Personal Analysis Archives - Page 4 of 7

Coronavirus Life Cycle (Dec 2019 – ? 2020)

Posted on February 7, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

This is a preliminary Coronavirus life cycle model, assuming similar pattern as SARS (8 months duration), initiated in Dec 2019, currently 7 Feb 2020 with about 1+ month of reported data which was reported here.

We start to observe the first sign of slower growth on 6 Feb 2020 (number daily new cases started to drop from 5 Feb 2020, but downtrend only observed for 2 days so far, # death is still increasing). This early signal (mark as No 2 on chart) is significant as it shows that the isolation measures globally (especially in Hubei of China) may be effective but similar to stock market, longer trend (eg. over 1 week) is required to establish a more consistent trend.

If the slower growth may continue, there is a possibility that spreading of Coronavirus may reach a peak in Mar-Apr 2020, to be finetuned when there are more daily updates. From past experience, the virus lose its strength in summer, therefore it is a must to end it by Jun-July summer time, otherwise it may become a common flu, coming back every 6 months (2 winters globally in each hemisphere).

Here are past analysis data: https://www.facebook.com/ein55/photos/a.213596708842919/1226240390911874/

Similarly, stock market also has its own life cycle, bull (price growth) and bear (price drop) take turn to dominate, but stock market cycle is much longer, typically over 5-10 years, more dependent on optimism, not on exact duration.

For both life and stock investment, we could only focus on those we could control (eg. what stocks to buy, which places to go, etc). Stay neutral, the high probability of winning stock or low probability of getting virus would help us, don’t let short term emotions of daily stock prices or daily Coronavirus cases affect us.

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Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Personal Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: coronavirus, life cycle

Speculative Trading of Coronavirus Related Stocks

Posted on February 4, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

There are quite many speculative stocks (eg. surge over 100% in 1 day), may not be suitable for retail traders. It is fine to use small capital for speculative trading (小赌怡情) as now is still Chinese New Year, “buy very-high to sell very-very-high” may not be suitable for most people as volatility is very high, some may not able to cut loss when trend is reversed, holding the stock from original shorter term trading, becoming longer term investor which share prices could fall if business is declining without positive changes in direction.

With spreading of Coronavirus, some weak fundamental stocks in the right sector (eg. healthcare) are also supported due to speculation. Now even funeral service stocks may be speculated (unlikely for a few hundred death to change the fundamental of business). For example, Sinolifegroup (HKEx: 8296) does not have strong fundamental, speculation (price surged over 100% in 1 day) may be for very short term speculative trading with pure technical analysis, leveraging on market emotion. There are other much better funeral service stocks with strong fundamental (consistent growth due to predictable average lifespan of people).

Ein55 Mentor Kean Lim has shared a giant stock on funeral services (both in Australia and also Singapore – including the famous company – Singapore Casket, my mother-in-law was having ceremony there when passed away last year) in earlier Business Analysis (BA) course: Invocare (ASX: IVC) which has strong business fundamental for longer term investing but currently is bearish in short term prices.

In conclusion, each investor/trader should align the stock strategy (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell, How much to Buy/Sell, etc) with own unique personality. Do independent thinking before making own decision in investing or trading.

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Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: coronavirus, speculative trading

Retirement Fund Planning (Cash Saving vs Stocks Investment)

Posted on September 26, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

An investor may consider to change the usual way of cash saving for retirement fund (100% cash based). There is an alternative retirement fund plan which is stock investment based (could be 80% in 10-20 giant stocks + 20% cash as emergency fund). One has an option to do saving or fixed deposit through stock market, not simply saving in bank with lower return.

Cash from active income (decades of working) could be converted into a portfolio of giant stocks with growing business (best during financial crisis with significant discount in share price with the same value), generating free cashflow, giving dividend (which also supports the rising price in future if one could wait patiently). A retiree could depend on a portfolio of stocks in retirement fund to pay for expenses with dividend, if needed, partial profit taking from capital gains without reducing the initial capitals. A yearly review is required to replace weaker stock (if fundamental or economic moat is weaker) with stronger stock. Usually for retirement fund, defensive growth and dividend stocks in growing sectors with stable country economy are preferred.

Let’s compare 2 types of retirement funds:
1) Conventional Retirement Fund (100% Cash from saving)
– Growing fund by cash deposit with bank interest rate or very safe investment (eg. Singapore Saving Bonds) with 2-3% return, barely offset the long term inflation of 2-3%.
– Depleting fast, requiring huge amount of initial capital due to low return with no income after retirement.- Require huge initial capital (eg. over $1M) to maintain a reasonable quality of life after retirement with low interest which is comparable with inflation rate.

2) Retirement Fund (80% in Giant Stocks, 20% cash as urgent fund)
– After retirement, portfolio of giant stocks (10-20 for diversification to minimize unsystematic risks) could continue to generate an average return, typically capital gains + dividend yield > 10%-20% yearly, actual return depends on individual strategy and market condition. During the downturn of market (assuming not selling stocks) during crisis (could be 1-2 years), 20% cash or dividend from stocks could help as buffer if there is capital loss during this period.
– Initial capital of retirement fund may not be depleted if capital gain + dividend > expenses. If not, plan for an initial capital (which could be lower amount), including selling of partial stocks yearly (as if fixed deposit in stock market, selling stocks for cash), gradually towards max lifespan, eg, very conservative planning of 100 or 110 years old (a good problem to have if so long life).

– Planning for retirement fund depends on many factors, including lifestyle after retirement (monthly expense with consideration of inflation), safety of investment, etc. Assuming a conservative return of capital gain + dividend yield, total of 10%/year, assuming someone who retires at 60 years old, required fund = $5000 / month (average expense with consideration of future inflation) x 12 months = $60000/year, then one would need at least $600,000 capital to generate 10% income yearly to pay for this expense (assume initial capital of retirement fund can be kept till end of life, then pass to next generation).
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In short, start retirement fund planning now, it is never too late (yourself in future will thank yourself now for taking action). Even one has already retired, still can modify the plan (eg instead of live with past cash saving, also considering saving through a portfolio of defensive growing dividend stocks), aligning with own personality and individual needs. This way, one could lessen the burden on country or next generation. One could enjoy happy and fruitful retirement life when financial need is taken care at early stage.

Even after one has stopped working after retirement, the money (capital) accumulated over the past decades of hardwork could continue to work for us but need to learn the right ways of investing. Readers may learn from free 4hr stock investment course by Dr Tee to plan for own retirement fund with defensive growing dividend stocks globally in diversified growing sectors.
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Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Stock Market

Life Investment Lesson from Kampung Lorong Buangkok

Posted on April 1, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Life Lesson Beyond Investment from Kampung Lorong Buangkok

Life is not just making money, busy with work or investment, there is a higher level meaning for life.

Today, I have decided to take a break before the busy 6-day Ein55 investment class in April, trekking for 4km along the coast-to-coast trail from Punggol, passing by Kampung Lorong Buangkok, the last kampung or village in Singapore. I visited here with family about 10 years ago when children were still small, deciding to visit there again. I notice some changes around the Kampung (new constructions) but the 26 houses in the Kampung are frozen by time, little changes in my memory, as if going back to kampung time when I was small.

I saw a group of young children with teachers (see photo), listened to sharing by Head of Kampung (co-owner of land), Madam Sng. For younger generation born in city forest, many may not understand what is kampung, the slow pace of living at low cost of living which is rarely found.

I have a chance to chit chat with Madam Sng for about 1 hour to understand the changes in Kampung so far. There are 26 household and 1 mosque in the kampung, some have been staying 3-4 generations there, only paying rental of about $5 to $10 per month (not a typo, if you compare with a few thousands per month of rental for 1 house outside the kampung in Singapore).

I knew about the story of Madam Sng family many years ago, her father bought the land in 1956, after passed away about 20 years ago, leaving the kampung to 4 children (the youngest child, Madam Sng still stays there to manage the kampung). No matter how much is the offer by property developers (last reported “valuation” in 2007 was $33 millions, now could be higher), Sng family refuses to sell, main reason is they want to preserve the spirit of kampung, a valuable heritage for family or even entire nation, something could not be exchanged with money.

The Sng family has kind hearts, helping many other poor families for the past 60 years. Some people may think they are fool for not selling the golden asset of land as sometimes we even see cases of some families in Singapore, children going to court to fight for houses left by parents. Heaven loves “fool” with kind heart (remember the story of Forrest Gump?), rewarding higher return through tremendous hidden capital gains of land prices in Singapore. Assuming a moderate return of 10% CAGR (compounding return) for land price in Singapore, over the past 60 years, it has gone up by 300 times in prices naturally. Even the passive incomes from rental is minimal (artificially suppressed 1000 times lower by the Sng family to help the 26 families in Kampung), Sng family is protected by the natural growth rate of land, which is a default giant for investment.

Some may be envy of the tremendous “investment return” of Sng family, do not know that money is considered secondary for them, generations of families links in the kampung with memory of their parents are more important. I am hoping the Kampung Lorong Buangkok could be there as long as possible (not giving way to future development in Singapore), this is an important life lesson for everyone that money is not everything but when one does the right thing, money would come naturally.

The story of Kampung Lorong Buangkok may not be repeated in future as it is almost impossible for an ordinary investors to buy a land at sky high price in Singapore, holding for generations to preserve the value. However, it is still possible to have similar success through stock investment, one could buy stocks with strong fundamental business or undervalue land, best at low market price if mastering the clock to buy during global financial crisis, then possible to hold for generations, long term return could be comparable with Kampung Lorong Buangkok.

You may learn how to do long term investing through stocks with low capital from Dr Tee free 4 hours investment course. A few examples of long term investing stocks with over 10 times potential in future share prices will be shared.

Remember, money is not almighty but one may not live without it outside Kampung Lorong Buangkok. We do not need to work so hard in active jobs to earn from fixed salary which may be uncertain, better to couple with smart investment through stocks to generate passive incomes and capital gains. We just need more than enough money for life, when financial-freedom is achieved, we can find back the genuine love for life, not for money.

Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Property Market, Stock Market

How to Buy Stock as If Driving Investment Car?

Posted on January 23, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Stock trading is similar to driving a car. The driver should have obtained a license to drive. An experienced driver could drive safely even using one eye or one hand holding the steering wheel. If the car is given to a 8 years old kid, this could be a disaster. Similarly, a stock trader should master the skill to trade, a licence to drive the investment car. A beginner who starts stock trading or investing without proper knowledge is considered risky while an experienced investor is used to the thunderstorms (financial crisis) in stock market, knowing when to slowdown or speed up.

The driving skill would give the driver a good start but it could not guarantee safety all the time as car condition could be different. A strong car is similar to strong fundamental stock, even when there is an unexpected accident (financial crisis), it could protect the driver (investor). In the world of stock market, an investor could even diversify the risks with 10 stocks, as if having 10 different cars driving at the same time, even when one breaks down, there are other 9 other choices to move on, journey of financial freedom is not affected.

For additional safety, besides wearing safety belt, a driver could buy comprehensive insurance coverage to protect against unforeseen accidents. Similarly, an investor could consider low-debt strong cash company for investment as safety belt, following price trend with breakout for confirmation as premium for insurance.

Some drivers (traders) like a fast Ferrari (short term trading) while others prefer slower antique car (long term investing), there is no right or wrong in the choice. Each driver has to operate the car within safety margin under own’s control. Beyond the limitation, accident could happen which is beyond driver’s tolerance level. Similarly, a stock trader or investor has to know the risk tolerance level and reward expectation. Alignment of personality with own investment strategy is the key for success. A good driver would find own’s favorite car which matching own needs: price, color, speed, functions, etc.

So, have you found your desired car (stocks) for investment? Learn from Dr Tee through 4hr free high-quality stock investment course to learn how to form a strong investment portfolio with 10 dream team stocks globally. You will master What To Buy, When to Buy/Sell through Fundamental Analysis (FA), Technical Analysis (TA), Personal Analysis (PA), integrated with Optimism Strategies. Register Here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: investment car

Job vs Hobby

Posted on December 5, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Job vs Hobby
Dr Tee has been working in semiconductor industry for about 20 years in the past, climbing up corporate ladder from engineer to manager to director to VP, eventually I am CEO of my own company (10% semicon consulting + 90% investment education).

I was the General Chair of 10th EPTC 2008 Conference (Top IC packaging conference in Asia), 10 years have passed since then, good to gather with many old friends in tonight’s 20th anniversary of EPTC 2018 conference again.

I am glad to meet up today with a few Ein55 students who are working in semicon industry in Sentosa Resort World Convention Center. I have also shared my experience with younger members in semiconductor field, here is the summary:

1) Semiconductor is cyclic in nature. Staff could work hard (sometimes overnight without sleep, I did that in my early years as well) for company to make money but when business is bad, company may not show mercy to layoff staff, simply Hire & Fire when needed.

2) It is important to plan ahead during bull market when company business is doing well, converting the active income into an investment portfolio before retirement. A professional job should be a hobby for us while investment by right is an hobby, should become primary focus for us.

3) You may need to a PhD for engineering / semicon but only need primary school (PSLE) qualification for stock investment. In fact, many smart people lose money in stocks, even university professors are interested to know how to invest to profit in lifetime, not just depend on a job with salary, working till retirement. Stock investment can be very simple (if following step by step on proven methods such as Optimism + FA +TA + PA) but also can be very complicated (if you try other speculative ways such as listening to news and rumors).

4) When working in semicon / technology field, stock investment should be on other industries (eg. property, healthcare, F&B, etc) for diversification as each sector has its own cycle. If work and invest in only 1 sector, risk is high when sector crisis comes (eg. Oil & Gas, Dot Com bubble, etc)

5) We were in Genting Resort World, so I use the example of shareholding is as if owning a casino table within the big casino, sharing the profits gained without need to put in any active effort, therefore it is called passive income.

There is a fine line between job and hobby if we know how to balance. We only need to invest 10% time on investment but the outcome can be more important than 90% of time spent in job which help other people’s company to make money. Invest in oneself, not others.

I will share more life lessons (investment / work) with members in tomorrow session during EPTC 2018. For others, you are welcomed to listen to my 4 hours free investment course, register in www.ein55.com, this could be the best investment of time, learn with open mind, it is not a sales talk.

Filed Under: Personal Analysis Tagged: job vs hobby

Trading, Investing or Gambling in Stocks?

Posted on August 10, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Investing style is similar to one’s personality, sometimes it could be reshaped with lessons learned, but sometimes the habits (good or bad) is like DNA, may last for whole life. So, are you trading, investing or gambling in stocks?

There are pros and cons in each personality, therefore we usually say no one is perfect. Similarly, it is fine to have different styles for stock trading or investing, as long as one practices in the right way aligned to the personality. It is ok to be a short term trader, reacting changes in dynamic stock market, as long as it trend-following, not emotional following with herd mentality. It is also ok to a long term or even life-time investor who may buy a stock and no need to sell for whole life, provided one knows how to establish a portfolio of strong fundamental giant stocks, buying at a market low optimism with regional or global financial crisis.

Most people could learn these positive habits in life or investment, if one is given a chance to learn the right way, then practice on oneself with successes to enhance the confidence, eventually become a new habit or personality. A smoker may quit smoking naturally when knowing the statistics of better health if not smoking. Similarly, healthy diet and exercise regularly are positive habits in life but if one could not have all these good habits, at least could keep whichever positive ones remaining, eg. optimistic mindset, friendliness, etc.

For investing, we don’t have to the best in everything, eg. stocks, properties, forex, bonds, commodity, etc. Even for stocks, we don’t have to know both short term trading and long term investing. Even within investing, we don’t have to master both dividend investing and capital gains. There are hundreds of ways to make money in stocks but one has to master at least one way. This is similar to professions, there are over 1000 different types of jobs and positions, one has to master at least one job to make money.

Some people may not be suitable to trade or invest in stocks due to limitation in personality, especially on some bad habits (eg. following rumors and news to make decisions) but it is never too late to stop “investing” this way which is a gambling in stocks without an edge.

Professional gamblers in casino would not “gamble” (throw dice and wait for luck). Instead, they also apply probability (counting cards, understanding rules of game, capital allocation, etc) in gambling to enhance the chances of winning, knowing when to stop playing, when to bet more, etc. Most gamblers are retail gamblers, which are most welcomed by casino as over the time, they would lose out due to unfair design in casino games. Those professional gamblers may be blacklisted by casinos as it is harder to make money from them, especially from card games.

Are you trading, investing or gambling in stocks? Learn the right path of stock trading and investing from Dr Tee free 4hr investment course.

Filed Under: Personal Analysis Tagged: Gambling in Stocks

Key Learning Points from Ein55 PA Course on Personal Action

Posted on July 15, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Learning the best stock trading or investing methods is still insufficient. One has to take personal actions with systematic strategy, aligning to own personality. Ein55 graduates learned from Mentor James Hon on PA course #4: Personal Action. Here are the key learning points:

1) Alexander Elder: Beginners focus on analysis. Professionals operate in a three dimensional space: Sound Psychology, Logical Trading System & Effective Risk Management Plan.

2) Apply Systematic Approach: Professional Traders condition themselves to avoid acting emotionally in situations that raise their stress when they need to stay calm.

3) Good Trader Behavior:

– Find the System that suits me.

– Understand the System’s statistical edge through experience.

– Experience develops confidence [endurable].

– Confidence assures discipline [persistence].

– Discipline is the Holy Grail.

4) It is to look inward to understand who you are:

– Are you a Trader? Are you an Investor?

– To find a system to match your personality.

– To understand your risk tolerance so you will trade with a calm state of mind – your ability to manage your emotions, aka, be detached.

– To develop your personal trading plan with proper risk and money management.

– To develop your enduring confidence in your own system that you will follow consistently.

5) Take Action now: No journey of 1000 miles can be made without the small steps ; no river or sea can be formed without the streams.

For general public, you may learn from Dr Tee on applications of PA (Personal Action of Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait, Shorting) in stock market, registering 4hr free stock investment course: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Personal Analysis Tagged: Personal Action

Amazing Wealth with Life-time Compounding Return in Stocks

Posted on June 14, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Just read this touching news, a real life example of long term stock investing with compounding return, helping an accountant (Mr Loh) to accumulate S$20 millions in wealth when died at 89 years old. He may be a miser, spending little on himself but he is very generous to donate more than S$3 millions to charity organization.

This is the power of compounding return in stocks, assuming 50 years of investing (assuming this investor started investing only at 39 years old), here are return for different compounding rate, return for every $1 invested:

5% compounding: (1+0.05)^50 = $11

10% compounding: (1+0.1)^50 = $117

Even with only 5% growth rate (slow growth stocks), an investor could expand the wealth by 11 times by holding blue chip for long term. For moderate giant stocks with 10% return, the return is 117 times. There is no surprise then why Mr Loh could accumulate so much wealth unknowingly by others.

What impressed me is not his wealth but his “misery” on himself but generosity on others. Money is only useful when it is used when one is still alive. Money is not almighty but if we could become master of money, knowing the skills of both making money and spending money in the right ways, this will lead to a very meaningful life.

Start learning value investing for long term compounding return of wealth with giant stocks. The first step is 4 hours of time in learning in a free course by Dr Tee, what stocks for long term investing, when to buy / sell or holding for life. This is not a sales talk, you will learn solid investing knowledge with investment of your time.

Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: compounding return

Stock Investment Lessons from Malaysia Election

Posted on May 10, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

It is very hard to write about Mahathir (老马) in history book 10 years later. 成也老马、败也老马。幸亏老马识途，大马有救！

Mahathir’s life is like a company, started as an activist (start-up company or disruptive technology), then leading the party or even establish country vision 2020 with own set of rules (growing company), eventually ruling for more than 20 years (matured company), finally stepping down from the stage (changing from CEO to Chairman or Advisor of a company after retirement), cannot rest during retirement (bringing down at least 2 prime ministers and 2 deputy prime ministers, similar to internal company conflicts), finally starting another party and rule the country again (start new company as competitor to take over the market share).

Under PH, due to balanced power among the 4 or 5 parties (if Sabah included), we are back to 1957/1963 when Malaysia first independent with balance of power among Umno, MCA, MIC and even later with Singapore and Sabah/Sarawak joined. This is similar to a company with several major powers, there is no significant major shareholders, no one has more than 50% shares (like Umno in the past few decades), then it becomes a group decision making, until one day a party becomes larger again.

People should be the boss, although each one is like owning only 1 share in a company but when group together, it could choose the board of director to rule the company or the country. Malaysia now has a dual-political system which is good, similar to USA, every 5 years, the board or ruling parties/alliance has to show the report card to people (you as the boss), you could decide who to fire or hire. Therefore, education is required to train the people to be a smart boss, knowing the short term needs (saving GST, toll fee, income tax), understanding to compromise for long term needs (growth of company or stock).

Understanding a country (general election) is similar to choose a good company. However, when a company is not good, we could sell the stock and choose a better one. When a country is wrong, we should correct it, not just abandon it. Although there is no forever right, at least Malaysia is back to the right starting point again, which path to choose will determine the growth of Malaysia.

Singapore without much natural resources, after SG50, could grow to be a strong country, therefore a giant (not just by size). Singapore is similar to US in the past 50 years, able to attract foreign talents who are dissatisfied with home countries, to stay as second home or even new home, contributing to success of Singapore. If Malaysia has the right management (see the example of last 10 years of statement governments in Penang and Selangor), the growth rate should be stronger than Singapore. Singapore may not have the same outstanding leader as late Lee Kuan Yew anymore but with a system setup, at least it could be a slow grower country (3-5% GDP), similar to other matured economy such as US.

From investment perspective, there is no need to guess or predict which country will be better 10 years from now. We could just choose from the current market. China has been recovering from the 100 years of correction since Qing Dynasty, we could ride the way by considering China related stocks, especially related to rising of middle class. For Malaysia stocks, we don’t have to guess the impact of new government, just use the next few years to observe the different Malaysia giant stocks.

To learn about stock investment, which country to invest, what giant stocks to buy, when to buy …. simply register for a free stock investment course by Dr Tee.

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Personal Analysis Tagged: malaysia election, Stock Investment Lessons

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