Market Outlook Archives - Page 2 of 10

Short Selling Strategies for Bearish Stock Market (反败为胜)

Posted on October 18, 2022 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Over the past 6 months, the Fed starts to increase interest rate drastically to suppress the high inflation rates over 8%. As a result, global stock markets experienced second round of stock crisis since Mar 2020 (pandemic crisis) with over 20%-50% major correction in most stocks, especially technology stocks in US Nasdaq and Hong Kong.

Current global economy is still relatively strong but any black swan (eg. Russian-Ukraine war escalated to higher level, crash in property / bond / commodity /forex markets, political instability with major economy, new COVID variants, etc) may drag it into global financial crisis.

Instead of worrying about uncertain markets, a trend-following trader may leverage on market fear to potentially profit from falling stock prices with short-selling. As for smart investors, there is option to hedge against the declining portfolio value of long term position with inverse ETFs, especially for those who are not familiar with short-selling.

Crisis could be Opportunities if an investor or trader knows how to apply short-selling strategies during bearish stock market. Let’s learn further from Dr Tee on how to take action in current stock markets with shorting strategies:

1) Short Selling Strategies

It is more common to short sell a stock with CFD (Contract for Difference), making profit with falling of the prices over a period of time. Since the global stock market (especially indices for major economies) are growing in long term, therefore it is more suitable to consider shorting with short term strategy.

Since business fundamental has less changes in short term (eg. a few weeks or a few months), main focus for shorting is on Technical Analysis (TA) of share prices with consideration of Level Analysis (eg. L2 sector and L3 country performances)

Here are 2 main considerations:

1.1) Technical Analysis

In contrary to normal long position (Buy & Hold), shorting has higher probability in a bearish stock market with declining prices (eg. dropping over 10-20% in a few months). A trader may focus on stocks which show consistent trend of “lower lows and lower highs” of share prices, initiating shorting position when the price pattern below certain support (eg. neckline of double top, support of a price channel, etc) or recording a new intermediate low over the past few weeks / months (price just falls below the support).

Most experienced traders apply CFD for short selling with margins. Since it involves leveraging, it is possible a trader to lose more than initial capital, especially if there is no risk management such as stop loss. Therefore, it is critical to apply S.E.T. (Stop Loss / Entry / Take Profit) in a trading plan. Position size is also important to limit the potential loss within comfortable level before aiming for higher return with CFD leveraging.

For example, after shorting is initiated, a trader needs to set a higher price as stop loss (shorting is reversed strategy, making money with falling prices, making loss with rising prices), eg. if entry with price below the support, then stop loss is naturally when there is a false breakout (price is returned above the support). Each trader may have unique risk tolerance level, eg 5-10%, and difference profits target, with / without leveraging. When shorting selling is successful (price falling as expected), a trader may apply a trailing stop (eg. moving average, MACD and other common TA indicator), cover the shorting position (closing the shorting position) when there is a reversal signal with rising prices, taking profits at this stage while waiting for the next opportunity to short again.

Short term trading, especially short selling with CFD, requires strong commitment to trading plan, removing emotions due to volatile daily prices. Intra-day trading is more speculative as any unexpected daily news may cause a surge in daily prices. Ideally, short term trading requires consideration of price in a few weeks to a few months.

1.2) Level Analysis

Level Analysis is mainly to align individual stock (Level 1) with sector (Level 2) or country indices (Level 3) to maximize the strength of price trends. For example, when market leaders such as S&P 500 Index or Nasdaq Index (Level 3) records a new lower price over the past 6-12 months with bearish TA trends, if sector (Level 2, eg Technology Sector – XLR) also follows, then probability for Level 1 technology stocks (eg. FANG / software / semi-conductor and related stocks) to fall will be higher. The quality of shorting would be higher after such Levels 1-2-3 alignment.

Therefore, when indices are recovering (eg. reversed from bear to bull) one day, it would be more risky to short at a stock which may be still bearish. The consideration is similar to long a stock (Level 1, less than 10% stocks could still be bullish currently) while the indices (Level 3) are bearish, probability of success will be lower.

2) Inversed ETFs

For retail traders who are less familiar with short selling or CFD, may consider inversed ETFs, which would grow in prices (as if long strategy) with falling of indices. The application is limited to major Levels 2-3 indices (eg. certain sector and country indices ETF), very few on individual stocks (except for popular stocks such as Apple, Tesla, etc).

Even for investors who hold on to current stock portfolio, may apply inverse ETF as a hedging tool to limit or stop the losses in a bearish stop market. If Level 2-3 indices falling trends are aligned to long term position of Level 1 stocks, an investor may apply a suitable inverse ETF to hedge against the bearish stock market to limit the losses of holding to current stock portfolio (if not selling).

For inverse ETF, there is option of 1X, 2X, 3X reverse return, eg. when Nasdaq falls by 1%, SQQQ would go up by 3X = 3%. This indirectly includes CFD leveraging into inverse ETF, allowing higher volatility (higher potential return with higher risk).

Here is a list of common inverse ETFs, sorted by fund size (SQQQ is the most popular):

https://etfdb.com/etfs/inverse/equity/

Here are some common ProShares Short ETFs:

PSQ (-1X Nasdaq Index)

SQQQ (-3X Nasdaq Index)

SH (-1X S&P 500 Index)

SPXU (-3X S&P 500 Index)

DOG (-1X Dow Jones Index)

SDOW (-3X Dow Jones Index)

YXI (-1X China A50 Index)

It is relatively safer to apply inverse ETF than CFD for short selling because a retail investor could apply normal long strategy (eg. Buy Low Sell High, Buy High Sell Higher) which is more natural. In addition, the loss of inverse ETF is limited to capital invested (assuming no stop loss is applied). However, inverse ETF has lack of choices, trends of Level 2-3 indices may not fully aligned with Level 1 individual stocks interested (which would be more suitable with CFD).

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Shorting is mainly reversed strategy (aiming for lower prices) of usual long strategy (aiming for higher prices), riding the bearish share prices, breaking each critical support to start the shorting. It may be against the personalities of some investors, therefore it is possible to “Wait”, no need to “Short” during a bear market.

The global stock market continues to monitor the CPI (Consumer Price Index) or inflation, which likely to fall further over the next few months due to higher base for comparison 1 year ago (CPI is yearly economic data) unless there is another unexpected market surprises (eg. Russia stopping the supply of natural gas to Europe during the cold winter, US/China trade war escalated to the next level, etc).

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There are over 2000 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar, you could ask on any global and local stocks including but not limited to 30 STI component stocks:

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

View quick preview video below, Dr Tee will introduce 10 key stock investment strategies (股票投资十招) to be learned in 4hr free stock webinar:

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Trading Tagged: crisis is opportunity, crisis stock investing, global financial crisis, shorting

Stock Market Sentiment Investing Strategy with Fear and Greed of Black Swans (多数服从少数)

Posted on March 18, 2022 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Global investors and traders are worrying about the current stock market fears which may become the next Black Swan: Russia / Ukraine war, high inflation and interest rate hike, resulting in the largest dip in US stock market (13% for S&P500, 20% for NASDAQ) since COVID19 crisis. At the same time, China and Hong Kong suffer severe waves of COVID19, resulting in significant stock market correction, especially for technology stocks (eg. ATM stocks of Alibaba, Tencent and Meituan which contribute to 1/3 of Hang Seng Index). However, at the most fearful time, there is always a strong rebound in stock prices. Is it time to Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait or Shorting?

Before sharing any personal views on current stock market, Dr Tee often likes to begin with a unique “Stock Market Sentiment” Strategy with a survey for my investing workshop audience or readers:

“What do you think of the Singapore stock market trend for the next 1 year?”
A = Bear Market (STI < 10%) B = Flat Market (STI within +/- 10%) C = Bull Market (STI > 10%)

Please make your choice before continue reading further. This is an important move because you will be part of “Dr Tee Indicator” on future market trend.

The participants with diversified background and experience representing the mass market will cast their votes. Here is the latest statistics (see Figure above) based on recent survey: Bear Market (6%), Flat Market (40%), Bull Market (54%). Please compare your choice with this overall distribution on market outlook.

This unique Dr Tee Personal Indicator is making use of the psychological weaknesses in traders/investors who usually buy high (when greedy) and sell low (when fearful). Therefore, the recommendation of investing calls of buy / sell / hold, is against the mainstream view:
• Buy: when bear market view > 75%
• Sell: when bull market view > 75%
• Hold: when flat market view > 25% (current market)

The current majority market view (40% flat market & 54% bull market) aligns well with the current market trend in Singapore as Straits Times Index (STI) has been recovering gradually from low of 2233 points during COVID-19 pandemic, trading at fair price of 3337 points with uptrend potential with support of growing economy. The bearish view is relatively low (6%, less than 50% neutral line), matching the declining fear during Covid-19 stock crisis with recovery of Singapore and Asian stock markets.

This Ein55 Personal Indicator has monitored the stock market regularly since Nov 2011, successfully predicting a golden entry point to stock market after the US credit crisis in late 2011 with >75% bearish views. Unfortunately, during the next worst time of Mar 2020 pandemic, Dr Tee could not meet up with audience, therefore missing another pessimistic point (>75% bearish views) in this survey but investors won’t miss the investing opportunity with Optimism Strategy (1 of Dr Tee 55 investing styles). This unique investing methodology is consistent with the famous saying by Warren Buffett: “Be greedy when others are fearful. Be fearful when others are greedy”, but in a measurable form of investors emotions.

Response from each stock market (eg. Singapore, US, Hong Kong / China, Malaysia, etc) could be different as it greed and fear could be country or even sector (eg. technology vs value stocks) dependent as their Ein55 Optimism levels are different. If similar survey is conducted in Hong Kong recently, over 75% local investors or traders likely will have bearish views. However, no one could buy at the lowest point (if yes, then it is luck), therefore trend analysis on reversal pattern is required before Buy Low.

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Market Optimism, Market Outlook, Stock Market, Uncategorized Tagged: global financial crisis, market cycle investing, market outlook

6 Singapore Banking and Finance Giant Stocks under Potential Black Swan (因祸得福)

Posted on February 24, 2022 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Are you worrying about the current stock market fears which may become the next Black Swan: Russia / Ukraine war, high inflation and interest rate hike, resulting in significant market correction? Is it time to Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait or Shorting?

In this Dr Tee 1.5hr video education (6 Giant Singapore Banking & Finance Stocks under Potential Black Swan), you will learn:
1) Impact of Political Economy and Business on Stocks
– Russia / Ukraine War
– High Inflation & Interest Rates Hike
– Recent Final Financial Reports of Case Studies

2) Singapore Stock Market Outlook
– Short term, medium term & long term

3) 6 Giant Singapore Banking & Finance Stocks
– SG Giant Bank Stock: DBS Bank (SGX: D05)
– SG Giant Bank Stock: OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)
– SG Giant Bank Stock: UOB Bank (SGX: U11)
– SG Giant Insurance Stock: UOI – United Overseas Insurance (SGX: U13)
– SG Giant Insurance Stock: Great Eastern (SGX: G07)
– SG Giant Financial Stock: Singapore Exchange – SGX (SGX: S68)

4) Long Term / Mid Term Investing vs Short Term Trading with 3 Strategies
– Optimism Analysis (Cyclic Investing)
– Fundamental Analysis (Value Investing)
– Technical Analysis (Trend-following Trading)

Here is English Version of Dr Tee Video Course (Chinese version is also available as Dr Tee is bilingual). Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks.

English Video:

你害怕目前潜在的股票市场黑天鹅 (俄罗斯与乌克兰战争、高通膨、加息) 吗？应该买、卖、持有、等待、还是卖空？

在这Dr Tee 1小时教育视频（6只新加坡金融牛股在黑天鹅阴影），您可学习：
1）政治经济影响股市
– 俄罗斯与乌克兰战争
– 高通膨、加息
– 最新财表

2）新加坡股市展望

3） 6只新加坡金融强股
– 新加坡银行巨股: 星展银行 DBS Bank (SGX: D05)
– 新加坡银行巨股: 华侨银行 OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)
– 新加坡银行巨股: 大华银行 UOB Bank (SGX: U11)
– 新加坡保险巨股: 大华保险 UOI – United Overseas Insurance (SGX: U13)
– 新加坡保险巨股: 大东方控股 Great Eastern (SGX: G07)
– 新加坡金融巨股: 新加坡交易所 Singapore Exchange – SGX (SGX: S68)

4）长中期投资与短期交易三招
– 乐观指数分析 (周期投资)
– 基础分析 (价值投资)
– 技术分析 (趋势交易)

这儿是 Dr Tee 华语视频（英语视频也已完成，Dr Tee 双语皆行）。请欣赏鄙作，留言求进步。您可订阅 Dr Tee Youtube 频道(Ein Tee)，链接未来投资视频。

Chinese Video (华语视频):

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Cycle Investing, Market Optimism, Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: bank stock, economy vs stock, global financial crisis, value investing

Buy Low Hold Dividend with Global REITS (为善最乐)

Posted on November 16, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In recent 12^thEin55 Charity Course on Global REITs, we have raised fund of $24,000 to help needy families in Singapore. Under the spirit of charity, Dr Tee decides to share 3 Global Giant REITs with opportunities to Buy Low in 3 countries with readers (detailed strategies including Ein55 Optimism levels, Ein55 intrinsic values and Dividend Yield will be shared):

1) Singapore Giant REIT – Keppel DC REIT (SGX: AJBU)

2) Malaysia Giant REIT – Pavilion REIT / PAVREIT (Bursa: 5212)

3) Hong Kong / China Giant REIT – Link REIT (HKEx: 823)

Dr Tee, Ein55 Mentors & Graduates have together organized 12 charity investment courses (REITs in Nov 2015, May 2017, May 2019 and Nov 2021, High Dividend Stocks in Mar 2016, Oct 2017 and Nov 2019, Global Growth Stocks in Apr 2018 and Nov 2020, and Discounted NAV Stocks in Sep 2016, Nov 2018 and May 2021) in the past 6 years, donating net income of around $246,000 to Tzu Chi 慈济 Singapore.

We hope to inspire more Ein55 Graduates to reach out the society, helping others who are in need. More importantly, they have also learned the secrets of making money through investment. When more Ein55 Graduates are successful financially, they could also contribute back to the society to help more people in future.

Singapore and overseas REITs are popular investment for passive income through stable dividend stocks. By law, REITs have to redistribute 90% taxable income (from property rental income) back to shareholders in the form of dividend. Therefore, a retail investor could play the role of landlord of giant property (shopping malls, commercial buildings, hospitals, hotels, etc) with minimal capital (could be less than $1000), saving the hassle to buy/sell property (REIT manager would help), no need to deal with tenants or operations (property manager would help). Singapore REITs are exempted from corporate tax, therefore an Singapore investor could gain extra 1-2% rental or dividend yield compared with overseas REITs.

However, ordinary dividend investors (REIT / non-REIT) collect minimal passive incomes (eg. around 3-10% dividend yield) but long term growth may be limited (eg. Singtel (SGX: Z74) or SPH (SGX: T39)) and there could be high risk of capital loss with junk REIT (eg. Eagle Hospitality Trust (SGX: LIW) which has become bankrupt).

A smarter way of dividend investing is to wait patiently to Buy Low (low Ein55 Optimism during stock crisis) for a portfolio of 10 giant global REITs (or non-REIT dividend stocks) with reasonably strong business, waiting patiently (collecting consistent dividend during winter time of stock) for recovery of REIT with capital growth.

After the fear is fading, besides the minimal dividend yield (typically 3-10%), a smart dividend investor may choose to Sell High (cash out as opportunity fund to wait for next stock crisis to Buy Low again, especially for cyclic stocks including REITs) or hold long term for growth investing (for growth REIT), even possible for lifetime investing (selling one day only when need money or when it is no longer a giant stock based on Dr Tee criteria).

The best time to buy global giant REITs is always during global stock crisis (eg. Year 2020-2021 during pandemic, 2008—2009 during subprime crisis, etc), not only able to maximize the dividend yield (due to lower entry share price), also could have higher potential of capital gains (when market cycle moves from fear in low optimism to greed in high optimism). Global REITS investing is not based on dividend strategy (collect dividends as passive incomes) alone, may be integrated with cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High), growth investing (Buy Low & Hold), swing trading, momentum trading, defensive investing and other Ein55 strategies.

There are thousands of global REITS (started in US a few decades ago, extending to the world, become popular in Asia). However, not all the global REITs listed are giant stocks. A growing business or consistent dividend payment in the past may not be sustainable during COVID-19 period and a REIT may remain lagging in share prices for many years, could end up as a crisis stock. Fundamental Analysis alone is not sufficient, a low PB or low PE or high dividend yield stock may be a value trap as this may be the result of lower share price with weakening businesses. Therefore, deeper analysis is required with LOFTP (Level, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical, Personal Analysis) Strategies.

Let’s learn these 3 global giant REITs in 3 countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong), understanding the business nature, investment clock and unique strategy.

1) Singapore Giant REIT – Keppel DC REIT (SGX: AJBU)

In the internet era with more 5G applications, data usage will be enormous with explosive growth for next decade. So, Keppel DC Reit is positioned nicely to host data storage, collecting consistent growing rental as passive incomes. Keppel DC Reit has nearly 100% business in data center (recently extending to related business such as partnership with M1) while Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U) has about 1/3 businesses in this growing sector. Mapletree Industrial Trust is the largest Data Center REIT in Singapore but share price (near to fair value) currently is not as attractive as Keppel DC Reit, therefore not a focus in this article.

Over the past 5 years, Keppel DC Reit has experienced 3X in share prices from $1 to peak of $3 but the gains is not limited to share price appreciation. Its dividend is doubled every few years, therefore suitable to position as mid-fielder stock to have a balance of both growth (price appreciation) and dividend (passive income).

After reaching 100% Optimism level during peak of pandemic, Keppel DC Reit has experienced slower growth with sector rotation. The prices over the past 1 year has been bearish, declining by about 20%, falling to low optimism <25% currently, creating another rare opportunity for long term investor with dividend yield about 4%. However, due to bearish price trend, it is currently more suitable for contrarian investor who could apply Average Down strategy to minimize the risk of “Buy Low get lower”.

Therefore, similar to many other crisis giant stocks at low Ein55 Optimism level (eg. Top Glove (SGX: BVA / Bursa: 7113), Tencent (HKEX: 700) or Alibaba (HKEX: 9988 / NYSE: BABA)), an investor may need to “Wait” for “crisis” in prices (but strong in business) to Buy Low or entering in several batches, either Average Down or Average Up, eg. wait for next mini rally to Buy slightly Higher (only after uptrend is established for short term, eg when above $2.40-$2.50 resistance for Keppel DC Reit).

Due to defensive business nature of Keppel DC Reit, Ein55 intrinsic value is about $2.80, current price is only about 20% discount (despite low Ein55 Optimism level). It is more suitable for Buy Low and Hold Long Term, collecting 4% dividend yield (potentially doubled every few years). Keppel DC Reit has to grow bigger with more yield accretive acquisitions (eg. recent new REIT in Guangzhou of China) to sustain this high growth with many more global competitors (both demand and supply for data center increase at the same time).

2) Malaysia Giant REIT – Pavilion REIT / PAVREIT (Bursa: 5212)

PAVREIT is a young Malaysia Giant Reit, focusing in retail business. It has high concentration with 80% value in Pavilion KL Mall (second most expensive retail mall after KLCC (Bursa: 5235SS)), therefore business is affected during pandemic with lower property valuation and negative rental reversion.

Over the past 10 years, PAVREIT has doubled its share prices but behaving in a cyclical way, partly due to cyclical retail business and dynamic political economy (changes in regulations) in Malaysia. Its dividend is halved during pandemic, therefore more suitable for cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High) while holding minimal 3% dividend yield.

After reaching high Optimism level before pandemic, PAVREIT has experienced weaker earnings and cashflow, especially after a few yield dilutive acquisition of smaller malls (eg. Damen Mall). The prices over the past 1 year has been bearish, declining by about 30%, falling to low optimism <25% currently, creating good opportunity for medium term investor with dividend yield about 3%. However, it is more suitable for cyclic investor or trader to apply Buy Low Sell High strategy. Average up strategy (need to overcome $1.45-$1.50 resistance to establish short term bullish trend) may be integrated as dividend yield is lower with weaker business (worst of pandemic likely is over), may not suitable to buy for long term (unlike Keppel DC Reit which is possible to average down with strong business).

Due to medium term cyclical business nature of PAVREIT, Ein55 intrinsic value is about $1.70, current price is only about 20% discount (despite low Ein55 Optimism level). It is more suitable for Buy Low Sell High in medium term (a few years), collecting 3% dividend yield while waiting for pandemic recovery in Malaysia for additional capital gains. Political instability and weak economy in Malaysia are potential threats for Bursa stocks, including but not limited to PAVREIT.

3) Hong Kong / China Giant REIT – Link REIT (HKEx: 823)

Link REIT is the largest REIT in Hong Kong and Asia, about 2 times bigger than CICT (SGX: C38U) which is the largest Singapore REIT). It is also the 3^rd largest retail REIT in the world, after Simon Property (NYSE: SPG) and Realty Income (NYSE: O) of US REITs. Link REIT has 80% value in Hong Kong (retail malls and carparks), 20% overseas.

Over the past 10+ years, Link REIT has grown its share prices by 10 times to peak of about $99 before pandemic with support of high growth businesses mainly in Hong Kong. Its dividend is stable during pandemic but high growth is slower (eg. rental reversion is reduced from 20+% in the past to 10+% in recent years), therefore still suitable for growth investing (Buy Low & Hold) while holding 4% dividend yield (would increase over the years with more expansion beyond Hong Kong, especially in mainland China).

After reaching high Optimism level before pandemic, Link REIT has experienced slower growth, price was corrected significantly by about 40% from $99 to about $57. The share price over the past 1 year has gradually recovered from low optimism <25%, despite uncertain political economy (eg. tighter market regulations by China authority) with bearish Hong Kong stock market, creating a rare opportunity for long term investor with dividend yield about 4%.

Link REIT is the most flexible among 3 global REITs discussed in this article, possible to apply either Average Down strategy (similar to Keppel DC Reit with strong business) or Average Up strategy (good price trend in short term). Its potential short term risk (or opportunity) is the bearish Hong Kong stock market which could slowdown its price growth (but little impact on business growth), share prices supported above $70 is a nice balance to consider as common entry point for both long term investors and short term traders, although each may have different price targets for exits.

Due to major correction during pandemic, Ein55 intrinsic value is about $100, current price is about 30% discount (still at low Ein55 Optimism level). Link REIT is an all rounded REIT, may be considered for dividend investing (Buy Low & Hold for dividend growth), cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High), growth investing (Buy Low & Hold for capital gains) or even short term trading (Buy Low Sell high in short to medium terms). However, full mastery of each unique Ein55 investing or trading strategy is critical for ultimate success, especially on when to sell or how long to hold, not just on what to buy or when to buy.

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Readers may read earlier article by Dr Tee for more details on 100 Singapore Dividend Stocks (REIT / non-REIT):
https://www.ein55.com/2021/03/100-singapore-dividend-stocks-and-reits-for-retirement/

Not all global REITS are giant stocks, some could be junk stocks (eg. making losses or asking investors for reserved passive incomes through rights issues). Even for a giant stock, it requires at least yearly review with Dr Tee criteria to ensure it is still a giant stock or a change in strategy may be required (eg. crisis stock investing with Striker role if there is any potential high risk). Similarly, those stocks which are not highlighted in this article, some could be marginal giant stocks, may obtain the giant stock title one day, which worth longer term investing or trading.

Ideally, a smart investor should form a dream team stock portfolio (striker / mid-fielder / defender) with 10-20 giant stocks from over 3 sectors and 3 countries. REIT sector may contribute 1-2 stocks while it is important to diversify with more sectors (eg. Healthcare, Banking & Finance, F&B, Technology, Oil & Gas, Property / non-REIT, etc).

Since some REITs have overseas business, knowledge of Forex (eg. USD/SGD, SGD/HKD, SGD/MYR, etc) would be critical. A qualified REIT investor should also understand property market cycle, macroeconomy behavior, integrating with dividend investing or growth investing or cyclic / momentum trading.

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Value Investing Tagged: Charity Course, dividend stock, reit

Download Dr Tee Latest eBooks: Market Outlook 2022 & Dream Team Portfolio 2022

Posted on November 5, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Fresh from Oven: Download the latest 2 FREE high-quality stock investment eBooks by Dr Tee on (1) “Global Market Outlook 2022”, covering comprehensive investment topics: Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond and Political Economy & (2) “Dream Team Portfolio 2022” with Top 10 global stocks for capital gains and passive incomes. Past readers have benefited both stock investment ebook, learning Simple and Powerful strategies which deliver incredible results in stocks.

Are you worried or excited about the current global stock market with pandemic recovery stock rally especially with a few Trillions of dollars injected into investment markets by the new US President, Joe Biden? Every crisis is an opportunity for investing. You will learn useful methods step by step from 2 valuable FREE stock investment eBook by Dr Tee which work in stock market. Take action now to surprise yourself!

Dr Tee 刚完成2本投资秘籍。《环球市场展望2022》书内覆盖很多在环球主要市场 (美国、新加坡、香港、中国、欧洲) 的投资议题及提供解决方法。《10大梦幻股票2022》书则分享了各种实用投资策略于10大高潜能股票。很多读者已经从Dr Tee过去发表的股票投资书中受惠，大家可在Dr Tee 的最新报告中洞悉环球市场目前面对的风险及机遇。

Table of Contents (FREE Stock Investment eBook #1):
Global Stock Market Outlook 2022

Mass Market Sentiment Survey （大众市场情绪调查）
Review of Global Stock Markets （环球股市回顾）
US Market Outlook （美国市场展望）
Regional Market Outlook (Europe, China, Hong Kong) （区域市场展望）
Singapore Market Outlook (Stock & Property) （新加坡市场展望）
Conclusions and Recommendations （总结及建议）

Table of Contents (FREE Stock Investment eBook #2):
Top 10 Global Stocks – Dream Team Portfolio 2022

Personalized Stock Investment Portfolio （个人化股票投资组合）
Ein55 Global Top 10 Stocks （10大全球高潜能股票）
Summary of Actions （投资方向总结）

Download Dr Tee 2 eBooks Here: http://eepurl.com/P8i61

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

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Filed Under: Market Outlook, Stock Market Tagged: Dream Team Portfolio, ebook, market outlook

5 Singapore Semiconductor and 5G Giant Stocks

Posted on September 28, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In this Dr Tee 1hr video education (5 Singapore Semiconductor and 5G Giant Stocks), you will learn:
1) Singapore Stock Market Outlook
2) Long Term Investing / Short Term Trading on 5 Singapore Semiconductor and 5G Giant Stocks:
– Valuetronics Holdings (SGX: BN2)
– AEM Holdings (SGX: AWX)
– Frencken Group (SGX: E28)
– UMS Holdings (SGX: 558)
– Micro-Mechanics Holdings (SGX: 5DD)

3) Bonus Stock Diagnosis and Audience Q&A
– Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92)

With super rally of 5G and semiconductor sector cycle, strong business earnings would help to support stock prices until the arrival of Dotcom or Technology Bubble Version 2.0. Investors need to learn to position in these giant stocks with investing or trading strategies, aligning with own unique personality.

Here is Dr Tee Free 1-hr Video Course (suitable for bilingual learners: verbal presentation in Chinese, written notes in English, technical charts for everyone). Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks.

Dr Tee Video Course: https://youtu.be/gyF4poJhEMQ

在这Dr Tee 1小时教育视频（5只新加坡半导体牛股），您可学习：
1）新加坡股市展望。
2） 5只长期投资/短期交易的新加坡半导体强股
– 鸿通电子 Valuetronics Holdings (SGX: BN2)
– 永科控股 AEM Holdings (SGX: AWX)
– 福根集团 Frencken Group (SGX: E28)
– UMS Holdings (SGX: 558)
– 微机械 Micro-Mechanics Holdings (SGX: 5DD)

3）现场观众问答环节，新加坡强股分析
– 泰国酿酒 Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92)

半导体行业·进入超级周期，强劲业务表现将帮助扶持股价，直到科技股2.0泡沫有天来临。投资者需学习应用，符合本身性格的投资或交易策略。

这儿是 Dr Tee 免费1小时华语课程（适合双语学员：华语表达，英语讲义，图表皆通）。请欣赏鄙作，留言求进步。您可订阅 Dr Tee Youtube 频道(Ein Tee)，链接未来投资视频。

Dr Tee 华语视频: https://youtu.be/gyF4poJhEMQ

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Outlook, Stock Market Tagged: momentum stock, semiconductor stock, technology stock

4 Growth Investing and Momentum Trading Stocks (四大天王)

Posted on August 31, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In this Dr Tee 2hr video education (4 Growth Investing and Momentum Trading Stocks), you will learn:
1) US and Singapore Stock Market Outlook
– Short term, medium term & long term

2) LOFTP Investing Strategies for Growth Investing and Momentum Trading
– Level Analysis (L1 Stock, L1 Sector, L3 Country, L4 World)
– Optimism Analysis (0-100%)
– Fundamental Analysis (Strong / Weak)
– Technical Analysis (Follow-trend / Counter-trend)
– Personal Analysis (Short Term Trading / Long Term Investing)

3) 4 US & Singapore Giant Stocks from 4 Promising Sectors
– US Giant Finance Stock: BlackRock (NYSE: BLK)
– US Giant Technology Stock: Alphabet / Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL)
– Singapore Giant Luxury Stock: The Hour Glass (SGX: AGS)
– Singapore Giant Healthcare Stock: Tianjin Zhongxin (SGX: T14)

4) Long Term Growth Investing vs Short Term Trading Strategies
– Growth Investing (Buy Low & Hold, Long Term)
– Cyclic Investing (Buy Low Sell High, Long Term)
– Momentum Trading (Buy Low Sell High, Buy High Sell Higher, Short Term)

5) Bonus: Discussions on 7 related giant stocks (only for those who view entire 2hr video)
– Hong Kong Technology Crisis Stocks: Alibaba (HKEX: Baba) and Tencent (HKEX: 700)
– US Giant Fund Stock: Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK)
– Singapore Property Crisis Stock: Hongkong Land (SGX: H78)
– Singapore Giant Bank Stocks: DBS Bank (SGX: D05), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11)

Here is Dr Tee Free 2-hr Video Course. Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks.

Dr Tee Video Course: https://youtu.be/5mDIXIsLB3k

Past readers could have profited with over 50% rally in share price if have taken actions during pandemic on similar giant stocks such as BlackRock, Alphabet (Google), The Hour Glass, Tianjin Zhongxin, and many others. No one could change the past but you could still change the future if taking action to learn now!

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: growth stock, momentum stock, Singapore Stocks, US Stocks

10 Stock Investment Strategies (股市投资十招)

Posted on July 29, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Dr Tee has conducted over 300 high-quality public workshops over the last decade, from meet-up sessions to webinars currently, content is enhanced regularly. Dr Tee has updated the preview video today (only 8 minutes), showing the tremendous value of free investment education to general public every month.

In this quick preview, Dr Tee will introduce 10 key investment strategies to be learned in 4hr free stock webinar (Register Here: www.ein55.com):
1) Bonus Stock Diagnosis (股票基本与技术分析)
2) Global Market Outlook / ETF Investing (环球市场展望 / 指数投资法)
3) CFD / Option Trading (差价合约交易)
4) REITS / Dividend Blue Chips (高息蓝筹股)
5) Free Stock Screener (免费环球股票筛选平台)
6) Investment Clock (投资时钟)
7) Crisis Stock Investing (危机投资股)
8) Investing with Big Boys (大鱼投资股)
9) Growing Giant Stocks (长期成长投资股)
10) Momentum Trading Stocks (短期动量股)

Share this high quality free stock webinar by Dr Tee with your friends, learning at the comfort of home.
Register Here: www.ein55.com

Join earlier for bonus stock diagnosis. We will review the impact of recent stock market correction with opportunities in global giant stocks with 10 stock investing and trading strategies, either Average Down (Buy Low Sell High) or Average Up (Buy High Sell Higher), choosing a strategy aligning with own personality.

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There are over 2000 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Bond Market, Commodity Market, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, Market Outlook, Property Market, Stock Market Tagged: market outlook, video education

Free Ride on 10 Singapore Bull Market Stocks (牛市顺风车)

Posted on June 25, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In this Dr Tee 1.5hr video education (Free Ride on 10 Singapore Bull Market Stocks), you will learn:
1) Singapore and Malaysia Stock Market Outlook 2021/Q3
2) Long Term Investing on 3 Singapore Giant Stocks:
– The Hour Glass (SGX: AGS)
– Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92)
– Raffles Medical Group (SGX: BSL)
3) Short Term Trading on 3 Singapore Giant Stocks:
– PropNex (SGX: OYY)
– Union Gas Holdings (SGX: 1F2)
– Cortina Holdings (SGX: C41)
4) Bonus Stock Diagnosis for Audience Q&A on 4 Singapore Giant Stocks:
– Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings (SGX: BS6)
– Tuan Sing Holdings (SGX: T24)
– OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)
– Wilmar International (SGX: F34)

Learners of earlier Dr Tee videos could have profited with over 50% rally in share price if have taken actions during pandemic on similar giant stocks such as The Hour Glass, Cortina, Union Gas, OCBC, etc. No one could change the past but you could still change the future if taking action to learn now!

Here is Dr Tee Free 1.5-hr Video Course (suitable for bilingual learners: verbal presentation in Chinese, written notes in English, technical charts for everyone). Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks.

Dr Tee Video Course: https://youtu.be/WCciuIn88uI

在这Dr Tee 1.5小时教育视频（10只新加坡牛市股票顺风车），您可学习：
1）新加坡与马来西亚2021/Q3股市展望。
2）三只长期投资的新加坡强股
– 欧佳时 The Hour Glass (SGX: AGS)
– 泰国酿酒 Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92)
– 莱佛士医疗 Raffles Medical Group (SGX: BSL)
3）三只短期交易的新加坡强股
– 博纳产业 PropNex (SGX: OYY)
– 优联燃气 Union Gas Holdings (SGX: 1F2)
– 高登 Cortina Holdings (SGX: C41)
4）现场观众问答环节，四只新加坡强股分析:
– 揚子江船業 Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings (SGX: BS6)
– 传慎控股 Tuan Sing Holdings (SGX: T24)
– 华侨银行 OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)
– 丰益国际 Wilmar International (SGX: F34)

错过Dr Tee之前教导，猛涨过50%的强股 （欧佳时、高登、优联燃气、华侨银行）？往者不可谏，来者犹可追，现在开始学习投资！

这儿是 Dr Tee 免费1.5小时华语课程（适合双语学员：华语表达，英语讲义，图表皆通）。请欣赏鄙作，留言求进步。您可订阅 Dr Tee Youtube 频道(Ein Tee)，链接未来投资视频。

Dr Tee 华语视频: https://youtu.be/WCciuIn88uI

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Value Investing Tagged: momentum stock, Singapore Market, video education

Top 10 Global Luxury Giant Stocks (纸醉金迷)

Posted on June 5, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

We may still remember the Malaysia 1MDB news a few years ago on millions of ringgit worth of luxury products (handbags –Bijan / Hermes / Gucci, jewelry, watches – Rolex / Patek Philippe) discovered as “gifts” to a lucky family. In fact, smart investors could profit from these luxury products in a legal way with stock investing, leveraging on global rich people with extravagant spending.

In this article, you will learn from Dr Tee on Top 10 Global Luxury Giant Stocks of 4 Countries for longer term investing and / or short term trading with COVID-19 recovery stock rally. Bonus for readers who could read every word of the entire article, learning unique strategy to position in each giant luxury stocks, including Ein55 Optimism level and Ein55 Intrinsic Value.

1) France Giant Luxury Stock: LVMH (EPA: MC), Hermes (EPA: RMS), Kering (EPA: KER)

2) US Giant Luxury Stock: Estee Lauder (NYSE: EL), PVH (NYSE: PVH)

3) Singapore Giant Luxury Stock: The Hour Glass (SGX: AGS), Cortina Holdings (SGX: C41)

4) HK Giant Luxury Stock: Chow Tai Fook (HKEx: 1929), Chow Sang Sang (HKEx: 116), Luk Fook (HKEx: 590)

Stocks with luxury products (eg. branded handbags, expensive gold jewelry, luxury watches, etc) are consumer discretionary stocks (纸醉金迷), usually following the economic cycle, very bullish during bull run (eg. last 1 year of pandemic recovery), very bearish during global financial crisis (eg. Q1 of 2020 pandemic, 2008-2009 subprime crisis, etc). Therefore, mastery of investment clock would help on cyclical luxury stocks to Buy Low Sell High.

However, there are some growth luxury giant stocks which are suitable with Buy Low and Hold long term strategy due to the fact that rich would become richer (sadly to say, may imply poor become poorer, especially those who don’t know investment, depending only on active income from 1 job) when global financial crisis is over. Therefore, the luxury product businesses of growth giant stocks could continue to grow for many decades, especially having a strong intangible asset of famous brands (status of rich people who are willing to pay more).

During COVID-19 pandemic, most luxury stocks suffer in businesses mainly due to temporary lower spending power of rich people and limited tourists who could be main customers in the past. With pandemic recovery (over last 1 year and likely for next 1 year) and availability of online purchases, both businesses and share prices of giant luxury stocks have been growing steadily. When international borders are fully opened one day after global vaccination of COVID-19, the business growth would be accelerated.

A giant stock may not need to be big in size, even a small company could be a giant stock. There are hundreds of luxury stocks globally but some could be junk stocks, Buy Low may become lower in share prices with declining businesses. Let’s study Top 10 Global Giant Luxury Stocks (following Dr Tee criteria), some are recovering from lower optimism in 4 global stock exchanges interested by readers:

1) France Giant Luxury Stock:

LVMH (EPA: MC), Hermes (EPA: RMS), Kering (EPA: KER)

Asian investors may not familiar with European stock market. In fact, France has the most famous luxury products brands in the world, many giant stocks are listed under Euronext Paris Stock Exchange (EPA) which is accessible to global investors. A smart investor would diversify investment over a portfolio of 10-20 global giant stocks in several countries, which may include No 6 largest economy in the world, France, which is famous for its people creativity (despite may not be as hardworking as Asian people).

LVMH (Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton) is the world largest luxury product, including many famous brands such as Hennessy (wine), LV, Christian Dior, etc. The major shareholder, Bernard Arnault, recently becomes the World No 1 Richest person as LVMH share prices have outperformed No 2 (Jeff Bezos of Amazon) and No 3 (Elon Musk of Tesla). Ein55 Optimism level is over 80%, current price is far exceeding Ein55 Intrinsic value, more suitable with short term momentum trading strategy (Buy High Sell Higher), requiring S.E.T. (Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices) trading plan.

Similar to LVMH, Hermes is also a family owned business but much smaller in business size, famous with luxury handbags (some rich people wives may have no resistance over them, becoming a collector with millions of dollars spent). However, Hermes is a much stronger growth stock than LVMH, business is so good that even LVMH was hoping to acquire it but mission failed many years ago. Ein55 Optimism level is near to 90%, suitable for both growth investing and momentum trading, but ideal entry point may be to wait for a global financial crisis, especially for longer term investors.

Dr Tee discussed both LVMH and Hermes as stock homework with Ein55 graduates about 2 years ago, even with over 30% share price correction during pandemic crisis, both stocks have achieved 70% potential gains so far. Both are excellent examples of growth stock investing, even if an investor did not sell during global stock crisis, growth giant stocks could recover faster to achieve a new high in future. The main enemy of an investor is usually oneself, especially when a giant stock with growing business is significantly corrected in share prices due to market fear.

Kering is No 4 largest luxury stock in the world, famous of brands such as Gucci, Yves Saint Laurent, etc. Kering is also strong in business but slower growth compared to Hermes and LVMH, more suitable with Buy Low Sell High strategy. Ein55 Optimism level is near to 80% with pandemic recovery, more suitable for short term trading.

In fact, short term performance of LVMH, Hermes and Kering are comparable (currently bullish trends) and aligned due to similar consumer discretionary sector (Level 2) and same country (Level 3). For both short term trading and long term investor, Level Analysis would help to improve probability of success, knowing the unique market cycles (bull / bear) of each sector and country.

Readers may read earlier article by Dr Tee for more details with Top 10 World Richest Persons stocks including LVMH:
https://www.ein55.com/2021/02/top-10-world-richest-giant-stocks/

2) US Giant Luxury Stock:

Estee Lauder (NYSE: EL), PVH (NYSE: PVH)

Estee Lauder is world No 2 largest luxury stock, famous of beauty products (cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, etc). It may be relatively easier to make money from ladies than men, therefore in a typical department store, men section is usually much smaller than lady section, mainly to maximize the business revenue.

Therefore, Ester Lauder is comparable with LVMH, also strong growth in business and share prices, recovering well after the correction during pandemic. Ein55 Optimism level is over 70%, more suitable for short term momentum trading, similar strategy as LVMH and Hermes.

PVH is world No 10 largest luxury stock, famous of brands such as Calvin Klein, Van Heusen, Tommy Hilfiger, etc. However, PVH business is affected much more than other giant stocks, was making a loss during 2020 pandemic year, recovery is also slower. PVH is more cyclical in nature, may be considered with Buy Low Sell High strategy. Ein55 Optimism level is still moderate low near to 30%, aiming for Ein55 Intrinsic Value of $170.

Despite global luxury giant stocks are from different countries, there is an alignment globally (Level 4) in businesses and share prices, especially with more online purchases without travelling, people from country A may purchase a luxury product from country B easily. Consumer discretionary sector with luxury products would follow economic cycles, higher growth during bullish economy, slower growth (or declining) during bearish economy.

Readers may read earlier articles by Dr Tee for more details of other US Giant Stocks:
https://www.ein55.com/tag/us-stocks/

3) Singapore Giant Luxury Stock:

The Hour Glass (SGX: AGS), Cortina Holdings (SGX: C41)

Hour Glass and Cortina are competitors, having very similar businesses, mainly in sales of luxury watches (eg. Rolex, Patek Philippe, Hublot, etc). For regular followers of Dr Tee education articles and videos (www.ein55.com/blog), you would not miss these 2 Singapore luxury giant stocks, Hour Glass and Cortina, at lower Ein55 Optimism levels when sharing during last 1 year of pandemic.

Both giant stocks are strong growth in businesses (cash rich companies), not significantly affected during pandemic (despite fewer tourists to Singapore). However, the strategy to position is very different for each stock. Hour Glass was having more discount a few months ago, when share price was near to 80 cents, Dr Tee discussed as stock homework with Ein55 graduates, also shared in earlier articles with readers, indicating Ein55 Intrinsic Value of $1.20 which is achieved recently, having 50% potential profits in a few months for readers who do own homework and take actions decisively. Despite the current price is near to its fair value, there is potential of higher price of over $1.60 if Hour Glass could attract institutional investors or supported by market greed to higher optimism level as its competitor, Cortina.

Cortina has much higher Ein55 Optimism level (over 90% currently), therefore the positioning over the past few months has been short term momentum trading, following trends to Buy High Sell Higher. Cortina is relatively an illiquid stock with less stock trading volume, therefore it could be very volatile (+/-10% price movement) on certain days. For stock analysis, instead of daily chart (certain days having 0 trading volume), it is clearer when viewing with weekly or monthly chart. Price trends of Cortina and Hour Glass are generally aligned but Cortina has appreciated much more than Hour Glass over the past 1 year.

For medium to long term investor, Hour Glass may be relatively more suitable than Cortina as Hour Glass has higher dividend yield (3-5%, depending on entry prices) and lower Ein55 Optimism level than Cortina. Recently, Hour Glass doubles the interim dividend from 2 cents (last year) to 4 cents (this year), higher dividend has helped to push up the share prices to a new historical high, also motivating Cortina to follow the same price trends. There is also good succession plan, Hour Glass business is passed from Henry Tay to his son (Michael Tay) who has been well trained in this luxury watch industry. So, a luxury watch may be a collection for decades but a smart investor may own “thousands” of watches by investing in Hour Glass or Cortina.

Hour Glass is 2 times larger than Cortina based on market cap but both are considered medium cap stocks, therefore may not be in the radar of institutional investors yet. Cortina has acquired Sincere Watch recently, business size is considered No 2 after Hour Glass for luxury watch market in Singapore. To benefit from the entire luxury watches market, major shareholder of Hour Glass, Henry Tay, is also the second largest shareholder of Cortina, which is a competitor of Hour Glass. A smart investor may learn from Henry Tay, sometimes may invest in a few competing giant stocks of any sector of interest If they are equally good.

For small or medium cap giant stock, it is easier for share prices to move up (or down) as shares are exchanging hands within a smaller group of investors, especially when majority of shares are controlled by a few major shareholders. For example, major shareholder of Hour Glass, Henry Tay, recently adding a small percentage of own shares (known insider trading) but this is sufficient to support Hour Glass above $1/share. A smart investor would diversify over a portfolio of giant stocks with small cap <$100M (higher potential), medium cap $100M – $1B (good balance of potential and stability) and large cap >$1B (more stability).

Readers may read earlier articles (during pandemic with lower Ein55 Optimism level) by Dr Tee for more details with Singapore Growth Stocks including Hour Glass and Cortina:
https://www.ein55.com/tag/growth-stock/

4) HK Giant Luxury Stock:

Chow Tai Fook (HKEx: 1929), Chow Sang Sang (HKEx: 116), Luk Fook (HKEx: 590)

Before pandemic, some readers who travel often to Hong Kong may remember these famous jewelry shops along shopping streets: Chow Tai Fook (周大福), Chow Sang Sang (周生生) and Luk Fook (六福), which are all giant luxury stocks, making money from both local residents and overseas tourists. However, there are many luxury stocks (jewelry, watches, etc) listed in Hong Kong Stock Exchange, not all are giant stocks.

Businesses of all these 3 Hong Kong luxury giant stocks were affected, not only during the last 1 year of pandemic. In fact, even before pandemic, despite growing gold price since Year 2015, jewelry market in Hong Kong has been declining over the years, partly because the number of mainland China tourists to Hong Kong is declining with local political differences. The activists in Hong Kong over the past few years (before pandemic) have further slowdown the demand of this luxury product market.

After the enhancement of local Hong Kong law against potential activists, these 3 luxury giant stocks have started to grow gradually in businesses, supported by pandemic recovery. These 3 giant stocks have very similar trends in businesses (same sector) and share prices (same stock market) in short to medium terms. Relatively, Chow Tai Fook (world No 9 largest luxury stock) is the strongest among 3 stocks on business recovery during pandemic, short term share price is also more bullish than Chow Sang Sang and Luk Fook.

In general, Chow Sang Sang and Luk Fook are still at low Ein55 Optimism levels (less than 25%), aiming for Ein55 Intrinsic Values of about $30 (Chow Sang Sang) and $60 (Luk Fook) respectively, may be considered for cyclic investing or short term trading. They are average quality of crisis stocks due to relatively weaker businesses. Major leader of sector, Chow Tai Fook, is more suitable for trend-following short term trading.

Readers may read earlier articles by Dr Tee for more details of other Hong Kong Giant Stocks:
https://www.ein55.com/tag/hong-kong-market/

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It is easy to know “Buy Low Sell High” is universal secret to profit in most investment. However, most people dare not buy when share price of giant stocks fall to very low optimism (due to lack of visibility of how low is low). Similarly, some people may not buy when share prices of giant stocks go to very high optimism (despite possible to do short term trading). Eventually, some may buy junk stocks during speculative trading, making money for first few times, losing more in later trading when adding more position due to “confidence” of winning in the past.

It shows the importance for retail investors to master stock trading and investment skills, not only knowing but able to take actions (Buy / Hold / Sell / Wait / Shorting). Readers who could spend time to read until here is an achievement, continue the momentum to learn and apply further in stock investment after mastery of skills.

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There are over 1500 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Value Investing Tagged: growth stock, Hong Kong Market, luxury stocks, US Stocks

2 Free eBooks by Dr Tee (Click to Download)