dividend stock Archives

Next Global Stock Market Rally with US Interest Rate Cut (一波三折)

Posted on September 19, 2024 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Are you excited by recent 0.5% interest cut by US Fed which may be a hidden market stimulation? US stocks (especially Dow Jones and S&P500) are near historical high, even Singapore STI is at last 6 years high >3600 points (having potential to break 2007 historical high if >3900 points, especially with stronger growth and recovery of STI which many are dividend stocks, not limited to SG REITs).

Current global stock markets are the most confusing to both long term investors and short term traders because past few decades of investment market relationship (eg. stocks vs bonds) are very different from past few years of market condition since 2020 pandemic.

A key difference is we have experienced hyper-inflation (9+%) which only happened 50 years ago in 1970s and 1980s. Over the past few decades, usually US interest rate is adjusted higher during bullish economy and stock market, cut to stimulate economy during recession. However, current market condition is closer to 1980s with hyper-inflation, US interest rate is adjusted higher to tame the hyper-inflation over 10+%. With lower inflation, then US interest rate is cut, indirectly stimulate US and global stock markets to higher level, with condition that there is no recession (eg. negative GDP growth rate).

There are 3 key supporting signals for US and global stock markets to continue the bull run (一波三折):
1) US inflation starts to fall from the peak of 9+%
2) Golden Cross for US inflation falls just below interest rate of 5+%
3) US interest rate starts to cut from the peak of 5+%

Key signals #1 and #2 (see image above) were highlighted by Dr Tee in earlier posts over the past 2 years, global stock markets, especially US stocks have shown significant appreciation since then. For readers who missed the boats, it is never too late as Key signal #3 just comes, the Fed has just start to cut interest rate by 0.5% from the peak of 5.5% in Sep 2024. In fact, early investors may follow Signal #2.5, meaning taking action >6 months ago, anticipating US will cut interest rate, especially after Signal #2 with strong confirmation of consistently lower inflation below the interest rate peak of 5+%.

A strong condition for Signal #3 is that US economy should experience soft landing, instead of hard landing as the past few decades, else interest rate cut may become a risky signal to save falling economy. Despite weaker US job market, historically it is still considered above average (below 5% unemployment rate) while inflation currently is at average (2.5%) of past few decades, there is no need to achieve ultimate goal of 2% as inflation would fluctuate (eg. between 1+% to 3+%) in a normal market.

Sectors which may benefit from US interest rate cut with growing economy (recovering stronger after soft landing) are across the board, eg. REITs, property stocks and dividend stocks (lower borrowing cost, implying more dividends expected with higher profits), technology stocks (lower borrowing cost for business expansion), industrial and most stocks (stronger business with more spending by consumers with bullish economy). Banks could have mixed effect, depending on natural of segment business, eg. interest income may fall due to lower NIM (Net Interest Margin) with lower interest rate, but volume of interest income may increase with more loans due to stronger economy, together with increasing non-interest income.

Therefore, key is to monitor the economic cycle and also stock market Optimism level (Be Greedy when others are Fearful; Be Fearful when others are Greedy). One day, a black swan may come, it is never too late to exit then or much earlier when global stock market is at high Optimism with shaky economy. It is timely now to review own stock portfolio, making decisions (Buy / Hold / Sell / Wait / Shorting) ahead of majority. Ride the next global stock rally with US interest rate cut, supported by strong global economy.

It is timely now to review own global stock portfolio, making decisions (Buy / Hold / Sell / Wait / Shorting), leveraging on market greed and fear.

===================================

There are over 2000 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar, you could ask on any global and local stocks including but not limited to 30 STI component stocks:

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

View quick preview video below, Dr Tee will introduce 10 key stock investment strategies (股票投资十招) to be learned in 4hr free stock webinar:

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Stock Market Tagged: dividend stock, economy vs stock, growth stock, US Interest Rate

Top 4 Crisis Defender Growth Stocks (一飞冲天)

Posted on February 17, 2023 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Global stock markets experienced mini bear last year with over 30% major correction in stocks, following by strong recovery in Year 2023, especially for US and Hong Kong giant stocks, supported by declining US inflation and ending of zero COVID policy in China / Hong Kong with full reopening of borders.

Instead of worrying about uncertain markets, a smart investor and trader may consider strong growth giant stocks (一飞冲天) with protection by strong growing business, a natural way to hedge against high inflation with interest rate hike while accumulating capital gains in a steady way with global pandemic recovery.

In recent 14th Ein55 Charity Course (5 Nov 2022) on Global Growth Stocks, we have raised fund of $17,000 for Tzu Chi Singapore to help needy families in Singapore. Under the spirit of charity, Dr Tee decides to share 4 defensive growth stocks in 4 countries of 4 growing sectors (pharmaceutical, agricultural, insurance and consumer discretionary) with readers as strikers in current early bullish stock markets (read each details in this article to fully understand on how to position in these giant stocks):

1) Singapore Growth Pharmaceutical Stock – TJ DaRenTang (SGX: T14)

2) Malaysia Growth Agricultural Stock – QL Resources (Bursa: 7084)

3) Hong Kong Growth Insurance Stock – Ping An Insurance (HKEx: 2318)

4) US Growth Consumer Discretionary Stock – Nike (NYSE: NKE)

The best time to invest in global growth giant stocks is always during global stock crisis (eg. Year 2020-2021 during pandemic, 2008—2009 during subprime crisis, etc), not only able to maximize the dividend yield (due to lower entry share price), also could have higher potential of capital gains (when market cycle moves from fear in low optimism to greed in high optimism). Growth stock investing is not based on stock strategy (Buy & Hold for capital gains) alone, may be integrated with cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High), dividend investing (Buy & Hold for dividends), swing / momentum trading (Buy & Hold for short term / medium term gains), defensive investing and other Ein55 strategies.

However, not all the high growth stocks (potential value trap) are suitable for growth investing. A growing business in the past may not be sustainable during or after COVID-19 period and a growth stock may not able to continue the same rate of growth. Similarly, even a growth stock may have strong and sustainable business but if share prices is bearish due to emotional stock market or declining sector, it may not be a good choice for investors to Buy Low (prices may get lower in short term), integration with trading or alignment with promising sectors would help for a smooth entry.

Fundamental Analysis alone is not sufficient, a low PB or low PE or high dividend yield stock may be a value trap as this may be the result of lower share price with weakening businesses. Therefore, deeper analysis is required with LOFTP (Level, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical, Personal Analysis) Strategies.

Let’s learn these 4 giant growth stocks from 4 promising sectors (pharmaceutical, agricultural, insurance and consumer discretionary) as defenders in 4 countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong and US), understanding the business nature, investment clock and unique strategy.

1) Singapore Growth Pharmaceutical Stock – TJ DaRenTang (SGX: T14)

During and even after COVID-19 period, TJ DaRenTang (Tianjin ZhongXin) consistently achieves outstanding growing pharmaceutical business (about 70% in TCM, Traditional Chinese Medicine). It has many patents and unique / popular products which a strong moat for future growth.

The stock is dual-listing, 1/3 in SGX (T14) and 2/3 in China SSEC (600329). Comparing using the same currency USD, China-listed stock is 4X higher price than Singapore-listed stock, resulting in Singapore stock (T14) is more valuable (from investing perspective) with 6% dividend yield with current stock price.

TJ DaRenTang is still at moderate low Ein55 Optimism (<50%) but recovering well from correction in China pandemic 2022, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $1.50/share or over $2.50/share when market emotion may be greedy again. The stock is well balanced, suitable for dividend investing (Buy & Hold for dividend), growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains) and trading (uptrend in short term), but not for cyclic investing (near to fair price).

Since the stock was shared on 5 Nov 2022 (about $1) during charity course, the share price has surged about 30% over the past 3 months.

2) Malaysia Growth Agricultural Stock – QL Resources (Bursa: 7084)

QL Resources is a major producer for eggs / chicken, during high inflation period in 2021-2022, unlike most commodity stocks, it suffered major correction in business due to price cap by Malaysia government for eggs / chicken. As a result, the past high growth is slowed down, then starts to grow again over the past few quarters with support of other growing divisions (marine products, palm oil and Family Mart operations).

QL Resources is still at low Ein55 Optimism (<25%) but recovering well from the worst time of eggs business, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $7.50/share or over $9/share when market emotion may be greedy again. The stock is more suitable for growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains) and trading (uptrend in short term).

Since the stock was shared on 5 Nov 2022 (breaking above critical $5 resistance) during charity course, the share price has climbed up about 20% over the past 3 months.

3) Hong Kong Growth Insurance Stock – Ping An Insurance (HKEx: 2318)

Over the past 3 years of pandemic, Ping An Insurance (business in China) has declined by about 1/3 but the price corrected by 2/3, aligning with the fear of Hong Kong stock market (Hang Seng Index was halved from the peak), providing a rare investing opportunity.

Ping An is undervalue, despite higher gearing ratio, core business in insurance is still defensive in nature. The parent company (Ping An) is much stronger than other subsidiaries (businesses not as good).

Ping An is still at low Ein55 Optimism (<25%) but recovering well from correction in last 3 years of pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $100/share or over $150/share when market emotion may be greedy again. The stock is all-rounded, suitable for dividend investing (Buy & Hold for dividend, 5% dividend yield currently), growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains), trading (uptrend in short term) and cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High).

Since the stock was shared on 5 Nov 2022 (about $35) during charity course, the share price is nearly doubled over the past 3 months. There is still significant upside potential, mainly due to over-correction in share price over the past 3 years.

4) US Growth Consumer Discretionary Stock – Nike (NYSE: NKE)

Nike has the largest global market share for sports shoes and related products (following by Adidas and Puma). It has many popular products which a strong moat for future growth under consumer discretionary market.

Nike is still at moderate low Ein55 Optimism (<50%) but recovering well from US stock crisis in 2022, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $150/share or over $180/share when market emotion may be greedy again. The stock is more suitable for growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains) and trading (uptrend in short term).

Since the stock was shared on 5 Nov 2022 (about $96, later breaking above critical $100 resistance) during charity course, the share price has surged about 35% over the past 3 months.

===================================

There are over 2000 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Stock Market Tagged: Charity Course, dividend stock, growth stock

4 Singapore Defensive Dividend Stocks and REITs (稳如泰山)

Posted on August 12, 2022 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In this Dr Tee 1hr video education (4 Singapore Defensive Dividend Stocks and REITs), you will learn:
1) Formation of Defensive Stock Portfolio

2) Singapore Stock Market Outlook
– Short term, medium term & long term

3) Singapore Dividend ETFs
– Singapore Index Fund: STI ETF (SGX: ES3 & G3B)
– Singapore REIT Fund: CSOP Singapore REITs ETF (SGX: SRT)

4) 4 Singapore Defensive Dividend Stocks and REITs:
– CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust / CICT (SGX: C38U)
– Mapletree Industrial Trust / MIT (SGX: ME8U)
– OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)
– Challenger Technologies (SGX: 573)

5) Defensive Investing Strategies with Low Optimism Giant Stocks
– Kiasu Personality (Average Down)
– Kiasi Personality (Average Up)

6) Bonus / Q&A
– Hong Kong Hang Seng Index vs China A50 / CSI 300 Index
– Bottom Fishing of Giant Stocks with Falling of Inflation from the Peak
– Impact of Interest Rate Hike on Bank Stocks

Here is Dr Tee Free 1-hr Video Course. Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks.

Dr Tee Video Course: https://youtu.be/szvE8t_rqs8

Past readers could have profited with over 50% rally in share price if have taken actions during pandemic on similar giant stocks at low optimism level. No one could change the past but you could still change the future if taking action to learn now!

Investing with 30 STI Index Stocks (including 3 dividend giant stocks of CICT, MIT and OCBC) is a defensive strategy, indirectly diversifying the risks among 30 large size businesses in Singapore.

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: defensive stock, dividend stock, reit

4 Defensive Undervalue-Dividend-Stocks of Singapore and Hong Kong against Black Swans

Posted on July 6, 2022 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In this Dr Tee 2hr video education (4 Defensive Undervalue Dividend Stocks), you will learn:
1) Interactive Impacts of 5 Potential Black Swans
– COVID19, High Inflation, Interest Rate Hike, Supply Chain Disruption, Russia-Ukraine War

2) Singapore and Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook
– Short term, medium term & long term

3) 4 Singapore and Hong Kong Defensive-Undervalue-Dividend Stocks:
– Singapore Index Fund: STI ETF (SGX: ES3 & G3B)
– Hong Kong Index Fund: HSI ETF (HKEX: 2800 & 2833)
– Singapore Property Giant Stock: Hongkong Land (SGX: H78)
– Hong Kong Giant Reit: Link Reit (HKEX: 0823)

4) Defensive Investing Strategies with Low Optimism Giant Stocks
– Kiasu Personality (Average Down)
– Kiasi Personality (Average Up)

5) Bonus / Q&A
– Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07)
– Alibaba (HKEX: 9988 / NYSE: Baba)
– Impact of interest rates (HDB / Banks) on Property Market

Here is Dr Tee Free 2-hr Video Course. Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks.

Dr Tee Video Course: https://youtu.be/U2JPD68YR94

Past readers could have profited with over 50% rally in share price if have taken actions during pandemic on similar giant stocks at low optimism level. No one could change the past but you could still change the future if taking action to learn now!

Investing with 30 STI Index Stocks (including Hongkong Land) is a defensive strategy, indirectly diversifying the risks among 30 large size businesses in Singapore.

Similarly, investing with 66 HSI Index Stocks (including Link Reit) is a defensive strategy (with additional protection of low optimism Hang Seng Index, leveraging on pandemic recovery and stimulus plans in China), indirectly diversifying the risks among 66 large size businesses in China / Hong Kong:

CKH HOLDINGS (HKEX: 1), CLP HOLDINGS (HKEX: 2), HK & CHINA GAS (HKEX: 3), HSBC HOLDINGS (HKEX: 5), POWER ASSETS (HKEX: 6), HANG SENG BANK (HKEX: 11), HENDERSON LAND (HKEX: 12), SHK PPT (HKEX: 16), NEW WORLD DEV (HKEX: 17), GALAXY ENT (HKEX: 27), MTR CORPORATION (HKEX: 66), HANG LUNG PPT (HKEX: 101), GEELY AUTO (HKEX: 175), ALI HEALTH (HKEX: 241), CITIC (HKEX: 267), WH GROUP (HKEX: 288), CHINA RES BEER (HKEX: 291), OOIL (HKEX: 316), SINOPEC CORP (HKEX: 386), HKEX (HKEX: 388), TECHTRONIC IND (HKEX: 669), CHINA OVERSEAS (HKEX: 688), TENCENT (HKEX: 700), CHINA UNICOM (HKEX: 762), LINK REIT (HKEX: 823), PETROCHINA (HKEX: 857), XINYI GLASS (HKEX: 868), ZHONGSHENG HLDG (HKEX: 881), CNOOC (HKEX: 883), CCB (HKEX: 939), CHINA MOBILE (HKEX: 941), LONGFOR GROUP (HKEX: 960), XINYI SOLAR (HKEX: 968), SMIC (HKEX: 981), LENOVO GROUP (HKEX: 992), CKI HOLDINGS (HKEX: 1038), HENGAN INT’L (HKEX: 1044), CSPC PHARMA (HKEX: 1093), CHINA RES LAND (HKEX: 1109), CK ASSET (HKEX: 1113), SINO BIOPHARM (HKEX: 1177), BYD COMPANY (HKEX: 1211), AIA (HKEX: 1299), CHINAHONGQIAO (HKEX: 1378), ICBC (HKEX: 1398), XIAOMI – W (HKEX: 1810), BUD APAC (HKEX: 1876), SANDS CHINA LTD (HKEX: 1928), WHARF REIC (HKEX: 1997), COUNTRY GARDEN (HKEX: 2007), ANTA SPORTS (HKEX: 2020), WUXI BIO (HKEX: 2269), SHENZHOU INTL (HKEX: 2313), PING AN (HKEX: 2318), MENGNIU DAIRY (HKEX: 2319), LI NING (HKEX: 2331), SUNNY OPTICAL (HKEX: 2382), BOC HONG KONG (HKEX: 2388), CHINA LIFE (HKEX: 2628), ENN ENERGY (HKEX: 2688), MEITUAN – W (HKEX: 3690), CM BANK (HKEX: 3968), BANK OF CHINA (HKEX: 3988), CG SERVICES (HKEX: 6098), HAIDILAO (HKEX: 6862), JD – SW (HKEX: 9618), NONGFU SPRING (HKEX: 9633), BABA – SW (HKEX: 9988), NTES – S (HKEX: 9999).

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: defensive stock, dividend stock, Hong Kong Market, reit, undervalue stock

Top 4 Crisis Defender Dividend Stocks (抗压存股)

Posted on May 12, 2022 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Global stock markets experienced mini dotcom bubble with over 30%-50% major correction in technology stocks, especially in US Nasdaq and Hong Kong. Both long term investors and short term traders are worried of high inflation over 8%, interest rate hike (may exceed 3% in 1 year), Russia-Ukraine War (higher commodity prices) which contribute to declining stock prices. A potential black swan may spread the fears in technology stocks to most sectors, resulting in a global financial crisis.

Instead of worrying about uncertain markets, a smart investor and trader may consider strong dividend giant stocks with protection by defensive sector business, a natural way to hedge against high inflation with interest rate hike while collecting growing passive incomes in a steady way.

In recent 13th Ein55 Charity Course on Global Dividend Stocks, we have raised fund of $21,700 for Tzu Chi Singapore to help needy families in Singapore. Under the spirit of charity, Dr Tee decides to share 4 defensive dividend stocks in 4 countries of 3 defensive sectors (banking & finance, utilities, oil & gas) with readers as defenders in current bearish stock markets (read each details in this article to fully understand on how to position in these giant stocks):

1) Singapore Dividend Bank Stock – OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)

2) Malaysia Dividend Bank Stock – Public Bank (Bursa: 1295)

3) Hong Kong Dividend Utility Stock – CK Infrastructure / CKI (HKEx: 1038)

4) US Dividend Oil & Gas Stock – Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD)

The best time to invest in global dividend giant stocks is always during global stock crisis (eg. Year 2020-2021 during pandemic, 2008—2009 during subprime crisis, etc), not only able to maximize the dividend yield (due to lower entry share price), also could have higher potential of capital gains (when market cycle moves from fear in low optimism to greed in high optimism). Dividend stock investing is not based on stock strategy (Buy & Hold for dividends) alone, may be integrated with cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High), growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains), swing / momentum trading (Buy & Hold for short term / medium term gains), defensive investing and other Ein55 strategies.

However, not all the high dividend yield stocks (potential value trap) are suitable for dividend investing. A growing business in the past may not be sustainable during COVID-19 period and a dividend stock may not able to continue the payment of dividend. Similarly, even a dividend stock may have strong and sustainable business but if share prices is bearish due to emotional stock market or declining sector, it may not be a good choice for investors to Buy Low (prices may get lower in short term), integration with trading or alignment with promising sectors would help for a smooth entry.

Let’s learn these 4 giant dividend stocks from 3 promising sectors (banks, utilities, oil & gas) as defenders in 4 countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong and US), understanding the business nature, investment clock and unique strategy.

1) Singapore Dividend Bank Stock – OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)

With rising interest rates globally, bank sector would earn more in interest income (mainly through higher net interest margin, NIM). With accelerated pandemic recovery, banks would also make more profits in non-interest incomes (eg. insurance, credit card, investment, fund management).

So, giant bank stocks usually are good choices for dividend stocks as defenders during bearish market but they could change position as a striker with higher capital gains when stock market is bullish.

OCBC has nearly 100 years of business with merging and acquisition of many banks, supported by major shareholder, Lee Family, as well as an important subsidiary (contributing to about 30% earnings of OCBC), Great Eastern (SGX: G07), an insurance giant stock which has over 100 years of proven operations. Both giant stocks have experienced numerous stock market “crisis” over the past decades, survival-of-the-fittest principle is fully demonstrated, not comparable by any new rising star or promising IPO stock with limited history.

OCBC has strong business performance, after 60% dividend cap during FY2020 is lifted, dividend yield is back to 4.5%, highest among the 3 major Singapore Banks (OCBC, DBS, UOB), partly due to more undervalue in share prices. Over the past 10 years, OCBC has increased dividends payment by 2.5X times, assuming similar performance in the next 10 years, dividend yield could increase to about 10% for long term investors.

OCBC is still at moderate low Ein55 Optimism (<50%) but recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $13/share (about 8% potential upside in medium term) or over $15/share when market emotion may be greedy again. The stock is well balanced, suitable for dividend investing (Buy & Hold for dividend), growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains), but not for cyclic investing (near to fair price) nor trading when trend is still sideways.

OCBC Bank is an all-rounded stock but an investor or trader may need diversification over a portfolio of 10-20 giant stocks in 3 sectors of 3 countries, not to buy only 1 giant stock (concentration risk).

2) Malaysia Dividend Bank Stock – Public Bank (Bursa: 1295)

Similar as Singapore, Malaysia bank stocks also benefit from rising interest rates and reopening of economy, especially the international borders are widely opened to tourists.

Public Bank is one of a few remaining private banks (another is Hong Leong Bank, Bursa: 5819) in Malaysia with strong growing businesses. Public Bank is very prudent in expenses, staff cost is one of the lowest among the peers. It also has an insurance giant stock (LPI, Bursa: 8621) as subsidiary.

Relative to OCBC and peers in Singapore, Public Bank is moderate in dividend payment (about 3.3% dividend based on current share prices) but stronger in growth and high cyclic potential due to share prices heavily discounted over the past few years with lagging Malaysia economy.

Public Bank is still at moderate low Ein55 Optimism (<50%) but recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $6/share (about 30% potential upside in medium term). The stock is well balanced, suitable for dividend investing (Buy & Hold for dividend), growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains), cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High) and even trading when price is back to uptrend in short term.

Public Bank is an all-rounded stock but an investor or trader may need diversification over a portfolio of 10-20 giant stocks in 3 sectors of 3 countries, not to buy only 1 giant stock (concentration risk).

3) Hong Kong Dividend Utility Stock – CK Infrastructure / CKI (HKEx: 1038)

Utilities sector has defensive business (eg. power or water supplies with fixed rates for several years), therefore able to generate consistent dividends, even during a bearish stock market.

CKI is under CKH (HKEX: 1), both are Hang Seng Index component stocks with major sponsor, Li Ka-shing, the richest person in Hong Kong. CKI also owns Power Assets (HKEx: 6) and Hong Kong Electric, as well as global utilities businesses, contributing to dividend yield of 4.7% (based on current share prices), a defensive stock popular among Hong Kong investors, especially with bearish stock market driven by ATM (Alibaba / Tencent / Meituan) and other technology stocks.

CKI is still at low Ein55 Optimism (<25%) but recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $80/share (about 60% potential upside in medium term). The stock is well balanced, suitable for dividend investing (Buy & Hold for dividend), growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains), cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High) and even trading when price is back to uptrend in short term.

CKI is an all-rounded stock but an investor or trader may need diversification over a portfolio of 10-20 giant stocks in 3 sectors of 3 countries, not to buy only 1 giant stock (concentration risk).

4) US Dividend Oil & Gas Stock – Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD)

Oil & Gas sector usually has cyclic business but commodity prices at higher optimism are supporting the giant stocks in oil & gas with stronger business. EPD is a special oil & gas stock with defensive business in midstream sector on delivery of crude oil and natural gas. The earnings and cashflows are stable as business based on future contracts, less sensitive to volatile oil & gas prices.

Russia-Ukraine war has pushed the commodity prices to new high while demand for delivery of oil & gas would be more. Even when one day oil price may fall to lower optimism, EPD could still generate passive incomes which dividend payment has been consistent over the past few decades, currently dividend yield is 6.9% (about 4.3% net dividend yield after over 38% withholding tax to US government).

EPD is under MLP business model which can maximize dividend without corporate level tax, paying dividend 4 times each year, behaving like a REIT (both are required to pay 90% incomes as dividends to shareholders).

EPD is still at moderate low Ein55 Optimism (<50%) but recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $30/share (about 30% potential upside in medium term). The stock is well balanced, suitable for dividend investing (Buy & Hold for dividend), growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains), cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High) and even trading when price is back to uptrend in short term.

EPD is an all-rounded stock but an investor or trader may need diversification over a portfolio of 10-20 giant stocks in 3 sectors of 3 countries, not to buy only 1 giant stock (concentration risk).

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Commodity Market, Fundamental Analysis, Macroeconomy, Market Optimism, Stock Market Tagged: bank stock, Charity Course, dividend stock, Hong Kong Market, oil & gas, US Stocks

4 Undervalue-Growth-Dividend Giant Stocks in Singapore and US (股海四宝)

Posted on December 15, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

It may be a dream for an investor to find an all-rounded stock with strong business fundamental and growing share prices with regular dividends as passive income (monthly / quarterly / half-yearly) for long term investing or short term trading. In this Dr Tee 2hr video education (4 Undervalue + Growth + Dividend Giant Stocks in Singapore and US), you will learn:

1) US and Singapore Stock Market Outlook
– Short term, medium term & long term

2) LOFTP Investing Strategies for Growth Investing and Momentum Trading
– Level Analysis (L1 Stock, L1 Sector, L3 Country, L4 World)
– Optimism Analysis (0-100%)
– Fundamental Analysis (Strong / Weak)
– Technical Analysis (Follow-trend / Counter-trend)
– Personal Analysis (Short Term Trading / Long Term Investing)

3) 4 US & Singapore Giant Stocks from 4 Promising Sectors with 3-in-1 strategies (Growth + Dividend + Undervalue)
– Singapore Giant Property Stock: Hongkong Land (SGX: H78)
– Singapore Giant F&B Stock: Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92)
– US Giant Oil & Gas Stock: Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP) – quarterly dividend payment
– US Giant REIT Stock: Realty Income (NYSE: O) – monthly dividend payment!

4) Long Term Growth Investing vs Short Term Trading Strategies
– Growth Investing (Buy Low & Hold, Long Term)
– Dividend Investing (Buy Low & Hold, Long Term)
– Undervalue / Cyclic Investing (Buy Low Sell High, Long Term)
– Short Term Trading (Buy Low Sell High, Buy High Sell Higher, Short Term)

5) Bonus: Discussions on 5 stocks during Q&A (only for those who view entire 2hr video)
– US Technology Stock: Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ: ZM)
– Malaysia / Singapore Glove Stock: Top Glove (SGX: BVA / Bursa: 7113)
– Singapore Insurance Stock: Great Eastern (SGX: G07)
– Singapore Transportation Stock: ComfortDelgro (SGX: C52)
– Singapore Dividend Stock: Vicom (SGX: WJP)

Here is Dr Tee Free 2-hr Video Course. Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks.

View Dr Tee Video Here (switch on FB sound before viewing):
https://www.facebook.com/ifastgm/videos/363185765575573

Past readers could have profited with over 50% rally in share price if have taken actions during pandemic on similar giant stocks. No one could change the past but you could still change the future if taking action to learn now!

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Trading Tagged: dividend stock, growth stock, reit, undervalue stock

Buy Low Hold Dividend with Global REITS (为善最乐)

Posted on November 16, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In recent 12^thEin55 Charity Course on Global REITs, we have raised fund of $24,000 to help needy families in Singapore. Under the spirit of charity, Dr Tee decides to share 3 Global Giant REITs with opportunities to Buy Low in 3 countries with readers (detailed strategies including Ein55 Optimism levels, Ein55 intrinsic values and Dividend Yield will be shared):

1) Singapore Giant REIT – Keppel DC REIT (SGX: AJBU)

2) Malaysia Giant REIT – Pavilion REIT / PAVREIT (Bursa: 5212)

3) Hong Kong / China Giant REIT – Link REIT (HKEx: 823)

Dr Tee, Ein55 Mentors & Graduates have together organized 12 charity investment courses (REITs in Nov 2015, May 2017, May 2019 and Nov 2021, High Dividend Stocks in Mar 2016, Oct 2017 and Nov 2019, Global Growth Stocks in Apr 2018 and Nov 2020, and Discounted NAV Stocks in Sep 2016, Nov 2018 and May 2021) in the past 6 years, donating net income of around $246,000 to Tzu Chi 慈济 Singapore.

We hope to inspire more Ein55 Graduates to reach out the society, helping others who are in need. More importantly, they have also learned the secrets of making money through investment. When more Ein55 Graduates are successful financially, they could also contribute back to the society to help more people in future.

Singapore and overseas REITs are popular investment for passive income through stable dividend stocks. By law, REITs have to redistribute 90% taxable income (from property rental income) back to shareholders in the form of dividend. Therefore, a retail investor could play the role of landlord of giant property (shopping malls, commercial buildings, hospitals, hotels, etc) with minimal capital (could be less than $1000), saving the hassle to buy/sell property (REIT manager would help), no need to deal with tenants or operations (property manager would help). Singapore REITs are exempted from corporate tax, therefore an Singapore investor could gain extra 1-2% rental or dividend yield compared with overseas REITs.

However, ordinary dividend investors (REIT / non-REIT) collect minimal passive incomes (eg. around 3-10% dividend yield) but long term growth may be limited (eg. Singtel (SGX: Z74) or SPH (SGX: T39)) and there could be high risk of capital loss with junk REIT (eg. Eagle Hospitality Trust (SGX: LIW) which has become bankrupt).

A smarter way of dividend investing is to wait patiently to Buy Low (low Ein55 Optimism during stock crisis) for a portfolio of 10 giant global REITs (or non-REIT dividend stocks) with reasonably strong business, waiting patiently (collecting consistent dividend during winter time of stock) for recovery of REIT with capital growth.

After the fear is fading, besides the minimal dividend yield (typically 3-10%), a smart dividend investor may choose to Sell High (cash out as opportunity fund to wait for next stock crisis to Buy Low again, especially for cyclic stocks including REITs) or hold long term for growth investing (for growth REIT), even possible for lifetime investing (selling one day only when need money or when it is no longer a giant stock based on Dr Tee criteria).

The best time to buy global giant REITs is always during global stock crisis (eg. Year 2020-2021 during pandemic, 2008—2009 during subprime crisis, etc), not only able to maximize the dividend yield (due to lower entry share price), also could have higher potential of capital gains (when market cycle moves from fear in low optimism to greed in high optimism). Global REITS investing is not based on dividend strategy (collect dividends as passive incomes) alone, may be integrated with cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High), growth investing (Buy Low & Hold), swing trading, momentum trading, defensive investing and other Ein55 strategies.

There are thousands of global REITS (started in US a few decades ago, extending to the world, become popular in Asia). However, not all the global REITs listed are giant stocks. A growing business or consistent dividend payment in the past may not be sustainable during COVID-19 period and a REIT may remain lagging in share prices for many years, could end up as a crisis stock. Fundamental Analysis alone is not sufficient, a low PB or low PE or high dividend yield stock may be a value trap as this may be the result of lower share price with weakening businesses. Therefore, deeper analysis is required with LOFTP (Level, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical, Personal Analysis) Strategies.

Let’s learn these 3 global giant REITs in 3 countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong), understanding the business nature, investment clock and unique strategy.

1) Singapore Giant REIT – Keppel DC REIT (SGX: AJBU)

In the internet era with more 5G applications, data usage will be enormous with explosive growth for next decade. So, Keppel DC Reit is positioned nicely to host data storage, collecting consistent growing rental as passive incomes. Keppel DC Reit has nearly 100% business in data center (recently extending to related business such as partnership with M1) while Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U) has about 1/3 businesses in this growing sector. Mapletree Industrial Trust is the largest Data Center REIT in Singapore but share price (near to fair value) currently is not as attractive as Keppel DC Reit, therefore not a focus in this article.

Over the past 5 years, Keppel DC Reit has experienced 3X in share prices from $1 to peak of $3 but the gains is not limited to share price appreciation. Its dividend is doubled every few years, therefore suitable to position as mid-fielder stock to have a balance of both growth (price appreciation) and dividend (passive income).

After reaching 100% Optimism level during peak of pandemic, Keppel DC Reit has experienced slower growth with sector rotation. The prices over the past 1 year has been bearish, declining by about 20%, falling to low optimism <25% currently, creating another rare opportunity for long term investor with dividend yield about 4%. However, due to bearish price trend, it is currently more suitable for contrarian investor who could apply Average Down strategy to minimize the risk of “Buy Low get lower”.

Therefore, similar to many other crisis giant stocks at low Ein55 Optimism level (eg. Top Glove (SGX: BVA / Bursa: 7113), Tencent (HKEX: 700) or Alibaba (HKEX: 9988 / NYSE: BABA)), an investor may need to “Wait” for “crisis” in prices (but strong in business) to Buy Low or entering in several batches, either Average Down or Average Up, eg. wait for next mini rally to Buy slightly Higher (only after uptrend is established for short term, eg when above $2.40-$2.50 resistance for Keppel DC Reit).

Due to defensive business nature of Keppel DC Reit, Ein55 intrinsic value is about $2.80, current price is only about 20% discount (despite low Ein55 Optimism level). It is more suitable for Buy Low and Hold Long Term, collecting 4% dividend yield (potentially doubled every few years). Keppel DC Reit has to grow bigger with more yield accretive acquisitions (eg. recent new REIT in Guangzhou of China) to sustain this high growth with many more global competitors (both demand and supply for data center increase at the same time).

2) Malaysia Giant REIT – Pavilion REIT / PAVREIT (Bursa: 5212)

PAVREIT is a young Malaysia Giant Reit, focusing in retail business. It has high concentration with 80% value in Pavilion KL Mall (second most expensive retail mall after KLCC (Bursa: 5235SS)), therefore business is affected during pandemic with lower property valuation and negative rental reversion.

Over the past 10 years, PAVREIT has doubled its share prices but behaving in a cyclical way, partly due to cyclical retail business and dynamic political economy (changes in regulations) in Malaysia. Its dividend is halved during pandemic, therefore more suitable for cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High) while holding minimal 3% dividend yield.

After reaching high Optimism level before pandemic, PAVREIT has experienced weaker earnings and cashflow, especially after a few yield dilutive acquisition of smaller malls (eg. Damen Mall). The prices over the past 1 year has been bearish, declining by about 30%, falling to low optimism <25% currently, creating good opportunity for medium term investor with dividend yield about 3%. However, it is more suitable for cyclic investor or trader to apply Buy Low Sell High strategy. Average up strategy (need to overcome $1.45-$1.50 resistance to establish short term bullish trend) may be integrated as dividend yield is lower with weaker business (worst of pandemic likely is over), may not suitable to buy for long term (unlike Keppel DC Reit which is possible to average down with strong business).

Due to medium term cyclical business nature of PAVREIT, Ein55 intrinsic value is about $1.70, current price is only about 20% discount (despite low Ein55 Optimism level). It is more suitable for Buy Low Sell High in medium term (a few years), collecting 3% dividend yield while waiting for pandemic recovery in Malaysia for additional capital gains. Political instability and weak economy in Malaysia are potential threats for Bursa stocks, including but not limited to PAVREIT.

3) Hong Kong / China Giant REIT – Link REIT (HKEx: 823)

Link REIT is the largest REIT in Hong Kong and Asia, about 2 times bigger than CICT (SGX: C38U) which is the largest Singapore REIT). It is also the 3^rd largest retail REIT in the world, after Simon Property (NYSE: SPG) and Realty Income (NYSE: O) of US REITs. Link REIT has 80% value in Hong Kong (retail malls and carparks), 20% overseas.

Over the past 10+ years, Link REIT has grown its share prices by 10 times to peak of about $99 before pandemic with support of high growth businesses mainly in Hong Kong. Its dividend is stable during pandemic but high growth is slower (eg. rental reversion is reduced from 20+% in the past to 10+% in recent years), therefore still suitable for growth investing (Buy Low & Hold) while holding 4% dividend yield (would increase over the years with more expansion beyond Hong Kong, especially in mainland China).

After reaching high Optimism level before pandemic, Link REIT has experienced slower growth, price was corrected significantly by about 40% from $99 to about $57. The share price over the past 1 year has gradually recovered from low optimism <25%, despite uncertain political economy (eg. tighter market regulations by China authority) with bearish Hong Kong stock market, creating a rare opportunity for long term investor with dividend yield about 4%.

Link REIT is the most flexible among 3 global REITs discussed in this article, possible to apply either Average Down strategy (similar to Keppel DC Reit with strong business) or Average Up strategy (good price trend in short term). Its potential short term risk (or opportunity) is the bearish Hong Kong stock market which could slowdown its price growth (but little impact on business growth), share prices supported above $70 is a nice balance to consider as common entry point for both long term investors and short term traders, although each may have different price targets for exits.

Due to major correction during pandemic, Ein55 intrinsic value is about $100, current price is about 30% discount (still at low Ein55 Optimism level). Link REIT is an all rounded REIT, may be considered for dividend investing (Buy Low & Hold for dividend growth), cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High), growth investing (Buy Low & Hold for capital gains) or even short term trading (Buy Low Sell high in short to medium terms). However, full mastery of each unique Ein55 investing or trading strategy is critical for ultimate success, especially on when to sell or how long to hold, not just on what to buy or when to buy.

=====================================

Readers may read earlier article by Dr Tee for more details on 100 Singapore Dividend Stocks (REIT / non-REIT):
https://www.ein55.com/2021/03/100-singapore-dividend-stocks-and-reits-for-retirement/

Not all global REITS are giant stocks, some could be junk stocks (eg. making losses or asking investors for reserved passive incomes through rights issues). Even for a giant stock, it requires at least yearly review with Dr Tee criteria to ensure it is still a giant stock or a change in strategy may be required (eg. crisis stock investing with Striker role if there is any potential high risk). Similarly, those stocks which are not highlighted in this article, some could be marginal giant stocks, may obtain the giant stock title one day, which worth longer term investing or trading.

Ideally, a smart investor should form a dream team stock portfolio (striker / mid-fielder / defender) with 10-20 giant stocks from over 3 sectors and 3 countries. REIT sector may contribute 1-2 stocks while it is important to diversify with more sectors (eg. Healthcare, Banking & Finance, F&B, Technology, Oil & Gas, Property / non-REIT, etc).

Since some REITs have overseas business, knowledge of Forex (eg. USD/SGD, SGD/HKD, SGD/MYR, etc) would be critical. A qualified REIT investor should also understand property market cycle, macroeconomy behavior, integrating with dividend investing or growth investing or cyclic / momentum trading.

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Value Investing Tagged: Charity Course, dividend stock, reit

Top 5 Factors of Global and Singapore REITs Investing (五星联珠)

Posted on August 20, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In this Dr Tee 1hr video education (Top 5 Factors of Global and Singapore REITs Investing), you will learn:
1) Singapore Stock Market Outlook
– Short term, medium term & long term

2) LOFTP Investing Strategies for REITs Investing
– Level Analysis (L1 Stock, L1 Sector, L3 Country, L4 World)
– Optimism Analysis (0-100%)
– Fundamental Analysis (Strong / Weak)
– Technical Analysis (Follow-trend / Counter-trend)
– Personal Analysis (Short Term Trading / Long Term Investing)

3) 4 Case Studies of Global and Singapore REITs Giant Stocks
– Singapore Giant Reit: CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, CICT (SGX: C38U)
– Singapore Giant Reit: Parkway Life REIT (SGX: C2PU)
– Hong Kong Giant Reit: Link REIT (HKEX: 823)
– US Giant Reit: Equity Lifestyle Properties (NYSE: ELS)

4) 4 REITS Investing Strategies
– Dividend Investing (Buy Low & Hold, Long Term)
– Growth Investing (Buy Low & Hold, Long Term)
– Cyclic Investing (Buy Low & Sell High, Mid / Long Term)
– Momentum Trading (Buy High Sell Higher, Short Term)

5) Q&A with Practical Demo on Global REITs
– Short term & medium term trend-following TA strategies on entry / exit
– Summary on actions in REITs investing

Here is Dr Tee Free 1-hr Video Course. Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks.

Dr Tee Video Course: https://youtu.be/3-5r03LsCPA

For readers who are interested to take actions in 42 Singapore REITs and 16 Business Trusts, may read earlier article by Dr Tee (published in June 2020, one of the best time to invest in REITs during pandemic stock crisis):
https://www.ein55.com/2020/06/42-singapore-reits-16-business-trusts/

Past readers could have profited with over 50% rally in share price if have taken actions during pandemic on similar giant REITs such as Parkway Life REIT, CICT and many others REITs. No one could change the past but you could still change the future if taking action to learn now!

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Ein55-Website-Post-Event-Register-Bursa.jpg

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: dividend stock, reit course, reit investing, Singapore REITs

3 Singapore Bank Stocks (DBS, OCBC, UOB) vs Signature Bank 3X Profits (无名小卒)

Posted on August 5, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Many readers have benefited from Dr Tee past 200 educational articles during pandemic, including making over 50% profits from 3 Singapore major bank stocks: DBS Bank, OCBC Bank and UOB Bank, which continue the strong momentum of prices with growing business.

However, the big money is usually with hidden giant stock (无名小卒), Dr Tee Graduates could see the opportunity 1 year ago in Signature Bank (NASDAQ: SBNY) with 3X potential profits gained so far, outperforming 50% rally of 3 Singapore major bank stocks.

Let’s learn further from Dr Tee on the journey of successes for these 4 giant bank stocks, including how to position in other remaining Top 100 global giant bank stocks. A review of latest financial reports, stock prices, Ein55 intrinsic values and Optimism levels will be given.

With pandemic recovery over the last 1 year, 3 Singapore major bank stocks, DBS Bank (SGX: D05), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39) and UOB Bank (SGX: U11) have recovered both in share prices (50% rally from lower optimism levels to about fair values of mid optimism currently) and also businesses, since Q2/2020 circuit breaker period.

In the recent interim financial reports of H1/2021, all 3 Singapore giant bank stocks continue to report better earnings than the 6-12 months ago, partly due to growing businesses and lower allowance for NPL (Non-Performing Loans), supported by strong Singapore GDP growth (14.3% in Q2/2021), aligned with rapid global economy recovery (US GDP growth by 6.5% in Q2/2021).

Despite lower interest rate income due to lower NIM (Net Interest Margin), overall bank sector businesses (including investment, wealth management, credit card, insurance, etc) are profitable. Despite US treasury bond yield is getting lower over the past few months with less pressure on bank interest rate hike, global bank stocks still have positive outlook because of non-interest rate income is growing more rapidly. Higher global inflation rates may also accelerate the pace of central banks of major economies to increase interest rates which will be favorable to giant bank stocks.

From the table below, we may observe that 3 Singapore major bank stocks have comparable results, all are suitable as mid-fielders for both capital gains and passive incomes (dividend). In fact, they contribute to about 30% of Singapore STI Index, therefore the price trends are generally aligned with STI which is near to fair value of mid optimism level.

4 Giant Bank Stocks	ROE (%)	DY (%)	PB
DBS Bank (SGX: D05)	8.6	2.8	1.5
OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)	7.2	2.5	1.2
UOB Bank (SGX: U11)	6.9	2.9	1.2
Signature Bank (NASDAQ: SBNY)	9.0	0.9	1.9

As expected, MAS recently announced to waive the 60% dividend payment cap of 3 Singapore major bank stocks, implying the potential of dividend yield in FY2021 could be increased by 100/60 = 67%, from current 2.5-3% to 4-5%. This is partially confirmed by recent announcement of interim dividends, back to FY2019 level before pandemic, likely will be higher for next 6 months if higher earnings by end of 2021 as usually 50% earnings (DBS and UOB) will be paid as dividend while OCBC is about 45% dividend payout ratio (more reserves for growth).

This confirmation by MAS is an important news for long term investors who aim for passive incomes, despite the best time to invest in these 3 banks stocks was in the worst time of pandemic during Q2-Q3/2020, eg. OCBC at about $8+/share while DBS and UOB below $20/share, shared by Dr Tee over the past 1 year of free public webinars (www.ein55.com) and articles, action takers could enjoy fruits of 6-7% dividend yield now, on top of over 50% capital gains over the past 1 year of pandemic recovery. This is much better than “safe” investment of keeping money as cash in banks for 0.3% interest rate or even Singapore Savings Bond of 0.5% return for the first year.

Currently, Singapore STI and 3 Singapore bank stocks are showing mid bullish trend but not strong enough for traders. A key trading signal is breakout of 3200 points resistance of STI, requiring support of other 27 STI component stocks. Traditionally, Aug is month for Ex-dividend date of many STI component stocks, therefore if Aug could achieve a monthly positive gain for STI, is a strong signal for DBS Bank, OCBC Bank and UOB Bank.

===================================

Many investors like to invest in bank stocks with BIG names but big size or most famous stock may not always be the best, eg. Hong Kong largest bank, HSBC Bank (HKEX: 0005) is a weak bank stock. Even an investor may run of idea of What to Buy, may refer to earlier Dr Tee article on Top 100 Bank Stocks in the world:

https://www.ein55.com/2021/03/top-100-singapore-and-global-bank-stocks-to-profit/

Both 3 Singapore major banks and Signature Bank (#76 in the long list) are listed as Top 100 Bank stocks. If bank stock interested by reader is not listed, may need to do more in-depth analysis before investing. Signature Bank is comparable in size with 3 Singapore banks but still considered small relative to big names in wall street, therefore gaining little attention from global investors who probably know more about JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) or even weaker bank stocks such as Citi Group (NYSE: C).

Signature Bank is a commercial bank with business mainly in state of New York (USA) and a few other states. So, it is relatively not known to global investors, few Asian investors may know how to invest in this hidden giant stock. Despite the businesses are strong with consistent growth over the past decade, after share prices reaching high Ein55 Optimism level of about $140 in Year 2017, starting to correct to lower optimism, reaching low optimism level of around $70/share during 2020 pandemic, which is 50% discount in share price but value becomes higher each year. The best “crisis” stock is when value is doubled but price is halved but few people could bridge between fundamental and technical worlds which needs more insights.

Dr Tee assigned Signature Bank as homework to Ein55 graduates during Aug 2020, possible to enter initially with contrarian investing (average down will falling in share prices) when share price less than $90 or with average up above $100 after the breakout from double bottom (see optimism chart of Signature Bank) or trend-following momentum trading from $100+ to $200+ in a few months. Even for long term investor (Buy & Hold), Signature Bank has grown over 12 times in share prices over the past 2 decades but it requires strong control of emotions, especially to hold through global financial crisis with significant price correction.

In Jan 2021 Ein55 Graduates Gathering Webinar, Dr Tee shared this giant stock again, despite at around $140, the stock continues to surge till high Ein55 Optimism of $255/share, potential 2 to 3 times profits for those who could Buy at Low Optimism (below $100) and Sell at High Optimism (about above $200). In July 2021 Ein55 Gathering Webinar, Dr Tee has shared another healthcare giant stock which has surged over 20% in 1 month since then (will be reported in future).

There is little “luck” in stock investment, each of the fruit of investment is action taking by readers who could take calculated risks, applying strategy aligning with own personality. A real trader and investor has to take further action: Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait or Shorting with independent thinking. Without action taking, a reader is only a ‘knowledge collector”, knowing why or how but could not generate any profit.

Many investors know the secret of making money is Buy Low Sell High but if purely based on price action (i.e. Technical Analysis), the probability of success may not be high, especially Buy Low may Get Lower. Success in Signature Bank requires integration of Ein55 styles of investing, especially with LOFTP Strategies: Level, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical and Personal Analysis, sharing regularly in hundreds of Dr Tee educational articles in the past decade.

Unlike 3 Singapore major banks, Signature Bank is more suitable for cyclic investing (then become momentum trading) with support by strong growing businesses. Since the current share prices have reached high optimism level with sideways share prices, potential traders may need to wait for stronger signal or consider other Top 100 global bank stocks in earlier list, some still have over 50% upside potential of share prices.

Bank stocks are cyclical in nature, therefore the best time to invest in a giant bank stock is usually during the recovery phase from global or regional financial crisis. Even an investor may miss the last 1 year of pandemic stock crisis to Buy Low Sell Fair Price, not to miss the next few years with opportunity for giant bank stocks moving from fair prices to greedy prices at high optimism levels. After that, the next Black Swan would wait to reset the global stock market again with a new Global Financial Crisis, usually over 50% discount in stock indices. Instead of waiting for sky to fall down one day (wasting the opportunity cost of time which could be several years), a more practical approach is to apply trend-following strategy to ride the uptrend of global giant stocks during bullish stock market.

There are many other global giant stocks prepared to surge with pandemic recovery, are you ready to become their business partners as a stock investor?

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: bank stock, dbs bank, dividend stock, growth stock, US Stocks

70% Profits of Healthcare Giant Stock – Q&M Dental (苦尽甘来)

Posted on June 30, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Over the past 1 year of pandemic, Dr Tee has shared with Ein55 graduates, forum readers and public webinars audience on this giant healthcare stock, Q&M Dental Group (SGX: QC7) with at least 3 articles and multiple comments regularly, witnessing surging of share prices from low Ein55 Optimism of $0.40+ share price to breaking above $0.50+/share resistance, predicting the fair value with Ein55 Intrinsic Value of $0.70/share, today is already $0.80/share (about 70% to 100% profits if an investor could buy & hold for over 1 year), moving towards next target of greedy price of high Ein55 Optimism at about $1/share.

Let’s learn from Dr Tee on this journey of making money and how to take action from now, assuming today is the first time you read Dr Tee educational article on global giant stocks.

Since Year 2015, Q&M Dental has been declining in share prices, mainly due to slower business growth (still profitable) and bearish market sentiment with little knowledge of this largest dental service provider in Singapore which also has dental clinics in Malaysia and China. Over the past 6 years, the share price has dropped from peak of about $0.90/share to about low of $0.35 during pandemic. For a giant stock, how it falls down (by 3 times) would imply how it may recover one day with similar scale (assuming by 3 times would be $0.35/share x 3, to about $1/share, aligning with Ein55 Optimism at high level).

Q&M Dental suffered in business temporarily in first half of pandemic but recovering quickly after Circuit Breaker was over as few people could resist tooth pains for months. Q&M Dental subsidiary, Acumen Research Lab is an HPB authorized COVID19 test service provider, providing fuel for share prices to grow with additional future earnings.

Some Ein55 graduates even invested below $0.40 – $0.50/share with contrarian dividend strategy during the worst time of pandemic. Dividend yield can be 10% with 4.3 cents/share dividend over the past 1 year if one could invest at $0.43 share price which was common in Year 2020. At current price of $0.80, beyond Ein55 Intrinsic Value of about $0.70, the dividend yield is moderate at 4%, comparable with Singapore REITs, therefore still a dividend giant stock. The gain so far with this strategy (Buy at low Ein55 Optimism of about $0.40) is about 2 times or 100% profits, able to hold as understanding Q&M Dental has economic moat, even under worst time of pandemic. Next few years would be the harvest time to enjoy the fruits, an investor has option to Sell High (following Ein55 Optimism). Due to cyclical nature of this giant stock, Buy Low Sell High strategy is more suitable than Buy Low & Hold very long term (usually for growth investing) unless the business fundamental of Q&M Dental is growing more consistently in future.

For a giant stock, regardless short term trading (price action with trend-following strategies), medium term trading (Buy Low Sell High) or long term investing (Buy Low & Hold for both dividend and price growth), all could make money, but need to take one of the actions. If there is no action, a reader always feel regret or sour feeling when reading successes of other investors, despite Q&M Dental was shared by Dr Tee before in at least 3 articles as a highly potential giant stock:

Dr Tee Article 1 posted on 24 Apr 2020 (Q&M price = $0.52)

https://www.ein55.com/2020/04/healthcare-giant-stock-qm-dental/

Dr Tee Article 2 posted on 4 Sep 2020 (Q&M price = $0.46)

https://www.ein55.com/2020/09/11-singapore-healthcare-covid-19-stocks/

Dr Tee Article 3 posted on 31 May 2021 (Q&M price = $0.68)
https://www.ein55.com/2021/05/seasonality-effect-with-ex-dividend-months-on-singapore-stock-market-2009-2021/

Another related sibling Singapore healthcare giant stock to take note is Raffles Medical Group (SGX: BSL), usually share price correlation is about 2X of Q&M which is already $0.80, implying minimum potential of Raffles Medical is about $0.80 x2 = $1.60 (currently at $1.18, still moderate low optimism, having more potential than Q&M Dental currently). For Ein55 graduates who have mastered 55 Ein55 investing styles, would know the actual potential of Raffles Medical. Don’t regret again if Dr Tee may share on this giant stock next time.

Most people regret of missing an opportunity, did not know that they don’t miss it at all, even reading today here (eg. applying short term momentum trading on Q&M Dental to Buy High Sell Highe). The key is to confirm whether it is a giant stock, then next step is to apply the right LOFTP (Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) strategy on short term trading and / or long term investing based on current market condition, aligning with own unique personality.

There are many other global giant stocks prepared to surge with pandemic recovery, are you ready to become their business partners as a stock investor?

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Optimism, Stock Market, Value Investing Tagged: dividend stock, Healthcare Stocks

2 Free eBooks by Dr Tee (Click to Download)