Based on the latest Coronavirus data until 23 Feb 2020 (see 3 charts below), we have seen the first positive sign of 99% Peak for World vs Singapore is achieved:
World: 749 new cases of total 79400 cases = 0.9% < 1%
SG: 0 new case of total 89 cases = 0% < 1%
This implies that the first possible peak (assuming 99% of cases have occurred, <1% for daily new cases) is achieved on 22 Feb 2020 (# new daily cases was 1.2% for world, 3.4% for Singapore, before falling below 1% criteria on the next day). Interestingly, the date of 99% peak was aligned perfectly with my first video published on 11 Feb 2020 to project on estimated peak of 22 Feb 2020
The analysis was disturbed by the change in diagnosis method by China Hubei, which was further finetuned in second video, confirming by Technical Analysis on the current bearish trend for # new Coronavirus in World & Singapore, projected 99% Peak by end of Feb 2020 (25 Feb 2020 to be exact)
From statistics point of view, from 99% peak, there will be still <1% new daily case for a period of time. It may take another 1-2 months for the virus spreading to reach 100% peak (eg. 0 new daily case for at least 14 days based on incubation period). This assumes no second wave of infection (eg. workforce back to work, new major outbreaks in certain countries) which may not be true, therefore requiring further monitoring, eg. checking if # cases in World and Singapore still <1% (eg <=800 cases for World, <=1 case for Singapore) . If more than >1%, is it below the critical support (2000 cases for World, 2 cases for Singapore)? It means the 99% Peak may be subjective to unknown conditions in future but it is a positive signal to see the first 99% Peak on 22 Feb 2020.
SWOT Analysis
So, does it mean the threat of Coronavirus is confirmed over for World and Singapore? It may not be 100% as the Technical Analysis is based on past statistics over a probability (eg. 99% peak). Similar to investment, past may not be repeated exactly in future (eg. SARS cases may not be exactly the same to guide Coronavirus COVID-19 cases, past 1 month of trend in # cases may not be continued for next 1 month, etc), although the downtrend so far is consistent with projected earlier but still need to monitor for possible reversal (eg. second wave of infection in World or Singapore).
Statistical Analysis (including Technical Analysis) is quantitative but lagging based on the past, assuming certain connection between past and future.
Similar to stock investment, it is important to perform SWOT (Strength / Weakness / Opportunity / Threat) Analysis to “see” the future but in a qualitative way.
S (Strength)
Strong awareness among the countries in the world to implement various measures, eg. reducing flights, stricter local isolation, quicker diagnosis and medical help, etc. This helps to minimize spreading of Coronavirus globally and locally.
W (Weakness)
People may not follow the rule. Eg. 1 person (super spreader) in South Korea could infect about 200 others. Just 1 loophole in the system could result in collapse of entire system. Each country just needs 1 case, eg. the first case of infection in China (mess up with wild life?), the first case of infection in Singapore (tourist from Wuhan), etc.
O (Opportunity)
With higher temperature from Winter to Spring, # cases globally could reduce gradually, may end completely (100% peak) before the hot summer.
Great fear in COVID-19 may start a health revolution globally which could help to prevent other future more deadly viruses and reduce # death of current diseases (eg. seasonal flu).
T (Threat)
The World data is mainly >90% based on China cases. 1 case in Wuhan could affect entire China, Singapore and the world. Similarly, 1 case could start in any country or city which is unprepared or take it lightly. Currently, there are 3 potential “Wuhan” model in Korea Daegu, Japan (from cruise Diamond Princess) and Italy Lombardy, with exponential growth observed. If uncontrolled, these mini Wuhan could spread like wild fire, just need 1 case and ignorant mass to start the spreading.
Singapore is well recognized as Best in many areas in the world, including dealing with Coronavirus crisis. However, even if Singapore could totally stop the virus to 0 case with over 14 days, the potential threat in future is there as Singapore in an international city with so many global tourists coming to Singapore (Singapore people also likes to travel to other countries). So, the Coronavirus threat could only end in Singapore when the World has no new case, absolute 0.
4 Types of Dr Tee (Ein55) Investment Education Programs
These are 4 different investment programs by Dr Tee (either free or low cost), each program has its training goal:
1) 6-day Ein55 course (meet-up) – low cost (contact Dr Tee for special rates)
– most complete training for 55 Ein55 styles, both methods and practical (homework) on stock investment
2) Online course (How to Discover Giant Stocks) – $100 (75% discount, only sold at $25 now)
– focus in 3 value investing strategies (also taught in 6 day Ein55 course, equivalent to about 50% of Fundamental Analysis Section)
– permanent video by investingnote, can be shared within family members, suitable for learning from home or overseas (outside Singapore)
– https://www.investingnote.com/store/products/discover-giant-stocks-value-investing-strategies
3) Video courses (various topics) – Free
– different length (eg. 30-70 min) on various topics (eg. global stock market outlook) under Youtube Channel Ein Tee
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEdKIPAtDx8wp3bWubMtdDw
4) Monthly 4-hr Ein55 courses (meet-up) – Free
– monthly workshop for general public in Singapore to learn 10 strategies of investing and trading
– content different from online course, an introduction of Ein55 investing styles with applications of LO-FTP (Level, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical, Personal) Analysis
