Personal Investment Plans vs Singapore Budget 2016

Ein55 Newsletter No 022 - image - Budget 2016 v2

Lao Zi: “Govern a Great Nation as You would Cook a Small Fish.”

老子: “治大国若烹小鲜

Singapore government just announced the national budget 2016 with surplus of $3.45 billion.  In fact, without inclusion of investment return from Temasek, this could be a budget deficit.  This shows the importance of investment in all levels: from national level, company level to personal level.

A nation sometimes is like a mega corporation with many departments (ministries).  At the level of personal finance, we could also learn from planning of national budget:

1) Budget Surplus

Our total personal income of the year should always be more than total yearly expenses to generate a positive net yearly income. If the projected income is unstable, personal expenses should be reduced accordingly based on the priorities, aligning with personal goals.  Alternatively, we need to find ways to increase the income by keeping the same level of expenses.  A life with budget deficit could not last long, personal saving will be depleted eventually.  When we buy a stock, also look for business with sound financial planning to generate positive net income and positive cashflow.

2) Bonus

Government has to redistribute the wealth, helping more for those needy people or motivating certain practices with financial reward.  Company pays bonus or dividend to share the earning with shareholders during good time.  At personal level, we could also pay bonus to ourselves, eg. going for an overseas vacation, buying a luxury handbag, dining in a high-class restaurant, etc.  Similar to a nation and company, bonus can be paid only if there is a surplus, either there is positive net income or positive free cashflow, meaning your personal bank account $ figure in year end should be higher than in beginning of the year.  If a person, a company or even a nation, paying bonus while making loss, this is a danger signal.  Do not assume a company or stock which pays dividend yearly is a good company, this could be a value trap.

3) Investment

Although we may not be able to control our own profession to have consistent income, we could look for investment partners who could make money consistently.  These partners could be found by carefully buying stocks of excellent businesses.  The passive income from investment will help to supplement the possible budget deficit at personal level, especially when our own jobs could not earn enough or consistent active income.  Even after retirement, the return from investment will help to grow our wealth, we could continue to enjoy our lives by paying bonus to ourselves.

 

 

Strategies for 3 Personalities of Traders and Investors to Profit in Bearish Stock Market

Ein55 Newsletter No 018 - image - success

Many traders and investors lose money in the past few months during global stock market correction.  With STI < 2600 points, there is a strong fear in the market. I have clearly pointed out in the past that greed and fear will continue to influence people to make wrong decisions.  We need to position our investment, choosing stocks with different characters, aligning with our personalities.

Here are suggestions of trading/investing strategies for 3 unique personalities (Short / Mid / Long Terms) to profit from the current bearish stock market with 4 decisions of Buy, Hold, Sell/Short, Wait.

1) Short-Term Trader (buy/sell every few weeks)

Strategy: Short / Wait.

Choose stocks with weak fundamental and bearish trend for the past few months (aligning with major stock indices), short with CFD for stocks at high optimism to profit from the falling market.  Most people only know how to long the market, therefore either lose money or doing nothing in the past few months of bearish market.  Trading could be 2 ways (long / short), as long as the trend is clear, either bullish or bearish markets could be opportunity to make money.

If shorting (requires training) is not a preferred style, those who want to buy low sell high, has to wait for a few more weeks for the global stock market to recover for short term, then long on stocks with positive trend. 

As a short term trader, not every day is a trading day, we need to wait patiently for the best opportunity of the weeks to long or short.  Short term trading is more speculative, reacting quickly to market news, therefore one has to apply Short-term Optimism + Technical Analysis (both price and volume) to have a high probability trading.

 

2) Mid-Term Trader (buy/sell every few months)

Strategy: Wait / Long.

The current market correction (20-30% for some stocks) is attractive for mid term traders who have higher risk tolerance level and looking for higher potential return than short term trading.  Since the short term trend is still bearish, one could wait patiently for the global stock recovery for the next few months, then buy those stock with strong fundamental stocks.

If your stocks are trapped in the stock market, likely now is at low optimism, too late to sell now.  Wait till the next rebound or rally above the support again, target to sell at intermediate high, either to minimize the losses (if bought too high last time) or making some profit.  Apply Mid-term Optimism analysis with integration of Technical and Fundamental Analyses as main strategies.

 

3) Long-Term Investor (buy/sell every few years)

Strategy:  Wait / Long.

Usually long term investors need to wait 5-10 years (typical economy cycle) for global financial crisis to buy strong fundamental stocks safely at amazing low price, future potential could be 50-200% higher.  Current global market correction is still not severe enough, there is room for further correction. Therefore, long term investors should wait patiently, could be next 6-12 months, partly depending on the political economy, ones could enjoy the best performance as the golden investing opportunity could be coming soon.

Apply long-term optimism with fundamental analysis to start prepare yourself for this gift from heaven in near future.  Blue chips will have more than 50% discount in stock prices, most people will get panic but you could profit from fears of others.  However, investor has to accumulate bullets (cash) to have chance to buy low and sell high.

 

eBook on Global Market Outlook 2015

It is fresh from the oven:   I have just finalized 35-pages eBook on Global Market Outlook 2015. You could download here:

Existing Newsletter subscribers: Please refer to the download link sent by email on 14 Nov 2014

Non-newsletter subscribers: Please sign up (click on eBook image of ein55.com) before download

Aligning with the introduction of new eBook, I have prepared 3 exciting free workshop and short course (total worth $1000) in Nov & Dec 2014 for the readers:

1) Global Stock Market Outlook 2015

2) Best Timing to Profit from Singapore Property Market and REITS Stocks

3) Market Optimism Strategy with Integrated Fundamental and Technical Analysis

 

Free seats are limited (first come first served), please register through:

https://www.ein55.com/free-public-education-on-investment-programs-by-dr-tee/

 

eBook Table of Contents (Global Market Outlook 2015)

1.  Mass Market Sentiment Survey

2.  Review of 2014 Global Markets

3.  US Economy and Market Outlook

3.1  US Government Debt Limit

3.2  Tapering of QE3

3.3  Fed Interest Rate Hike

3.4  US Job Market

3.5  US Property Market

3.6  US Bond Market

3.7  US Dollar, Inflation & Gold / Silver / Crude Oil

4.  Regional Economy and Market Outlook

4.1  Europe Market

4.2  China Market

4.3  Hong Kong Market

4.4  Japan Market

4.5  Southeast Asia Market

5.  Singapore Economy and Market Outlook

5.1  Singapore Stock Market

5.2  Singapore Property Market

6.  Stock Market Potential for 2015 and Beyond

7.  Conclusions and Recommendations

Acknowledgements

Appendix