3 Exit Strategies When Crisis Stock Becomes Profits (Tianjin Da Ren Tang)(丰收季节)

Posted on April 17, 2023 Written by

With strong recovery of China / Hong Kong stocks after ending of zero COVID policy and strong rebound of US technology stocks with consistently lower inflation rates, some giant stocks surge to new historical high in share prices.  This is a good problem to have for stock investor or trader when there are high capital gains (eg. more than 2 times).

Knowing What to Buy and When to Buy help to start the investing journey at the right time and right direction. However, knowing When to Sell (take profits) or How Long to Hold with alignment to own personality is the ultimate plan.

Let’s learn from Dr Tee on 3 Exit Strategies When a crisis stock becomes highly profitable (丰收季节). A recent Dr Tee Graduate success of a giant stock, Tianjin Pharmaceutical Da Ren Tang (SGX: T14 / China Shanghai: 600329) is applied as an example.

Congratulations to readers who may have taken action on Tianjin Da Ren Tang (strong fundamental China healthcare giant stock, dual listing in SGX and China) mentioned in Dr Tee articles on 2 Oct 2020 ($0.79 share price, Cyclic & Dividend investing), 31 Aug 2021 ($1.32 share price, Growth / Dividend investing) and 17 Feb 2023 ($1.30 share price, Growth / Momentum trading), as well as recent public webinar on 25 Mar 2023 ($1.39 share price, Momentum trading). Current share price (17 Apr 2023) is $2.26, exceeding the Ein55 intrinsic value of $1.50 mentioned, aiming for >$2.50 high Ein55 Optimism price with more greed recently.

Dr Tee graduates were assigned homework on this stock in May 2020 ($0.68 share price, low Ein55 Optimism level for Cyclic + Growth + Dividend + Undervalue investing, see chart below) and again in July 2021 ($1.20 share price), not only share price has climbed up with over 3X capital gains ($0.68 to $2.26), also enjoying an enormous dividend yield = (dividend / price) = ($0.17/$0.68) = 25%, after dividend payments have grown 4X over the 3 years, supported by strong earnings (>70% business is Traditional Chinese Medicine, remaining is western medicine, etc).

Unlike other business (eg. technology / glove) which may have huge earnings surge during the first 2 years of pandemic (then suffer when both earnings and share prices are corrected post pandemic as the high business growth is not sustainable), Tianjin Da Ren Tang has been consistent and sustainable in business growth before / during / post pandemic. With ending of zero COVID policy in China, Tianjin Da Ren Tang enjoys the free ride together to higher Ein55 Optimism level, exceeding intrinsic value (about $1.50) and driven by market greed recently towards high Ein55 Optimism >$2.50.

The stock formerly was named Tianjin Zhongxin, after change in major shareholder, later renamed to Tianjin Da Ren Tang, partly to reflect its true historical value for the past century (eg. comparable with the same TCM school of more famous Beijing Tong Ren Tang). Tianjin Da Ren Tang is relatively less well known to global investors (unlike other Top 10 largest TCM or healthcare stocks in China) which makes it significantly undervalue, especially for dual listed stock in SGX vs China (eg. on 4 Nov 2022, share price was US$1/share in SGX but RMB 28.26 / 6.87 = US$ 4.11), about 4X price difference in the past, but Tianjin Da Ren Tang in SGX catches up recently to narrow down the gap with China listed stock to (40.08 / 6.87) / 2.26 = 2.6 times on 17 Apr 2023. 

Even so, it is still over 2X difference between SGX and Shanghai listed stock, therefore there have been some speculations that SGX listed stock (about 1/3 total shares) may be acquired one day.  In fact, when there was a change in major shareholder a few years ago, due to regulation, a low-ball offer (less than US$1) was proposed but this was just for formality, “acquisition” was not successful. In fact, Tianjin shares in SG are mostly owned by retail investors, major shareholders (who own 2/3 shares in China) would need to buy up significantly (relative to 2.6X difference of China stock) if the stock may be acquired to delist one day.

By right, both 1/3 SGX stock and 2/3 China Shanghai stock should have close to 1:1 share price since stock value is the same.  Therefore, the earlier 4X undervalue of SGX listed of Tianjin Da Ren Tang has make it an excellent dividend stock, especially its dividend is doubled during recent announcement on 31 Mar 2023, together with 2X in earlier 2 years, total of 4X dividend growth in 4 years, resulting in an unbelievable 25% dividend yield for medium term investors who could take action 3 years ago ($0.68 in May 2020 for Dr Tee graduates).

While celebrating the success for Tianjin Da Ren Tang with 3X Capital Gains and 25% Dividend Yield, an investor or trader may worry when to exit.  If sell too early, one may regret as stock may goes up further to higher Ein55 Optimism level driven by greed and social media publicity. If sell too late, the rally may be over, corrected back to square one, less profitable.  Therefore, even making profits could be a headache, although it is a good problem to have.

Let’s apply 3 Exit Strategies of Dr Tee with LOFTP (Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal) Strategies to take profits. This is not limited to Tianjin Da Ren Tang (one has to make own decision aligning to own personality), may be applied to any giant stock with profits gained so far.

1) Contrarian Sell (Counter-trend)
Similar to “Buy Low” at Low Optimism with bearish prices, a contrarian investor may sell at High Optimism (eg. >$2.50 for Tianjin Da Ren Tang) with bullish uptrend prices (counter trend).  Contrarian is against the majority, eg Buy when others were fearful 3 years ago during pandemic and Sell when others are greedy one day (eg. current market).

However, this strategy requires to know where is Low or High (eg. need knowledge of Ein55 Optimism with intrinsic value of a stock), else Buy Low may get lower (worst may go bankrupt for a junk stock with weak business), Sell High may get higher (>2-10X). A useful finetuning strategy is selling progressively (eg. sell 10% share whenever price is up by 10%, selling 100% when it is up by 100% or 2X).  This is similar to an investor who “Average Down” (entry in batches) to Buy Low a few years ago.  The weakness of this method is potential profits could be limited with progressive sell, balanced by the benefits of multiple more predictable exit points.

A special smart strategy is to sell 50% shares whenever stock price is 2X (eg. Tianjin Da Ren Tang from $0.68 to $1.36, or from $1 to $2, exit price depending on entry prices X2). This way, the initial capital of an investor is recovered (assuming commission and dividends are neglected), this would give confidence to an investor to take higher risk to hold longer time for the remaining 50% shares, aiming for even higher prices as psychologically, the investor knows that one will not make a loss anymore when 50% profits are taken with 2X prices, even a company may go bankrupt in future.

Assuming there is a good problem to have, share price goes up by another 2X after selling 50%, then an investor may sell 50% of remaining 50% = 25% when share price is 4X (eg. Tianjin Da Ren Tang from $0.68 to $2.72). Continue to sell 50% each time on remaining shares if any stock may become rocket high next time (eg. buy IFAST stock last time during pandemic at $1, sell 50% when come to $2, sell 25% when come to $4, sell 12.25% when come to $8, only left 12.25% shares today, else IFAST stock is corrected to below $5 currently if buy & hold till today).


2) Follow-trend Sell
Many retail investors and traders are more suitable for trend-following trading, eg. Buy a stock (low or fair or high price) with support of stronger uptrend prices. Similarly, they feel “safer” or more comfortable to sell when trend is reversed from uptrend to downtrend.  This requires knowledge of share price reversal, eg. application of Technical Analysis, however one may regret after selling as the signal could be too fast, eg. taking 10% profits but stock may continue to go up over 2X, unless the traders continue to buy back again in future to follow the uptrend.

A more practical trend-following is to define own personality first, eg. short term, medium term or long term. This way, one may identify the right indicator to sell (aligned to earlier buy signal). A simple but smart strategy is to apply a trailing stop with X% correction during uptrend price, short term trader may sell when it corrects down by 5-10% one day (eg. Sell if Tianjin Da Ren Tang drops by 10% or around $0.22), medium term trader may wait for 10-20% (eg. Sell if Tianjin Da Ren Tang drops by 20% or around $0.44), long term investor may even able to tolerate >20-30% (acceptable since they have hold with over 2-3X capital gains). 

Alternatively, a trader may finetune with any systematic trading system (eg. moving averages crossover, MACD, stochastic, breakout of support/resistance, etc), daily, weekly or monthly, following own personality (buy & sell every few weeks, months or years).  Success trend-following is when the system matches own personality, else it would be a failure (eg. feeling of selling too early or too late).

Personality is usually ignored by investors / traders, especially for beginners, who simply busy looking for the “secret method” to make money in stocks. Ein55 Optimism has considered effects of personality in both Buy / Sell signals, integrating with LOFTP strategies.


3) No Sell (Hold)
In fact, the last exit option is not to exit at all, which may be holding for long term or lifetime, especially when business is intact, still growing consistently each year.  It means an investor may ignore the share prices volatility or even stock crisis, mainly monitoring the business performance (eg. earnings, revenue, cashflow and many other key fundamental indicators from 3 financial statements).

By the way, Tianjin Da Ren Tang is a very cyclic stock (eg. price could drop over 60% during past stock crisis, partly due to cyclic China and SG stock markets), may not be suitable for Buy and Hold strategy, unless it may evolve from cyclic to growth and dividend investing over time. With recent strong dividend growth (despite recent 2X dividend growth may not be sustainable as this is not supported by 2X earnings, only up by >10% earnings, share prices is mainly driven up due to large gap between SG and China listed stock, as well as market greed), it starts to evolve gradually.

For Buy & Hold long term or lifetime, an investor may need 10-20 giant stocks in a portfolio (eg. 50% dividend stocks + 50% growth stocks) for diversification. Stock price (usually cyclic) may not always reflect business fundamental (even it continues to grow).  If 25% dividend yield may be sustainable (may not be unless Tianjin Da Ren Tang continues to grow >10% in earnings each year), then an investor has an option to hold a stock as it only takes 4 years of dividend x 25% yearly to recover the initial capital with holding of stocks.  Current dividend yield for Tianjin Da Ren Tang is 8% (still high relative to other dividend stocks) based on current share price >$2.

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There are over 2000 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar, you could ask on any global and local stocks including but not limited to 30 STI component stocks:

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

View quick preview video below, Dr Tee will introduce 10 key stock investment strategies (股票投资十招) to be learned in 4hr free stock webinar:

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar):  www.ein55.com

Dr Tee Stock Webinar
Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Value Investing Tagged: , , , ,

Contrarian Investing for Singapore and Hong Kong Giant Dividend Stocks (独孤求败)

Posted on March 3, 2023 Written by

Contrarian investing is a unique stock strategy (eg. Buy Low Sell High) which goes against the majority or popular views as usually the big winner in an emotional stock market is minority. However, there are both hidden risks and opportunities of this strategy if not aligned properly with own personality, “honey” may become “poison” for an investor.

Let’s learn the 6 key factors of contrarian investing from Dr Tee, then applying in 2 Singapore and Hong Kong dividend giant stocks:
1) Singapore Dividend Giant Stock: Hongkong Land (SGX: H78)
2) Hong Kong Dividend Giant Reit: Link Reit (HKEX: 0823)

The best example of contrarian investor is probably Warren Buffett who believes in “Be Greedy when others are Fearful. Be Fearful when others are Greedy” (独孤求败). He has practiced this method for decades to “Buy Low Sell High” or “Buy Fair price and Hold”, proven to work for him. However, knowing does not mean the same strategy may be suitable for you.

Here are 6 key factors for contrarian investing to work:
1) Value of a company should come first before considering to buy at lower price with contrarian investing of any stock. In order to minimize the chances of “Buy Low get Lower”, a strong defensive and growing business with wide moat should be the core pillar, not just based on price alone.

2) Contrarian investing is more suitable for mid term and long term investor. As Warren Buffett said, “Stock behaves like a weighing machine in longer term”, meaning price eventually follows strength of business fundamental while “stock is like a voting machine in shorter term” (emotional prices regardless of business). It is possible (although rare) for short term investor to apply contrarian trading but this is mainly for those traders who are willing to integrate trading with long term investing, eg. when buying at 10% dip (near intermediate price support), willing to hold longer term if share price could not recover in short term with over 10% gains.

3) Timing of entry/exit for contrarian investors is usually against the majority (mass market, usually following price trends). For example, when a stock is bearish in share price (while business is intact), a contrarian investor would start to plan for entry. However, Buy Low may get lower (even for stocks with strong businesses) in a bearish market, therefore a contrarian investor may consider “Average Down” strategy, eg. entry with batches (5 x 20%) or (2 x 50%), etc. When Dr Tee Optimism strategies (Long Term / Mid Term) could be integrated, the positioning would be more systematic. Alternatively, a contrarian investor may wait for the bearish (downtrend) price to at least go sideways (eg. buying near or above strong price support) if not willing to wait for stronger price reversal to uptrend (trend-follower).

4) Alignment with Level Analysis, eg. Level 2 (Sector), Level 3 (Country) and Level 4 (World), is crucial for Contrarian Investor, eg. Buy Low during low Optimism (<25%) with Global Financial Crisis, Sell High during high Optimism (>75%) with historical best economic and stock performances. With such alignment, usually law makers of each country may provide additional support (eg. QE or printing money) during financial crisis, easier for stock to recover. Similarly, a government may cool down the stock market when economy is overheated, especially with high inflation (eg. interest rate hike).

5) Dividend giant stocks would help a contrarian investor to generate passive incomes (eg. >5-10+% dividend yield) during the difficulty time. Eg. over the past 1 year of global tech stocks correction, when growth stocks do not grow in share prices, an investor may suffer capital loss (if holding growth stocks with 0 dividend) or zero / little return (if holding cash).

6) Regardless how confident is an investor on any stock or business (including giant stock), there are always potential unsystematic risks which could be beyond the control, although it may be rare but it is never zero risk. Therefore, it is prudent to diversify over 10-20 giant stocks as a portfolio or through a giant index ETF. Even when a stock may fall to $0 or business goes bankrupt, the potential maximum capital loss of portfolio is limited to only 5-10%. Eg. if there is a portfolio of 20 dividend giant stocks with 5% dividend yield, it could generate $5 from every $100 investment yearly, therefore even if 1/20 stock may disappear ($5 loss) under very rare condition, the dividend yield ($5) could be sufficient to balance the risk of holding in long term.

Similarly, a contrarian investor would also Sell in an overheated stock market with over 75% Optimism while most trend-following traders would think this is the best time for trading. So, whether contrarian investing is “honey” (eg. Buy Low Sell High) or “poison” (eg. Buy Low Get Lower), it depends on how much integration of 6 factors above to own unique personality (eg. short term / medium term / long term). There is no best strategy in the world for stock investing but one has to find the most suitable one for own personality (eg. contrarian vs trend-following, long term investing vs short term trading, fundamental vs technical, etc).

Let’s apply contrarian investing on these 2 Singapore and Hong Kong dividend giant stocks:


1) Singapore Dividend Giant Stock: Hongkong Land (SGX: H78)

Hongkong Land has nearly 100 years of business record in property market, part of Jardine Group with about 200 years of history in China. Due to slowing Hong Kong economy and property market (especially during last 3 years of pandemic), Hongkong land share price has dropped by half over the past 5-7 years from peak price of $8+ to low prices of about $4+.

The share prices have even dropped below $4 during 2020 and 2022, the 2 worse times of pandemic in Hong Kong / China, recovering and supporting above $4 resistance (becoming support currently). A contrarian investor may consider Hongkong Land stock below $5, averaging down if needed if falling to $4.50, $4 or below. Assuming the stock may go bearish or sideways, an investor may collect about 5% dividend yield currently (higher yield if share price bought is lower), higher than Singapore Savings Bond of 3% interest (purely passive income, no potential capital gain).

More importantly, Hongkong Land has 2/3 investment properties (mostly collecting rental in Hong Kong / Singapore / China, behaving like a Reit with strong rental business) and 1/3 development properties (mostly in China, having a mega project with $4 Billions investment in West Bund of Shanghai). China / HK has ended zero COVID policy, Hongkong Land business is expected to recover strongly (especially for development projects in China) with this Level 3 (country) alignment of policy.

Hongkong Land is still at low Ein55 Optimism (<25%) but recovering well from correction in China pandemic 2022, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $8+/share or over $10/share when market emotion may be greedy again. The stock is well balanced, could be suitable for dividend investing (Buy & Hold for dividend), growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains), cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High) but not for trading (downtrend for short term). Hongkong Land is not a Reit but having the stability as a Reit with strong business (value), therefore may be considered for contrarian investing by some investors.

For investors with limited capital, not able to diversify over 10-20 dividend giant stocks, Singapore STI index has 30 stocks (including Hongkong Land) with 4% dividend yield, may be considered for contrarian investing but not ideal at current near fair price (40+% Optimism), may need to wait till the next Global Financial Crisis to buy STI at low.


2) Hong Kong Dividend Giant Reit: Link Reit (HKEX: 0823)

Link Reit is the largest reit in Asia and Hong Kong. It has rental business in Hong Kong, China and overseas including Singapore (recently 5% portfolio with acquisition of Jurong Point and partial Thomson Plaza). Most of the properties (including carpark business) are defensive in nature with over 10% rental reversion (critical for dividend growth over time). Due to slowing Hong Kong economy and property market (especially during last 3 years of pandemic), Link Reit share price has dropped by half over the past few years from peak price of $80+ to low prices of about $40+.

The share prices have even dropped below $40 during 2022, second major wave of pandemic in Hong Kong / China, then recovering and supporting above $60 resistance (becoming support). However, recent rights issue has corrected the share price further with over 10% below TERP (theoretical ex-rights price) of $59.70. Rights issue is a positive move the raise fund for overseas expansion but it is viewed negatively by the market (some retail investors may not like to top up extra money to invest in stocks). A contrarian investor may consider Link Reit below $60 (considering rights as a gift with extra 30% discount while value or business remains intact), averaging down if needed if falling to $50, $40 or below. Assuming the stock may go bearish or sideways, an investor may collect about 5.7% dividend yield currently (higher yield if share price bought is lower).

The latest rights issue is considered Ver 3.0 expansion for Link Reit to global market (mainly asia pacific including Australia, Singapore, etc), in addition to Ver 1.0 expansion (locally in Hong Kong) and Ver 2.0 expansion (China). Each version of plan is about a decade plan, critical for Link Reit to remain competitive and growing in a sustainable way. The portfolio can be expanded further with more yield accretive assets globally, allowing dividend yield of entire Reit portfolio to grow further. However, it takes time for both business growth (Version 3.0) and share price growth.

Link Reit is still at low Ein55 Optimism (<25%) but recovering well from correction in China pandemic 2022 (but suffering from “normal” market fear of rights issues), aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $100/share or over $120/share when market emotion may be greedy again. The stock is well balanced, may be suitable for dividend investing (Buy & Hold for dividend), growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains), cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High) but not for trading (downtrend for short term).

For investors with limited capital, not able to diversify over 10-20 dividend giant stocks, Hong Kong HSI (Hang Seng index) has over 60 stocks (including Link Reit) with 3% dividend yield, may also be considered for contrarian investing as Optimism is also low (<25%), aligning with Link Reit.

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There are over 2000 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar, you could ask on any global and local stocks including but not limited to 30 STI component stocks:

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

View quick preview video below, Dr Tee will introduce 10 key stock investment strategies (股票投资十招) to be learned in 4hr free stock webinar:

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar):  www.ein55.com

Dr Tee Stock Webinar
Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market Tagged: , , ,

Dr Tee Free 3hr Video Course: Defensive High Growth Singapore Giant Stocks (防御型高成长的新加坡强巨股)

Posted on November 29, 2020 Written by

In this Dr Tee 3-hr video education (Defensive High Growth Singapore Giant Stocks), you will learn:
1) COVID-19 Stock Crisis Recovery Rally with Sector Rotations
2) Singapore and Malaysia Stock Market Outlook 2021
3) Defensive Singapore Giant Stocks
4) Dividend Singapore Giant Stocks / REITs
5) High Growth Singapore Giant Stocks
6) Short Term Trading and Long Term Investing Strategies during Pandemic
7) Many Case Studies with Q&A of Audience

Here is Dr Tee Free 3-hr Video Course (suitable for bilingual learners: verbal presentation in Chinese, written notes in English, technical charts for everyone). Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks.

Dr Tee Video Course: https://youtu.be/KkV9MvZypCA

在这Dr Tee 三小时教育视频（防御型高成长的新加坡强巨股），您可学习：
1） COVID-19 股灾的牛市反弹良机。
2） 新加坡与马来西亚2021股市展望。
3） 新加坡成长股。
4） 新加坡高息股、房地产信托股。
5） 新加坡成长股。
6） 短期交易与长期投资策略。
7） 现场观众个股分析与问答环节。

这儿是 Dr Tee 免费三小时华语课程 （适合双语学员：华语表达，英语讲义，图表皆通）。请欣赏鄙作，留言求进步。您可订阅 Dr Tee Youtube 频道(Ein Tee)，链接未来投资视频。

Dr Tee 华语视频: https://youtu.be/KkV9MvZypCA

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There are over 1500 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar, you could ask on any global and local stocks including but not limited to 30 STI component stocks:

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

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Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Stock Market Tagged: , , , ,

7 CapitaLand Giant REITs for Dividend (CMT + CCT = CICT) (双剑合璧)

Posted on April 29, 2020 Written by
CapitaLand Giant REITs for Dividend

CapitaLand is Temasek property giant stock, having 2 giant Singapore REITs: CapitaLand Mall Trust (CMT) and CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CCT). Many Singapore investors like REITs for passive income generation through quarterly dividend payment. After the announcement of merging, both REITs suffer about 40% price correction during global stock crisis with Coronavirus fear, dividend yields are more than 6%, attractive for long term investors.

Some potential REIT investors would like to know should they invest in CMT or CCT before the merging, which one has more potential, or should they wait until the merging of 2 REITs into CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT), the largest Singapore REIT by June 2020.

Read the article further to find out the critical answers for CMT and CCT, not learning only 2 REITs but all 7 stocks related to parent stock CapitaLand, including 4 REITs and trusts in the same group: Ascendas REIT, Ascott Residence Trust, Ascendas India Trust and CapitaLand Retail China Trust.

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CapitaLand is the largest property developer in Asia (after merging with Ascendas and Singbridge), becoming a key Temasek property investment portfolio.  CapitaLand has total of 6 REITs / Business Trust in Singapore:

1) CapitaLand (SGX: C31) – Singapore Property Giant Stock

2) CapitaLand Mall Trust, CMT (SGX: C38U) – Retail REIT Giant Dividend Stock

3) CapitaLand Commercial Trust, CCT (SGX: C61U) – Office REIT Giant Dividend Stock

4) Ascendas REIT (SGX: A17U) – Industrial REIT Giant Dividend Stock

5) Ascott Residence Trust (SGX: HMN) – Hospitality REIT Dividend Stock

6) Ascendas India Trust (SGX: CY6U) – Business Trust Dividend Stock

7) CapitaLand Retail China Trust (SGX: AU8U) – Retail REIT Dividend Stock

In summary, all 7 CapitaLand group of stocks have reasonable strong business fundamental, all 6 REITs / trusts may be considered for dividend investing but only 3 of them are giant REITs stocks (based on Dr Tee giant criteria): CMT, CCT and Ascendas REIT. Sibling stocks of Ascott Residence Trust, Ascendas India Trust and CapitaLand Retail China Trust are relatively weaker, more suitable for pure dividend investing but subject to cyclic stock market risk (eg. capital loss during global stock crisis with limited long term growth). Parent stock, Capitaland, is a blue chip stock, behaving as if a fund with all the subsidiary stocks, more suitable for low capital investor who needs diversification.

There are 30 STI index component stocks including CapitaLand Mall Trust and CapitaLand Commercial Trust (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), HongkongLand (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

By law, 90% of REIT incomes has to be redistributed back to shareholders in the form of dividend, therefore it is a popular passive income generator. If a REIT pay 4 times yearly, an investor with 3 REITs could receive 12 payments yearly, helping to offset monthly expenses. When return from monthly dividend is more than monthly expenses, an investor would become financial free. However, certain REITs may not pay consistent dividend due to unstable business and a few could even go bankrupt if not properly managed. Business Trust (eg. Ascendas India Trust) seems similar to REIT but it is not required by law to pay dividend, therefore creating an uncertainty in the future which dividend payment is not guaranteed.

In this article, we will focus on 2 giant REITs, CMT and CCT which will be merged soon. Sharing is for educational purpose, please make your own decision. Before merging announcement, CMT performs relatively better than CCT from overall investing consideration.  So, CCT investors would benefit more than CMT investor.

CapitaLand Giant REITs for Dividend CCT CMT

The merging deal is for CMT to acquire CCT by exchange every share of CCT with 0.72 share of CMT + cash $0.259/share.  Since the announcement from 22 Jan 2020 until today, CMT and CCT share prices are closely correlated as mirror image with this formula:

CCT = 0.72 CMT + 0.259

It means after the merging announcement, there is not much difference now as CMT and CCT prices movement of stocks follow the equation above closely. Even if an investor is interested in CMT, the decision of whether to invest now or after official merging in June 2020, should be based on stock market outlook, not expecting any drastic change in share price after the official merging.  In fact, over the past 2 months of global stock crisis, both CMT and CCT dropped by about 40% in share prices, even after recovering in the last few weeks, CMT is still at low optimism < 25%. In general, before merging, CMT is more defensive while CCT is more cyclic, therefore future CICT REIT may behave in between both REITs, more cyclic than CMT, more defensive than CCT.

Coronavirus pandemic has affected both CMT and CCT as some tenants may not pay rents on time but this could be recovered later when Coronavirus has ended or fading away over the next few months.  Occupancy rates of both REITs are high (about 99%), any withdrawal by tenant (eg. a few weaker F&B or consumer companies may not be able to sustain) may be quickly replaced by new tenant but rental increase would be limited. If Coronavirus is not a long term issue (under the worst case, vaccine could be developed in about 1 year), major correction in share prices for either CMT or CCT could be an opportunity to accumulate with dividend yield around 6%. Assuming the worst case of losing 20% tenants (dropping from 99% to 80% occupancy) if Coronavirus may stay for 1 more year with 20% people in the world staying at home during lockdown, average dividend yield is correct to around 5%, still better than keeping cash in bank with only 1% dividend. When crisis is over, an investor could enjoy the capital gains with potential share price appreciation due to market greed.

Before merging, CMT and CCT already has joint portfolio, eg. Raffles City (40% CMT, 60% CCT). After merging, the new CICT REIT would dominate both retail shopping malls and offices in Singapore, having more capital to expand in overseas.  However, inorganic growth through more acquisition (eg. overseas properties) may or may not add value to CICT as it depends on expertise of REIT manager, able to find high quality properties at discounted prices (eg. during economic crisis), adding more potential to DPU (dividend per unit). Over expansion sometimes may result in higher risk (higher gearing ratio, which would become higher after merging as CMT has to pay some cash to CCT investors) but acceptable for CICT with dual level sponsors of CapitaLand and Temasek.

There could be more merging and acquisition activities during the global stock crisis. A giant stock does not need to be the “biggest” company, more importantly, strong in fundamental with growing business, therefore even a small company could be a giant stock.

A smart investor may consider only the strongest subsidiary giant stock of CapitaLand group, which is protected by the sponsor CapitaLand, which is further protected by another bigger sponsor, Temasek.  This implies for the giant stock to fail (eg. go bankrupt), it has to hurt CapitaLand or even Temasek first.  However, safer stocks may not be the best choice for investment as growth are limited.

There are 52 REITs and Business Trusts stocks including CapitaLand Mall Trust and CapitaLand Commercial Trust (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
AIMS APAC Reit (SGX: O5RU), ARA Hospitality Trust USD (SGX: XZL), ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust (SGX: K2LU), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Ascendas India Trust (SGX: CY6U), Ascott Trust (SGX: HMN), Asian Pay Tv Trust (SGX: S7OU), BHG Retail Reit (SGX: BMGU), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Retail China Tr (SGX: AU8U), CDL Hospitality Trust (SGX: J85), Cromwell Reit EUR (SGX: CNNU), Cromwell Reit SGD (SGX: CSFU), Dasin Retail Trust (SGX: CEDU), Eagle Hospitality Trust USD (SGX: LIW), EC World Reit (SGX: BWCU), Elite Commercial Reit (SGX: MXNU), ESR-REIT (SGX: J91U), Far East Hospitality Trust (SGX: Q5T), First Reit (SGX: AW9U), Frasers Centrepoint Trust (SGX: J69U), Frasers Hospitality Trust (SGX: ACV), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), FSL Trust (SGX: D8DU), HPH Trust SGD (SGX: P7VU), HPH Trust USD (SGX: NS8U), IREIT Global (SGX: UD1U), Keppel Infrastructure Trust (SGX: A7RU), Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT (SGX: CMOU), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), Lendlease Reit (SGX: JYEU), Lippo Malls Trust (SGX: D5IU), Manulife Reit (SGX: BTOU), Mapletree Commmercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (SGX: RW0U), NetLink NBN Trust (SGX: CJLU), OUE Commercial Reit (SGX: TS0U), ParkwayLife Reit (SGX: C2PU), Prime US Reit (SGX: OXMU), RHT HealthTrust (SGX: RF1U), Sabana Reit (SGX: M1GU), Sasseur Reit (SGX: CRPU), Soilbuild Business Space Reit (SGX: SV3U), SPH Reit (SGX: SK6U), Starhill Global Reit (SGX: P40U), Suntec Reit (SGX: T82U), United Hampshire US Reit (SGX: ODBU).

Learn from Dr Tee 4hr Free investment course on global dividend giant stocks to collect passive income during low optimism in stock crisis, then enjoying capital gains with growing share prices when crisis is over.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 members.

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)
Filed Under: Property Market, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Value Investing Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Ein55 Charity Course: High Dividend Stocks (Learn Investing & Helping Needy People)

Posted on March 13, 2016 Written by

Ein55 Newsletter No 021 - image - Charity Course

The first charity course on REITs / Business Trust in Nov 2015 was a success (read report here), helping Ein55 Graduates in enriching the investment knowledge, helping other needy people at the same time. Chye Tin, an Ein55 Graduate Mentor and successful investor, together with Dr Tee, have organized the second Charity Course (High Dividend Stocks) on 12 Mar 2016.

The responses from Ein55 Graduates were overwhelming, about 230 students have attended this Charity Course, learning how to choose high dividend stocks, when to buy and sell them in future with investing-for-income strategies, using Fundamental Analysis, Optimism Methods and Technical Analysis.

The net income from this charity course is donated to Tzu Chi to help more needy people.  It is an honour that the CEO of Tzu Chi慈济(Singapore), Mr Low Swee Seh, also attended this charity event, sharing how Tzu Chi has helped numerous needy people regardless of races, religions and nationalities.  Through the combined effort of all Ein55 Graduates, we have donated an amount of $15,100 to Tzu Chi in this second Charity Course.

We hope to inspire more Ein55 Graduates to reach out the society, helping others who are in need.  More importantly, they have also learned the secrets of making money through passive income investing. When more Ein55 Graduates are as successful as Chye Tin, they could also contribute back to the society to help more people in future.

Here are a few useful learning points from Chye Tin in this High Dividend Stocks course:

1) We shall always ask will the dividend SUSTAINABLE and will the dividend continue to Grow? We should understand what are the factors affecting their business income? A companies without Free Cash-flow will not able to sustain the dividend pay out for long term.

2) Telecom, Utilities and Consumer Staples are considered defensive sectors that can make money in any economic environment. People are not going to shut off their power, give up their mobile line or Internet or stop buying toothpaste, food & drink when times get tough. The more predictable the revenues and earnings, the easier it is to give back some profits to shareholders.

3) For dividend investing, even in the right sector, we shall seek for the right stock that exhibited high dividend characteristic, then we shall study in detail the financial reporting of each sectors and do the peer comparison of the selected stocks in the same sector.

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