Stock Market Archives - Page 15 of 29

Warren Buffett Apple is the “Best Business in the World”?

Posted on February 25, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Warren Buffett invests in Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and thinks that it is “probably the best business in the world”.

Of course, this statement should be issued AFTER Warren Buffett has invested heavily in Apple Inc. Followers of Buffett would then follow to buy the same stock but at much higher price. Apple is still the same Apple with strong fundamental but FA (Fundamental Analysis) is not the only consideration. There are other key variables in investment, eg:

1) Prices of Apple is a few times higher. This will affect price to valuation. Warren Buffett bought Apple at much lower price, therefore the risk of longer term investing is lower and return is much higher.

2) S&P 500 is at high optimism. US stock market could affect Apple but Apple may not able to affect US stock market. This is Level Analysis, aligning individual stock with the stock market.

3) US economy is at the best of past decade, how to be better? When spending is high, how to be higher for Apple to grow? This is a relative consideration of business for individual stock (Level 1) vs economy of a country (Level 3).

4) Other black swans such as Coronavirus threat (affect retail shopping), China economy slowdown (Apple having lots of business in China), US presidential election (results could affect US-China trades in future), etc.

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In short, investing in Apple has to align with own personality, not simply following Warren Buffett blindly as his personality (depth of business analysis, self-confidence, holding power, diversification, capital, etc) could be different.

Even at current high price (nearly US$300, doubled from US$150 in about 1 year), the optimism level is around 41%, considered a fair price based on Ein55 valuation. However, Apple is more suitable for short term momentum trading as world stock market (Level 4) and US stock market (Level 3) are at higher optimism, it is safer to do short term investing, applying trend-following with closer monitoring. Of course, if Apple is fine each month, then short term investor may gradually become medium term or even long term investor. This is different from starting to aim for long term investing at high optimism stock market unless one could accept moderate return by holding a long term and able to withstand the possible correction due to global financial crisis.

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Back to the title, is “Apple the Best Business in the World”? Fundamental of Apple is indeed very good, it may be Warren Buffett’s best business (since he invested in this business) but may not be the best business in the world. There are other better stocks in the world with stronger business than Apple but investor has to learn how to identify these giant stocks and wait patiently to invest in them at discounted prices.

A giant stock could be just a small cap company (too small for Warren Buffett’s capital which could only consider large cap) but suitable for retail investor with condition to diversify with 10 giant stocks.

Learn from Dr Tee free 4hr stock investment course to consider global giant stocks from various sectors with strong business comparable with Apple, then forming a dream team stock portfolio. Register Here: www.ein55.com

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Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Optimism, Stock Market Tagged: apple, stock, warren buffett

Level 3 Crisis in Malaysia Stock Market and Politics

Posted on February 24, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

The last 48 hours in Malaysia was like episodes of drama series “Games of Thrones”, more exciting than stock market.

Dr M is supported unanimously by both ruling parties (PH) and opposition (BN, PAS, etc) to be the Prime Minister of Malaysia, probably the first case ever in the world politics. However, Dr M decides to resign as PM and Chairman of own party today.

Now, all interested parties and alliances would fight for endorsement by Dr M over the next few days. As an expert in politics (94 years old PM, a world record of most senior political leader), Dr M would leverage on this political “crisis” to reshuffle the power distribution, without any party leadership (he has resigned from own party), he could select supporters from parties or individuals who align with his vision to continue as new PM. In short, he would have the full control in formation of new government alliance unless the parliament is resolved to have a new General Election (if so, he may not be part of the new game).

Political crisis could be an opportunity, smaller parties could become “kingmaker” when position right. Dr M may need more support of both alliances (PH & BN), so that he could have stronger control.

Malaysia stock market falls nearly 3% today, KLCI is below the critical 1500 points (nearly last 10 years low), correcting more than 20% from the market peak a few years ago, fulfill the technical criteria of a bear market. Many Bursa blue chip stocks are falling to low optimism, attractive low prices.

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There are 3 similarities between Stocks and Politics.

1) Investing / Politics during Crisis

Crisis is also opportunity for stock market, provided one could position correctly, focusing only the right stocks (similar to choosing the right parties to support) with strong business fundamental, waiting patiently for the prices to fall to attractive level (similar to Dr M waits for both alliances to fight for his support now).

2) Diversification in 10 stocks portfolio and 10 parties alliance

As a smart investor, one does not need to invest in only 1 or a few stocks as right could be high (eg. PH with 4 parties, could collapse when 1 party is withdrawn). So, diversification over minimum 10 giant stocks would be safer to minimize unsystematic risks. Similarly, Dr M may also diversify his supporters from 4 parties in PH to 10 parties in entire Malaysia, so that political risk is the lowest (not controlled by 1 single party who has critical votes).

3) Leveraging in stock market and politics

An investor or trader with low capital may leverage with CFD to achieve higher return when there is good investing opportunity. Similarly, Dr M could leverage on this rare opportunity with power of only 1 person by balance the power to align with own political vision.

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Crisis is opportunity only for those who are prepared. Malaysia bursa stocks are bearish but buy low may get lower. If wait too long, the “crisis” may be over, when fear is gone, the correction may be over.

So, learn to position in regional stock market through Dr Tee free 4 hour investment course, knowing the Malaysia / US / SG / HK giant stocks to invest (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell). Register Here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: Mahathir, Malaysia, stock market crisis

99% Peak of Coronavirus on 22 Feb 2020 (World vs SG) with SWOT Analysis as Stock Investment

Posted on February 24, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Based on the latest Coronavirus data until 23 Feb 2020 (see 3 charts below), we have seen the first positive sign of 99% Peak for World vs Singapore is achieved:

World: 749 new cases of total 79400 cases = 0.9% < 1%

SG: 0 new case of total 89 cases = 0% < 1%

This implies that the first possible peak (assuming 99% of cases have occurred, <1% for daily new cases) is achieved on 22 Feb 2020 (# new daily cases was 1.2% for world, 3.4% for Singapore, before falling below 1% criteria on the next day). Interestingly, the date of 99% peak was aligned perfectly with my first video published on 11 Feb 2020 to project on estimated peak of 22 Feb 2020

The analysis was disturbed by the change in diagnosis method by China Hubei, which was further finetuned in second video, confirming by Technical Analysis on the current bearish trend for # new Coronavirus in World & Singapore, projected 99% Peak by end of Feb 2020 (25 Feb 2020 to be exact)

From statistics point of view, from 99% peak, there will be still <1% new daily case for a period of time. It may take another 1-2 months for the virus spreading to reach 100% peak (eg. 0 new daily case for at least 14 days based on incubation period). This assumes no second wave of infection (eg. workforce back to work, new major outbreaks in certain countries) which may not be true, therefore requiring further monitoring, eg. checking if # cases in World and Singapore still <1% (eg <=800 cases for World, <=1 case for Singapore) . If more than >1%, is it below the critical support (2000 cases for World, 2 cases for Singapore)? It means the 99% Peak may be subjective to unknown conditions in future but it is a positive signal to see the first 99% Peak on 22 Feb 2020.

SWOT Analysis

So, does it mean the threat of Coronavirus is confirmed over for World and Singapore? It may not be 100% as the Technical Analysis is based on past statistics over a probability (eg. 99% peak). Similar to investment, past may not be repeated exactly in future (eg. SARS cases may not be exactly the same to guide Coronavirus COVID-19 cases, past 1 month of trend in # cases may not be continued for next 1 month, etc), although the downtrend so far is consistent with projected earlier but still need to monitor for possible reversal (eg. second wave of infection in World or Singapore).

Statistical Analysis (including Technical Analysis) is quantitative but lagging based on the past, assuming certain connection between past and future.

Similar to stock investment, it is important to perform SWOT (Strength / Weakness / Opportunity / Threat) Analysis to “see” the future but in a qualitative way.

S (Strength)

Strong awareness among the countries in the world to implement various measures, eg. reducing flights, stricter local isolation, quicker diagnosis and medical help, etc. This helps to minimize spreading of Coronavirus globally and locally.

W (Weakness)

People may not follow the rule. Eg. 1 person (super spreader) in South Korea could infect about 200 others. Just 1 loophole in the system could result in collapse of entire system. Each country just needs 1 case, eg. the first case of infection in China (mess up with wild life?), the first case of infection in Singapore (tourist from Wuhan), etc.

O (Opportunity)

With higher temperature from Winter to Spring, # cases globally could reduce gradually, may end completely (100% peak) before the hot summer.

Great fear in COVID-19 may start a health revolution globally which could help to prevent other future more deadly viruses and reduce # death of current diseases (eg. seasonal flu).

T (Threat)

The World data is mainly >90% based on China cases. 1 case in Wuhan could affect entire China, Singapore and the world. Similarly, 1 case could start in any country or city which is unprepared or take it lightly. Currently, there are 3 potential “Wuhan” model in Korea Daegu, Japan (from cruise Diamond Princess) and Italy Lombardy, with exponential growth observed. If uncontrolled, these mini Wuhan could spread like wild fire, just need 1 case and ignorant mass to start the spreading.

Singapore is well recognized as Best in many areas in the world, including dealing with Coronavirus crisis. However, even if Singapore could totally stop the virus to 0 case with over 14 days, the potential threat in future is there as Singapore in an international city with so many global tourists coming to Singapore (Singapore people also likes to travel to other countries). So, the Coronavirus threat could only end in Singapore when the World has no new case, absolute 0.

4 Types of Dr Tee (Ein55) Investment Education Programs

These are 4 different investment programs by Dr Tee (either free or low cost), each program has its training goal:

1) 6-day Ein55 course (meet-up) – low cost (contact Dr Tee for special rates)

– most complete training for 55 Ein55 styles, both methods and practical (homework) on stock investment

– www.ein55.com/course

2) Online course (How to Discover Giant Stocks) – $100 (75% discount, only sold at $25 now)

– focus in 3 value investing strategies (also taught in 6 day Ein55 course, equivalent to about 50% of Fundamental Analysis Section)

– permanent video by investingnote, can be shared within family members, suitable for learning from home or overseas (outside Singapore)

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3) Video courses (various topics) – Free

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ht tps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEdKIPAtDx8wp3bWubMtdDw

4) Monthly 4-hr Ein55 courses (meet-up) – Free

– monthly workshop for general public in Singapore to learn 10 strategies of investing and trading

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Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: coronavirus stock market, swot analysis

Blessing in Disguise: COVID-19 Crisis Saves Lives and Investment.

Posted on February 24, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

There are many more diseases which cause more death than COVID-19, including regular pheumonia and seasonal flu (including Type A – H1N1). However, the impact could be more on senior citizens or group with weaker immune system, therefore usually these common diseases (pneumonia or even common flu) are not viewed seriously, not just in Singapore, also in other countries. So, the fear of COVID-19 coronavirus (unknown new health enemy) could be a blessing in disguise for the world, helping to save more lives for dying in other common diseases.

Pneumonia requires 2 vaccines injections (1 each year, over 2 years), recommended for elderly people over 60 years old, risk could be minimized significantly as effect could last for life. Seasonal flu is more tricky, different each year or every 6 months, similar to change in fashion, see which is popular virus, then requiring new injection each time, therefore may not be practical for ordinary people.

COVID-19 crisis could be an opportunity to save more lives in other diseases (than potential death in COVID-19 virus) because due to great awareness among the people (eg. wearing mask or keep a distance from those who are sick, etc), may be only 1% of results is used to prevent COVID-19 but 99% of effort indirectly helps to prevent spreading of other known diseases.

Crisis is Opportunity for Stock Investment

Similarly, for stock investment, there are many “blessing in disguise”, crisis is opportunity. Eg, many strong fundamental business stocks may not be cheap (eg. Apple Inc, NYSE: AAPL) when investors are “normal”, usually need to pay for higher prices to get a share for business ownership. However, during global financial crisis, these popular stocks could give tremendous discount, eg. Apple Inc prices dropped to half (50% discount) during 2008-2009 subprime crisis.

However, “Blessing in Disguise” is only possible for stock investment with several conditions:

1) The stock must have strong business fundamental

2) The stock price falls due to fear of market, not due to business (still strong)

3) Investor needs to have independent thinking (not affected by other people opinion), knowing what to buy, when to buy/sell.

So, stock investment knowledge is critical to convert Crisis into Opportunity. With the Coronavirus may end (or accepted globally as seasonal flu which is less deadly) in near future, it is timely to learn about stock investment.

Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: blessing in disguise, covid-19, investment

Dr Tee Free Course – Global Stock Market Outlook with Coronavirus Technical Analysis

Posted on February 21, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Crisis is Opportunity, Dr Tee has used the valuable rest days to produce more online courses. After a few days of effort, here is brand new Dr Tee Free course for Ein55 Reader on Global Stock Market Outlook (World, US, Singapore, Hong Kong, China) with Coronavirus Technical Analysis.

Here is English Version of Ein55 Video Course (Chinese version is available as Dr Tee is bilingual): https://youtu.be/NPalzYPNodU

Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Ein55 youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Ein55 video talks. 2 Bonuses:

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Filed Under: Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis

Dr Tee 免费华语视频投资课程：环球股票市场展望与冠状病毒技术分析

Posted on February 21, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

危机，有危就有机。Dr Tee 应用了难得休假，制作更多网上学习课程。几天的努力后，呈献给 Ein55 会员，全新的免费华语视频投资课程（一小时多的学习）：环球股票市场展望与冠状病毒技术分析。

这儿是 Dr Tee 华语视频（英语视频也已完成，Dr Tee 双语皆行）： https://youtu.be/Wxq_6lj_mOE

请欣赏鄙作，留言求进步。您可订阅 Ein55 youtube 频道，链接未来投资视频。双红利：

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Filed Under: Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Uncategorized Tagged: 免费华语投资课程

Singapore Budget 2020 vs Coronavirus (Updated 19 Feb 2020)

Posted on February 19, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Singapore Budget 2020 is just announced, a balanced plan with both short term (eg. fighting Coronavirus crisis) and mid/long term (eg. retraining) goals. However, money is never enough, so the incentives is just a temporary relief. A country could only get stronger with higher productivity in higher value economy sectors.

Additional financial assistance is given to 5 main sectors affected by Coronavirus, eg. tourism, airline/cruise, transportation, F&B and retail, some business may have dropped more than 50% over the past 1 month.

Fear of Coronavirus is more harmful than its real risk (# death, so far 0 in Singapore) as people start to stay more at home, the sectors above would badly affected. However, this health crisis is likely to be a short term for a few months. Even it becomes an uncontrollable disease as seasonal flu, the fatality would drop significantly based on past experience of new viruses (eg. H1N1) due to build up of immune system within human with more infection. Human could “evolve” as well together with viruses, both have to co-exist in a balanced way of living.

Based on the latest daily # infected for Coronavirus, World (mainly China) is falling down below the critical 2000 “support” from Technical Analysis point of view, light at the end of tunnel to see a strong bearish signal with strong hope to reach a peak (not absolute peak but 95-99% of ultimate value) by end of Feb 2020, with conditions that data reported so is reliable and consistent without a second wave of infection (workforce back to work after lunar new year).

Singapore is still staying above the “support” of 2 daily cases, no clear signal of downtrend in # infected cases. However, the consistent downtrend in World (mainly China) cases is a strong lead to Singapore which is likely 1+ month behind China.

Even after reaching peak, Coronavirus may take a few months to end as there may be cross-infection of those waiting for recovery and long incubation period (14 days).

Learn to take action in stock market before Coronavirus may end in near future: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Personal Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: coronavirus, singapore budget

Grandparents Bank Stock – HSBC (HKEX: 0005)

Posted on February 19, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Despite HSBC (HKEX: 0005) is not a giant bank stock, it is definitely not a junk stock. It used to be a giant stock several decades ago but declining over the last decade in both business and stock prices. So, for life-time investing strategy, it is important to review the grandparents blue chips (another example is SPH, SGX: T29), at least once a year, if business moves in wrong direction (downtrend instead of uptrend) year after year, a painful early farewell may be required, not to wait until falling in share prices over 50%, be a lifetime investor unwillingly, resulting in more capital losses through long term investing of a declining business.

HSBC is still the largest bank in Europe and Hong Kong but we may not need to buy the largest bank. Instead, we focus in most value for money giant bank stock for investing (many in Asia countries, eg Hong Kong / China, Malaysia, etc), selecting the strongest momentum bank stock for trading (probably in US).

HSBC is not a giant bank stock (big size but not strong fundamentally). Global financial crisis has not come, weaker business already catch the cold (start to layoff staff recently), not sure if could survive in the next cold winter with intense global competition.

Investors may also compare with 3 major banks of Singapore: DBS Bank (SGX: D05), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39) and UOB Bank (SGX: U11) which require different investing strategies.

Learn from Dr Tee invest in local and global giant stocks (bank, property, REIT, F&B, healthcare, technology, oil & gas, etc) from Free 4hr stock investment course. Register Here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Stock Market, Stocks A-Z Tagged: bank stock, hsbc

Technical Analysis with Level 1-4 Analysis for Coronavirus (Updated 17 Feb 2020) with Singapore Budget 2020

Posted on February 17, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Similar to Technical Analysis for stock market, we may analyze the # infected cases as share prices but looking for bearish signal, eg downtrend or breaking below a critical support, eg 2000 cases for World (mainly China Hubei) or 2 cases for Singapore.

Latest Coronavirus data (16 Feb 2020) has 3 cases of # infected in Singapore, having good chance to come to “technical support” of 2 daily cases again but need to break below this number for a few days or even 1 week to establish a consistent downtrend. It is harder to analyze Singapore cases due to limited sample size (similar to a volatile penny stock, when base is a low number, up/down would create large % changes).

So, it is relatively more stable to analyze world # infected cases (still near to support of 2000 daily new cases but not yet breaking downward) which are more stable due to large sample size (so far consistently about 1000 times of # cases in Singapore). The mega trend of world could provide some leads to direction of Singapore cases in future.

For stock analysis, this is similar to Level Analysis (LA) or LOFTP strategies, Top-down analysis from World (Level 4) to Country (Level 3) to Sector (Level 2) to Individual Stock (Level 1). For Coronavirus:
Level 4 = World # infected
Level 3 = Respective Country # infected
Level 2 = Respective City # Infected (Singapore L2 = L3 due to small country = city)
Level 1 = Cluster / Group / Company of related cases (smallest unit to track # infected cases).
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Singapore Budget 2020 to be announced on 18 Feb 2020, ideally will serve multiple objectives for 3 different time frames (similar to stock investment: short term, mid term and long term):

1) Short-term (< 3 months): Coronavirus induced financial crisis, especially selected sectors.
2) Mid-term (<1 year): Stimulate Singapore economy which has been slowing down (even before Coronavirus outbreak)
3) Long-term (5-10 years): Create new opportunity for Singapore (restructuring of economy, training / investment in emerging technologies with higher economic values, etc)

Of course, politically, this would give 4th generation leaders, a chance to take the lead, making major decisions during potential crisis time. The results in short term, mid term and long term would translate into scores for voters to consider before next General Election, within 1+ year (latest by 15 Apr 2021). Balance in consideration for short term, mid term and long term would be a test on wisdom of leaders, whether to satisfy short term crisis needs or looking for long term growth or a balanced or average approach with sharing of resources to make most people satisfied but not excited.

Crisis could be an opportunity if the crisis could be resolved eventually with right decisions most of the time. It is true for all countries leaders, especially those most affected by the current Coronavirus: China, Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong, etc.
Learn the opportunity in stock market while waiting for recovery of Coronavirus Crisis: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Personal Analysis, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: coronavirus, singapore budget, technical analysis

Good News and Bad News of Coronavirus vs Stock Market (Updated 16 Feb 2020)

Posted on February 16, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

After China Hubei applied New Method of diagnosis, # cases on 12 Feb 2020 (Day 22 on chart given since monitoring from 22 Jan 2020) surged to an unbelievable number. As pointed earlier, there was no major change in actual condition, the dramatic daily difference is mainly due to one-time adjustment due to new method. However, it disturbed the earlier analysis (was downtrend nicely in # infected cases for 1 week from 15 Feb to 21 Feb 2020), therefore we need to reestablish the confidence in trend with more days of further monitoring.

Good News:

1) Based on last 3 days with New Method of diagnosis in China Hubei, the relative trend is down, implying the absolute # infected could be still a myth but more importantly the downtrend is hopeful, either using Old Method (1 week data) or New Method (3 days data).

2) In fact, the # infected cases old New Method has approached the Old Method of about 2000 daily cases, therefore it is possible to integrate both New and Old Method together but the projected peak for World (mainly for China Hubei) is extended by about 1 week from earlier 22 Feb 2020 forecast to end of Feb 2020.

China Hubei is the original source of Coronavirus started around Dec 2019, if new cases could be limited to very few (peak = 95-99% peak, may not be 0 case, there will be still a few cases each day), possible cross infection to other China cities and also to other countries will be limited. It means, each country or city, just need to focus in own measures to limit the internal spreading of Coronavirus, less worry of external import of # infected cases (eg. cruise, airline, etc).

Bad News:

1) The Good News above is based on the assumption that the reported data is true (at least within the criteria used, either Old Method or New Method) and there is no second wave of infection (eg. China Hubei may stop locked down of city when peak is reached by end of Feb, work force back to work or travel to other cities could create second surge, just need a few super spreaders to ignite the fire again).

2) There is clear divergence in growth rate between China Hubei and other cities or countries (eg. Japan, Singapore, etc). This is logical as the first case in China probably started in Dec 2019, possible to reach a peak by end of Feb 2020 (if there is no second wave) but other countries mostly have first import case from Hubei in Jan 2020 (eg. Singapore first confirmed case was 23 Jan 2020), therefore there is a time delay of about 1+ month. So, even China may have reached the peak by end of Feb 2020 (proven by slower growth rate), the high growth phase still continue in other cities and countries, therefore may take another 1+ month.

It means China is leading, both the starting, growing, slowing and ending of this Coronavirus crisis. Despite we are in Singapore or another country, monitoring of China trends would still help us to better estimate own condition.

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There is a surge in # infected cases over the past 1 week in Singapore, still under high growth rate. This is similar to Technical Analysis of stock for Coronavirus: higher high and higher low with support around 2 cases. It means Singapore has to achieve lower high and also breaking support of daily cases of 2 (eg. 0 or 1) to see the first reversal signal from higher to slower growth rate.

At the moment, Coronavirus is still a mini black swan, stock market has digested the initial fear. However, it is important to monitor the development, see if mini bear could become a big bear eventually.

Under the worst case, even Coronavirus is beyond control (eg. after either locked down of cities or countries in China or Red Dorscon Alert in Singapore with no people going for work or school for a period of time), likely will become a stronger version of H1N1 which is wide spreading yearly, living in “harmony” without great fear by human, despite it is causing tens of thousands of death yearly since 2009 outbreak (even till today under “Flu Type A”) but when people hear it is flu, fear would drop due to its low fatality of 0.05%, ignoring it is wide spreading.

Coronavirus is like a hybrid of SARS and flu: more contagious than SARS but spreading less than seasonal flu; less deadly compared to SARS but more severe than common flu around. Coronavirus would continue to evolve, when more people in the world are infected, fatality would drop due to stronger immunity developed through joint effort of human (despite vaccine may or may not be available).

In short, we need to stay calm, do the right things each day, as normal as possible, life still need to go on with viruses around.

After free oneself from fear of Coronavirus (either defeat it or accept it), don’t forget to learn about investment, converting the current health crisis into new investment opportunity.

Learn Here with Free 4hr investment course by Dr Tee: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: bad news, coronavirus stock market, good news

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