Stock Market Fear with 0% interest rate and $700B QE

Stock Market Fear with 0% interest rate and $700B QE

0% US interest Rate + $700B QE = Stock Crisis Fear

US Fed just cut interest rate to historical low of 0-0.25% + strength of $700B QE (Quantitative Easing) but introducing on bearish stock market. This is wasting bullet. In fact, global stock market falls more due to fear of such action, US stock market is halted due to circuit breaker with 7% fall.

A natural way is to let the market reset itself with a global financial crisis and falling of global stock market to low optimism < 25%. However, this would affect the chances of Trump second term presidential election as S&P 500 has been his report card, hard to show negative results to his supporters who may also be investors.

If US stock market (Level 3) falls to low optimism <25%, world stock market (Level 4) would also follow, officially falling into Global Financial Crisis which may last longer than 6-12 months, depending on the severity. It would be timely to consider cyclic giant stocks from sectors such as bank, property, airline, technology, etc, focusing on strong fundamental stocks only, don’t buy stock purely based on prices (eg. historical low price).

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A stock market could only reborn after falling to worse case of <25% optimism, then measures such as QE1 in 2009 could be effective (limited downside then).

US stock market is still at 50% optimism, Trump tries an uphill task to save the stock market by introducing interest rate cut to 0% and massive QE of $700, it is wasting money and effort. Stock market bubbles may be burst, money would escape from stock market, even from bond market (since bond yield is <1%), holding as cash which is king but low interest rate would push some investors to invest again in future, after global financial crisis with low prices of stocks everywhere. 

It would take time to recover or if Trump is lucky, Coronavirus may end by summer, then it could still be a mini bear, but fear in stock market may spread faster than Coronavirus over the next few critical months, depending on global countries, need to fight 2 crisis (health + stock) together.

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Impact of Central Bank Interest Rate Cut on Global Stocks

Impact of Interest Rate Cut

For most countries, cutting central bank interest rate is an easy way to help weaker economy. However, there is a limit, eg from current 2.5%, still could allow further 10 times 0.25% cut for Malaysia.

For US, the Fed just cut interest rate by 0.5% from 1.5-1.75% to 1.25-1.5%, only left 5 times 0.25%, before falling to negative interests rate as in Japan and Europe.

Interest rate cut in bear market or weaker economy (eg Malaysia) is a danger signal. Buy low may get lower for stock market. In general, Malaysia has 2% higher bank interest rate than Singapore. However, the gap now is narrower to only 1% difference. Bank stocks in Malaysia would suffer due to smaller NIM (net interest margin), therefore trend of share price has been bearish.

Interest rate cut in bull market or strong economy (eg US) could help to prolong the 11 years bull run but more suitable for short term traders as US stock market is unstable at high optimism, any black swan (eg Coronavirus, surprises in 2020 US presidential election, China economy slowdown affecting the whole world, etc). If the short term stock market in US is recovered or even achieve another new historical high in near future, both traders and investors may need to seriously plan for exit strategy with trend-following strategies.

Last 2 years of interest rate cut in US is a preventive measure to sustain the bullish economy against any potential market threat. However, the bullets left are limited for the Fed to cut the interest rate further, implying QE (Quantitative Easing) may be the limited few weapons left for future global financial crisis at the expense of inflation with depreciation in currency, etc.

Negative interest rate is not the end of the world (could be a shock) as Europe and Japan have experienced, could become a norm in future. However, central banks of countries would need to print money with QE or leveraging on other stimulus plans during next global financial crisis.

So, holding cash for long term without investment (stock, property, commodity, etc) would lose to inflation with low interest rate for long term in future. Bond also has gloomy future due to sibling low bank interest rate.

There is no free lunch in the world. Market gets the reward (interest rate cut) first, implying future has to pay back in other ways.

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