Café de Coral – Hong Kong Fast Food Giant Stock (Investment Trip with Personal Analysis)

Posted on June 24, 2016 Written by

Ein55 Newsletter No 031 - image - Cafe de Coral

In the vacation trip to Hong Kong with family, I also take the opportunity to study a few good Hong Kong stocks through actual involvement as a customer of their business.  This strategy is called Personal Analysis (PA), also applied by Peter Lynch, the best Fund Manager, who identified the best businesses through daily life observations.

Since we were hungry, we have decided to go around the Nathan Road near Mong Kok area. We ran across Café de Coral (大家乐), a local Hong Kong fast food restaurant. We could not even find a seat at 6pm, business was so good. Then we walked further, there is another branch, manage to find a seat after waiting.

We ordered baked rice, the portion is so big and the taste is good, although it was prepared in about 5 min. The business continue to be good, full house until 7:30pm when we left.  We walked further, seeing a few more Café de Coral. It seems to be more popular than McDonald in Hong Kong, so many branches and business are good.

Daily life observation is a powerful investing technique (Personal Analysis, PA) when combined with Fundamental Analysis (FA) to confirm Café de Coral indeed has strong earning and cash flow records. An investor could then apply Optimism Strategy to buy a share of this business through stock market, ideally at Level 3 or Level 4 crisis for investing, or Level 2 crisis for trading, adding Technical Analysis (TA) and macroeconomy analysis of Kong Kong if needed.

Ein55 Newsletter No 031 - image - Cafe de Coral Optimism

Café de Coral (HKEX: 0341) has increased in share price by more than 11 times in the last 16 years.  Long-term Optimism of this giant fast food stock is 9% at current share price, low downside (9%) and high upside (91%).  This is a rare opportunity for investor, share price correction is partly due to economy slowdown in Hong Kong and major correction in Hang Seng Index (HSI). Optimism is a probability calculator, we could estimate the reward to risk ratio, we could safely consider a good stock if we could wait for the giant to fall down.  However, the short term trend is negative due to bearish global stock market sentiments, therefore only investors with long term holding power could enter with counter trend (price could become lower in short term). If not, trading strategy could be considered.

 

 

Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Stock Market, Stocks A-Z, Value Investing Tagged: , , ,

How to Gamble Safely with Casino Stocks?

Posted on June 2, 2016 Written by

Ein55 Newsletter No 030 - image - Casino Banner

As we know, casino has unfair advantage of over 51% chances for all the games, therefore even a gambler has a 49% winning rate, over a long time with many times of gambling, the survival rate could be very low.  However, in the world of stock market, we could reverse the situation, playing the role as casino with unfair advantage on us, if we know how to position the right strategy, aligning with our personalities.

Genting Singapore (SGX: G13) has suffered huge correction in share price to about 1/3 of the peak price.  In the past few years, earning of Genting Singapore and global casino stocks have declined due to slowdown in global economy.  Weaker Malaysian Ringgit and anti-corruption in China have further reduced the gamblers from these 2 main markets.  The net asset value (NAV) of Genting Singapore is still growing gradually, helping to stabilize the business.

Long-term Optimism of Genting Singapore is 9% at current share price, low downside and high upside.  This is a rare opportunity for investor (second best opportunity after the last global financial crisis in 2008-2009).  Optimism is a probability calculator, we could estimate the reward to risk ratio, we could safely consider a good stock if we could wait for the giant to fall down.  However, the medium term trend is negative due to weak fundamental of business, therefore only investors with long term holding power could enter with counter trend (price could become lower in short to medium term). If not, trading strategy could be considered, waiting for higher share price with breakout of next resistance, buying after short-term uptrend is established.

At the same time, trader could also profit from shorting the casino stocks at short to medium-term high optimism.  There is no single answer to trading or investing decision which has to be aligned with one’s personality (short term trader, medium term trader or long term investor).

Ein55 Newsletter No 030 - image - Genting SG

Currently global casino stocks are under Level 2 crisis, suitable for medium term trading but technical analysis should be applied before entry.  For long term investing, this stock may be considered during Level 3 (regional crisis) or Level 4 crisis (global financial crisis) one day when optimism of world stock indices are low. Global casino business is at winter time now but this is a cyclic business, a gambler may not stop gambling forever.  When global economy has improved, the gamblers will come back again to support the casino business.  For trader and investor, the only question is what price to buy for casino stocks?

 

Filed Under: Stock Market, Stocks A-Z, Trading, Value Investing Tagged: , ,

How to Pay $50 to Exchange for $100 in Hongkong Land?

Posted on May 27, 2016 Written by

We could apply discounted asset strategy to buy good business at undervalue price.  One simple method is to buy strong property stocks with low Price-to-Book ratio (share price divided by net asset value).  Hongkong Land (H78.SI) is a property stock listed in Singapore with commercial properties in Hong Kong, Singapore and China.  Currently Price-to-Book ratio is exactly 0.5, at its historical low (see chart below), owing to falling share price and consistent growing net asset value.  If an investor owns Hongkong Land at current share price (about US$6), it is as good as owning a portion of Hongkong Land properties at 50% discount. This is a combination of value investing (buying at discount) and growth investing (company with growing business, share price went up 8 times over the past 15 years).

However, a trader or investor needs to apply optimism strategies to know the investment clock, when to buy and sell Hongkong Land.  Due to cooling measures of property in Hong Kong and Singapore with slowdown in economy, the market sentiment has corrected Hongkong Land to 26% Optimism.  It means the stock has 26% downside and 74% upside from long term perspective, Reward to Risk Ratio (RRR) nearly 3 to 1.  Optimism is a probability calculator, we could know the chances for trading or investing in short term, mid term and long term.

Ein55 Newsletter No 029 - image - Hongkong Land

Currently Hongkong Land is under both Level 2 crisis (bearish Singapore property market) and Level 3 crisis (Hong Kong Hang Seng Index at low optimism), suitable for medium term trading but technical analysis should be applied before entry.  For long term investing, this stock may be considered during Level 4 crisis (global financial crisis) one day when optimism of world stock indices are low.

Filed Under: Market Optimism, Stock Market, Stocks A-Z, Uncategorized Tagged: , ,

Temasek Acquisition of Eu Yan Sang at Low Optimism

Posted on May 18, 2016 Written by

Ein55 Newsletter No 028 - image - Eu Yan Sang

We have learned from Dr Tee to buy giant stocks at low optimism for investing. However, nowadays fund managers have become competitors for retail investors for such investing opportunities.  Recently a consortium including Temasek, has offered to acquire Eu Yan Sang.  Let’s analyse further based on optimism strategies.

The earning ability of Eu Yan Sang has declined over the past few years due to slowdown in local and regional economy but still it is profitable. Net Asset Value (NAV) of Eu Yan Sang has increased consistently over the past 10 years since IPO (see chart below).  Temasek and partners made the offer when Eu Yan Sang share price is still at low optimism (<25%). Even at current share price of $0.63 (slightly higher than offer price of $0.60), the Optimism is only 26%.

Ein55 Newsletter No 028 - image - Temasek Acquisition

This implies that Temasek and partners have acquired a valuable business at a relatively low price with consideration of its value.  Although the current stock price is 3 times compared to IPO price 16 years ago, it is still relatively cheap for a growing business. We could not compare with only the historical low price based on technical analysis, the fundamental of the business has to be considered as well.

 

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Stocks A-Z Tagged: , , , ,

Stock & ETF Investing Opportunity in BRICS – Emerging Countries

Posted on May 1, 2016 Written by

Ein55 Newsletter No 026 - image - BRICS

Due to global economy slowdown in the last few years, stock markets in the emerging countries have suffered significant corrections, resulting in Level-3 (country/region) crisis.  The leaders of emerging countries are BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China & South Africa), stock prices are now at very attractive prices.  When the global economy starts to recover and accelerate, these emerging stock markets will benefit as well.  One could use ETF to trade or invest global stock indices.

Due to economy and political instability, Brazil stock market now is at 18% Optimism, after 57% correction in stock prices (see chart below).

Ein55 Newsletter No 026 - image - Brazil

Russia has suffered from falling in global oil price, economy is severely affected. Russia stock market now is at 16% Optimism, after 65% correction in stock prices (see chart below).

Ein55 Newsletter No 026 - image - Russia

India is relatively stronger compared to other BRICS, stock market now is at 34% Optimism with only 13% correction in stock prices (see chart below).

Ein55 Newsletter No 026 - image - India

China is world No 2 economy, although Optimism is similar to India at 34%, stock prices have heavily corrected by 43% after the last round of speculative bull run, falling down from peak of 5200 points (see chart below).

Ein55 Newsletter No 026 - image - China

South Africa is relatively smaller in economy size, Optimism now is at ideal 25% Optimism with only 20% correction in stock market (see chart below).

Ein55 Newsletter No 026 - image - South Africa

The level-3 crisis and opportunity mentioned above requires longer investing strategy because global economy recovery is a gradual and longer term. Political economy is also crucial for the recovery of stock markets.  BRICS have to compete with US which is now at moderate high Optimism of 68% (see chart below) with more bullish economy, challenging the next historical peak in stock prices.

Ein55 Newsletter No 026 - image - US

If there is still a last global rally in stocks, BRICS may recover strongly with US stock market may rise to new historical high.  Other smaller emerging countries stock markets (eg. Southeast Asia) and many individual stocks may follow BRICS as well. However, after the next bull run, there could be another perfect storm waiting ahead, level 4 global financial crisis may severely injured all the global stock markets, both US and emerging counties. The ability to know when to sell to take profit will be crucial.

 

 

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Optimism, Market Outlook, Stock Market Tagged: , , , ,

Oil & Gas Stocks – Time to Buy or Sell?

Posted on April 28, 2016 Written by

Ein55 Newsletter No 025 - image - oil & gas

Global oil & gas related stocks have experienced significant corrections over the past 1 year, many stocks including blue chips are at attractive low prices.  Although investors know that crisis is an opportunity, the share price could become lower with time, therefore few people dare to grab the opportunity.

Is it time to buy or sell Oil & Gas stocks? The answer is to align the strategy with personality (short term trader vs long term investor):

1) Long Term Investor

For a long term investor with at least 3 years of holding power, oil & gas crisis presents a rare opportunity for entry to buy low.  As shown in the Optimism Chart below for Oil & Gas Stocks Index, long-term optimism is 22%, an attractive low price, having RRR (Reward to Risk Ratio) of 3 times.  However, no one will know the true bottom, therefore the best strategy is to buy low enough (below 25%), not to depend on luck to wait for the lowest point.  The investors enter with long-term low optimism require 3 additional weapons to be successful:

  • Know what to buy for giant oil & gas stocks. Some weak stocks may not survive through this storm, losing business with high debt could break the camel’s back. Giants with strong fundamentals will last and revive as final winners.
  • Holding power of at least 3 years to wait for the recovery of oil & gas
  • Ability to control the fearful emotion during crisis, certain stocks may fall in price further due to market sentiment.

Ein55 Newsletter No 025 - image - Oil & Gas - LT

2) Short Term Trader

For a short term trader, the holding power is shorter (a few weeks to a few months), therefore the strategy is totally different from long term investor.  A trader has to align with the short term market sentiment which is still bearish over the past 6 months.  With the recent recovery of oil & gas prices, the short-term optimism is high at 77% (see chart below).  For a short term trader, the upside is limited, downside is 2 times, having RRR (Reward to Risk Ratio) of 2 times if shorting strategy is applied.  Of course, a short term trader could also wait for stronger breakout above 100% Optimism, if still want to long the market for a short period.

The traders who long/short the oil & gas stocks require the following strength:

  • Know what to buy for trading, either for long or short, choices are different from investing.
  • The ability to cut loss when direction is wrong based on risk tolerance level, knowing when to take profit, not to be too greedy. Winning or losing is a probability game in trading. Retail traders may have hard time to manage own emotions as the trades are their own capital, they could be forced to hold the stocks from short term to long term when direction is wrong, finally ending up sell low when price breaks below their psychological limit one day.

Ein55 Newsletter No 025 - image - Oil & Gas - ST

When Optimism Strategies are combined with Fundamental Analysis (value investing & growth investing), Technical Analysis (support / resistance / trends), and Personal Analysis (mind control of greed and fear), it is very powerful when one is able to take the right action (Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait or Short) at the right time aligning with own personality.

The unique Optimism Strategy developed by Dr Tee provides a special advantage to know which investment (stock, forex, property, commodity, bond, etc) to buy safely, when to buy, when to sell, including option of long term holding.  So far over 10,000 audience have benefited from Dr Tee high quality free courses to the public.  Take action now to invest in your financial knowledge, starting your journey towards financial freedom.

Brexit has created new stock trading and investing opportunities globally.  At the same time, British Pound is severely corrected, one could apply Forex Optimism to maximize the gains in stock market.   The fear factor has supported the bullish gold price and gold related stocks (eg. gold miners), analysis with Commodity Optimism is needed.  Every crisis is an opportunity, provided one knows how to position.

 

 

 

Filed Under: Commodity Market, Market Optimism Tagged: ,

Opportunity to Buy Stocks during Level 1 – 4 Crisis

Posted on April 15, 2016 Written by

Ein55 Newsletter No 024 - image - Crisis is Opportunity

“Be Greedy when Others are Fearful”, Warren Buffett. 

Many people buy stocks when they feel safe and comfortable, after seeing other people making money, only then they chase after the opportunities, sometimes caught again when market sentiments start to change.  A safe way of buying stock is to wait for crisis, when people worries about the stock market, only then they will sell their best value stocks at discounted price to us.  Every crisis is an opportunity!

There are 4 levels of Crisis:

Level 1 (individual stocks)

– company with falling share price or business, eg. Noble, Keppel Corp, Golden Agri, etc.

Level 2 (sector / industry)

– sector correction, eg. Oil & Gas stocks, Casino stocks, Shipping stocks, etc.

Level 3 (country / region)

– stock market correction, eg. Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, China Shanghai Index, etc.

Level 4 (world)

– Major economy slowdown, eg. China

For a falling stock price (Level 1 crisis), it is only worth considering if it is related to sector correction, not mainly because of own business is declining.  A business may go bankrupt but entire sector/industry would nearly always come back after the winter time is over.  A trader would require minimum Level 2 crisis to buy stocks, currently there are many opportunities for Oil & Gas stocks, commodity stocks, retail stocks, casino stocks, shipping stocks, etc.

However, an investor with higher profit target will need to wait for larger scale of crisis, either Level 3 (country / region) or Level 4 (global market).  The golden investing opportunity of life time is to buy stocks which consistently make money in business (even during crisis) but the stock prices drop more than half because people worry the sky will fall down during global financial crisis.

It can be very easy or can be very tough to grab on the trading and opportunities above to buy low during Level 2-4 crisis. If we follow majority of people to trade/invest normally, usually will end up buy high because we feel more comfortable in a bullish market.  If we could follow abnormal strategies like Warren Buffett did in the past, wait patiently for the giant stocks to fall down, buying them at great discount in Global Stock Sales (as if Great Singapore Sales, GSS) when other traders/investors are very worried, the reward could be significant.

 

 

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Personal Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: ,

How to Choose Stocks which Could Grow 30 Times in Price?

Posted on April 8, 2016 Written by

Ein55 Newsletter No 023 - image - Jardine Banner

Jardine Matheson Holdings (JMH) / Jardine Strategic Holdings (JSH) has over 180 years of history, the group includes famous brands such as Dairy Farm, Jardine Cycle and Carriage, Hong Kong Land, Mandarin Oriental, etc.  Although JMH and JSH were removed from 30 STI components in 2015, it is still considered a blue chip, suitable for investing.

The chart below shows the stock price history of JMH over the past 18 years.  For long term investors, there are 2 strategies for capital growth to achieve higher stock price:

1) Market Cycle Investing (Buy Low Sell High)

Long term optimism chart developed by Dr Tee could show the timing to Buy Low Sell High (circled, see chart), upside potentially in a few years usually could be around 50% – 200% (3X).  This is an investing strategy integrating trading principle of buy low sell high, following the market cycles to buy/sell blue chips.

2) Value Investing (Buy Low Hold Forever)

Some investors prefer to buy and hold the stock over the lifetime. If the right stock is chosen, one could benefit from passive income (consistent yearly dividend) and also tremendous capital gains.  From the chart shown, one could earn 30X if able to buy and hold JMH for the last 18 years.

Ein55 Newsletter No 023 - image - Jardine Matheson Holdings

The strong fundamental stocks with consistent earning could help to sustain the growing price over many years.  Whether to Buy Low Sell High or Buy Low Hold Forever, it depends on investor personality.  Not everyone can be a long term value investor because it involves 4 knowhow:

1) Know What to Buy

– not every stock is suitable for long term investing

2) Know When to Buy

– one could lose money if buying blue chips at high price, the ability to buy low will create safety margin to reduce the future risk

3) Know When to Sell or Continue to Hold

– a good stock now may not be a good stock in future, careful monitoring of yearly business performance is a must for long term holding

4) Holding Power

– emotional management of Fear and Greed is needed

How to find more stocks like Jardine which may have tremendous growth potential in stock prices? What are the potential of Jardine component stocks such as Dairy Farm, Jardine Cycle and Carriage, Hong Kong Land, Mandarin Oriental, etc? It will be interesting to understand these investing opportunities, from Level 1 (individual stocks), Level 2 (sector / industry), Level 3 (country / region) to Level 4 (world).

 

 

 

 

 

Filed Under: Stock Market, Stocks A-Z, Value Investing Tagged: ,

Golden Investing Opportunity is for those Properly Prepared!

Posted on February 15, 2016 Written by

Ein55 Newsletter No 019 - image - Opportunity

“For those properly prepared, the bear market is not only a calamity but an opportunity.” Sir John Templeton (Investing Master)

The safest time to enter stock market is usually after the correction, main difference for a trader and an investor is on how much discount is needed.  A wise shopper would wait patiently for the Great Singapore Sales to buy desired products in bulk at significant discount.  Similarly, an expert trader or seasoned investor would wait for the sales of desired stocks, when majority of the people are still fearful, only then the share price could fall to an attractive level.

The up and down in stock prices reflect both the business performance and the emotions of traders.  The best time to buy stocks is when people worry the sky will fall down but the same business still makes money consistently each day.  Such golden opportunities of investing only occur during global financial crisis, when majority of global investors are fearful, only then they would let go their most valuable stocks at tremendous discount.

3 major banks in Singapore have fallen more than 20% in share prices over the past 6 months.  Is it time to buy these giant stocks cheaply?  The current global market corrections could be a good opportunity for traders but it is still insufficient for value investors who aim for more than 50% discount of such blue chips, proven historically in each economy cycles.

How long should the investors wait for the giants to fall down?  We don’t have to time the market because the future is unpredictable, both the financial news and political economy could affect the stock markets daily.  However, there is a predictability within the unpredictability, if we could wait patiently, preparing for each opportunities to enter the market, aligning the strategies with own personalities as a trader or an investor.

Optimism Analysis is a probability calculation, both for trading and investing.  We would position ourselves to have higher chance of winning with limited downside, risk-to-reward ratio should be at least 1 to 2, every $1 of risk in investment should potentially bring $2 of return.  Gambling could give special edge to the casino, while Optimism Analysis could give unfair advantage to the traders / investors if ones could wait patiently to be the minority who could gain from the majority.  Golden opportunity is for those who are properly prepared, equipped with the investing knowledge!

 

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Market Optimism, Stock Market Tagged: , ,

Ein55 Charity Course for Both Graduates and Needy People

Posted on December 2, 2015 Written by

Dr Tee is not profit driven for his investment education programs, aiming to setup a low-cost, high-quality and sustainable platform for the general public to learn the right way of trading and investing, from free public workshops, low-cost 5-day course to long term coaching program for the graduates.  Dr Tee is supported by a team of graduate mentors (Chye Tin, Andrew, William, James, Victor and Kee Min), who are senior traders or experienced investors. These graduate mentors integrate their own trading and investing systems with Optimism Strategies learned from Dr Tee several years ago. After they become successful, they also have decided to contribute back as volunteers, helping Dr Tee to provide close guidance to Ein55 graduates through various graduate mentor courses.

On 29 Nov 2015, Dr Tee and graduate mentor Chye Tin, together organized the first Charity Course on REITS and Business Trusts for the graduates.  It is a huge success, the course was sold out within 12hr, because the graduates understand they are contributing to charity while learning useful investment knowledge.  The net income of the course with top up of personal donation, total amount of S$10,000 is donated by Ein55 Graduates to Tzu Chi (慈济) Foundation, accepted by the Deputy CEO of Tzu Chi Singapore, Mr Khoo on the same day.  The charity course has inspired more graduates, including Mr TG Ng, a successful business man, who matched the same amount of final donation of $10,000 by Ein55 graduates, total of $20,000 now is available to help more needy people through Tzu Chi Foundation (Singapore).

Below is a group photo of Dr Tee (red shirt), together with 6 graduate mentors and Mr TG Ng.

Chye Tin who is Ein55 Graduate Mentor, has committed to develop more charity courses for Ein55 graduates (about 1200 as of now, after graduating from 5-day course by Dr Tee) in future, ranging from investing for income (REITS/Business Trust and High Yield Portfolio) to investing for capital growth (Discounted Asset Strategy and Earning/Cashflow Strategy).  These are valuable strategies from his decades of personal experience, sharing without financial return to Ein55 graduates, net income will be donated to Tzu Chi.  These high quality courses are bonus for Ein55 graduates, integrating well with Optimism Strategies learned from earlier 5-day course by Dr Tee.

Here are valuable feedback from some Ein55 graduates who have benefited from the last Charity Course on REITS/BT taught by Chye Tin:

1) Mach Goh: “Chye Tin is a meticulous mentor and give 100% effort in sharing his knowledge.on REIT & BT. His detailed analysis of the REIT & BT far exceeded my expectation. Thumb up 10/10!!!”

2) JS Tan: “Personally i can feel that Chye Tin is a good mentor with kind heart and deep knowledge. My aim is to be successful of myself, and i will help more peoples by donating my knowledge or my wealth back to the society.”

3) PT Kok: “It’s very well integrated with Ein55 styles – benefited many including myself.  I would recommend the instructor or his team members to conduct more sessions for the benefit of majority who missed it as soon as possible – dun miss the next market cycle to enter.”

4) KS Lai: “This course has helped me to have deeper understanding of factors affecting the performance/total return of Reits when combine with Optimism method.”

5) GL Lee: “Chye Tin is very meticulous and generous in sharing very detailed case studies as well as useful templates with all students attending the course. It covers both theory and practical in a very logical and progressive manner. I am sure it will benefit all students who have the diligence and patience to put them into practice. At the same time, I highly commend Chai Tin and Dr Tee for making this course a charity event.”

6) SB Tay: “The instructor presented very well. The course notes were well prepared. The instructor must have done thorough research on the subject before the presentation and was very confident during the presentation. The Optimism Level was applied throughout the presentation.”

7) Vincent Seow: “Chye Tin is a very knowledgeable and experienced investor; he holds no barred in sharing his investing experience with the class.”

8) Albert Tay: “这個輔導課兼提醒学生通过義務服务或樂捐幫助社会的弱势群体。我深信每位学生或多或少，当他们投资有良好的成绩時更不会忘記需要幫助的弱势群体。今天這課，能够幫助我更明白REIT 及BUSINESE TRUST 的概念，如何分析REIT 及 如何用乐观指数分析投资海外股票市场中的REIT以降低風險。所講的概念与所分析三個公司的案例都能系统化的輔導有心学習的人。”

“Ein 55 股票高利润秘诀将是我在投资道路上的指南針。這個課程教学生具有宏覌与微观的相関分析相关概念来分析投资，加上技术分析上的活用与投资心理調整的配合，特别是乐观指数(Optimism)的概念，是外面学不到的。”

 

Filed Under: Stock Market, Value Investing Tagged: ,
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