Thanks to friends, Ein55 students and forum readers for the best wishes of my birthday today. Year 2020 is a special period with pandemic, birth and death are alternating major events in life, worth deeper thoughts for everyone.
Usually I don’t celebrate own Birthday but today I have decided to buy a mini cake (reduced calories), spending the time with family at home. Life is a journey which no one knows when it may come to an end eventually. Therefore, it is important to experience the processes, either happiness or sadness, living without regrets.
Looking back, similar to many others, I have been striving in early part of life to pursue higher education, all the way to PhD (through part-time studies while working full time with 2 children born in the same period). Then, career ladder becomes the next target in life, starting from technical path as a junior engineer to senior engineer, principal engineer, manager, director, VP and even CEO of own company today (engineering consulting & investment education).
However, when I have achieved most goals in life, suddenly I felt emptiness as what were important (money, education / job titles, etc) in the past may not be as important today. So, about 1 decade ago, I have decided to make a change in life.
I started to pursue interests (teaching, investment & science), combining these 3 main interest in a new goal in life through scientific ways of investment education. I “work” (or should I say “enjoy) days and nights, almost non-stop for many years with over 100 sessions yearly (6-day Ein55 courses, monthly coaching, free public workshops, charity courses, graduate gathering, invited talks, investment articles, etc).
Despite I enjoy the current interest (or job or work, depending on how you define it), I know it cannot last forever. About 2 years ago, I experience a health alert with giddiness without knowing the cause. After the thorough tests (including sophisticated MRI), doctor conclusion was I am ok and the “medication” is to have a vacation as he knew that I did not have a long break for nearly 1 year.
Since then, I have started to slow down the pace in my interest / job / work, take it easy (reducing number of classes), let nature take its course. I like the “semi-retirement” type of life style, i.e. not working for money (not main goal of life anymore) but still live actively to experience the second stage of my life.
During the past 5 months of Covid-19 pandemic, there was a big impact to this new normal life. In the past, my main worry was how I could stop teaching one day as there have been so many activities, even I cut down on training courses since 2 years ago, there were still nearly 100 events to conduct yearly.
Many people hate Covid-19 crisis but it helps me to learn further about life, understanding that no one or nothing is indispensable. I had to stay at home for the past 5 months, stopping near 50 events planned earlier as life still goes on. There is no financial burden on me, I could retire directly anytime but when staying at home as “caveman” without meaningful activities (watching TV, listening to music, reading books, etc), I get bored easily. For every new event planned, the results were cancellation (by law, no gathering is allowed), getting worse from Feb to May 2020.
The only thing has no change in life is change itself. So, I start to adjust myself again, learning the online technology which was far away from me, starting to develop series of online courses (mostly are free video investment education, 1-7hr) and writing over 200 investment articles over the past 5 months, you can find all in my blog: www.ein55.com/blog. I hope to share my investment knowledge with readers during the global stock crisis in pandemic, even gathering is not possible.
“Crisis is always an opportunity”, true for stock investment, also true for life. If any friend or reader may be in difficult time now (eg. losing job or having financial constraint), remember that the bad time will be over one day, we just need to go through the winter time before the arrival of spring with new hope. Every correction in life would form a strong support (similar to stock investment) for us to spring up higher. This is proven in my life over the past decades, many “crisis” experienced, adjustment done, life still goes on.
In the past few months of “lock down” (different terms used in each country) period, I also experience the unexpected farewell of a few friends and relatives who leave the world forever, not even able to pay last respect to them. By right, death is part of life, a natural process. However, 2 of the friends are similar age group as me, motivating me to treasure each day as bonus in life, take it easy further, leading a more peaceful life from now on.
人生无常,酸甜苦辣的经验,勾画出一场精彩人生电影,本身是导演与主角。望大家过得开心自在、无憾无悔。
Some may be still working hard to support the family, not able to take a rest even for one day, worrying for the future. For most people, even financial freedom is still a bit far away but you may have other wealth in life, eg. healthy body and a happy family. Treasure what you have while adjusting the pace for other challenges in life. If you have done your best, regardless of the outcome, this is a good show in life without regret.
Finally, wish all the best to all friends, students and readers. Thank you for the friendship and support for so many years, making the “movie” of my life so interesting. There is always light at the end of tunnel. The next episode of life will be more exciting, we won’t be disappointed with a neutral mindset, for both life and investment, just do the right things with our beliefs, following the path aligning with our unique personalities.
Tong Yan (Dr Tee)
Deep Thoughts for Life Movie 2020 (生日沉思)
Blessing in Disguise: COVID-19 Crisis Saves Lives and Investment.
There are many more diseases which cause more death than COVID-19, including regular pheumonia and seasonal flu (including Type A – H1N1). However, the impact could be more on senior citizens or group with weaker immune system, therefore usually these common diseases (pneumonia or even common flu) are not viewed seriously, not just in Singapore, also in other countries. So, the fear of COVID-19 coronavirus (unknown new health enemy) could be a blessing in disguise for the world, helping to save more lives for dying in other common diseases.
Pneumonia requires 2 vaccines injections (1 each year, over 2 years), recommended for elderly people over 60 years old, risk could be minimized significantly as effect could last for life. Seasonal flu is more tricky, different each year or every 6 months, similar to change in fashion, see which is popular virus, then requiring new injection each time, therefore may not be practical for ordinary people.
COVID-19 crisis could be an opportunity to save more lives in other diseases (than potential death in COVID-19 virus) because due to great awareness among the people (eg. wearing mask or keep a distance from those who are sick, etc), may be only 1% of results is used to prevent COVID-19 but 99% of effort indirectly helps to prevent spreading of other known diseases.
Crisis is Opportunity for Stock Investment
Similarly, for stock investment, there are many “blessing in disguise”, crisis is opportunity. Eg, many strong fundamental business stocks may not be cheap (eg. Apple Inc, NYSE: AAPL) when investors are “normal”, usually need to pay for higher prices to get a share for business ownership. However, during global financial crisis, these popular stocks could give tremendous discount, eg. Apple Inc prices dropped to half (50% discount) during 2008-2009 subprime crisis.
However, “Blessing in Disguise” is only possible for stock investment with several conditions:
1) The stock must have strong business fundamental
2) The stock price falls due to fear of market, not due to business (still strong)
3) Investor needs to have independent thinking (not affected by other people opinion), knowing what to buy, when to buy/sell.
So, stock investment knowledge is critical to convert Crisis into Opportunity. With the Coronavirus may end (or accepted globally as seasonal flu which is less deadly) in near future, it is timely to learn about stock investment.
Register for 4hr Free Course by Dr Tee to establish a dream team of global stock portfolio: www.ein55.com
Dorscon Alerts with 4 Levels of Investment Opportunities
Dorscon disease outbreak alert system (4 colors: Green, Yellow, Orange, Red) was established in Singapore after SARS 2003. Some people may worry the current situation may be changed from Orange to Red Alert for Coronavirus (if so, schools have to be shutdown temporary).
There is grey area (no clear quantitative criteria) in Dorscon for 2 main criteria (# infected vs # death) to be Red Alert:
1) spread widely
– how many # infected daily is considered widely
2) Significant # death
– how to define significant?
Even for SARS in Singapore, it was later benchmark as Orange Alert, having 33 death out of 238 infected cases in Singapore. Since Dorscon absolute criteria may not be known. We may do a relative criteria based on benchmark with known case of SARS in 2003 at Orange Alert.
For Coronavirus, although actual fatality rate could be much lower than 2% (due to many cases in Hubei may not be diagnosed in earlier stage), we may assume 2% as the worst case scenario.
We could do a reversed calculation to estimate when Coronavirus may be as severe as SARS based on Dorscon criteria of Orange Alert before transition to Red Alert. There are 3 possible conditions as criteria:
1) Same # infected as SARS of 238 cases. Currently Coronavirus has 58 # infected in Singapore till 13 Feb 2020. Coronavirus is about 25% level of SARS for Singapore. Since worldwide data shows Coronavirus has more potential than SARS, then this # infected may have potential to grow in Singapore.
2) Same # death as SARS of 33 cases. Currently Coronavirus has 0 death, still a long distance before in par with SARS (which is rated as Orange alert).
3) Since # death in Singapore for Coronavirus is 0, we may also apply same # death as SARS of 33, assuming 2% fatality rate (worst case) for Coronavirus, we could derive a critical # infected = 33/0.02 = 1650 # infected in Singapore before Coronavirus is comparable with SARS. Criteria 2 and 3 are related, see whichever reached first.
Conclusions:
SARS Orange alert criteria is in fact quite high. If we use the same criteria as SARS, then Coronavirus has to have either 238 or 1650 infected cases and/or 33 death in Singapore before declaring the same level of health crisis as SARS (which is still Orange Alert). Based on 3 possible conditions, the easiest criteria (assuming either wide spreading or significant number of death, not both) to meet is probably No 1 based on same # infected of 238. For Conditions No 2 & 3, will be more difficult to achieve, if applying this criteria, likely Coronavirus would remain just Orange Alert.
Assuming SARS is the upper limit of Orange Alert, then Coronavirus currently is probably the lower limit or Orange Alert. The Red Alert has to be reserved for true health crisis, otherwise there is no proper level to reflect the right action for such emergency then.
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Dorscon standard is just a reference, main objective is to show the relative risk in health, individual could then use it to make decision on how much risk to take.
Similarly, we may apply 4-color Dorscon concept in stock investment, dividing into 4 levels of investing opportunities, each level has its own risk vs opportunity based on business fundamental vs optimism level:
4 Levels of Ein55 Investment Opportunities
1) Green
– Strong business fundamental
– Low Optimism level (<25%)
2) Yellow
– Strong business fundamental
– Moderate Optimism level (25-75%)
3) Orange
– Moderate business fundamental
– Moderate Optimism level (25-75%)
4) Red
– Moderate business fundamental
– High Optimism level (>75%)
For either long term investing or short term trading, a stock requires minimum of moderate business fundamental. Buying weak fundamental stocks with bullish price trend is speculative, more suitable for very short term trader (eg. during the Coronavirus crisis time, some weak stocks start to rise).
When Optimism level is higher (from Green to Red Opportunity), positioning style is safer from investing to trading. Current global stock market is around Red Opportunity but traders may still consider short term trading in US with high optimism. For Singapore (moderate optimism level), it will be either Yellow or Orange Opportunities, depending on type of stocks.
Learn from Dr Tee free 4hr investment course on balance between risk and opportunities with comprehensive LOFTP Strategies (Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis). Register Here: www.ein55.com
2 Simple Steps of Investment
Many people thought investment is very complicated, only for smart people. Actually, there are only 2 simple steps of investment to bridge between knowledge and fortune. Let’s learn together here.
1) Set the Right Direction
Knowing the right direction to go is very important for any investment. One could be very hardworking but running in opposite direction, will be further away from the goal.
In investment, we need to know what are the good businesses which are profitable, sustainable for a long term. We could simply buy their stocks to have a share of this wonderful business. If one knows how to buy a portfolio of giant stocks, the undervalued or growing business with help to support the uptrend share price over the time. However, if one partners with a losing business, buying their stock, the direction will be wrong, share prices will be declining as well.
Share prices could be emotional but they follow the mega trend of businesses. If we could understand the fundamental of business, we could control the wild horse of share prices.
2) Take Action
Knowing the direction but if one does not take action to move, the goal cannot be reached. Some may take smaller steps, some may walk faster, so the pace will vary for each person to achieve the goal, just sooner or later.
In investment, we need to learn to take one of the actions: Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait or Shorting, eg. for stocks. Ideally, the choice of actions could be aligned with investment clock and personalities for best results.
However, even the simple action of “Buy” stock now and hold permanently could make money, if one knows how to set the direction correctly, buying a portfolio of giant stocks which could overcome all the cyclic stock market. If one still hesitates without any action, despite hundreds of excellent plans with so much investment knowledge learned, there will be no fortune.
Still considering? Don’t be just a knowledge collector. Practice these 2 simple steps of investment: set the right direction and start your investment journey now!
What is Investment?
Investment is to take calculated risk, using special edges (eg. Optimism + FA + TA + PA) to give unfair advantages in winning rate over time, aligning to own personality with independent thinking.
Investment is NOT to copy and paste the methods with stock tips, news and rumours, following herd mentality with hope strategy.
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No one could know what will happen tomorrow. Guessing or hoping is not a reliable strategy for investment. Instead, we should know ourselves first, our unique personality which comprises of many aspects, eg. control of greed and fear, stress management, risk tolerance level, profit target, financial condition, holding power, resources available, etc.
Even if one only masters one weapon, it could give special edge, although it is limited. Eg:
Investor – using FA (Fundamental Analysis) weapon to find strong business
Trader – using TA (Technical Analysis) weapon to ride the trend of prices.
One should bridge between FA & TA:
FA + TA = FATA (发达)
Ideally, we could add 2 more weapons of Optimism + PA (Personal Analysis) to form a personalized strategy for any investment: stock, property, bond, commodity, forex, etc.