Short Selling Strategies for Bearish Stock Market (反败为胜)

Posted on October 18, 2022 Written by

Over the past 6 months, the Fed starts to increase interest rate drastically to suppress the high inflation rates over 8%. As a result, global stock markets experienced second round of stock crisis since Mar 2020 (pandemic crisis) with over 20%-50% major correction in most stocks, especially technology stocks in US Nasdaq and Hong Kong.

Current global economy is still relatively strong but any black swan (eg. Russian-Ukraine war escalated to higher level, crash in property / bond / commodity /forex markets, political instability with major economy, new COVID variants, etc) may drag it into global financial crisis.

Instead of worrying about uncertain markets, a trend-following trader may leverage on market fear to potentially profit from falling stock prices with short-selling. As for smart investors, there is option to hedge against the declining portfolio value of long term position with inverse ETFs, especially for those who are not familiar with short-selling.

Crisis could be Opportunities if an investor or trader knows how to apply short-selling strategies during bearish stock market. Let’s learn further from Dr Tee on how to take action in current stock markets with shorting strategies:

1) Short Selling Strategies

It is more common to short sell a stock with CFD (Contract for Difference), making profit with falling of the prices over a period of time.  Since the global stock market (especially indices for major economies) are growing in long term, therefore it is more suitable to consider shorting with short term strategy.

Since business fundamental has less changes in short term (eg. a few weeks or a few months), main focus for shorting is on Technical Analysis (TA) of share prices with consideration of Level Analysis (eg. L2 sector and L3 country performances)

Here are 2 main considerations:

1.1) Technical Analysis

In contrary to normal long position (Buy & Hold), shorting has higher probability in a bearish stock market with declining prices (eg. dropping over 10-20% in a few months). A trader may focus on stocks which show consistent trend of “lower lows and lower highs” of share prices, initiating shorting position when the price pattern below certain support (eg. neckline of double top, support of a price channel, etc) or recording a new intermediate low over the past few weeks / months (price just falls below the support).

Most experienced traders apply CFD for short selling with margins. Since it involves leveraging, it is possible a trader to lose more than initial capital, especially if there is no risk management such as stop loss. Therefore, it is critical to apply S.E.T. (Stop Loss / Entry / Take Profit) in a trading plan. Position size is also important to limit the potential loss within comfortable level before aiming for higher return with CFD leveraging.

For example, after shorting is initiated, a trader needs to set a higher price as stop loss (shorting is reversed strategy, making money with falling prices, making loss with rising prices), eg. if entry with price below the support, then stop loss is naturally when there is a false breakout (price is returned above the support).  Each trader may have unique risk tolerance level, eg 5-10%, and difference profits target, with / without leveraging.  When shorting selling is successful (price falling as expected), a trader may apply a trailing stop (eg. moving average, MACD and other common TA indicator), cover the shorting position (closing the shorting position) when there is a reversal signal with rising prices, taking profits at this stage while waiting for the next opportunity to short again.

Short term trading, especially short selling with CFD, requires strong commitment to trading plan, removing emotions due to volatile daily prices. Intra-day trading is more speculative as any unexpected daily news may cause a surge in daily prices.  Ideally, short term trading requires consideration of price in a few weeks to a few months.

1.2) Level Analysis

Level Analysis is mainly to align individual stock (Level 1) with sector (Level 2) or country indices (Level 3) to maximize the strength of price trends.  For example, when market leaders such as S&P 500 Index or Nasdaq Index (Level 3) records a new lower price over the past 6-12 months with bearish TA trends, if sector (Level 2, eg Technology Sector – XLR) also follows, then probability for Level 1 technology stocks (eg. FANG / software / semi-conductor and related stocks) to fall will be higher.  The quality of shorting would be higher after such Levels 1-2-3 alignment.

Therefore, when indices are recovering (eg. reversed from bear to bull) one day, it would be more risky to short at a stock which may be still bearish.  The consideration is similar to long a stock (Level 1, less than 10% stocks could still be bullish currently) while the indices (Level 3) are bearish, probability of success will be lower.

2) Inversed ETFs

For retail traders who are less familiar with short selling or CFD, may consider inversed ETFs, which would grow in prices (as if long strategy) with falling of indices. The application is limited to major Levels 2-3 indices (eg. certain sector and country indices ETF), very few on individual stocks (except for popular stocks such as Apple, Tesla, etc).

Even for investors who hold on to current stock portfolio, may apply inverse ETF as a hedging tool to limit or stop the losses in a bearish stop market. If Level 2-3 indices falling trends are aligned to long term position of Level 1 stocks, an investor may apply a suitable inverse ETF to hedge against the bearish stock market to limit the losses of holding to current stock portfolio (if not selling).

For inverse ETF, there is option of 1X, 2X, 3X reverse return, eg. when Nasdaq falls by 1%, SQQQ would go up by 3X = 3%.  This indirectly includes CFD leveraging into inverse ETF, allowing higher volatility (higher potential return with higher risk).

Here is a list of common inverse ETFs, sorted by fund size (SQQQ is the most popular):

https://etfdb.com/etfs/inverse/equity/

Here are some common ProShares Short ETFs:

PSQ     (-1X Nasdaq Index)

SQQQ (-3X Nasdaq Index)

SH       (-1X S&P 500 Index)

SPXU  (-3X S&P 500 Index)

DOG   (-1X Dow Jones Index)

SDOW (-3X Dow Jones Index)

YXI     (-1X China A50 Index)

It is relatively safer to apply inverse ETF than CFD for short selling because a retail investor could apply normal long strategy (eg. Buy Low Sell High, Buy High Sell Higher) which is more natural.  In addition, the loss of inverse ETF is limited to capital invested (assuming no stop loss is applied). However, inverse ETF has lack of choices, trends of Level 2-3 indices may not fully aligned with Level 1 individual stocks interested (which would be more suitable with CFD).

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Shorting is mainly reversed strategy (aiming for lower prices) of usual long strategy (aiming for higher prices), riding the bearish share prices, breaking each critical support to start the shorting. It may be against the personalities of some investors, therefore it is possible to “Wait”, no need to “Short” during a bear market.

The global stock market continues to monitor the CPI (Consumer Price Index) or inflation, which likely to fall further over the next few months due to higher base for comparison 1 year ago (CPI is yearly economic data) unless there is another unexpected market surprises (eg. Russia stopping the supply of natural gas to Europe during the cold winter, US/China trade war escalated to the next level, etc).

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There are over 2000 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar, you could ask on any global and local stocks including but not limited to 30 STI component stocks:

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

View quick preview video below, Dr Tee will introduce 10 key stock investment strategies (股票投资十招) to be learned in 4hr free stock webinar:

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar):  www.ein55.com

Dr Tee Stock Webinar
Filed Under: Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Trading Tagged: , , ,

4 Undervalue-Growth-Dividend Giant Stocks in Singapore and US (股海四宝)

Posted on December 15, 2021 Written by

It may be a dream for an investor to find an all-rounded stock with strong business fundamental and growing share prices with regular dividends as passive income (monthly / quarterly / half-yearly) for long term investing or short term trading. In this Dr Tee 2hr video education (4 Undervalue + Growth + Dividend Giant Stocks in Singapore and US), you will learn:

1) US and Singapore Stock Market Outlook
– Short term, medium term & long term

2) LOFTP Investing Strategies for Growth Investing and Momentum Trading
– Level Analysis (L1 Stock, L1 Sector, L3 Country, L4 World)
– Optimism Analysis (0-100%)
– Fundamental Analysis (Strong / Weak)
– Technical Analysis (Follow-trend / Counter-trend)
– Personal Analysis (Short Term Trading / Long Term Investing)

3) 4 US & Singapore Giant Stocks from 4 Promising Sectors with 3-in-1 strategies (Growth + Dividend + Undervalue)
– Singapore Giant Property Stock: Hongkong Land (SGX: H78)
– Singapore Giant F&B Stock: Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92)
– US Giant Oil & Gas Stock: Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP) – quarterly dividend payment
– US Giant REIT Stock: Realty Income (NYSE: O) – monthly dividend payment!

4) Long Term Growth Investing vs Short Term Trading Strategies
– Growth Investing (Buy Low & Hold, Long Term)
– Dividend Investing (Buy Low & Hold, Long Term)
– Undervalue / Cyclic Investing (Buy Low Sell High, Long Term)
– Short Term Trading (Buy Low Sell High, Buy High Sell Higher, Short Term)

5) Bonus: Discussions on 5 stocks during Q&A (only for those who view entire 2hr video)
– US Technology Stock: Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ: ZM)
– Malaysia / Singapore Glove Stock: Top Glove (SGX: BVA / Bursa: 7113)
– Singapore Insurance Stock: Great Eastern (SGX: G07)
– Singapore Transportation Stock: ComfortDelgro (SGX: C52)
– Singapore Dividend Stock: Vicom (SGX: WJP)

Here is Dr Tee Free 2-hr Video Course. Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks.

View Dr Tee Video Here (switch on FB sound before viewing):
https://www.facebook.com/ifastgm/videos/363185765575573

Past readers could have profited with over 50% rally in share price if have taken actions during pandemic on similar giant stocks. No one could change the past but you could still change the future if taking action to learn now!

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There are over 2000 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar, you could ask on any global and local stocks including but not limited to 30 STI component stocks:

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

View quick preview video below, Dr Tee will introduce 10 key stock investment strategies (股票投资十招) to be learned in 4hr free stock webinar:

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar):  www.ein55.com

Dr Tee Stock Webinar
Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Trading Tagged: , , ,

Integration of Long Term Growth Investing and Short Term Momentum Trading Strategies

Posted on September 13, 2021 Written by

In this Dr Tee 2hr video education (Integration of Long Term Growth Investing and Short Term Momentum Trading Strategies), interactive webinar hosted by IFAST Global Markets, you will learn:

1) Global Stock Market Outlook
– US and Singapore (Views in Long Term, Medium Term and Short Term)
– Hong Kong / China (“Common Prosperity”, HK technology stocks correction)

2) Impact of Political Economy on Global Stock Markets
– Macroeconomy factors such as interest rate hike, QE (>US$2 Trillions) activation and tapering, etc.

3) Integration of Long Term Growth Investing and Short Term Momentum Trading Strategies
– LOFTP: Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis

4) Giant Stocks (Long Term Investing vs Short Term Trading) for 4 Growing Sectors
– Finance Sector Giant Stock
– Technology Giant Stock
– Consumer Discretionary Stock
– Healthcare Giant Stock

5) Q&A with Live Zoom Audience

Here is Dr Tee Free 2-hr Video Education. Enjoy and give your comments for improvement.

View Dr Tee Video Here (switch on sound before viewing):
https://www.facebook.com/ifastgm/videos/6780231118669132/

===================================

There are over 2000 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar, you could ask on any global and local stocks including but not limited to 30 STI component stocks:

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

View quick preview video below, Dr Tee will introduce 10 key stock investment strategies (股票投资十招) to be learned in 4hr free stock webinar:

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar):  www.ein55.com

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Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Stock Market, Trading Tagged: , , ,

Stock Market Updates with Bank Stocks and REITs

Posted on July 31, 2020 Written by
Dr Tee Stock Investment Webinar

Global stock markets (S&P500, STI, KLCI, HSI, SSEC, etc) have been bumpy over the past few months. US Covid-19 condition is still critical, affecting the confidence of V-shape recovery of stock market, as well as the coming US presidential election in Nov 2020. Some investors worry of possible double dip, dare not take any action now. Crisis is always opportunity but an investor has to apply the right stock investing strategy.

At the same time, Singapore stock market is lagging, major bank stocks, DBS Bank (SGX: D05), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11) are under correction after MAS guidelines to cap the dividend payment of banks to 60% of last year (implying if dividend yield is 6%, would become 6×0.6 = 3.6%), disappointing many passive income investors. However, the impact is temporary, earnings of banks won’t be affected (stability is enhanced with more cash in reserve), the shareholders money are kept within the company first. Bank stocks are cyclic in nature, alignment with market cycle is crucial to maximize the potential gain.

This is similar to REITs withhold some dividends in Q1-Q2 / 2020 to preserve cash during the uncertain pandemic period, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Frasers Centrepoint Trust (SGX: J69U), etc. Strong REIT such as First Reit (SGX: AW9U) has fallen to about 1/3 of peak share with price-to-book ratio nearly at 50% discount, mainly due to rental relief to tenant who is also weak sponsor (Lippo Karawaci) which may cut future dividend by half (new agreements with Rupiah exchange rate depreciating by 50%). Crisis is a good time to collect giant dividend stocks but certain risks should not be overlooked.

There are 30 STI index component stocks including most of giant stocks mentioned above (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

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Dr Tee has been very busy since Phase 2 is started, conducting many investment courses, therefore not able to update as frequent as last time (about 200 articles written during past 5 months of Covid-19 pandemic: www.ein55.com/blog)

I start to conduct some online courses which are proven to be effective, especially some students are still not comfortable to meet-up during pandemic. Personally I prefer meet-up workshop as it is more interactive in learning. However, I start to master different ways to engage the students in webinar setting.

This is the first time, 4hr bonus investment course by Dr Tee is conducted through Webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom), a rare opportunity to learn remotely, profiting from Covid-19 stock crisis.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar.

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

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Filed Under: Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Trading Tagged: , , ,

42 Singapore REITs & 16 Business Trusts (稳如泰山)

Posted on June 5, 2020 Written by
Singapore REITs, Business Trusts, Dividend Stocks

Singapore REITs are popular investment for passive income through stable dividend stocks. In this article, you will learn on how to invest in 21 giant stocks from 42 Singapore REITs and 16 Business Trusts with 3 key strategies (Striker / Mid-fielder / Defender) in 8 categories:

1) Retail REITs

2) Office REITs

3) Industrial REITs

4) Healthcare REITs

5) Diversified REITs

6) Data Center REIT

7) Hospitality REIT

8) Business Trusts

There are 6 Singapore REITs which are also Business Trusts, so total there are 42 + 16 – 6 = 52 Singapore REITs and Business Trusts as of current stock market. Currently, out of 30 STI Index stocks, 5 are REITs. Soon, SPH (SGX: T39) with declining trading market capitalization (lower share price and/or lower trading volume) will be replaced by Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U) as 6th REIT of STI.  CapitaMall Trust (SGX: C38U) will be merged with CapitaCom Trust (SGX: C61U) to form new CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) Reit, therefore free up 1 seat in 30 STI. In near future, 5 reserve list of STI are all REITs or Business Trust:

Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Suntec Reit (SGX: T82U), NetLink NBN Trust (SGX: CJLU), Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust (SGX: BUOU) and Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U).

It implies at least 10 out of future 30 STI components would be from REITs and Business Trust. Future STI ETF (SGX: ES3)/(SGX: G3B) would be a more defensive investing tool, more dividend income but growth could be limited due to nature of Singapore REITs.

Diversification through REITs ETF (SGX: FSTAS8670) may not be a good strategy as not all stocks selected by index or fund manager are considered giant REITs (based on Dr Tee criteria) and systematic risk such as global financial crisis could potentially correct the REITs prices by more than 50% (eg. 70% price drop in 2008-2009 subprime crisis and about 40% correction in 2020 Covid-19 crisis) if an investor simply buys and hold for long term.

By law, REITs have to redistribute 90% taxable income (from property rental income) back to shareholders in the form of dividend. Therefore, a retail investor could play the role of landlord of giant property (shopping malls, commercial buildings, hospitals, hotels, etc) with minimal capital (could be less than $1000), saving the hassle to buy/sell property (REIT manager would help), no need to deal with tenants or operations (property manager would help).  Singapore REITs are exempted from corporate tax, therefore an Singapore investor could gain extra 1-2% rental or dividend yield compared with overseas REITs.

Business Trust is not limited to property rental, could be any form of business and even a company has good track record of dividend payment, it is not a legal obligation to do pay dividend in future, especially when there is a potential business crisis (eg. Covid-19) which needs more cash reserve. Therefore, from the perspective of a dividend stock investor, Singapore REITs are more preferred than Business Trusts for passive income generation.

However, a REIT investor has to buy the right REIT which could grow in rental business (most important action), aligning own personality with 3 possible strategies:

1) Striker – trading or crisis investing (Buy Low Sell High), mainly for capital gains

2) Mid-fielder – medium term investing, mainly for capital gains (dividend income as bonus)

3) Defender – long term investing, mainly for dividend income (capital gains as bonus)

After confirming a REIT / Business Trust is a giant, then investor has to master the investment clock (When to Buy / Sell), depending on type of REITs.  The best time to invest in a defensive REIT is usually during global stock crisis (with condition that the rental business is not significantly affected) which could maximize both the dividend yield and also higher upside for capital gains.

Below are all the 52 Singapore REITs and Business Trusts based on the last price traded (4 June 2020), sorted by type of REITs with details of 3 key strategies (Striker / Mid-fielder / Defender) and 3 critical Fundamental Criteria:
1) ROE (a basic criteria for REIT, eg. ROE > 0% to ensure business not losing money),
2) Dividend Yield, DY (a criteria for dividend stocks, eg. DY > 3 – 5%, depending on strategy),
3) Price-to-Book (PB) ratio, Price/NAV (a bonus for REIT is undervalue, eg. PB < 1).

NoTickerROEDividend Yield (%)PB = Price /NAVTypeStrategy
1BHG Retail Reit (SGX: BMGU)11.46.40.7Retail 
2CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U)9.05.71.0RetailDefender
3CapitaLand Retail China Trust (SGX: AU8U)8.87.30.9RetailDefender
4Frasers Centrepoint Trust (SGX: J69U)8.34.71.2RetailDefender
5Lippo Malls Trust (SGX: D5IU)-0.715.40.7Retail 
6Sasseur Reit (SGX: CRPU)11.88.40.8Retail 
7SPH REIT (SGX: SK6U)6.15.90.9Retail 
8Starhill Global Reit (SGX: P40U)3.48.20.6RetailDefender
9United Hampshire US Reit (SGX: ODBU)4.1–0.789Retail 
10CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U)6.05.01.0OfficeDefender
11Elite Commercial REIT GBP (SGX: MXNU)––1.2Office 
12IREIT Global (SGX: UD1U)19.47.70.9OfficeMid-fielder
13Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT (SGX: CMOU)9.38.40.9Office 
14Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U)2.64.80.9OfficeDefender
15ManulifeReit USD (SGX: BTOU)3.87.21.0OfficeMid-fielder
16OUE Commercial Reit (SGX: TS0U)3.58.00.7Office 
17Prime US ReitUSD (SGX: OXMU)4.13.51.0Office 
18AIMS APAC Reit (SGX: O5RU)9.07.60.9Industrial 
19ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust (SGX: K2LU)-2.19.81.0Industrial 
20Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U)7.44.41.5IndustrialDefender
21EC World Reit (SGX: BWCU)9.58.40.8Industrial 
22ESR-REIT (SGX: J91U)-0.19.71.0Industrial 
23Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U)10.34.61.6IndustrialMid-fielder
24Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U)8.24.21.5IndustrialDefender
25Sabana Reit (SGX: M1GU)3.57.80.7Industrial 
26ARA Hospitality Trust USD (SGX: XZL)2.210.10.5Hospitality 
27Ascott Trust (SGX: HMN)5.17.20.8HospitalityStriker
28CDL Hospitality Trust (SGX: J85)6.18.20.7HospitalityStriker
29Eagle Hospitality Trust USD (SGX: LIW)18.225.30.2Hospitality 
30Far East Hospitality Trust (SGX: Q5T)3.67.20.6Hospitality 
31Frasers Hospitality Trust (SGX: ACV)3.48.90.7Hospitalit 
32First Reit (SGX: AW9U)5.712.10.7HealthcareStriker
33ParkwayLife Reit (SGX: C2PU)10.43.81.8HealthcareMid-fielder
34Cromwell Reit EUR (SGX: CNNU)8.38.90.9Diversified 
35Cromwell Reit SGD (SGX: CSFU)8.38.50.9Diversified 
36Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU)9.83.91.9DiversifiedMid-fielder
37Lendlease Reit (SGX: JYEU)––0.9Diversified 
38Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU)9.43.81.2DiversifiedMid-fielder
39Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (SGX: RW0U)2.67.70.7DiversifiedDefender
40Soilbuild Business Space Reit (SGX: SV3U)4.010.20.7Diversified 
41Suntec Reit (SGX: T82U)6.56.00.7Diversified 
42Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU)5.73.12.2Data CenterMid-fielder
43Accordia Golf Trust (SGX: ADQU)-17.06.40.8Business Trust 
44Ascendas India Trust (SGX: CY6U)18.24.61.3Business TrustDefender
45Asian Pay Tv Trust (SGX: S7OU)1.87.40.2Business Trust 
46Dasin Retail Trust (SGX: CEDU)-1.98.20.6Business Trust 
47FSL Trust (SGX: D8DU)5.029.30.5Business Trust 
48HPH Trust SGD (SGX: P7VU)2.011.90.3Business Trust 
49HPH Trust USD (SGX: NS8U)2.012.60.3Business Trust 
50Keppel Infrastructure Trust (SGX: A7RU)2.97.02.1Business Trust 
51NetLink NBN Trust (SGX: CJLU)2.75.01.4Business TrustMid-fielder
52RHT HealthTrust (SGX: RF1U)–145.50.9Business Trust 

The risk (and also opportunity) of REITs are cyclic stock prices, therefore each global stock crisis could be good opportunity to Buy Low for giant Defender REITs, maximizing dividend yields with multiple entries if diversification is needed during uncertain Global Financial Crisis. For Mid-fielder stocks, alignment with price trends are important for trading (momentum and cyclic / swing trading).  Covid-19 pandemic would disrupt the stable distribution of rental income for some REITs (eg. Retail, Office, Industrial, Hospitality) with reduced or delayed dividend for 6-12 months but it has less impact on longer term investors who could hold longer than 1 year.

We may group 52 Singapore REITs and Business Trusts in the following 8 categories with 21 selected giant stocks in 3 main roles (Striker / Mid-fielder / Defender).

1) Retail REITs

There are 9 Retail REITs listed in Singapore (some with overseas business, eg. in China, Hong Kong and US):

BHG Retail Reit (SGX: BMGU), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Retail China Trust (SGX: AU8U), Frasers Centrepoint Trust (SGX: J69U), Lippo Malls Trust (SGX: D5IU), Sasseur Reit (SGX: CRPU), SPHREIT (SGX: SK6U), Starhill Global Reit (SGX: P40U), United Hampshire US Reit (SGX: ODBU).

Retail REITs are usually cyclic in nature, tenants occupancy rate and rental rate mainly follow economic cycles and strength of local economy. 4 Giant Retail REITs are good choices as Defenders to collect dividend income: CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Retail China (SGX: AU8U), Frasers Centrepoint Trust (SGX: J69U), Starhill Global Reit (SGX: P40U).

2) Office REITs

There are 8 Office or Commercial REITs listed in Singapore (some with overseas business, eg. in US, UK and Europe):

CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Elite Commercial REIT (SGX: MXNU), IREIT Global (SGX: UD1U), Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT (SGX: CMOU), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), Manulife Reit (SGX: BTOU), OUE Commercial Reit (SGX: TS0U), Prime US Reit (SGX: OXMU).

Office REITs are usually cyclic in nature, tenants occupancy rate and rental rate mainly follow economic cycles and strength of local economy. 4 Giant Office REITs are good choices, 2 as Defenders to collect dividend income: CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U) and Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U) and 2 as Mid-fielders (both capital gains and dividend income in medium term trading): Manulife Reit (SGX: BTOU) and IREIT Global (SGX: UD1U).

3) Industrial REITs

There are 8 Industrial REITs listed in Singapore (some with overseas business, eg. in China and Asia Pacific):

AIMS APAC Reit (SGX: O5RU), ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust (SGX: K2LU), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), EC World Reit (SGX: BWCU), ESR-REIT (SGX: J91U), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Sabana Reit (SGX: M1GU).

Industrial REITs are usually cyclic in nature, tenants occupancy rate and rental rate mainly follow economic cycles and strength of local economy. 3 Giant Industrial REITs are good choices, 2 as Defenders to collect dividend income: Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U) and Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U) and 1 as Mid-fielder (both capital gains and dividend income in medium term): Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U).

4) Healthcare REITs

There are only 2 Healthcare REITs listed in Singapore (with local and overseas business, eg. in Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, Japan and), both are giant stocks:

First Reit (SGX: AW9U) as striker and ParkwayLife Reit (SGX: C2PU) as Mid-fielder.

Healthcare REITs are usually more defensive in rental business due to very long term agreement signed with tenants (hospitals which need stability in operation). First Reit used to be a Mid-fielder with strong growth but investors confidence are affected with bearish outlook of sponsor, Lippo Group, therefore new role as a Striker could be more suitable for crisis stock investing. Parkwaylife REIT is much more stable with support of strong sponsor, IHH Healthcare (SGX: Q0F) but dividend yield is limited, therefore more suitable as a Mid-fielder.

5) Diversified REITs

There are 8 Diversified REITs listed in Singapore (some with overseas business, eg. in China, Asia Pacific and Europe):

Cromwell Reit EUR (SGX: CNNU) / Cromwell Reit SGD (SGX: CSFU), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), Lendlease Reit (SGX: JYEU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (SGX: RW0U), Soilbuild Business Space REIT (SGX: SV3U), Suntec Reit (SGX: T82U).

Diversified REITs have different types of REITs within the REIT portfolio (eg. Office / industrial / retail, some are integrated of smaller REITs, eg. Frasers REITs, through Merging & Acquisition), therefore usually cyclic in nature, tenants occupancy rate and rental rate mainly follow economic cycles and strength of local economy. 3 Giant Industrial REITs are good choices, 1 as defender to collect dividend income: Mapletree NAC Trust (SGX: RW0U) and 2 as Mid-fielders (both capital gains and dividend income in medium term): Frasers L&C Trust (SGX: BUOU) and Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU.

6) Data Center REIT

There is only 1 Data Center REIT in Singapore (with business locally and globally), also a Mid-fielder Giant Stock: Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU).

Technically, Mapletree Industrial Trust, MIT (SGX: ME8U) has partial business in Data Center as MIT has 40% ownership (another 60% by parent company, Mapletree Investment) of Mapletree Redwood Data Centre Trust (MRDCT) which has 14 data centers in US since 2017. So far, Mapletree group (Temasek as sponsor) has 4 REITs listed sequentially over the past decade. So, there is no surprise if MRDCT may be listed in future when business is more stable one day. Currently, an investor may invest indirectly through MIT, which is an Industrial REIT including partial business in Data Centers.

Data Center REITs are usually more defensive due to longer term agreement signed with tenants (could be local government and big companies with confidential customer identities due to sensitive nature of database) which may view stability and security as more important factors than cost of rental. With popularity in internet (driven further by 5G) and tremendous growth in database required globally, demand for data centers at safer locations / countries would be increasing.  Both Keppel DC Reit and MIT are younger REITs, more suitable to position as Mid-fielders, aiming mainly for capital gains (dividend is only a bonus), may evolve into growth investing in future.

7) Hospitality REIT

There are 6 Hospitality REITs (some with business overseas, eg. global hotels chain) which also have Business Trust to form Stapled Securities due to requirement of business model:

ARA Hospitality Trust USD (SGX: XZL), Ascott Trust (SGX: HMN), CDL Hospitality Trust (SGX: J85), Eagle Hospitality Trust USD (SGX: LIW), Far East Hospitality Trust (SGX: Q5T), Frasers Hospitality Trust (SGX: ACV)

Hospitality REITs are mostly considered as crisis sector (especially for hotel / resort business) due to Covid-19 pandemic, few international visitors during this period. Without strong sponsor, a REIT could be in trouble. Eagle HTrust is a good example, stock is suspended after less than 1 year of IPO (about 80% capital loss for a stock investor), with big losses in business, default of loan and additional sell down during Covid-19 crisis as last straw which breaks the camel’s back. Usually for a young IPO stock without stable business record, there is always a risk that business may not be sustainable. So, a proven REIT with higher price could be more valuable than a young REIT with lower price.

2 Giant Hospitality REITs may be considered, both as Strikers (crisis investing stocks) as they are supported by strong sponsors despite weak business during Covid-19: Ascott Trust (SGX: HMN) is supported by CapitaLand (SGX: C31), while CDL HTrust (SGX: J85) is supported by City Development (SGX: C09). An investor may need to wait for quarterly or semi-annual financial report to understand the real impact of Covid-19 during Q1-Q2/2020 on Hospitality REITs. There are other non-crisis REITs (or limited impact of Covid-19) which an investor may consider, there is no need to take risk on Striker stocks if it goes against the personality of investors who may aim for defensive investing with stable dividend income.

8) Business Trusts

There are 10 pure Business Trusts listed in Singapore which dividend payments are not protected by law:

Accordia Golf Trust (SGX: ADQU), Ascendas India Trust (SGX: CY6U), Asian Pay Tv Trust (SGX: S7OU), Dasin Retail Trust (SGX: CEDU), FSL Trust (SGX: D8DU), HPH Trust SGD (SGX: P7VU), HPH Trust USD (SGX: NS8U), Keppel Infrastructure Trust (SGX: A7RU), NetLink NBN Trust (SGX: CJLU), RHT Health Trust (SGX: RF1U).

There are a few weak Business Trusts with very high dividend yield which are potential value traps, eg. FSL Trust (29% dividend yield). Dividend yield is always computed based on past dividend record and a high number could be derived due to weak business with very bearish share price. Buy Low may not able to Sell High for a junk stock as share prices would become lower. So, high dividend yield has to combine with a giant dividend stock or giant REIT (either Mid-fielder or Defender strategy), following Dr Tee criteria.

2 Giant Business Trusts with strong sponsors may be considered: Ascendas India Trust (SGX: CY6U) as a Defender (property trust in India) is supported by CapitaLand (SGX: C31), while NetLink NBN Trust (SGX: CJLU) as a Mid-fielder is supported by Singtel (SGX: Z74). Ascendas-iTrust is still property related, therefore even it is a Business Trust, asset quality is high. However for NetLink Trust, it is based on owner and operator of Singapore Fiber Network (prices regulated by authority, a form of monopoly) which technology may evolve in future, eg, towards 5G. So, close review of future technology and monitoring of financial performance are required. Therefore, young technology Business Trust of NetLink Trust, is more suitable for role as a Mid-fielder.

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There are 140 Property Stocks in Singapore excluding 52 REITs and Business Trusts (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
3Cnergy (SGX: 502), A-Smart (SGX: BQC), AEI^ (SGX: AWG), AIMS Property (SGX: BVP), APAC Realty (SGX: CLN), Abterra (SGX: L5I), Acromec (SGX: 43F), Amara (SGX: A34), Amcorp Global (SGX: S9B), AnnAik (SGX: A52), Astaka (SGX: 42S), BBR (SGX: KJ5), BRC Asia (SGX: BEC), BlackGoldNatural (SGX: 41H), Boldtek (SGX: 5VI), Bonvests (SGX: B28), Boustead (SGX: F9D), Boustead Projects (SGX: AVM), Bukit Sembawang (SGX: B61), Bund Center (SGX: BTE), CSC (SGX: C06), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Casa (SGX: C04), Chemical Industries (SGX: C05), China Great Land (SGX: D50), China International (SGX: BEH), China Real Estate (SGX: 5RA), China Yuanbang (SGX: BCD), Chip Eng Seng (SGX: C29), City Development (SGX: C09), DISA (SGX: 532), Debao Property (SGX: BTF), ETC Singapore (SGX: 1C0), Edition (SGX: 5HG), EnGro Corporation (SGX: S44), Fraser and Neave F&N (SGX: F99), Far East Orchard (SGX: O10), Figtree (SGX: 5F4), First Sponsor (SGX: ADN), Fragrance (SGX: F31), Frasers Property (SGX: TQ5), GYP Properties (SGX: AWS), Gallant Venture (SGX: 5IG), Golden Energy (SGX: AUE), Goodland (SGX: 5PC), GuocoLand (SGX: F17), HL Global Enterprises (SGX: AVX), Hatten Land (SGX: PH0), Heeton (SGX: 5DP), Hiap Hoe (SGX: 5JK), Hiap Seng (SGX: 510), Ho Bee Land (SGX: H13), Hock Lian Seng (SGX: J2T), Hong Fok (SGX: H30), Hong Lai Huat (SGX: CTO), Hong Leong Asia (SGX: H22), Hongkong Land USD (SGX: H78), Hor Kew (SGX: BBP), Huationg Global (SGX: 41B), Hwa Hong (SGX: H19), IPC Corp (SGX: AZA), ISOTeam (SGX: 5WF), Imperium Crown (SGX: 5HT), Jasper Investments (SGX: FQ7), KOP (SGX: 5I1), KSH (SGX: ER0), Keong Hong (SGX: 5TT), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), King Wan (SGX: 554), Koh Brothers (SGX: K75), Koon (SGX: 5DL), Kori (SGX: 5VC), LHN (SGX: 41O), Ley Choon (SGX: Q0X), Lian Beng (SGX: L03), Low Keng Huat (SGX: F1E), Lum Chang (SGX: L19), MMP Resources (SGX: F3V), MYP (SGX: F86), Metro (SGX: M01), OIO (SGX: KUX), OKH Global (SGX: S3N), OKP (SGX: 5CF), OneApex (SGX: 5SY), Oxley (SGX: 5UX), PSL (SGX: BLL), Pacific Century (SGX: P15), Pacific Star Development (SGX: 1C5), Pan Hong (SGX: P36), Pavillon (SGX: 596), Perennial Holdings (SGX: 40S), Pollux Properties (SGX: 5AE), PropNex (SGX: OYY), Raffles Infrastructure (SGX: LUY), Regal International (SGX: UV1), Renaissance United (SGX: I11), Rich Capital (SGX: 5G4), Roxy-Pacific (SGX: E8Z), Ryobi Kiso (SGX: BDN), SHS (SGX: 566), SLB Development (SGX: 1J0), SP Corporation (SGX: AWE), Sasseur Reit (SGX: CRPU), Second Chance (SGX: 528), Sin Heng Mach (SGX: BKA), Sinarmas Land (SGX: A26), SingHaiyi (SGX: 5H0), SingHoldings (SGX: 5IC), Singapore-eDev (SGX: 40V), Sinjia Land (SGX: 5HH), Soilbuild Construction Group (SGX: S7P), Starland (SGX: 5UA), Straits Trading (SGX: S20), Swee Hong (SGX: QF6), Sysma (SGX: 5UO), TA (SGX: PA3), TTJ (SGX: K1Q), Tai Sin Electric (SGX: 500), Thakral (SGX: AWI), Thomson Medical Group (SGX: A50), Tiong Seng (SGX: BFI), Top Global (SGX: BHO), Tosei (SGX: S2D), Transcorp (SGX: T19), Tritech (SGX: 5G9), UIC (SGX: U06), UOA (SGX: EH5), UOL (SGX: U14), USP Group (SGX: BRS), Vibrant Group (SGX: BIP), Wee Hur (SGX: E3B), Wing Tai (SGX: W05), Yanlord Land (SGX: Z25), Yeo Hiap Seng (SGX: Y03), Ying Li International (SGX: 5DM), Yoma Strategic (SGX: Z59), Yongmao (SGX: BKX), Yongnam (SGX: AXB), Yorkshine (SGX: MR8).

Not all Singapore REITs or Business Trusts are giant stocks, some could be junk stocks (eg. making losses or asking investors for reserved passive incomes through rights issues). Even for a giant stock, it requires at least yearly review with Dr Tee criteria to ensure it is still a giant stock or a change in strategy may be required (eg. crisis stock investing with Striker role if there is any potential high risk). Similarly, those stocks which are not highlighted in this article, some could be marginal giant stocks, may obtain the giant stock title one day, which worth longer term investing or trading.

Although there are 21 giant REITs and Business Trusts listed in this article (3 roles of Striker / Mid-fielder / Defender), not all stocks are suitable for everyone. A REIT investor has to further select the right type of giant stock to align with own personality to be successful in short trading, medium term investing or long term investing, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy / Sell.

Ideally, a smart investor should form a dream team stock portfolio (striker / mid-fielder / defender) with 10-20 giant stocks from over 3 sectors and 3 countries.  REIT sector may contribute 1-2 stocks while it is important to diversify with more sectors (eg. Healthcare, Banking & Finance, F&B, Technology, Oil & Gas, Property / non-REIT, etc).

Since some REITs have overseas business, knowledge of Forex (eg. USD/SGD, SGD/IDR, etc) would be critical.  A qualified REIT investor should also understand property market cycle, macroeconomy behavior, integrating with dividend investing or growth investing or cyclic / momentum trading.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

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8 Glove Stocks & 6 Sectors Profit in COVID-19 (易如反掌)

Posted on June 1, 2020 Written by
Crisis glove stocks Top Glove Hartalega Kossan Supermax Riverstone Covid-19

In this article, you will learn 8 glove manufacturer stocks in Singapore and Malaysia and 6 other sectors which could profit from Covid-19 crisis, each requiring unique stock strategies for investing or trading.

1) Top Glove (SGX: BVA) / (Bursa: 7113) – Singapore / Malaysia Giant Glove Stock

2) Hartalega (Bursa: 5168) – Malaysia Giant Glove Stock

3) Kossan (Bursa: 7153) – Malaysia Giant Glove Stock

4) SuperMax (Bursa: 7106) – Malaysia Giant Glove Stock

5) Riverstone (SGX: AP4) – Singapore Giant Glove Stock

6) Comfort Gloves (Bursa: 2127) – Malaysia Glove Stock

7) Careplus (Bursa: 0163) – Malaysia Glove Stock

8) Rubberex (Bursa: 7803) – Malaysia Glove Stock

Crisis is opportunity for stock investing, especially true for glove manufacturers during Covid-19 crisis as demand for gloves are surging. In the past 1 decade, glove stocks are in the best time of era, strong growing business supported by 4 main factors:

1) Growing economy – higher manufacturing needs, especially glove is consumable (cheap but frequently used / replaced), recurring income.

2) Pandemic – higher healthcare needs, including Covid-19, H1N1 and other virus outbreaks.

3) Lower cost – especially for latex glove as rubber price has been low optimism due to bearish global commodity market. Thailand and Malaysia are rubber main producers, supplying to factories of these glove manufacturers within the same countries, saving more cost.

4) Stronger USD – forex becomes advantage for glove manufacturers as local expenses are mostly paid in ringgit but customers are based from overseas (world), therefore collecting payment (incomes) in USD which is stronger relative to ringgit. Of course, this advantage may become a weakness in future when USD becomes weaker.

Fundamentally, Covid-19 crisis helps to improve the business of these glove stocks, Q1/2020 financial results are even stronger than previous year. A strong fundamental business when encounter high demand due to market greed (which may be due to fear), the share price could be speculated higher.

Strong Fundamental + Market Greed = Positive Speculation

[Higher Sales + Stronger (USD/MYR) – Lower Cost] + Higher Greed (Pandemic Fear) = Higher Share Price

Indeed, all of these 8 glove stocks have surged more than 2 times in share prices over the past few months of Covid-19 pandemic. However, the current prices are at high optimism, mainly suitable for very short term momentum trading (Buy High Sell Higher). 

Top Glove (listed in both Singapore and Malaysia), Hartalega, Kossan and SuperMax are considered the Big Four of glove manufacturers in Malaysia, all are giant stocks (based on Dr Tee criteria), will be discussed in further.  Riverstone is a smaller player (listed in Singapore) but having strong business fundamental, will have more comments as well later. As for other 3 glove stocks (Comfort Gloves, Careplus, Rubberex) which are smaller in size, only have stronger business over the past 5 years (likely due to leftover demand, competing with lower prices or niche market), mainly suitable for short term trading, not a giant stock.

So, we will elaborate here mainly on 5 giant glove stocks (Top Glove, Hartalega, Kossan, SuperMax, Riverstone) which may be considered for both longer term investing (when correcting below a fair price with holding power) and short term trading (following S.E.T. trading rule – Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices).

1) Top Glove (SGX: BVA) / (Bursa: 7113) – Singapore / Malaysia Giant Glove Stock

Top Glove is the world’s largest rubber glove manufacturer with many types of latex and nitrile gloves from manufacturing facilities in Malaysia, Thailand and China. Founder and major shareholder is Lim Wee Chai (27% ownership), also the No 14 richest person in Malaysia (Forbes’ List), supported mainly by rising share prices over the 2 past decades (share price goes up over 500 times since IPO till now). Top Glove has become 1 of 30 KLCI component stock, showing its business strength.

Top Glove has dual listing in Malaysia Bursa (longer history) and Singapore SGX. The relative stock performance are aligned but due to different group of investors, short term share price in SGX (BVA) is even more bullish than in Bursa (7113). Fundamentally, each share (SGX or Bursa) is the same but short term share price may not be due to difference of forex (SGD/MYR) alone.

Top Glove is a strong growth stock (supported by growing businesses with strong cash flow) but highly leveraged (high debt) to expand its capability further, strengthening its position as world’s largest glove manufacturer. Scale of economy is also a form of economic moat, position as bigger player could help to lower down the unit cost, therefore increase the profit margin.

Due to high optimism in share price, Top Glove may be considered as a mid-fielder stock (aiming for high capital gains with little dividend yield as bonus). It may also be considered for very short term momentum trading despite share price is speculated (Buy High Sell Higher strategy).

2) Hartalega (Bursa: 5168) – Malaysia Giant Glove Stock

Hartalega is the world’s largest nitrile glove manufacturer. Founder and major shareholder is Kuan Kam Hon (about 50% ownership with family), also the No 9 richest person in Malaysia (Forbes’ List), supported mainly by rising share prices over the past decade (share price goes up nearly 100 times since IPO till now). Hartalega has become 1 of 30 KLCI component stock, showing its business strength.

Hartalega main product of nitrile glove has higher profit margin compared to latex (rubber) glove. However, this profitable product segment also attracts many competitors, therefore the high growth of Hartalega is getting slower, now is more aligned (sustainable rate) with other major competitors, sharing the big pie of glove industries.

Hartalega is a strong growth stock (supported by growing businesses with strong cash flow) with lower debt level (having potential to expand further with more leveraging if needed). Scale of economy is also a form of economic moat, position as bigger player (nitrile glove) could help to lower down the unit cost, therefore increase the profit margin.

Due to high optimism in share price, Hartalega may be considered as a mid-fielder stock (aiming for high capital gains with little dividend yield as bonus). It may also be considered for very short term momentum trading despite share price is speculated (Buy High Sell Higher strategy).

3) Kossan (Bursa: 7153) – Malaysia Giant Glove Stock

Kossan is the world’s second largest glove manufacturer (technical rubber products, medical gloves, cleanroom products, etc). Founder and major shareholder is Lim Kuang Sia (about 50% ownership), was in 2017 Forbes’ List for Malaysia No 30 richest person, supported mainly by rising share prices over the past 2 decades (share price goes up about 60 times since IPO till now).

Kossan is a strong growth stock (supported by growing businesses with strong cash flow), performance is comparable with the main competitor, Top Glove. Kossan has moderate debt level, having potential to expand further with more leveraging if needed. The glove industry is big enough for major players to share the big global pie of growing demand for gloves in manufacturing and healthcare sectors.

Due to moderate high optimism in share price (compared to other 4 giant glove stocks at high optimism), Kossan has more upside potential, may be considered as a mid-fielder stock (aiming for high capital gains). It may also be considered for very short term momentum trading despite share price is speculated (Buy High Sell Higher strategy).

4) SuperMax (Bursa: 7106) – Malaysia Giant Glove Stock

SuperMax is a leading medical / latex gloves manufacturer. Founder and major shareholder is Thai Kim Sim (about 40% ownership together with wife) who was charged with insider trading in Year 2017. However, this negative news does not stop investors from supporting SuperMax, share price goes up about 60 times over the past 2 decades. During Covid-19 pandemic, SuperMax share price is the most bullish among 5 giant stocks, surging over 5 times in a few months time.

Among 5 giant glove stocks, SuperMax has relatively weaker business (but still a giant stock), earning has been declining despite growing revenue, indicating weaker profit margin which is not comparable with other competitors. Due to very high optimism in share price, SuperMax is more speculative in short term. For longer term investing, other 4 giant stocks are relatively safer for consideration. 

5) Riverstone (SGX: AP4) – Singapore Giant Glove Stock

Among 5 giant glove stocks, Riverstone is the smallest player but it has its niche market. Riverstone manufactures cleanroom glove (eg. hard disk drive and semiconductor) and healthcare gloves. Founder and major shareholder is Wong Teek Son (about 50% ownership), also the No 44 richest person in Malaysia (Forbes’ List), supported mainly by rising share prices over the past decade (share price goes up nearly 20 times since IPO till now).

Riverstone is a Malaysia company but stock is listed in Singapore, therefore the share price potential is also partially affected by Singapore stock market. Choice of stock exchange for listing does not affect the company fundamental (same share ownership) but due to different characteristic of global investors in each stock exchange (eg. US, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia), etc, would make a big difference in share prices which is the ultimate goal for a company to be listed.  As a result, certain stock exchange is more popular of IPO stocks but may not be fundamentally strong.  So, a stock investor has to consider a stock or even stock exchange, aligning with own personality and strategy, either on long term investing or short term trading.

Riverstone is a strong growth stock (supported by growing businesses with strong cash flow), a small player with potential to expand further with more leveraging if needed (current debt level is very low). A giant stock is not determined by its business size, if Riverstone could remain highly profitable within its niche market (also a form of economic moat), it can be a good stock investment.

Due to high optimism in share price, Riverstone may be considered as a mid-fielder stock (aiming for high capital gains with little dividend yield as bonus). It may also be considered for very short term momentum trading despite share price is speculated (Buy High Sell Higher strategy).

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Top Glove and Riverstone are not 30 STI index component stocks but they are much stronger than most of these blue chip stocks in Singapore (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

Some investors may be envy of owners of these 5 giant stocks which most founders are Top 50 richest persons in Malaysia. In fact, the easiest way to get very rich may not be through a business. Rather, it is through stock market with a growing business to support the rising share prices which could be over 10-100 times in wealth after IPO (易如反掌). This is the reason why for successful businesses, most of the founders plan to list the stock at certain point of time.

Since all 5 glove giant stocks are mostly controlled (over 50% shares ownership) by founders and families, a key consideration for long term investing is on succession plan to either second generation or capable professionals. A smart retail stock investor has to review a giant stock yearly or even quarterly to ensure it is still a giant stock before continuing the long term support. A sector may not be bullish all the time, including glove industry as profitable business usually would attract many potential competitors which would reduce the profit margins with lower price, lower sales or higher cost.

Here is a list of 30 Malaysia Bursa KLCI Index component stocks which may be considered (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
CIMB (Bursa: 1023) CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BERHAD, DIALOG (Bursa: 7277) DIALOG GROUP BERHAD, DIGI (Bursa: 6947) DIGI.COM BERHAD, GENM (Bursa: 4715) GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD, GENTING (Bursa: 3182) GENTING BERHAD, HAPSENG (Bursa: 3034) HAP SENG CONSOLIDATED BERHAD, HARTA (Bursa: 5168) HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BERHAD, HLBANK (Bursa: 5819) HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD, HLFG (Bursa: 1082) HONG LEONG FINANCIAL GROUP BERHAD, IHH (Bursa: 5225) IHH HEALTHCARE BERHAD, IOICORP (1961) IOI CORPORATION BERHAD, KLCC (Bursa: 5235SS) KLCC PROPERTY HOLDINGS BERHAD, KLK (Bursa: 2445) KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BERHAD, MAXIS (Bursa: 6012) MAXIS BERHAD, MAYBANK (Bursa: 1155) MALAYAN BANKING BERHAD, MISC (Bursa: 3816) MISC BERHAD, NESTLE (Bursa: 4707) NESTLE MALAYSIA BERHAD, PBBANK (Bursa: 1295) PUBLIC BANK BERHAD, PCHEM (Bursa: 5183) PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BERHAD, PETDAG (Bursa: 5681) PETRONAS DAGANGAN BHD, PETGAS (Bursa: 6033) PETRONAS GAS BERHAD, PMETAL (Bursa: 8869) PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDINGS BERHAD, PPB (Bursa: 4065) PPB GROUP BERHAD, RHBBANK (Bursa: 1066) RHB BANK BERHAD, SIME (Bursa: 4197) SIME DARBY BERHAD, SIMEPLT (Bursa: 5285) SIME DARBY PLANTATION BERHAD, TENAGA (Bursa: 5347) TENAGA NASIONAL BHD, TM (Bursa: 4863) TELEKOM MALAYSIA BERHAD, TOPGLOV (Bursa: 7113) TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.

Covid-19 could be a crisis for most sectors but there are still few sectors could remain profitable or having less impact than overall economy. Besides glove stocks, there are 6 other sectors which may be considered for stock investing during pandemic:

1) Supermarket stocks – eg. Sheng Siong (SGX: OV8), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Costco (NASDAQ: COST). etc. NTUC Fairprice is not publicly listed but it has limited private shares for members of NTUC Fairprice, paying about 6% yearly dividend yield. Those supermarket stocks with online business would have more advantages during pandemic.

2) Telco / 5G stocks – eg. Singtel (SGX: Z74), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Xiaomi (HKEx: 1810), AT&T (NYSE: T), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), etc.

3) Semiconductor / Technology stocks – eg. Micro-mechanics (SGX: 5DD), UMS Holdings (SGX: 558), AEM (SGX: AWX), Frencken (SGX: E28), TSMC (NYSE: TSM), Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), AMD (NASDAQ: AMD), Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM), Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO), etc.

4) Online / Software stocks – eg. BAT-FAANG stocks: Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU), Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) / (HKEx: 9988), Tencent (HKEx: 0700), Facebook (NASDAQ: FB), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), Google / Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), etc.

5) Healthcare stocks – eg. 3M (NYSE: MMM), Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD), Raffles Medical Group (SGX: BSL), Q&M Dental Group (SGX: QC7), IHH Healthcare (SGX: Q0F), etc.

6) Stock Index ETF or stocks – eg. stronger defenders of major stock indices (STI, KLCI, DJI, S&P 500, MSCI, etc). STI ETF (SGX: ES3) / (SGX: G3B) or STI index component stocks with stronger businesses: DBS Bank (SGX: D05), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX, C38U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), etc.

A stock investor may study Q1-Q2 / 2020 financial reports to compare the global giant stocks relatively to understand impact of Covid-19 for 3 group of stocks during pandemic with 3 unique stock strategies:

1) Profitable stocks – trading at higher prices with momentum trading (similar to glove stocks, Buy High Sell Higher strategy).

2) Defensive stocks – stable business with some price correction, collecting higher dividend yield or gradual growth in share prices (Buy Low and Hold strategy).

3) Crisis stocks – business disrupted by Covid-19 but no major risk (eg. bankruptcy), buying at low optimism price with cyclic investing or trading (Buy Low Sell High strategy).

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

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5 Singapore Semiconductor 5G Stocks (力争上游)

Posted on May 27, 2020 Written by
Semiconductor 5G stocks, AEM, UMS, Frencken, Micro-Mechanics, Avi-Tech Electronics, Telco

In this article, you will learn 5 Singapore semiconductor supplier stocks which could benefit from emerging 5G technology, requiring 5 different stock strategies for investing or trading.

1) Micro-Mechanics Holdings (SGX: 5DD) – Singapore Semiconductor Giant Stock

2) UMS Holdings (SGX: 558) – Singapore Semiconductor Giant Stock

3) AEM Holdings (SGX: AWX) – Singapore Semiconductor Stock

4) Frencken Group (SGX: E28) – Singapore Semiconductor Stock

5) Avi-Tech Electronics (SGX: BKY) – Singapore Semiconductor Stock

Over the past few decades, semiconductor sector is driven mainly by telecommunication (eg. smart phones and related products) and consumer electronics (eg. PC, portable devices, etc). Telco sector introduces new Generation of technology about every 10 years (1980s = 1G with analog voice, 1990s = 2G with digital voice, 2000s = 3G with mobile data, 2010s = 4G with mobile broadband, 2020s = 5G with much faster system to maximize Internet of Things – IoT). Current development of 5G, would help to support growth in global semiconductor value chain over the next decade.

Semiconductor (front-end / back-end) technology development milestones are driven by Moore’s Law which predicted IC capacity or density would double itself about every 18 months.  So, telco technology Generation of every 10 years is related to Moore’s Law 2X cycle of every 18 months (1.5 year):

Telco / Semiconductor = (10 / 1.5) = 6.67 times of doubling

So, telco capacity in every Generation of 10 years = 2^(6.67) = 102 times difference. Indeed, 5G technology speed and capacity is about 100X faster or more than current 4G technology, supported by Moore’s Law (力争上游).

Gordon Moore only did a rough extrapolation of future technology a few decades ago. However, it serves as a roadmap for smart scientists to challenge the technology limit at each junction, motivating giant semiconductor and telco companies to invest billions of dollars in R&D to achieve these goals which Moore’s Law is still valid today.

Unique technology knowhow (could be in the form of technical patents or trade secrets with amazing powerful new products) is a strong economic moat for a technology company, especially with a stock.  Every good news in leadership in new technology (eg. from 4G to 5G, from 7nm to 5nm semiconductor technology, etc) would help to grow the share prices. In fact, the semiconductor or telco company investor earn much more from stock market than from the actual business.  The business is simply a driver (if positive growing results) to drive the stock prices. So, it is important for a stock investor to differentiate among business investment (pure fundamental), stock investment (long term) and stock trading (short term).

There are several ways to invest in 5G related companies, for example through major mobile phone manufacturers (eg. Apple – NASDAQ: AAPL, Xiaomi – HKEx: 1810, etc), global and local Telco companies (eg. AT&T – NYSE: T, Singtel – SGX: Z74, etc), leading semiconductor companies (eg. TSMC – NYSE: TSM, Intel – NASDAQ: INTC, AMD – NASDAQ: AMD, Nvidia – NASDAQ: NVDA, Qualcomm – NASDAQ: QCOM, etc) or other related supplier businesses.

There are 53 Electronics stocks and 28 IT stocks, total 81 Technology Stocks in Singapore which have connections with semiconductor industry:

AEM Holdings (SGX: AWX), Accrelist Limited (SGX: QZG), Acma Limited (SGX: AYV), Adventus Holdings (SGX: 5EF), Allied Technologies Limited (SGX: A13), Amplefield Limited (SGX: AOF), Avi Tech Electronics (SGX: BKY), Ban Leong Technologies (SGX: B26), CDW Holding (SGX: BXE), CFM Holdings (SGX: 5EB), CPH Limited (SGX: 539), Chuan Hup Holdings (SGX: C33), Creative Technology (SGX: C76), Datapulse Technology (SGX: BKW), Dragon Group International (SGX: MT1), Dutech Holdings (SGX: CZ4), Ellipsiz Limited (SGX: BIX), Excelpoint Technology (SGX: BDF), Frencken Group (SGX: E28), Global Invacom Group (SGX: QS9), GP Industries (SGX: G20), Global Testing Corporation (SGX: AYN), Grand Venture Technology (SGX: JLB), HGH Holdings (SGX: 5GZ), Hu An Cable Holdings (SGX: KI3), JEP Holdings (SGX: 1J4), Jadason Enterprises (SGX: J03), Karin Technology Holdings (SGX: K29), Libra Group (SGX: 5TR), Manufacturing Integration Technology (SGX: M11), Maruwa Yen1k (SGX: M12), MeGroup Limited (SGX: SJY), Micro-Mechanics Holdings (SGX: 5DD), Plastoform Holdings (SGX: AYD), Polaris Limited (SGX: 5BI), Powermatic Data Systems  (SGX: BCY), Renaissance United (SGX: I11), SEVAK Limited (SGX: BAI), SUTL Enterprise (SGX: BHU), Serial System (SGX: S69), Shinvest Holding (SGX: BJW), Sunright Limited (SGX: S71), Sunrise Shares Holdings (SGX: 581), TT International (SGX: T09), Thakral Corporation (SGX: AWI), The Place Holdings (SGX: E27), Trek 2000 International (SGX: 5AB), Valuetronics Holdings (SGX: BN2), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Willas-Array Electronics Holdings (SGX: BDR), World Precision Machinery (SGX: B49), Alpha Energy Holdings (SGX: 5TS), Alset International (SGX: 40V), Artivision Technologies (SGX: 5NK), Asiatravel.com Holdings (SGX: 5AM), A-Smart Holdings (SGX: BQC), Azeus Systems Holdings (SGX: BBW), Boustead Singapore Limited (SGX: F9D), Captii (SGX: AWV), Challenger Technologies (SGX: 573), CSE Global (SGX: 544), DISA (SGX: 532), International Press Softcom (SGX: 571), ISDN Holdings (SGX: I07), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Koyo International (SGX: 5OC), M Development (SGX: N14), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), New Silkroutes Group (SGX: BMT), New Wave Holdings (SGX: 5FX), PEC (SGX: IX2), Plato Capital (SGX: YYN), Procurri Corporation (SGX: BVQ), Rich Capital Holdings (SGX: 5G4), Silverlake Axis (SGX: 5CP), SinoCloud Group (SGX: 5EK), Stratech Group (SGX: BRR), Synagie Corp (SGX: V2Y), YuuZoo Networks Group Corp (SGX: AFC).

Global and local semiconductor stocks are mostly cyclic in nature, following the economic cycles (affecting consumer’s demand with purchasing power, usually stronger business during bullish economy). US NASDAQ stock exchange has many technology stocks, including semiconductor sector, therefore its stock index also behaves in cyclical way, suitable with “Buy Low Sell High” Optimism Strategy.  Few technology stocks could be the leader for long term (a few decades) due to the competitive technology development (including possible mastering of knowhow by competitors with time or by chance). Therefore, a smart investor needs to monitor a technology stock (could be semiconductor, telco, etc), ensuring it is a giant stock (applying Dr Tee criteria) each year before continuing long term investing, otherwise safer to position only in short term or medium term trading during bullish cycle of semiconductor sector.

In Singapore, 5G related stocks are mainly semiconductor suppliers (eg. process/testing equipment, precision engineering, printed circuit board, etc), smaller players but at least 2 are giant stocks (based on Dr Tee giant criteria). Semiconductor sector is considered essential business during Covid-19 pandemic, manufacturing could still continue in Singapore and some other countries.

Here, 5 Singapore semiconductor supplier stocks with reasonably good fundamental (growing business with low debt) are selected for review, potentially could benefit from 5G business (driven by clients’ demand).  However, each 5G stock requires different positioning of stock strategy, either for long term investor or short term trading. Only Micro-Mechanics and UMS are giant stocks for investing but other stocks may be considered for trading.

1) Micro-Mechanics (SGX: 5DD) – Singapore Semiconductor Giant Stock

Micro-Mechanics designs and manufactures high precision parts and tools used in applications for the wafer-fabrication (front-end) and assembly processes (back-end) of the semiconductor industry. The company operates in 5 countries: Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, USA, and China.

Micro-mechanics is a multi-role giant stock, suitable for different personalities of investors. It could be a long term growth stock (supported by growing businesses with strong cash flow and little debt). It is also ideal for medium term cyclic trading with “Buy Low Sell High” optimism strategy. It may be considered as a defender for dividend stock investor with about 6% dividend yield currently. Each of the 3 stock strategies require different entry and exit plans.

2) UMS (SGX: 558) – Singapore Semiconductor Giant Stock

UMS provides high precision front-end semiconductor components, and electromechanical assembly and final testing services. Semiconductor is main business. It operates manly in Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, US, South Korea and China.

UMS is a highly cyclic giant stock (despite fundamentally strong), currently at moderate high optimism, therefore not suitable for consideration for long term investing (requiring a global financial crisis with bearish semiconductor cycle before the next entry with condition business fundamental will still be strong). UMS is ideal for medium term cyclic trading with “Buy Low Sell High” optimism strategy, recovering well from nearly 50% price correction in recent global stock crisis due to Covid-19 pandemic. It may be considered as a mid-fielder for mid-term investing with about 4% dividend yield while waiting for capital gains.

3) AEM (SGX: AWX) – Singapore Semiconductor Stock

AEM provides system testing and handling solutions for semiconductor and electronics companies in Asia and globally. It operates through Equipment Systems Solutions, System Level Test & Inspection, Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems, and Test and Measurement Solutions segments

AEM is a very cyclic stock in long term (partly due to cyclic business of semiconductor cycle), currently at high optimism, therefore not suitable for consideration for long term investing (requiring a global financial crisis with bearish semiconductor cycle before the next entry with condition business fundamental will still be strong). AEM is suitable for medium term momentum trading with “Buy Low & Hold” position trading strategy, supported by strong business performance over the past 5 years due to bullish semiconductor cycle. It may also be considered as a striker for very short term momentum trading with “Buy High Sell Higher” strategy but requiring strict compliance with S.E.T. (Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices) trading plan.

4) Frencken (SGX: E28) – Singapore Semiconductor Stock

Frencken operates as a capital and consumer equipment service provider worldwide. It has 2 segments, Mechatronics and Integrated Manufacturing Services (IMS). It only has partial business related to semiconductor, therefore closer to a technology stock with diversified sectors.

Frencken is a cyclic stock in long term (despite reasonably strong business fundamental over the past 5 years, following economic cycle), currently at high optimism, therefore not suitable for consideration for long term investing (requiring a global financial crisis with low optimism before the next entry with condition business fundamental will still be strong). Frencken is ideal for medium term cyclic trading with “Buy Low Sell High” optimism strategy, recovering well from nearly 50% price correction in recent global stock crisis due to Covid-19 pandemic. It may also be considered as a striker for very short term momentum trading with “Buy High Sell Higher” strategy but requiring strict compliance with S.E.T. (Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices) trading plan. It has particularly strong business fundamental in 2019, supporting the rising prices then, careful monitoring of future quarterly financial performance is required for short term trading.

5) Avi-Tech Electronics (SGX: BKY) – Singapore Semiconductor Stock

Avi-Tech Electronics provides burn-in, manufacturing and printed circuit board assembly, and engineering services for the semiconductor, electronics, life sciences, aviation, and other industries. It only has partial business related to semiconductor, therefore closer to a technology stock with diversified sectors. It serves customers in Singapore, US, Malaysia, Germany, Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, and China.

Avi-Tech is an average performance technology stock in long term (despite reasonably good business fundamental over the past 5 years, following economic cycle), currently at moderate high optimism, therefore not suitable for consideration for long term investing. Avi-Tech is also not a good choice for trading due to lack of price strength. It may be considered as a mid-term defender for dividend stock investor with about 6% dividend yield currently. However, since there are so many better choices of 5G stocks (even Micro-Mechanics or Singtel also has 6% dividend yield, supported by stronger businesses), Avi-Tech is clearly a choice from the bottom of the list, reviewed for the sake of comparison with other 5G stocks.

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Technology stocks (including semiconductor) could be exciting experience for an investor, especially with cyclic investing. Sometimes, a strong momentum technology stock could surge more than 100% in price in less than 1 year.  A stock trader could be in dilemma, whether to sell (potential “risk” is may miss further upside in prices) or to hold (potential risk is huge price correction during stock crisis, eg. price may cut by half in recent Covid-19 pandemic).

A simple and powerful stock strategy is to apply “50/50” method, i.e. whenever stock price of a giant stock is doubled, just sell half of the stocks, since capital is recovered (with 2X price, selling 50% stocks), an investor has stronger holding power for the remaining 50% position as the worst could happen in future would be 0% gain, not losing money at all (assuming remaining 50% stocks drop to $0, possible worst case). However, for technology or semiconductor stocks which are cyclic at high optimism, it is relatively safer to sell 100% of stock first, buying back the same giant stocks at lower optimism in the next opportunity.

Micro-Mechanics, UMS and AEM are not 30 STI index component stocks but they are much stronger than most of these blue chip stocks (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 members.

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Myth of Negative Oil Price (扑朔迷离)

Posted on April 21, 2020 Written by
negative oil price

US oil (WTI) May 2020 futures contract price crashed yesterday (20 Apr 2020 is the last day before May 2020 US oil future contract expires) to negative $37. Global investors may be confused, why it is possible for oil price to drop to negative, does it mean oil investment fund will go bankrupt? Global consumers may be excited, does it mean petrol from gas station is free from now? Here are the details to uncover this myth.

An oil futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a certain number of barrels set amount of oil at a predetermined price, on a predetermined date.  There are 2 main oil futures contracts: WTI (mainly US oil prices) and Brent (overseas oil prices, outside US). Oil investors would choose futures contracts over spot contracts which requires delivery / storage of physical crude oil in barrels which is not practical. 

An alternative is investing through oil ETFs (eg. USO, UCO, DBO, BON, etc) without actually owning a futures contract by investor (maximum risk is limited to investment on ETF), aiming to follow the oil price movement for capital gains. However, these oil ETFs are not suitable for holding long term (eg. more than 3 years) as there is high rollover cost for futures contracts, a strategy by oil ETF fund manager to keep the oil investment without need to physically store the oil. When futures contracts prices for later months are higher than nearby month, it is called “Contango”, would incur additional cost, when adding up over long term, could be significant to reduce the potential capital gains in actual oil price appreciation. Reversed process is called “Backwardation” which oil ETF would have positive rollover yield due to lower futures contract prices for later months.

In general, when oil price is volatile in short term (eg. up and down 20%-50%), these rollover cost or return may not be obvious. However, in May 2020 futures contract, there is a serious contango with low demand for oil price (due to global lockdown for Coronavirus, especially in US which affects WTI oil price) with over-supply of oil (global oil producers’ action to limit the production is not fast nor strong enough). Due to nearly full storage of oil in US, a buyer would have problem with high storage cost if buying in May. With tremendous sell by oil ETF for May 2020 futures contracts (rollover to buy later months futures contracts), oil price drops below $0 to negative $37, technically sellers are paying to buyers to collect the oil which is abnormal, never happened before.

This abnormality of negative oil price is a historical event, a combination both black swans of Coronavirus (low oil demand) and crude oil price war (high oil supply), breaking down near the worst time of US with severe Coronavirus condition in Apr 2020.  The nearby or front month futures contract now is Jun 2020, WTI oil price is back to a more normal of $21/barrel (usually within $5 difference with Brent oil price which is around $25). So, global consumers may be disappointed as gas station won’t give free petrol unless this negative price is over a longer period of time.

The same negative oil price may or may not happen before expiry date of June 2020 futures contract as oil investors have 1 more month to observe the changes in oil price demand and supply, especially the Coronavirus condition which affects the US economy when it be restarted. The production cut of global oil produces from May 2020 although limited, may help to a certain extent.

negative oil price

The global Coronavirus condition is improving with 5 days consistent downtrend in number of new daily cases. US has also shown a gradual downtrend in new daily Coronavirus cases over last 1 week which is an weak positive signal, if better results are seen by end of Apr 2020, more states in US would restart the economy. Most Americans drive, so when lockdown is stopped, US oil price (WTI) would recover naturally with more energy consumption. Trump may also consider to buy more unwanted US oil at low or negative prices to top up the national oil reserves. Europe countries have significantly lower number of new daily Coronavirus cases, lockdown may gradually be loosened, combined with more manufacturing activities in China, global demand for oil price would gradually pickup by summer. Singapore has a surge in number of Coronavirus cases over the past 1 week but mainly this is within foreign labour dormitories, risk of community infection is in fact lower with stricter partial lockdown.

Global consumers likely could continue to enjoy cheaper petrol prices but not free oil as the negative oil price is a rare product of 2 black swans of Coronavirus crisis and oil price war crisis. If oil prices are below $20/barrel over a longer period of time (eg. a few years), weaker oil producers countries would start to go bankrupt (see past example of Venezuela, even oil price was above $50 a few years ago), following by US shale oil producers (production cost is around $50/barrel), then Russia (production cost is around $20/barrel), finally only Saudi (despite production cost is $5/barrel, there is high national expenses, need much higher oil price to sustain the normal lifestyles).

So, what are the options for global oil investors? Oil ETF such as USO has reasonable correlation to WTI, eg. when oil price surged from $20 to $28 a few weeks ago, USO also went up by similar magnitude of 40% in short term. With yesterday negative oil price, USO is only partially affected as most contracts are already rollover to later months, USO is corrected by around 10%.  USO has some flexibility to rollover future contracts to 2 months later, instead of to nearby month (more volatile, negative oil price may have chance to happen again by 20 May 2020 before June 2020 futures contracts expire) but this would affect the tracking of WTI short term oil price (in exchange for smoother price movement). USO is not suitable for holding long time due to Contango effect, so for oil investors who see significant appreciation (eg. 20-50%) in future oil price in short to mid term (less than 1 year), may consider to take progressive profits as rollover cost is inherent to oil ETFs (similar to holding cost), hard to find other better way to invest in oil prices.

Oil investors may also consider indirect way of investing through energy ETF (eg. XLE, SPDR energy sector ETF) which invests in oil & gas stocks with reasonable correlation to oil prices but won’t be easily affected by such abnormality of negative oil price (XLE was only down by 3% yesterday with negative oil price).

A better oil investment option could be to focus in global oil & gas giant stocks (44 of them based on Dr Tee giant criteria), many are midstream oil 7 gas stocks, eg. storage or delivery of oil which is a more defensive business segment. Storage of oil is a consistent profitable business, some companies are strong in business despite oil & gas crisis over the past 5 years. Oil delivery business could be temporary affected due to lower demand of oil. These midstream oil & gas stocks could even pay consistent dividend, suitable for holding during low optimism of stock prices, waiting for recovery of oil price for potential capital gains indirectly.

Of course, one may do futures trading directly without oil ETF or oil & gas stocks. However, futures trading is speculative in nature for shorter term, may not be suitable for retail traders. Even Singapore oil trading company, Hin Leong, could go bankrupt after losing US$800M in oil futures trading. As a result, 3 major banks (DBS, OCBC, UOB) in Singapore would need to set aside provisions for this non-performing loan (NPL) but risks to these banks are lower than 5 years ago when more weak oil & gas companies were in trouble (eg. Swiber, Marco Polo Marine, etc).

Sharing above is for educational purpose. Readers have to make own decision after independent thinking, especially on risk tolerance level, always having the option not to consider any investment in crisis sectors with business seriously affected.

There are other sectors which business are relatively strong, eg. technology (especially internet related), consumer staples, healthcare, property, etc, many global giant stocks (over 1500) could be considered. Due to the uncertainty in Coronavirus condition (despite downtrends in last 5 days for world condition), stock investors may need to plan for capital allocation (investment in batches) with a portfolio of giant stocks supported by strong fundamental business, so that one could invest with a peace of mind, no need to worry of abnormality such as negative oil price.

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Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks of growing sectors with 3 value investing strategies (undervalue, growth, dividend stocks), knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 members.

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

Filed Under: Commodity Market, Stock Market, Trading Tagged: , , , , , , , , ,

Dr Tee Video Education: Global Stock Crisis Investing

Posted on March 21, 2020 Written by
Global Stock Crisis Investing

In this Dr Tee video education (Global Stock Crisis Investing), you will learn:

1) Understand how the 2 black swans crashed the global stock market in last 1 month

2) Compare global stock market losses: US, Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Germany.

3) Technical Analysis of Coronavirus by country with stage of virus life cycle and estimated ending period.

4) Position in two possible scenarios for global stock market before summer 2020 (Jun-July).

5) Investment clock (When to Buy / Sell) with Optimism Strategies (long term / mid term / short term) for 5 global stock markets: World, US, Singapore, Hong Kong and China.

Here is English Version of Ein55 Video Course (Chinese version is available as Dr Tee is bilingual):

This crisis investing strategy may be applied to 30 Singapore STI index component stocks (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

This powerful strategy can be extended to global giant stocks including 30 Malaysia Bursa KLCI index component stocks (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
CIMB (Bursa: 1023) CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BERHAD, DIALOG (Bursa: 7277) DIALOG GROUP BERHAD, DIGI (Bursa: 6947) DIGI.COM BERHAD, GENM (Bursa: 4715) GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD, GENTING (Bursa: 3182) GENTING BERHAD, HAPSENG (Bursa: 3034) HAP SENG CONSOLIDATED BERHAD, HARTA (Bursa: 5168) HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BERHAD, HLBANK (Bursa: 5819) HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD, HLFG (Bursa: 1082) HONG LEONG FINANCIAL GROUP BERHAD, IHH (Bursa: 5225) IHH HEALTHCARE BERHAD, IOICORP (1961) IOI CORPORATION BERHAD, KLCC (Bursa: 5235SS) KLCC PROPERTY HOLDINGS BERHAD, KLK (Bursa: 2445) KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BERHAD, MAXIS (Bursa: 6012) MAXIS BERHAD, MAYBANK (Bursa: 1155) MALAYAN BANKING BERHAD, MISC (Bursa: 3816) MISC BERHAD, NESTLE (Bursa: 4707) NESTLE MALAYSIA BERHAD, PBBANK (Bursa: 1295) PUBLIC BANK BERHAD, PCHEM (Bursa: 5183) PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BERHAD, PETDAG (Bursa: 5681) PETRONAS DAGANGAN BHD, PETGAS (Bursa: 6033) PETRONAS GAS BERHAD, PMETAL (Bursa: 8869) PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDINGS BERHAD, PPB (Bursa: 4065) PPB GROUP BERHAD, RHBBANK (Bursa: 1066) RHB BANK BERHAD, SIME (Bursa: 4197) SIME DARBY BERHAD, SIMEPLT (Bursa: 5285) SIME DARBY PLANTATION BERHAD, TENAGA (Bursa: 5347) TENAGA NASIONAL BHD, TM (Bursa: 4863) TELEKOM MALAYSIA BERHAD, TOPGLOV (7113) TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.

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There are over 1500 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar.

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Personal Analysis, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Trading Tagged: , ,

Strategies for Gold & Silver Trading and Investing

Posted on March 15, 2020 Written by
Strategies for Gold & Silver Trading and Investing

Gold and Silver are popular precious metals for commodity trading. However, they are no longer effective hedging tools against market fear (eg. inflation or uncertainty), when common pool of investors are fearful of stock market, especially during global financial crisis, commodity market (including gold, silver, crude oil, etc) would fall as well.

Over the long term, gold and silver move in similar mega direction for price trends. They have more unique mega market cycle of 30 years (dual peaks in 1980s and 2010s), therefore longer term investor of gold and silver must know their optimism level to lower the systematic risk due to market cycle. Both gold and silver have crashed in year 2013, after reaching the 30 years mega peak.

From investing point of view, despite gold and silver relatively at moderate optimism in long term but when global commodity market (eg. crude oil) and stock market are falling, the fear from similar group of investors may correct the gold and silver prices.

Relatively, gold and silver also have relative competition, maintaining gold/silver price ratio of about 20 to 100 over the past 50 years. Currently, gold/silver ratio is near to the historical (50 years) peak of 100, implying gold has more downside relative to silver. Some smart investors apply the spreading (20-100) of gold/silver ratio for trading, eg

1) Sell Gold Buy Silver

when gold/silver ratio is crossing below 80

2) Buy Gold Sell Silver

when gold/silver ratio is crossing above 40

After the major correction, since Year 2016, Gold has been bullish for the past few years, suitable for momentum trading to buy high sell higher. In the same period, Silver is also recovering but more cyclic in nature (silver is as if a more cyclic “penny stock” while gold is a more stable “blue chip”), suitable for swing trading over the past few years.

Strategies for Gold & Silver Trading and Investing
Strategies for Gold & Silver Trading and Investing

From trading point of view, gold has higher risk of falling for short term to mid term as gold prices are falling below US$1550/oz, the neckline of double top at high optimism (crossing below 75% optimism around $1600 was an earlier signal for exit for trading).

Unlike stock, gold and silver are pure trading tools, no business fundamental behind. So, follow Technical Analysis to position if interested. Gold has to break higher than US$1600 to resume the uptrend, therefore traders may wait if there is a reversal.

Long term trend for silver is similar to gold but short term silver is much weaker in price strength compared with gold. Currently both gold and silver are under shorting pressure due to short term bearish signals.

There are several major investment markets (commodity – eg gold / silver, stock, property, forex, bond, bitcoin, etc) with unique market cycles but they share 3 universal formula to make money from investing or trading:

1) Buy Low Sell High (Cyclic Investing)

2) Buy Low & Hold (Growth Investing)

3) Buy High Sell Higher (Momentum Trading)

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Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 members.

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)
Filed Under: Commodity Market, Market Outlook, Technical Analysis, Trading Tagged: , , , , , ,
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