Technical Analysis Archives - Page 2 of 6

Buy Low Hold Dividend with Global REITS (为善最乐)

Posted on November 16, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In recent 12^thEin55 Charity Course on Global REITs, we have raised fund of $24,000 to help needy families in Singapore. Under the spirit of charity, Dr Tee decides to share 3 Global Giant REITs with opportunities to Buy Low in 3 countries with readers (detailed strategies including Ein55 Optimism levels, Ein55 intrinsic values and Dividend Yield will be shared):

1) Singapore Giant REIT – Keppel DC REIT (SGX: AJBU)

2) Malaysia Giant REIT – Pavilion REIT / PAVREIT (Bursa: 5212)

3) Hong Kong / China Giant REIT – Link REIT (HKEx: 823)

Dr Tee, Ein55 Mentors & Graduates have together organized 12 charity investment courses (REITs in Nov 2015, May 2017, May 2019 and Nov 2021, High Dividend Stocks in Mar 2016, Oct 2017 and Nov 2019, Global Growth Stocks in Apr 2018 and Nov 2020, and Discounted NAV Stocks in Sep 2016, Nov 2018 and May 2021) in the past 6 years, donating net income of around $246,000 to Tzu Chi 慈济 Singapore.

We hope to inspire more Ein55 Graduates to reach out the society, helping others who are in need. More importantly, they have also learned the secrets of making money through investment. When more Ein55 Graduates are successful financially, they could also contribute back to the society to help more people in future.

Singapore and overseas REITs are popular investment for passive income through stable dividend stocks. By law, REITs have to redistribute 90% taxable income (from property rental income) back to shareholders in the form of dividend. Therefore, a retail investor could play the role of landlord of giant property (shopping malls, commercial buildings, hospitals, hotels, etc) with minimal capital (could be less than $1000), saving the hassle to buy/sell property (REIT manager would help), no need to deal with tenants or operations (property manager would help). Singapore REITs are exempted from corporate tax, therefore an Singapore investor could gain extra 1-2% rental or dividend yield compared with overseas REITs.

However, ordinary dividend investors (REIT / non-REIT) collect minimal passive incomes (eg. around 3-10% dividend yield) but long term growth may be limited (eg. Singtel (SGX: Z74) or SPH (SGX: T39)) and there could be high risk of capital loss with junk REIT (eg. Eagle Hospitality Trust (SGX: LIW) which has become bankrupt).

A smarter way of dividend investing is to wait patiently to Buy Low (low Ein55 Optimism during stock crisis) for a portfolio of 10 giant global REITs (or non-REIT dividend stocks) with reasonably strong business, waiting patiently (collecting consistent dividend during winter time of stock) for recovery of REIT with capital growth.

After the fear is fading, besides the minimal dividend yield (typically 3-10%), a smart dividend investor may choose to Sell High (cash out as opportunity fund to wait for next stock crisis to Buy Low again, especially for cyclic stocks including REITs) or hold long term for growth investing (for growth REIT), even possible for lifetime investing (selling one day only when need money or when it is no longer a giant stock based on Dr Tee criteria).

The best time to buy global giant REITs is always during global stock crisis (eg. Year 2020-2021 during pandemic, 2008—2009 during subprime crisis, etc), not only able to maximize the dividend yield (due to lower entry share price), also could have higher potential of capital gains (when market cycle moves from fear in low optimism to greed in high optimism). Global REITS investing is not based on dividend strategy (collect dividends as passive incomes) alone, may be integrated with cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High), growth investing (Buy Low & Hold), swing trading, momentum trading, defensive investing and other Ein55 strategies.

There are thousands of global REITS (started in US a few decades ago, extending to the world, become popular in Asia). However, not all the global REITs listed are giant stocks. A growing business or consistent dividend payment in the past may not be sustainable during COVID-19 period and a REIT may remain lagging in share prices for many years, could end up as a crisis stock. Fundamental Analysis alone is not sufficient, a low PB or low PE or high dividend yield stock may be a value trap as this may be the result of lower share price with weakening businesses. Therefore, deeper analysis is required with LOFTP (Level, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical, Personal Analysis) Strategies.

Let’s learn these 3 global giant REITs in 3 countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong), understanding the business nature, investment clock and unique strategy.

1) Singapore Giant REIT – Keppel DC REIT (SGX: AJBU)

In the internet era with more 5G applications, data usage will be enormous with explosive growth for next decade. So, Keppel DC Reit is positioned nicely to host data storage, collecting consistent growing rental as passive incomes. Keppel DC Reit has nearly 100% business in data center (recently extending to related business such as partnership with M1) while Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U) has about 1/3 businesses in this growing sector. Mapletree Industrial Trust is the largest Data Center REIT in Singapore but share price (near to fair value) currently is not as attractive as Keppel DC Reit, therefore not a focus in this article.

Over the past 5 years, Keppel DC Reit has experienced 3X in share prices from $1 to peak of $3 but the gains is not limited to share price appreciation. Its dividend is doubled every few years, therefore suitable to position as mid-fielder stock to have a balance of both growth (price appreciation) and dividend (passive income).

After reaching 100% Optimism level during peak of pandemic, Keppel DC Reit has experienced slower growth with sector rotation. The prices over the past 1 year has been bearish, declining by about 20%, falling to low optimism <25% currently, creating another rare opportunity for long term investor with dividend yield about 4%. However, due to bearish price trend, it is currently more suitable for contrarian investor who could apply Average Down strategy to minimize the risk of “Buy Low get lower”.

Therefore, similar to many other crisis giant stocks at low Ein55 Optimism level (eg. Top Glove (SGX: BVA / Bursa: 7113), Tencent (HKEX: 700) or Alibaba (HKEX: 9988 / NYSE: BABA)), an investor may need to “Wait” for “crisis” in prices (but strong in business) to Buy Low or entering in several batches, either Average Down or Average Up, eg. wait for next mini rally to Buy slightly Higher (only after uptrend is established for short term, eg when above $2.40-$2.50 resistance for Keppel DC Reit).

Due to defensive business nature of Keppel DC Reit, Ein55 intrinsic value is about $2.80, current price is only about 20% discount (despite low Ein55 Optimism level). It is more suitable for Buy Low and Hold Long Term, collecting 4% dividend yield (potentially doubled every few years). Keppel DC Reit has to grow bigger with more yield accretive acquisitions (eg. recent new REIT in Guangzhou of China) to sustain this high growth with many more global competitors (both demand and supply for data center increase at the same time).

2) Malaysia Giant REIT – Pavilion REIT / PAVREIT (Bursa: 5212)

PAVREIT is a young Malaysia Giant Reit, focusing in retail business. It has high concentration with 80% value in Pavilion KL Mall (second most expensive retail mall after KLCC (Bursa: 5235SS)), therefore business is affected during pandemic with lower property valuation and negative rental reversion.

Over the past 10 years, PAVREIT has doubled its share prices but behaving in a cyclical way, partly due to cyclical retail business and dynamic political economy (changes in regulations) in Malaysia. Its dividend is halved during pandemic, therefore more suitable for cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High) while holding minimal 3% dividend yield.

After reaching high Optimism level before pandemic, PAVREIT has experienced weaker earnings and cashflow, especially after a few yield dilutive acquisition of smaller malls (eg. Damen Mall). The prices over the past 1 year has been bearish, declining by about 30%, falling to low optimism <25% currently, creating good opportunity for medium term investor with dividend yield about 3%. However, it is more suitable for cyclic investor or trader to apply Buy Low Sell High strategy. Average up strategy (need to overcome $1.45-$1.50 resistance to establish short term bullish trend) may be integrated as dividend yield is lower with weaker business (worst of pandemic likely is over), may not suitable to buy for long term (unlike Keppel DC Reit which is possible to average down with strong business).

Due to medium term cyclical business nature of PAVREIT, Ein55 intrinsic value is about $1.70, current price is only about 20% discount (despite low Ein55 Optimism level). It is more suitable for Buy Low Sell High in medium term (a few years), collecting 3% dividend yield while waiting for pandemic recovery in Malaysia for additional capital gains. Political instability and weak economy in Malaysia are potential threats for Bursa stocks, including but not limited to PAVREIT.

3) Hong Kong / China Giant REIT – Link REIT (HKEx: 823)

Link REIT is the largest REIT in Hong Kong and Asia, about 2 times bigger than CICT (SGX: C38U) which is the largest Singapore REIT). It is also the 3^rd largest retail REIT in the world, after Simon Property (NYSE: SPG) and Realty Income (NYSE: O) of US REITs. Link REIT has 80% value in Hong Kong (retail malls and carparks), 20% overseas.

Over the past 10+ years, Link REIT has grown its share prices by 10 times to peak of about $99 before pandemic with support of high growth businesses mainly in Hong Kong. Its dividend is stable during pandemic but high growth is slower (eg. rental reversion is reduced from 20+% in the past to 10+% in recent years), therefore still suitable for growth investing (Buy Low & Hold) while holding 4% dividend yield (would increase over the years with more expansion beyond Hong Kong, especially in mainland China).

After reaching high Optimism level before pandemic, Link REIT has experienced slower growth, price was corrected significantly by about 40% from $99 to about $57. The share price over the past 1 year has gradually recovered from low optimism <25%, despite uncertain political economy (eg. tighter market regulations by China authority) with bearish Hong Kong stock market, creating a rare opportunity for long term investor with dividend yield about 4%.

Link REIT is the most flexible among 3 global REITs discussed in this article, possible to apply either Average Down strategy (similar to Keppel DC Reit with strong business) or Average Up strategy (good price trend in short term). Its potential short term risk (or opportunity) is the bearish Hong Kong stock market which could slowdown its price growth (but little impact on business growth), share prices supported above $70 is a nice balance to consider as common entry point for both long term investors and short term traders, although each may have different price targets for exits.

Due to major correction during pandemic, Ein55 intrinsic value is about $100, current price is about 30% discount (still at low Ein55 Optimism level). Link REIT is an all rounded REIT, may be considered for dividend investing (Buy Low & Hold for dividend growth), cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High), growth investing (Buy Low & Hold for capital gains) or even short term trading (Buy Low Sell high in short to medium terms). However, full mastery of each unique Ein55 investing or trading strategy is critical for ultimate success, especially on when to sell or how long to hold, not just on what to buy or when to buy.

=====================================

Readers may read earlier article by Dr Tee for more details on 100 Singapore Dividend Stocks (REIT / non-REIT):
https://www.ein55.com/2021/03/100-singapore-dividend-stocks-and-reits-for-retirement/

Not all global REITS are giant stocks, some could be junk stocks (eg. making losses or asking investors for reserved passive incomes through rights issues). Even for a giant stock, it requires at least yearly review with Dr Tee criteria to ensure it is still a giant stock or a change in strategy may be required (eg. crisis stock investing with Striker role if there is any potential high risk). Similarly, those stocks which are not highlighted in this article, some could be marginal giant stocks, may obtain the giant stock title one day, which worth longer term investing or trading.

Ideally, a smart investor should form a dream team stock portfolio (striker / mid-fielder / defender) with 10-20 giant stocks from over 3 sectors and 3 countries. REIT sector may contribute 1-2 stocks while it is important to diversify with more sectors (eg. Healthcare, Banking & Finance, F&B, Technology, Oil & Gas, Property / non-REIT, etc).

Since some REITs have overseas business, knowledge of Forex (eg. USD/SGD, SGD/HKD, SGD/MYR, etc) would be critical. A qualified REIT investor should also understand property market cycle, macroeconomy behavior, integrating with dividend investing or growth investing or cyclic / momentum trading.

===================================

There are over 2000 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

View quick preview video below, Dr Tee will introduce 10 key stock investment strategies (股票投资十招) to be learned in 4hr free stock webinar:

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Value Investing Tagged: Charity Course, dividend stock, reit

4 Growth Investing and Momentum Trading Stocks (四大天王)

Posted on August 31, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In this Dr Tee 2hr video education (4 Growth Investing and Momentum Trading Stocks), you will learn:
1) US and Singapore Stock Market Outlook
– Short term, medium term & long term

2) LOFTP Investing Strategies for Growth Investing and Momentum Trading
– Level Analysis (L1 Stock, L1 Sector, L3 Country, L4 World)
– Optimism Analysis (0-100%)
– Fundamental Analysis (Strong / Weak)
– Technical Analysis (Follow-trend / Counter-trend)
– Personal Analysis (Short Term Trading / Long Term Investing)

3) 4 US & Singapore Giant Stocks from 4 Promising Sectors
– US Giant Finance Stock: BlackRock (NYSE: BLK)
– US Giant Technology Stock: Alphabet / Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL)
– Singapore Giant Luxury Stock: The Hour Glass (SGX: AGS)
– Singapore Giant Healthcare Stock: Tianjin Zhongxin (SGX: T14)

4) Long Term Growth Investing vs Short Term Trading Strategies
– Growth Investing (Buy Low & Hold, Long Term)
– Cyclic Investing (Buy Low Sell High, Long Term)
– Momentum Trading (Buy Low Sell High, Buy High Sell Higher, Short Term)

5) Bonus: Discussions on 7 related giant stocks (only for those who view entire 2hr video)
– Hong Kong Technology Crisis Stocks: Alibaba (HKEX: Baba) and Tencent (HKEX: 700)
– US Giant Fund Stock: Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK)
– Singapore Property Crisis Stock: Hongkong Land (SGX: H78)
– Singapore Giant Bank Stocks: DBS Bank (SGX: D05), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11)

Here is Dr Tee Free 2-hr Video Course. Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks.

Dr Tee Video Course: https://youtu.be/5mDIXIsLB3k

Past readers could have profited with over 50% rally in share price if have taken actions during pandemic on similar giant stocks such as BlackRock, Alphabet (Google), The Hour Glass, Tianjin Zhongxin, and many others. No one could change the past but you could still change the future if taking action to learn now!

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Ein55-Website-Post-Event-Register-Bursa.jpg

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: growth stock, momentum stock, Singapore Stocks, US Stocks

Top 5 Factors of Global and Singapore REITs Investing (五星联珠)

Posted on August 20, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In this Dr Tee 1hr video education (Top 5 Factors of Global and Singapore REITs Investing), you will learn:
1) Singapore Stock Market Outlook
– Short term, medium term & long term

2) LOFTP Investing Strategies for REITs Investing
– Level Analysis (L1 Stock, L1 Sector, L3 Country, L4 World)
– Optimism Analysis (0-100%)
– Fundamental Analysis (Strong / Weak)
– Technical Analysis (Follow-trend / Counter-trend)
– Personal Analysis (Short Term Trading / Long Term Investing)

3) 4 Case Studies of Global and Singapore REITs Giant Stocks
– Singapore Giant Reit: CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, CICT (SGX: C38U)
– Singapore Giant Reit: Parkway Life REIT (SGX: C2PU)
– Hong Kong Giant Reit: Link REIT (HKEX: 823)
– US Giant Reit: Equity Lifestyle Properties (NYSE: ELS)

4) 4 REITS Investing Strategies
– Dividend Investing (Buy Low & Hold, Long Term)
– Growth Investing (Buy Low & Hold, Long Term)
– Cyclic Investing (Buy Low & Sell High, Mid / Long Term)
– Momentum Trading (Buy High Sell Higher, Short Term)

5) Q&A with Practical Demo on Global REITs
– Short term & medium term trend-following TA strategies on entry / exit
– Summary on actions in REITs investing

Here is Dr Tee Free 1-hr Video Course. Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks.

Dr Tee Video Course: https://youtu.be/3-5r03LsCPA

For readers who are interested to take actions in 42 Singapore REITs and 16 Business Trusts, may read earlier article by Dr Tee (published in June 2020, one of the best time to invest in REITs during pandemic stock crisis):
https://www.ein55.com/2020/06/42-singapore-reits-16-business-trusts/

Past readers could have profited with over 50% rally in share price if have taken actions during pandemic on similar giant REITs such as Parkway Life REIT, CICT and many others REITs. No one could change the past but you could still change the future if taking action to learn now!

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: dividend stock, reit course, reit investing, Singapore REITs

3 Singapore Bank Stocks (DBS, OCBC, UOB) vs Signature Bank 3X Profits (无名小卒)

Posted on August 5, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Many readers have benefited from Dr Tee past 200 educational articles during pandemic, including making over 50% profits from 3 Singapore major bank stocks: DBS Bank, OCBC Bank and UOB Bank, which continue the strong momentum of prices with growing business.

However, the big money is usually with hidden giant stock (无名小卒), Dr Tee Graduates could see the opportunity 1 year ago in Signature Bank (NASDAQ: SBNY) with 3X potential profits gained so far, outperforming 50% rally of 3 Singapore major bank stocks.

Let’s learn further from Dr Tee on the journey of successes for these 4 giant bank stocks, including how to position in other remaining Top 100 global giant bank stocks. A review of latest financial reports, stock prices, Ein55 intrinsic values and Optimism levels will be given.

With pandemic recovery over the last 1 year, 3 Singapore major bank stocks, DBS Bank (SGX: D05), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39) and UOB Bank (SGX: U11) have recovered both in share prices (50% rally from lower optimism levels to about fair values of mid optimism currently) and also businesses, since Q2/2020 circuit breaker period.

In the recent interim financial reports of H1/2021, all 3 Singapore giant bank stocks continue to report better earnings than the 6-12 months ago, partly due to growing businesses and lower allowance for NPL (Non-Performing Loans), supported by strong Singapore GDP growth (14.3% in Q2/2021), aligned with rapid global economy recovery (US GDP growth by 6.5% in Q2/2021).

Despite lower interest rate income due to lower NIM (Net Interest Margin), overall bank sector businesses (including investment, wealth management, credit card, insurance, etc) are profitable. Despite US treasury bond yield is getting lower over the past few months with less pressure on bank interest rate hike, global bank stocks still have positive outlook because of non-interest rate income is growing more rapidly. Higher global inflation rates may also accelerate the pace of central banks of major economies to increase interest rates which will be favorable to giant bank stocks.

From the table below, we may observe that 3 Singapore major bank stocks have comparable results, all are suitable as mid-fielders for both capital gains and passive incomes (dividend). In fact, they contribute to about 30% of Singapore STI Index, therefore the price trends are generally aligned with STI which is near to fair value of mid optimism level.

4 Giant Bank Stocks	ROE (%)	DY (%)	PB
DBS Bank (SGX: D05)	8.6	2.8	1.5
OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)	7.2	2.5	1.2
UOB Bank (SGX: U11)	6.9	2.9	1.2
Signature Bank (NASDAQ: SBNY)	9.0	0.9	1.9

As expected, MAS recently announced to waive the 60% dividend payment cap of 3 Singapore major bank stocks, implying the potential of dividend yield in FY2021 could be increased by 100/60 = 67%, from current 2.5-3% to 4-5%. This is partially confirmed by recent announcement of interim dividends, back to FY2019 level before pandemic, likely will be higher for next 6 months if higher earnings by end of 2021 as usually 50% earnings (DBS and UOB) will be paid as dividend while OCBC is about 45% dividend payout ratio (more reserves for growth).

This confirmation by MAS is an important news for long term investors who aim for passive incomes, despite the best time to invest in these 3 banks stocks was in the worst time of pandemic during Q2-Q3/2020, eg. OCBC at about $8+/share while DBS and UOB below $20/share, shared by Dr Tee over the past 1 year of free public webinars (www.ein55.com) and articles, action takers could enjoy fruits of 6-7% dividend yield now, on top of over 50% capital gains over the past 1 year of pandemic recovery. This is much better than “safe” investment of keeping money as cash in banks for 0.3% interest rate or even Singapore Savings Bond of 0.5% return for the first year.

Currently, Singapore STI and 3 Singapore bank stocks are showing mid bullish trend but not strong enough for traders. A key trading signal is breakout of 3200 points resistance of STI, requiring support of other 27 STI component stocks. Traditionally, Aug is month for Ex-dividend date of many STI component stocks, therefore if Aug could achieve a monthly positive gain for STI, is a strong signal for DBS Bank, OCBC Bank and UOB Bank.

===================================

Many investors like to invest in bank stocks with BIG names but big size or most famous stock may not always be the best, eg. Hong Kong largest bank, HSBC Bank (HKEX: 0005) is a weak bank stock. Even an investor may run of idea of What to Buy, may refer to earlier Dr Tee article on Top 100 Bank Stocks in the world:

https://www.ein55.com/2021/03/top-100-singapore-and-global-bank-stocks-to-profit/

Both 3 Singapore major banks and Signature Bank (#76 in the long list) are listed as Top 100 Bank stocks. If bank stock interested by reader is not listed, may need to do more in-depth analysis before investing. Signature Bank is comparable in size with 3 Singapore banks but still considered small relative to big names in wall street, therefore gaining little attention from global investors who probably know more about JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) or even weaker bank stocks such as Citi Group (NYSE: C).

Signature Bank is a commercial bank with business mainly in state of New York (USA) and a few other states. So, it is relatively not known to global investors, few Asian investors may know how to invest in this hidden giant stock. Despite the businesses are strong with consistent growth over the past decade, after share prices reaching high Ein55 Optimism level of about $140 in Year 2017, starting to correct to lower optimism, reaching low optimism level of around $70/share during 2020 pandemic, which is 50% discount in share price but value becomes higher each year. The best “crisis” stock is when value is doubled but price is halved but few people could bridge between fundamental and technical worlds which needs more insights.

Dr Tee assigned Signature Bank as homework to Ein55 graduates during Aug 2020, possible to enter initially with contrarian investing (average down will falling in share prices) when share price less than $90 or with average up above $100 after the breakout from double bottom (see optimism chart of Signature Bank) or trend-following momentum trading from $100+ to $200+ in a few months. Even for long term investor (Buy & Hold), Signature Bank has grown over 12 times in share prices over the past 2 decades but it requires strong control of emotions, especially to hold through global financial crisis with significant price correction.

In Jan 2021 Ein55 Graduates Gathering Webinar, Dr Tee shared this giant stock again, despite at around $140, the stock continues to surge till high Ein55 Optimism of $255/share, potential 2 to 3 times profits for those who could Buy at Low Optimism (below $100) and Sell at High Optimism (about above $200). In July 2021 Ein55 Gathering Webinar, Dr Tee has shared another healthcare giant stock which has surged over 20% in 1 month since then (will be reported in future).

There is little “luck” in stock investment, each of the fruit of investment is action taking by readers who could take calculated risks, applying strategy aligning with own personality. A real trader and investor has to take further action: Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait or Shorting with independent thinking. Without action taking, a reader is only a ‘knowledge collector”, knowing why or how but could not generate any profit.

Many investors know the secret of making money is Buy Low Sell High but if purely based on price action (i.e. Technical Analysis), the probability of success may not be high, especially Buy Low may Get Lower. Success in Signature Bank requires integration of Ein55 styles of investing, especially with LOFTP Strategies: Level, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical and Personal Analysis, sharing regularly in hundreds of Dr Tee educational articles in the past decade.

Unlike 3 Singapore major banks, Signature Bank is more suitable for cyclic investing (then become momentum trading) with support by strong growing businesses. Since the current share prices have reached high optimism level with sideways share prices, potential traders may need to wait for stronger signal or consider other Top 100 global bank stocks in earlier list, some still have over 50% upside potential of share prices.

Bank stocks are cyclical in nature, therefore the best time to invest in a giant bank stock is usually during the recovery phase from global or regional financial crisis. Even an investor may miss the last 1 year of pandemic stock crisis to Buy Low Sell Fair Price, not to miss the next few years with opportunity for giant bank stocks moving from fair prices to greedy prices at high optimism levels. After that, the next Black Swan would wait to reset the global stock market again with a new Global Financial Crisis, usually over 50% discount in stock indices. Instead of waiting for sky to fall down one day (wasting the opportunity cost of time which could be several years), a more practical approach is to apply trend-following strategy to ride the uptrend of global giant stocks during bullish stock market.

There are many other global giant stocks prepared to surge with pandemic recovery, are you ready to become their business partners as a stock investor?

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: bank stock, dbs bank, dividend stock, growth stock, US Stocks

Free Ride on 10 Singapore Bull Market Stocks (牛市顺风车)

Posted on June 25, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In this Dr Tee 1.5hr video education (Free Ride on 10 Singapore Bull Market Stocks), you will learn:
1) Singapore and Malaysia Stock Market Outlook 2021/Q3
2) Long Term Investing on 3 Singapore Giant Stocks:
– The Hour Glass (SGX: AGS)
– Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92)
– Raffles Medical Group (SGX: BSL)
3) Short Term Trading on 3 Singapore Giant Stocks:
– PropNex (SGX: OYY)
– Union Gas Holdings (SGX: 1F2)
– Cortina Holdings (SGX: C41)
4) Bonus Stock Diagnosis for Audience Q&A on 4 Singapore Giant Stocks:
– Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings (SGX: BS6)
– Tuan Sing Holdings (SGX: T24)
– OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)
– Wilmar International (SGX: F34)

Learners of earlier Dr Tee videos could have profited with over 50% rally in share price if have taken actions during pandemic on similar giant stocks such as The Hour Glass, Cortina, Union Gas, OCBC, etc. No one could change the past but you could still change the future if taking action to learn now!

Here is Dr Tee Free 1.5-hr Video Course (suitable for bilingual learners: verbal presentation in Chinese, written notes in English, technical charts for everyone). Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks.

Dr Tee Video Course: https://youtu.be/WCciuIn88uI

在这Dr Tee 1.5小时教育视频（10只新加坡牛市股票顺风车），您可学习：
1）新加坡与马来西亚2021/Q3股市展望。
2）三只长期投资的新加坡强股
– 欧佳时 The Hour Glass (SGX: AGS)
– 泰国酿酒 Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92)
– 莱佛士医疗 Raffles Medical Group (SGX: BSL)
3）三只短期交易的新加坡强股
– 博纳产业 PropNex (SGX: OYY)
– 优联燃气 Union Gas Holdings (SGX: 1F2)
– 高登 Cortina Holdings (SGX: C41)
4）现场观众问答环节，四只新加坡强股分析:
– 揚子江船業 Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings (SGX: BS6)
– 传慎控股 Tuan Sing Holdings (SGX: T24)
– 华侨银行 OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)
– 丰益国际 Wilmar International (SGX: F34)

错过Dr Tee之前教导，猛涨过50%的强股 （欧佳时、高登、优联燃气、华侨银行）？往者不可谏，来者犹可追，现在开始学习投资！

这儿是 Dr Tee 免费1.5小时华语课程（适合双语学员：华语表达，英语讲义，图表皆通）。请欣赏鄙作，留言求进步。您可订阅 Dr Tee Youtube 频道(Ein Tee)，链接未来投资视频。

Dr Tee 华语视频: https://youtu.be/WCciuIn88uI

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Value Investing Tagged: momentum stock, Singapore Market, video education

Top 10 Global Luxury Giant Stocks (纸醉金迷)

Posted on June 5, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

We may still remember the Malaysia 1MDB news a few years ago on millions of ringgit worth of luxury products (handbags –Bijan / Hermes / Gucci, jewelry, watches – Rolex / Patek Philippe) discovered as “gifts” to a lucky family. In fact, smart investors could profit from these luxury products in a legal way with stock investing, leveraging on global rich people with extravagant spending.

In this article, you will learn from Dr Tee on Top 10 Global Luxury Giant Stocks of 4 Countries for longer term investing and / or short term trading with COVID-19 recovery stock rally. Bonus for readers who could read every word of the entire article, learning unique strategy to position in each giant luxury stocks, including Ein55 Optimism level and Ein55 Intrinsic Value.

1) France Giant Luxury Stock: LVMH (EPA: MC), Hermes (EPA: RMS), Kering (EPA: KER)

2) US Giant Luxury Stock: Estee Lauder (NYSE: EL), PVH (NYSE: PVH)

3) Singapore Giant Luxury Stock: The Hour Glass (SGX: AGS), Cortina Holdings (SGX: C41)

4) HK Giant Luxury Stock: Chow Tai Fook (HKEx: 1929), Chow Sang Sang (HKEx: 116), Luk Fook (HKEx: 590)

Stocks with luxury products (eg. branded handbags, expensive gold jewelry, luxury watches, etc) are consumer discretionary stocks (纸醉金迷), usually following the economic cycle, very bullish during bull run (eg. last 1 year of pandemic recovery), very bearish during global financial crisis (eg. Q1 of 2020 pandemic, 2008-2009 subprime crisis, etc). Therefore, mastery of investment clock would help on cyclical luxury stocks to Buy Low Sell High.

However, there are some growth luxury giant stocks which are suitable with Buy Low and Hold long term strategy due to the fact that rich would become richer (sadly to say, may imply poor become poorer, especially those who don’t know investment, depending only on active income from 1 job) when global financial crisis is over. Therefore, the luxury product businesses of growth giant stocks could continue to grow for many decades, especially having a strong intangible asset of famous brands (status of rich people who are willing to pay more).

During COVID-19 pandemic, most luxury stocks suffer in businesses mainly due to temporary lower spending power of rich people and limited tourists who could be main customers in the past. With pandemic recovery (over last 1 year and likely for next 1 year) and availability of online purchases, both businesses and share prices of giant luxury stocks have been growing steadily. When international borders are fully opened one day after global vaccination of COVID-19, the business growth would be accelerated.

A giant stock may not need to be big in size, even a small company could be a giant stock. There are hundreds of luxury stocks globally but some could be junk stocks, Buy Low may become lower in share prices with declining businesses. Let’s study Top 10 Global Giant Luxury Stocks (following Dr Tee criteria), some are recovering from lower optimism in 4 global stock exchanges interested by readers:

1) France Giant Luxury Stock:

LVMH (EPA: MC), Hermes (EPA: RMS), Kering (EPA: KER)

Asian investors may not familiar with European stock market. In fact, France has the most famous luxury products brands in the world, many giant stocks are listed under Euronext Paris Stock Exchange (EPA) which is accessible to global investors. A smart investor would diversify investment over a portfolio of 10-20 global giant stocks in several countries, which may include No 6 largest economy in the world, France, which is famous for its people creativity (despite may not be as hardworking as Asian people).

LVMH (Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton) is the world largest luxury product, including many famous brands such as Hennessy (wine), LV, Christian Dior, etc. The major shareholder, Bernard Arnault, recently becomes the World No 1 Richest person as LVMH share prices have outperformed No 2 (Jeff Bezos of Amazon) and No 3 (Elon Musk of Tesla). Ein55 Optimism level is over 80%, current price is far exceeding Ein55 Intrinsic value, more suitable with short term momentum trading strategy (Buy High Sell Higher), requiring S.E.T. (Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices) trading plan.

Similar to LVMH, Hermes is also a family owned business but much smaller in business size, famous with luxury handbags (some rich people wives may have no resistance over them, becoming a collector with millions of dollars spent). However, Hermes is a much stronger growth stock than LVMH, business is so good that even LVMH was hoping to acquire it but mission failed many years ago. Ein55 Optimism level is near to 90%, suitable for both growth investing and momentum trading, but ideal entry point may be to wait for a global financial crisis, especially for longer term investors.

Dr Tee discussed both LVMH and Hermes as stock homework with Ein55 graduates about 2 years ago, even with over 30% share price correction during pandemic crisis, both stocks have achieved 70% potential gains so far. Both are excellent examples of growth stock investing, even if an investor did not sell during global stock crisis, growth giant stocks could recover faster to achieve a new high in future. The main enemy of an investor is usually oneself, especially when a giant stock with growing business is significantly corrected in share prices due to market fear.

Kering is No 4 largest luxury stock in the world, famous of brands such as Gucci, Yves Saint Laurent, etc. Kering is also strong in business but slower growth compared to Hermes and LVMH, more suitable with Buy Low Sell High strategy. Ein55 Optimism level is near to 80% with pandemic recovery, more suitable for short term trading.

In fact, short term performance of LVMH, Hermes and Kering are comparable (currently bullish trends) and aligned due to similar consumer discretionary sector (Level 2) and same country (Level 3). For both short term trading and long term investor, Level Analysis would help to improve probability of success, knowing the unique market cycles (bull / bear) of each sector and country.

Readers may read earlier article by Dr Tee for more details with Top 10 World Richest Persons stocks including LVMH:
https://www.ein55.com/2021/02/top-10-world-richest-giant-stocks/

2) US Giant Luxury Stock:

Estee Lauder (NYSE: EL), PVH (NYSE: PVH)

Estee Lauder is world No 2 largest luxury stock, famous of beauty products (cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, etc). It may be relatively easier to make money from ladies than men, therefore in a typical department store, men section is usually much smaller than lady section, mainly to maximize the business revenue.

Therefore, Ester Lauder is comparable with LVMH, also strong growth in business and share prices, recovering well after the correction during pandemic. Ein55 Optimism level is over 70%, more suitable for short term momentum trading, similar strategy as LVMH and Hermes.

PVH is world No 10 largest luxury stock, famous of brands such as Calvin Klein, Van Heusen, Tommy Hilfiger, etc. However, PVH business is affected much more than other giant stocks, was making a loss during 2020 pandemic year, recovery is also slower. PVH is more cyclical in nature, may be considered with Buy Low Sell High strategy. Ein55 Optimism level is still moderate low near to 30%, aiming for Ein55 Intrinsic Value of $170.

Despite global luxury giant stocks are from different countries, there is an alignment globally (Level 4) in businesses and share prices, especially with more online purchases without travelling, people from country A may purchase a luxury product from country B easily. Consumer discretionary sector with luxury products would follow economic cycles, higher growth during bullish economy, slower growth (or declining) during bearish economy.

Readers may read earlier articles by Dr Tee for more details of other US Giant Stocks:
https://www.ein55.com/tag/us-stocks/

3) Singapore Giant Luxury Stock:

The Hour Glass (SGX: AGS), Cortina Holdings (SGX: C41)

Hour Glass and Cortina are competitors, having very similar businesses, mainly in sales of luxury watches (eg. Rolex, Patek Philippe, Hublot, etc). For regular followers of Dr Tee education articles and videos (www.ein55.com/blog), you would not miss these 2 Singapore luxury giant stocks, Hour Glass and Cortina, at lower Ein55 Optimism levels when sharing during last 1 year of pandemic.

Both giant stocks are strong growth in businesses (cash rich companies), not significantly affected during pandemic (despite fewer tourists to Singapore). However, the strategy to position is very different for each stock. Hour Glass was having more discount a few months ago, when share price was near to 80 cents, Dr Tee discussed as stock homework with Ein55 graduates, also shared in earlier articles with readers, indicating Ein55 Intrinsic Value of $1.20 which is achieved recently, having 50% potential profits in a few months for readers who do own homework and take actions decisively. Despite the current price is near to its fair value, there is potential of higher price of over $1.60 if Hour Glass could attract institutional investors or supported by market greed to higher optimism level as its competitor, Cortina.

Cortina has much higher Ein55 Optimism level (over 90% currently), therefore the positioning over the past few months has been short term momentum trading, following trends to Buy High Sell Higher. Cortina is relatively an illiquid stock with less stock trading volume, therefore it could be very volatile (+/-10% price movement) on certain days. For stock analysis, instead of daily chart (certain days having 0 trading volume), it is clearer when viewing with weekly or monthly chart. Price trends of Cortina and Hour Glass are generally aligned but Cortina has appreciated much more than Hour Glass over the past 1 year.

For medium to long term investor, Hour Glass may be relatively more suitable than Cortina as Hour Glass has higher dividend yield (3-5%, depending on entry prices) and lower Ein55 Optimism level than Cortina. Recently, Hour Glass doubles the interim dividend from 2 cents (last year) to 4 cents (this year), higher dividend has helped to push up the share prices to a new historical high, also motivating Cortina to follow the same price trends. There is also good succession plan, Hour Glass business is passed from Henry Tay to his son (Michael Tay) who has been well trained in this luxury watch industry. So, a luxury watch may be a collection for decades but a smart investor may own “thousands” of watches by investing in Hour Glass or Cortina.

Hour Glass is 2 times larger than Cortina based on market cap but both are considered medium cap stocks, therefore may not be in the radar of institutional investors yet. Cortina has acquired Sincere Watch recently, business size is considered No 2 after Hour Glass for luxury watch market in Singapore. To benefit from the entire luxury watches market, major shareholder of Hour Glass, Henry Tay, is also the second largest shareholder of Cortina, which is a competitor of Hour Glass. A smart investor may learn from Henry Tay, sometimes may invest in a few competing giant stocks of any sector of interest If they are equally good.

For small or medium cap giant stock, it is easier for share prices to move up (or down) as shares are exchanging hands within a smaller group of investors, especially when majority of shares are controlled by a few major shareholders. For example, major shareholder of Hour Glass, Henry Tay, recently adding a small percentage of own shares (known insider trading) but this is sufficient to support Hour Glass above $1/share. A smart investor would diversify over a portfolio of giant stocks with small cap <$100M (higher potential), medium cap $100M – $1B (good balance of potential and stability) and large cap >$1B (more stability).

Readers may read earlier articles (during pandemic with lower Ein55 Optimism level) by Dr Tee for more details with Singapore Growth Stocks including Hour Glass and Cortina:
https://www.ein55.com/tag/growth-stock/

4) HK Giant Luxury Stock:

Chow Tai Fook (HKEx: 1929), Chow Sang Sang (HKEx: 116), Luk Fook (HKEx: 590)

Before pandemic, some readers who travel often to Hong Kong may remember these famous jewelry shops along shopping streets: Chow Tai Fook (周大福), Chow Sang Sang (周生生) and Luk Fook (六福), which are all giant luxury stocks, making money from both local residents and overseas tourists. However, there are many luxury stocks (jewelry, watches, etc) listed in Hong Kong Stock Exchange, not all are giant stocks.

Businesses of all these 3 Hong Kong luxury giant stocks were affected, not only during the last 1 year of pandemic. In fact, even before pandemic, despite growing gold price since Year 2015, jewelry market in Hong Kong has been declining over the years, partly because the number of mainland China tourists to Hong Kong is declining with local political differences. The activists in Hong Kong over the past few years (before pandemic) have further slowdown the demand of this luxury product market.

After the enhancement of local Hong Kong law against potential activists, these 3 luxury giant stocks have started to grow gradually in businesses, supported by pandemic recovery. These 3 giant stocks have very similar trends in businesses (same sector) and share prices (same stock market) in short to medium terms. Relatively, Chow Tai Fook (world No 9 largest luxury stock) is the strongest among 3 stocks on business recovery during pandemic, short term share price is also more bullish than Chow Sang Sang and Luk Fook.

In general, Chow Sang Sang and Luk Fook are still at low Ein55 Optimism levels (less than 25%), aiming for Ein55 Intrinsic Values of about $30 (Chow Sang Sang) and $60 (Luk Fook) respectively, may be considered for cyclic investing or short term trading. They are average quality of crisis stocks due to relatively weaker businesses. Major leader of sector, Chow Tai Fook, is more suitable for trend-following short term trading.

Readers may read earlier articles by Dr Tee for more details of other Hong Kong Giant Stocks:
https://www.ein55.com/tag/hong-kong-market/

===================================

It is easy to know “Buy Low Sell High” is universal secret to profit in most investment. However, most people dare not buy when share price of giant stocks fall to very low optimism (due to lack of visibility of how low is low). Similarly, some people may not buy when share prices of giant stocks go to very high optimism (despite possible to do short term trading). Eventually, some may buy junk stocks during speculative trading, making money for first few times, losing more in later trading when adding more position due to “confidence” of winning in the past.

It shows the importance for retail investors to master stock trading and investment skills, not only knowing but able to take actions (Buy / Hold / Sell / Wait / Shorting). Readers who could spend time to read until here is an achievement, continue the momentum to learn and apply further in stock investment after mastery of skills.

===================================

There are over 1500 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Value Investing Tagged: growth stock, Hong Kong Market, luxury stocks, US Stocks

100 Singapore Dividend Stocks and REITs for Retirement (有备无患)

Posted on March 5, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Each of us would reach retirement age one day, sooner or later. Life after retirement should be the most meaningful, we could live in our preferred ways, engaging in activities of interests. However, some may not be ready financially, retirement fund is not sufficient to support the longer lifespan, ending up has to continue to work with lower pay or depending on children for financial support.

In this article, you will learn from Dr Tee on 100 Dividend Stocks and REITs in Singapore for Retirement, some may be considered for longer term investing and / or short term trading with COVID-19 recovery stock rally. Bonus for readers who could read every words of the entire article, learning unique strategy to position in 6 giant dividend stocks for both passive incomes (dividend) and capital gains with potential share price appreciation. Both Ein55 Optimism levels and intrinsic values will be shared for each giant stock:

1) Dividend Healthcare Stock: Q&M Dental (SGX: QC7)

2) Dividend Consumer Stock: The Hour Glass (SGX: AGS)

3) Dividend Property Stock: Hongkong Land (SGX: H78)

4) Dividend Technology Stock: ST Engineering (SGX: S63)

5) Dividend F&B Stock: QAF (SGX: Q01)

6) Dividend REIT: Mapletree Industrial REIT (SGX: ME8U)

During the COVID-19 stock recovery, there is a sector rotation with slower or even declining trend for global growth stocks. Investors start to pay more attention to cyclical stocks (eg. banks, properties and oil & gas sectors, etc), especially for those affected companies recovering together with pandemic with stable dividend payments.

Dividend stocks include but not limited to REITs. For REITs, by law, the company has to distribute 90% of rental incomes back to shareholders in the form of dividend. For non-REITs stocks, some companies have clear dividend payment policies (not compulsory) or consistent record in dividend payout. For some blue chip stocks, dividends payment could grow over the decades.

Dividend payment of stocks could be distributed quarterly, half yearly or yearly. A portfolio of 10-20 dividend giant stocks may be established to create a stream of consistent passive incomes, when monthly dividend is more than expenses, one could become financial free this way. The key variables would be initial capital, return (dividend yield, which is dependent on entry price and business performance) and holding period, so customization of strategies based on individual need is required.

The best time to buy a giant dividend stock is always during global stock crisis (eg. Year 2020-2021 during pandemic, 2008—2009 during subprime crisis, etc), not only able to maximize the dividend yield (due to lower entry price), also could have higher potential of capital gains (when market cycle moves from fear in low optimism to greed in high optimism). Dividend stock investing is not for dividend collection alone, may be integrated with growth investing, swing trading, momentum trading, cyclic investing, defensive investing, undervalue investing and other Ein55 strategies.

From the table sorted below for 100 Dividend Stocks and REITS in Singapore, each has growing businesses over the past decade with increasing or reasonable dividends (minimum 2% yield) and positive ROE (Return on Equity), except a few are affected temporarily by pandemic.

However, not all the dividend stocks listed are giant stocks. A growing business in the past may not be sustainable during COVID-19 period, could end up as a crisis stock. Fundamental Analysis alone is not sufficient, a high dividend yield stock may be a value trap as this may be the result of lower share price with weakening businesses. Therefore, deeper analysis is required with LOFTP (Level, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical, Personal Analysis) Strategies.

For Singapore investors, investing in Singapore dividend stocks in SGD can minimize potential forex loss (since SGD is stronger than most foreign currencies), except some stocks trading in USD or having overseas business (eg. Hongkong Land). There are also excellent dividend giant stocks in regional stock markets: Malaysia, Hong Kong or even USA.

No	Dividend Stocks	DY (%)	ROE (%)
1	AEM Holdings (SGX: AWX)	2.1	46.10
2	AIMS APAC REIT (SGX: O5RU)	6.2	5.30
3	AP Oil International (SGX: 5AU)	4.4	4.50
4	Ascendas India Trust (SGX: CY6U)	5.6	9.10
5	Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U)	5	4.80
6	Ban Leong Technologies (SGX: B26)	5	12.80
7	BRC Asia (SGX: BEC)	3.8	7.70
8	CapitaLand (SGX: C31)	2.8	-6.80
9	CapitaLand China Trust (SGX: AU8U)	4.7	3.30
10	CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U)	4.1	2.90
11	Centurion Corp (SGX: OU8)	2.9	17.30
12	Challenger Technologies (SGX: 573)	4.8	19.20
13	China Sunsine Chemical Holdings (SGX: QES)	2	7.60
14	Chip Eng Seng Corporation (SGX: C29)	4.4	-10.00
15	DBS Bank (SGX: D05)	3.2	8.60
16	Delfi (SGX: P34)	5.6	7.70
17	Dutech Holdings (SGX: CZ4)	4.1	6.70
18	ESR REIT (SGX: J91U)	7.5	6.90
19	Excelpoint Technology (SGX: BDF)	7	11.80
20	Far East Orchard (SGX: O10)	5.7	1.60
21	First Reit (SGX: AW9U)	19.8	8.30
22	First Sponsor Group (SGX: ADN)	2.3	6.00
23	Food Empire Holdings (SGX: F03)	2.4	12.30
24	Frasers Centrepoint Trust (SGX: J69U)	3.7	4.00
25	Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU)	5.3	5.30
26	Frencken Group (SGX: E28)	2.5	12.70
27	Great Eastern Holding (SGX: G07)	2.7	10.30
28	GuocoLand (SGX: F17)	3.8	1.00
29	Haw Par Corporation (SGX: H02)	2.4	4.20
30	HoBeeLand (SGX: H13)	4.2	10.80
31	Hongkong Land Holdings (SGX: H78)	4.5	-5.70
32	Hotel Grand Central (SGX: H18)	4	1.5
33	Hotung Investment Holdings (SGX: BLS)	10.1	8.40
34	Hotel Properties (SGX: H15)	3.2	-1.90
35	Hyphens Pharma International (SGX: 1J5)	3.2	14.7
36	IREIT Global (SGX: UD1U)	7.6	6.2
37	Japan Foods Holding (SGX: 5OI)	2.9	-0.60
38	Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07)	4.8	11.00
39	Jardine Matheson Holdings (SGX: J36)	3.3	-0.70
40	Karin Technology Holdings (SGX: K29)	4	1.30
41	Keppel Infrastructure Trust (SGX: A7RU)	6.8	0.00
42	Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU)	3.4	8.10
43	Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U)	5	4.30
44	KSH Holdings (SGX: ER0)	3.5	0.10
45	LHT Holdings (SGX: BEI)	4.8	8.10
46	Lum Chang Holdings (SGX: L19)	15.4	-3.50
47	Lung Kee Bermuda (SGX: L09)	6.9	6.90
48	Manulife US Reit (SGX: BTOU)	8.4	7.70
49	Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU)	3.7	4.10
50	Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U)	4.6	7.40
51	Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U)	4.5	6.10
52	Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (SGX: RW0U)	6.4	4.50
53	MegaChem (SGX: 5DS)	3.8	9.8
54	Meghmani Organics (SGX: M30)	2.6	17.00
55	Metro Holdings (SGX: M01)	2.8	2.10
56	Micro-Mechanics Holdings (SGX: 5DD)	4.1	29.70
57	Nam Lee Pressed Metal Industries (SGX: G0I)	4.7	4.40
58	NetLink NBN Trust (SGX: CJLU)	5.4	6.90
59	New Toyo International Holdings (SGX: N08)	8.6	-4.60
60	Nordic Group (SGX: MR7)	2.3	6.20
61	OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)	2.8	7.20
62	Olam International (SGX: O32)	5.1	9.20
63	Oxley Holdings (SGX: 5UX)	6.3	-25.00
64	Pacific Century Regional Development (SGX: P15)	18.9	-3.80
65	ParkwayLife Reit (SGX: C2PU)	3.4	7.3
66	PNE Industries (SGX: BDA)	8.6	7.60
67	PropNex (SGX: OYY)	4.7	34.40
68	Prudential (SGX: K6S)	2.1	-3.60
69	QAF (SGX: Q01)	5.2	10.40
70	Q&M Dental Group (SGX: QC7)	4.7	15.90
71	Raffles Medical Group (SGX: BSL)	2.3	7.30
72	Riverstone Holdings (SGX: AP4)	2.4	23.30
73	Samurai 2K Aerosol (SGX: 1C3)	2.9	11.20
74	Sasseur Reit (SGX: CRPU)	7.3	6.70
75	Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68)	3.1	39.40
76	Sheng Siong Group (SGX: OV8)	4.1	37.20
77	Singtel (SGX: Z74)	4.5	6.20
78	Spindex Industries (SGX: 564)	2.4	11.50
79	Sri Trang Agro Industry (SGX: NC2)	5	25.00
80	Starhill Global Reit (SGX: P40U)	5	3.90
81	ST Engineering (SGX: S63)	3.8	22.80
82	Straco Corporation (SGX: S85)	4.8	5.30
83	Suntec Reit (SGX: T82U)	5	3.60
84	Tat Seng Packaging Group (SGX: T12)	2.8	12.00
85	Tan Chong International (SGX: T15)	4.9	0.40
86	Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92)	3.3	15.70
87	The Hour Glass (SGX: AGS)	4.4	11.20
88	Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical (SGX: T14)	5	11.20
89	Top Glove Corporation (SGX: BVA)	5.5	60.20
90	UMS Holdings (SGX: 558)	4.5	17.20
91	Union Gas Holdings (SGX: 1F2)	4	34.50
92	United Global (SGX: 43P)	7.1	63.10
93	United Overseas Australia UOA (SGX: EH5)	2.6	4.30
94	UOB Bank (SGX: U11)	3.1	6.90
95	United Overseas Insurance UOI (SGX: U13)	3.1	5.70
96	UOL Group (SGX: U14)	2.3	1.30
97	Valuetronics Holdings (SGX: BN2)	5.7	13.80
98	VICOM (SGX: WJP)	2.8	18.20
99	Wilmar International (SGX: F34)	3.7	8.10
100	Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings (SGX: BS6)	4.2	7.80

Here, let’s focus on 6 Singapore Giant Dividend Stocks in 6 different sectors, learning the unique positioning for each stock:

1) Dividend Healthcare Stock: Q&M Dental (SGX: QC7)

A giant stock may not need to be big in size, true for Q&M Dental, a small cap healthcare stock, which is the largest dental service provider in Singapore. The company business was affected by pandemic during the first half of 2020 due to circuit breaker but quickly regain positive momentum in the second half of 2020. One could postpone certain medical treatments but it is hard to tolerate acute tooth pains, suffering in each day of waiting. Therefore, it is not surprise to see stronger businesses which would help to support higher share prices with recovery of pandemic.

Over the past 5 years, Q&M Dental share price has been declining gradually (not suitable for trading then), partly due to slower growth in company businesses and bearish market sentiment for small cap stocks. During pandemic, its share price dropped to only half of peak price ($0.80+), the lowest was below $0.40. Q&M Dental has been staying below low optimism level (below $0.50) for about 2 years, recently breaking above critical resistance of $0.50, currently at about 40% Ein55 Optimism level, still below the intrinsic value of about $0.70.

Q&M Dental is not only a dividend stock (dividend yield about 4.7%, depending on share price) with long term growth investing, it may also be considered for short term trading due to recent breakout with higher prices, showing potential rally in near future. For trading, it is crucial to have S.E.T. (Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices) in trading plan. For example, if the prices fall back below the support (was resistance) of $0.50, then a short term trader may need to exit, even with losses, if breakout strategy is the main assumption for trading strategy.

Readers may read earlier article of Dr Tee for more details on Q&M Dental.

2) Dividend Consumer Stock: The Hour Glass (SGX: AGS)

The Hour Glass is a consumer discretionary stock with luxury watches businesses (eg. distributors for Rolex, Patek Philippe, Hublot, etc). During the first 6 months of pandemic (Apr – Sep 2020), its business has lower revenue due to fewer tourists to Singapore. With more online sales and lower expenses (stores were closed during circuit breaker), the net profit is not significantly affected.

In fact, The Hour Glass is a strong cash-rich company, cash flow grows by about 10 times over the past 5 years while share price has been staying sideways (below peak price and critical resistance of $0.85), which is a hidden gem of undervalue stock. Recently, the share price has recovered from low optimism level (below $0.80), breaking above $0.85, challenging new resistance of $1, currently over 30% Ein55 Optimism level, still below the intrinsic value of about $1.20.

The Hour Glass is not only a dividend stock (dividend yield about 4.4%, depending on share price) with longer growth investing, it may also be considered for short term trading due to recent breakout with higher prices, showing potential rally in near future. For trading, it is crucial to have S.E.T. (Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices) in trading plan. For example, if the prices fall back below the support (was resistance) of $0.85, then a trader may need to exit, even with losses, if breakout strategy is the main assumption for trading strategy.

Both The Hour Glass and competitor, Cortina (SGX: C41), have similar businesses and even common shareholders (the largest shareholder of Hour Glass, Henry Tay, is also the second largest investor of Cortina, a rare strategy to invest in competitor to have more gains out of the luxury watches market) but Cortina has over 90% Ein55 Optimism level, more suitable for short term trading. Both stocks are “cold” stocks with relatively lower daily trading volume, therefore share price could surge or dip significantly when there are bigger players joining the trading game.

Readers may view earlier educational video by Dr Tee for more details on Cortina.

3) Dividend Property Stock: Hongkong Land (SGX: H78)

Hongkong Land is an undervalue stock with Grade-A commercial properties mainly in Hong Kong, China and Singapore. The “loss” during pandemic in Year 2020 is mainly due to accounting loss, i.e. lower property valuation. However, the cash flow is still stable, therefore able to support the dividend payment each year, including during pandemic.

Over the past 5 years, Hongkong Land share price has declined gradually from peak of $8 to half price, below $4 during pandemic. With recovery of pandemic and bullish market sentiment, its share price has recovered steadily from very low optimism level, suitable for both long term cyclic investing and even short term trading (despite slower momentum, compared with other growth stocks). Current Ein55 Optimism level is still low around 15%, potential upside with intrinsic value of about $9.

Technically, Hongkong Land behaves like a REIT at the moment, generating rental incomes (dividend yield of 4.5%, depending on share price), giving back to shareholders through dividend. It may be positioned as a slow but steady defender with protection by its undervalue asset (Price to Book ratio of 0.3 with 70% discount, assuming discounted asset strategy).

Readers may read earlier article by Dr Tee for more details on Hongkong Land.

4) Dividend Technology Stock: ST Engineering (SGX: S63)

ST Engineering is a Temasek stock (50% shares ownership), having defensive businesses through subsidiaries, eg. ST Aerospace, ST Electronics, etc, in various technological sectors. Despite net profits are affected by pandemic (especially for ST Aerospace), cash flow is still strong for ST Engineering, therefore still able to pay the dividend consistently to reward long term investors.

During pandemic, ST Engineering share price dropped below $3 to low optimism, then recovering to fair value gradually over the past 1 year. The price trends and optimism levels are generally aligned with Singapore stock market since ST Engineering is 1 of 30 STI component stocks.

Over the past decade, ST Engineering is able to pay very consistent dividend (dividend yield of 3.8%, depending on share price), including during pandemic year 2020. However, its dividend growth is limited (same dividend of 15 cents/share for the past 5 years), therefore not an ideal dividend stock for long term investing. It is also a defensive stock with relatively less price volatility compared with entire Singapore stock market, an investor could sleep soundly even during stock crisis. So, its strength of defensiveness may be also a weakness (less upside capital gains) for some investors, depending on personal objectives. Current Ein55 Optimism level is near to 50% with intrinsic value about $4, upside is limited but passive incomes of future dividend would be steady with little surprises.

Readers may read earlier article by Dr Tee for more details on other technology stocks.

5) Dividend F&B Stock: QAF (SGX: Q01)

QAF has bakery business which has excellent performance during pandemic as most people stay longer time at home during this period, therefore eating (bread and other food) at home more often. However, it does not increase the dividend payment for pandemic year 2020, still maintaining at 5 cents per share (about 5.2% dividend yield, depending on share price) for the past 5 years.

QAF is defensive in business but share price is cyclical in nature. After share price falling from peak of about $1.40 to half price (below $0.60), it started to recover with business enhanced by pandemic. Ein55 Optimism level is recovering near to 50% with intrinsic around $1. Due to its cyclical behaviour with uptrend price, besides steady yearly dividend collection, QAF may also be considered for short term trading (especially when breaking convincingly above resistance of $1).

For readers who are interested to eat QAF bread for free for lifetime with a unique strategy, may read earlier article by Dr Tee on 48 F&B stocks including QAF.

6) Dividend REIT: Mapletree Industrial REIT (SGX: ME8U)

Mapletree Industrial Trust (MIT) is also a Temasek stock, an industrial REIT with excellent business fundamental, able to pay growing dividend consistently over the past 10 years. With additional expansion into data center (about 40% of overall businesses), future business growth would be even stronger. When an investor knows “What to Buy”, the remaining key variable is “When to Buy/Sell”.

MIT share price was corrected to 0% Ein55 Optimism (an ideal investing opportunity with very fearful market) during pandemic in year 2020 but quickly recovered to 100% Ein55 Optimism (very greedy stage) in only 6 months. With sector rotation during pandemic recovery, currently MIT share price is under correction, Ein55 Optimism level falling to nearly 50% with intrinsic value around $2.70. Since over 80% REITs in Singapore are bearish in short term trend over the past 1 month, MIT is not yet suitable for short term trading nor long term investing (despite a fair price now).

When there is a chance for MIT to drop to low optimism level again, it would be a good chance to consider this stock for longer term investing. Alternatively, the price has to be stronger to be considered for short term trading with positive price trend. Currently, collection of dividend yield at about 4.6% is insufficient to balance the negative trend of short term prices. “What to Buy” does not means “Now to Buy”, both Technical Analysis (TA) and Fundamental Analysis (FA) have to be integrated with consideration of Ein55 Optimism strategies, including market greed and fear.

Another related sibling Temasek stock is Keppel DC Reit (100% businesses in data center), sharing similar price and optimism behavior, having even stronger business growth but lower dividend yield. So, actions may not be just “Buy”, may also be “Wait”. Opportunity is always for those who could wait patiently but able to take action to buy strong business at low optimism prices when others are fearful (eg. during global financial crisis).

Readers may read earlier article of Dr Tee for more details on entire 42 Singapore REITs and 16 Business Trusts, including Mapletree Industrial Trust and Keppel DC Reit.

===================================

Retirement planning is never too late (有备无患), even one has already retired, still could learn to position on a portfolio of 10-20 dividend giant stocks, integrating with growth investing or momentum trading and other Ein55 strategies (readers can learn from Dr Tee). Dividend yield of 5-10% yearly may seems little to some investors but it is only a bonus, the hidden treasure is potential enormous capital gains with price appreciation over decades, supported by growing and sustainable businesses.

For those who are youngers, need to start saving of capital, converting active income of job salary to passive income of investment (dividends & capital gains). This way, after retirement one day, these business partners of stocks could continue to work and make money for the investor, who just needs to review and rebalance portfolio yearly. The process of stock investing can be lifelong, applying the power of compounding with time to gain more in years or even decades of holding.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar, you could ask on any global and local stocks including but not limited to 30 STI component stocks:

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Value Investing Tagged: crisis stock, dividend stock, growth stock

4 Global Bank Stocks with Vaccine after Phase 3 COVID-19 (苦尽甘来)

Posted on December 14, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Vaccination is started globally and Singapore will enter Phase 3, bringing hope to end COVID-19 pandemic, as well as light at the end of tunnel for global bank stocks in crisis to recover with great discounted prices.

In this article, you will learn from Dr Tee on 4 Global Giant Bank Stocks of 4 Countries for longer term investing and / or short term trading with COVID-19 recovery stock rally. Bonus for readers who could read every words of the entire article, learning unique strategy to position in each giant bank stocks and also generalized strategy for all bank stocks.

1) Singapore Giant Bank Stock: OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)

2) Malaysia Giant Bank Stock: Public Bank (Bursa: 1295)

3) US Giant Bank Stock: Wells Fargo Bank (NYSE: WFC)

4) HK / China Giant Bank Stock: ICBC Bank (HKEX: 1398)

During COVID-19 pandemic, most bank stocks suffer in businesses mainly due to higher NPL (Non-Performing Loan) and very low interest rate. As a result, many global bank stocks prices are significantly corrected to low optimism level. However, “Buy Low” may not able to “Sell High” in future if a bank business is affected permanently.

Therefore, it is crucial to focus only on giant bank stocks for market cycle investing during COVID-19 stock crisis with Buy Low Sell High strategy. In general, most bank stocks would follow the global stock markets to recover in share prices, especially with improvement in bank businesses and stronger global economy after vaccination is implemented in most countries, allowing life back to normal as before COVID-19.

A giant stock may not need to be big in size, even a small company could be a giant stock. Let’s study 4 giant bank stocks (following Dr Tee criteria) recovering from low optimism in 4 stock exchanges interested by readers:

1) Singapore Giant Bank Stock: OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)

OCBC Bank is the second largest bank in Singapore, businesses during pandemic and share prices in short term (V-shape recovery) are generally aligned with DBS Bank and UOB Bank. These Top 3 largest Singapore banks have to set aside provisions to prepare for higher default and NPL. Singapore MAS also requires the local banks to limit the dividend distributions to 60% of last financial year. This has resulted OCBC Bank stock prices to fall by about 40% during COVID-19 pandemic.

There are 30 Banking & Finance Stocks in Singapore including OCBC Bank (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):

AMTD IB OV (SGX: HKB), B&M Hldg (SGX: CJN), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Edition (SGX: 5HG), G K Goh (SGX: G41), Global Investment (SGX: B73), Great Eastern (SGX: G07), Hong Leong Finance (SGX: S41), Hotung Investment (SGX: BLS), IFAST Corporation (SGX: AIY), IFS Capital (SGX: I49), Intraco (SGX: I06), Maxi-Cash Finance (SGX: 5UF), MoneyMax Finance (SGX: 5WJ), Net Pacific Finance (SGX: 5QY), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), Pacific Century (SGX: P15), Prudential USD (SGX: K6S), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), SHS (SGX: 566), Sing Investments & Finance (SGX: S35), Singapore Reinsurance (SGX: S49), Singapura Finance (SGX: S23), TIH (SGX: T55), Uni-Asia Group (SGX: CHJ), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOB-KAY HIAN HOLDINGS (SGX: U10), UOI (SGX: U13), ValueMax (SGX: T6I), Vibrant Group (SGX: BIP).

The uniqueness of OCBC is the optimism level (34%) is relatively lower than DBS and UOB, therefore having more upside potential in medium term when COVID-19 fear is fading with global vaccination and also entering of Phase-3 COVID-19 measures in Singapore, allowing stronger growth in local economy which needs banks services. While waiting for recovery of share prices to fair value, OCBC stock investors could enjoy bonus with 3+% dividend yield (6% if there is no MAS limitation), much higher than bank interest rate less than 0.5%.

Many investors “play safe” during stock crisis by keeping the money as cash deposits in banks, providing nearly free loan for banks to expand business and multiply wealth. A smart investor would carefully select a portfolio of giant stocks (including banks) to leverage on strong business fundamental to grow in share prices.

2) Malaysia Giant Bank Stock: Public Bank (Bursa: 1295)

Public Bank is the third largest bank in Malaysia, businesses during pandemic and share prices in short term (V-shape recovery) are generally aligned with other 34 Banking & Finance Stocks in Malaysia (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):

AFFIN (Bursa: 5185), ABMB (Bursa: 2488), ALLIANZ (Bursa: 1163), AMBANK (Bursa: 1015), APEX (Bursa: 5088), BIMB (Bursa: 5258), BURSA (Bursa: 1818), CIMB (Bursa: 1023), ECM (Bursa: 2143), ELKDESA (Bursa: 5228), FINTEC (Bursa: 0150), HLBANK (Bursa: 5819), HLCAP (Bursa: 5274), HLFG (Bursa: 1082), INSAS (Bursa: 3379), JOHAN (Bursa: 3441), KENANGA (Bursa: 6483), KUCHAI (Bursa: 2186), LPI (Bursa: 8621), MAA (Bursa: 1198), MAYBANK (Bursa: 1155), MBSB (Bursa: 1171), MANULFE (Bursa: 1058), MNRB (Bursa: 6459), MPHBCAP (Bursa: 5237), OSKVI (Bursa: 0053), P&O (Bursa: 6009), PBBANK (Bursa: 1295), RCECAP (Bursa: 9296), RHBBANK (Bursa: 1066), TAKAFUL (Bursa: 6139), TA (Bursa: 4898), TUNEPRO (Bursa: 5230).

Major Banks in Malaysia (Public Bank, Maybank, CIMB Bank, RHB Bank, Hong Leong Bank, etc) have suffered triple crisis over the past few years: economy slowdown during COVID-19 pandemic, low bank interest rate and also political instability. This has resulted Public Bank stock prices to fall by nearly 50% over the past few years, a very significant discount.

The uniqueness of Public Bank is relatively lower optimism level (25%) with stronger business fundamental than other Malaysia bank stocks, therefore having more upside potential in medium term when COVID-19 fear is fading with global vaccination and also less CMCO COVID-19 measures in Malaysia, allowing stronger growth in local economy which needs banks services. While waiting for recovery of share prices to fair value, Public Bank stock investors could enjoy bonus with 2% dividend yield, comparable with bank interest rate.

3) US Giant Bank Stock: Wells Fargo Bank (NYSE: WFC)

Wells Fargo Bank is the third largest bank in USA, businesses during pandemic and share prices in short term (V-shape recovery) are generally aligned with hundreds of Banking & Finance Stocks in US, including JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citi Group (NYSE: C), Blackrock (NYSE: BLK), etc.

Major Banks in US have suffered correction in share prices due to US lockdown in Q2/2020 pandemic and fear of COVID-19 pandemic. This has resulted Wells Fargo Bank stock prices to fall over 50% over the past few years, a very significant discount.

The uniqueness of Wells Fargo is lower optimism level (25%) than the peers but this is the result of weaker businesses in the last few quarters of pandemic. Therefore, Wells Fargo is more suitable for crisis investing, having more upside potential in medium term when COVID-19 fear is fading with global vaccination and also more QE (Quantitative Easing) in US after Joe Biden officially becomes US President on 20 Jan 2021, allowing stronger growth in local economy which needs banks services. While waiting for recovery of share prices to fair value, Wells Fargo Bank stock investors could enjoy bonus with 5+% dividend yield, much higher than the Fed ultra-low interest rate of 0-0.25%.

Since Wells Fargo Bank has relatively weaker business fundamental (despite large in business size), diversification is required for crisis investing in this marginal giant bank stock. In fact, there are other much smaller but stronger fundamental bank stocks in US with similar low optimism level as Wells Fargo Bank but much safer for investing in longer term. A smart investor may consider those state (not national) bank giant stocks, having even more upside potential but mostly are undervalue as they are less well known internationally.

4) HK / China Giant Bank Stock: ICBC Bank (HKEX: 1398)

ICBC Bank is the largest bank in China and the world, businesses during pandemic and share prices in short term (V-shape recovery) are generally aligned with other 14 major bank stocks / H-Shares in Hong Kong (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):

Bank of China Hong Kong (HKEX: 2388), Hang Seng Bank (HKEX: 11), China Construction Bank (HKEX: 939), CM Bank (HKEX: 3968), Chong Hing Bank (HKEX: 1111), Bank of East Asia (HKEX: 23), Bank of Communication (HKEX: 3328), Dahsing Banking (HKEX: 2356), ICBC Bank (HKEX: 1398), Citic Bank (HKEX: 998), Bank of China (HKEX: 3988), Minsheng Bank (HKEX: 1988), HSBC Bank (HKEX: 5), Stanchart Bank (HKEX: 2888).

Major Banks in Hong Kong / China have suffered correction in share prices due to US-China trade war, China lockdown in Q1/2020 pandemic and global fear of COVID-19 pandemic. This has resulted ICBC Bank stock prices to fall nearly 50% over the past few years, a very significant discount.

The uniqueness of ICBC is recovering from lower optimism level (39%), more cyclical than the peers in medium term (every few years) with stable business businesses. Therefore, ICBC is more suitable for cyclic investing, having more upside potential in medium term when COVID-19 fear is fading with global vaccination and also less tension in US-China trade war after Joe Biden officially becomes US President on 20 Jan 2021, allowing stronger growth in local economy which needs banks services. While waiting for recovery of share prices to fair value, ICBC Bank stock investors could enjoy bonus with 6% dividend yield, much higher than current very low interest rates in Hong Kong banks.

There are other giant stocks in Hong Kong / China which are stronger and lower optimism than ICBC Bank, despite smaller in size. In fact, the largest local bank in Hong Kong is HSBC Bank but it is a poor bank stock (non-giant stock with weak fundamental). A smart investor would only consider giant bank stocks, not buying any other bank stocks at historical low prices (a common mistake for beginner investors to buy at “cheap” prices without considering the declining value in businesses), having even more upside potential with much lower risk. Risk management with a portfolio of giant stocks is key for crisis investing, so that “Buy Low” would have higher chance of “Sell High” in future.

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Optimism, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Value Investing Tagged: bank stock, crisis stock, cyclic investing stock

Singapore and Malaysia National Giant Stocks (国庆财股)

Posted on August 9, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Both Singapore and Malaysia celebrate National Day in the month of August. It is timely to share the 4 National Giant Stocks in each country which preserve the national wealth. Learn from Dr Tee on how to position these stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis.

4 Singapore National Stocks:

1) DBS (SGX: D05)

2) Singtel (SGX: Z74)

3) OCBC (SGX: O39)

4) UOB (SGX: U11)

4 Malaysia National Stocks:

1) Maybank (Bursa: 1155)

2) Top Glove (Bursa: 7113) / (SGX: BVA)

3) Hartalega (Bursa: 5168)

4) Public Bank (Bursa: 1295)

Stock market is a hidden way to preserve and grow the national wealth. For Singapore SGX, there are 30 large cap stocks in STI Index (^STI), which can be sorted below by size of market cap (share price x number of shares) with ROE (Return on Equity):

No Name / Market Cap(M) (ROE, %)

1 DBS Bank (SGX: D05) 52304 (12.3)

2 Singtel (SGX: Z74) 38761 (4.0)

3 OCBC Bank (SGX: O39) 38413 (10.3)

4 UOB Bank (SGX: U11) 32687 (11.0)

5 Wilmar International (SGX: F34) 30509 (7.7)

6 Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36) 29865 (9.4)

7 Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37) 22731 ( 6.1)

8 Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92) 15195 (20.1)

9 CapitaLand (SGX: C31) 13844 (8.8)

10 Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U) 12489 (4.8)

11 Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L) 10346 (-0.1)

12 ST Engineering (SGX: S63) 10042 (26.0)

13 Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4) 9830 (6.3)

14 Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68) 9236 (37.9)

15 Hongkong Land USD (SGX: H78) 8635 (0.5)

16 Genting Singapore (SGX: G13) 8204 (8.5)

17 Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U) 8027 (8.2)

18 Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07) 7659 (12.8)

19 Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U) 7490 (10.3)

20 City Development (SGX: C09) 7463 (5.2)

21 CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U) 6937 (9.0)

22 CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U) 6294 (6.0)

23 Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU) 6130 (9.4)

24 Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01) 5897 (26.8)

25 UOL (SGX: U14) 5491 (4.8)

26 Venture Corporation (SGX: V03) 5449 (14.5)

27 YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6) 3801 (10.0)

28 Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96) 3394 (3.1)

29 SATS (SGX: S58) 3017 (10.4)

30 ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52) 2990 (10.2)

It is clear that the Top 4 stocks with the largest market cap in Singapore are DBS (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC (SGX: O39) and UOB (SGX: U11). Company size may not be the right criteria of a giant stock, therefore an investor has to monitor business fundamental changes (especially during COVID-19 pandemic), eg with ROE and other indicators.

For 30 STI stocks, only Singapore Airlines, SIA (SGX: C6L) records losses in last financial year. For 30 STI stocks, COVID-19 has different degrees of impact on near future business. There is also on-going crisis, eg. low optimism crude oil price which affects the Oil & Gas sector, including Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4) and Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), which may take longer time to recover with strong support of sponsor, Temasek.

3 major bank stocks (DBS, OCBC, UOB) in Singapore have contributed to about 1/3 of Singapore stock market. Bank stocks are sensitive to interest rate changes, therefore current low interest rates globally (driven by nearly 0% interest rate by the Fed of US) have reduced the Net Interest Margin (NIM), resulting in lower interest related income. At the same time, Non-Performing Loan (NPL) is increasing during COVID-19, banks have to increase more provision funds to prepare for possible default in loan payment of some countries, including Oil & Gas sector (eg. Hin Leong which has high debt to 3 major banks). As a result, it is not surprised to see bank stocks report poorer quarterly results for Q1 and Q2 / 2020.

MAS has requested 3 major banks in Singapore to cap the dividend payment for FY2020 to maximum of 60% of FY2019. This implies for an average dividend yield of 6%, an investor may only receive 6 x 0.6 = 3.6% for the next 1 year. As a result, 3 major bank stocks were under significant price correction recently (which also affect performance of STI). However, a long term bank stock investor should not consider dividend payment as a criteria to decide on investing. In fact, the share price correction of over 3% in 1 week has compensated for the “loss” of dividend (which is kept as retained earnings in balance sheet, a form of saving for investor, similar to many REITs in Q1 and Q2 / 2020 to preserve cash).

Here is a list of 30 Banking & Finance stocks in Singapore, an investor may focus on 3 major bank stocks:
AMTD IB OV (SGX: HKB), B&M Hldg (SGX: CJN), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Edition (SGX: 5HG), G K Goh (SGX: G41), Global Investment (SGX: B73), Great Eastern (SGX: G07), Hong Leong Finance (SGX: S41), Hotung Investment (SGX: BLS), IFAST Corporation (SGX: AIY), IFS Capital (SGX: I49), Intraco (SGX: I06), Maxi-Cash Finance (SGX: 5UF), MoneyMax Finance (SGX: 5WJ), Net Pacific Finance (SGX: 5QY), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), Pacific Century (SGX: P15), Prudential USD (SGX: K6S), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), SHS (SGX: 566), Sing Investments & Finance (SGX: S35), Singapore Reinsurance (SGX: S49), Singapura Finance (SGX: S23), TIH (SGX: T55), Uni-Asia Group (SGX: CHJ), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOB-KAY HIAN HOLDINGS (SGX: U10), UOI (SGX: U13), ValueMax (SGX: T6I), Vibrant Group (SGX: BIP).

Singtel is also a crisis giant stock in bearish Telco sector (started a few years before COVID-19), an investor who “Buy Low” may get Lower in share price, gaining dividend yield (eg. 5%) but making capital loss (lower share price). Telco business is saturated, economic moat is narrow as most Telco services could be easily replaced by other competitors, therefore profit margin is lower with intense competition not only in local market but also in regional market (Singtel has over 50% revenue from overseas markets).

OCBC, UOB and Singtel are relatively at lower optimism region while DBS is at moderate optimism level. Each giant stock requires different strategy (crisis, cyclic, growth, etc) in positioning, either for short term trading or long term investing.

=====================================

Malaysia Bursa with 30 KLCI (^KLCI) stocks, top 4 giant stocks by market cap has significant changes recently. Maybank (Bursa: 1155) is still the largest but both Top Glove (Bursa: 7113) / (SGX: BVA) and Hartalega (Bursa: 5168) have surpassed Public Bank (Bursa: 1295), mainly due to speculation in stocks during COVID-19 for glove related stocks. Top Glove has dual listing in both Malaysia Bursa and Singapore SGX, therefore the wealth of a nation could be shared by global investors, regardless of nationality.

Here is a list of 30 Malaysia Bursa KLCI Index component stocks which may be considered (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
CIMB (Bursa: 1023) CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BERHAD, DIALOG (Bursa: 7277) DIALOG GROUP BERHAD, DIGI (Bursa: 6947) DIGI.COM BERHAD, GENM (Bursa: 4715) GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD, GENTING (Bursa: 3182) GENTING BERHAD, HAPSENG (Bursa: 3034) HAP SENG CONSOLIDATED BERHAD, HARTA (Bursa: 5168) HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BERHAD, HLBANK (Bursa: 5819) HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD, HLFG (Bursa: 1082) HONG LEONG FINANCIAL GROUP BERHAD, IHH (Bursa: 5225) IHH HEALTHCARE BERHAD, IOICORP (1961) IOI CORPORATION BERHAD, KLCC (Bursa: 5235SS) KLCC PROPERTY HOLDINGS BERHAD, KLK (Bursa: 2445) KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BERHAD, MAXIS (Bursa: 6012) MAXIS BERHAD, MAYBANK (Bursa: 1155) MALAYAN BANKING BERHAD, MISC (Bursa: 3816) MISC BERHAD, NESTLE (Bursa: 4707) NESTLE MALAYSIA BERHAD, PBBANK (Bursa: 1295) PUBLIC BANK BERHAD, PCHEM (Bursa: 5183) PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BERHAD, PETDAG (Bursa: 5681) PETRONAS DAGANGAN BHD, PETGAS (Bursa: 6033) PETRONAS GAS BERHAD, PMETAL (Bursa: 8869) PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDINGS BERHAD, PPB (Bursa: 4065) PPB GROUP BERHAD, RHBBANK (Bursa: 1066) RHB BANK BERHAD, SIME (Bursa: 4197) SIME DARBY BERHAD, SIMEPLT (Bursa: 5285) SIME DARBY PLANTATION BERHAD, TENAGA (Bursa: 5347) TENAGA NASIONAL BHD, TM (Bursa: 4863) TELEKOM MALAYSIA BERHAD, TOPGLOV (Bursa: 7113) TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.

Strong fundamental stocks (eg. glove business) with market greed usually result in market speculation or bubble. Each positive news would be used as a reason to buy high for share prices. Despite strong business fundamental, glove stocks are more suitable for short term trading with trend-following strategies, Buy High Sell Higher. However, due to relative high optimism level, each unexpected correction may incur high losses if a trader does not have a trading plan with S.E.T. (Stop Loss, Entry, Target) prices.

Maybank and Public Bank are aligned with Singapore and global banks at relatively lower optimism levels. Bank stocks are cyclic in nature, therefore investing in national banks (usually supported by local government) during global financial crisis would have higher chances of success for longer term investors who could overcome the market fear, investing with progressive entries of capital (eg. 10 x 10%, 5 x 20%, 2 x 50%, etc). Saving in banks would receive less than 1% return in interest but investing in giant bank stocks could receive over 100% return over a market cycle.

Each country or region has its own national blue chip stock. For example, TSMC (NYSE: TSM) contributed to 1/3 of Taiwan TSEC Stock Index (^TWII). With bullish semiconductor / 5G stocks, TSMC has doubled its share price in 6 months, contributing to higher index value of Taiwan stock market. TSMC has monopoly of 5 nanometer technology in wafer fab, a crucial pillar for emerging 5G Telco business over the next 10 years.

=====================================

Dilemma of investors for global growth stocks (eg. technology, glove, healthcare, etc) are share prices are not cheap when market is not fearful. Therefore, crisis is always an opportunity, especially when a stock price drops significantly during an unexpected crisis (eg. COVID-19 pandemic) but business fundamental is not much affected or even growing.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

This is the first time, 4hr bonus investment course by Dr Tee is conducted through Webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom), a rare opportunity to learn remotely, profiting from Covid-19 stock crisis.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar.

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: bank stock, crisis stock, dividend stock, glove stock, growth stock, telco stocks

Stock Market Updates with Bank Stocks and REITs

Posted on July 31, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Global stock markets (S&P500, STI, KLCI, HSI, SSEC, etc) have been bumpy over the past few months. US Covid-19 condition is still critical, affecting the confidence of V-shape recovery of stock market, as well as the coming US presidential election in Nov 2020. Some investors worry of possible double dip, dare not take any action now. Crisis is always opportunity but an investor has to apply the right stock investing strategy.

At the same time, Singapore stock market is lagging, major bank stocks, DBS Bank (SGX: D05), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11) are under correction after MAS guidelines to cap the dividend payment of banks to 60% of last year (implying if dividend yield is 6%, would become 6×0.6 = 3.6%), disappointing many passive income investors. However, the impact is temporary, earnings of banks won’t be affected (stability is enhanced with more cash in reserve), the shareholders money are kept within the company first. Bank stocks are cyclic in nature, alignment with market cycle is crucial to maximize the potential gain.

This is similar to REITs withhold some dividends in Q1-Q2 / 2020 to preserve cash during the uncertain pandemic period, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Frasers Centrepoint Trust (SGX: J69U), etc. Strong REIT such as First Reit (SGX: AW9U) has fallen to about 1/3 of peak share with price-to-book ratio nearly at 50% discount, mainly due to rental relief to tenant who is also weak sponsor (Lippo Karawaci) which may cut future dividend by half (new agreements with Rupiah exchange rate depreciating by 50%). Crisis is a good time to collect giant dividend stocks but certain risks should not be overlooked.

There are 30 STI index component stocks including most of giant stocks mentioned above (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

===============================

Dr Tee has been very busy since Phase 2 is started, conducting many investment courses, therefore not able to update as frequent as last time (about 200 articles written during past 5 months of Covid-19 pandemic: www.ein55.com/blog)

I start to conduct some online courses which are proven to be effective, especially some students are still not comfortable to meet-up during pandemic. Personally I prefer meet-up workshop as it is more interactive in learning. However, I start to master different ways to engage the students in webinar setting.

This is the first time, 4hr bonus investment course by Dr Tee is conducted through Webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom), a rare opportunity to learn remotely, profiting from Covid-19 stock crisis.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar.

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Webinar-Registration.jpg

Filed Under: Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Trading Tagged: bank stock, investment course, market outlook, reit

2 Free eBooks by Dr Tee (Click to Download)