Extreme isolation measures over the past 6 weeks in China Hubei has proven that spreading of Coronavirus could be terminated or reduced (if 0 data reported so far a few cities is still considered unbelievable by some people) after a period of time when breaking the people into “units” of family, the risk, if any, will be within this family. This concept is similar to “curfew” to limit the actions of people (eg. staying home at night) to minimize the possible instability.
This strict method (including locked down of city and staying at home with permit required to go out) could work in China or probably a few other countries with strong power of government authority and more obedient or understanding (politically correct term) people. In Europe (especially) and US with more “democracy”, these extreme measures may not work as people may not follow. Just read that some Italian people use the opportunity of no school (should stay at home) to gather in crowded cafe.
Democracy usually comes with a price. When rules (eg. Coronavirus prevention) are not followed by some people, the entire system could fail, all people would suffer together.
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Similarly for stock investment and trading, risk management is critical. Similar “isolation” measure could be done for stocks through position sizing (trading) or diversification (for investing) to limit the maximum loss when unexpected risk is encountered. This will help to prevent the financial “virus” (eg. market fear) to spread easily and “infect” all the stocks.
If a trader or investor could follow the rules strictly, eg. SET = Stop Loss, Entry & Target Prices, the potential loss could be limited within individual risk tolerance level, preventing from evolving into bigger loss of entire capital when holding to loss position (loss aversion personality).
Stock market and Coronavirus have many similarities, both are unpredictable but when certain rules are applied, higher probability outcome will likely to happen, even no one would know the future. For example, recommended practices such as washing hands more often, avoiding crowded places, etc, could help to reduce the chances of infection.
This is similar to filter out stocks with potential red flags (eg. high debt, unclear business outlook, etc), financial risk of stock could be reduced significantly. At the same time, if one could look for giant stocks with strong business fundamental and uptrend share prices with technical analysis, the probability of success in stocks would be even higher.
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