Technical Analysis Archives - Page 4 of 6

Kiasu & Kiasi Crisis Stock Strategy (鱼与熊掌)

Posted on April 8, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

There are 2 distinct fearful personalities in each person (depending on condition): Kiasu (怕输) and Kiasi (怕死). Kiasu is “Fear of Missing Out” (FOMO), eg. commonly seen in Great Singapore Sales (long queue overnight for certain special offer), afraid of missing the opportunity. Kiasi means “Fear of Death”, safety first in most actions with low risk. Of course, it is possible to have Kiasu and Kiasi together, eg. long queue in supermarket, afraid the food supply may be limited during Coronavirus crisis.

It is not a shame to be Kiasu and/or Kiasi as it is human nature. A smart investor may align one’s unique fearful personality with opportunities in global stock market crisis. This way, the inner potential could be fully maximized to profit from giant stocks at low optimism. Let’s study in more details on both crisis stock strategies.

1) Kiasu Crisis Stock Strategy

This is suitable for contrarian investor with counter-trend investing strategy during bearish stock market, especially when stock prices are far below the intrinsic value, dropping below low optimism <25%. Warren Buffett could be the best example of this type of investor, usually show hands when market is crashed, “be greedy when others are fearful”.

Similar to Great Singapore Sales, when a shopper has only $100 budget, seeing a handbag with 50% discount at $50, may buy 1 first due to fear of missing out (Kiasu) as the opportunity may be on available on that day. It is crucial to reserve the capital as there be another better offer elsewhere or another day with 70% discount.

Contrarian investor is similar to smart shopper, would invest in giant stocks with strong business fundamental with multiple entries. For stock capital of $10k, one may split into several investments, eg (10 x 10%) or (5 x 20%) or (2 x 50%), etc, diversifying over different prices, each entry could be X% apart, eg 5-10% lower each time to justify further investment. This way of average down at low optimism prices would help to get as close to bottom price as possible, even no one would know what will be the lowest price.

Assuming the crisis (buy low get lower) may last for 1-2 years, investing with giant dividend stocks (including giant REITs) with overt 5% dividend yield would help to strengthen the holding power as during this period, one could enjoy 5% passive income (assuming worst crisis may even cut 50% of dividend, left only 2.5%, still higher than bank interest rate of 1+%). When crisis is over (no need to time the market), naturally the investor would enjoy the capital gains when stock prices start to soar, supporting by growing business of giant stocks. Then, contrarian investor may need to plan for when to sell or how long to hold (similar to last few years when global stock markets were in high optimism >75%).

Common failure of this strategy by beginner is to buy weak fundamental stocks at “historical low” price or last 10 years low, which may become lower in future, company may go bankrupt during crisis (eg. certain weak airlines or F&B stocks in Coronavirus crisis), may not have chance to wait for share price or business recovery.

For this strategy to work, contrarian investor requires to invest in a portfolio of giant stocks at low optimism (ideally <25%) with strong business fundamental (following Dr Tee criteria, there are over 1500 global giant stocks). If capital is limited, one may invest in major stock index ETF at low optimism (eg. Hong Kong Hang Seng Index ETF, Singapore STI ETF, China SSEC ETF, etc) which indirectly has diversification over a portfolio of blue chip stocks (although not all are giant stocks).

2) Kiasi Crisis Stock Strategy

This is suitable for trend-following investor or traders, waiting for reversal of share prices from bottom (paying premium of higher prices similar to insurance to ensure price is back to uptrend), still buying at low optimism <25% (but in uptrend price direction). This is integration of trading (trend-following) into investing (waiting for price below intrinsic value of giant stocks).

Safety is important for kiasi traders who could not let the capital stuck in the stock market as regular income (capital gains within weeks or months) is important for short term to mid term trading. Therefore, a stronger uptrend over weeks or months need to be established first (reg. higher highs and higher lows price pattern) before entry.

In case the uptrend or reversal could be a technical rebound, a trader needs to do further deeper market analysis to understand the competing forces of greed (eg. unlimited QE, less cases in Coronavirus, etc) and fear (eg. serious Coronavirus condition, weaker economy and business). For risk management, a trader may apply S.E.T. (Stop Loss, Entry, Target Prices) trading plan, following strictly. When direction is correct, a trader may add more position in the same direction (eg. uptrend prices).

For trend-following investors or traders, the risk of stuck in long winter (low optimism period such as global stock crisis, Global Financial Crisis or even Great Depression) is lower than counter-trend investors, therefore possible to consider growth stocks (little dividend) or some midfielder stocks (mix of growth and dividend stocks), focusing more on capital gains in a more bullish stock market.

==========================

There are about 100 global giant dividend stocks (suitable for Kiasu contrarian investors) and 300+ global giant growth stocks (suitable for Kiasi trend-following investors or traders). It is possible for a smart investor to integrate both kiasu and kiasi strategies together, investing with multiple entries in both bearish and when reversal to bullish stock market with growth dividend giant stocks at low optimism, having the best of 2 investing worlds (鱼与熊掌、实可兼得).

==================================

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 member.

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Market Optimism, Personal Analysis, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Value Investing Tagged: crisis stock investing, global financial crisis, global stock crisis, investment strategies, kiasi, kiasu, stock strategies

Temasek Acquires Crisis Stock Keppel Corp (趁虚而入)

Posted on April 3, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Temasek has offered partial acquisition to Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4) shareholders at the price of $7.35/share up to 51% ownership over 1 year period (with some conditions applied). Since this is not a full acquisition, some investors may be confused of what is fair price for Keppel Corp. Let’s study this acquisition offer in details.

Temasek owns 20.45% of Keppel Corp, intending to purchase shares owned by remaining shareholders (100 – 20.45% = 79.55%) to top up to 51% (still need 51% – 20.45% = 30.55%). So, it is partial acquisition of 30.55/79.55 = 38.4%. It means for every 1000 shares, 384 unit will be acquired.

The offer price of Temasek at $7.35 is about 20% premium over the average price before acquisition, aligned with several other acquisitions in Singapore. However, it only has 38.4% power, not the same as 100% power as other full acquisition (eg. Breadtalk current acquisition offer of $0.77, price would surge near to this price overnight after the announcement). Assuming the Keppel Corp share price is $5/share (on certain day), the theoretical share price after 38.4% partial acquisition = $5 + (7.35 – $5) x 0.384 = $5.90/share. Reader may replace this equation of $5 share price with any latest share price of Keppel Corp before acquisition.

Over the past 1 month of global stock crisis, Singapore stocks fall by about 30% in average but Keppel Corp only falls about 20%, aligning with 38.4% potential acquisition by Temasek which is about 1/3, therefore the stock corrections is also reduced by about 1/3 from 30% to 20%.

It means the global stock crisis still has about 60% impact on Keppel Corp prices. Therefore, an investor has to make decision mainly based on global stock crisis and current stock market condition with Keppel Corp value, not to assume price would recover to $7.35/share price eventually.

==========================

Keppel Corp is a diversified corporation with 4 businesses: offshore &marine, property, infrastructure and investment. The 2 main pillars are Property (Keppel Land, contributing to about 50% company profits) and Oil & Gas (Keppel O&M, main source of losses over the past few years). Over the past 5 years after the oil price fell from $100 to $27/barrel, Keppel Corp suffers directly as main clients reduce the capital expenditure (eg. oil rigs), therefore Oil & Gas becomes a losing segment.

Since 2015 crude oil crisis, Keppel Corp has temporary lost the giant stock title, currently a marginal giant (likely will become giant stock again after oil & gas sector recovery). Luckily Keppel Corp still has 50% earnings from Property (eg. Keppel Land and Keppel Reit), even Oil & Gas is a loss for several years (recovering to small profits in last 1 year), the entire company as a whole could still make a profit. Compared with competitor or sibling, Sembcorp Marine (SGX: S51, also owned by Temasek through Sembcorp Industries) which has full risk exposure to oil & gas crisis, losing money for several years, resulting in share prices falling from $5 to $0.70 (last 17 years low).

Some may think it is “cheaper” to invest in Sembcorp Marine stock (85% correction) compared to Keppel Corp stock ($13 falling to $5/share during oil & gas crisis, about 60% correction). This comparison is only valid if both companies are giant stocks (which are not) because “crisis is not opportunity” if business fundamental is weak, eg for the case of Sembcorp Marine. For Keppel Corp, it is still a 50% giant stock due to strong property business. Therefore, investor of Keppel Corp is actually investing in value of Keppel Corp property (main value) while taking advantage of falling share price (due to Oil & Gas crisis). It was a good move in year 2015 (beginning of oil & gas crisis) for Keppel Corp to offer full acquisition of Keppel Land which 100% profits of property business goes to Keppel Corp, offset the losses in Oil & Gas segment in Keppel O&M.

Assuming Temasek could successfully own 51% of Keppel Corp by end of 2020, it is a full control of company. This may allow possibilities of strategic merging of Temasek subsidiaries companies (eg. Keppel O&M and Sembcorp Marine) or restructuring of Temasek companies, eg. Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Industries (Temasek nearly has 50% control), etc, to maximize the asset values.

===================

During crude oil crisis with Keppel Corp at low optimism prices, Temasek leverages on crisis to have majority control of Keppel Corp at reasonable low price of $7.35/share. This also provides an option for Keppel Corp investors to sell for 20% profit. However, the global stock crisis has disturbed the plans as prices of Keppel Corp are falling even lower than before acquisition news.

Analysis on Keppel Corp is beyond stock and Temasek, also requires understanding of property market and crude oil commodity market. So, it is a stock with complicated interactions of market signals, reflecting in final share prices.

Here is a special Ein55 style, 50% Discount Method for investing in Keppel Corp during crisis (with or without Temasek acquisition) with multiple entries to fight against unknown market crisis ahead. Assuming $10 is a common high level prices (occurred during when economy and crude oil market are bullish), an investor may apply 50% discount in prices each time before each multiple low due several unforeseen market crisis.

$10 = High Level Price (potential future selling price level)

$5 = Crude Oil & Stock Crisis (3 times in 2009, 2016, 2020) after 50% discount x $10

$2.50 = Global Financial Crisis (17 years low) after another 50% discount x $5

$1.25 = Great Depression (20 years low) after another 50% discount x $2.50

This is a non-linear version of multiple entries for very conservative investor who hopes to buy low but afraid of prices could get lower. Assuming all the crisis come (hopefully not), this is average price after 3 entries (like Keppel Corp with property pillar could still survive):

($5 + $2.50 + $1.25) / 3 = $2.92

This is lower than using linear average down method at low optimism (assuming 3 entries with $1 lower each time):

($5 + $4 + $3) / 3 = $4

Each method (linear or non-linear 50% discount) has its benefits. Linear method is more likely to achieve in practical market, for those who wish to reduce downside risk through averaging (eg. 3 times x 33% capital). Non-linear method is for very conservative investor, demanding 50% discount each time before willing to take out precious cash from the pocket for investment. During the long holding period (could be 1-3 years, depending on severity of crisis), Keppel Corp investor may be given an average of 4-5% dividend yield (past 10+ years record), assuming the dividend is also cut by 50% due to crisis, one could still get about 2% dividend yield which is higher than fixed deposit in banks with 1% interest rate. After the crisis is over, assuming the average entry price is only $5 (only 1 crisis experienced), an investor may not need to sell at $10 average high prices for 100%, could even sell near to Temasek fair acquisition price of $7.35 which is over 40% higher than $5 price.

=======================================

Charlie Munger (partner of Warren Buffett) said the big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting. Global stock crisis may happen only every 5 to 10 years. Similar to a lion ambushed, waiting patiently for target, when opportunity comes near, only then strike for higher chance of winning. It is the same for current global stock crisis, for investors “ambushed” for many years, it could be the right time to plan for a strategy to take action in stocks.

Frankly speaking, there are over 100 global giant property stocks and 44 global oil & gas giant stocks (based on Dr Tee criteria), which are much stronger than Keppel Corp. Some of these giant stocks are also falling in prices 20% – 50% recently, “Crisis is Opportunity” investing in these growing business (value) with significant discount in prices.

There are at least 26 Temasek / GLC stocks in Singapore including Keppel Corp, controlling shareholder with 15% or more ownership directly or indirectly (investor needs to focus only on giant Temasek stocks):
Singtel (SGX: Z74), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), SIA Engineering (SGX: S59), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Sembcorp Marine (SGX: S51), Olam (SGX: O32), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Ascott Hospitality Trust (SGX: HMN), Ascendas Hospitality Trust (SGX: Q1P), CapitaLand Retail China Trust (SGX: AU8U), Ascendas-iTrust (SGX: CY6U), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Keppel Infrastructure Trust (SGX: A7RU), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree NAC Trust (SGX: RW0U).

Temasek stocks portfolio also affect about 15% of STI index stocks, which has strong impact on Singapore stock market. Here are 30 STI component stocks:
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), HongkongLand (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 members.

Filed Under: Market Outlook, Property Market, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Value Investing Tagged: acquisition, Blue Chip Stocks, crisis stock, keppel corp, oil & gas, Property, Property Stocks, reit, sembcorp industries, sembcorp marine, temasek, undervalue stock

Time for Bottom of Stock Market (海底捞月)

Posted on March 23, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

No one would know the true bottom (the lowest point) of stock market unless having the ability to “Back to the Future”. Time for the bottom of stock market is ideal but may not be practical as it could be reaching the moon with underwater reflection (海底捞月), greedy for the lowest (cheapest price with most discount) with little considerations of other risk factors, may fall into water with market trap. For those without any action, there is also a fear of missing out, eventually may miss the boat of opportunity totally. So, it is a dilemma for some investors to Buy or to Wait when stock market is bearish.

Similarly, in a Bull market (last 10 years), it is also a headache for investors to “Hold” or to “Sell”. Over the past few years, I have reminded repeatedly readers and students to take note of the high optimism risk at Level 3 (country, especially US) and Level 4 (world) stock markets, safer to apply short term trading, walking on a layer of thin ice which finally breaks over the past 1 month (those who fell but did not sell as short term trader is now trapped with over 30-50% losses). So, even one may not know the highest point, as long as know “High Enough” (>75% optimism), one could escape from the 30% loss in global stock market, which may have another 20-30% potential to fall, if it becomes global financial crisis with declining economy.

However, it is possible to apply probability investing to start progressive entries (for contrarian investor) when it is “Low Enough”. 25% Optimism will be a point of “Low Enough”, 0% Optimism is considered a rare opportunity. However, “Buy Low” is insufficient, one has to align other Ein55 styles to form personalized strategy aligned with own personality, otherwise When “Buy Low” may “Sell Lower” or “Sell Lowest” one day for those with weak holding power, especially if global financial crisis is confirmed and become worse over the next 6-12 months after the starting of global stock crisis in Mar 2020.

Trump and G20 political leaders may join forces in the next 1-3 months to launch the most generous QE ever (eg. massive printing of money of a few Trillions of dollars through asset purchase by government and other feasible economic stimulus tools). However, this is borrowing money from the future generation (20 years from now), simply planting another time bomb for future investment market (similar to QE 1-4 over the past decade, finally triggered by fear of Coronavirus and crude oil crisis).

For smart investor, one could save 10-20 years of investing time by leveraging on current opportunity. However, the lost generation who does not know investment may suffer in future. See Japan ‘s example of lost 3 decades, some elderly people could not retire as retirement was evaporated and young people need to struggle with lower pay job without bright future despite inflation is low.

I am reluctant to reveal here exactly what are the prices of “low enough” (25% optimism) or “rare opportunity” (0% optimism) for each investment here (stocks, properties, commodities, forex, bond, bitcoin, car COE, etc). Main reason is readers may not be trained, sharing may be wrongly used as “tips”, when not supported by other Ein55 styles (eg. strong fundamental stocks and technical of prices, macroeconomic analysis, personality, etc), it could be a disaster.

Current global stock market crisis could be a gift from heaven but only if one knows exactly how to position with integration of minimum 5 Ein55 Styles of LOFTP strategies (Level 1-4, Optimism 0-100%, Fundamental – Strong/Weak, Technical – Up/Down, Personal – Trade / Invest).

Register Here for free 4hr stock investment course by Dr Tee (23 Apr session is full, next one is 21 May session, only 1 class monthly, will be updated in same website): www.ein55.com

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 8000 members:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/ein55forum/

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Optimism, Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: global financial crisis, stock market bottom, stock market crisis

Dr Tee Video Education: Global Stock Crisis Investing

Posted on March 21, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In this Dr Tee video education (Global Stock Crisis Investing), you will learn:

1) Understand how the 2 black swans crashed the global stock market in last 1 month

2) Compare global stock market losses: US, Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Germany.

3) Technical Analysis of Coronavirus by country with stage of virus life cycle and estimated ending period.

4) Position in two possible scenarios for global stock market before summer 2020 (Jun-July).

5) Investment clock (When to Buy / Sell) with Optimism Strategies (long term / mid term / short term) for 5 global stock markets: World, US, Singapore, Hong Kong and China.

Here is English Version of Ein55 Video Course (Chinese version is available as Dr Tee is bilingual):

This crisis investing strategy may be applied to 30 Singapore STI index component stocks (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

This powerful strategy can be extended to global giant stocks including 30 Malaysia Bursa KLCI index component stocks (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
CIMB (Bursa: 1023) CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BERHAD, DIALOG (Bursa: 7277) DIALOG GROUP BERHAD, DIGI (Bursa: 6947) DIGI.COM BERHAD, GENM (Bursa: 4715) GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD, GENTING (Bursa: 3182) GENTING BERHAD, HAPSENG (Bursa: 3034) HAP SENG CONSOLIDATED BERHAD, HARTA (Bursa: 5168) HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BERHAD, HLBANK (Bursa: 5819) HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD, HLFG (Bursa: 1082) HONG LEONG FINANCIAL GROUP BERHAD, IHH (Bursa: 5225) IHH HEALTHCARE BERHAD, IOICORP (1961) IOI CORPORATION BERHAD, KLCC (Bursa: 5235SS) KLCC PROPERTY HOLDINGS BERHAD, KLK (Bursa: 2445) KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BERHAD, MAXIS (Bursa: 6012) MAXIS BERHAD, MAYBANK (Bursa: 1155) MALAYAN BANKING BERHAD, MISC (Bursa: 3816) MISC BERHAD, NESTLE (Bursa: 4707) NESTLE MALAYSIA BERHAD, PBBANK (Bursa: 1295) PUBLIC BANK BERHAD, PCHEM (Bursa: 5183) PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BERHAD, PETDAG (Bursa: 5681) PETRONAS DAGANGAN BHD, PETGAS (Bursa: 6033) PETRONAS GAS BERHAD, PMETAL (Bursa: 8869) PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDINGS BERHAD, PPB (Bursa: 4065) PPB GROUP BERHAD, RHBBANK (Bursa: 1066) RHB BANK BERHAD, SIME (Bursa: 4197) SIME DARBY BERHAD, SIMEPLT (Bursa: 5285) SIME DARBY PLANTATION BERHAD, TENAGA (Bursa: 5347) TENAGA NASIONAL BHD, TM (Bursa: 4863) TELEKOM MALAYSIA BERHAD, TOPGLOV (7113) TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.

===================================

There are over 1500 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar.

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Personal Analysis, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Trading Tagged: crisis stock investing, global financial crisis, video education

Dr Tee 教育视频: 环球股灾送良机

Posted on March 21, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

在这Dr Tee 教育视频（环球股灾送良机），您可学习：

1）两只黑天鹅如何制造过去一个月的全球股灾。

2）比较全球股市亏损程度：美国、新加坡、香港、中国、德国。

3）各国新冠病毒技术分析：疫情周期，预估结束点。

4）夏天（6-7月）前的股市两大布局。

5）乐观指数显示投资时钟（短期、中期、长期）：全球、美国、新加坡、香港、中国。

这儿是 Dr Tee 华语视频（英语视频也已完成，Dr Tee 双语皆行）：

请欣赏鄙作，留言求进步。您可订阅 Dr Tee Youtube （Ein Tee）频道，链接未来教育视频。双红利：

1) Dr Tee 免费投资课程与电子书下载:
www.ein55.com

2) Dr Tee 9堂网上价值投资策略课程 ($100, Ein55 会员获得75%折扣，只需$25, 可全家分享):
https://www.investingnote.com/store/products/discover-giant-stocks-value-investing-strategies

Filed Under: Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: 环球股灾, 股市, 良机

Uphill Task to Invest in Stock Market Crisis

Posted on March 18, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

When Dow Jones Index drops below 20000 points during intra-day today (quickly recover above it, although may fall below again in near future), this is about last 3 years low. This implies an investor is saving 3 years of investing time if investing in current level. So, when one could invest in last 10 years low for a major stock index (eg. US S&P 500 or Dow Jones Index), it means the crisis helps one to “jump queue”, saving 10 years of waiting time.

So, when looking backward, history does help one to decide the entry and exit, especially the stock market cycle which could be 5 to 10+ years long. Current bull for global/US stock market (Mar 2009 – Mar 2020) is 11 years, the longest in the history of stock market so far, after US stock market lost more than 1/3 of market cap so far, Dow Jones Index falls from nearly 30000 to 20000 points in 1 month. Despite a bear market is confirmed, this is not yet low optimism < 25% based on Ein55 styles, only a mid-size bear so far.

However, the waiting time has to include the fall + recovery again, therefore some investors prefer to wait till the uptrend phase before entry which is easy to miss the boat (1 chance left) when an entry price is not defined. If an investor enters as contrarian approach first, there are at least 2 chances: fall below the desired entry price and again above the entry price after a period of waiting.

Ein55 members, please plan your entries, how many bullets to use: 1 shot or multiple shots. Don’t end up no shot at all when the game is over.

Learn from Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to plan for your “bullets” to shoot, investing in stock market with LOFTP (Levels 1-4, Optimism 0-100%, Fundamental – Strong/Weak, Technical – Up/Down, Personal – Trade/Invest) Strategies to leverage on current global stock market crisis. Register Here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Market Optimism, Personal Analysis, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: Dow Jones Index, S&P 500, stock market crisis

When will be End of Coronavirus Pandemic & Stock Crisis?

Posted on March 16, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

There is a repeatable pattern in global Coronavirus life cycle, although cycle duration and magnitude of peak.

China cases has nearly ended (Dec 2019 – Mar 2020), peak was end of Feb as projected in earlier analysis, would nearly end by Mar 2020. China is the first country to start, also the first country to end. So, experience of China (first country to start and end) is useful reference for other countries.

All the world with individual country cases are recorded here (paying attention to max new daily cases, when it is reached, would take about 1 month to reach the 95-99% peak of total cases, then another 1 month to fade away) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Similar to stock investment and trading, if there are proven methods in the past 100 hundred years (eg. Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis), one could master them first, then gradually refine the strategies.

Korea epidemic is about 1 month behind China (subsiding from the peak, projected by end of Mar 2020), possible duration of Jan-Apr 2020.

This shows that if similar effort is put in (eg. active intervention by local government), the Coronavirus cycle may be about 4 months (2-3 months to reach a peak, 1-2 months to subside).

US and Europe is located further (require international flights to spread the Coronavirus), about 2 months after China pattern, active infection period could be Feb-May 2020 (reaching a peak by end of Apr 2020, fading away in May 2020). US was slow initially, now has started active intervention, possible to follow the 4 months duration. Each year, there are over 100 thousands American die of common flu but many are elderly people with weaker immune system. However, Coronavirus could also kill younger age people younger (mostly more than 40 years old), therefore many people are fearful of this unknown virus.

However, a few countries (eg. UK and Sweden) may not prepare to fight the Coronavirus actively, just let the nature takes its course, likely the peak cases will be more severe in the first 2 months (eg. Iran or Italy cases without active intervention in the first 1 month) with method of community immune system (hoping virus would end naturally or evolve into less deadly strain with many times of infection when over 60% people are infected). So, the duration of this new method of “no invention” as solution is yet to be observed, will be a useful reference for future epidemic but it comes with big price (many death) if it does not work (eg. fatality rate is much severe than common flu).

For Singapore and some countries (eg. Southeast Asia: Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, etc), spreading of Coronavirus is slower initially (could be due to warmer weather), but due to cross-infection by travelers of inter-countries (eg. Europe / US / Southeast Asia), start to grow in new cases. Therefore, even with active government control, duration could be longer (but lower peak), period could be 5 months (Jan – May 2020), ending in each country depends on when global pandemic may end unless the country could be totally isolated from the rest of the world (eg. Australia and New Zealand measures of isolating all international travelers for 14 days upon arrival).

Of course, if the last continent, Africa, may also be infected badly, then global pandemic could only end with Mar-June 2020, until all countries have gone through 1 cycle of 4 months infection within the country.

However, even the pandemic may end in summer (Jun-Aug 2020), it may come back as new strain of virus in the next winter (Dec 2020) in another unexpected country or city. So, vaccine development is still key. Last time SARS in 2003 ended too fast in summer, on-going vaccine development was stopped, otherwise it could be modified for Coronavirus as both belong to the same family of viruses.

Global stock markets experienced a minor correction (10% correction) during initial fear of Coronavirus, following by major correction (20% drawdown) when spreading is growing globally as pandemic. Under the worst case, if Coronavirus remains serious beyond this summer, coming back in new cycle of life in next winter, then global financial crisis would be waiting. Therefore, fighting against Coronavirus is not just for health (life), also for wealth later. Without health (life), then wealth is meaningless.

When Coronavirus pandemic and stock crisis are almost game over, it is time to master stock investment skill to improve quality of life in future, learning from free 4 hour investment course by Dr Tee here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Outlook, Personal Analysis, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: coronavirus, pandemic, stock market crisis

Strategies for Gold & Silver Trading and Investing

Posted on March 15, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Gold and Silver are popular precious metals for commodity trading. However, they are no longer effective hedging tools against market fear (eg. inflation or uncertainty), when common pool of investors are fearful of stock market, especially during global financial crisis, commodity market (including gold, silver, crude oil, etc) would fall as well.

Over the long term, gold and silver move in similar mega direction for price trends. They have more unique mega market cycle of 30 years (dual peaks in 1980s and 2010s), therefore longer term investor of gold and silver must know their optimism level to lower the systematic risk due to market cycle. Both gold and silver have crashed in year 2013, after reaching the 30 years mega peak.

From investing point of view, despite gold and silver relatively at moderate optimism in long term but when global commodity market (eg. crude oil) and stock market are falling, the fear from similar group of investors may correct the gold and silver prices.

Relatively, gold and silver also have relative competition, maintaining gold/silver price ratio of about 20 to 100 over the past 50 years. Currently, gold/silver ratio is near to the historical (50 years) peak of 100, implying gold has more downside relative to silver. Some smart investors apply the spreading (20-100) of gold/silver ratio for trading, eg

1) Sell Gold Buy Silver

when gold/silver ratio is crossing below 80

2) Buy Gold Sell Silver

when gold/silver ratio is crossing above 40

After the major correction, since Year 2016, Gold has been bullish for the past few years, suitable for momentum trading to buy high sell higher. In the same period, Silver is also recovering but more cyclic in nature (silver is as if a more cyclic “penny stock” while gold is a more stable “blue chip”), suitable for swing trading over the past few years.

From trading point of view, gold has higher risk of falling for short term to mid term as gold prices are falling below US$1550/oz, the neckline of double top at high optimism (crossing below 75% optimism around $1600 was an earlier signal for exit for trading).

Unlike stock, gold and silver are pure trading tools, no business fundamental behind. So, follow Technical Analysis to position if interested. Gold has to break higher than US$1600 to resume the uptrend, therefore traders may wait if there is a reversal.

Long term trend for silver is similar to gold but short term silver is much weaker in price strength compared with gold. Currently both gold and silver are under shorting pressure due to short term bearish signals.

There are several major investment markets (commodity – eg gold / silver, stock, property, forex, bond, bitcoin, etc) with unique market cycles but they share 3 universal formula to make money from investing or trading:

1) Buy Low Sell High (Cyclic Investing)

2) Buy Low & Hold (Growth Investing)

3) Buy High Sell Higher (Momentum Trading)

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 members.

Filed Under: Commodity Market, Market Outlook, Technical Analysis, Trading Tagged: commodity, gold, investment strategies, market outlook, silver, technical analysis, trading

99% Peak of Coronavirus on 22 Feb 2020 (World vs SG) with SWOT Analysis as Stock Investment

Posted on February 24, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Based on the latest Coronavirus data until 23 Feb 2020 (see 3 charts below), we have seen the first positive sign of 99% Peak for World vs Singapore is achieved:

World: 749 new cases of total 79400 cases = 0.9% < 1%

SG: 0 new case of total 89 cases = 0% < 1%

This implies that the first possible peak (assuming 99% of cases have occurred, <1% for daily new cases) is achieved on 22 Feb 2020 (# new daily cases was 1.2% for world, 3.4% for Singapore, before falling below 1% criteria on the next day). Interestingly, the date of 99% peak was aligned perfectly with my first video published on 11 Feb 2020 to project on estimated peak of 22 Feb 2020

The analysis was disturbed by the change in diagnosis method by China Hubei, which was further finetuned in second video, confirming by Technical Analysis on the current bearish trend for # new Coronavirus in World & Singapore, projected 99% Peak by end of Feb 2020 (25 Feb 2020 to be exact)

From statistics point of view, from 99% peak, there will be still <1% new daily case for a period of time. It may take another 1-2 months for the virus spreading to reach 100% peak (eg. 0 new daily case for at least 14 days based on incubation period). This assumes no second wave of infection (eg. workforce back to work, new major outbreaks in certain countries) which may not be true, therefore requiring further monitoring, eg. checking if # cases in World and Singapore still <1% (eg <=800 cases for World, <=1 case for Singapore) . If more than >1%, is it below the critical support (2000 cases for World, 2 cases for Singapore)? It means the 99% Peak may be subjective to unknown conditions in future but it is a positive signal to see the first 99% Peak on 22 Feb 2020.

SWOT Analysis

So, does it mean the threat of Coronavirus is confirmed over for World and Singapore? It may not be 100% as the Technical Analysis is based on past statistics over a probability (eg. 99% peak). Similar to investment, past may not be repeated exactly in future (eg. SARS cases may not be exactly the same to guide Coronavirus COVID-19 cases, past 1 month of trend in # cases may not be continued for next 1 month, etc), although the downtrend so far is consistent with projected earlier but still need to monitor for possible reversal (eg. second wave of infection in World or Singapore).

Statistical Analysis (including Technical Analysis) is quantitative but lagging based on the past, assuming certain connection between past and future.

Similar to stock investment, it is important to perform SWOT (Strength / Weakness / Opportunity / Threat) Analysis to “see” the future but in a qualitative way.

S (Strength)

Strong awareness among the countries in the world to implement various measures, eg. reducing flights, stricter local isolation, quicker diagnosis and medical help, etc. This helps to minimize spreading of Coronavirus globally and locally.

W (Weakness)

People may not follow the rule. Eg. 1 person (super spreader) in South Korea could infect about 200 others. Just 1 loophole in the system could result in collapse of entire system. Each country just needs 1 case, eg. the first case of infection in China (mess up with wild life?), the first case of infection in Singapore (tourist from Wuhan), etc.

O (Opportunity)

With higher temperature from Winter to Spring, # cases globally could reduce gradually, may end completely (100% peak) before the hot summer.

Great fear in COVID-19 may start a health revolution globally which could help to prevent other future more deadly viruses and reduce # death of current diseases (eg. seasonal flu).

T (Threat)

The World data is mainly >90% based on China cases. 1 case in Wuhan could affect entire China, Singapore and the world. Similarly, 1 case could start in any country or city which is unprepared or take it lightly. Currently, there are 3 potential “Wuhan” model in Korea Daegu, Japan (from cruise Diamond Princess) and Italy Lombardy, with exponential growth observed. If uncontrolled, these mini Wuhan could spread like wild fire, just need 1 case and ignorant mass to start the spreading.

Singapore is well recognized as Best in many areas in the world, including dealing with Coronavirus crisis. However, even if Singapore could totally stop the virus to 0 case with over 14 days, the potential threat in future is there as Singapore in an international city with so many global tourists coming to Singapore (Singapore people also likes to travel to other countries). So, the Coronavirus threat could only end in Singapore when the World has no new case, absolute 0.

4 Types of Dr Tee (Ein55) Investment Education Programs

These are 4 different investment programs by Dr Tee (either free or low cost), each program has its training goal:

1) 6-day Ein55 course (meet-up) – low cost (contact Dr Tee for special rates)

– most complete training for 55 Ein55 styles, both methods and practical (homework) on stock investment

– www.ein55.com/course

2) Online course (How to Discover Giant Stocks) – $100 (75% discount, only sold at $25 now)

– focus in 3 value investing strategies (also taught in 6 day Ein55 course, equivalent to about 50% of Fundamental Analysis Section)

– permanent video by investingnote, can be shared within family members, suitable for learning from home or overseas (outside Singapore)

– https://www.investingnote.com/store/products/discover-giant-stocks-value-investing-strategies

3) Video courses (various topics) – Free

– different length (eg. 30-70 min) on various topics (eg. global stock market outlook) under Youtube Channel Ein Tee

ht tps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEdKIPAtDx8wp3bWubMtdDw

4) Monthly 4-hr Ein55 courses (meet-up) – Free

– monthly workshop for general public in Singapore to learn 10 strategies of investing and trading

– content different from online course, an introduction of Ein55 investing styles with applications of LO-FTP (Level, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical, Personal) Analysis

– www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: coronavirus stock market, swot analysis

Dr Tee Free Course – Global Stock Market Outlook with Coronavirus Technical Analysis

Posted on February 21, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Crisis is Opportunity, Dr Tee has used the valuable rest days to produce more online courses. After a few days of effort, here is brand new Dr Tee Free course for Ein55 Reader on Global Stock Market Outlook (World, US, Singapore, Hong Kong, China) with Coronavirus Technical Analysis.

Here is English Version of Ein55 Video Course (Chinese version is available as Dr Tee is bilingual): https://youtu.be/NPalzYPNodU

Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Ein55 youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Ein55 video talks. 2 Bonuses:

1) Dr Tee 9-modules Online Course on Value Investing Strategies (75% discount from $100 price for Ein55 members = $25, can be shared with whole family):
https://www.investingnote.com/store/products/discover-giant-stocks-value-investing-strategies

2) Dr Tee Free 4hr course (meet-up) and 2 investment eBooks Download:
www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis

2 Free eBooks by Dr Tee (Click to Download)