Deep Thoughts for Life Movie 2020 (生日沉思)

Dr Tee Birthday 2020

Thanks to friends, Ein55 students and forum readers for the best wishes of my birthday today. Year 2020 is a special period with pandemic, birth and death are alternating major events in life, worth deeper thoughts for everyone.

Usually I don’t celebrate own Birthday but today I have decided to buy a mini cake (reduced calories), spending the time with family at home. Life is a journey which no one knows when it may come to an end eventually. Therefore, it is important to experience the processes, either happiness or sadness, living without regrets.

Looking back, similar to many others, I have been striving in early part of life to pursue higher education, all the way to PhD (through part-time studies while working full time with 2 children born in the same period). Then, career ladder becomes the next target in life, starting from technical path as a junior engineer to senior engineer, principal engineer, manager, director, VP and even CEO of own company today (engineering consulting & investment education).

However, when I have achieved most goals in life, suddenly I felt emptiness as what were important (money, education / job titles, etc) in the past may not be as important today. So, about 1 decade ago, I have decided to make a change in life.

I started to pursue interests (teaching, investment & science), combining these 3 main interest in a new goal in life through scientific ways of investment education. I “work” (or should I say “enjoy) days and nights, almost non-stop for many years with over 100 sessions yearly (6-day Ein55 courses, monthly coaching, free public workshops, charity courses, graduate gathering, invited talks, investment articles, etc).

Despite I enjoy the current interest (or job or work, depending on how you define it), I know it cannot last forever. About 2 years ago, I experience a health alert with giddiness without knowing the cause. After the thorough tests (including sophisticated MRI), doctor conclusion was I am ok and the “medication” is to have a vacation as he knew that I did not have a long break for nearly 1 year.

Since then, I have started to slow down the pace in my interest / job / work, take it easy (reducing number of classes), let nature take its course. I like the “semi-retirement” type of life style, i.e. not working for money (not main goal of life anymore) but still live actively to experience the second stage of my life.

During the past 5 months of Covid-19 pandemic, there was a big impact to this new normal life. In the past, my main worry was how I could stop teaching one day as there have been so many activities, even I cut down on training courses since 2 years ago, there were still nearly 100 events to conduct yearly.

Many people hate Covid-19 crisis but it helps me to learn further about life, understanding that no one or nothing is indispensable. I had to stay at home for the past 5 months, stopping near 50 events planned earlier as life still goes on. There is no financial burden on me, I could retire directly anytime but when staying at home as “caveman” without meaningful activities (watching TV, listening to music, reading books, etc), I get bored easily. For every new event planned, the results were cancellation (by law, no gathering is allowed), getting worse from Feb to May 2020.

The only thing has no change in life is change itself. So, I start to adjust myself again, learning the online technology which was far away from me, starting to develop series of online courses (mostly are free video investment education, 1-7hr) and writing over 200 investment articles over the past 5 months, you can find all in my blog: www.ein55.com/blog. I hope to share my investment knowledge with readers during the global stock crisis in pandemic, even gathering is not possible.

“Crisis is always an opportunity”, true for stock investment, also true for life. If any friend or reader may be in difficult time now (eg. losing job or having financial constraint), remember that the bad time will be over one day, we just need to go through the winter time before the arrival of spring with new hope. Every correction in life would form a strong support (similar to stock investment) for us to spring up higher. This is proven in my life over the past decades, many “crisis” experienced, adjustment done, life still goes on.

In the past few months of “lock down” (different terms used in each country) period, I also experience the unexpected farewell of a few friends and relatives who leave the world forever, not even able to pay last respect to them. By right, death is part of life, a natural process. However, 2 of the friends are similar age group as me, motivating me to treasure each day as bonus in life, take it easy further, leading a more peaceful life from now on.

人生无常,酸甜苦辣的经验,勾画出一场精彩人生电影,本身是导演与主角。望大家过得开心自在、无憾无悔。

Some may be still working hard to support the family, not able to take a rest even for one day, worrying for the future. For most people, even financial freedom is still a bit far away but you may have other wealth in life, eg. healthy body and a happy family. Treasure what you have while adjusting the pace for other challenges in life. If you have done your best, regardless of the outcome, this is a good show in life without regret.

Finally, wish all the best to all friends, students and readers. Thank you for the friendship and support for so many years, making the “movie” of my life so interesting. There is always light at the end of tunnel. The next episode of life will be more exciting, we won’t be disappointed with a neutral mindset, for both life and investment, just do the right things with our beliefs, following the path aligning with our unique personalities.

Tong Yan (Dr Tee)

3M of Stock Investment Plan (Hongkong Land)

3M of Stock Investment Plan Hongkong Land

Some investors may think Hongkong Land (SGX: H78) or any giant stock at 0% optimism is a no-brainer stock investment, simply buy now (Price-to-Book, PB ratio of 0.26 with 74% discount in price for high quality property asset) and hold long term for crisis to be over with price recovery, sure will make money with capital gains.

Above is half understanding based on pure “Method”. There are 3M to consider:

3M Investment = Method x Mind X Money Management.

Whenever any 1 of the 3M is weak or zero, entire investment plan would fail due to multiplication effect.

Let me extend the earlier sentence from 1M to 3M:

Hongkong Land is a good buy now at current price, if one is prepared to hold long term with contrarian strategy (including diversification over a portfolio of 10 global giant stocks) which is comfortable with one’s personality (eg. the person will not check share price daily, will not be sleepless each night when seeing Hongkong Land stock price may fall by another 50% in next 6-12 months). If the person is willing to lock the Hongkong Land stock share in a drawer for at least 5 years (only check the price and business fundamental quarterly), then probably near to the rare quality of 5% group of contrarian investors. The person would be similar to Warren Buffett mindset, able to take the finger pointing by others (eg. “you are wrong, should not buy, now is a bad market, etc”).

Let’s do a simulation of application of only 1M (Method). After buying Hongkong Land (assuming the same low price now with PB ratio = 0.26), assuming Coronavirus could be out of control in US & Europe in next few months, many death reported, global stock markets drop from current mid optimism to low optimism, Hongkong Land may fall down another 25% in price. If global financial crisis is induced due to weaker economy over 6-12 months, then Hongkong Land could fall down another 25%, perhaps the PB could be 0.26/2 = 0.13 then (more discount given).

If the person is very comfortable with falling in share prices (treat is as different degree of discount, no need to buy at the most discount with the lowest price) as main concern is to ensure asset value with business won’t be affected in long term. If there is a global financial crisis, it is possible for Hong Kong property valuation to drop 20%, especially Hong Kong property market is at relatively higher price or optimism level over the past 20+ years but it usually won’t last long in this way), then it is a good buy for this person, especially if the position of Hongkong Land stock is no more than 10% of entire portfolio.

Some investors may think if one follows exactly as the Method required (either long term investing or short term trading), then there is no harm to follow. However, once the person make an surprised loss (Mind Control is affected), especially over trade or invest in only 1 stock (poor Money Management).

In short, when finding a Method for stock investment, learn and choose a strategy aligned with own personality (many factors to consider), not just because it is a “sure win” Method. Due to mismatch of personality, this is why traders mindset may fail in investing, while investor mindset may fail in trading. There is also 5% of rare group which could invest and trade, having “dual” personalities, able to make money in both short term trading and long term investing. For majority of the people, there is no need to be greedy to earn all the money in the market, just focus on 1 way comfortable with oneself, be the master with years of practice with stock market experience as the teacher.

There are 30 STI index component stocks including Hongkong Land (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

There is no get-rich-quick or sure-win investment or trading method. Each “Method” requires own experience with own “Money” through own “Mind” to convert into a skill which is repeated. Some may take more time, some may be faster to achieve this goal. The current stock market crisis could be a pain to many people but will be helpful in reshaping one’s strategy (经一事、长一智).

Apply probability investing in planning of stock investment or trading. High probability does not mean 100%, even cash deposit in bank is not 100% safe. A weak bank could go bankrupt, $1 Million deposit could only get $75k compensation. Risk tolerance level is also one of the “PA” (Personal Analysis).

There are 140 property & construction stocks in Singapore including Hongkong Land (47 of them are undervalue with PB<1):
3Cnergy (SGX: 502), A-Smart (SGX: BQC), AEI^ (SGX: AWG), AIMS Property (SGX: BVP), APAC Realty (SGX: CLN), Abterra (SGX: L5I), Acromec (SGX: 43F), Amara (SGX: A34), Amcorp Global (SGX: S9B), AnnAik (SGX: A52), Astaka (SGX: 42S), BBR (SGX: KJ5), BRC Asia (SGX: BEC), BlackGoldNatural (SGX: 41H), Boldtek (SGX: 5VI), Bonvests (SGX: B28), Boustead (SGX: F9D), Boustead Projects (SGX: AVM), Bukit Sembawang (SGX: B61), Bund Center (SGX: BTE), CSC (SGX: C06), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Casa (SGX: C04), Chemical Industries (SGX: C05), China Great Land (SGX: D50), China International (SGX: BEH), China Real Estate (SGX: 5RA), China Yuanbang (SGX: BCD), Chip Eng Seng (SGX: C29), City Development (SGX: C09), DISA (SGX: 532), Debao Property (SGX: BTF), ETC Singapore (SGX: 1C0), Edition (SGX: 5HG), EnGro Corporation (SGX: S44), Fraser and Neave F&N (SGX: F99), Far East Orchard (SGX: O10), Figtree (SGX: 5F4), First Sponsor (SGX: ADN), Fragrance (SGX: F31), Frasers Property (SGX: TQ5), GYP Properties (SGX: AWS), Gallant Venture (SGX: 5IG), Golden Energy (SGX: AUE), Goodland (SGX: 5PC), GuocoLand (SGX: F17), HL Global Enterprises (SGX: AVX), Hatten Land (SGX: PH0), Heeton (SGX: 5DP), Hiap Hoe (SGX: 5JK), Hiap Seng (SGX: 510), Ho Bee Land (SGX: H13), Hock Lian Seng (SGX: J2T), Hong Fok (SGX: H30), Hong Lai Huat (SGX: CTO), Hong Leong Asia (SGX: H22), Hongkong Land USD (SGX: H78), Hor Kew (SGX: BBP), Huationg Global (SGX: 41B), Hwa Hong (SGX: H19), IPC Corp (SGX: AZA), ISOTeam (SGX: 5WF), Imperium Crown (SGX: 5HT), Jasper Investments (SGX: FQ7), KOP (SGX: 5I1), KSH (SGX: ER0), Keong Hong (SGX: 5TT), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), King Wan (SGX: 554), Koh Brothers (SGX: K75), Koon (SGX: 5DL), Kori (SGX: 5VC), LHN (SGX: 41O), Ley Choon (SGX: Q0X), Lian Beng (SGX: L03), Low Keng Huat (SGX: F1E), Lum Chang (SGX: L19), MMP Resources (SGX: F3V), MYP (SGX: F86), Metro (SGX: M01), OIO (SGX: KUX), OKH Global (SGX: S3N), OKP (SGX: 5CF), OneApex (SGX: 5SY), Oxley (SGX: 5UX), PSL (SGX: BLL), Pacific Century (SGX: P15), Pacific Star Development (SGX: 1C5), Pan Hong (SGX: P36), Pavillon (SGX: 596), Perennial Holdings (SGX: 40S), Pollux Properties (SGX: 5AE), PropNex (SGX: OYY), Raffles Infrastructure (SGX: LUY), Regal International (SGX: UV1), Renaissance United (SGX: I11), Rich Capital (SGX: 5G4), Roxy-Pacific (SGX: E8Z), Ryobi Kiso (SGX: BDN), SHS (SGX: 566), SLB Development (SGX: 1J0), SP Corporation (SGX: AWE), Sasseur Reit (SGX: CRPU), Second Chance (SGX: 528), Sin Heng Mach (SGX: BKA), Sinarmas Land (SGX: A26), SingHaiyi (SGX: 5H0), SingHoldings (SGX: 5IC), Singapore-eDev (SGX: 40V), Sinjia Land (SGX: 5HH), Soilbuild Construction Group (SGX: S7P), Starland (SGX: 5UA), Straits Trading (SGX: S20), Swee Hong (SGX: QF6), Sysma (SGX: 5UO), TA (SGX: PA3), TTJ (SGX: K1Q), Tai Sin Electric (SGX: 500), Thakral (SGX: AWI), Thomson Medical Group (SGX: A50), Tiong Seng (SGX: BFI), Top Global (SGX: BHO), Tosei (SGX: S2D), Transcorp (SGX: T19), Tritech (SGX: 5G9), UIC (SGX: U06), UOA (SGX: EH5), UOL (SGX: U14), USP Group (SGX: BRS), Vibrant Group (SGX: BIP), Wee Hur (SGX: E3B), Wing Tai (SGX: W05), Yanlord Land (SGX: Z25), Yeo Hiap Seng (SGX: Y03), Ying Li International (SGX: 5DM), Yoma Strategic (SGX: Z59), Yongmao (SGX: BKX), Yongnam (SGX: AXB), Yorkshine (SGX: MR8).

For students before joining 6-day Ein55 course (www.ein55.com/course), they would do this homework (a series of psychological tests) to know their unique personality better, before aligning with the strategies later.

Stock investment is not as easy as it sounds but when one aligns with own personality, it would become a positive habit, as easy as breathing or drinking water.

Learn from Dr Tee 4hr free investment course on 3M way of stock investment or trading with a dream team of global giant stocks. Register Here: www.ein55.com

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

Dr Tee: Successful Stock Trading & Investing with FTP Analysis in Optimism Strategies

Ein55 Newsletter No 037 - image - Taiji

First things first, what kind of investor would you describe yourself as? Conventionally, we classify investors into two groups—long-term and short-term.

Long-term investors also tend to identify as value investors, who typically base their decisions on Fundamental Analysis (FA). In other words, they are not so into day-to-day trading, or watching stock charts closely as stock prices go up and down. Instead, they prefer to read company reports and seek stocks which they believe are trading for less than their intrinsic values.

Short-term investors…well, it is still debatable whether short-term trading can be called investing, but we know that it’s a much faster game with less waiting time, but more technicalities or Technical Analysis (TA) involved.

So, quick, choose one between the two, which type are you? It’s hard to stick completely to one choice, isn’t it?

Each side has its limitations!

I too would find it hard to just pick one and leave the other one out entirely, because I don’t believe that the two investing styles should be mutually exclusive.

In fact, each style comes with its own set of blind spots and shortcomings.

For instance, one could still lose money by buying a fundamentally-strong stock at a sky-high price.

In the case of short-term trading, it might easily turn into over trading, i.e. excessive buying and selling to increase the probability of successful trades. Such gambling behaviour, coupled with a lack of discipline, could cost investors heavy losses.

Therefore, I think it is advisable and even important to make use of both FA and TA, to enjoy the “best of both worlds”, and in other words, buying giant stocks at cheap prices and at the right time.

On top of that, the investor would also need to develop a kind of inner discipline. Thus, I would like to add another school of thought—personal analysis (PA) as well.

I have integrated 3 schools of thought: FA+TA+PA (FTP analysis) through the unique Optimism Strategies.

 

Ein55 Newsletter No 037 - image - FTP

More about FTP Analysis

People who are new to investment may ask the question, “So what is FA, TA, or PA? What can I expect to learn under each category?”

This is how I look at it.

When it comes to Fundamental Analysis (FA), it is more than just assessing a company’s business performance or intrinsic value (though that will be covered as well). We should also have an understanding of the macro economy (e.g. how countries/ economies are doing on the whole) as well as microeconomics concepts (e.g. demand and supply). I believe that the stock market and the economy are related like how the teeth are related to the lips—without the lips, the teeth will feel chilly.

As for Technical Analysis (TA), ideally we want to buy low and sell high, but it is not that straightforward. In order to enter and exit markets at the right timings, we need to look into trade volumes, values, patterns, trends, etc. I will also be sharing key points that include: relative and absolute technical analysis, as well as bull and bear market interpretation.

Personal Analysis (PA) is essentially a study of 4P: Investor Psychology, Political Economy, Winning Probability and Personal Indicators. It might be the most overlooked part, though I feel that it can even be more important than FA and TA sometimes. Market forces may be uncontrollable and unpredictable, but we can overcome our own emotions and also form personalized investing strategies.

How do we connect these three schools of thought together then? Having been an investor for 20 years myself, I think it can be summed up in one sentence: Identify strong FA stocks, and buy/sell at a time aligned with TA indicators, as confirmed by PA.

The unique Optimism Strategy developed by Dr Tee provides a special advantage to know which investment (stock, forex, property, commodity, bond, etc) to buy safely, when to buy, when to sell, including option of long term holding.  So far over 10,000 audience have benefited from Dr Tee high quality free courses to the public.  Take action now to invest in your financial knowledge, starting your journey towards financial freedom.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 members.

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

Café de Coral – Hong Kong Fast Food Giant Stock (Investment Trip with Personal Analysis)

Ein55 Newsletter No 031 - image - Cafe de Coral

In the vacation trip to Hong Kong with family, I also take the opportunity to study a few good Hong Kong stocks through actual involvement as a customer of their business.  This strategy is called Personal Analysis (PA), also applied by Peter Lynch, the best Fund Manager, who identified the best businesses through daily life observations.

Since we were hungry, we have decided to go around the Nathan Road near Mong Kok area. We ran across Café de Coral (大家乐), a local Hong Kong fast food restaurant. We could not even find a seat at 6pm, business was so good. Then we walked further, there is another branch, manage to find a seat after waiting.

We ordered baked rice, the portion is so big and the taste is good, although it was prepared in about 5 min. The business continue to be good, full house until 7:30pm when we left.  We walked further, seeing a few more Café de Coral. It seems to be more popular than McDonald in Hong Kong, so many branches and business are good.

Daily life observation is a powerful investing technique (Personal Analysis, PA) when combined with Fundamental Analysis (FA) to confirm Café de Coral indeed has strong earning and cash flow records. An investor could then apply Optimism Strategy to buy a share of this business through stock market, ideally at Level 3 or Level 4 crisis for investing, or Level 2 crisis for trading, adding Technical Analysis (TA) and macroeconomy analysis of Kong Kong if needed.

Ein55 Newsletter No 031 - image - Cafe de Coral Optimism

Café de Coral (HKEX: 0341) has increased in share price by more than 11 times in the last 16 years.  Long-term Optimism of this giant fast food stock is 9% at current share price, low downside (9%) and high upside (91%).  This is a rare opportunity for investor, share price correction is partly due to economy slowdown in Hong Kong and major correction in Hang Seng Index (HSI). Optimism is a probability calculator, we could estimate the reward to risk ratio, we could safely consider a good stock if we could wait for the giant to fall down.  However, the short term trend is negative due to bearish global stock market sentiments, therefore only investors with long term holding power could enter with counter trend (price could become lower in short term). If not, trading strategy could be considered.