “Buy Low” may become lower for weak fundamental stocks.

Most of these 7 STI REITs have recovered to near or even above their intrinsic values, except CICT is still at moderate low optimism, having over 20% discount below its fair value, growth is slow but steady.  MCT is close to its intrinsic value but slower growth. Both MLT and FLCT are at higher Ein55 Optimism levels, supported by logistics business with higher demand during pandemic.

Singapore REITs in general only have moderate dividend yield after recovery from pandemic so far. A few non-STI REITs with high dividend yield could be a value trap with weaker business, driving lower prices and therefore higher dividend yield).  Dividend yield should not be the main selection criteria of a giant REIT.

These 3 industrial STI REITs (Keppel DC Reit, MIT, Areit) have strong uptrend momentum during the early stage of pandemic (industry sector business was not much affected during circuit breaker time) but suffering in sector rotation when pandemic condition improves in later stage, share prices were corrected more than 20% over the past few months, currently under second round of price recovery, may be considered for medium term trading with trend-following strategies, applying S.E.T. (Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices) in trading plan.  All these 3 STI REITs have partial business related to high growth data center (100% for Keppel DC Reit, 30% for MIT, 10% for Areit) with higher demand in internet applications during and post pandemic.

In summary, 7 STI REITs are excellent choices for dividend investing but the best time for investing is always when “others are fearful” during Global Financial Crisis with low Ein55 Optimism level. Currently these giant REITs are more suitable for medium term dividend investing or even trading with trend-following strategies. Unlike property market, REITs are hybrid of stocks and properties, therefore they are cyclic in nature, an investor could suffer significant capital loss when buying at high Ein55 Optimism level with downtrend prices, especially near to peak of stock market.

Readers may read earlier article (June 2020 during pandemic with low optimism prices) by Dr Tee for more details on 42 REITs and 16 Business Trusts in Singapore, not limited to STI:
https://www.ein55.com/2020/06/42-singapore-reits-16-business-trusts/


4 Jardine STI Stocks (14% of STI):
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– Jardine Matheson Holdings – JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Cycle & Carriage – JCC (SGX: C07), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01)

Jardine group of stocks are influential to STI, even with delisting of JSH, these 4 Jardine giant stocks (JMH, JCC, Hongkong Land and Dairy Farm) still dominate 14% of STI by market cap.  Currently, all these 4 Jardine STI stocks are recovering together from very low Ein55 Optimism level, partly supported by the corporate news of acquisition of JSH by JMH, triggering speculation on potential next undervalue Jardine stock to acquire which may surge in prices.

In fact, acquisition of a giant stock at low optimism (eg. JSH) should be a nightmare for a long term investor, despite a premium price (typically about 20%) is given for the offer to minority shareholders.  For long term investor who bought a stock at higher optimism level, even could hold a stock for long term or lifetime, may not able to stop the major shareholder from leveraging on low optimism opportunity to delist a company at undervalue prices (including CapitaLand, JSH and many other good fundamental stocks), a few may even end up with losses as entry price at high optimism is higher than the acquisition price. 

Therefore, to minimize systematic risks (eg. global financial crisis, sector correction, etc), investing in a portfolio of 10-20 giant stocks at lower Ein55 Optimism with strong holding power could improve the probability of winning in investment. Stock market in short term is a voting machine (up and down daily, sensitive to news) but in a long term, it becomes a weighing machine (steady growth in years with support of growing business).

All the 4 Jardine STI stocks are aligned with recovery of share prices from low Ein55 Optimism levels. They are considered laggard stocks (slower in recovery from pandemic), limited number of giant stocks with higher upside cyclic potential. However, Jardine stocks are cyclical in nature, stock price volatilities may be beyond the risk tolerance level of some traders or even investors.

Readers may read earlier article (Apr 2020 during the worst time of pandemic with very low optimism prices) by Dr Tee for more details on 7 Jardine Group of Giant Stocks, not limited to STI:
https://www.ein55.com/2020/04/7-jardine-king-of-singapore-stocks/


4 Transportation STI Stocks (6% of STI):
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– ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Singapore Airlines (SIA) (SGX: C6L), SATS (SGX: S58), Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) (SGX: BS6)

There are 4 transportation STI stocks: ComfortDelGro (land transportation), Singapore Airlines (airlines), SATS (partial airlines), Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (shipping). Transportation sector in general is badly affected during pandemic but strongly supported by government grants, therefore these stocks start to recover with slow business improvement in later stage of pandemic.  Stock market is always forward looking, most people believe pandemic would end sooner or later, therefore global vaccination starts to recover the share prices of transportation stock, despite their businesses are still weak.

ComfortDelgro is mainly on taxi business, also has bus / MRT / car inspection businesses through subsidiaries SBS Transit (SGX: S61) and Vicom (SGX: WJP).  The impact of pandemic is much less than the airlines sector, mainly affected during circuit breaker time (Q2/2020) when most people stay at home.  Share price of ComfortDelgro was cut by nearly half during pandemic, then share price starts to recover from low Ein55 Optimism. Intrinsic value of ComfortDelgro is about $2.50, there is cyclic upside potential in share price with diminishing fear, supported by low community cases of COVID-19 in Singapore, allowing land transportation business to go back to normal. Vicom as a more defensive dividend stock (but dividend yield is moderate after rising in share prices after 4-to-1 stock split) with stable and predictable car inspection business (nearly monopoly, sharing the pie with ST Engineering which has STA car inspection centers), supplying critical cashflow to major shareholder, ComfortDelgro (2/3 ownership of Vicom). SBS Transit has become an asset light company after LTA changes of its business model a few years ago (focusing as transport operator with lower expenses and more predictable incomes), gradually become a giant stock but Ein55 Optimism level is relatively high, more suitable for trading, not yet for investing.

YangZiJiang (YZJ) is in shipbuilding industry, relatively stronger than most shipping or marine related stocks with decade long of winter time in this sector. Pandemic in fact helps the shipping industry due to more intercontinental shipping activities. Baltic Dry Index (BDI, a measurement of inflation for shipping industry) has been surging since pandemic, a bullish business signal.  However, YangZiJiang is cyclic in nature, limited growth in long term with moderate dividend yield (3%), more suitable for short term trading, especially when there is rising interest in shipping related stocks.

SIA is a truly crisis stock as airlines passengers drop more than 90%, even parent shareholder, Temasek has to take the lead to help with rights and bonds issues, in additional to Singapore government financial aids.  However, the risk of SIA is not limited to pandemic, the gradual weakening of airlines business was shown even over the last 10 years before pandemic due to competitive airlines industry (eg. price competition for similar flight from City A to City B), similar to another “grandparents blue chip” stock, Singapore Press Holdings – SPH (SGX: T39) with declining business due to less readers (who access free info including news from internet) gradually over the decade.  Despite both SIA and SPH are no longer giant stocks for longer term investing, they may be considered for short term trading (with trend-following strategies) due to speculation of recovery in pandemic, especially after their stock prices were cut by half during pandemic.

SATS is a spinoff company of SIA about 3 decades ago with about 60% airlines gateway business and 40% F&B business.  SATS is indirectly affected by COVID-19 for airlines related business but it can still be compensated by F&B business, therefore a better financial position than most airlines stocks.  In fact, SATS is relatively a better investing choice than SIA, considering both have about 50% price discount during pandemic but SATS has higher growth potential than SIA, therefore may be considered for both longer term investing (current price is only 15% below its intrinsic value) or even shorter term trading.

In fact, even an investor has a lousy stock with weak business fundamental, could not accept the fact of capital loss with “long term investing”, may apply the powerful “Change Horse” strategy, i.e. selling weaker stock, using the remaining capital recovered to buy another stronger stock on the same day. This is a psychological strategy to strengthen the mind of an investor (as if a stock is never sold, just changing its name), despite mistake could be made in the past, there is a second choice, no need to keep on holding to the same weaker stock, changing its future with a giant stock.

Readers may read earlier article (Mar 2020 during the worst time of pandemic with very low optimism prices) by Dr Tee for more details of “Change Horse” strategy (SATS and SIA as examples, assuming an investor only prefers airlines stock):
https://www.ein55.com/2020/03/change-horse-strategy-sia-to-sats/


8 Other Sectors STI Stocks (27% of STI):
==================================
– Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singtel (SGX: Z74), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34)

The remaining 8 STI stocks come from various industries: Genting Singapore (casino), Keppel Corp (property / oil & gas), ST Engineering (technology), Sembcorp Industries (utility / property), Singtel (telecommunication), Thai Beverage (F&B), Venture Corporation (technology, Wilmar (commodity).  They are aligned with average 3.3% weightage of each STI stock (100% / 30 stocks = 3.3% per stock), total 27% of STI by market cap for 8 stocks.  However, due to less STI stocks in these miscellaneous sectors, therefore changes in each sector do not significantly affect STI index.

For example, early stage of pandemic supports share prices of high-tech stocks globally but STI had little gain due to lack of high-tech stocks, lagging behind comparing with US NASDAQ or even Hong Kong HSI indices.  On the other hand, since global stock market currently value more on cyclic sectors (most of STI component stocks) with pandemic recovery, therefore STI is leading compared to global peers since early Year 2021.  So, it is a blessing in disguise for STI to be lagging, so that late comers still have chance to enter the stock market with higher reward to risk ratio.

Among these 8 other sectors STI stocks, Singtel and Wilmar have the largest market cap. Singtel is a Temasek stock, a defensive dividend stock but telco overseas business overseas (contributing to over 50% revenue) is not as stable as in Singapore, therefore share prices have been corrected lower over the past few years, even before pandemic. Before pandemic, telco industry has been too competitive, over-saturated market with lower profit margins, many global and local telco stocks are affected with declining business (Singtel is still relatively stronger than other telco stocks).  Although 5G technology could create a new wave of future business, most profits may go to smart phone / 5G leaders (eg. Apple, NASDAQ: AAPL) and semi-conductor (eg. TSMC, NYSE: TSM) supplier giant stocks. Singtel has started to recover from low Ein55 Optimism but not supported by growing business, may take more time to achieve intrinsic value of nearly $4.  “Buy Low” in share price without growing business may fall into value trap in longer term (Buy Low Get Lower), therefore careful monitoring of future Singtel business is required for long term investing. Singtel is more suitable for trading currently.

Wilmar is a strong fundamental commodity stock with steady growth in palm oil and sugar businesses, supported by PPB (KLSE: 4065) of Kuok Group as major shareholder (head of Kuok family is Robert Kuok, the richest person in Malaysia while nephew, Kuok Khoon Hong, is Wilmar Chairman), aligning with recovery of commodity market including palm oil and sugar prices from lower Ein55 Optimism (supported further by weakening of US dollar with QE during pandemic). Wilmar share price follows its intrinsic value closely, therefore little opportunity to Buy Low unless there is a global financial crisis in future. Wilmar subsidiary with cooking oil business, YKA, is a new IPO stock in China stock market (larger market cap than Wilmar now due to higher demand in China stock market), would help to support the parent stock in longer term. In general, Wilmar can be a steady defender stock but may not be suitable for those who aim for quick gains.

Remaining 6 other STI stocks, each has its own pros and cons. Genting Singapore is a crisis stock, share price is recovering well from low Ein55 Optimism but business is limited by lack of international tourists to Singapore (potential customers for gambling business which is the main profit generator).  Thai Beverage is a higher quality crisis stock, share price is recovering from very low optimism but beer business is not much affected by pandemic, short term price is affected due to recent news to delay IPO plan for its subsidiary, BeerCo. Thai Beverage’s intrinsic value is about $1, current price is about 30% below this fair value.

ST Engineering is a defensive technology stock, share price is recovering from low optimism in pandemic, near to its intrinsic value, more suitable for medium term dividend investing.  Venture is a cyclic technology stock, more suitable for Buy Low Sell High (currently at high Ein55 Optimism level), more suitable for trading, may not for long term investing. There is a potential of Version 2.0 Dotcom bubble (Version 1.0 was in Year 2000) due to over-price global technology giant stocks, therefore investing in high tech stocks require trend-following trading strategies due to very high optimism in many technology stocks which could be fine for a period of time with support of growing economy after pandemic is over.

Keppel Corp is not supported by Temasek partial acquisition last year but share prices recover gradually with improvement in oil prices during pandemic (after the worst time of negative oil price in May 2020), but business is still declining, mainly supported by property market (eg. Keppel Land and Keppel Reit). Despite Keppel Corp plans to exit from Oil & Gas sector eventually in future, it could still benefit from the recovery of oil market as Keppel Offshore & Marine division may be merged with Sembcorp Marine (SGX: S51), another Temasek crisis stock, which is demerged recently from Sembcorp Industries.  After demerging, Sembcorp Industries becomes a giant stock overnight (before demerging, 1/3 business was affected by subsidiary, Sembcorp Marine with losing business in oil & gas), share prices have recovered from low Ein55 Optimism in pandemic, near to its intrinsic value currently, supported mainly by growing land development business and defensive utility business.

Out of 30 STI Index stocks, there are 50% or 15 Temasek related stocks: DBS, Singtel, Sembcorp Industry, Keppel Corp, Keppel DC Reit, CapitaLand, CICT, SIA, SATS, ST Engineering, Singapore Exchange, Areit, MIT, MCT and MLT. Temasek as a major or significant shareholder, provides stability to business and even share prices to these Temasek stocks, especially during stock or business crisis (including non-STI stock such as Olam (SGX: O32) when it was attacked by Muddy Waters during shorting many years ago.

Readers may read earlier article (Aug 2020 during pandemic with low optimism prices) by Dr Tee for more details on 26 Temasek stocks, not limited to STI:
https://www.ein55.com/2020/08/temasek-giant-stocks-corporate-actions/

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Between knowledge (eg. reading this educational article of 30 STI stocks) and fortune (eg. making profits in stocks), there is a bridge to cross called Action (Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait or Shorting).  Before making any decision, reader may need to understand own personality, eg. short term trading or long term investing, risk tolerance level and reward expectation, etc, then aligned with the right strategies. Similar to each profession, stock trading and investment skills can be learned, even in a free way (you are doing the right way now) if one could put in effort consistently to learn and apply.

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There are over 1500 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar, you could ask on any global and local stocks including but not limited to 30 STI component stocks:

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

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Temasek Giant Stocks Corporate Actions (淡马锡股)

Having a strong sponsor or major shareholder is crucial for stock investment, especially during period of uncertainty such as COVID-19 stock crisis.  In this article, Dr Tee will review these 7 Temasek stocks with 4 major corporate actions:

1) Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4)

– Abandon of Partial Acquisition by Temasek

2) Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96) & Sembcorp Marine (SGX: S51)

– Successful Demerger under Temasek

3) Singapore Airlines, SIA (SGX: C6L)

– Impact of Rights & Bonds Issues for Survival

4) CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U) & CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U)

– Merger of CapitaLand (SGX: C31) Giant REITs with coming change in 30 STI component stock with Keppel DC REIT (SGX: AJBU)

Temasek helps to manage national wealth of Singapore, having over 40 stocks globally with about S$300B investment (淡马锡股). There are at least 26 Temasek / GLC stocks in Singapore, controlling shareholder with 15% or more ownership directly or indirectly:

Singtel (SGX: Z74), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), SIA Engineering (SGX: S59), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Sembcorp Marine (SGX: S51), Olam (SGX: O32), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Ascott Hospitality Trust (SGX: HMN), Ascendas Hospitality Trust (SGX: Q1P), CapitaLand Retail China Trust (SGX: AU8U), Ascendas-iTrust (SGX: CY6U), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Keppel Infrastructure Trust (SGX: A7RU), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree NAC Trust (SGX: RW0U).

Temasek stocks portfolio also affect about 15% of STI index stocks, which has strong impact on Singapore stock market. Here are 30 STI component stocks:
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), HongkongLand (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

At the same time, over the past 1 year, there are 4 major corporate actions in these Temasek stocks which worth review here.

1) Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4)

– Abandon of Partial Acquisition by Temasek

The partial acquisition offer by Temasek (increase ownership of Keppel Corp to 51% at price of $7.35/share) was initiated before COVID-19 stock crisis. Under this unprecedented health crisis, global stock market suffers 30-50% correction. Therefore, it does not make sense for Temasek to acquire Keppel Corp at premium price before COVID-19 crisis. 

Keppel Corp was making loss in Q2/2020, providing an option for Temasek to withdraw the acquisition as cash or capital may be more critical for other Temasek stocks during this period of uncertainty. Temasek could also use the money for other better investment, eg. recently increase stake in BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), a giant fund stock with $4.8B which is clearly stronger than Keppel Corp.

Despite it may be a sound decision for Temasek but other Keppel Corp shareholders could be disappointed with share prices falling below critical $5/share support, nearly last 10 years low. Keppel Corp is mainly supported by property segment of business as Oil & Gas segment has been making losses due to low optimism oil prices.

Keppel Corp stock investor may need to align decision making (sell or hold) with own personality. Current share price is low optimism, it would be “Sell Low”. The situation is different from SIA which is also at low optimism share prices but business is making loss. Keppel Corp still has strong property business while oil & gas has strong potential to recover with rising oil prices (higher demand with fading of COVID-19 threat).  It is also an option to copy Temasek action to “Change Horse” (Sell weaker Stock A, Buy stronger Stock B), eg. transferring the capital to invest in stronger giant stocks such as BlackRock.  Afterall, not all could be a patient long term investor for Keppel Corp to regain giant stock title as 10 years ago during bullish Oil & Gas sector.

Although with controlling ownership (over 51% shares), it may be easier to implement potential plan for merging of Keppel O&M with Sembcorp Marine but if outcomes are beneficial to both stocks, a major shareholding (21% of Keppel Corp) may be sufficient to initiate this potential corporate action in future.

2) Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96) & Sembcorp Marine (SGX: S51)

– Successful Demerger under Temasek

With abstain of voting by Sembcorp Industries and Temasek, the demerger during EGM is still successful, partly because there is no strong second major shareholder (less than 1% shareholding), especially for Sembcorp Marine.

Fundamentally, parent company Sembcorp Industries (with more defensive utilities and growing land development businesses) is much stronger than subsidiary Sembcorp Marine (declining Oil & Gas over the past 5 years) but 1/3 overlapping in accounting (revenue) has dragged down the share prices of Sembcorp Industries which is tied with the same boat under Oil & Gas crisis.

Therefore, after demerger, Sembcorp Industries share prices generally move higher while Sembcorp Marine is still at relative low price position. In medium term, Sembcorp Industries would become a “new company” without 1/3 negative Oil & Gas business.  In longer term, cyclic Oil & Gas sector could help Sembcorp Marine investors to have higher upside but patience is required.  In general, Sembcorp Industries and Sembcorp Marine are 2 very different type of stocks, differences in share prices would be clearer in future.

Again, Sembcorp stocks investors need to make decision (Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait, Shorting), aligning with own unique personality.  The world of stock market is large, over 1600 global giant stocks, there may be no need to “fall in love” with a stock for life.

3) Singapore Airlines, SIA (SGX: C6L)

– Impact of Rights & Bonds Issues for Survival

Airlines sectors has been in very critical condition, some airlines (without strong sponsor) even go bankrupt as passengers drop over 90% compare with before COVID-19, business could sustain more than 6 months. Vaccine development may take another 6-12 months before COVID-19 crisis could be over.

Impact on Singapore Airlines could be more severe during pandemic as it does not have domestic flights (Singapore is too small), therefore the Rights and Bonds issues came in right time to ensure the company could survive through the most critical 12 months period, before Singapore Airlines could fly again proudly.

However, even after the corporate action, SIA share prices continue to decline, about half price since the beginning of COVID-19, about 1/3 of peak prices (after adjustment of rights issues). In fact, Singapore Airlines business fundamental has been declining gradually over the past decade, not just during pandemic (sudden dip).  This is due to competitive airlines sector which need to provide good services (well known for SIA but at the price of higher cost) at lower price, therefore earnings and profit margin would be affected.

A stock investor needs to carefully select the right industry or sector for investment. During pandemic, healthcare and technology (eg. online / software solution) stocks would have higher chances to recover than airlines stocks. “Buy Low” is reasonable with condition a stock business fundamental is not much affected. It would be a rare opportunity if business of a stock is growing but share prices fall due to fear driven sales during global financial crisis.

4) CapitaLand Mall Trust, CMT (SGX: C38U) & CapitaLand Commercial Trust, CCT (SGX: C61U)

– Merger of CapitaLand (SGX: C31) Giant REITs with coming change in 30 STI component stock with Keppel DC REIT (SGX: AJBU)

CapitaLand is under Temasek portfolio, the 2 giant REITs, CMT and CCT will be merged by end of 2020 to become the third largest REIT in Asia (largest Asian REIT is Link Reit, HKEX: 823). A giant stock may not need to be large in size, internal business strength with strong economic moat is even more crucial.

Merging and demerging are neutral corporate actions, impact depends on the long term plans of major shareholders. Both CMT and CCT are defensive REITs which could generate steady passive incomes (about 5-6% dividend yield, depending on the share prices). However, the growth is slow (but steady), therefore an investor may position as a defender while diversifying capital over a portfolio of other giant stocks including mid-fielders (eg. growth stocks) and strikers (eg. cyclic stocks or momentum stocks).

When CMT and CCT are merged, would form a new stock, CICT with only 1 stock. Therefore, 30 STI index component would invite the next reserve stock, Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU) which is also a REIT but much stronger growth.  The best time to buy a growth stock is usually during global stock crisis (eg. COVID-19 pandemic) with great fear in the market but business continues to make money each month.

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A smart investor may carefully design a portfolio of global giant stocks (defenders, mid-fielders, strikers) while an experienced trader may take action following the trend with S.E.T. (Stop Loss, Entry, Target Prices) in trading plan.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar.

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com


Rights Issue and Demerger of Sembcorp Marine from Sembcorp Industries (难兄难弟)

Rights Issue Demerger Sembcorp Marine Sembcorp Industries Temasek Keppel Corp

Temasek stocks of Sembcorp Industries SGX: U96, parent stock) and Sembcorp Marine (SGX: S51, subsidiary stock) just announce 2 bundled corporate actions of rights issue for Sembcorp Marine and then demerger from Sembcorp Industries. In this article, Dr Tee will compare both Sembcorp stocks and share the possible causes and effects of such actions with deeper analysis.

Recently, Temasek stock of Singapore Airlines, SIA (SGX: C6L) just completed the rights and mandatory convertible bonds (MCB) issues to inject extra capital to save the company from Covid-19 crisis encountered in airlines sector with over 90% drop in number of flights. Temasek would become the sponsor to take up additional rights and bonds if not taken up by other shareholders.

Temasek may have modified the “rescue” recipe for another company (Sembcorp) which need helps under both Covid-19 and Crude Oil Crises.  Temasek owns 49.3% of Sembcorp Industries, a parent stock which subsequently owns 61% of Sembcorp Marine from oil & gas sector (see diagram).

The proposed corporate actions are bundle of 2 actions (see diagram), requiring both to pass together to be effective. Sharing here are for educational purpose, please make your own decision in investment.

Rights Issue Demerger Sembcorp Marine Sembcorp Industries Temasek
Rights Issue Demerger Sembcorp Marine Sembcorp Industries Temasek

1) 5-for-1 Rights Issue for Sembcorp Marine

There are a few ways to “borrow money” for a business, eg. borrowing from banks or issue bonds but this would increase the debt level (both Sembcorp Industries and Sembcorp Marine have relatively high level of debt over asset) and additional cost to business with interest of loans. Therefore, an alternative way is to “borrow” money from shareholders through rights issue as this strategy would not increase the debt level and no interest is required. However, if shareholders don’t welcome this move (may be under pressure to invest with new capital), they may reflect the negative sentiment with lower share prices which affect the market cap of company or hidden wealth of shareholders.

Sembcorp Marine hopes to raise S$2.1 billion under 5-for-1 renounceable rights issue at an issue price of $0.20 per share. Based on recent average price of $0.74 for Sembcorp Marine, the theoretical ex-rights price (TERP) is

TERP = [($0.20 x 5) + ($0.74 x 1)] / 6 = $0.29/share

Since the rights are renounceable (similar to previous SIA rights), current shareholders of Sembcorp Marine may either accept the rights (requires extra cash to invest more on this stock) or they could simply sell the rights in stock market at later stage if action is approved. 

Action of rights issue is a neutral corporate action, there is no right or wrong, decision partly depends on how the new capital is used (eg. paying debt, saving company or expanding the business, etc) and also whether a stock has strong business fundamental or strong sponsor.  Similar to SIA, Sembcorp Marine needs additional capital to cope with the current crisis which is even worse, not limited to shorter term Covid-19 crisis (affecting most sectors) but also longer term oil & gas crisis with bearish crude oil price (affecting most oil & gas companies, including Sembcorp Marine and Keppel Corp, SGX: BN4).

When crude oil market was bullish 10 years ago, Sembcorp Marine and Keppel Corp were still giant stocks, doing well with growing businesses. However, when crude oil price dropped from over US$100/barrel since Year 2015 to less than US$50/barrel over the past few years, businesses of Sembcorp Marine and Keppel Corp (business segment of Keppel O&M) turn to negative, becoming losses.

Sembcorp Marine revenue size is about 1/3 of Sembcorp Industries, seriously affecting the earnings of parent company, which could still remain profitable with support of other business segments (energy/utilities and urban) but it has been weaker over the past 5 years.  Keppel O&M (not listed) also contributes to most losses of Keppel Corp which is mainly supported by property segment. Due to prolonged oil & gas crisis over the past 5 years, these 3 Temasek stocks have lost the titles of giant stock (based on Dr Tee criteria): Sembcorp Industries, Sembcorp Marine and Keppel Corp.

Therefore, as a stock investor, decision of whether to take up rights issue is similar to additional investment, whether Sembcorp Marine worth investing. Currently crude oil market is still at low optimism but it is on recovery phase. It might take a few years for customers (oil producers) of Sembcorp Marine and also Keppel Corp (Keppel O&M) to become profitable and increase the capital investment. So, the cold winter of business might be much longer for Sembcorp Marine and Keppel O&M which could be a stopper for recovery of share prices despite at low optimism level.

Besides accepting / selling rights issue, current shareholders also have the option to sell the stock before corporate actions (but price may correct down if mass market views the action negatively).  If the action is “Sell”, a shareholder may not suffer permanent loss if knowing how to “Change Horse”, use the remaining capital (after selling) to “Buy” an oil & gas giant stock or even a non-crisis giant stock on the same day. During oil & gas crisis period of last few years, a few oil & gas companies actually profit from the crisis, eg. those related to oil storage.

Rights Issue Demerger Sembcorp Marine Sembcorp Industries Temasek

2) Demerger of Sembcorp Industries and Sembcorp Marine

Although Sembcorp Marine is only a subsidiary of Sembcorp Industries with 1/3 revenue but it contributed to most of the losses of parent company. From the chart below, it is shown that over the past 14 years (since 2006), both Sembcorp Industries and Sembcorp Marine behave more like siblings (难兄难弟), instead of parent-subsidiary relationship, having very close long term stock price trends (key difference is Sembcorp Marine is more volatile than Sembcorp Industries).

This implies 1/3 business connection of 2 Sembcorp stocks have contributed to nearly 90% strong correlation in share prices. Therefore, the proposal of demerger of 2 stocks would help Sembcorp Industries more in longer term. Sembcorp Industries shareholders would get compensation through dividend stocks of between 427 and 491 Sembcorp Marine shares for every 100 Sembcorp Industries shares owned. After demerging, since there is no connection in business, Sembcorp Industries would become more profitable (growing earnings contributed by energy/utilities and urban business segments) without affected by possible losses of Sembcorp Marine. Currently, Sembcorp Marine is as if a negative asset (contributing to losses) to Sembcorp Industries, therefore if parent company could sell away with some compensation, this would help Sembcorp Industries become a giant stock again.

After demerger, Temasek would become direct sponsors (major shareholder) for both companies which would become siblings or even cousins in Temasek family of stocks. The future losses of Sembcorp Marine would be sustained partially by Temasek, not by Sembcorp Industries anymore. In fact, energy/utilities (gas / power / water / waste / renewable energy) business of Sembcorp Industries are defensive in nature, would support the future share prices of “new” Sembcorp stock without “Marine” business segment. The smaller “Urban” segment (land and property development) is only 3% of company revenue but contributes to about 25% of company profits, a highly potential segment to grow further when “burden” of Marine is put aside.

To be fair to Sembcorp Marine, it is a stock with high potential but currently more suitable as crisis stock investing, implying if the potential losses in next few years could be sustainable (partly with help of rights issue), when crude oil price may be back to high optimism as 10 years ago, then Sembcorp Marine could outperform Sembcorp Industries. 

Therefore, after demerging, both Sembcorp stocks would be clearer in personalities with more unique businesses. Sembcorp Industries would be mainly suitable for gradual growth, defensive investor. Sembcorp would be more for crisis stock investor who view high volatility (both potential high losses and high gains) as main driver for capital gains. Of course, a stock investor also has the option not to consider either Sembcorp stocks by selling them or not considering at all.

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Current Sembcorp Industries and Sembcorp Marine shareholders have to make a few decisions in the next few months. With support of Sembcorp Industry as major shareholder, likely the rights issue of Sembcorp Marine could be approved. However, this action is conditional based on the approval by both Sembcorp Marine and Sembcorp Industries for the other action, acceptance of demerger of 2 companies, which both Sembcorp Industries and Temasek would abstain from voting.

In short, the bundled corporation actions ultimately depend on minority shareholders for approval, therefore it is fair from democracy point of view. After excluding Temasek and Sembcorp Industries which are 50-60% ownership in both stocks, remaining minority shareholders are scattered (some are big funds), a simple majority >50% votes is required for both companies to approve the entire package.

Therefore, it may be similar to an election process, hard to predict the outcome unless there is alliance or rally among the minority shareholders.  When 1 “party” feels in disadvantaged position, it may not approve, then whole deal would fail.

There are at least 26 Temasek / GLC stocks in Singapore including Sembcorp Industries and Sembcorp Marine, controlling shareholder with 15% or more ownership directly or indirectly:

Singtel (SGX: Z74), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), SIA (SGX: C6L), SIA Engineering (SGX: S59), SGX (SGX: S68), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Sembcorp Marine (SGX: S51), Olam (SGX: O32), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Ascott HTrust (SGX: HMN), Ascendas-hTrust (SGX: Q1P), CapitaR China Trust (SGX: Au8U), Ascendas-iTrust (SGX: CY6U), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Keppel Infrastructure Trust (SGX: A7RU), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree NAC Trust (SGX: RW0U).

Temasek stocks portfolio also affect about 15% of STI index stocks, which has strong impact on Singapore stock market. Here are 30 STI component stocks:
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), HongkongLand (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

The results of SIA rights issue and subsequently the Sembcorp resolutions, could give some direction of what possible actions to take for other Temasek stocks which may need help in business. Among the 30 STI component stocks with Temasek control (over 15% share ownership), these 4 Temasek stocks would need more help: Singapore Airlines, Sembcorp Industries (linked to Sembcorp Marine which was STI component stock before) and Keppel Corp.

So, regardless the outcome of Sembcorp actions, Temasek may also consider other options in future, eg. demerger of Keppel O&M from Keppel Corp, merging with Sembcorp Marine for cost saving of 2 oil & gas companies.  For all the actions, there is a positive common point, which they all have a strong sponsor, Temasek.  It is a bonus to have a strong sponsor but a business still needs good management with right strategies for each of the business sector. These performances would be reflected in both yearly financial reports and daily stock prices, especially for longer term trends. So, it may not be difficult for a stock investor to make a sound decision (Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait, Shorting), aligning the right Temasek stock with own personality, supported by growing business.

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On surface, this topic seems to be just on corporate actions of 2 Sembcorp stocks. When understanding further, it requires understanding of 2 current financial crisis, Crude Oil crisis and Covid-19 crisis, when they may end or fade away. When going to another deeper level, it may also involve political economy and global stock market, especially potential impact of US-China trade war. So, a stock investor should master at least 5 key LO-FTP strategies (Levels 1-4, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical, Personal Analysis).

There are 30 STI index component stocks including Sembcorp Industries (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

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5 Global Stock Exchanges Stocks (独占鳌头)

Singapore Exchange Stock HKEx ICE NASDAQ Bursa Malaysia

In this article, you will learn 5 global stock exchanges which are also giant stocks in respective countries with applications of 5 unique stock investing strategies.

1) Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68) – Singapore Stock Exchange Giant Stock

2) Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) – US NYSE Stock Exchange Giant Stock

3) Nasdaq Inc (NASDAQ: NDAQ) – US NASDAQ Stock Exchange Giant Stock

4) Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEx: 388) – Hong Kong Stock Exchange Giant Stock

5) Bursa Malaysia (Bursa: 1818) – Malaysia Stock Exchange Giant Stock

All stock trading activities (buy or sell) have to go through stock exchange, sometimes there is only 1 stock exchange, especially for smaller country such as Singapore, therefore having monopoly advantage (独占鳌头) as an economic moat for the stock exchange business. There is also low risk for a stock exchange to go bankrupt as it is too important to fail without support. Therefore, stock of a stock exchange in a country with growing economy may be considered for longer term investing.  However, stock performance of each stock exchange can be different, therefore requiring different strategies, eg. growth, cyclic, dividend, momentum, etc.

Business of stock exchanges are not limited to listing and trading of stocks (equities), may be extended to derivatives (eg. commodities / forex / indices – futures, options, etc), ETFs, bonds (fixed income) and other services.  Even a country (eg. US) may have a few stock exchanges but most global stocks only have 1 primary stock exchange for listing (eg. choosing between NYSE or NASDAQ stock exchanges), therefore it is still monopoly in nature (similar to certain show is only available in certain TV channel, no other choice for consumers).

Here, we will focus on 5 common global and local stock exchanges, ranked by market capitalization: No 1 (NYSE / ICE), No 2 (NASDAQ), No 6 (HKEx), No 21 (SGX) and No 25 (Bursa). US NYSE and NASDAQ alone, have already contributed to about 50% of the world stock value, usually are the first choice for global investors and institution in trading, as well as top 2 choices for potential IPO companies, having easy access to global capital to expand the businesses.

Singapore only contributes to about 1% of world stock value.  Therefore, Singapore stocks could not affect the US, but US stocks could affect Singapore and the whole world. So, even readers may be interested in 100% Singapore stocks, it is important to pay attention to US stocks and also US economy (also contributing to half of world economy).  Hong Kong & China (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges) contribute to about 10% of world stock value, not comparable with size of China as No 2 world economy.

Stock exchanges when listed as stocks, price movement is aligned with local economy and stock market index performance.  However, stock exchanges could make money in both bullish and bearish stock market as its business in equity is dependent on trading volume, not high or low of stock prices. Therefore, in recent global stock crisis with fear of Covid-19, trading volume surges to a high (initiated by fearful sellers who hope to sell stocks to minimize downside risk), contributing to strong earnings to exchanges stocks, even during pandemic period of Q1 2020.

1) Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68) – Singapore Stock Exchange Giant Stock

Singapore Exchange was formed in Year 1999 with merging of Stock Exchange of Singapore (SES), Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX) and Securities Clearing and Computer Services Pte Ltd (SCCS). Since listed in Year 2000, Singapore Exchange has initiated a series of expansion with acquisition, including Singapore Commodity Exchange (futures) and Baltic Exchange (freight indices). Temasek is the largest shareholder (23.3%) of Singapore Exchange, providing additional protection as a strong sponsor.  Japan Exchange is the second largest shareholder (3.4%) but investing Singapore Exchange with high share prices in bullish Year 2007.

Singapore Exchange reports improving business results over the past few years (under new CEO, Loh Boon Chye, since Year 2015), supporting its share prices to a new high over the past 10 years. Main earnings contributor is derivatives trading (eg. futures of commodity / forex / indices) which is about half of company net income, following by about 1/3 from equities (stocks), remaining are fixed income (eg. bonds) and other services. In addition, there are increasing customers outside Singapore / Asia, contributing to growing revenue, despite Singapore stock market may not be so active. There are about 800 stocks listed in SGX, an important source of income for Singapore Exchange through stock trading and clearing fees.

Singapore Exchange is the only stock in 30 STI component stocks not affected by recent global stock crisis with Covid-19. In fact, its current share price is even higher than before Covid-19, exceeding $10/share resistance before. Singapore Exchange is a strong fundamental stock with over 30% ROE over the past decade (no debt most of the time), setting a good example to share over 80% net income as dividend with shareholders (average about 3% dividend yield). It can be positioned as a “fixed deposit” stock (with 3% interest) as share prices have been within low optimism of $6-$8/share most of the time in the past decade.

With breakout of $8/share resistance over the past 1 year, Singapore Exchange has become a momentum stock for trading in short term to medium term. Breaking of each resistance (eg. $10/share, $11, etc) would become a signal for short term traders to Buy High Sell Higher (which requires strict S.E.T. trading plan: Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices). Singapore Exchange stock price is not aligned to STI index, diverging in short term, mainly due to different business performance during pandemic.  Some Singapore investors like to trade “safer” stocks with business supported by Covid-19, including trading business of SGX, some healthcare and supermarket stocks (eg. Sheng Siong, SGX: OV8), etc.

2) Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) – US NYSE Stock Exchange Giant Stock

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has 12 global exchanges, including New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the largest stock exchange in the world which has about 2800 stocks listed, many are big companies with global giant stocks could be found. Performance of ICE stock price is much better than US stock market index (eg. S&P 500), mainly contributed by its strong business growth with acquisition of other global and local exchanges.

Dr Tee has been to NYSE (11 Wall Street) stock exchange in New York, twice over the past 3 decades. The famous Charging Bull sculpture is nearby, remembering the 1987 Black Monday stock crisis.  Indeed, human has proven that every global financial crisis could be overcome eventually, including the current Covid-19 crisis. Even the trading floor of NYSE was closed for a period of time during pandemic but modern online trading has overcome this weakness easily.

ICE is strong in earnings and cash flow with consistent growth over the decade, suitable to position for growth investing, leveraging on long term growth of US / world economy.  Covid-19 induced global stock crisis has corrected ICE share price by 1/3 but it has been recovering well, aligning to US stock market. ICE could be an alternative investment to US indices (eg. S&P 500 or NASDAQ) as its performance in shorter term is similar but much better in longer term.

3) Nasdaq Inc (NASDAQ: NDAQ) – US NASDAQ Stock Exchange Giant Stock

Nasdaq stock (NDAQ) has 9 global exchanges, including NASDAQ stock exchange in US and 8 other exchanges in Europe (major shareholder of NASDAQ is Swedish Wallenberg family through Investor AB). NASDAQ is the second largest stock exchange in the world which has about 3300 stocks listed, many are technology companies with global giant stocks could be found. Performance of NASDAQ stock (NDAQ) price is aligned with US stock market index (eg. S&P 500 & NASDAQ), having strong business fundamental but at the prices of relatively higher liability.

NDAQ stock is highly cyclic in prices, aligning with volatile prices of technology sector stocks within NASDAQ stock exchange.  After the burst of technology bubble in Year 2000, NASDAQ stock index dropped to 1/3 of value and NDAQ stock was cut by half in share prices.  Covid-19 induced global stock crisis has corrected NDAQ share price by about 40% but it has been recovering well, aligning to US stock market. NDAQ stock could be an alternative investment to NASDAQ stock index as its long term growth performance is stronger and less volatile than index.

4) Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEx: 388) – Hong Kong Stock Exchange Giant Stock

History of Hong Kong stock market is longer than 100 years. So, Hong Kong stock exchange is more mature and closely regulated than younger stock exchanges of Shanghai and Shenzhen in China.  It has experienced British administration (100 years before Year 1997 when returning to China), therefore there is strong western styles in financial system.  Despite Shanghai has emerged has new financial center for China, Hong Kong is always the main financial gateway to the western world, especially through the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEx) is a strong growth stock, share price over the past 2 decades has surged by 27 times from $10 to $270/share, partly due to historical opportunity of Hong Kong united with growing China after Year 1997, as well as connection of HKEx with Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, allowing capital to flow between Hong Kong and mainland China.  So, HKEx has become the first choice of stock exchange for IPO for some Asian companies who could easily leverage on capital from China and US investors, if not considering NYSE or NASDAQ stock exchanges.

A few years ago, Dr Tee has visited the building of Hong Kong Stock Exchange at The Exchange Square (building is owned by a property giant stock, Hongkong Land, listed in SGX: H78). However, most of the trading are done online, therefore the physical trading floor is closed permanently since Year 2017, the current Covid-19 crisis does not affect the electronic transaction.  In fact, Singapore and global investors could invest in Hong Kong stocks easily with pressing of a few buttons in online trading.  There is no withholding tax for dividends of Hong Kong stocks (unlike US stocks require 30% withholding tax for dividends to foreign investors). So, HKEx could gain from both global and local stock investors.

HKEx stock is still strong growth in business but the growth in share prices is slower, therefore entering low optimism in long term. Similar to SGX stock in the past decade (ranging between $6-$8/share for cyclic trading), HKEx stock is still suitable for medium term cyclic trading to Buy Low Sell High every few years, following medium term optimism strategy. Performance of HKEx stock is aligned with Hang Seng stock index in short term but performing much better in longer term.

5) Bursa Malaysia (Bursa: 1818) – Malaysia Stock Exchange Giant Stock

Bursa is Malaysia stock exchange has about 800 stocks listed, many are local companies with businesses in Malaysia. Therefore, there are many local stocks in sectors such as agriculture, plantation and manufacturing.  So, a stock with such business may not do well in Singapore (due to higher cost of business operation) but could become a giant stock in Malaysia due to unique local advantage.  So, the choice of giant stocks in each stock exchange is different, promising sectors could be country dependent.

Bursa stock (1818) is more cyclic in nature (suitable with Buy Low Sell High, applying long term optimism strategy), falling by nearly half (relative to peak price) in recent Covid-19 global stock crisis, just recovering from long term low optimism.  Bursa stock performance is much stronger than KLCI stock index, recovering to price before Covid-19. Fundamentally, Bursa stock is stagnant in business growth, therefore may not be suitable for long term investing. However, there are many other giant stocks within Bursa stock exchange worth consideration for long term.

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There are 30 STI index component stocks including Singapore Exchange (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

Stock exchange is a gateway for businesses to leverage on enormous capital from local and global investors through stock trading and investing.  Stock performance of a stock exchange is also a reflection of a country stock market strength and economy growth, especially over a longer term. A smart investor may consider to invest in stock exchange stock directly (usually lower risk due to its unique financial role, especially if it is a monopoly stock) or having the choice to invest in individual giant stocks listed under the stock exchange.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 members.

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4 Mapletree / Temasek Giant REITs (一叶知秋)

Mapletree Trust, MCT, MIT, MLT, MNACT, Temasek, REIT

Mapletree Investment is 100% owned by Temasek, a company with strength in private property funds and managing 4 Singapore giant REITs:

1) Mapletree Logistics Trust, MLT (SGX: M44U) – Giant Logistic REIT

2) Mapletree Industrial Trust, MIT (SGX: ME8U) – Giant Industrial REIT

3) Mapletree Commercial Trust, MCT (SGX: N2IU) – Giant Commercial REIT

4) Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust, MNACT (SGX: RW0U) – Giant Commercial REIT

Learn further on how to position in these 4 Singapore REITs after cross comparison. MLT and MCT are 30 STI component stocks while MIT is the next to consider in reserve list for STI.

1) History & Sponsor

Among the 4 Mapletree REITs, MLT is the longest history in stock market (listed in year 2005), following by IPOs of MIT (Year 2010), MCT (Year 2011) and MNACT (Year 2013).  Despites all the 4 REITs are giant stocks (according to Dr Tee criteria) but 3 of them are relatively young giant stocks, only MLT has experienced the last Global Financial Crisis in Year 2008-2009 with share prices dropped by over 70%.  Mapletree has 6 other private property funds which may be listed as well in future, following similar REIT model.

In the recent global stock crisis in Mar 2020, all these 4 REITs are corrected by about 40% (MNACT is even cut by half for share price due to additional fear when Coronavirus was first started in China in Jan 2020).  Nevertheless, the scale of recent stock price correction is still not comparable with 2008-2009 subprime crisis.  During a global financial crisis, it is important to have a strong sponsor, which 4 REITs have: Mapletree Investment which is 100% owned and supported by Temasek.

In short, the main risk of 4 REITs is with cyclical stock prices due to economic cycle (i.e. potential capital loss, especially during global financial crisis), not so much on business risks.  When Coronavirus crisis is over or fading away, tenants would resume the business, continue to pay for the committed rentals.

2) Type of REITs

All the 4 REITs have different focuses of industries and countries, eg. MLT is on logistic REIT (Singapore / global), MIT is on industrial REIT (Singapore / global), MCT is on commercial / retail REIT (Singapore) and MNACT is on commercial REIT in North Asia (Hong Kong, China, Japan).

Geographically, each country has different economic performance but most of the REITs portfolios are in Singapore and Asia which have been growing over the past decades.  REITs focus on rental collection, therefore tenant stability (ability to pay rental with agreements) are related to economic cycles of each country. REITs usually are diversified over a portfolio of clients, tenants from different industries, therefore risk is relatively lower.

The current Coronavirus crisis has limited impact, even during lockdown period, property owner (REITs) can still collect most of the rental (partially supported by local government) but distribution of dividend may not be on time for Q1/Q2 2020 as REITs may reserve some cash for planning during the uncertain Year of 2020. For longer term investor who could hold more than 1 year, this should not be an issue as dividend kept (if any) would be distributed back to shareholders at later time.

3) Business

Fundamentally, all these 4 REITs are strong, disruption of Coronavirus crisis has limited impact. The dividend yields are currently around 4+% for MLT, MIT and MCT, below the minimum expectation of 5% for dividend investing (which is achievable if an investor could take action in Mar or Apr 2020 when share prices were under 30-40% correction, this window of opportunity is closed when over half of the correction is recovered with V-shape recovery in share prices).  MNACT still has 8+% dividend yield, mainly due to heavy correction in share prices (50%), recovering slower (less than 30% of total correction) than the other 3 REITs. 

Mapletree REITs are more suitable for positioning as midfielders, both capital gains (mainly for trading when stock market trend is more bullish in short term to medium term) and moderate dividend yield as bonus (about 3-4% is fine).  For long term investing, entry of Mapletree REITs or any giant dividend stock has to be aligned with STI or world stock market at low optimism, usually during a Global Financial Crisis.

Since Mapletree Investment strength is in property development and management, a good REIT manager would help to improve dividend yield with new property into REIT portfolio.  These 4 REITs have gearing ratio less than 40%, still having potential to grow bigger, especially for MCT (only 33% gearing ratio, far below 45% maximum gearing ratio allowed by current law). MCT is more concentrated in Singapore, benefiting from government plan on “Greater Southern Waterfront”, Vivo City contributing to about 1/3 of revenue.  Concentration could be viewed as a risk or an opportunity, depending on whether the focused properties are higher or lower quality.

Interestingly, 3 out of 4 REITs CEOs are female for MLT, MCT and MNACT.  REITs are relatively stable businesses, delivery of committed goals are key for any CEO, whether male or female management. The best judgement of a new management performance is through positive financial report of at least 3 years.

4) Timing & Return

The best time to buy a giant REIT is usually during crisis. The only question is how low is low to buy a stock. Therefore, dividend yield >5% is a reasonable criteria for dividend stock investor. A giant REIT or dividend stock investor may also consider entry in batches (if afraid of buy low get lower in share price), entering for every 10% or X% lower in share prices. 

In fact, an investor of REIT is similar to a REIT manager who consistently looks for better properties at lower prices to maximize the passive income with higher yield. It is much easier for a stock investor, just need to click a button to buy a stock to invest. However, since it is so easy, some investors may not consider properly: What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

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There are at least 26 Temasek / GLC stocks in Singapore including these 4 Mapletree stocks, controlling shareholder with 15% or more ownership directly or indirectly (investor has to focus only on giant Temasek stocks):
Singtel (SGX: Z74), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), SIA Engineering (SGX: S59), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Sembcorp Marine (SGX: S51), Olam (SGX: O32), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Ascott Hospitality Trust (SGX: HMN), Ascendas Hospitality Trust (SGX: Q1P), CapitaLand Retail China Trust (SGX: AU8U), Ascendas-iTrust (SGX: CY6U), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Keppel Infrastructure Trust (SGX: A7RU), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree NAC Trust (SGX: RW0U).

Temasek stocks portfolio also affect about 15% of STI index stocks, which has strong impact on Singapore stock market. Here are 30 STI component stocks:
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), HongkongLand (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

Dr Tee likes leaves of maple trees, still remember the first leaf collected about 3 decades ago in fall season when studying in US.  When the maple tree leaves turn into red color, it is a spectacular view, making fall or autumn as the most beautiful season (northeast of US near Canada and also Japan have nice views of maple trees during the fall). Change in leaves colors (一叶知秋) is similar to stock investment, showing the investment clock with 4 seasons, an important skill to master on how to take 4 actions: Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait. When an investor knows What Giant Stocks to buy, the remaining questions are simply When to Buy/Sell and How Much to Buy/Sell (position sizing, entry/exit in batches).

There are other giant REITs in Singapore and globally which an investor may consider beyond these 4 Mapletree REITs. Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 members.

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7 CapitaLand Giant REITs for Dividend (CMT + CCT = CICT) (双剑合璧)

CapitaLand Giant REITs for Dividend

CapitaLand is Temasek property giant stock, having 2 giant Singapore REITs: CapitaLand Mall Trust (CMT) and CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CCT). Many Singapore investors like REITs for passive income generation through quarterly dividend payment. After the announcement of merging, both REITs suffer about 40% price correction during global stock crisis with Coronavirus fear, dividend yields are more than 6%, attractive for long term investors.

Some potential REIT investors would like to know should they invest in CMT or CCT before the merging, which one has more potential, or should they wait until the merging of 2 REITs into CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT), the largest Singapore REIT by June 2020.

Read the article further to find out the critical answers for CMT and CCT, not learning only 2 REITs but all 7 stocks related to parent stock CapitaLand, including 4 REITs and trusts in the same group: Ascendas REIT, Ascott Residence Trust, Ascendas India Trust and CapitaLand Retail China Trust.

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CapitaLand is the largest property developer in Asia (after merging with Ascendas and Singbridge), becoming a key Temasek property investment portfolio.  CapitaLand has total of 6 REITs / Business Trust in Singapore:

1) CapitaLand (SGX: C31) – Singapore Property Giant Stock

2) CapitaLand Mall Trust, CMT (SGX: C38U) – Retail REIT Giant Dividend Stock

3) CapitaLand Commercial Trust, CCT (SGX: C61U) – Office REIT Giant Dividend Stock

4) Ascendas REIT (SGX: A17U) – Industrial REIT Giant Dividend Stock

5) Ascott Residence Trust (SGX: HMN) – Hospitality REIT Dividend Stock

6) Ascendas India Trust (SGX: CY6U) – Business Trust Dividend Stock

7) CapitaLand Retail China Trust (SGX: AU8U) – Retail REIT Dividend Stock

In summary, all 7 CapitaLand group of stocks have reasonable strong business fundamental, all 6 REITs / trusts may be considered for dividend investing but only 3 of them are giant REITs stocks (based on Dr Tee giant criteria): CMT, CCT and Ascendas REIT. Sibling stocks of Ascott Residence Trust, Ascendas India Trust and CapitaLand Retail China Trust are relatively weaker, more suitable for pure dividend investing but subject to cyclic stock market risk (eg. capital loss during global stock crisis with limited long term growth). Parent stock, Capitaland, is a blue chip stock, behaving as if a fund with all the subsidiary stocks, more suitable for low capital investor who needs diversification.

There are 30 STI index component stocks including CapitaLand Mall Trust and CapitaLand Commercial Trust (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), HongkongLand (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

By law, 90% of REIT incomes has to be redistributed back to shareholders in the form of dividend, therefore it is a popular passive income generator. If a REIT pay 4 times yearly, an investor with 3 REITs could receive 12 payments yearly, helping to offset monthly expenses. When return from monthly dividend is more than monthly expenses, an investor would become financial free. However, certain REITs may not pay consistent dividend due to unstable business and a few could even go bankrupt if not properly managed. Business Trust (eg. Ascendas India Trust) seems similar to REIT but it is not required by law to pay dividend, therefore creating an uncertainty in the future which dividend payment is not guaranteed.

In this article, we will focus on 2 giant REITs, CMT and CCT which will be merged soon. Sharing is for educational purpose, please make your own decision. Before merging announcement, CMT performs relatively better than CCT from overall investing consideration.  So, CCT investors would benefit more than CMT investor.

CapitaLand Giant REITs for Dividend CCT CMT

The merging deal is for CMT to acquire CCT by exchange every share of CCT with 0.72 share of CMT + cash $0.259/share.  Since the announcement from 22 Jan 2020 until today, CMT and CCT share prices are closely correlated as mirror image with this formula:

CCT = 0.72 CMT + 0.259

It means after the merging announcement, there is not much difference now as CMT and CCT prices movement of stocks follow the equation above closely. Even if an investor is interested in CMT, the decision of whether to invest now or after official merging in June 2020, should be based on stock market outlook, not expecting any drastic change in share price after the official merging.  In fact, over the past 2 months of global stock crisis, both CMT and CCT dropped by about 40% in share prices, even after recovering in the last few weeks, CMT is still at low optimism < 25%. In general, before merging, CMT is more defensive while CCT is more cyclic, therefore future CICT REIT may behave in between both REITs, more cyclic than CMT, more defensive than CCT.

Coronavirus pandemic has affected both CMT and CCT as some tenants may not pay rents on time but this could be recovered later when Coronavirus has ended or fading away over the next few months.  Occupancy rates of both REITs are high (about 99%), any withdrawal by tenant (eg. a few weaker F&B or consumer companies may not be able to sustain) may be quickly replaced by new tenant but rental increase would be limited. If Coronavirus is not a long term issue (under the worst case, vaccine could be developed in about 1 year), major correction in share prices for either CMT or CCT could be an opportunity to accumulate with dividend yield around 6%. Assuming the worst case of losing 20% tenants (dropping from 99% to 80% occupancy) if Coronavirus may stay for 1 more year with 20% people in the world staying at home during lockdown, average dividend yield is correct to around 5%, still better than keeping cash in bank with only 1% dividend. When crisis is over, an investor could enjoy the capital gains with potential share price appreciation due to market greed.

Before merging, CMT and CCT already has joint portfolio, eg. Raffles City (40% CMT, 60% CCT). After merging, the new CICT REIT would dominate both retail shopping malls and offices in Singapore, having more capital to expand in overseas.  However, inorganic growth through more acquisition (eg. overseas properties) may or may not add value to CICT as it depends on expertise of REIT manager, able to find high quality properties at discounted prices (eg. during economic crisis), adding more potential to DPU (dividend per unit). Over expansion sometimes may result in higher risk (higher gearing ratio, which would become higher after merging as CMT has to pay some cash to CCT investors) but acceptable for CICT with dual level sponsors of CapitaLand and Temasek.

There could be more merging and acquisition activities during the global stock crisis. A giant stock does not need to be the “biggest” company, more importantly, strong in fundamental with growing business, therefore even a small company could be a giant stock.

A smart investor may consider only the strongest subsidiary giant stock of CapitaLand group, which is protected by the sponsor CapitaLand, which is further protected by another bigger sponsor, Temasek.  This implies for the giant stock to fail (eg. go bankrupt), it has to hurt CapitaLand or even Temasek first.  However, safer stocks may not be the best choice for investment as growth are limited.

There are 52 REITs and Business Trusts stocks including CapitaLand Mall Trust and CapitaLand Commercial Trust (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
AIMS APAC Reit (SGX: O5RU), ARA Hospitality Trust USD (SGX: XZL), ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust (SGX: K2LU), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Ascendas India Trust (SGX: CY6U), Ascott Trust (SGX: HMN), Asian Pay Tv Trust (SGX: S7OU), BHG Retail Reit (SGX: BMGU), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Retail China Tr (SGX: AU8U), CDL Hospitality Trust (SGX: J85), Cromwell Reit EUR (SGX: CNNU), Cromwell Reit SGD (SGX: CSFU), Dasin Retail Trust (SGX: CEDU), Eagle Hospitality Trust USD (SGX: LIW), EC World Reit (SGX: BWCU), Elite Commercial Reit (SGX: MXNU), ESR-REIT (SGX: J91U), Far East Hospitality Trust (SGX: Q5T), First Reit (SGX: AW9U), Frasers Centrepoint Trust (SGX: J69U), Frasers Hospitality Trust (SGX: ACV), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), FSL Trust (SGX: D8DU), HPH Trust SGD (SGX: P7VU), HPH Trust USD (SGX: NS8U), IREIT Global (SGX: UD1U), Keppel Infrastructure Trust (SGX: A7RU), Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT (SGX: CMOU), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), Lendlease Reit (SGX: JYEU), Lippo Malls Trust (SGX: D5IU), Manulife Reit (SGX: BTOU), Mapletree Commmercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (SGX: RW0U), NetLink NBN Trust (SGX: CJLU), OUE Commercial Reit (SGX: TS0U), ParkwayLife Reit (SGX: C2PU), Prime US Reit (SGX: OXMU), RHT HealthTrust (SGX: RF1U), Sabana Reit (SGX: M1GU), Sasseur Reit (SGX: CRPU), Soilbuild Business Space Reit (SGX: SV3U), SPH Reit (SGX: SK6U), Starhill Global Reit (SGX: P40U), Suntec Reit (SGX: T82U), United Hampshire US Reit (SGX: ODBU).

Learn from Dr Tee 4hr Free investment course on global dividend giant stocks to collect passive income during low optimism in stock crisis, then enjoying capital gains with growing share prices when crisis is over.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 members.

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Temasek Acquires Crisis Stock Keppel Corp (趁虚而入)

Temasek acquires Keppel Corp BN4 stock

Temasek has offered partial acquisition to Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4) shareholders at the price of $7.35/share up to 51% ownership over 1 year period (with some conditions applied). Since this is not a full acquisition, some investors may be confused of what is fair price for Keppel Corp. Let’s study this acquisition offer in details.

Temasek owns 20.45% of Keppel Corp, intending to purchase shares owned by remaining shareholders (100 – 20.45% = 79.55%) to top up to 51% (still need 51% – 20.45% = 30.55%). So, it is partial acquisition of 30.55/79.55 = 38.4%. It means for every 1000 shares, 384 unit will be acquired.

The offer price of Temasek at $7.35 is about 20% premium over the average price before acquisition, aligned with several other acquisitions in Singapore. However, it only has 38.4% power, not the same as 100% power as other full acquisition (eg. Breadtalk current acquisition offer of $0.77, price would surge near to this price overnight after the announcement). Assuming the Keppel Corp share price is $5/share (on certain day), the theoretical share price after 38.4% partial acquisition = $5 + (7.35 – $5) x 0.384 = $5.90/share. Reader may replace this equation of $5 share price with any latest share price of Keppel Corp before acquisition.

Over the past 1 month of global stock crisis, Singapore stocks fall by about 30% in average but Keppel Corp only falls about 20%, aligning with 38.4% potential acquisition by Temasek which is about 1/3, therefore the stock corrections is also reduced by about 1/3 from 30% to 20%.

It means the global stock crisis still has about 60% impact on Keppel Corp prices. Therefore, an investor has to make decision mainly based on global stock crisis and current stock market condition with Keppel Corp value, not to assume price would recover to $7.35/share price eventually.

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Keppel Corp is a diversified corporation with 4 businesses: offshore &marine, property, infrastructure and investment. The 2 main pillars are Property (Keppel Land, contributing to about 50% company profits) and Oil & Gas (Keppel O&M, main source of losses over the past few years). Over the past 5 years after the oil price fell from $100 to $27/barrel, Keppel Corp suffers directly as main clients reduce the capital expenditure (eg. oil rigs), therefore Oil & Gas becomes a losing segment. 

Since 2015 crude oil crisis, Keppel Corp has temporary lost the giant stock title, currently a marginal giant (likely will become giant stock again after oil & gas sector recovery). Luckily Keppel Corp still has 50% earnings from Property (eg. Keppel Land and Keppel Reit), even Oil & Gas is a loss for several years (recovering to small profits in last 1 year), the entire company as a whole could still make a profit. Compared with competitor or sibling, Sembcorp Marine (SGX: S51, also owned by Temasek through Sembcorp Industries) which has full risk exposure to oil & gas crisis, losing money for several years, resulting in share prices falling from $5 to $0.70 (last 17 years low).

Some may think it is “cheaper” to invest in Sembcorp Marine stock (85% correction) compared to Keppel Corp stock ($13 falling to $5/share during oil & gas crisis, about 60% correction). This comparison is only valid if both companies are giant stocks (which are not) because “crisis is not opportunity” if business fundamental is weak, eg for the case of Sembcorp Marine. For Keppel Corp, it is still a 50% giant stock due to strong property business. Therefore, investor of Keppel Corp is actually investing in value of Keppel Corp property (main value) while taking advantage of falling share price (due to Oil & Gas crisis). It was a good move in year 2015 (beginning of oil & gas crisis) for Keppel Corp to offer full acquisition of Keppel Land which 100% profits of property business goes to Keppel Corp, offset the losses in Oil & Gas segment in Keppel O&M.

Assuming Temasek could successfully own 51% of Keppel Corp by end of 2020, it is a full control of company. This may allow possibilities of strategic merging of Temasek subsidiaries companies (eg. Keppel O&M and Sembcorp Marine) or restructuring of Temasek companies, eg. Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Industries (Temasek nearly has 50% control), etc, to maximize the asset values.

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During crude oil crisis with Keppel Corp at low optimism prices, Temasek leverages on crisis to have majority control of Keppel Corp at reasonable low price of $7.35/share. This also provides an option for Keppel Corp investors to sell for 20% profit. However, the global stock crisis has disturbed the plans as prices of Keppel Corp are falling even lower than before acquisition news. 

Analysis on Keppel Corp is beyond stock and Temasek, also requires understanding of property market and crude oil commodity market. So, it is a stock with complicated interactions of market signals, reflecting in final share prices. 

Temasek acquires Keppel Corp BN4

Here is a special Ein55 style, 50% Discount Method for investing in Keppel Corp during crisis (with or without Temasek acquisition) with multiple entries to fight against unknown market crisis ahead. Assuming $10 is a common high level prices (occurred during when economy and crude oil market are bullish), an investor may apply 50% discount in prices each time before each multiple low due several unforeseen market crisis.

$10 = High Level Price (potential future selling price level)

$5 = Crude Oil & Stock Crisis (3 times in 2009, 2016, 2020) after 50% discount x $10

$2.50 = Global Financial Crisis (17 years low) after another 50% discount x $5

$1.25 = Great Depression (20 years low) after another 50% discount x $2.50

This is a non-linear version of multiple entries for very conservative investor who hopes to buy low but afraid of prices could get lower. Assuming all the crisis come (hopefully not), this is average price after 3 entries (like Keppel Corp with property pillar could still survive):

($5 + $2.50 + $1.25) / 3 = $2.92

This is lower than using linear average down method at low optimism (assuming 3 entries with $1 lower each time):

($5 + $4 + $3) / 3 = $4

Each method (linear or non-linear 50% discount) has its benefits. Linear method is more likely to achieve in practical market, for those who wish to reduce downside risk through averaging (eg. 3 times x 33% capital). Non-linear method is for very conservative investor, demanding 50% discount each time before willing to take out precious cash from the pocket for investment. During the long holding period (could be 1-3 years, depending on severity of crisis), Keppel Corp investor may be given an average of 4-5% dividend yield (past 10+ years record), assuming the dividend is also cut by 50% due to crisis, one could still get about 2% dividend yield which is higher than fixed deposit in banks with 1% interest rate. After the crisis is over, assuming the average entry price is only $5 (only 1 crisis experienced), an investor may not need to sell at $10 average high prices for 100%, could even sell near to Temasek fair acquisition price of $7.35 which is over 40% higher than $5 price.

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Charlie Munger (partner of Warren Buffett) said the big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting. Global stock crisis may happen only every 5 to 10 years. Similar to a lion ambushed, waiting patiently for target, when opportunity comes near, only then strike for higher chance of winning. It is the same for current global stock crisis, for investors “ambushed” for many years, it could be the right time to plan for a strategy to take action in stocks.

Frankly speaking, there are over 100 global giant property stocks and 44 global oil & gas giant stocks (based on Dr Tee criteria), which are much stronger than Keppel Corp. Some of these giant stocks are also falling in prices 20% – 50% recently, “Crisis is Opportunity” investing in these growing business (value) with significant discount in prices.

There are at least 26 Temasek / GLC stocks in Singapore including Keppel Corp, controlling shareholder with 15% or more ownership directly or indirectly (investor needs to focus only on giant Temasek stocks):
Singtel (SGX: Z74), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), SIA Engineering (SGX: S59), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Sembcorp Marine (SGX: S51), Olam (SGX: O32), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Ascott Hospitality Trust (SGX: HMN), Ascendas Hospitality Trust (SGX: Q1P), CapitaLand Retail China Trust (SGX: AU8U), Ascendas-iTrust (SGX: CY6U), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Keppel Infrastructure Trust (SGX: A7RU), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree NAC Trust (SGX: RW0U).

Temasek stocks portfolio also affect about 15% of STI index stocks, which has strong impact on Singapore stock market. Here are 30 STI component stocks:
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), HongkongLand (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

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Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 members.

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Temasek Dividend Stock Singtel (掌上明珠)

Temasek Dividend Stock Singtel

Temasek invests in about 40 global stocks, the largest investment by market capitalization is in Singtel (52% shareholding), jewel in the crown. Singtel (SGX: Z74) is not just the fixed deposit of Temasek (through consistent dividend payment for decades), also cash generator for over 1 millions Singaporeans who are Singtel retail investors, the most popular stock in Singapore.

Over the past few years, due to competitive global and local Telco industry (eg. new player TPG in Singapore, uncertain regional markets), despite Singtel is more defensive than other peers, share prices has dropped by half from the peak of $4.40 to $2.28/share (about 30% price dip was over the past 2 months of global stock crisis). This is relatively stronger compare with local competitor Starhub (SGX: CC3) with share prices drop to about 1/3 of peak price. Even M1 was acquired and delisted during this period. TPG is listed in Australia (ASX: TPM), share price has also dropped by half over the past few years.

So, this is not Singtel stock crisis (Level 1 – individual stock), rather, it is Level 2 crisis (Telco sector) and even Level 3 crisis (country level – Singapore and most Asian stock markets).

Singtel is not just a Telco giant of Singapore, also a major regional Telco in Asia Pacific (Australia, India, philippines, Indonesia). It has diversification geographically, but also suffer uncertainty in each country (eg. legal cases in Thailand and India which affect its last few quarters of earnings).

Telco industry used to be a defensive sector as usually only a few licenses are given in each country for Telco operators, nearly a sure-win oligopoly business. Introduction of smart phones in 2000s, following by 3G, 4G, etc, has helped Telco industry to grow further over the past 2 decades. The yearly capex (difference of operating cashflow and free cashflow) is usually stable, therefore Singtel’s consistent earnings have contributed to stable free cashflow, eventually predictable dividend payment 2 times yearly to shareholders for decades, about 4-5% average dividend yield over the past 10 years, better than fixed deposit interest rates of 1-2% in banks.

With recent global stock crisis, Singtel share price has dropped to 11 years low, approaching the last low recorded in 2009 global financial crisis. Singtel will announce 2020 final year report (financial year ending 31 Mar 2020) in a few months time but results are predictable to be much weaker than last year due to losses in Bharti (India investment) and weaker earning over the past 2 quarters (especially with Coronavirus).

Singtel is defensive partly because it is a major Telco operator, price competition could affect its earning but few people may terminate the mobile phone lines in this internet era. During global financial crisis, perhaps some people may cut 3 meals into 1 meal to save cost but likely will still keep the phone line which is the meal of “soul’.

This implies despite Singtel has more downside in both business (especially for the coming 2020 annual report) and stock prices (especially if Coronavirus is beyond control, resulting in global financial crisis), it is unlikely the company would go bankrupt with share price dropping to $0. Singtel is a dividend giant stock, current dividend yield is nearly 7%. Assuming the earnings, cashflow and dividend available may drop by 50% (due to 1-time loss in Bharti), there is still 3.5% dividend yield.

Singtel Z74 SGX Historical Stock Price

An investor who is interested in Singtel may apply progressive entries at low optimism level, eg 5 times x 20%. Assuming $2.50/share is the first trigger at low optimism. and investor may consider (just a sample investing plan, not a personal financial advice, please make your own decision):

$2.50 or $X – First Entry (Level 1-3 crisis)

$1.50 or $Y – Second Entry (Level 4 crisis)

$0.50 or $Z – Third Entry (Great Depression, when people cut from 3 meals to 1 meal, still cannot survive, Telco is no longer important)

Assuming 3 levels of crisis happen, average price will be $1.50/share over 3 entries. Investor may also consider these prices after it drops to bottom and recover again (uptrend), no need to suffer with falling prices in bear market. The strategy is personality dependent, counter-trend (contrarian investor) and/or follow-trend (trader mindset).

Singtel may remain at low optimism (below $2.50/share) for several years, investors could collect >3% dividend yield (pessimistic assumption) during the winter period of crisis. This way of averaging method (investors may define own $X, $Y, $Z prices above, the sample prices given above are just for example purpose).

The strategies above may be applied for any dividend giant stock. There are about 100 global dividend giant stocks (you may learn the strategies from Dr Tee in 6 days comprehensive course or note down a few sample stocks in free 4hr workshop for the public), some are much stronger and more stable than Singtel. In fact, Singtel is slower in growth, more suitable for dividend investing (as if fixed deposit in stock market) at low optimism but may not suitable for growth to achieve higher capital gains.

There are many ways to make money in stocks, may not be investing, could be trading (higher probability is shorting for current stock market but risk is high due to high market volatility). It is possible for short term trader to short at bearish Telco stocks (may not be Singtel) to profit from the falling prices, especially when breaking below a critical price support, driven by fear of declining business and global events (Coronavirus, etc). So, it is possible for different persons to take different actions (Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait, Shorting) and all could make money in stocks if strategies aligned with personalities and market conditions.

There are at least 26 Temasek / GLC stocks in Singapore including Singtel, controlling shareholder with 15% or more ownership directly or indirectly (investor needs to focus only on giant Temasek stocks):
Singtel (SGX: Z74), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), SIA Engineering (SGX: S59), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Sembcorp Marine (SGX: S51), Olam (SGX: O32), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Ascott Hospitality Trust (SGX: HMN), Ascendas Hospitality Trust (SGX: Q1P), CapitaLand Retail China Trust (SGX: AU8U), Ascendas-iTrust (SGX: CY6U), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Keppel Infrastructure Trust (SGX: A7RU), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree NAC Trust (SGX: RW0U).

Temasek stocks portfolio also affect about 15% of STI index stocks, which has strong impact on Singapore stock market. Here are 30 STI component stocks:
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), HongkongLand (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

Temasek has 40 stocks in the global portfolio, about half are giant stocks (based on Dr Tee criteria). Singtel is Temasek’s largest investment but not Temasek’s best giant stock. An investor may invest in the Top 3 Temasek giant stocks, buying lower than Temasek (hopefully with help of global stock crisis), selling higher than Temasek (if timing is right). Even the stock with business may be in trouble (eg. Olam previously, SIA currently), Temasek is a strong sponsor, likely will help if having significant investment.

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Change Horse Strategy: SIA to SATS (塞翁失马)

SIA C6L SATS S58 SGX

Nightmare of a long term investor is to hold on to a weak fundamental stock with declining share prices over the decade, wasting both time and capital. It is painful to cut loss halfway, therefore many retail traders (especially those who follow tips to invest) may initially plan for short term trading but when encountering global stock crisis falling from high stock optimism, making losses, forced to be a long term investor since then.

Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), SIA, is not a giant stock nor junk stock, under-performing in business (see details of SIA stock in another earlier post), both long term investors (hold for 10 years) or short term traders (hold for 1 month) may make significant losses. So, some investors may be mentally conditioned (despite having option) to subscribe to new rights and bonds issues to avoid future share dilution, investing more new capitals in unknown future of SIA in competitive airlines industry.


Many people may think big names (especially blue chip stocks with decades of history) equals to strong companies. SIA is a big reputable company, therefore some may think it is also a good stock investment, especially backed by Temasek, 55% major shareholder.

There are at least 26 Temasek / GLC stocks in Singapore including Singapore Airlines and SATS, controlling shareholder with 15% or more ownership directly or indirectly (investor needs to focus only on giant Temasek stocks):
Singtel (SGX: Z74), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), SIA Engineering (SGX: S59), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Sembcorp Marine (SGX: S51), Olam (SGX: O32), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Ascott Hospitality Trust (SGX: HMN), Ascendas Hospitality Trust (SGX: Q1P), CapitaLand Retail China Trust (SGX: AU8U), Ascendas-iTrust (SGX: CY6U), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Keppel Infrastructure Trust (SGX: A7RU), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree NAC Trust (SGX: RW0U).

Temasek stocks portfolio also affect about 15% of STI index stocks, which has strong impact on Singapore stock market. Here are 30 STI component stocks:
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), HongkongLand (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

We may study Temasek portfolio (about 40 global stocks, about half are giant stocks, half are non-giant stocks, based on Ein55 giant criteria), focusing on top 10 Temasek giant stocks, buying them at low optimism prices (could be lower than Temasek’s entry price for some stocks now), selling them at high optimism prices in future, protected by Temasek (eg. even for non-giant stocks: Olam, SIA, etc).

Temasek has a giant stock, SATS (SGX: S58), spinoff from SIA many years ago. Although both SATS and SIA are low optimism stocks (both related to airlines industry, suffering in Coronavirus crisis), SATS is a much better opportunity than SIA to buy at low optimism.

SATS controls about 80% of Changi Airport’s ground handling and catering business. SATS has 2 main businesses (about half each), gateway services and food catering services (including to non-airlines sectors). Similar to SIA, SATS is also affected by airlines sector crisis due to Coronavirus spreading, over 90% flights are down, business will be affected in next 12 months. However, in a longer term, SATS has 2 times stronger business fundamental than SIA. The performances of 3 key financial statements over the past decade are exactly opposite for SATS and SIA:

Income Statement:

SATS = increasing earnings

SIA = declining earnings

Balance Sheet:

SATS = increasing equity, declining debt / equity

SIA = declining equity, increasing debt / equity

Cashflow Statement:

SATS = increasing free cashflow

SIA = declining free cashflow

At current share prices, SIA is about 4.9% dividend yield (potential value trap, crisis is crisis), SATS is 5.6% dividend yield (crisis is opportunity).

For SIA investor who holds to SIA stocks with losses but could not sell due to loss aversion, may sell SIA and buy SATS on the same day with same capital remaining (fine even if 50% loss), transferring the fund (soul) from a old horse (SIA) to a young horse (SATS) which has a brighter future and strong energy than SIA to climb higher for capital gains in long term.

This is Dr Tee (Ein55) powerful “Change Horse” Strategy, suitable for those “stubborn” long term investors holding losing stocks for many years. This is a strong Personal Analysis (PA) method as an investor could tell husband or wife that they never actually sell the stock (eg. SIA), just change the stock name to SATS, offspring of SIA. This is important for those who assume sell a losing weaker stock implies immediate loss, they could continue to hold the stock but through transfer of capital to another giant stock, future winning probability would be higher than continue with than the weak stock (may be worse if double the investment with average cost strategy with new rights).

SIA vs SATS may not be the best example to illustrate “Change Horse” strategy because SIA is not a junk stock and SATS is a giant stock but suffering Level 2 (sector) crisis of airlines industry. This strategy will be even more powerful if readers could apply changing a junk stock with a strong giant stock in a promising sector (low optimism in stock prices but not having crisis in business or sector).

A mistake (eg. making losses in stock investing) is not a mistake if one could learn from the mistake, not too late, even knowing after this article. It is a blessing in disguise(塞翁失马、焉知非福)if an investor could learn to overcome own biggest enemy (oneself) to change a weak stock with a giant stock immediately. SATS may not be the best example to “change horse” as there are over 1500+ global giant stocks based on Ein55 giant stock criteria, one may select 10 giant stocks aligned with own unique personality to form a dream team stock portfolio.

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Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 members.

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)