Download Dr Tee Latest eBooks: Market Outlook 2023 & Dream Team Portfolio 2023

Posted on November 3, 2022 Written by

Fresh from Oven: Download the latest 2 FREE high-quality stock investment eBooks by Dr Tee on (1) “Global Market Outlook 2023”, covering comprehensive investment topics: Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond and Political Economy & (2) “Dream Team Portfolio 2023” with Top 10 global stocks for capital gains and passive incomes. Past readers have benefited both stock investment eBooks, learning simple and useful strategies to position in current global stock markets.

Are you worried about the current global stock market with potential black swans such as high inflation, interest rate hike, Russia-Ukraine War, supply chain disruptions and endless COVID19 cases which contribute to declining stock prices? Every crisis is an opportunity for investing. You will learn useful methods step by step from 2 valuable FREE stock investment eBook by Dr Tee which work in stock market. Take action now to surprise yourself!

Dr Tee 刚完成2本投资秘籍。《环球市场展望2023》书内覆盖很多在环球主要市场 (美国、新加坡、香港、中国、欧洲) 的投资议题及提供解决方法。《10大梦幻股票2023》书则分享了各种实用投资策略于10大高潜能股票。很多读者已经从Dr Tee过去发表的股票投资书中受惠，大家可在Dr Tee 的最新报告中洞悉环球市场目前面对的风险及机遇。

Table of Contents (FREE Stock Investment eBook #1):
Global Stock Market Outlook 2023

Mass Market Sentiment Survey （大众市场情绪调查）
Review of Global Stock Markets （环球股市回顾）
US Market Outlook （美国市场展望）
Regional Market Outlook (Europe, China, Hong Kong) （区域市场展望）
Singapore Market Outlook (Stock & Property) （新加坡市场展望）
Conclusions and Recommendations （总结及建议）

Table of Contents (FREE Stock Investment eBook #2):
Top 10 Global Stocks – Dream Team Portfolio 2023

Personalized Stock Investment Portfolio （个人化股票投资组合）
Ein55 Global Top 10 Stocks （10大全球高潜能股票）
Summary of Actions （投资方向总结）

Download Dr Tee 2 eBooks Here: http://eepurl.com/P8i61

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There are over 2000 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar, you could ask on any global and local stocks including but not limited to 30 STI component stocks:

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

View quick preview video below, Dr Tee will introduce 10 key stock investment strategies (股票投资十招) to be learned in 4hr free stock webinar:

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar):  www.ein55.com

Dr Tee Stock Webinar
Filed Under: Bond Market, Commodity Market, Market Optimism, Market Outlook, Property Market, Stock Market Tagged: , ,

10 Stock Investment Strategies (股市投资十招)

Posted on July 29, 2021 Written by

Dr Tee has conducted over 300 high-quality public workshops over the last decade, from meet-up sessions to webinars currently, content is enhanced regularly. Dr Tee has updated the preview video today (only 8 minutes), showing the tremendous value of free investment education to general public every month.

In this quick preview, Dr Tee will introduce 10 key investment strategies to be learned in 4hr free stock webinar (Register Here: www.ein55.com):
1) Bonus Stock Diagnosis (股票基本与技术分析)
2) Global Market Outlook / ETF Investing (环球市场展望 / 指数投资法)
3) CFD / Option Trading (差价合约交易)
4) REITS / Dividend Blue Chips (高息蓝筹股)
5) Free Stock Screener (免费环球股票筛选平台)
6) Investment Clock (投资时钟)
7) Crisis Stock Investing (危机投资股)
8) Investing with Big Boys (大鱼投资股)
9) Growing Giant Stocks (长期成长投资股)
10) Momentum Trading Stocks (短期动量股)

Share this high quality free stock webinar by Dr Tee with your friends, learning at the comfort of home.
Register Here: www.ein55.com

Join earlier for bonus stock diagnosis. We will review the impact of recent stock market correction with opportunities in global giant stocks with 10 stock investing and trading strategies, either Average Down (Buy Low Sell High) or Average Up (Buy High Sell Higher), choosing a strategy aligning with own personality.

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There are over 2000 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar, you could ask on any global and local stocks including but not limited to 30 STI component stocks:

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Ein55-Website-Post-Event-Register-Bursa.jpg
Filed Under: Bond Market, Commodity Market, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, Market Outlook, Property Market, Stock Market Tagged: ,

134 Singapore Property Stocks with Discounted NAV Strategy (为善最乐)

Posted on May 9, 2021 Written by

In recent Ein55 Charity Course on Global Discounted NAV (DNAV) Stocks, we have raised fund of $24,488 to help needy families in Singapore. Under the spirit of charity, Dr Tee decides to share 134 Singapore Property Stocks and 3 global DNAV stocks in 3 countries with readers (detailed strategies including Ein55 Optimism levels, Ein55 intrinsic values and DNAV will be shared):

1) Singapore DNAV Stock – Hongkong Land (SGX: H78)

2) Malaysia DNAV Stock – Paramount (Bursa: 1724)

3) Hong Kong / China DNAV Stock – Yuexiu Property (HKEx: 123)

Dr Tee, Ein55 Mentors & Graduates have together organized 11 charity investment courses (REITs in Nov 2015, May 2017 and May 2019, High Dividend Stocks in Mar 2016, Oct 2017 and Nov 2019, Global Growth Stocks in Apr 2018 and Nov 2020, and Discounted NAV Stocks in Sep 2016, Nov 2018 and May 2021) in the past 6 years, donating net income of around $222,000 to Tzu Chi 慈济 Singapore.

We hope to inspire more Ein55 Graduates to reach out the society, helping others who are in need. More importantly, they have also learned the secrets of making money through investment. When more Ein55 Graduates are successful financially, they could also contribute back to the society to help more people in future (为善最乐).

Discounted Net Asset Value (DNAV) Strategy is valuation of company business, firstly based on the Net Asset Value (NAV) listed in current Balance Sheet. Then, we determine the net cash that would be received if all assets were sold and liabilities paid off.  Various discounts will be applied based on different quality of asset classes.  It is safer to buy stock with share price below the Discounted NAV (much more conservative than price below NAV or Price-to-Book ratio, PB < 1). Unlike PB method mainly applied for asset rich company (eg. property stocks), DNAV method can be applied in non-property or not cash-rich stocks. However, Ein55 Optimism strategies have to be integrated to avoid value trap, i.e. Buy Low Get Lower for undervalue stocks.

The best time to buy global DNAV stocks and 134 Singapore property stocks is always during global stock crisis (eg. Year 2020-2021 during pandemic, 2008—2009 during subprime crisis, etc), not only able to maximize the dividend yield (due to lower entry share price), also could have higher potential of capital gains (when market cycle moves from fear in low optimism to greed in high optimism). Singapore property stock investing is not based on undervalue strategy (Buy Undervalue Sell Overprice) alone, may be integrated with dividend investing, growth investing, swing trading, momentum trading, cyclic investing, defensive investing and other Ein55 strategies.

There are 134 Singapore property stocks (not all are giant stocks with Dr Tee criteria), based on the last price traded (7 May 2021), sorted by 3 key Fundamental Criteria:
1) ROE (a criteria for growth stocks, eg. ROE > 5%),
2) Dividend Yield, DY (a criteria for dividend stocks, eg. DY > 3%),
3) Price-to-Book (PB) ratio, Price/NAV (a criteria for undervalue stocks, eg. PB < 1).

From the table sorted below, over 75% (101/134 stocks) are undervalue (Price to Book ratio, PB < 1), mainly due to COVID-19 stock crisis, affecting property construction business with bearish share prices but property asset valuation remains stable.  There are only 20% (27/134 stocks) have growing businesses (over 5% ROE, Return on Equity) while over 50% (72/134 stocks) were making losses during pandemic in Year 2020. There are nearly 50% (62/134 stocks) were paying dividend but only 22 stocks (16%) having dividend yield over 3%, potential for dividend investing.

No134 SG Property StocksROE (%)PBDY (%)
13Cnergy (SGX: 502)–1.1–
2A-Smart Holdings (SGX: BQC)0.8521.8–
3AEI Corporation (SGX: AWG)–2.6–
4Aims Property Securities Fund (SGX: BVP)–0.41.9
5Asia-Pacific Strategic Investments (SGX: 5RA)–0.8–
6APAC Realty (SGX: CLN)10.621.15.1
7Abterra (SGX: L5I)50.492.1–
8Acromec (SGX: 43F)–1.9–
9Alset International (SGX: 40V)53.451.1–
10Amara Holdings (SGX: A34)–0.5–
11Amcorp Global (SGX: S9B)–0.6–
12AnnAik (SGX: A52)0.2940.31.8
13Astaka Holdings (SGX: 42S)–5.5–
14BBR Holdings (SGX: KJ5)–0.5–
15BRC Asia (SGX: BEC)7.6931.31.3
16Blackgold Natural Resources (SGX: 41H)–––
17Boldtek Holdings (SGX: 5VI)–0.7–
18Bonvests (SGX: B28)–0.50.3
19Boustead Singapore (SGX: F9D)9.011.42.9
20Boustead Projects (SGX: AVM)7.4691.10.8
21Bukit Sembawang Estates (SGX: B61)5.7480.90.9
22Bund Center Investment (SGX: BTE)2.1970.97.3
23CSC Holdings (SGX: C06)4.5310.4–
24CapitaLand (SGX: C31)–0.82.5
25CASA Holdings (SGX: C04)2.6380.35.6
26Chemical Industries (Far East) (SGX: C05)2.7820.42.1
27China International Holdings (SGX: BEH)14.620.39.1
28China Yuanbang Property Holdings (SGX: BCD)5.9910.1–
29Chip Eng Seng Corporation (SGX: C29)–0.44.4
30City Developments (SGX: C09)–0.91.0
31DISA (SGX: 532)–4.3–
32Debao Property Development (SGX: BTF)–0.1–
33ETC Singapore (SGX: 1C0)–0.3–
34Edition (SGX: 5HG)–1.6–
35Engro Corporation (SGX: S44)8.5630.62.0
36Fraser and Neave – F & N (SGX: F99)5.0260.73.5
37Far East Orchard (SGX: O10)0.1240.42.6
38Figtree Holdings (SGX: 5F4)–0.52.9
39First Sponsor Group (SGX: ADN)5.9960.82.2
40Fragrance Group (SGX: F31)0.1330.6–
41Frasers Property (SGX: TQ5)1.4770.50.9
42GYP Properties (SGX: AWS)–0.4–
43Gallant Venture (SGX: 5IG)–0.9–
44Golden Energy and Resources (SGX: AUE)2.1010.7–
45Goodland Group (SGX: 5PC)–0.31.0
46GuocoLand (SGX: F17)2.2340.53.6
47HL Global Enterprises (SGX: AVX)0.2630.4–
48Hatten Land (SGX: PH0)–0.9–
49Heeton Holdings (SGX: 5DP)–0.2–
50Hiap Hoe (SGX: 5JK)–0.40.8
51Hiap Seng Engineering (SGX: 510)–––
52Ho Bee Land (SGX: H13)3.7820.52.9
53Hock Lian Seng Holdings (SGX: J2T)2.080.61.0
54Hong Fok Corporation (SGX: H30)–0.31.2
55Hong Lai Huat Group (SGX: CTO)–0.3–
56Hong Leong Asia (SGX: H22)5.3120.81.0
57Hongkong Land Holdings (SGX: H78)–0.34.5
58Hor Kew Corp (SGX: BBP)0.8610.2–
59Huationg Global (SGX: 41B)–0.2–
60Hwa Hong Corporation (SGX: H19)2.2211.03.3
61IPC Corporation (SGX: AZA)–0.2–
62ISOTeam (SGX: 5WF)–1.1–
63Imperium Crown (SGX: 5HT)–0.2–
64Jasper Investments (SGX: FQ7)–––
65KOP (SGX: 5I1)–0.4–
66KSH Holdings (SGX: ER0)4.7570.66.0
67Keong Hong Holdings (SGX: 5TT)–0.4–
68Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4)–0.91.9
69Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U)–0.94.4
70King Wan Corporation (SGX: 554)0.7530.2–
71Koh Brothers Group (SGX: K75)–0.2–
72Koon Holdings (SGX: 5DL)–––
73KORI Holdings (SGX: 5VC)0.8520.3–
74LHN (SGX: 41O)19.850.94.7
75Ley Choon Group (SGX: Q0X)–1.1–
76Lian Beng Group (SGX: L03)4.060.32.0
77Low Keng Huat (Singapore) (SGX: F1E)7.0070.55.1
78Lum Chang Holdings (SGX: L19)–0.63.3
79Luminor Financial Holdings (SGX: 5UA)–0.5–
80MYP (SGX: F86)–0.4–
81Metro Holdings (SGX: M01)2.150.42.7
82OIO Holdings (SGX: KUX)–––
83OKH Global (SGX: S3N)–0.3–
84OKP (SGX: 5CF)2.6960.53.8
85OneApex (SGX: 5SY)–1.1–
86Oxley Holdings (SGX: 5UX)–1.03.3
87PSL Holdings (SGX: BLL)–0.3–
88Pacific Century Regional Development (SGX: P15)–1.08.7
89Pacific Star Development (SGX: 1C5)–––
90Pan Hong (SGX: P36)15.440.52.4
91Pavillon Holdings (SGX: 596)–0.4–
92Pollux Properties (SGX: 5AE)0.0960.6–
93PropNex (SGX: OYY)34.44.94.9
94Raffles Infrastructure Holdings (SGX: LUY)13.350.5–
95Regal International Group (SGX: UV1)15.284.3–
96Renaissance United (SGX: I11)–0.3–
97Rich Capital Holdings (SGX: 5G4)–1.4–
98Roxy-Pacific Holdings (SGX: E8Z)–1.0–
99Ryobi Kiso (SGX: BDN)–2.2–
100SHS Holdings (SGX: 566)–0.8–
101SLB Development (SGX: 1J0)6.8380.63–
102SP Corporation (SGX: AWE)2.4590.38–
103Sasseur Reit (SGX: CRPU)4.2541.017.06
104Second Chance Properties (SGX: 528)1.7860.781.61
105Sin Heng Heavy Machinery (SGX: BKA)1.0630.331.54
106Sinarmas Land (SGX: A26)3.5450.430.32
107SingHaiyi (SGX: 5H0)–0.46–
108SingHaiyi Group (SGX: 5IC)5.3190.492.63
109Singapore Land Group (SGX: U06)1.230.531.28
110Sinjia Land (SGX: 5HH)–0.95–
111Soilbuild Construction (SGX: S7P)–0.75–
112Straits Trading (SGX: S20)3.3470.712.22
113Sysma Holdings (SGX: 5UO)2.1210.59–
114TA Corporation (SGX: PA3)–0.38–
115T T J Holdings (SGX: K1Q)–0.4212.614
116Tai Sin Electric (SGX: 500)5.3640.8164.348
117Thakral Corporation (SGX: AWI)4.4180.4076.522
118Thomson Medical Group (SGX: A50)–4.946–
119Tiong Seng Holdings (SGX: BFI)–0.2991.562
120Top Global (SGX: BHO)–0.531–
121Tosei Corporation (SGX: S2D)6.1090.5832.585
122Tritech Group (SGX: 5G9)–1.063–
123United Overseas Australia – UOA (SGX: EH5)6.4010.7292.678
124UOL Group (SGX: U14)0.1340.6562.3
125USP Group (SGX: BRS)–0.204–
126Vibrant Group (SGX: BIP)2.4560.307–
127Wee Hur Holdings (SGX: E3B)6.810.4512.439
128Wing Tai Holdings (SGX: W05)0.0880.4541.593
129Yanlord Land Group (SGX: Z25)8.3060.4284.857
130Yeo Hiap Seng (SGX: Y03)–0.8922.21
131Ying Li International Real Estate (SGX: 5DM)–0.391–
132Yoma Strategic Holdings (SGX: Z59)–0.405–
133Yongmao Holdings (SGX: BKX)7.6820.3590.309
134Yongnam Holdings (SGX: AXB)–0.308–

However, not all the 134 Singapore property stocks listed are giant stocks. A growing business in the past may not be sustainable during COVID-19 period and an undervalue stock may remain lagging in share prices for many years, could end up as a crisis stock. Fundamental Analysis alone is not sufficient, a low PB or low PE or high dividend yield stock may be a value trap as this may be the result of lower share price with weakening businesses. Therefore, deeper analysis is required with LOFTP (Level, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical, Personal Analysis) Strategies. 

Let’s learn these 3 global Discounted NAV giant stocks in 3 countries, understanding the business nature, investment clock and unique strategy.

1) Singapore DNAV Stock – Hongkong Land (SGX: H78)

Hongkong Land is part of Jardine Group with over 100 years of history. It has property businesses mainly in Hong Kong, China and Singapore with 61% in investment properties (main source of rental income) and 39% in development properties. The West Bund project in Xuhui Shanghai of China would be major revenue contributor in the next few years.

Hongkong Land is still at low Ein55 Optimism (<25%) but recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $9/share. This stock has Discounted NAV of $15/share (close to NAV, implying very high quality of its asset), providing high safety of margin for long term investors with stable dividend payment (about 4-5% dividend yield, depending on entry price). Assuming extreme devaluation of Hong Kong property market by 50%, Hongkong Land would still have $7.50/share value for very conservative investors.  The “loss” of Hongkong Land in Year 2020 is mainly accounting loss due to devaluation of property but cashflow is still strong to support the dividend payment, behaving as if a REIT.

Recent acquisition of parent company, JSH (SGX: J37) by JMH (SGX: J36), has helped to support the prices of other stocks in Jardine group including Hongkong Land.  Jardine Group may have more corporate actions in future to release the hidden value of subsidiary stocks including Hongkong Land, Jardine Cycle & Carriage – JCC (SGX: C07), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01) and Mandarin Oriental Hotel (SGX: M04). However, the recovery pattern of share prices for undervalue stock can be different from growth stocks. Hongkong Land is more suitable for long term investors with patient, positioning as a mid-fielder stock, good balance between capital gains and dividend as passive income.

Readers may read earlier articles (during pandemic with low optimism prices) by Dr Tee for more details on Jardine Group of stocks including Hongkong Land:
https://www.ein55.com/tag/jardine/

2) Malaysia DNAV Stock – Paramount (Bursa: 1724)

Paramount is a Malaysia property development stock with 50 years of history in businesses. After divestment of education segment business, Paramount has drawn up a new 5-year (2020 – 2024) strategic roadmap to focus on Property development and concentrate on landed developments and integrated developments in Malaysia. In the next 5 years, Paramount plans to venture into overseas property development projects, expecting to contribute approximately 10% of the Group’s revenue. It enjoys recurring income from investment property and minority interest in education business.

Paramount is still at low Ein55 Optimism (<25%) but recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $1.20/share. This stock has Discounted NAV of $2.17/share (20% lower than NAV, partly due to lower value of non-property business), providing high safety of margin for long term investors with stable dividend payment (about 4-5% dividend yield, depending on entry price). Assuming extreme devaluation of Malaysia property market by 50%, Paramount would still have $1.08/share value for very conservative investors.

Malaysia property stock investing is complicated by worse pandemic condition, political instability and weaker consumer purchasing power. Paramount is more suitable for long term investors with patient, positioning as a mid-fielder stock, good balance between capital gains and dividend as passive income.

Readers may read earlier article (during pandemic with low optimism prices) by Dr Tee for more details on other Malaysia stock affected by pandemic:
https://www.ein55.com/tag/malaysia-stocks/

3) Hong Kong / China DNAV Stock – Yuexiu Property (HKEx: 123)

Yuexiu Property is a China property developer company (state-owned enterprise), originated in Guangzhou, expanding property businesses to other 19 cities in China. In 2019, Guangzhou Metro (another state-owned enterprise) becomes the second largest investor of Yuexiu Property, deepening the strategic collaboration between 2 giants (transportation and property).

Yuexiu Property is at moderate low Ein55 Optimism of about 40%, near to Ein55 intrinsic value of $2.20. This stock has Discounted NAV of $1.27/share (much lower than its NAV), higher than its current share price, therefore no safety of margin for very conservative investors. Yuexiu Property may still be considered for growth investing with dividend payment (about 6-7% dividend yield, depending on entry price). Trend-following strategy with S.E.T. (Stop Loss, Entry, Target Prices) trading plan may be integrated into stock investing without DNAV protection.

Yuexiu Property belongs to Yuexiu Group, which also owns 2 other subsidiary stocks, Yuexiu Reit (HKEx: 405) and Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure (HKEx: 1052) which may also be considered for dividend stock investing. Major shareholder and sponsor is Guangzhou local government, providing strong support to Yuexiu Group of stocks.

Readers may read earlier articles by Dr Tee for more details on other global and local property stocks including but not limited to Yuexiu Property:
https://www.ein55.com/category/property-market/

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There are over 1500 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar, you could ask on any global and local stocks including but not limited to 30 STI component stocks:

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

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Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Property Market, Stock Market Tagged: , , , , ,

47 Undervalue SG Property Stocks for Privatization including Perennial (弱肉强食)

Posted on June 13, 2020 Written by
Singapore Undervalue Property Stocks Perennial Privatization

Perennial Real Estate Holdings (SGX: 40S) becomes the next target for privatization. However, not all the acquisition news is good for retail investors. In this article, Dr Tee will share the considerations by Big Boys or major shareholders to acquire or privatize a stock with Perennial as an example, with sharing of Reverse Takeover (RTO) stocks. You will learn the 47 undervalue Singapore property stocks which are profitable with over 50% price discount in asset value.

Interestingly, Perennial started its property business in year 2014 through Reverse Takeover (RTO) of St. James Holdings (entertainment business) which IPO in 2008. RTO is a quick way of “IPO” by acquiring an existing company which could be different business nature. A more famous example would be RTO of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK) by Warren Buffett in year 1965, transforming an original textile manufacturing company into an insurance company.

There are quite a few property related stocks also get listed indirectly through RTO, eg. Hatten (SGX: PH0) and Centurion (SGX: OU8) / (HKEx: 6090). Therefore, a stock investor has to be careful in analysis of stock prices and business fundamental, viewing the RTO company as new IPO company, especially if the business is totally different with new management. So, the past performance (share prices and businesses) would not be meaningful references after RTO.

Perennial original IPO (under St. James) price was $12.95/share which shareholder would “lose” 95% if compare with price of $0.69/share before the privatization offer of $0.95/share. However, Years 2008-2014 was reflection of St James share prices and businesses. Perennial actual stock record should be from Years 2014-2020, share prices vary from about $1 to about $0.30 during the recent Covid-19 crisis.  Perennial is not a giant stock but it is also not a junk stock. The bearish stock prices over the past 6 years are aligned with other Singapore property stocks (quite many are corrected by over 50% in share prices).

However, Perennial is relatively weaker than other Singapore property stocks. Therefore, the recent offer $0.95/share (despite lower than RTO price when Perennial first started in 2014) is considered attractive to investors after RTO. It is getting harder to delist or privatize a company in Singapore, therefore the offer must be significantly higher (38% for this case) to extend the current 82% shareholding to over 90% for mandatory takeover.

Perennial major shareholders include Wilmar (SGX: F34), together with other “big boys”, although 38% premium in offer price seems attractive but this amount (about $277M) will be paid by the new investor, Hopu Fund of China. Perennial has many good quality properties in both Singapore and China, last 1 year has significant cash from investing (sales of property), currently having $120M cash in the company which will be unlocked after privatization. More importantly, the company is undervalue, Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is 0.44 with 56% discount.  This implies that the offer to 18% minority shareholders is technically “free” to major shareholders as Net Asset Value (NAV) is $1.58/share. Assuming PB of only 0.75 (25% discount) as market price (if were to sell the properties today), then the value gained from privatization would be $390M, more than enough to cover $277M cash. 

Nevertheless, it is unlikely for Perennial to sell properties cheaply after privatization. With both high-quality commercial buildings and promising healthcare services, there is always an option for the company to get listed again (could be in other stock exchange) in future with higher valuation after another IPO or even RTO.

A few years ago, Wheelock Properties (SGX: M35) with over 50% discount in PB was acquired by parent company in Hong Kong, Wheelock Co (HKEx: 20), cash unlocked after acquisition was more than cash offered.  Therefore, some cash rich companies have also tried to delist the company but not all the Big Boys are lucky. Previously, Challenger Technologies (SGX: 573) could not pass this barrier due to objection by minority shareholders as the company is fundamentally strong with cash rich. Breadtalk (SGX: CTN) acquisition offer was attractive partly due to severe stock crisis during Covid-10.

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There are 140 property & construction stocks in Singapore (REITs are excluded, see earlier articles by Dr Tee if interested: www.ein55.com/blog), many are undervalue but also losing money, “Buy Low” may simply get lower in share price.

3Cnergy (SGX: 502), A-Smart (SGX: BQC), AEI^ (SGX: AWG), AIMS Property (SGX: BVP), APAC Realty (SGX: CLN), Abterra (SGX: L5I), Acromec (SGX: 43F), Amara (SGX: A34), Amcorp Global (SGX: S9B), AnnAik (SGX: A52), Astaka (SGX: 42S), BBR (SGX: KJ5), BRC Asia (SGX: BEC), BlackGoldNatural (SGX: 41H), Boldtek (SGX: 5VI), Bonvests (SGX: B28), Boustead (SGX: F9D), Boustead Projects (SGX: AVM), Bukit Sembawang (SGX: B61), Bund Center (SGX: BTE), CSC (SGX: C06), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Casa (SGX: C04), Chemical Industries (SGX: C05), China Great Land (SGX: D50), China International (SGX: BEH), China Real Estate (SGX: 5RA), China Yuanbang (SGX: BCD), Chip Eng Seng (SGX: C29), City Development (SGX: C09), DISA (SGX: 532), Debao Property (SGX: BTF), ETC Singapore (SGX: 1C0), Edition (SGX: 5HG), EnGro Corporation (SGX: S44), Fraser and Neave F&N (SGX: F99), Far East Orchard (SGX: O10), Figtree (SGX: 5F4), First Sponsor (SGX: ADN), Fragrance (SGX: F31), Frasers Property (SGX: TQ5), GYP Properties (SGX: AWS), Gallant Venture (SGX: 5IG), Golden Energy (SGX: AUE), Goodland (SGX: 5PC), GuocoLand (SGX: F17), HL Global Enterprises (SGX: AVX), Hatten Land (SGX: PH0), Heeton (SGX: 5DP), Hiap Hoe (SGX: 5JK), Hiap Seng (SGX: 510), Ho Bee Land (SGX: H13), Hock Lian Seng (SGX: J2T), Hong Fok (SGX: H30), Hong Lai Huat (SGX: CTO), Hong Leong Asia (SGX: H22), Hongkong Land USD (SGX: H78), Hor Kew (SGX: BBP), Huationg Global (SGX: 41B), Hwa Hong (SGX: H19), IPC Corp (SGX: AZA), ISOTeam (SGX: 5WF), Imperium Crown (SGX: 5HT), Jasper Investments (SGX: FQ7), KOP (SGX: 5I1), KSH (SGX: ER0), Keong Hong (SGX: 5TT), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), King Wan (SGX: 554), Koh Brothers (SGX: K75), Koon (SGX: 5DL), Kori (SGX: 5VC), LHN (SGX: 41O), Ley Choon (SGX: Q0X), Lian Beng (SGX: L03), Low Keng Huat (SGX: F1E), Lum Chang (SGX: L19), MMP Resources (SGX: F3V), MYP (SGX: F86), Metro (SGX: M01), OIO (SGX: KUX), OKH Global (SGX: S3N), OKP (SGX: 5CF), OneApex (SGX: 5SY), Oxley (SGX: 5UX), PSL (SGX: BLL), Pacific Century (SGX: P15), Pacific Star Development (SGX: 1C5), Pan Hong (SGX: P36), Pavillon (SGX: 596), Perennial Holdings (SGX: 40S), Pollux Properties (SGX: 5AE), PropNex (SGX: OYY), Raffles Infrastructure (SGX: LUY), Regal International (SGX: UV1), Renaissance United (SGX: I11), Rich Capital (SGX: 5G4), Roxy-Pacific (SGX: E8Z), Ryobi Kiso (SGX: BDN), SHS (SGX: 566), SLB Development (SGX: 1J0), SP Corporation (SGX: AWE), Sasseur Reit (SGX: CRPU), Second Chance (SGX: 528), Sin Heng Mach (SGX: BKA), Sinarmas Land (SGX: A26), SingHaiyi (SGX: 5H0), SingHoldings (SGX: 5IC), Singapore-eDev (SGX: 40V), Sinjia Land (SGX: 5HH), Soilbuild Construction Group (SGX: S7P), Starland (SGX: 5UA), Straits Trading (SGX: S20), Swee Hong (SGX: QF6), Sysma (SGX: 5UO), TA (SGX: PA3), TTJ (SGX: K1Q), Tai Sin Electric (SGX: 500), Thakral (SGX: AWI), Thomson Medical Group (SGX: A50), Tiong Seng (SGX: BFI), Top Global (SGX: BHO), Tosei (SGX: S2D), Transcorp (SGX: T19), Tritech (SGX: 5G9), UIC (SGX: U06), UOA (SGX: EH5), UOL (SGX: U14), USP Group (SGX: BRS), Vibrant Group (SGX: BIP), Wee Hur (SGX: E3B), Wing Tai (SGX: W05), Yanlord Land (SGX: Z25), Yeo Hiap Seng (SGX: Y03), Ying Li International (SGX: 5DM), Yoma Strategic (SGX: Z59), Yongmao (SGX: BKX), Yongnam (SGX: AXB), Yorkshine (SGX: MR8).

There are only 47 undervalue (PB < 0.5) Singapore property stocks are profitable in the last 1 year, including Perennial.

From table below, we could see property stocks with PB = $/NAV from 0.13 to 0.5. Despite over 50% discount in share prices over NAV with profitable business, majority of stocks are not giant stocks. An undervalue stock may remain undervalue for a long term, sometimes may be even acquired by Big Boys at low optimism price in a bearish stock market (弱肉强食).

NoNameTickerPB = Price/NAVROE (%)
1Huationg Global41B0.135.3
2Hor KewBBP0.161.0
3Top GlobalBHO0.180.2
4CasaC040.184.5
5ETC Singapore1C00.225.8
6Hong Lai HuatCTO0.231.4
7Hong FokH300.245.6
8Koh BrosK750.241.9
9SP CorpAWE0.244.5
10Pavillon5960.241.1
11HongkongLandH780.250.5
12Heeton5DP0.253.0
13HL Global EntAVX0.271.1
14Tiong SengBFI0.284.0
15Lian BengL030.284.7
16China IntlBEH0.305.6
17Sinarmas LandA260.3015.1
18AnnAikA520.313.3
19TTJK1Q0.342.3
20Vibrant GroupBIP0.343.8
21Keong Hong5TT0.367.3
22Far East OrchardO100.372.1
23Chemical IndC050.388.8
24Pan HongP360.3815.4
25Ho Bee LandH130.399.4
26Hiap Hoe5JK0.392.9
27King Wan5540.401.6
28LHN41O0.408.3
29ThakralAWI0.416.7
30MetroM010.415.6
31Yanlord LandZ250.4111.9
32Wing TaiW050.421.3
33EnGroS440.424.7
34BonvestsB280.430.4
35Kori5VC0.430.2
36GuocoLandF170.436.1
37Perennial Hldgs40S0.440.1
38Low Keng HuatF1E0.441.9
39Straits TradingS200.445.6
40UICU060.448.3
41Pollux Prop5AE0.442.5
42SingHaiyi5H00.440.1
43Wee HurE3B0.448.8
44SingHoldings5IC0.4515.4
45Lum ChangL190.459.1
46Chip Eng SengC290.483.6
47Hong Leong AsiaH220.504.5

Based on Dr Tee criteria, from the 47 shortlisted Singapore property stocks above, only 8 are giant stocks. A few undervalue property giant stocks were mentioned in earlier articles (see https://www.ein55.com/tag/property-stocks/), eg. GuocoLand (SGX: F17) and Hongkong Land (SGX: H78). However, not all major shareholders are interested of delisting the undervalue property stocks because some are family owned for decades, value of shares may recover to NAV only when they are ready to sell one day.  It may be hard for Big Boys or external funds to acquire. For example, Li Ka-shing was hoping to acquire Hongkong Land in 1980s but was rejected with tighter control by parent stock from Jardine Group, Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36) and Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37).

Property stocks (both Singapore and regional stock markets in Malaysia and Hong Kong, etc) are cyclic in nature. Therefore, market cycle investing strategy is required with alignment to Optimism Strategies to Buy Low Sell High, as well as good understanding the local property market cycle.  Property stocks is an integration of stock and property markets, knowledge in both markets are required to enhance the chances of success in investing.

Undervalue stocks are bonus for additional safety (huge discount in price below value with high quality asset of property), especially for property stocks but mainly suitable for patient long term investors.  A smart investor may integrate undervalue stocks with dividend strategies. This is suitable for passive income investing, similar to property investment, an alternative to REITs but an investor of property stock (non-REIT) could also enjoy the capital gains (or suffer the losses) of property valuations, not just the rental income. For example, many property stocks (including Hongkong Land) are lower in valuation (affecting earnings) in Hong Kong but cash flow is not much affected.

So, reading between the lines for 3 financial reports (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow statement) are important to fully understand the property stocks, especially property development company has different project cycles which may last a few years, resulting in cyclic property business results and stock prices. So, Level Analysis of Level 1 (individual stock), Level 2 (Property Sector), Level 3 (local country) and Level 4 (world economy and global stock market) are required.

There are hundreds of global property giant stocks (may not need to be undervalue), an investor just needs to select 1 of Top 10 property stocks, adding to a dream team stock portfolio of 10-20 giant stocks (eg. best stock in each sector, min 3 sectors: REIT, Healthcare, F&B, Oil & Gas, Bank, Commodity, Insurance, etc). Value investors may own these 10-20 companies at undervalue price to work for us through shareholding, generating incomes (capital gains of higher share prices and dividend payment) over a lifetime (even beyond own retirement) with yearly review of giant stock status to continue the holding. So, every stock crisis is an opportunity to Buy Low with condition that it must be a giant stock.

There are 30 STI index component stocks including property stocks: CapitaLand, Hongkong Land, City Development and UOL (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

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Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

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Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Cycle Investing, Property Market, Stock Market, Value Investing Tagged: , , ,

7 CapitaLand Giant REITs for Dividend (CMT + CCT = CICT) (双剑合璧)

Posted on April 29, 2020 Written by
CapitaLand Giant REITs for Dividend

CapitaLand is Temasek property giant stock, having 2 giant Singapore REITs: CapitaLand Mall Trust (CMT) and CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CCT). Many Singapore investors like REITs for passive income generation through quarterly dividend payment. After the announcement of merging, both REITs suffer about 40% price correction during global stock crisis with Coronavirus fear, dividend yields are more than 6%, attractive for long term investors.

Some potential REIT investors would like to know should they invest in CMT or CCT before the merging, which one has more potential, or should they wait until the merging of 2 REITs into CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT), the largest Singapore REIT by June 2020.

Read the article further to find out the critical answers for CMT and CCT, not learning only 2 REITs but all 7 stocks related to parent stock CapitaLand, including 4 REITs and trusts in the same group: Ascendas REIT, Ascott Residence Trust, Ascendas India Trust and CapitaLand Retail China Trust.

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CapitaLand is the largest property developer in Asia (after merging with Ascendas and Singbridge), becoming a key Temasek property investment portfolio.  CapitaLand has total of 6 REITs / Business Trust in Singapore:

1) CapitaLand (SGX: C31) – Singapore Property Giant Stock

2) CapitaLand Mall Trust, CMT (SGX: C38U) – Retail REIT Giant Dividend Stock

3) CapitaLand Commercial Trust, CCT (SGX: C61U) – Office REIT Giant Dividend Stock

4) Ascendas REIT (SGX: A17U) – Industrial REIT Giant Dividend Stock

5) Ascott Residence Trust (SGX: HMN) – Hospitality REIT Dividend Stock

6) Ascendas India Trust (SGX: CY6U) – Business Trust Dividend Stock

7) CapitaLand Retail China Trust (SGX: AU8U) – Retail REIT Dividend Stock

In summary, all 7 CapitaLand group of stocks have reasonable strong business fundamental, all 6 REITs / trusts may be considered for dividend investing but only 3 of them are giant REITs stocks (based on Dr Tee giant criteria): CMT, CCT and Ascendas REIT. Sibling stocks of Ascott Residence Trust, Ascendas India Trust and CapitaLand Retail China Trust are relatively weaker, more suitable for pure dividend investing but subject to cyclic stock market risk (eg. capital loss during global stock crisis with limited long term growth). Parent stock, Capitaland, is a blue chip stock, behaving as if a fund with all the subsidiary stocks, more suitable for low capital investor who needs diversification.

There are 30 STI index component stocks including CapitaLand Mall Trust and CapitaLand Commercial Trust (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), HongkongLand (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

By law, 90% of REIT incomes has to be redistributed back to shareholders in the form of dividend, therefore it is a popular passive income generator. If a REIT pay 4 times yearly, an investor with 3 REITs could receive 12 payments yearly, helping to offset monthly expenses. When return from monthly dividend is more than monthly expenses, an investor would become financial free. However, certain REITs may not pay consistent dividend due to unstable business and a few could even go bankrupt if not properly managed. Business Trust (eg. Ascendas India Trust) seems similar to REIT but it is not required by law to pay dividend, therefore creating an uncertainty in the future which dividend payment is not guaranteed.

In this article, we will focus on 2 giant REITs, CMT and CCT which will be merged soon. Sharing is for educational purpose, please make your own decision. Before merging announcement, CMT performs relatively better than CCT from overall investing consideration.  So, CCT investors would benefit more than CMT investor.

CapitaLand Giant REITs for Dividend CCT CMT

The merging deal is for CMT to acquire CCT by exchange every share of CCT with 0.72 share of CMT + cash $0.259/share.  Since the announcement from 22 Jan 2020 until today, CMT and CCT share prices are closely correlated as mirror image with this formula:

CCT = 0.72 CMT + 0.259

It means after the merging announcement, there is not much difference now as CMT and CCT prices movement of stocks follow the equation above closely. Even if an investor is interested in CMT, the decision of whether to invest now or after official merging in June 2020, should be based on stock market outlook, not expecting any drastic change in share price after the official merging.  In fact, over the past 2 months of global stock crisis, both CMT and CCT dropped by about 40% in share prices, even after recovering in the last few weeks, CMT is still at low optimism < 25%. In general, before merging, CMT is more defensive while CCT is more cyclic, therefore future CICT REIT may behave in between both REITs, more cyclic than CMT, more defensive than CCT.

Coronavirus pandemic has affected both CMT and CCT as some tenants may not pay rents on time but this could be recovered later when Coronavirus has ended or fading away over the next few months.  Occupancy rates of both REITs are high (about 99%), any withdrawal by tenant (eg. a few weaker F&B or consumer companies may not be able to sustain) may be quickly replaced by new tenant but rental increase would be limited. If Coronavirus is not a long term issue (under the worst case, vaccine could be developed in about 1 year), major correction in share prices for either CMT or CCT could be an opportunity to accumulate with dividend yield around 6%. Assuming the worst case of losing 20% tenants (dropping from 99% to 80% occupancy) if Coronavirus may stay for 1 more year with 20% people in the world staying at home during lockdown, average dividend yield is correct to around 5%, still better than keeping cash in bank with only 1% dividend. When crisis is over, an investor could enjoy the capital gains with potential share price appreciation due to market greed.

Before merging, CMT and CCT already has joint portfolio, eg. Raffles City (40% CMT, 60% CCT). After merging, the new CICT REIT would dominate both retail shopping malls and offices in Singapore, having more capital to expand in overseas.  However, inorganic growth through more acquisition (eg. overseas properties) may or may not add value to CICT as it depends on expertise of REIT manager, able to find high quality properties at discounted prices (eg. during economic crisis), adding more potential to DPU (dividend per unit). Over expansion sometimes may result in higher risk (higher gearing ratio, which would become higher after merging as CMT has to pay some cash to CCT investors) but acceptable for CICT with dual level sponsors of CapitaLand and Temasek.

There could be more merging and acquisition activities during the global stock crisis. A giant stock does not need to be the “biggest” company, more importantly, strong in fundamental with growing business, therefore even a small company could be a giant stock.

A smart investor may consider only the strongest subsidiary giant stock of CapitaLand group, which is protected by the sponsor CapitaLand, which is further protected by another bigger sponsor, Temasek.  This implies for the giant stock to fail (eg. go bankrupt), it has to hurt CapitaLand or even Temasek first.  However, safer stocks may not be the best choice for investment as growth are limited.

There are 52 REITs and Business Trusts stocks including CapitaLand Mall Trust and CapitaLand Commercial Trust (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
AIMS APAC Reit (SGX: O5RU), ARA Hospitality Trust USD (SGX: XZL), ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust (SGX: K2LU), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Ascendas India Trust (SGX: CY6U), Ascott Trust (SGX: HMN), Asian Pay Tv Trust (SGX: S7OU), BHG Retail Reit (SGX: BMGU), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Retail China Tr (SGX: AU8U), CDL Hospitality Trust (SGX: J85), Cromwell Reit EUR (SGX: CNNU), Cromwell Reit SGD (SGX: CSFU), Dasin Retail Trust (SGX: CEDU), Eagle Hospitality Trust USD (SGX: LIW), EC World Reit (SGX: BWCU), Elite Commercial Reit (SGX: MXNU), ESR-REIT (SGX: J91U), Far East Hospitality Trust (SGX: Q5T), First Reit (SGX: AW9U), Frasers Centrepoint Trust (SGX: J69U), Frasers Hospitality Trust (SGX: ACV), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), FSL Trust (SGX: D8DU), HPH Trust SGD (SGX: P7VU), HPH Trust USD (SGX: NS8U), IREIT Global (SGX: UD1U), Keppel Infrastructure Trust (SGX: A7RU), Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT (SGX: CMOU), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), Lendlease Reit (SGX: JYEU), Lippo Malls Trust (SGX: D5IU), Manulife Reit (SGX: BTOU), Mapletree Commmercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (SGX: RW0U), NetLink NBN Trust (SGX: CJLU), OUE Commercial Reit (SGX: TS0U), ParkwayLife Reit (SGX: C2PU), Prime US Reit (SGX: OXMU), RHT HealthTrust (SGX: RF1U), Sabana Reit (SGX: M1GU), Sasseur Reit (SGX: CRPU), Soilbuild Business Space Reit (SGX: SV3U), SPH Reit (SGX: SK6U), Starhill Global Reit (SGX: P40U), Suntec Reit (SGX: T82U), United Hampshire US Reit (SGX: ODBU).

Learn from Dr Tee 4hr Free investment course on global dividend giant stocks to collect passive income during low optimism in stock crisis, then enjoying capital gains with growing share prices when crisis is over.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 members.

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)
Filed Under: Property Market, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Value Investing Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Grandparents Blue Chip Stock SPH (远虑近忧)

Posted on April 7, 2020 Written by
Blue Chip Stock SPH T39 SGX SPHReit

Singapore Press Holdings (SGX: T39), SPH, is a well-known blue chip stock with 35 years of history of press business. It is popular especially among “grandparents” level of investors as a passive income generator through dividend payment.

In the past (over 20 years ago), there was little competition in this monopoly business, therefore SPH could gain income easily through advertisements with more circulations of hardcopy newspapers. However, in the internet era over the past 10+ years, disruptive technologies have changed the rules of the game, providing more channels of news (mostly free) through webpages, blogs, videos and social media (eg. Facebook).

As a result, number of SPH newspapers readers have been declining over the past decade (while Facebook and other internet users are booming), resulting in gradual falling of business fundamentals (revenue, earning, cashflow, even dividend) during the same period. The share price of SPH has fallen by half from the peak price of $5+/share, supressed further by recent global stock crisis, dropping to only 1/3 of peak price, $1.52/share, the lowest point at least for the past 26 years. Dividend yield is 7.1%, seems impressive (second highest in 30 STI component stocks, just behind Capital Mall Trust) but this could be a value trap.

SPH Historical Stock Prices T39 SGX

A blue chip stock suitable for grandparents time may not be suitable for next generation now. SPH has lost the giant stock title (based on Dr Tee criteria) since 10+ years ago. Long term investing is not simply buy any stock and hold, especially for weaker fundamental stock in a sunset industry (monopoly is not a protection) of press business, buying low in prices would become lower in long term. SPH is a classic example as company never lost money, simply making less profits each year, long term stock investors may suffer huge capital losses if never review the business condition for decade, assuming a stock paying dividend yearly must be worth holding for lifetime.

The high dividend yield (DY = Dividend / Share Price) is mainly generated by share prices falling (1/3) more than falling of dividend payment (1/2) over the past decade. A common mistake of beginner in dividend stock investing is to pursue high dividend yield or simply check company is profitable (SPH has over 5% ROE for the past decade, not a junk stock, despite it is not a giant stock). The understanding of economic moat and business climate is crucial which is disadvantaged to SPH with popularity of internet, full with free news (including when you read this article, no need to pay even 1 cent to SPH).

This negative business cycle would continue, making harder for SPH to improve the financial condition with press business segment, despite promoting digital media over the past few years and reduce the workforce to save cost. 《人无远虑，必有近忧》is a Chinese idiom of wisdom, educating that one needs to have a long term plan, otherwise there might be risks in near future.

SPH new management may know there is a natural limitation in press business (despite considering 101 ways of improvement), therefore a solution way is to diversify into other business. Since SPH with P = Press, therefore it is hard to abandon press business overnight, especially this is an important mission empowered by government to ensure true news are shared with people (instead of internet, sometimes could have fake news).

So, an easy way out is to create second revenue Pillar of SPH with P = Property. Over the past decade, SPH has successfully establish a portfolio of properties (eg. Clementi Mall, Paragon, Seletar Mall, Rail Mall, etc) and even spin off another stock, SPH Reit (SGX: SK6U), to collect rental for some of the properties. SPH Reit is a young REIT with reasonably good business performance but share price is also corrected by 40% over the past 2 months of global stock crisis. In fact, SPH property business contributes to over 50% net profit of company, about 2 times of press business, one day may become Singapore “Property” Holdings.

Besides, SPH also diversifies the businesses to healthcare (eg. Orange Valley Nursing Home), education (eg. Mindchamps) and even Telco (M1 through partnership with Keppel Corp, another blue chip stock which also depends on property business to last through cold winter of oil & gas crisis). However, unlike property business which may be more passive in nature (investment decision), other businesses in different sectors could be out of circle of expertise for SPH, results of diversification have to be proven over time (so far property business is proven to be in right path).

For long term stock investors of SPH who have been making losses (more than 50% capital loss, even if collecting dividend yearly), may be in a dilemma of whether to cut loss (painful) or give SPH a chance to grow in property (proven) and other new businesses (still uncertain) beyond press business. One possible option is to apply “Change Horse” strategy as shared in earlier article, which is to sell a weaker fundamental stock, using the remaining capital to buy another giant stock with strong business fundamental (eg. existing competitors of SPH, internet related giant stocks which have growing businesses with more readers each month) on the same day, as if stock is never sold, just name is changed.

If not, at least SPH stock investor may consider to change P of SPH from Press to Property through SPH Reit (swapping between parent and subsidiary stocks) which focuses on property rental (may not be a giant REIT but performance is better than SPH as a whole). In this way, decade of downtrend in SPH business may be changed to potential decade of uptrend in SPH Reit business (with condition REIT manager is making the right decisions, eg. buying new property at lower price during crisis, etc).

The story of SPH has many hidden learning lessons. Firstly, there are few blue chip stocks which investors could buy and hold for lifetime as disruptive technologies (eg. another grandparents blue chip stock, Comfortdelgro with new challenger in taxi business but condition is more stable than SPH) may change the rule of game or there could be unexpected business crisis at certain point of time (eg. SARS and Coronavirus crisis to airlines sector but this is a short term risk). A smart investor has to regularly monitor the business at least with half-yearly annual reports. Buy a stock means one is in partnership with company doing business together, sharing the pains (if losses or less profits) and fortunes (if more profits which could justify more dividend payment).

Besides, SPH press business is a mirror of some individual who could not control own active job (eg. could be a worker in a declining semiconductor sector or a staff who does not have pay increment for years, etc) as they have been working for decades, not able to change the profession easily. So, if one could learn to convert the active income (salary from a job who may not have a bright future prospect) into 10-20 giant stocks, then literary one has 10-20 “jobs” which could generate money at the same time. The best is these additional incomes don’t need active “work”, therefore it is called passive income with dividend yearly or even quarterly, when holding long enough, potential capital gains due to growing business (with condition focusing in a portfolio of giant stocks, ideally buying low during global stock crisis). If these 10-20 giant stocks could pass the yearly certification process as a giant stock, then an investor may have option to hold for long term or even for lifetime or passing to the next generation as family wealth (this is common for those rich families with investment funds but individual may pass a few giant stocks to the next generation).

Dr Tee is still a long term supporter of SPH newspaper (not stock, but a reader), could not change the habit of reading daily newspaper for several decades. Personally, I hope SPH could continue to be strong in property and new business, so that the press business is sustainable.

So, until SPH becomes a giant stock again (to be proven, see if could pass Dr Tee criteria one day), an investor has the choice to invest in over 1500 global giant stocks, supported by growing business.

In Year 2020, SPH is officially removed from 30 STI index component stocks (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing, not just buying grandparents blue chips stocks):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

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Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

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Temasek Acquires Crisis Stock Keppel Corp (趁虚而入)

Posted on April 3, 2020 Written by
Temasek acquires Keppel Corp BN4 stock

Temasek has offered partial acquisition to Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4) shareholders at the price of $7.35/share up to 51% ownership over 1 year period (with some conditions applied). Since this is not a full acquisition, some investors may be confused of what is fair price for Keppel Corp. Let’s study this acquisition offer in details.

Temasek owns 20.45% of Keppel Corp, intending to purchase shares owned by remaining shareholders (100 – 20.45% = 79.55%) to top up to 51% (still need 51% – 20.45% = 30.55%). So, it is partial acquisition of 30.55/79.55 = 38.4%. It means for every 1000 shares, 384 unit will be acquired.

The offer price of Temasek at $7.35 is about 20% premium over the average price before acquisition, aligned with several other acquisitions in Singapore. However, it only has 38.4% power, not the same as 100% power as other full acquisition (eg. Breadtalk current acquisition offer of $0.77, price would surge near to this price overnight after the announcement). Assuming the Keppel Corp share price is $5/share (on certain day), the theoretical share price after 38.4% partial acquisition = $5 + (7.35 – $5) x 0.384 = $5.90/share. Reader may replace this equation of $5 share price with any latest share price of Keppel Corp before acquisition.

Over the past 1 month of global stock crisis, Singapore stocks fall by about 30% in average but Keppel Corp only falls about 20%, aligning with 38.4% potential acquisition by Temasek which is about 1/3, therefore the stock corrections is also reduced by about 1/3 from 30% to 20%.

It means the global stock crisis still has about 60% impact on Keppel Corp prices. Therefore, an investor has to make decision mainly based on global stock crisis and current stock market condition with Keppel Corp value, not to assume price would recover to $7.35/share price eventually.

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Keppel Corp is a diversified corporation with 4 businesses: offshore &marine, property, infrastructure and investment. The 2 main pillars are Property (Keppel Land, contributing to about 50% company profits) and Oil & Gas (Keppel O&M, main source of losses over the past few years). Over the past 5 years after the oil price fell from $100 to $27/barrel, Keppel Corp suffers directly as main clients reduce the capital expenditure (eg. oil rigs), therefore Oil & Gas becomes a losing segment. 

Since 2015 crude oil crisis, Keppel Corp has temporary lost the giant stock title, currently a marginal giant (likely will become giant stock again after oil & gas sector recovery). Luckily Keppel Corp still has 50% earnings from Property (eg. Keppel Land and Keppel Reit), even Oil & Gas is a loss for several years (recovering to small profits in last 1 year), the entire company as a whole could still make a profit. Compared with competitor or sibling, Sembcorp Marine (SGX: S51, also owned by Temasek through Sembcorp Industries) which has full risk exposure to oil & gas crisis, losing money for several years, resulting in share prices falling from $5 to $0.70 (last 17 years low).

Some may think it is “cheaper” to invest in Sembcorp Marine stock (85% correction) compared to Keppel Corp stock ($13 falling to $5/share during oil & gas crisis, about 60% correction). This comparison is only valid if both companies are giant stocks (which are not) because “crisis is not opportunity” if business fundamental is weak, eg for the case of Sembcorp Marine. For Keppel Corp, it is still a 50% giant stock due to strong property business. Therefore, investor of Keppel Corp is actually investing in value of Keppel Corp property (main value) while taking advantage of falling share price (due to Oil & Gas crisis). It was a good move in year 2015 (beginning of oil & gas crisis) for Keppel Corp to offer full acquisition of Keppel Land which 100% profits of property business goes to Keppel Corp, offset the losses in Oil & Gas segment in Keppel O&M.

Assuming Temasek could successfully own 51% of Keppel Corp by end of 2020, it is a full control of company. This may allow possibilities of strategic merging of Temasek subsidiaries companies (eg. Keppel O&M and Sembcorp Marine) or restructuring of Temasek companies, eg. Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Industries (Temasek nearly has 50% control), etc, to maximize the asset values.

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During crude oil crisis with Keppel Corp at low optimism prices, Temasek leverages on crisis to have majority control of Keppel Corp at reasonable low price of $7.35/share. This also provides an option for Keppel Corp investors to sell for 20% profit. However, the global stock crisis has disturbed the plans as prices of Keppel Corp are falling even lower than before acquisition news. 

Analysis on Keppel Corp is beyond stock and Temasek, also requires understanding of property market and crude oil commodity market. So, it is a stock with complicated interactions of market signals, reflecting in final share prices. 

Temasek acquires Keppel Corp BN4

Here is a special Ein55 style, 50% Discount Method for investing in Keppel Corp during crisis (with or without Temasek acquisition) with multiple entries to fight against unknown market crisis ahead. Assuming $10 is a common high level prices (occurred during when economy and crude oil market are bullish), an investor may apply 50% discount in prices each time before each multiple low due several unforeseen market crisis.

$10 = High Level Price (potential future selling price level)

$5 = Crude Oil & Stock Crisis (3 times in 2009, 2016, 2020) after 50% discount x $10

$2.50 = Global Financial Crisis (17 years low) after another 50% discount x $5

$1.25 = Great Depression (20 years low) after another 50% discount x $2.50

This is a non-linear version of multiple entries for very conservative investor who hopes to buy low but afraid of prices could get lower. Assuming all the crisis come (hopefully not), this is average price after 3 entries (like Keppel Corp with property pillar could still survive):

($5 + $2.50 + $1.25) / 3 = $2.92

This is lower than using linear average down method at low optimism (assuming 3 entries with $1 lower each time):

($5 + $4 + $3) / 3 = $4

Each method (linear or non-linear 50% discount) has its benefits. Linear method is more likely to achieve in practical market, for those who wish to reduce downside risk through averaging (eg. 3 times x 33% capital). Non-linear method is for very conservative investor, demanding 50% discount each time before willing to take out precious cash from the pocket for investment. During the long holding period (could be 1-3 years, depending on severity of crisis), Keppel Corp investor may be given an average of 4-5% dividend yield (past 10+ years record), assuming the dividend is also cut by 50% due to crisis, one could still get about 2% dividend yield which is higher than fixed deposit in banks with 1% interest rate. After the crisis is over, assuming the average entry price is only $5 (only 1 crisis experienced), an investor may not need to sell at $10 average high prices for 100%, could even sell near to Temasek fair acquisition price of $7.35 which is over 40% higher than $5 price.

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Charlie Munger (partner of Warren Buffett) said the big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting. Global stock crisis may happen only every 5 to 10 years. Similar to a lion ambushed, waiting patiently for target, when opportunity comes near, only then strike for higher chance of winning. It is the same for current global stock crisis, for investors “ambushed” for many years, it could be the right time to plan for a strategy to take action in stocks.

Frankly speaking, there are over 100 global giant property stocks and 44 global oil & gas giant stocks (based on Dr Tee criteria), which are much stronger than Keppel Corp. Some of these giant stocks are also falling in prices 20% – 50% recently, “Crisis is Opportunity” investing in these growing business (value) with significant discount in prices.

There are at least 26 Temasek / GLC stocks in Singapore including Keppel Corp, controlling shareholder with 15% or more ownership directly or indirectly (investor needs to focus only on giant Temasek stocks):
Singtel (SGX: Z74), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), SIA Engineering (SGX: S59), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Sembcorp Marine (SGX: S51), Olam (SGX: O32), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Ascott Hospitality Trust (SGX: HMN), Ascendas Hospitality Trust (SGX: Q1P), CapitaLand Retail China Trust (SGX: AU8U), Ascendas-iTrust (SGX: CY6U), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Keppel Infrastructure Trust (SGX: A7RU), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree NAC Trust (SGX: RW0U).

Temasek stocks portfolio also affect about 15% of STI index stocks, which has strong impact on Singapore stock market. Here are 30 STI component stocks:
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), HongkongLand (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

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Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 members.

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Investment Money Has Eyes (水涨船高)

Posted on March 22, 2020 Written by
Stock Investment Money

Money has “eyes”, will find its way through the global investment markets (stocks, properties, commodities, bond, forex, etc), looking for higher and quicker return in bull market (eg. stock and property markets with stronger economy); seeking safe haven market for safety during bear market (eg. more cash in bank or higher demand in bond market with weaker economy).

When investment market is fearful, fund with global money would flow from stocks to bonds (especially for Level 3 country level bond, eg. US treasury bond) due to safety, resulting in higher bond price, therefore lower bond yield. US 10 years treasury bond yield even dropped to about 0.5% during the recent flash stock market crash, recovering to around 1.1% recently, but still at historical low level.

A few key points on investment money flow:

1) US is No 1 world economy, a safe haven, despite lower interest rate (0%), USD is stronger during current bear market, therefore USD/SGD at high optimism, about 1.45 exchange rate. Similarly, usually emerging market currency would be stronger during a bull market. Forex traders or overseas investors (require forex consideration in stock or property investment) have to understand impact of economy and stock market, etc, on each pair of forex.

2) US government bond yield at 1% is no longer for investment, more for safety. Therefore, it is possible even for bond market to have major correction (price down, yield up) but only when confidence of country is affected and there is opportunity in stock market recovery, then fund would flow from bond market or cash (in bank or under pillow) to stock market again.

3) When market sentiment is fearful, even Level 1, individual bond (corporate bond) would suffer but bond has fixed income and guaranteed for principal upon maturity, therefore it is possible to invest in corporate bond with higher return (eg. over 5% bond yield) but need to focus on shorter term bond (<6-12 months to avoid higher risk during potential global financial crisis) with strong business fundamental (unlikely to default in bond, supported by strong asset, earning or cashflow with lower debt).

Current global stock market crisis (about 30% is US / Singapore, 40% in Europe) is only a stock crisis due to fear (technical recession with falling in stock prices), not yet a global financial crisis (with declining economy) but investor has to monitor very closely, especially the 2 black swans of Coronavirus condition and Crude Oil market price war, making crucial decision before summer (Jun-July 2020).

Since global Quantitative Easing (QE or printing of money) is back again, the natural balance among the investment markets would be affected. With QE, it is possible for both stock and bond market to rise (flooding of money) and drop (exit of QE) together, not necessarily opposite to each other (usually when there is no QE).

Recent global stock crisis is a major reversal of how the smart money may flow among the 5 major investment markets (cash in bank, stock, bond, property, commodity, forex).

Readers should take proactive actions in next few months, especially for stock market, many global giant stocks are at very attractive discount (some even more than 50% correction) but positioning requires a unique combination of counter-trend and trend-following strategies aligned with own personality.

Learn from Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to position in current global stock crisis: What stocks and other investments to Buy, When to Buy / Sell.

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3M of Stock Investment Plan (Hongkong Land)

Posted on March 16, 2020 Written by
3M of Stock Investment Plan Hongkong Land

Some investors may think Hongkong Land (SGX: H78) or any giant stock at 0% optimism is a no-brainer stock investment, simply buy now (Price-to-Book, PB ratio of 0.26 with 74% discount in price for high quality property asset) and hold long term for crisis to be over with price recovery, sure will make money with capital gains.

Above is half understanding based on pure “Method”. There are 3M to consider:

3M Investment = Method x Mind X Money Management.

Whenever any 1 of the 3M is weak or zero, entire investment plan would fail due to multiplication effect.

Let me extend the earlier sentence from 1M to 3M:

Hongkong Land is a good buy now at current price, if one is prepared to hold long term with contrarian strategy (including diversification over a portfolio of 10 global giant stocks) which is comfortable with one’s personality (eg. the person will not check share price daily, will not be sleepless each night when seeing Hongkong Land stock price may fall by another 50% in next 6-12 months). If the person is willing to lock the Hongkong Land stock share in a drawer for at least 5 years (only check the price and business fundamental quarterly), then probably near to the rare quality of 5% group of contrarian investors. The person would be similar to Warren Buffett mindset, able to take the finger pointing by others (eg. “you are wrong, should not buy, now is a bad market, etc”).

Let’s do a simulation of application of only 1M (Method). After buying Hongkong Land (assuming the same low price now with PB ratio = 0.26), assuming Coronavirus could be out of control in US & Europe in next few months, many death reported, global stock markets drop from current mid optimism to low optimism, Hongkong Land may fall down another 25% in price. If global financial crisis is induced due to weaker economy over 6-12 months, then Hongkong Land could fall down another 25%, perhaps the PB could be 0.26/2 = 0.13 then (more discount given).

If the person is very comfortable with falling in share prices (treat is as different degree of discount, no need to buy at the most discount with the lowest price) as main concern is to ensure asset value with business won’t be affected in long term. If there is a global financial crisis, it is possible for Hong Kong property valuation to drop 20%, especially Hong Kong property market is at relatively higher price or optimism level over the past 20+ years but it usually won’t last long in this way), then it is a good buy for this person, especially if the position of Hongkong Land stock is no more than 10% of entire portfolio.

Some investors may think if one follows exactly as the Method required (either long term investing or short term trading), then there is no harm to follow. However, once the person make an surprised loss (Mind Control is affected), especially over trade or invest in only 1 stock (poor Money Management).

In short, when finding a Method for stock investment, learn and choose a strategy aligned with own personality (many factors to consider), not just because it is a “sure win” Method. Due to mismatch of personality, this is why traders mindset may fail in investing, while investor mindset may fail in trading. There is also 5% of rare group which could invest and trade, having “dual” personalities, able to make money in both short term trading and long term investing. For majority of the people, there is no need to be greedy to earn all the money in the market, just focus on 1 way comfortable with oneself, be the master with years of practice with stock market experience as the teacher.

There are 30 STI index component stocks including Hongkong Land (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

There is no get-rich-quick or sure-win investment or trading method. Each “Method” requires own experience with own “Money” through own “Mind” to convert into a skill which is repeated. Some may take more time, some may be faster to achieve this goal. The current stock market crisis could be a pain to many people but will be helpful in reshaping one’s strategy (经一事、长一智).

Apply probability investing in planning of stock investment or trading. High probability does not mean 100%, even cash deposit in bank is not 100% safe. A weak bank could go bankrupt, $1 Million deposit could only get $75k compensation. Risk tolerance level is also one of the “PA” (Personal Analysis).

There are 140 property & construction stocks in Singapore including Hongkong Land (47 of them are undervalue with PB<1):
3Cnergy (SGX: 502), A-Smart (SGX: BQC), AEI^ (SGX: AWG), AIMS Property (SGX: BVP), APAC Realty (SGX: CLN), Abterra (SGX: L5I), Acromec (SGX: 43F), Amara (SGX: A34), Amcorp Global (SGX: S9B), AnnAik (SGX: A52), Astaka (SGX: 42S), BBR (SGX: KJ5), BRC Asia (SGX: BEC), BlackGoldNatural (SGX: 41H), Boldtek (SGX: 5VI), Bonvests (SGX: B28), Boustead (SGX: F9D), Boustead Projects (SGX: AVM), Bukit Sembawang (SGX: B61), Bund Center (SGX: BTE), CSC (SGX: C06), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Casa (SGX: C04), Chemical Industries (SGX: C05), China Great Land (SGX: D50), China International (SGX: BEH), China Real Estate (SGX: 5RA), China Yuanbang (SGX: BCD), Chip Eng Seng (SGX: C29), City Development (SGX: C09), DISA (SGX: 532), Debao Property (SGX: BTF), ETC Singapore (SGX: 1C0), Edition (SGX: 5HG), EnGro Corporation (SGX: S44), Fraser and Neave F&N (SGX: F99), Far East Orchard (SGX: O10), Figtree (SGX: 5F4), First Sponsor (SGX: ADN), Fragrance (SGX: F31), Frasers Property (SGX: TQ5), GYP Properties (SGX: AWS), Gallant Venture (SGX: 5IG), Golden Energy (SGX: AUE), Goodland (SGX: 5PC), GuocoLand (SGX: F17), HL Global Enterprises (SGX: AVX), Hatten Land (SGX: PH0), Heeton (SGX: 5DP), Hiap Hoe (SGX: 5JK), Hiap Seng (SGX: 510), Ho Bee Land (SGX: H13), Hock Lian Seng (SGX: J2T), Hong Fok (SGX: H30), Hong Lai Huat (SGX: CTO), Hong Leong Asia (SGX: H22), Hongkong Land USD (SGX: H78), Hor Kew (SGX: BBP), Huationg Global (SGX: 41B), Hwa Hong (SGX: H19), IPC Corp (SGX: AZA), ISOTeam (SGX: 5WF), Imperium Crown (SGX: 5HT), Jasper Investments (SGX: FQ7), KOP (SGX: 5I1), KSH (SGX: ER0), Keong Hong (SGX: 5TT), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), King Wan (SGX: 554), Koh Brothers (SGX: K75), Koon (SGX: 5DL), Kori (SGX: 5VC), LHN (SGX: 41O), Ley Choon (SGX: Q0X), Lian Beng (SGX: L03), Low Keng Huat (SGX: F1E), Lum Chang (SGX: L19), MMP Resources (SGX: F3V), MYP (SGX: F86), Metro (SGX: M01), OIO (SGX: KUX), OKH Global (SGX: S3N), OKP (SGX: 5CF), OneApex (SGX: 5SY), Oxley (SGX: 5UX), PSL (SGX: BLL), Pacific Century (SGX: P15), Pacific Star Development (SGX: 1C5), Pan Hong (SGX: P36), Pavillon (SGX: 596), Perennial Holdings (SGX: 40S), Pollux Properties (SGX: 5AE), PropNex (SGX: OYY), Raffles Infrastructure (SGX: LUY), Regal International (SGX: UV1), Renaissance United (SGX: I11), Rich Capital (SGX: 5G4), Roxy-Pacific (SGX: E8Z), Ryobi Kiso (SGX: BDN), SHS (SGX: 566), SLB Development (SGX: 1J0), SP Corporation (SGX: AWE), Sasseur Reit (SGX: CRPU), Second Chance (SGX: 528), Sin Heng Mach (SGX: BKA), Sinarmas Land (SGX: A26), SingHaiyi (SGX: 5H0), SingHoldings (SGX: 5IC), Singapore-eDev (SGX: 40V), Sinjia Land (SGX: 5HH), Soilbuild Construction Group (SGX: S7P), Starland (SGX: 5UA), Straits Trading (SGX: S20), Swee Hong (SGX: QF6), Sysma (SGX: 5UO), TA (SGX: PA3), TTJ (SGX: K1Q), Tai Sin Electric (SGX: 500), Thakral (SGX: AWI), Thomson Medical Group (SGX: A50), Tiong Seng (SGX: BFI), Top Global (SGX: BHO), Tosei (SGX: S2D), Transcorp (SGX: T19), Tritech (SGX: 5G9), UIC (SGX: U06), UOA (SGX: EH5), UOL (SGX: U14), USP Group (SGX: BRS), Vibrant Group (SGX: BIP), Wee Hur (SGX: E3B), Wing Tai (SGX: W05), Yanlord Land (SGX: Z25), Yeo Hiap Seng (SGX: Y03), Ying Li International (SGX: 5DM), Yoma Strategic (SGX: Z59), Yongmao (SGX: BKX), Yongnam (SGX: AXB), Yorkshine (SGX: MR8).

For students before joining 6-day Ein55 course (www.ein55.com/course), they would do this homework (a series of psychological tests) to know their unique personality better, before aligning with the strategies later.

Stock investment is not as easy as it sounds but when one aligns with own personality, it would become a positive habit, as easy as breathing or drinking water.

Learn from Dr Tee 4hr free investment course on 3M way of stock investment or trading with a dream team of global giant stocks. Register Here: www.ein55.com

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Contrarian Investing Stock – Hongkong Land (SGX: H78)

Posted on March 15, 2020 Written by
Contrarian Investing Stock Hongkong Land

Hongkong Land (SGX: H78) is at 0% Optimism after falling in share prices over the past few years (especially over the past few months), very bearish (similar situation for other Jardine Group siblings of giant stocks – JMH, JSH, Jardine C&C, Dairy Farm, etc). Jardine Group of stocks are mainly suitable for contrarian investors (i.e. Warren Buffett styles) who only buy based on price below value, ignoring the falling knife of share prices.

There are 30 STI index component stocks including Hongkong Land (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

Price to book ratio (PB) of Hongkong Land is around 0.26 based on my memory (presented in yesterday workshop), implying 74% discount of price below net asset value which mostly is property. This is the lowest PB or most undervalue stage of Hongkong Land history over the past 10+ years.

If one could buy a giant stock with 50% discount in high quality asset (property or cash), even the company go bankrupt immediately, still can make money as the person only pays for 50% of the value, could get at 70% of remaining asset when company go under liquidation.

Of course, Jardine Group with nearly 200 years of history may disappoint investor for not able to go bankrupt immediately (it is a game of patience), Hongkong Land buildings still stand firm despite Hong Kong protesters 1 year ago and current with Coronavirus or global stock market meltdown.

It is not easy to be a contrarian investor (Be greedy when others are fearful; Be fearful when others are greedy), one needs to have independent thinking (eg. many people point fingers at Warren Buffett for wrong move to buy airline stocks with falling in prices and businesses). Alternatively, one has to switch off all the channels (eg. social media, news, newspaper, etc) to prevent the noises. Investment journey is lonely, especially for this group of rare contrarian investors, only 5% of investors may have this personality.

Most investors are more suitable for trend-following trading or investing as it is human nature to investor making money, not making loss (even it may be for a limited period of time). Either contrarian investors or trend-following traders are fine, more importantly one needs to align with own personality, do not force oneself to copy another expert’s best method (eg. Warren Buffett styles), ending up regret for life as could not follow through.

There are 140 property & construction stocks in Singapore including Hongkong Land (47 of them are undervalue with PB<1):
3Cnergy (SGX: 502), A-Smart (SGX: BQC), AEI^ (SGX: AWG), AIMS Property (SGX: BVP), APAC Realty (SGX: CLN), Abterra (SGX: L5I), Acromec (SGX: 43F), Amara (SGX: A34), Amcorp Global (SGX: S9B), AnnAik (SGX: A52), Astaka (SGX: 42S), BBR (SGX: KJ5), BRC Asia (SGX: BEC), BlackGoldNatural (SGX: 41H), Boldtek (SGX: 5VI), Bonvests (SGX: B28), Boustead (SGX: F9D), Boustead Projects (SGX: AVM), Bukit Sembawang (SGX: B61), Bund Center (SGX: BTE), CSC (SGX: C06), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Casa (SGX: C04), Chemical Industries (SGX: C05), China Great Land (SGX: D50), China International (SGX: BEH), China Real Estate (SGX: 5RA), China Yuanbang (SGX: BCD), Chip Eng Seng (SGX: C29), City Development (SGX: C09), DISA (SGX: 532), Debao Property (SGX: BTF), ETC Singapore (SGX: 1C0), Edition (SGX: 5HG), EnGro Corporation (SGX: S44), Fraser and Neave F&N (SGX: F99), Far East Orchard (SGX: O10), Figtree (SGX: 5F4), First Sponsor (SGX: ADN), Fragrance (SGX: F31), Frasers Property (SGX: TQ5), GYP Properties (SGX: AWS), Gallant Venture (SGX: 5IG), Golden Energy (SGX: AUE), Goodland (SGX: 5PC), GuocoLand (SGX: F17), HL Global Enterprises (SGX: AVX), Hatten Land (SGX: PH0), Heeton (SGX: 5DP), Hiap Hoe (SGX: 5JK), Hiap Seng (SGX: 510), Ho Bee Land (SGX: H13), Hock Lian Seng (SGX: J2T), Hong Fok (SGX: H30), Hong Lai Huat (SGX: CTO), Hong Leong Asia (SGX: H22), Hongkong Land USD (SGX: H78), Hor Kew (SGX: BBP), Huationg Global (SGX: 41B), Hwa Hong (SGX: H19), IPC Corp (SGX: AZA), ISOTeam (SGX: 5WF), Imperium Crown (SGX: 5HT), Jasper Investments (SGX: FQ7), KOP (SGX: 5I1), KSH (SGX: ER0), Keong Hong (SGX: 5TT), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), King Wan (SGX: 554), Koh Brothers (SGX: K75), Koon (SGX: 5DL), Kori (SGX: 5VC), LHN (SGX: 41O), Ley Choon (SGX: Q0X), Lian Beng (SGX: L03), Low Keng Huat (SGX: F1E), Lum Chang (SGX: L19), MMP Resources (SGX: F3V), MYP (SGX: F86), Metro (SGX: M01), OIO (SGX: KUX), OKH Global (SGX: S3N), OKP (SGX: 5CF), OneApex (SGX: 5SY), Oxley (SGX: 5UX), PSL (SGX: BLL), Pacific Century (SGX: P15), Pacific Star Development (SGX: 1C5), Pan Hong (SGX: P36), Pavillon (SGX: 596), Perennial Holdings (SGX: 40S), Pollux Properties (SGX: 5AE), PropNex (SGX: OYY), Raffles Infrastructure (SGX: LUY), Regal International (SGX: UV1), Renaissance United (SGX: I11), Rich Capital (SGX: 5G4), Roxy-Pacific (SGX: E8Z), Ryobi Kiso (SGX: BDN), SHS (SGX: 566), SLB Development (SGX: 1J0), SP Corporation (SGX: AWE), Sasseur Reit (SGX: CRPU), Second Chance (SGX: 528), Sin Heng Mach (SGX: BKA), Sinarmas Land (SGX: A26), SingHaiyi (SGX: 5H0), SingHoldings (SGX: 5IC), Singapore-eDev (SGX: 40V), Sinjia Land (SGX: 5HH), Soilbuild Construction Group (SGX: S7P), Starland (SGX: 5UA), Straits Trading (SGX: S20), Swee Hong (SGX: QF6), Sysma (SGX: 5UO), TA (SGX: PA3), TTJ (SGX: K1Q), Tai Sin Electric (SGX: 500), Thakral (SGX: AWI), Thomson Medical Group (SGX: A50), Tiong Seng (SGX: BFI), Top Global (SGX: BHO), Tosei (SGX: S2D), Transcorp (SGX: T19), Tritech (SGX: 5G9), UIC (SGX: U06), UOA (SGX: EH5), UOL (SGX: U14), USP Group (SGX: BRS), Vibrant Group (SGX: BIP), Wee Hur (SGX: E3B), Wing Tai (SGX: W05), Yanlord Land (SGX: Z25), Yeo Hiap Seng (SGX: Y03), Ying Li International (SGX: 5DM), Yoma Strategic (SGX: Z59), Yongmao (SGX: BKX), Yongnam (SGX: AXB), Yorkshine (SGX: MR8).

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