3M of Stock Investment Plan (Hongkong Land)

Posted on March 16, 2020 Written by
3M of Stock Investment Plan Hongkong Land

Some investors may think Hongkong Land (SGX: H78) or any giant stock at 0% optimism is a no-brainer stock investment, simply buy now (Price-to-Book, PB ratio of 0.26 with 74% discount in price for high quality property asset) and hold long term for crisis to be over with price recovery, sure will make money with capital gains.

Above is half understanding based on pure “Method”. There are 3M to consider:

3M Investment = Method x Mind X Money Management.

Whenever any 1 of the 3M is weak or zero, entire investment plan would fail due to multiplication effect.

Let me extend the earlier sentence from 1M to 3M:

Hongkong Land is a good buy now at current price, if one is prepared to hold long term with contrarian strategy (including diversification over a portfolio of 10 global giant stocks) which is comfortable with one’s personality (eg. the person will not check share price daily, will not be sleepless each night when seeing Hongkong Land stock price may fall by another 50% in next 6-12 months). If the person is willing to lock the Hongkong Land stock share in a drawer for at least 5 years (only check the price and business fundamental quarterly), then probably near to the rare quality of 5% group of contrarian investors. The person would be similar to Warren Buffett mindset, able to take the finger pointing by others (eg. “you are wrong, should not buy, now is a bad market, etc”).

Let’s do a simulation of application of only 1M (Method). After buying Hongkong Land (assuming the same low price now with PB ratio = 0.26), assuming Coronavirus could be out of control in US & Europe in next few months, many death reported, global stock markets drop from current mid optimism to low optimism, Hongkong Land may fall down another 25% in price. If global financial crisis is induced due to weaker economy over 6-12 months, then Hongkong Land could fall down another 25%, perhaps the PB could be 0.26/2 = 0.13 then (more discount given).

If the person is very comfortable with falling in share prices (treat is as different degree of discount, no need to buy at the most discount with the lowest price) as main concern is to ensure asset value with business won’t be affected in long term. If there is a global financial crisis, it is possible for Hong Kong property valuation to drop 20%, especially Hong Kong property market is at relatively higher price or optimism level over the past 20+ years but it usually won’t last long in this way), then it is a good buy for this person, especially if the position of Hongkong Land stock is no more than 10% of entire portfolio.

Some investors may think if one follows exactly as the Method required (either long term investing or short term trading), then there is no harm to follow. However, once the person make an surprised loss (Mind Control is affected), especially over trade or invest in only 1 stock (poor Money Management).

In short, when finding a Method for stock investment, learn and choose a strategy aligned with own personality (many factors to consider), not just because it is a “sure win” Method. Due to mismatch of personality, this is why traders mindset may fail in investing, while investor mindset may fail in trading. There is also 5% of rare group which could invest and trade, having “dual” personalities, able to make money in both short term trading and long term investing. For majority of the people, there is no need to be greedy to earn all the money in the market, just focus on 1 way comfortable with oneself, be the master with years of practice with stock market experience as the teacher.

There are 30 STI index component stocks including Hongkong Land (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

There is no get-rich-quick or sure-win investment or trading method. Each “Method” requires own experience with own “Money” through own “Mind” to convert into a skill which is repeated. Some may take more time, some may be faster to achieve this goal. The current stock market crisis could be a pain to many people but will be helpful in reshaping one’s strategy (经一事、长一智).

Apply probability investing in planning of stock investment or trading. High probability does not mean 100%, even cash deposit in bank is not 100% safe. A weak bank could go bankrupt, $1 Million deposit could only get $75k compensation. Risk tolerance level is also one of the “PA” (Personal Analysis).

There are 140 property & construction stocks in Singapore including Hongkong Land (47 of them are undervalue with PB<1):
3Cnergy (SGX: 502), A-Smart (SGX: BQC), AEI^ (SGX: AWG), AIMS Property (SGX: BVP), APAC Realty (SGX: CLN), Abterra (SGX: L5I), Acromec (SGX: 43F), Amara (SGX: A34), Amcorp Global (SGX: S9B), AnnAik (SGX: A52), Astaka (SGX: 42S), BBR (SGX: KJ5), BRC Asia (SGX: BEC), BlackGoldNatural (SGX: 41H), Boldtek (SGX: 5VI), Bonvests (SGX: B28), Boustead (SGX: F9D), Boustead Projects (SGX: AVM), Bukit Sembawang (SGX: B61), Bund Center (SGX: BTE), CSC (SGX: C06), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Casa (SGX: C04), Chemical Industries (SGX: C05), China Great Land (SGX: D50), China International (SGX: BEH), China Real Estate (SGX: 5RA), China Yuanbang (SGX: BCD), Chip Eng Seng (SGX: C29), City Development (SGX: C09), DISA (SGX: 532), Debao Property (SGX: BTF), ETC Singapore (SGX: 1C0), Edition (SGX: 5HG), EnGro Corporation (SGX: S44), Fraser and Neave F&N (SGX: F99), Far East Orchard (SGX: O10), Figtree (SGX: 5F4), First Sponsor (SGX: ADN), Fragrance (SGX: F31), Frasers Property (SGX: TQ5), GYP Properties (SGX: AWS), Gallant Venture (SGX: 5IG), Golden Energy (SGX: AUE), Goodland (SGX: 5PC), GuocoLand (SGX: F17), HL Global Enterprises (SGX: AVX), Hatten Land (SGX: PH0), Heeton (SGX: 5DP), Hiap Hoe (SGX: 5JK), Hiap Seng (SGX: 510), Ho Bee Land (SGX: H13), Hock Lian Seng (SGX: J2T), Hong Fok (SGX: H30), Hong Lai Huat (SGX: CTO), Hong Leong Asia (SGX: H22), Hongkong Land USD (SGX: H78), Hor Kew (SGX: BBP), Huationg Global (SGX: 41B), Hwa Hong (SGX: H19), IPC Corp (SGX: AZA), ISOTeam (SGX: 5WF), Imperium Crown (SGX: 5HT), Jasper Investments (SGX: FQ7), KOP (SGX: 5I1), KSH (SGX: ER0), Keong Hong (SGX: 5TT), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), King Wan (SGX: 554), Koh Brothers (SGX: K75), Koon (SGX: 5DL), Kori (SGX: 5VC), LHN (SGX: 41O), Ley Choon (SGX: Q0X), Lian Beng (SGX: L03), Low Keng Huat (SGX: F1E), Lum Chang (SGX: L19), MMP Resources (SGX: F3V), MYP (SGX: F86), Metro (SGX: M01), OIO (SGX: KUX), OKH Global (SGX: S3N), OKP (SGX: 5CF), OneApex (SGX: 5SY), Oxley (SGX: 5UX), PSL (SGX: BLL), Pacific Century (SGX: P15), Pacific Star Development (SGX: 1C5), Pan Hong (SGX: P36), Pavillon (SGX: 596), Perennial Holdings (SGX: 40S), Pollux Properties (SGX: 5AE), PropNex (SGX: OYY), Raffles Infrastructure (SGX: LUY), Regal International (SGX: UV1), Renaissance United (SGX: I11), Rich Capital (SGX: 5G4), Roxy-Pacific (SGX: E8Z), Ryobi Kiso (SGX: BDN), SHS (SGX: 566), SLB Development (SGX: 1J0), SP Corporation (SGX: AWE), Sasseur Reit (SGX: CRPU), Second Chance (SGX: 528), Sin Heng Mach (SGX: BKA), Sinarmas Land (SGX: A26), SingHaiyi (SGX: 5H0), SingHoldings (SGX: 5IC), Singapore-eDev (SGX: 40V), Sinjia Land (SGX: 5HH), Soilbuild Construction Group (SGX: S7P), Starland (SGX: 5UA), Straits Trading (SGX: S20), Swee Hong (SGX: QF6), Sysma (SGX: 5UO), TA (SGX: PA3), TTJ (SGX: K1Q), Tai Sin Electric (SGX: 500), Thakral (SGX: AWI), Thomson Medical Group (SGX: A50), Tiong Seng (SGX: BFI), Top Global (SGX: BHO), Tosei (SGX: S2D), Transcorp (SGX: T19), Tritech (SGX: 5G9), UIC (SGX: U06), UOA (SGX: EH5), UOL (SGX: U14), USP Group (SGX: BRS), Vibrant Group (SGX: BIP), Wee Hur (SGX: E3B), Wing Tai (SGX: W05), Yanlord Land (SGX: Z25), Yeo Hiap Seng (SGX: Y03), Ying Li International (SGX: 5DM), Yoma Strategic (SGX: Z59), Yongmao (SGX: BKX), Yongnam (SGX: AXB), Yorkshine (SGX: MR8).

For students before joining 6-day Ein55 course (www.ein55.com/course), they would do this homework (a series of psychological tests) to know their unique personality better, before aligning with the strategies later.

Stock investment is not as easy as it sounds but when one aligns with own personality, it would become a positive habit, as easy as breathing or drinking water.

Learn from Dr Tee 4hr free investment course on 3M way of stock investment or trading with a dream team of global giant stocks. Register Here: www.ein55.com

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)
Filed Under: Property Market, Stock Market, Value Investing Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Contrarian Investing Stock – Hongkong Land (SGX: H78)

Posted on March 15, 2020 Written by
Contrarian Investing Stock Hongkong Land

Hongkong Land (SGX: H78) is at 0% Optimism after falling in share prices over the past few years (especially over the past few months), very bearish (similar situation for other Jardine Group siblings of giant stocks – JMH, JSH, Jardine C&C, Dairy Farm, etc). Jardine Group of stocks are mainly suitable for contrarian investors (i.e. Warren Buffett styles) who only buy based on price below value, ignoring the falling knife of share prices.

There are 30 STI index component stocks including Hongkong Land (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

Price to book ratio (PB) of Hongkong Land is around 0.26 based on my memory (presented in yesterday workshop), implying 74% discount of price below net asset value which mostly is property. This is the lowest PB or most undervalue stage of Hongkong Land history over the past 10+ years.

If one could buy a giant stock with 50% discount in high quality asset (property or cash), even the company go bankrupt immediately, still can make money as the person only pays for 50% of the value, could get at 70% of remaining asset when company go under liquidation.

Of course, Jardine Group with nearly 200 years of history may disappoint investor for not able to go bankrupt immediately (it is a game of patience), Hongkong Land buildings still stand firm despite Hong Kong protesters 1 year ago and current with Coronavirus or global stock market meltdown.

It is not easy to be a contrarian investor (Be greedy when others are fearful; Be fearful when others are greedy), one needs to have independent thinking (eg. many people point fingers at Warren Buffett for wrong move to buy airline stocks with falling in prices and businesses). Alternatively, one has to switch off all the channels (eg. social media, news, newspaper, etc) to prevent the noises. Investment journey is lonely, especially for this group of rare contrarian investors, only 5% of investors may have this personality.

Most investors are more suitable for trend-following trading or investing as it is human nature to investor making money, not making loss (even it may be for a limited period of time). Either contrarian investors or trend-following traders are fine, more importantly one needs to align with own personality, do not force oneself to copy another expert’s best method (eg. Warren Buffett styles), ending up regret for life as could not follow through.

There are 140 property & construction stocks in Singapore including Hongkong Land (47 of them are undervalue with PB<1):
3Cnergy (SGX: 502), A-Smart (SGX: BQC), AEI^ (SGX: AWG), AIMS Property (SGX: BVP), APAC Realty (SGX: CLN), Abterra (SGX: L5I), Acromec (SGX: 43F), Amara (SGX: A34), Amcorp Global (SGX: S9B), AnnAik (SGX: A52), Astaka (SGX: 42S), BBR (SGX: KJ5), BRC Asia (SGX: BEC), BlackGoldNatural (SGX: 41H), Boldtek (SGX: 5VI), Bonvests (SGX: B28), Boustead (SGX: F9D), Boustead Projects (SGX: AVM), Bukit Sembawang (SGX: B61), Bund Center (SGX: BTE), CSC (SGX: C06), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Casa (SGX: C04), Chemical Industries (SGX: C05), China Great Land (SGX: D50), China International (SGX: BEH), China Real Estate (SGX: 5RA), China Yuanbang (SGX: BCD), Chip Eng Seng (SGX: C29), City Development (SGX: C09), DISA (SGX: 532), Debao Property (SGX: BTF), ETC Singapore (SGX: 1C0), Edition (SGX: 5HG), EnGro Corporation (SGX: S44), Fraser and Neave F&N (SGX: F99), Far East Orchard (SGX: O10), Figtree (SGX: 5F4), First Sponsor (SGX: ADN), Fragrance (SGX: F31), Frasers Property (SGX: TQ5), GYP Properties (SGX: AWS), Gallant Venture (SGX: 5IG), Golden Energy (SGX: AUE), Goodland (SGX: 5PC), GuocoLand (SGX: F17), HL Global Enterprises (SGX: AVX), Hatten Land (SGX: PH0), Heeton (SGX: 5DP), Hiap Hoe (SGX: 5JK), Hiap Seng (SGX: 510), Ho Bee Land (SGX: H13), Hock Lian Seng (SGX: J2T), Hong Fok (SGX: H30), Hong Lai Huat (SGX: CTO), Hong Leong Asia (SGX: H22), Hongkong Land USD (SGX: H78), Hor Kew (SGX: BBP), Huationg Global (SGX: 41B), Hwa Hong (SGX: H19), IPC Corp (SGX: AZA), ISOTeam (SGX: 5WF), Imperium Crown (SGX: 5HT), Jasper Investments (SGX: FQ7), KOP (SGX: 5I1), KSH (SGX: ER0), Keong Hong (SGX: 5TT), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), King Wan (SGX: 554), Koh Brothers (SGX: K75), Koon (SGX: 5DL), Kori (SGX: 5VC), LHN (SGX: 41O), Ley Choon (SGX: Q0X), Lian Beng (SGX: L03), Low Keng Huat (SGX: F1E), Lum Chang (SGX: L19), MMP Resources (SGX: F3V), MYP (SGX: F86), Metro (SGX: M01), OIO (SGX: KUX), OKH Global (SGX: S3N), OKP (SGX: 5CF), OneApex (SGX: 5SY), Oxley (SGX: 5UX), PSL (SGX: BLL), Pacific Century (SGX: P15), Pacific Star Development (SGX: 1C5), Pan Hong (SGX: P36), Pavillon (SGX: 596), Perennial Holdings (SGX: 40S), Pollux Properties (SGX: 5AE), PropNex (SGX: OYY), Raffles Infrastructure (SGX: LUY), Regal International (SGX: UV1), Renaissance United (SGX: I11), Rich Capital (SGX: 5G4), Roxy-Pacific (SGX: E8Z), Ryobi Kiso (SGX: BDN), SHS (SGX: 566), SLB Development (SGX: 1J0), SP Corporation (SGX: AWE), Sasseur Reit (SGX: CRPU), Second Chance (SGX: 528), Sin Heng Mach (SGX: BKA), Sinarmas Land (SGX: A26), SingHaiyi (SGX: 5H0), SingHoldings (SGX: 5IC), Singapore-eDev (SGX: 40V), Sinjia Land (SGX: 5HH), Soilbuild Construction Group (SGX: S7P), Starland (SGX: 5UA), Straits Trading (SGX: S20), Swee Hong (SGX: QF6), Sysma (SGX: 5UO), TA (SGX: PA3), TTJ (SGX: K1Q), Tai Sin Electric (SGX: 500), Thakral (SGX: AWI), Thomson Medical Group (SGX: A50), Tiong Seng (SGX: BFI), Top Global (SGX: BHO), Tosei (SGX: S2D), Transcorp (SGX: T19), Tritech (SGX: 5G9), UIC (SGX: U06), UOA (SGX: EH5), UOL (SGX: U14), USP Group (SGX: BRS), Vibrant Group (SGX: BIP), Wee Hur (SGX: E3B), Wing Tai (SGX: W05), Yanlord Land (SGX: Z25), Yeo Hiap Seng (SGX: Y03), Ying Li International (SGX: 5DM), Yoma Strategic (SGX: Z59), Yongmao (SGX: BKX), Yongnam (SGX: AXB), Yorkshine (SGX: MR8).

Learn from Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to apply 10 different strategies for 10 unique personalities for stock trading or investing, including contrarian investing and trend-following trading. Register Here: www.ein55.com

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Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)
Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Property Market, Stock Market Tagged: , , , , , , , , ,

Opportunity after Brexit to Invest in Li Ka-Shing Portfolio and other Blue Chips

Posted on June 29, 2016 Written by

Ein55 Newsletter No 032 - image - Brexit and Li Ka Shing

The Brexit crisis is a blessing in disguise, many people sell away their best stocks out of fear, creating a rare opportunity to buy blue chips at intermediate low prices. People worry about the status of London as global financial center, many bank stocks are affected. Share price of top UK Bank, Barclays, was falling by 30%, while global major banks such as JP Morgan and Citigroup, were corrected more than 10% in share prices.

Many global blue chip stocks with business in UK, become target for speculation.  The richest man in Asia, Li Ka-Shing, suffers the most.  The #1 stock in Hong Kong (Cheung Kong Hutchison Holdings, HKEX: 0001), is severely corrected is stock price, currently at $82, down by about 1/3 from its peak price of $122 (see chart below).  In the last stock market cycle, an investor could apply Optimism Strategy developed by Dr Tee to buy Cheung Kong at $35 (25% Optimism) in year 2009, selling at $105 (75% Optimism) with potential gain of 3 times.  Usually it is hard to wait for the giant stocks to fall down, Brexit has helped to correct the long-term Optimism to 46%, getting closer for an investor to consider again.  At the same time, mid-term Optimism of Cheung Kong is down to 0%, an attractive price for trading.

This is a rare opportunity for investor, share price correction is partly due to Brexit, economy slowdown in Hong Kong / China and major correction in Hang Seng Index (HSI). Optimism is a probability calculator, we could estimate the reward to risk ratio, we could safely consider a good stock if we could wait for the giant to fall down.  However, the short term trend is negative due to bearish global stock market sentiments, an investor could apply trading strategy to buy this stock when sentiment is positive again.

Ein55 Newsletter No 032 - image - Brexit and Li Ka Shing

When Optimism Strategies are combined with Fundamental Analysis (value investing & growth investing), Technical Analysis (support / resistance / trends), and Personal Analysis (mind control of greed and fear), it is very powerful when one is able to take the right action (Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait or Short) at the right time aligning with own personality.

The unique Optimism Strategy developed by Dr Tee provides a special advantage to know which investment (stock, forex, property, commodity, bond, etc) to buy safely, when to buy, when to sell, including option of long term holding.  So far over 10,000 audience have benefited from Dr Tee high quality free courses to the public.  Take action now to invest in your financial knowledge, starting your journey towards financial freedom.

Brexit has created new stock trading and investing opportunities globally.  At the same time, British Pound is severely corrected, one could apply Forex Optimism to maximize the gains in stock market.   The fear factor has supported the bullish gold price and gold related stocks (eg. gold miners), analysis with Commodity Optimism is needed.  Every crisis is an opportunity, provided one knows how to position.

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market, Stocks A-Z, Value Investing Tagged: , ,

Café de Coral – Hong Kong Fast Food Giant Stock (Investment Trip with Personal Analysis)

Posted on June 24, 2016 Written by

Ein55 Newsletter No 031 - image - Cafe de Coral

In the vacation trip to Hong Kong with family, I also take the opportunity to study a few good Hong Kong stocks through actual involvement as a customer of their business.  This strategy is called Personal Analysis (PA), also applied by Peter Lynch, the best Fund Manager, who identified the best businesses through daily life observations.

Since we were hungry, we have decided to go around the Nathan Road near Mong Kok area. We ran across Café de Coral (大家乐), a local Hong Kong fast food restaurant. We could not even find a seat at 6pm, business was so good. Then we walked further, there is another branch, manage to find a seat after waiting.

We ordered baked rice, the portion is so big and the taste is good, although it was prepared in about 5 min. The business continue to be good, full house until 7:30pm when we left.  We walked further, seeing a few more Café de Coral. It seems to be more popular than McDonald in Hong Kong, so many branches and business are good.

Daily life observation is a powerful investing technique (Personal Analysis, PA) when combined with Fundamental Analysis (FA) to confirm Café de Coral indeed has strong earning and cash flow records. An investor could then apply Optimism Strategy to buy a share of this business through stock market, ideally at Level 3 or Level 4 crisis for investing, or Level 2 crisis for trading, adding Technical Analysis (TA) and macroeconomy analysis of Kong Kong if needed.

Ein55 Newsletter No 031 - image - Cafe de Coral Optimism

Café de Coral (HKEX: 0341) has increased in share price by more than 11 times in the last 16 years.  Long-term Optimism of this giant fast food stock is 9% at current share price, low downside (9%) and high upside (91%).  This is a rare opportunity for investor, share price correction is partly due to economy slowdown in Hong Kong and major correction in Hang Seng Index (HSI). Optimism is a probability calculator, we could estimate the reward to risk ratio, we could safely consider a good stock if we could wait for the giant to fall down.  However, the short term trend is negative due to bearish global stock market sentiments, therefore only investors with long term holding power could enter with counter trend (price could become lower in short term). If not, trading strategy could be considered.

 

 

Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Stock Market, Stocks A-Z, Value Investing Tagged: , , ,
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