Stock Market Archives - Page 11 of 28

Stock Market (QE vs Coronavirus) 水火不容

Posted on March 26, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Over the past 1 month of global stock crisis with 30% major correction to US stock market due to fear of both Coronavirus pandemic affecting the whole world and Crude Oil price war between OPEC and non-OPEC.

By right, it is nearly a mission impossible for global stock market to recover (eg. for S&P 500 to stand above 3000 points again). Trump’s most powerful opponent is not China nor Biden. It is the tiny Coronavirus which was still an underdog a few months ago when rising from China, but now becomes a deadly challenger to Trump’s second’s term US presidency.

“Water” and “Fire” are 2 extreme elements, never get along well (水火不容). Similarly, “Greed” and “Fear” are 2 human nature which affect the stock markets, eventually the global economy.

Trump is multi-billionaire businessman, understanding the importance of greed to stock market. So, unlimited Quantitative Easing (QE = printing money) combines forces with global QE by Q20 (through various ways of economic stimulus plans, including Singapore), providing liquidity (as if “water”) to investment markets and economy to fight against spreading of wild “fire” due to fear of Coronavirus, which results in weaker economy mainly due to reduced social networking, greatly affecting all sectors, especially transportation, retail, tourism, F&B, now virtually everyone when more countries are under lockdown.

QE is literally printing money or adding liquidity, naturally results in short term market rally, even if not even 1 cent is used yet. Greed could change the market overnight, changing from 5% daily drop to 5% daily rally for global stock market.

However, current “rally” in stock market is more suitable for trading (mid term) unless entry is positioned with long term value investing (consider price below the intrinsic value), able to resist the potential downside. “Greed” and “Fear” will exchange blows to stock market, until a stronger one would survive and stand for longer time.

Let’s understand the weapons of stock market “Greed” and “Fear” now.

Greed is supported by global QE. However, when global stock markets were over speculated over the past decade to high optimism > 75% (especially for US), after the Fear has come to correct to mid optimism of about 50%, it needs more silver bullets to be strong again. In the last global financial crisis (2008-2009 subprime crisis), a few trillions of dollars were pumped in during QE 1-4 during years 2009 – 2014 to revive the US economy with excitement of global stock markets.

Due to investment market and “greed inflation”, current global stock crisis would need more than 10 trillions of dollars to resolve (similar to addiction to drug, dosage is increased each time). So, Trump has found a smart way of “Unlimited QE” through the Fed to provide “unlimited greed” to the investment market, resulting in short term stock market rally.

There are 2 keys before summer (Jun-July) to determine the fate of Trump and global stock markets: Economy vs Coronavirus conditions.

Be careful of early Apr when the first set of monthly economic data is released, likely to show higher unemployment rate or lower GDP, then investors may be back to fear again. Job market is very crucial for global economy, especially for US. Until Feb 2020, unemployment rate of 3.5% is the best performance over the past 50 years, implying the downside is tremendous. For every 100 American, about 96 have jobs which salary could be used for spending (helping other businesses with stocks to grow) and investing (helping investment markets such as stock and properties to grow).

If Mar 2020 (first monthly data after Coronavirus and global stock market crisis, to be reported in early Apr) unemployment gets worse significantly, eg to 4-5% or higher, it means a downtrend economic cycle is initiated with less spending and less investing by No 1 economy, US, which contribute to over 50% of world economy and stock market values. After the retrenchment, usually it is hard to hire back in a short term and economy is slower in response, compared to stock market which could change overnight.

So, time is key now to Trump, only maximum 3 months (Mar – May) to stabilize the global stock market fear, firstly with silver bullets of unlimited QE. However, this is only half-time match, the ending would depends on whether Coronavirus could end on time by summer and even so, will it come come again every 6 months during winter, affecting the whole whole again before vaccine is developed in about 1 year.

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Good news is Trump has a fair chance to win as Coronavirus dislikes warm temperature. Here is an update of Coronavirus condition in major countries (see my previous video on how to analyze):

1) China – 4 months Coronavirus period is confirmed, ending in Mar 2020. China people including Wuhan / Hubei have reopened the door of economy, busy making money again. This is the result after painful experience of lockdown of whole China for 2 months, with good practices continue to prevent future viruses.

2) Korea – was the second most severe country, Coronavirus would end in Apr after follow the lockdown model of China. This is the first proof outside China that Coronavirus could be controlled within about 4 months period with active intervention to minimize the death cases.

3) Italy is the most severe cases, considering the death number (actual infected cases could be more than China as mild cases were not diagnosed). Even so, after lockdown for a few weeks, last 5 days were showing downtrend in new daily cases, good chance to reach a peak by mid of Apr, ending in May.

4) Iran has been stable at high cases (growth is limited), social distancing could be a challenge, therefore infection may continue until more people to be infected before community immunity may be established to stop the spreading.

5) US/Europe is under high growth of Coronavirus, especially for US (major city like New York City with crowded population is high risk), over 13k cases each day, likely will exceed both China and Italy to have the highest number of infection. However, due to strong medical resources, US death rate is lower than China and Italy. However, US/Europe may have high growth in cases in Apr, fading in May, only then may end in Jun.

This is also true for countries like Germany and Singapore, so high infected number may not be a threat, more importantly spread over a longer period to ensure medical solution could be given.

6) Singapore and Southeast asia countries continue to follow the global trends (mainly US/Europe) with high growth. With total / partial lockdown, significant reduction would be observed in number of new daily cases as most new cases are imported cases due to return of residents infected from overseas.

7) Both Africa and India (second world largest population) may be slow in spreading of cases but Coronavirus treats everyone fairly. So, early intervention in India with strict measures would help to lower the death rate by slowing down the growth rate, similar strategy as in Singapore. Many people die in China Hubei and Italy, not due to high number of cases, but mainly due to lack of medical resources during the peak period.

In summary, there is fair chance for current on-going Coronavirus to end in summer (Jun-July). The turning point from high to slower growth rate (decline in new daily cases) is key for US as this is the first signal to see light at the end of tunnel, which would affect both stock and economy in US and whole world.

So, Trump could only help 50% with unlimited QE. The remaining 50% would need the opponent Coronavirus to fall itself. The results will be clear in summer but signals will be clearer each week from now to summer and stock market would reflect such probability of winning or losing through the stock prices.

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In general, don’t focus on daily changes in share prices. Rather, one has to establish an overall strategy: long term investing, mid term trading or short term trading. Both long or shorting is possible but need to align with own personality.

In the current uncertain market with lower optimism in Asia stock market and mid optimism for US, it is relatively safe to apply long term value investing but entries have to be in batches (eg. 10% x 10 times, 20% x 5 times, 33% x 3 times, 50% x 2 times), averaging down and up with low optimism strategies across Level 1 (individual stocks), Level 2 (sectors), Level 3 (country) and Level 4 (world) over a portfolio of 10-20 global giant stocks.

If trading is applied, S.E.T. (Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices) trading plan must be followed strictly but a challenge for retail traders in volatile market with +/- 5% in daily stock market.

If Coronavirus may end in summer, global stock market has reasonable chance to recover with support of global QE. If not, it may fall into depression with global financial crisis, especially if the same virus may come back again every winter, every 6 months to haunt the world. By then, vaccine in about 1 year of now would be key to prevent the global financial crisis falling into the great depression as it is serious when there is little social network (eg. shopping) for more than 1 year.

Dr Tee has cancelled all investment workshops in Feb-Apr 2020 during global stock crisis to follow the government rules with less gathering. This is a regret for some students as it is the best time in 10+ years to learn and apply crisis stock investing. So, I could only share through more regular articles and video education but it has limitation compared to a more comprehensive 4 hours workshop.

The next available free 4hr investment public workshop (with meet-up) by Dr Tee will be on 21 May 2020, you may register here before it is full: www.ein55.com

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 8000 members:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/ein55forum/

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Stock Market Tagged: coronavirus, global financial crisis, qe, quantitative easing, stock market

Action in Global Stock Crisis 心动不如行动

Posted on March 24, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Market analysts usually like to predict the future. Before 1 month ago in bull market, some still predicted how high US stock and economy may surge. Now, of course predict how low it may drop to the bottom.

Some readers may be confused of so many future market directions, unsure which one to follow, ending up as an observer without taking any action, missing the boat eventually.

It is human nature hoping to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest point of stock market. However, it is not practical to follow these predictions before actions. Each of us need to have a strategy aligned with personality, may not need to be a long term investor, could be short term or mid term trader.

In general, long term investor only need to buy at price below the value with significant discount, no need to buy at the lowest (if got it, treat it as a bonus but not a must to have). An investor just need to define % discount acceptable to oneself, similar to a shopper going for shopping with sales, will trigger a buy when % discount is more than expectation.

For traders, one may add trend-following indicators on prices, waiting for reversal before entry (now is mostly for shorting), no problem if new prices are higher, a confirmation of new trend (eg bull to bear) but always follow SET plan: Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices.

Action is more important after reasonable analysis (no need to be very precise, especially for longer term investing but overall direction must be correct). Press the button when signals aligned with own personality, not aligned with market analysts or mass market.

Learn further from Dr Tee free 4hr investment course on how to take actions in global stock crisis: Buy / Hold / Sell / Wait / Shorting with 10 different strategies in stocks: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Optimism, Personal Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: global financial crisis, stock market crisis, take action

Antibiotic of Unlimited QE (饮鸩止渴)

Posted on March 24, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Trump started as US president on 20 Jan 2017, S&P 500 index was 2271 points (Trump “IPO” price), surging to historical high of 3386 points on 19 Feb 2020, rising about 50% in 3 years, reaching over 90% Optimism for US stock market, then following to 2227 points currently, below “IPO” price of Trump when he was elected.

S&P 500 index is report card of Trump. Some US voters may not like Trump but still support him due to economic consideration (job market with low unemployment rate, strong GDP, bonus fortune from US stock and property markets, etc). Now, Trump’s report card is back to square one, falling below the first date as president (“IPO” price), is an indication of market valuation of his performance.

Optimism is a measurement of market greed and fear. High optimism > 75% usually is not sustainable, therefore I have been reminding readers over the past 2 years when S&P 500 over 3000 points, to be extra cautious, focusing mainly on short term trading (trend-following, entry/exit with short term signal, including cutloss when there is unexpected reversal signal).

Unfortunately, some investors may think it is a free ride with bullish US economy supported by a strong president who knows stock market, therefore entering initially as a short term trader, after market correct down more than 30% in 1 month, being forced to be a long term investor.

US and G20 political leaders decide to adopt an easy old way, Quantitative Easing (QE, printing money) to revive the global stock market and economy with antibiotic. However, QE as antibiotic can be addictive, last global financial crisis of 2008-2009 required a few trillions of dollars in QE 1-4 over about 5 years. When the same market patient falls again in the next global financial crisis, it may require over 10 times more dosage, eg over tens of trillions dollars to revive again.

By right, global stock market and economic crisis are common over the hundred years. A patient who is falling sick due to flu, usually there is no need for antibiotic, just sufficient rest with down time would help to recover gradually. Similarly, usually stock market just needs to fall to low optimism for a period of time, then it would recover naturally, even the Great Depression in 1929 could recover again after 5 years of “depression”.

Year 2020 is special. It is election year for Trump’s second term US presidency. Therefore, Trump does not have time for typical bear market to fall and recover after 12 months later. Trump needs the report card of S&P 500 to become positive again by summer, aligning with similar timing of Coronavirus may fade away with warmer weather. Therefore, financial antibiotic is used by many countries, including US which shows the ultimate super cure of “unlimited QE”, implying unlimited purchase of asset with virtual money.

“Unlimited” QE may not be really unlimited but it could help to give confidence to market without spending 1 cent. Therefore, usually when the Fed say something, wording has to be careful as it could cause the market to move in certain direction.

Unlimited QE or massive global QE (over 10 trillions dollars) would be another time bomb for future generation. In late 1980s, Japan has experienced burst of a super bubble of stock and property market, resulting in a lost 2-3 decades later, elderly people could not retire while young people see gloomy future with flat salary. Unlimited QE is as if financial addiction if without control, similar to drinking poisonous wine to quench the thirst (饮鸩止渴).

When global stock market experienced high optimism over 75% in the past 2 years, implying the market patient was having fever. There is no need in a hurry to revive the patient in short term, after falling to low optimism, it would recover naturally. Global political leaders hope to sustain the high optimism market or economy is uphill tasks to fight against the market fear with snow ball effect.

Trump is taking a chance but it depends on collaboration of Coronavirus to end by summer (Jun-July 2020). Even the global stock market may fall to low optimism < 25% before summer, if timing is aligned with W.H.O. declaration of ending of Coronavrius pandemic, then the global QE would help. Despite global stock market could be in crisis but real economy would take about 6 months to show the damage, therefore these financial stimulus plans have to be implemented ASAP, more or stronger dosage may be required before summer over the next few months.

For global investors, global stock crisis is a fact, only difference is whether it is a flash crash (V share recovery in 3 months) or typical global financial crisis (over 6-12 months for economy to fall to bottom before stock market could reborn). Either way, it would be a gift from heaven, either received in 3 months or 12 months later.

Investors may focus more in long term value investing during this period, entering in batches to preserve the bullets, some positions during downtrend of low market optimism to ensure a chance for lucky draw, then remaining positions in uptrend to align with market direction as a trader.

Learn from Dr Tee free 4hr investment course on 10 strategies aligned with unique personalities for a portfolio global giant stocks under tremendous discount now, leveraging on Unlimited QE with global stock crisis. Register Here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Bond Market, Personal Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: global financial crisis, quantitative easing, stock market crisis, Unlimited QE

Time for Bottom of Stock Market (海底捞月)

Posted on March 23, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

No one would know the true bottom (the lowest point) of stock market unless having the ability to “Back to the Future”. Time for the bottom of stock market is ideal but may not be practical as it could be reaching the moon with underwater reflection (海底捞月), greedy for the lowest (cheapest price with most discount) with little considerations of other risk factors, may fall into water with market trap. For those without any action, there is also a fear of missing out, eventually may miss the boat of opportunity totally. So, it is a dilemma for some investors to Buy or to Wait when stock market is bearish.

Similarly, in a Bull market (last 10 years), it is also a headache for investors to “Hold” or to “Sell”. Over the past few years, I have reminded repeatedly readers and students to take note of the high optimism risk at Level 3 (country, especially US) and Level 4 (world) stock markets, safer to apply short term trading, walking on a layer of thin ice which finally breaks over the past 1 month (those who fell but did not sell as short term trader is now trapped with over 30-50% losses). So, even one may not know the highest point, as long as know “High Enough” (>75% optimism), one could escape from the 30% loss in global stock market, which may have another 20-30% potential to fall, if it becomes global financial crisis with declining economy.

However, it is possible to apply probability investing to start progressive entries (for contrarian investor) when it is “Low Enough”. 25% Optimism will be a point of “Low Enough”, 0% Optimism is considered a rare opportunity. However, “Buy Low” is insufficient, one has to align other Ein55 styles to form personalized strategy aligned with own personality, otherwise When “Buy Low” may “Sell Lower” or “Sell Lowest” one day for those with weak holding power, especially if global financial crisis is confirmed and become worse over the next 6-12 months after the starting of global stock crisis in Mar 2020.

Trump and G20 political leaders may join forces in the next 1-3 months to launch the most generous QE ever (eg. massive printing of money of a few Trillions of dollars through asset purchase by government and other feasible economic stimulus tools). However, this is borrowing money from the future generation (20 years from now), simply planting another time bomb for future investment market (similar to QE 1-4 over the past decade, finally triggered by fear of Coronavirus and crude oil crisis).

For smart investor, one could save 10-20 years of investing time by leveraging on current opportunity. However, the lost generation who does not know investment may suffer in future. See Japan ‘s example of lost 3 decades, some elderly people could not retire as retirement was evaporated and young people need to struggle with lower pay job without bright future despite inflation is low.

I am reluctant to reveal here exactly what are the prices of “low enough” (25% optimism) or “rare opportunity” (0% optimism) for each investment here (stocks, properties, commodities, forex, bond, bitcoin, car COE, etc). Main reason is readers may not be trained, sharing may be wrongly used as “tips”, when not supported by other Ein55 styles (eg. strong fundamental stocks and technical of prices, macroeconomic analysis, personality, etc), it could be a disaster.

Current global stock market crisis could be a gift from heaven but only if one knows exactly how to position with integration of minimum 5 Ein55 Styles of LOFTP strategies (Level 1-4, Optimism 0-100%, Fundamental – Strong/Weak, Technical – Up/Down, Personal – Trade / Invest).

Register Here for free 4hr stock investment course by Dr Tee (23 Apr session is full, next one is 21 May session, only 1 class monthly, will be updated in same website): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Optimism, Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: global financial crisis, stock market bottom, stock market crisis

Investment Money Has Eyes (水涨船高)

Posted on March 22, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Money has “eyes”, will find its way through the global investment markets (stocks, properties, commodities, bond, forex, etc), looking for higher and quicker return in bull market (eg. stock and property markets with stronger economy); seeking safe haven market for safety during bear market (eg. more cash in bank or higher demand in bond market with weaker economy).

When investment market is fearful, fund with global money would flow from stocks to bonds (especially for Level 3 country level bond, eg. US treasury bond) due to safety, resulting in higher bond price, therefore lower bond yield. US 10 years treasury bond yield even dropped to about 0.5% during the recent flash stock market crash, recovering to around 1.1% recently, but still at historical low level.

A few key points on investment money flow:

1) US is No 1 world economy, a safe haven, despite lower interest rate (0%), USD is stronger during current bear market, therefore USD/SGD at high optimism, about 1.45 exchange rate. Similarly, usually emerging market currency would be stronger during a bull market. Forex traders or overseas investors (require forex consideration in stock or property investment) have to understand impact of economy and stock market, etc, on each pair of forex.

2) US government bond yield at 1% is no longer for investment, more for safety. Therefore, it is possible even for bond market to have major correction (price down, yield up) but only when confidence of country is affected and there is opportunity in stock market recovery, then fund would flow from bond market or cash (in bank or under pillow) to stock market again.

3) When market sentiment is fearful, even Level 1, individual bond (corporate bond) would suffer but bond has fixed income and guaranteed for principal upon maturity, therefore it is possible to invest in corporate bond with higher return (eg. over 5% bond yield) but need to focus on shorter term bond (<6-12 months to avoid higher risk during potential global financial crisis) with strong business fundamental (unlikely to default in bond, supported by strong asset, earning or cashflow with lower debt).

Current global stock market crisis (about 30% is US / Singapore, 40% in Europe) is only a stock crisis due to fear (technical recession with falling in stock prices), not yet a global financial crisis (with declining economy) but investor has to monitor very closely, especially the 2 black swans of Coronavirus condition and Crude Oil market price war, making crucial decision before summer (Jun-July 2020).

Since global Quantitative Easing (QE or printing of money) is back again, the natural balance among the investment markets would be affected. With QE, it is possible for both stock and bond market to rise (flooding of money) and drop (exit of QE) together, not necessarily opposite to each other (usually when there is no QE).

Recent global stock crisis is a major reversal of how the smart money may flow among the 5 major investment markets (cash in bank, stock, bond, property, commodity, forex).

Readers should take proactive actions in next few months, especially for stock market, many global giant stocks are at very attractive discount (some even more than 50% correction) but positioning requires a unique combination of counter-trend and trend-following strategies aligned with own personality.

Learn from Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to position in current global stock crisis: What stocks and other investments to Buy, When to Buy / Sell.

Filed Under: Bond Market, Commodity Market, Forex, Property Market, Stock Market Tagged: bond market, commodity, forex, investment money, Property Market, stock market

Dr Tee Video Education: Global Stock Crisis Investing

Posted on March 21, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In this Dr Tee video education (Global Stock Crisis Investing), you will learn:

1) Understand how the 2 black swans crashed the global stock market in last 1 month

2) Compare global stock market losses: US, Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Germany.

3) Technical Analysis of Coronavirus by country with stage of virus life cycle and estimated ending period.

4) Position in two possible scenarios for global stock market before summer 2020 (Jun-July).

5) Investment clock (When to Buy / Sell) with Optimism Strategies (long term / mid term / short term) for 5 global stock markets: World, US, Singapore, Hong Kong and China.

Here is English Version of Ein55 Video Course (Chinese version is available as Dr Tee is bilingual):

This crisis investing strategy may be applied to 30 Singapore STI index component stocks (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

This powerful strategy can be extended to global giant stocks including 30 Malaysia Bursa KLCI index component stocks (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
CIMB (Bursa: 1023) CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BERHAD, DIALOG (Bursa: 7277) DIALOG GROUP BERHAD, DIGI (Bursa: 6947) DIGI.COM BERHAD, GENM (Bursa: 4715) GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD, GENTING (Bursa: 3182) GENTING BERHAD, HAPSENG (Bursa: 3034) HAP SENG CONSOLIDATED BERHAD, HARTA (Bursa: 5168) HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BERHAD, HLBANK (Bursa: 5819) HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD, HLFG (Bursa: 1082) HONG LEONG FINANCIAL GROUP BERHAD, IHH (Bursa: 5225) IHH HEALTHCARE BERHAD, IOICORP (1961) IOI CORPORATION BERHAD, KLCC (Bursa: 5235SS) KLCC PROPERTY HOLDINGS BERHAD, KLK (Bursa: 2445) KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BERHAD, MAXIS (Bursa: 6012) MAXIS BERHAD, MAYBANK (Bursa: 1155) MALAYAN BANKING BERHAD, MISC (Bursa: 3816) MISC BERHAD, NESTLE (Bursa: 4707) NESTLE MALAYSIA BERHAD, PBBANK (Bursa: 1295) PUBLIC BANK BERHAD, PCHEM (Bursa: 5183) PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BERHAD, PETDAG (Bursa: 5681) PETRONAS DAGANGAN BHD, PETGAS (Bursa: 6033) PETRONAS GAS BERHAD, PMETAL (Bursa: 8869) PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDINGS BERHAD, PPB (Bursa: 4065) PPB GROUP BERHAD, RHBBANK (Bursa: 1066) RHB BANK BERHAD, SIME (Bursa: 4197) SIME DARBY BERHAD, SIMEPLT (Bursa: 5285) SIME DARBY PLANTATION BERHAD, TENAGA (Bursa: 5347) TENAGA NASIONAL BHD, TM (Bursa: 4863) TELEKOM MALAYSIA BERHAD, TOPGLOV (7113) TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.

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There are over 1500 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar.

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Personal Analysis, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Trading Tagged: crisis stock investing, global financial crisis, video education

Dr Tee 教育视频: 环球股灾送良机

Posted on March 21, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

在这Dr Tee 教育视频（环球股灾送良机），您可学习：

1）两只黑天鹅如何制造过去一个月的全球股灾。

2）比较全球股市亏损程度：美国、新加坡、香港、中国、德国。

3）各国新冠病毒技术分析：疫情周期，预估结束点。

4）夏天（6-7月）前的股市两大布局。

5）乐观指数显示投资时钟（短期、中期、长期）：全球、美国、新加坡、香港、中国。

这儿是 Dr Tee 华语视频（英语视频也已完成，Dr Tee 双语皆行）：

请欣赏鄙作，留言求进步。您可订阅 Dr Tee Youtube （Ein Tee）频道，链接未来教育视频。双红利：

1) Dr Tee 免费投资课程与电子书下载:
www.ein55.com

2) Dr Tee 9堂网上价值投资策略课程 ($100, Ein55 会员获得75%折扣，只需$25, 可全家分享):
https://www.investingnote.com/store/products/discover-giant-stocks-value-investing-strategies

Filed Under: Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: 环球股灾, 股市, 良机

Uphill Task to Invest in Stock Market Crisis

Posted on March 18, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

When Dow Jones Index drops below 20000 points during intra-day today (quickly recover above it, although may fall below again in near future), this is about last 3 years low. This implies an investor is saving 3 years of investing time if investing in current level. So, when one could invest in last 10 years low for a major stock index (eg. US S&P 500 or Dow Jones Index), it means the crisis helps one to “jump queue”, saving 10 years of waiting time.

So, when looking backward, history does help one to decide the entry and exit, especially the stock market cycle which could be 5 to 10+ years long. Current bull for global/US stock market (Mar 2009 – Mar 2020) is 11 years, the longest in the history of stock market so far, after US stock market lost more than 1/3 of market cap so far, Dow Jones Index falls from nearly 30000 to 20000 points in 1 month. Despite a bear market is confirmed, this is not yet low optimism < 25% based on Ein55 styles, only a mid-size bear so far.

However, the waiting time has to include the fall + recovery again, therefore some investors prefer to wait till the uptrend phase before entry which is easy to miss the boat (1 chance left) when an entry price is not defined. If an investor enters as contrarian approach first, there are at least 2 chances: fall below the desired entry price and again above the entry price after a period of waiting.

Ein55 members, please plan your entries, how many bullets to use: 1 shot or multiple shots. Don’t end up no shot at all when the game is over.

Learn from Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to plan for your “bullets” to shoot, investing in stock market with LOFTP (Levels 1-4, Optimism 0-100%, Fundamental – Strong/Weak, Technical – Up/Down, Personal – Trade/Invest) Strategies to leverage on current global stock market crisis. Register Here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Market Optimism, Personal Analysis, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: Dow Jones Index, S&P 500, stock market crisis

Stock Market Fear with 0% interest rate and $700B QE

Posted on March 17, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

0% US interest Rate + $700B QE = Stock Crisis Fear

US Fed just cut interest rate to historical low of 0-0.25% + strength of $700B QE (Quantitative Easing) but introducing on bearish stock market. This is wasting bullet. In fact, global stock market falls more due to fear of such action, US stock market is halted due to circuit breaker with 7% fall.

A natural way is to let the market reset itself with a global financial crisis and falling of global stock market to low optimism < 25%. However, this would affect the chances of Trump second term presidential election as S&P 500 has been his report card, hard to show negative results to his supporters who may also be investors.

If US stock market (Level 3) falls to low optimism <25%, world stock market (Level 4) would also follow, officially falling into Global Financial Crisis which may last longer than 6-12 months, depending on the severity. It would be timely to consider cyclic giant stocks from sectors such as bank, property, airline, technology, etc, focusing on strong fundamental stocks only, don’t buy stock purely based on prices (eg. historical low price).

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A stock market could only reborn after falling to worse case of <25% optimism, then measures such as QE1 in 2009 could be effective (limited downside then).

US stock market is still at 50% optimism, Trump tries an uphill task to save the stock market by introducing interest rate cut to 0% and massive QE of $700, it is wasting money and effort. Stock market bubbles may be burst, money would escape from stock market, even from bond market (since bond yield is <1%), holding as cash which is king but low interest rate would push some investors to invest again in future, after global financial crisis with low prices of stocks everywhere.

It would take time to recover or if Trump is lucky, Coronavirus may end by summer, then it could still be a mini bear, but fear in stock market may spread faster than Coronavirus over the next few critical months, depending on global countries, need to fight 2 crisis (health + stock) together.

Learn further from Dr Tee, strategies to integrate economy with stock market: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market Tagged: interest rate cut, qe, stock market crisis

Cyclic Investing Stock: DBS Bank

Posted on March 16, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

DBS Bank (SGX: D05) is the largest bank in Southeast Asia, an iconic national bank of Singapore with Temasek as major shareholder (29% ownership). DBS also owns POSB, a common people’s bank in Singapore. DBS is a cyclical stock, performance depends on economic cycle and global stock market cycle, sensitive to changes in global central banks interest rates.

Due to Coronavirus induced stock market crash over the past 1 month, the Fed has decided to cut US bank interest rates, firstly by 0.5%, then again by another 1%, dropping to historical low of 0-0.5%, hoping to stimulate and sustain the current US economy. Global central banks include Singapore are expected to follow the footstep to lower the domestic interest rates.

In general, banks have several ways to make money, there are 2 main types:

1) Interest related income

Main revenue is through the difference of deposit (eg. 1%) and loan (eg. 2%), or the Net Interest Margin (NIM) to make money from cash in and out the bank. Usually when interest rates are at higher level (eg. over the past 5 years), NIM will be relatively higher, therefore most banks (including DBS, OCBC, UOB) would make money easily. Therefore over the past few years, there is no strong need to read the quarterly financial reports of 3 major banks in Singapore as the interest related income would be higher naturally.

However, with the downtrend US interest rates from over 2% to 0% over the past 1+ year, bank stocks have to work harder in other revenue generator to maintain the profits.

2) Non-interest related Income

Traditional banks mostly make money from interest income but modern banks also depend on investment (bank could use the cash obtained at low interest to make investment for higher return), insurance (many banks also have insurance business, eg. OCBC with Great Eastern (SGX: G07), UOB Bank (SGX: U11) with United Overseas Insurance (SGX: U13), etc), credit card (now you may understand why you may have so many credit cards issued by various banks, including DBS / POSB).

During bullish economy, investment income could be significant, therefore usually bank stocks prices following the economic cycle, especially for DBS. About every 10 years, there will be a stock market cycle induced by a global financial crisis, eg. Year 1997-1998 (Asian Financial Crisis), Year 2003 (SARS/Gulf War), Year 2008-2009 (Subprime Crisis) and potentially Year 2020 (Coronavirus Crisis?) which is still on-going, still a mini bear at the moment.

In every global financial crisis (eg. Years 1997/2003/2009), we may observe some fearful people queue up in front of DBS bank (and also other banks), worry bank may go “bankrupt”, therefore would like to withdraw the money to keep “safely” at home. As a result, DBS share prices dropped to less than $10/share in these crisis, but recovering above $10 or even $20 when people forget again several years later.

Banks usually keep only a minimum sum of cash (could be less than 10%) for regular operations, lending out most of the cash to make money. If everyone comes to withdraw money (see many years ago during Euro Debt Crisis, photo showing some elderly people crying in weaker bank in Greece, not able to withdraw money), then even the strongest bank in the world may not able to give the cash on time. Therefore, bank with strong sponsor is crucial, especially for DBS bank backed by Temasek with Singapore government with AAA credit rating supporting behind.

So, a smart way of stock investing is to wait for DBS bank share to drop to less than $10/share again during the next global financial crisis or observe any long queue in front of DBS bank to withdraw money again (not a reliable way, just a form of Personal Analysis, PA, for confirmation if needed).

Currently DBS is about $18+, below critical $20/share support, share price is about 40% optimism, just below the fair price of $21. The Price-to-Book (PB) ratio has dropped below the historical low of 1, currently at 0.97 (about 3% discount, not much, but rarely happen to DBS). In order to buy at unfair price (may not be <$10), one has to follow optimism strategy to consider DBS bank at share price <25% Optimism, a few may even aim for 0% optimism to take full advantage of crisis as many other giant stocks.

Value investing is simple, knowing the value, then wait for the discount before buying the stock. Only difference is how much discount is sufficient may depend on individual, eg. DBS share prices at $20, $15, $10, $5 … However, when one is too greedy for the highest discount (eg. looking at historical low price which usually is not a good way as history may not repeat in this way), eg. buying DBS at $1/share, as probability is low (although not 0%). Assuming DBS may drop to $1/share, I doubt few people dare to buy the stocks then because there could be a crisis similar to the scale of 1929 Great Depression.

In short, Buy Low enough (Sell High in future for cyclic stock such as DBS), no need to buy at the lowest (else one may miss the perfect timing, totally lose the investment opportunity). A smart investor may also integrate with trading to avoid buy low get lower to buy undervalue stocks during bear market. For further risk management, one may consider 10-20 giant stocks to buy strong fundamental stocks in 10 different sectors or countries for diversification, even if DBS really go “bankrupt” one day, the potential loss is controlled within 5-10% of investment portfolio.

There are 30 Banking & Finance stocks in Singapore (an investor needs to focus only on giant stocks) with DBS Bank as the leader:
AMTD IB OV (SGX: HKB), B&M Hldg (SGX: CJN), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Edition (SGX: 5HG), G K Goh (SGX: G41), Global Investment (SGX: B73), Great Eastern (SGX: G07), Hong Leong Finance (SGX: S41), Hotung Investment (SGX: BLS), IFAST Corporation (SGX: AIY), IFS Capital (SGX: I49), Intraco (SGX: I06), Maxi-Cash Finance (SGX: 5UF), MoneyMax Finance (SGX: 5WJ), Net Pacific Finance (SGX: 5QY), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), Pacific Century (SGX: P15), Prudential USD (SGX: K6S), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), SHS (SGX: 566), Sing Investments & Finance (SGX: S35), Singapore Reinsurance (SGX: S49), Singapura Finance (SGX: S23), TIH (SGX: T55), Uni-Asia Group (SGX: CHJ), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOB-KAY HIAN HOLDINGS (SGX: U10), UOI (SGX: U13), ValueMax (SGX: T6I), Vibrant Group (SGX: BIP).

DBS is a good cyclic bank stock which also pay dividend consistently (currently over 6% dividend yield) if one could align with market cycle, applying optimism strategies. DBS is not suitable for growth investing (OCBC Bank (SGX: O39) could fit better). So, selection of right stock with right strategy with unique personality is key for investment success.

Instead of watching for long withdrawal queue in DBS (not a reliable investing method), smart investors may learn from Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to apply LOFTP (Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) Strategies in global giant stocks (including banks stronger than DBS), knowing what to buy, when to buy/sell or how long to hold.
Register Here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Outlook, Stock Market Tagged: cyclic investing stock, dbs, dbs bank, global financial crisis, stock market, temasek stock

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