Dr Tee (Ein55) FREE Stock Investment Course in Singapore
危机，有危就有机。Dr Tee 应用了难得休假，制作更多网上学习课程。几天的努力后，呈献给 Ein55 会员，全新的免费华语视频投资课程（一小时多的学习）：环球股票市场展望与冠状病毒技术分析。
这儿是 Dr Tee 华语视频 （英语视频也已完成，Dr Tee 双语皆行）： https://youtu.be/Wxq_6lj_mOE
请欣赏鄙作，留言求进步。您可订阅 Ein55 youtube 频道，链接未来投资视频。双红利：
1) Dr Tee 9堂网上价值投资策略课程 ($100, Ein55 会员获得75%折扣，只需$25, 可全家分享):
https://www.investingnote.com/store/products/discover-giant-stocks-value-investing-strategies
2) Dr Tee 免费投资课程与电子书下载:
www.ein55.com
Similar to Technical Analysis for stock market, we may analyze the # infected cases as share prices but looking for bearish signal, eg downtrend or breaking below a critical support, eg 2000 cases for World (mainly China Hubei) or 2 cases for Singapore.
Latest Coronavirus data (16 Feb 2020) has 3 cases of # infected in Singapore, having good chance to come to “technical support” of 2 daily cases again but need to break below this number for a few days or even 1 week to establish a consistent downtrend. It is harder to analyze Singapore cases due to limited sample size (similar to a volatile penny stock, when base is a low number, up/down would create large % changes).
So, it is relatively more stable to analyze world # infected cases (still near to support of 2000 daily new cases but not yet breaking downward) which are more stable due to large sample size (so far consistently about 1000 times of # cases in Singapore). The mega trend of world could provide some leads to direction of Singapore cases in future.
For stock analysis, this is similar to Level Analysis (LA) or LOFTP strategies, Top-down analysis from World (Level 4) to Country (Level 3) to Sector (Level 2) to Individual Stock (Level 1). For Coronavirus:
Level 4 = World # infected
Level 3 = Respective Country # infected
Level 2 = Respective City # Infected (Singapore L2 = L3 due to small country = city)
Level 1 = Cluster / Group / Company of related cases (smallest unit to track # infected cases).
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Singapore Budget 2020 to be announced on 18 Feb 2020, ideally will serve multiple objectives for 3 different time frames (similar to stock investment: short term, mid term and long term):
1) Short-term (< 3 months): Coronavirus induced financial crisis, especially selected sectors.
2) Mid-term (<1 year): Stimulate Singapore economy which has been slowing down (even before Coronavirus outbreak)
3) Long-term (5-10 years): Create new opportunity for Singapore (restructuring of economy, training / investment in emerging technologies with higher economic values, etc)
Of course, politically, this would give 4th generation leaders, a chance to take the lead, making major decisions during potential crisis time. The results in short term, mid term and long term would translate into scores for voters to consider before next General Election, within 1+ year (latest by 15 Apr 2021). Balance in consideration for short term, mid term and long term would be a test on wisdom of leaders, whether to satisfy short term crisis needs or looking for long term growth or a balanced or average approach with sharing of resources to make most people satisfied but not excited.
Crisis could be an opportunity if the crisis could be resolved eventually with right decisions most of the time. It is true for all countries leaders, especially those most affected by the current Coronavirus: China, Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong, etc.
Learn the opportunity in stock market while waiting for recovery of Coronavirus Crisis: www.ein55.com
There is about 7X surge (from about 2000 to 14840) in daily new cases of Coronavirus reported today in Hubei of China? No, this is statistical illusion due to different methods.
Old method requires full diagnosis (longer time, more steps) for confirmation. So, it is possible to have many undiagnosed cases which were not reported as confirmed # infected.
New method could confirm # infected after CT scan (faster), therefore number # infected “increased” suddenly overnight.
So, for 14840 “new” cases in Hubei for 12 Feb 2020, we need to divided into 2 methods for consistent comparison:
Old method = 1508
New method = 14840
Difference = 14840 – 1508 = 13332
So, for consistency in reporting, past data should have 2 system, either all old method or all new method (quite unlikely for past data with new method unless they have collected these data but not reported before).
So, it means for future data analysis, we need to add “adjustment” of difference in 2 methods for consistent trend analysis. Eg, 13332 has to be deducted from final 60327 world # infected for 12 Feb 2020, therefore only 46995 case if follow the consistent old method for all data collected so far, therefore only 1825 cases for 12 Feb 2020 (down from with 2071 cases on 11 Feb 2020).
It is important for authority to provide 2 different sets of number or do a one-time adjustment for all data. If not, readers have to analyze data using 2 different timeframes:
Old Method = 22 Jan 2020 to 11 Feb 2020
New Method = 12 Feb 2020 onward
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Inconsistent policy or reporting criteria is nightmare for analyst, both for Coronavirus and Financial Market (eg. Stock). In fact, both absolute number (eg. # infected on certain day, earning of company for certain quarter) and relative number (eg. weekly difference of # infected, quarterly or Y-O-Y earning difference of company) are important as they serve different purpose.
Absolute number is to benchmark against certain fixed criteria, eg max # infected for SARS vs Coronavirus, Price to Book ratio of an undervalue company (PB<1) .
Relative number is to show the trend, eg % share prices difference over last 1 week or 1 month during Coronavirus.
Adjustment is everywhere, not a nightmare if we are prepared. Eg, when company has changes in number of shares (stock split or consolidation), the price per share or earning per share can be adjusted accordingly.
The impact of new method in Coronavirus is probably similar to IFRS16 adopted in year 2019 by most countries (except for US, Europe and some countries), resulting in confusion as past financial data (before 2018) could not be adjusted easily, requiring reading financial reports to understand true impact of change.
Similarly, for the sudden surge (1 time) in Coronavirus case today should be viewed as policy change, analyst needs to adjust manually or best with help by authority to provide consistent data (more important than true data). For example, Singapore provide consistent data in # cases for Coronavirus and try its best to cover most cases (may not be all as some have no symptom, infected but not known), therefore reporting higher # infected than other regional countries outside China.
However, current global Coronavirus data of each country can still be trusted because the relative trend is consistent, despite each country may have somewhat different criteria and also effort in diagnosis.
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In fact, I have pointed out in earlier post that fatality rate of Hubei is 16 times higher than outside Hubei which is not reasonable. So, this confirms that there a significant reporting difference, resulting in # infected cases reported are less, therefore fatality in Hubei is much higher.
https://www.ein55.com/2020/02/hidden-statistical-analysis-of-coronavirus-with-stock-investment/
Bad News = Ignorant people becomes fearful as “actual” # infected is 7X higher (although could be 14X higher if we use same fatality rate to find hidden data)
Good News = higher # infected confirms the actual fatality rate of Coronavirus should be much lower, the “average” of 2% was based on old method, so if we use simple 2% / 7, actual average fatality could be around 0.3% which is reasonable.
Learn the right way of Technical Analysis in stock investment: www.ein55.com
Over the past 7 years of teaching with over 700 days of lessons, Dr Tee has not taken 1 single day of MC, working nearly each day. So naturally I feel sad to cancel 12 events in Feb 2020 due to Coronavirus alert by government for wellness of students during this crucial period.
Crisis is Opportunity, I have used the 1 month homestay to learn how to make youtube video talk. After a few days of effort, here is Ein55 Talk for Ein55 Reader on Wuhan Coronavirus Life Cycle with Stock Market Analysis.
Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Ein55 youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Ein55 video talks. You may also attend Dr Tee free investment courses and download free eBooks at www.ein55.com. Join Dr Tee Facebook Investment Forum: https://www.facebook.com/groups/ein55forum/
Here is English Version of Dr Tee Video Talk (Chinese version is available as Dr Tee is bilingual):
过去七年教书生涯，Dr Tee 主办了超过700堂投资课，没拿过一天病假。武汉病毒警戒，我取消二月份的12课程，为了保护学生安康，纵然心痛浪费学习机会。
危机，有危就有机。我应用了难得休假，学习 youtube 视频制作。几天的努力后，呈献给 Ein55 会员，华语视频：武汉冠状病毒生命周期与股票市场分析。
请欣赏鄙作，留言求进步。您可订阅 Ein55 youtube 频道，链接未来投资视频。您也可参加 Dr Tee 免费投资课程与下载电纸书：www.ein55.com. 参加 Dr Tee Facebook 投资论坛: https://www.facebook.com/groups/ein55forum/
这儿是 Dr Tee 华语视频 （英语视频也已完成，Dr Tee 双语皆行）：
Share price is a 3-dimensional movement, governed by Ein55 Law of Stock Market Motion:
Optimism = PA = TA – FA, [gap between price and value]
TA = FA + PA
z = f (FA, PA), function of FA and PA
where PA = Personal Analysis, TA = Technical Analysis, FA = Fundamental Analysis
It means share price (TA) which is the vertical Z-axis, is a function of X-axis which is business Fundamental Analysis (FA: strong or weak) and Y-axis (depth direction of roller coaster) which is market emotions with Personal Analysis (PA: greed or fear). Both the FA and PA could contribute to up and down in share prices (TA), main contributors to the Law of Stock Market Motion.
Ein55 Law of Stock Market Motion simply means that both market emotions and macroeconomy / business strength contribute to movement in stock market. Based on probability, a company which has consistent good performance in business will likely to perform well in stock prices over a longer term. Similarly, when there is an unexpected bad news or unpredictable outcome which results in stock market fear, the share price is likely to fall down. In the real world of stock market, both fundamental (FA) and emotions (PA) will be combined to form an unique condition of stock market on different day, therefore creating different share prices each day, hour or even minute.
When we buy a stock at low optimism, it means we buy when the gap between share price and value is the large, an undervalue stock with price below value. When we sell a stock at high optimism, it means the share price is much more than value, an overpriced stock.
Learn the Law of Stock Market Motion from Dr Tee FREE stock investment course to understand how the share prices could move up and down in the stock market.
Poor Noble Group (SGX: N21), just about to recover, Iceberg is back with new report. Similar to Ezra and Cosco, it is a crisis stock with declining business and stock price.
It is not suitable to apply conventional method to analyze Noblle Group. Technically it is like a new company now, most of the good assets are sold to save the company by paying the debt. It may not have the same power to recover to the past glory.
Since it is a trader stock, fundamental will be relatively not so critical as in a bullish market, even weak fundamental stock could rise many times under speculation. It is more suitable for short term trading, using short term TA signals. 23 cents support was broken downward, combining with Iceberg (negative PA), tough on Noble. It is still above the intermediate support of 20 cents. There is no need to guess for trading, prices with support and resistance will show us the probability.
NAV (Net Asset Value) criteria may not be suitable for Noble Group as it becomes asset light business, the asset quality is also a question mark. Good assets are properties and cash, many company have these quality assets, some with discounted share price.
Iceberg may be shorting all the way on Noble to low optimism with profits. If Iceberg is profit driven, similar to hedge fund, they could change to long position to “accept” Noble now, so that they could profit from recovery of Noble. Since Iceberg is still consistent in their negative views, it deserves some respect as they have principles. At low optimism, even for lousy business, very little profit potential to short a stock. With recovery of commodity market, Noble could have survived the greatest business crisis.
In ancient time, a warrior could cut off own arm to save one life when bitten by poisonous snake. Noble has cut his arm of core asset to save from 2 “snakes” with multiple bites from Iceberg and Muddy Water, starving in a cold winter (commodity crisis). It deserves a chance to recover.
壮士断腕、可悲可泣。
There are many similarities between Poker Game and Investing. In fact, we could have more special edges or unfair advantage in investing but most people do not know.
1) Technical Analysis (TA) – Reward / Risk, Following Trend
For both poker and investing, we bid or invest more when the reward/risk is higher. If we play Black Jack (total = 21 points), if you have 12 points, likely you will take the risk to add 1 more card because your chance (a card with 9 or less points, so that not exceeding 21 points) is high. Similarly, for trading or investing, eg. when stock price is near to the support, we would start to enter as the reward (upside) is more than the risk (downside).
Similarly, when a poker player has smooth win (good trend in winning), eg. facing a weak opponent, may add more position to maximize the gains. This is similar to a trader who follows the market trend which is an edge.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackjack
2) Personal Analysis (PA) – Manage your emotions
A good poker player is calm, even holding lousy cards, will show confidence, so that opponents could not tell. There is a poker game Bluff, the player could have lousy cards but pretend to have perfect cards. Opponent who challenges the truth could suffer as sometimes the player will purposely tell the truth. Similarly, a good investor will use the market greed and fear as a weapon, doing differently from the majority.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluff_(poker)
3) Fundamental Analysis (FA)
This is the main difference between Poker game and Investing. Poker is a pure probability game, therefore TA & PA are the main edges. For investing, we could be selective to only consider strong business as they are more likely to grow in share price.
4) Optimism Strategies = FA + TA +PA (integration of all into strategies)
Strategies formation is important, integrating all the critical factors. Each poker player and trader / investor has own unique strategy, aligning to own personality, based on learning from positive experiences. The strategies could change when the opponents (market) may be different, could be weaker (bear market) or stronger (bull market) opponents, which one would adjust the strategies accordingly.
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So, knowing the similarities and differences of poker game and investing (stock, property, etc), we understand that we could have the special edges or unfair advantage like Casino (more than 51% winning rate) if we know how to position Optimism + FA + TA + PA, aligning with own unique personality.
Investment is to take calculated risk, using special edges (eg. Optimism + FA + TA + PA) to give unfair advantages in winning rate over time, aligning to own personality with independent thinking.
Investment is NOT to copy and paste the methods with stock tips, news and rumours, following herd mentality with hope strategy.
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No one could know what will happen tomorrow. Guessing or hoping is not a reliable strategy for investment. Instead, we should know ourselves first, our unique personality which comprises of many aspects, eg. control of greed and fear, stress management, risk tolerance level, profit target, financial condition, holding power, resources available, etc.
Even if one only masters one weapon, it could give special edge, although it is limited. Eg:
Investor – using FA (Fundamental Analysis) weapon to find strong business
Trader – using TA (Technical Analysis) weapon to ride the trend of prices.
One should bridge between FA & TA:
FA + TA = FATA (发达)
Ideally, we could add 2 more weapons of Optimism + PA (Personal Analysis) to form a personalized strategy for any investment: stock, property, bond, commodity, forex, etc.
