Personal Analysis Archives - Page 5 of 7

Malaysia Political Cycle Investing

Posted on May 10, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

I stay till over 3am tonight (9 May 2018) so far, observing an important historical milestone in my home country, Malaysia: a dramatic change of federal government, from BN to PH. PH will also control 7 state governments (Perak is still uncertain).

Chinese believes in 60 years of cycle duration (5 x 12 = 60, 一甲子), it is about 60 years of BN ruling Malaysia since independence in 1957. 《三国演义》：“话说天下大势，分久必合，合久必分。From the wisdom of thousand years of Chinese history, we learn that when there is common interest, various groups could become friends, but one day, they will split due to internal conflicts again. It will take a long time before the next cycle to split begins, if the new PH government could use this historical opportunities to strengthen the foundation, it could continue to rule Malaysia for several decades.

How’s the impact on Malaysia future economy, stock investment, forex, etc? Short term market reaction so far is a weaker Ringgit vs USD because this is a major change in Malaysia. PH has announced 2 days of public holidays on May 10 and 11, not sure if Bursa stock market will follow the soon-to-be government to rest for 2 days. If yes, there could be some turbulence.

We don’t have to speculate which Malaysia stocks will rise or fall down. Instead, let the trading or investing opportunities come to us. Let the share prices stabilize for a few days after absorbing the market news. It is never too late to grab on investing opportunities in Malaysia.

In a longer term, if Malaysia is under a more efficient government, the economy and stock market will have higher growth potential but it will take at least 1 decade to see the results. PH is still an alliance of different parties, sometimes compromised decision may not be the best but as long as it is fair and transparent, the country could move in a positive uptrend direction again.

Optimism is also crucial for a political system. BN lost in this political tsunami, partly due to past few years of oil & gas crisis and weak ringgit, local people has been at low optimism in life, especially with the rising cost of living (eg. GST). PH may not be lucky as well because currently is Level 4 (global) high optimism, even if Malaysia stock is at moderate optimism, based on a 5 years political cycle for 1 term of government, it is not easy to achieve uptrend in stock market to show the results 5 years later. It is the same situation for Trump in US, who may try to sustain the high optimism US stock market till at least year 2020 as a report card to seek for his second term as US president.

There is no regret to witness a political cycle of a country. Sincerely hope Malaysia will become a better country, being a closer partner with Singapore. Learn about future stock investment opportunities in Malaysia, Singapore and the rest of the world with from Dr Tee free investment courses.

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Personal Analysis, Uncategorized Tagged: malaysia election, Malaysia Political Cycle

$110,000 Charity Courses for Tzu Chi (慈济) with Summary of Capital Growth Stocks

Posted on April 23, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Dr Tee Charity Course for Tzu Chi (慈济)

Dr Tee, Ein55 Mentor & Graduates have together organised 6 charity investment courses (REITs/Business Trusts in Nov 2015 and May 2017, High Dividend Stocks in Mar 2016 and Oct 2017, Discounted NAV Stocks in Sep 2016, and Capital Growth Stocks in Apr 2018) in the past 3 years, donating net income of around $110,000 to Tzu Chi 慈济 (Singapore). We hope to inspire more Ein55 Graduates to reach out the society, helping others who are in need. More importantly, they have also learned the secrets of making money through investment. When more Ein55 Graduates are successful financially, they could also contribute back to the society to help more people in future.

Here are key learning points from the recent Charity Course on Capital Growth Stocks:

1) Two approaches in investing for Capital Growth

– Asset Base approach – buy base on margin of safety via calculate it’s “Discounted” NAV of all present assets

– Earning-Cash flow approach – buy base on margin of safety via calculate it’s Intrinsic value using “Discounted Cash Flow” of future cash flow.

2) Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the most common method to calculate Intrinsic value of a growing company, using future cash flow projections and discounts them using an expected annual rate to arrive to present value.

3) An economic moat is a structural business characteristic that allows a company to generate excess economic returns for an extended period. It protects a company’s profit from being attacked by business forces. Traditional management theory terms as “Sustainable or Durable Competitive Advantages” or simplify terms as “Entry Barriers”.

4) A company with economic moats able to generate higher level of Economic Profit compare to its peers and can sustain competitive advantage for a long period of time. Economic moats drive value creation that leads to revenue growth, high profitability and high return on invested capital. The free cash flow accumulated create economic profit, this is the real value creation company.

5) Here are 3 Steps in Stock Investing:-

– Identify businesses that can generate above-average profits for many years

– Wait until the shares price trade below their intrinsic value, and then buy

– Hold those shares until either the business deteriorates, or the shares become overvalued, or a better investment is found.

We should drive the money (helping others when you are successful), not driven by the money (making money only for own gain). Investors should learn the unique Optimism Strategies with FA (Fundamental Analysis) + TA (Technical Analysis) + PA (Personal Analysis) developed by Dr Tee to choose strong global stocks, buying them at low price, then holding for consistent dividend payout or selling for high capital gains. High-quality free stock investment courses are provided by Dr Tee to the public.

Filed Under: Personal Analysis Tagged: Charity Course for Tzu Chi (慈济), Tzu Chi, 慈济

Song of Stock Market

Posted on April 6, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

We may hear different song of stock market each day, sometimes could be a nice melody, sometimes could be noisy heavy metal sounds. Each of us is a composer of this song of stock, which is made up of both market emotions and fundamentals. Let’s learn to appreciate different type of song of stock market, position oneself with the right investing strategy:

1) Pop Song

– This popular song of stock market is welcomed by mass market, following trends together to buy up in a bull market. Mastery of this song requires understanding the mass market trends (eg. technical of share prices and fundamental business and economy), leaders of mass market (usually smart investors) would has more capital gains, last batch followers (usually retail investors who listen to news) may needs to pay for lunch when the music or song has stopped.

2) Rock Song

– This rock & roll type of song is similar to cyclic stock market, traders who enjoy the up and down in price rhythm, using volatility to create potential capital gains. Emotional control is key to through the cyclic song of stock market. There are different degrees of rock music, from little noisy market (short term trading) to highly volatile stock market (longer term market cycle trading).

3) Blue Song

– This sad song of stock market is welcomed by those who know how to apply the reversed strategy in stocks with shorting, making profits with falling down in share prices. While the mass market is in great pain during depression with different degrees of market crisis, this group of blue song lovers would enjoy the sadness of market, position correctly in an opposite direction of mass market.

4) Love Song

– Most people like love song but we should not fall in love with every stock. We could love a person for life, there are also stocks which long term investor could love for life time, with condition that it remains a giant stock with growing cash flow.

5) Country Song

– This group of country song lover also likes to invest in regional stock market through stock indices of country. The pace of investing is stable, little volatility, helping to calm oneself, making money with less stresses.

There are many other types of song of stock market, sometimes could be a blend of different songs, the style could change from time to time, from pop to rock, etc. Which is your favorite song of stock market? We don’t have to force oneself to listen to song composed by others, when the melody is not right, we could walk away, staying out of the stock market. When the right song is back, we could join the stock market, applying the preferred stock trading or investing strategies, aligning to our interest or personality.

Learn from Dr Tee free investment courses to appreciate different types of song of stock market, discovering your interests in stock trading and investing.

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: Song of Stock Market

Political Economy Drama on Stock Investment

Posted on March 27, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

The fear of trade war between US/China has subsided with potential negotiation between 2 countries, ending the first episode of political economy drama. Logically, win-win is better than lose-lose for these 2 biggest world economy. This is a mind game (testing of patience, strength, flexibility, communication, etc), recent threat of trade war may not be the last move, more similar moves may be expected in near future episodes of political economy drama, stirring up the market volatility, creating opportunity for short term traders.

Despite short term recovery in global stock market, Dow Jones Index is still below 25000 points, S&P500 is still below 2700 points. The stock indices have to be above these 2 critical short term resistance to reestablish the upward trend with additional help of more positive monthly macroeconomic news in near future. In the short term, either “Double Top” or “Double Bottom” patterns may be formed. A short term trader would follow the market trend, considering both support and resistance, not just hoping for a future which is unpredictable.

Volatility is a friend for a trader (buy low sell high), an enemy for a value investor (buy low and hold long term). Use the market volatility to your advantage by aligning with your personalized trading or investing strategies.

Political economy drama is inherent within stock investment. The person in power may need to make decision with a complex process of considerations, aligning personal interest with own supporters at national level. Think in the shoes of these politicians. Do they want to destroy the global stock market and eventually economy? This is as if hitting own feet with big stone. However, sometimes there could be black swan event which may be beyond control of these political superpowers, a stock trader has to be responsive to any major change in market signal.

There are similarities in investing at business level (businessmen) vs country level (politicians). Learn further from Dr Tee on analysis of political economy drama which is reflected in global stock markets.

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Personal Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: Political Economy Drama

US/China Trade War Impact on Stock Market

Posted on March 25, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Global stock market has lost the short term growth momentum with new variable of potential US/China trade war impact on stock market, triggered by Trump latest political economy move.

The conditions for uptrend stock momentum is

US S&P500 > 2700 points

– now 2588 points, nearly break below 2581 points critical short term support

US Dow Jones Index > 25000 points

– now 23533 points, breaking below 23860 points critical short term support

US contributes to more than 50% stock value, therefore monitoring of S&P500 or Dow Jones Index help to understand the health condition of global stock market. After the 10% global stock market correction in Feb 2018 due to fear of higher US government bond yield, US stock market was recovering well above the 2 conditions above but breaking down recently due to the fear of political clashing between the Top 2 global economy, US and China.

Since the current high optimism market is more suitable for short term trading, it is important to follow the short term trend (buy when it is uptrend, sell/short when it is downtrend, wait/hold/do nothing when it is sideways) with consideration of support and resistance.

For a short term trader, safer approach is to exit first, enter again only after confirmation of short term uptrend. For an investor with higher risk tolerance level, need to monitor the level of support (aligned with own personalities) for plan for possible exit.

Political economy has added to the complexity of high optimism stock market. Volatility is getting higher, currently above critical level of 24, if sustainable above this level for more than 1 month, it will be a danger signal.

Remember global stock market is walking on a layer of thin ice now. Feel free to drop by Dr Tee next free investment course to understand the market outlook with US/China trader war impact on stock market (World, US, Singapore, China, Hong Kong).

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Personal Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: trade war, Trade War Impact on Stock

Ein55 Law of Stock Market Motion

Posted on March 12, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Share price is a 3-dimensional movement, governed by Ein55 Law of Stock Market Motion:

Optimism = PA = TA – FA, [gap between price and value]
TA = FA + PA
z = f (FA, PA), function of FA and PA

where PA = Personal Analysis, TA = Technical Analysis, FA = Fundamental Analysis

It means share price (TA) which is the vertical Z-axis, is a function of X-axis which is business Fundamental Analysis (FA: strong or weak) and Y-axis (depth direction of roller coaster) which is market emotions with Personal Analysis (PA: greed or fear). Both the FA and PA could contribute to up and down in share prices (TA), main contributors to the Law of Stock Market Motion.

Ein55 Law of Stock Market Motion simply means that both market emotions and macroeconomy / business strength contribute to movement in stock market. Based on probability, a company which has consistent good performance in business will likely to perform well in stock prices over a longer term. Similarly, when there is an unexpected bad news or unpredictable outcome which results in stock market fear, the share price is likely to fall down. In the real world of stock market, both fundamental (FA) and emotions (PA) will be combined to form an unique condition of stock market on different day, therefore creating different share prices each day, hour or even minute.

When we buy a stock at low optimism, it means we buy when the gap between share price and value is the large, an undervalue stock with price below value. When we sell a stock at high optimism, it means the share price is much more than value, an overpriced stock.

Learn the Law of Stock Market Motion from Dr Tee FREE stock investment course to understand how the share prices could move up and down in the stock market.

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Optimism, Personal Analysis, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: Law of Stock Market

Active Income from Job vs. Passive Income from Investment

Posted on March 11, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

An active income from job would stop after one’s retirement but a passive income from investment could continue with minimal monitoring required, eg. buying a portfolio of giant stocks or even property at low optimism price during the market crisis, holding long term or even a life time beyond retirement.

The beauty of investment (stocks, properties, commodities, forex, bonds, etc) is to provide an alternative source of passive income from investment to us, with little effort put in, in additional to own active income from professional job (engineer, teacher, accountant, admin staff, salesman, etc). Ideally, a combination of both active income from job and passive income from investment would provide a more stable dual engines of growth for our financial needs, supporting the growth of a meaningful life with lower risk.

We don’t have to be excellent in all areas of life. However, it could be risky to depend on only 1 professional job or skill after investing 16-20 years of time investment (primary school, secondary school, tertiary school) in mainstream school. This is called concentration risk for income. What if there is a drastic change in industry needs, the job becomes obsolete in the next 1-2 decades? Then, the time investment would be wasted and family could be at risk as the active income from job may not be sustainable anymore.

Good habits in life leads to higher probability of success in life as well. If one likes to study, chances of doing well in academic is high. If one practices an unique skill with years of hardwork, likely the active income will be higher with salary increment or better business. If one pays attention to business fundamentals, the confidence of buying and holding a good stock for capital gains and passive income from investment will be strong. If one is sensitive to trends and changes in the market, will be more likely to be a good trader in stocks.

Initiative the positive habits in life for active income from job and passive income from investment. Start the second engine of passive income from investment, learning from high quality free investment courses (Optimism Strategies + Fundamental Analysis + Technical Analysis + Personal Analysis) from Dr Tee.

Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: passive income, Passive Income from Investment

3 Keys to Successful Investment Life

Posted on March 8, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Why certain people could have a more successful investment life than others? Why some stock traders / investors are more likely to make consistent profits? They have 3 key elements in a successful investment life:

Element #1 of Successful Investment Life: Following Proven Rules

Successful Life
=============
One could learn from past successful persons who did well in various areas: scholar, politician, teacher, parents, etc. Perseverance is required to follow the path towards the success because there could be obstacles along the way.

Successful Investment
===================
One could learn from successful traders / investors to apply high probability rules to make decisions: eg. what to buy, when to buy, when to sell. Consistency and compliance to the trading plans or investing strategies are key to success. There is no 100% sure-win method in investment, a positive-edge method would give positive return over the time but not everyone could accept a few minor falls to exchange for a bigger reward.

Element #2 of Successful Investment Life: Hardwork

Successful Life
=============
Any expert in any profession requires more than 5000 hours of intensive time spent to be skillful. A successful life requires lifelong hardwork. Hardwork is not the same as “Hardship”. Hardwork implies interest, energy and full dedication of one person’s time and resources into activities which could lead to one’s life missions.

Successful Investment
===================
A successful investor or trader requires step by step learning as well. There is no short cut in investment. However, it does not need to be complicated. When one starts the first step in journey of investment towards financial freedom, the rest of steps would be relatively easier, just following through with hardwork to improve the life through investment.

Element #3 of Successful Investment Life: Right Mindset

Successful Life
=============
A person may not be successful when choosing a set of life principles against one’s personality. Each of us has unique beliefs in lives, the formation of personality can be a lifelong process. A successful person would feel happier when have the right mindset, working hard and follow the principles of life set.

Successful Investment
===================
Some traders could not following investing rules because the risk tolerance level may be too much. Similarly, an investor may not follow trading rules to buy / sell every few weeks. Matching the personality with investment strategies, having the right mindset is crucial towards success in investment.

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There are many more similarities between life and investment. We learn from those successful cases, motivating us to have faith in following the principles in life or investment, despite the uncertainty in future for life & investment market, we could have a high probability of having a success investment life if having these positive habits.

Learn the keys to successful investment life from Dr Tee.

Filed Under: Personal Analysis Tagged: Successful Investment Life

Stock Investing Strategy with Top 10 Richest Investors and Businessmen

Posted on March 7, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Jeff Bezos of Amazon is No 1 of Top 10 Richest Investors and Businessmen in the world as of Mar 2018. It is not just a competition of individual wealth. It is relative performance of their stocks in the current stock market, implying Amazon (Jeff Bezos) outperforms Microsoft (Bill Gates) in stocks.

See the list of Top 10 Richest Investors in the world, in Asia or even in Singapore, most of these richest persons have a successful business empire, supported by profitable business (Level 1) in a growing sector (Level 2) of a major economy (Level 3) with global influence (Level 4).

Since the contribution of stock performance is key to wealth of individual, this relative ranking of Top 10 Richest Investors could change again every year, depending on their stock prices and business performance. Only those businesses have sustainable growth could dominate the stock market and Top 10 Richest Investors ranking for a long term.

We don’t have to envy of the wealth of Top 10 Richest Investors but we could consider share their wealth by joining as a minority business partner, simply buy the stocks of these giant businesses (Amazon, Microsoft, Berkshire, Facebook, Google, etc) at the right time. Although we may not be able to be the same in terms of absolute wealth as it requires accumulation of money over a long term, it is possible to have similar relative growth in wealth as Top 10 Richest Investors in the world if we could own their stocks.

A short term trader could buy high sell higher, these giant stocks of Top 10 Richest Investors (Amazon, Microsoft, Berkshire, Facebook, Google, etc) likely have strong momentum to grow in share prices further but a smart trader would know when to take profits as the optimism of stock could be on high side. On the other hand, a long term investor may wait patiently for global financial crisis to buy these profitable businesses with share prices falling more than 50%, but the business is still making money each day even during the market fear driven crisis, having tremendous upside for potential capital gains by holding to the stocks.

Learn further from Dr Tee free investment courses to share the profits of these Top 10 Richest Investors in the World, Asia and Singapore (various case studies with strategies will be discussed) through trading or investing in their stocks at the right time, aligning to own unique personalities.

Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Stock Market, Value Investing Tagged: Top 10 Richest Investors

Save Lives with Charity Investment Course (中华医院)

Posted on November 26, 2017 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Charity Investment Course

The Ein55 students have learned the Practical of PA (Personal Analysis) from Ein55 Charity Investment Course by James Hon, understanding the importance of systematic approach of trading plans and investing strategies. Here are the 10 key elements learned in charity investment course:

Skill Assessment – Tested system? Confidence?
Mental Preparation – Are you emotionally and psychologically ready?
Set Risk Level – This depends on your trading style and risk tolerance.
Set Goals – What is your realistic profit targets and risk/reward ratios? How to stop loss?
Do Your Homework – Before the market opens, what is going on around the world? Calm? Volatile?
Trade Preparation – Set alerts for entry and exit signals!
Set Exit Rules – Most traders concentrating 90% or more for buy signals, very little attention to when and where to exit.
Set Entry Rules – Exits are far more important than entries!!!
Keep Excellent Records – use your Journal!
Perform a Post-Mortem – To know the why and how of your profit and losses. (Continuous Process Improvement)

Life is not just making money. To encourage successful Ein55 Graduates to help other needy groups, Dr Tee and Ein55 Mentor James Hon take the lead to donate to a charity organization, Singapore Chung Hwa Medical Institution (SCHMI, 中华医院), which has been helping the poor and needy Singaporeans over the past 50 years with free / subsidized medical services.

There are similarities in investment, charity donation and medical services:

1) Medical services help to save lives or improve the quality of lives with better health. A good health is the fundamental of happy life for an individual.

2) Charity donation provides the practical help to the needy group with money. However, the help is limited, support could be stopped when there is no further donation from the society.

3) Investment is a sustainable way of generating the profits when applied in the right way. The additional incomes could help to support charity, including but not limited to donation to medical institution for needy people.

The needy group probably could only wait for fishes from others due to their limitation in ability or knowledge to make money. However, majority of the people has the potential to learn to fish, generating consistent capital gains and passive incomes from investment. More importantly, these fishes caught could be shared with other needy people.

Dr Tee provides free high-quality investment education regularly to the general public, which may be considered a form of donation in financial knowledge, which could help a person for a lifetime, after mastering the right skills of stock investment.

Start learning these life skills NOW, helping oneself, own family and other needy people in the society. Save Lives with skills learned from Charity Investment Course.

Filed Under: Personal Analysis Tagged: Charity Course, Charity Investment Course, 中华医院

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