Market Optimism Archives

8 AI Technology Stocks for Momentum Trading and Growth Investing (以智取胜)

Posted on July 14, 2023 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

After major correction of technology stocks in Year 2022, the technology sector recovers strongly in 2023 with the support of Artificial Intelligence (AI), initiated by popularity of ChatGPT, following by the healthy competitions and future AI plans of many technology giant stocks, pushing up the stock prices of technology stocks and even entire US stock indices (S&P500 and Nasdaq), nearer to the last peak in late 2021.

As mentioned in earlier Dr Tee articles, Golden Cross of inflation (now 3%) below interest rate (now 5%) help to support recovery of technology stocks which are sensitive to interest rate (likely will reach its peak soon). Since stock market is usually 6-12 months ahead of economy and businesses, a smart investor may take calculated risk with early actions (eg. big winner for those who took actions 6 months ago on technology stocks when inflation starts to fall from its peak).

Investing and trading in stocks may also apply AI (eg. following certain rules) but key difference is to personalize the strategies, eg holding for short term (momentum trading), mid term (cyclic trading) or long term (growth investing).

Dr Tee has shortlisted 8 AI stocks with potential for trading and investing, each stock requires unique positioning due to different types of LOFTP (Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis):

1) Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA)
Nvidia is a bigger winner in AI game as development generative AI requires strong demand of GPU chips, which is dominated by Nvidia. It projects significant increase in near future revenue which supports the share price to break above last high of $335 in Year 2021, exceeding by 50% to $460 so far.

Even before recent AI stock rally, Nvidia already has sustainable strong business fundamental. However, due to stock price is far above fair value with high Ein55 Optimism, it is more suitable for short term momentum trading, following the uptrend prices (eg. entering when breaking a new high, but it is crucial to set stoploss when price trend is reversed more than risk tolerance level).

2) Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT)
Microsoft is another direct AI winner because it is major investor for ChatGPT, even incorporating into BING search engine (challenging Google Search) and Windows 11 platform with Microsoft Office products. As a result, Microsoft share price has recovered back to its 2021 peak of $344, may achieve another new historical high if AI momentum continues.

Microsoft is veteran technology giant stock with over 50 years history since 1970s (comparable with Apple), products are diversified beyond traditional PC into cloud and gaming, etc. Strong business fundamental but it has price exceeding fair value with high Ein55 Optimism, more suitable for mid term cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High) or short term momentum trading (Buy High Sell Higher).

3) Alphabet / Google (Nasdaq: GOOGL/GOOG)
Alphabet has been early AI developer (eg. DeepMind with AlphaGo could win human No 1 Go player in the world) but slow in commercializing the AI products, still focusing more on Google search engine which 85% market share (compared with BING only has 8%) for advertisement revenue (Youtube contributes to about 10% of Alphabet revenue). ChatGPT quick success has helped Google to introduce comparable BARD chat quickly to supplement Google search. It is not too late for BARD to catch up because they have strong foundation in development with wide Google network as potential customers, just need to focus on marketing and commercialization in future, helping to retain or grow the online advertisement revenue.

Relative to other technology / AI giant stocks, Alphabet / Google is relatively slow in stock price recovery (still below its peak of $150 in Year 2021), current price of $124 is near to its fair value, therefore still possible to be considered for long term investor for growth investing (Buy fair price and Hold). At the same time, Alphabet / Google may also be suitable for mid term cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High) or short term momentum trading (Buy High Sell Higher). It is a rare giant stock which may be considered for both long term investors and short/mid term traders. However, since few technology giant stocks could last for decades, it is crucial to monitor its technology advantages over competitors (eg. ChatGPT vs BARD, Google vs BING, etc) for long term investors.

4) Meta / Facebook (Nasdaq: META)
Meta share price was seriously corrected in Year 2022 from about $380 to $90, partly due to venture into unprofitable Metaverse and headwind of technology sector then. Meta is early winner for technology stock recovery in 2023 (another is Netflix), growing with very strong momentum (comparable with Nvidia and Microsoft performances), current price of $313 is still below its 2021 peak of $380.

Even without AI (new plan) or Metaverse (old plan), advertisement revenue for existing Facebook and Instagram could already support and grow the business. The new Threads app is a strong challenger to Twitter, could be future revenue generator, making its social media network even wider (a strong economic moat). Meta share price is still below its fair value of about $360, may be considered for long term growth investor and also short term momentum trader.

5) Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN)
Amazon share price was halved in Year 2022 from about $187 to $85, partly due to high growth during pandemic is not sustainable during post pandemic, business also becomes cyclic, affecting share price stability. Amazon has cloud businesses, AI concept has helped to recover its share prices together with other technology giant stocks, current price of $134 is still below its 2021 peak of $187.

Amazon is a trillion-dollar market cap giant stock (after Apple and Microsoft, ahead of Google and Nvidia), business becomes more sustainable as pre-pandemic. Current share is still below fair value of about $200, therefore may be considered for long term growth investing, mid term cyclic trading or even short term momentum trading.

6) AMD (Nasdaq: AMD)
AMD share price dropped to 1/3 from about $155 to $55 in Year 2022 technology sector crisis, partly due to high growth of chips demand during pandemic is not sustainable during post pandemic, business even suffered losses in the last quarter. Over the last few decades of competition, AMD is stronger and larger than Intel, supporting AMD share price growing by 80 times over the past 10 years. Despite AMD AI chip is still behind leader Nvidia, its latest chips are widely used by cloud platforms (eg. Amazon). AMD price has recovered strongly, current price of $115 is still below its 2021 peak of $155.

AMD is a young technology giant stock which would benefit from future AI sector expansion. Current share is still below fair value of about $200, therefore may be considered for long term growth investing, mid term cyclic trading or even short term momentum trading.

7) TSMC (NYSE: TSM / Taiwan TPE: 2330)
TSMC share price was corrected by more than half from about $140 to $63 in Year 2022 technology sector crisis, partly due to high growth of chips demand during pandemic is not sustainable during post pandemic, but business remains profitable with more sustainable growth rate. TSMC is the world leader for high end chip manufacturing (eg. 3nm), far ahead of competitors Samsung and Intel. With help of Warren Buffett (despite he sold it eventually due to worry of geo-political crisis) and technology sector rally, TSMC price has recovered strongly, current price of $105 is still below its 2022 peak of $140.

Semiconductor sector is cyclic in nature, similar for TSMC share price, more suitable to Buy Low Sell High for cyclic investor. Current share price is higher than fair price of about $80, therefore more suitable for mid term cyclic investing (not long term due to higher Ein55 Optimism) or even short term trading (since momentum is relatively weaker, may consider to Buy Low Sell High with short term swing trading).

8) ASML (Nasdaq: ASML)
Semiconductor sector is very specialized and inter-dependent, eg. design by Nvidia, manufacturing by TSMC but leading equipment supplier is ASML, etc. ASML business and even share price performances are comparable to TSMC since both are closely related.

ASML share price was corrected by more than half from about $868 to $379 in Year 2022 technology sector crisis, partly due to high growth of chips demand during pandemic is not sustainable during post pandemic, but business remains profitable with more sustainable growth rate. ASML is the world leader for high end chip equipment (eg. lithography for 3nm), far ahead of other competitors. US/China trade war may affect its future business expansion in China due to new export ban for high tech semiconductor equipment. Together with technology sector rally, ASML price has doubled from valley, current price of $750 is getting nearer to its 2022 peak of $868.

Semiconductor sector is cyclic in nature, similar for ASML share price, more suitable to Buy Low Sell High for cyclic investor. Current share price is higher than fair price of about $470, therefore more suitable for mid term cyclic investing (not long term due to higher Ein55 Optimism) or even short term trading (since momentum is relatively weaker, may consider to Buy Low Sell High with short term swing trading).

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There are over 2000 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

View quick preview video below, Dr Tee will introduce 10 key stock investment strategies (股票投资十招) to be learned in 4hr free stock webinar:

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Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Market Optimism, Market Outlook, Technical Analysis Tagged: cyclic investing stock, growth stock, momentum stock, technology stock, US Stocks

Download Dr Tee Latest eBooks: Market Outlook 2023 & Dream Team Portfolio 2023

Posted on November 3, 2022 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Fresh from Oven: Download the latest 2 FREE high-quality stock investment eBooks by Dr Tee on (1) “Global Market Outlook 2023”, covering comprehensive investment topics: Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond and Political Economy & (2) “Dream Team Portfolio 2023” with Top 10 global stocks for capital gains and passive incomes. Past readers have benefited both stock investment eBooks, learning simple and useful strategies to position in current global stock markets.

Are you worried about the current global stock market with potential black swans such as high inflation, interest rate hike, Russia-Ukraine War, supply chain disruptions and endless COVID19 cases which contribute to declining stock prices? Every crisis is an opportunity for investing. You will learn useful methods step by step from 2 valuable FREE stock investment eBook by Dr Tee which work in stock market. Take action now to surprise yourself!

Dr Tee 刚完成2本投资秘籍。《环球市场展望2023》书内覆盖很多在环球主要市场 (美国、新加坡、香港、中国、欧洲) 的投资议题及提供解决方法。《10大梦幻股票2023》书则分享了各种实用投资策略于10大高潜能股票。很多读者已经从Dr Tee过去发表的股票投资书中受惠，大家可在Dr Tee 的最新报告中洞悉环球市场目前面对的风险及机遇。

Table of Contents (FREE Stock Investment eBook #1):
Global Stock Market Outlook 2023

Mass Market Sentiment Survey （大众市场情绪调查）
Review of Global Stock Markets （环球股市回顾）
US Market Outlook （美国市场展望）
Regional Market Outlook (Europe, China, Hong Kong) （区域市场展望）
Singapore Market Outlook (Stock & Property) （新加坡市场展望）
Conclusions and Recommendations （总结及建议）

Table of Contents (FREE Stock Investment eBook #2):
Top 10 Global Stocks – Dream Team Portfolio 2023

Personalized Stock Investment Portfolio （个人化股票投资组合）
Ein55 Global Top 10 Stocks （10大全球高潜能股票）
Summary of Actions （投资方向总结）

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Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Bond Market, Commodity Market, Market Optimism, Market Outlook, Property Market, Stock Market Tagged: market cycle investing, market outlook, stock market crisis

Top 4 Crisis Defender Dividend Stocks (抗压存股)

Posted on May 12, 2022 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Global stock markets experienced mini dotcom bubble with over 30%-50% major correction in technology stocks, especially in US Nasdaq and Hong Kong. Both long term investors and short term traders are worried of high inflation over 8%, interest rate hike (may exceed 3% in 1 year), Russia-Ukraine War (higher commodity prices) which contribute to declining stock prices. A potential black swan may spread the fears in technology stocks to most sectors, resulting in a global financial crisis.

Instead of worrying about uncertain markets, a smart investor and trader may consider strong dividend giant stocks with protection by defensive sector business, a natural way to hedge against high inflation with interest rate hike while collecting growing passive incomes in a steady way.

In recent 13th Ein55 Charity Course on Global Dividend Stocks, we have raised fund of $21,700 for Tzu Chi Singapore to help needy families in Singapore. Under the spirit of charity, Dr Tee decides to share 4 defensive dividend stocks in 4 countries of 3 defensive sectors (banking & finance, utilities, oil & gas) with readers as defenders in current bearish stock markets (read each details in this article to fully understand on how to position in these giant stocks):

1) Singapore Dividend Bank Stock – OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)

2) Malaysia Dividend Bank Stock – Public Bank (Bursa: 1295)

3) Hong Kong Dividend Utility Stock – CK Infrastructure / CKI (HKEx: 1038)

4) US Dividend Oil & Gas Stock – Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD)

The best time to invest in global dividend giant stocks is always during global stock crisis (eg. Year 2020-2021 during pandemic, 2008—2009 during subprime crisis, etc), not only able to maximize the dividend yield (due to lower entry share price), also could have higher potential of capital gains (when market cycle moves from fear in low optimism to greed in high optimism). Dividend stock investing is not based on stock strategy (Buy & Hold for dividends) alone, may be integrated with cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High), growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains), swing / momentum trading (Buy & Hold for short term / medium term gains), defensive investing and other Ein55 strategies.

However, not all the high dividend yield stocks (potential value trap) are suitable for dividend investing. A growing business in the past may not be sustainable during COVID-19 period and a dividend stock may not able to continue the payment of dividend. Similarly, even a dividend stock may have strong and sustainable business but if share prices is bearish due to emotional stock market or declining sector, it may not be a good choice for investors to Buy Low (prices may get lower in short term), integration with trading or alignment with promising sectors would help for a smooth entry.

Fundamental Analysis alone is not sufficient, a low PB or low PE or high dividend yield stock may be a value trap as this may be the result of lower share price with weakening businesses. Therefore, deeper analysis is required with LOFTP (Level, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical, Personal Analysis) Strategies.

Let’s learn these 4 giant dividend stocks from 3 promising sectors (banks, utilities, oil & gas) as defenders in 4 countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong and US), understanding the business nature, investment clock and unique strategy.

1) Singapore Dividend Bank Stock – OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)

With rising interest rates globally, bank sector would earn more in interest income (mainly through higher net interest margin, NIM). With accelerated pandemic recovery, banks would also make more profits in non-interest incomes (eg. insurance, credit card, investment, fund management).

So, giant bank stocks usually are good choices for dividend stocks as defenders during bearish market but they could change position as a striker with higher capital gains when stock market is bullish.

OCBC has nearly 100 years of business with merging and acquisition of many banks, supported by major shareholder, Lee Family, as well as an important subsidiary (contributing to about 30% earnings of OCBC), Great Eastern (SGX: G07), an insurance giant stock which has over 100 years of proven operations. Both giant stocks have experienced numerous stock market “crisis” over the past decades, survival-of-the-fittest principle is fully demonstrated, not comparable by any new rising star or promising IPO stock with limited history.

OCBC has strong business performance, after 60% dividend cap during FY2020 is lifted, dividend yield is back to 4.5%, highest among the 3 major Singapore Banks (OCBC, DBS, UOB), partly due to more undervalue in share prices. Over the past 10 years, OCBC has increased dividends payment by 2.5X times, assuming similar performance in the next 10 years, dividend yield could increase to about 10% for long term investors.

OCBC is still at moderate low Ein55 Optimism (<50%) but recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $13/share (about 8% potential upside in medium term) or over $15/share when market emotion may be greedy again. The stock is well balanced, suitable for dividend investing (Buy & Hold for dividend), growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains), but not for cyclic investing (near to fair price) nor trading when trend is still sideways.

OCBC Bank is an all-rounded stock but an investor or trader may need diversification over a portfolio of 10-20 giant stocks in 3 sectors of 3 countries, not to buy only 1 giant stock (concentration risk).

2) Malaysia Dividend Bank Stock – Public Bank (Bursa: 1295)

Similar as Singapore, Malaysia bank stocks also benefit from rising interest rates and reopening of economy, especially the international borders are widely opened to tourists.

Public Bank is one of a few remaining private banks (another is Hong Leong Bank, Bursa: 5819) in Malaysia with strong growing businesses. Public Bank is very prudent in expenses, staff cost is one of the lowest among the peers. It also has an insurance giant stock (LPI, Bursa: 8621) as subsidiary.

Relative to OCBC and peers in Singapore, Public Bank is moderate in dividend payment (about 3.3% dividend based on current share prices) but stronger in growth and high cyclic potential due to share prices heavily discounted over the past few years with lagging Malaysia economy.

Public Bank is still at moderate low Ein55 Optimism (<50%) but recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $6/share (about 30% potential upside in medium term). The stock is well balanced, suitable for dividend investing (Buy & Hold for dividend), growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains), cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High) and even trading when price is back to uptrend in short term.

Public Bank is an all-rounded stock but an investor or trader may need diversification over a portfolio of 10-20 giant stocks in 3 sectors of 3 countries, not to buy only 1 giant stock (concentration risk).

3) Hong Kong Dividend Utility Stock – CK Infrastructure / CKI (HKEx: 1038)

Utilities sector has defensive business (eg. power or water supplies with fixed rates for several years), therefore able to generate consistent dividends, even during a bearish stock market.

CKI is under CKH (HKEX: 1), both are Hang Seng Index component stocks with major sponsor, Li Ka-shing, the richest person in Hong Kong. CKI also owns Power Assets (HKEx: 6) and Hong Kong Electric, as well as global utilities businesses, contributing to dividend yield of 4.7% (based on current share prices), a defensive stock popular among Hong Kong investors, especially with bearish stock market driven by ATM (Alibaba / Tencent / Meituan) and other technology stocks.

CKI is still at low Ein55 Optimism (<25%) but recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $80/share (about 60% potential upside in medium term). The stock is well balanced, suitable for dividend investing (Buy & Hold for dividend), growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains), cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High) and even trading when price is back to uptrend in short term.

CKI is an all-rounded stock but an investor or trader may need diversification over a portfolio of 10-20 giant stocks in 3 sectors of 3 countries, not to buy only 1 giant stock (concentration risk).

4) US Dividend Oil & Gas Stock – Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD)

Oil & Gas sector usually has cyclic business but commodity prices at higher optimism are supporting the giant stocks in oil & gas with stronger business. EPD is a special oil & gas stock with defensive business in midstream sector on delivery of crude oil and natural gas. The earnings and cashflows are stable as business based on future contracts, less sensitive to volatile oil & gas prices.

Russia-Ukraine war has pushed the commodity prices to new high while demand for delivery of oil & gas would be more. Even when one day oil price may fall to lower optimism, EPD could still generate passive incomes which dividend payment has been consistent over the past few decades, currently dividend yield is 6.9% (about 4.3% net dividend yield after over 38% withholding tax to US government).

EPD is under MLP business model which can maximize dividend without corporate level tax, paying dividend 4 times each year, behaving like a REIT (both are required to pay 90% incomes as dividends to shareholders).

EPD is still at moderate low Ein55 Optimism (<50%) but recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $30/share (about 30% potential upside in medium term). The stock is well balanced, suitable for dividend investing (Buy & Hold for dividend), growth investing (Buy & Hold for capital gains), cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High) and even trading when price is back to uptrend in short term.

EPD is an all-rounded stock but an investor or trader may need diversification over a portfolio of 10-20 giant stocks in 3 sectors of 3 countries, not to buy only 1 giant stock (concentration risk).

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Commodity Market, Fundamental Analysis, Macroeconomy, Market Optimism, Stock Market Tagged: bank stock, Charity Course, dividend stock, Hong Kong Market, oil & gas, US Stocks

76 Singapore Commodity and Malaysia Plantation Stocks (天时地利)

Posted on March 31, 2022 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Supply chain disruptions during pandemic has resulted in surging commodity prices (eg. palm oil and other agricultural products, crude oil, metals, etc). The situation becomes worst with recent Russia-Ukraine war, global inflations would be higher in near term, pushing commodity market to even higher optimism.

Instead of worrying about uncertain markets, a smart investor may consider strong commodity giant stocks with protection by rising commodity sector business, a natural way to hedge against high inflation with interest rate hike.

In this article, you will learn from Dr Tee on 76 Singapore Commodity and Malaysia Plantation Stocks to profit in current stock market, some may be considered for longer term investing and / or short term trading with COVID-19 recovery stock rally and high inflations. Bonus for readers who could read every word of the entire article, learning unique strategy to position in 6 Singapore and Malaysia commodity / plantation (mainly palm oil) giant stocks for both passive incomes (dividend) and capital gains with potential share price appreciation. Both Ein55 Optimism levels and intrinsic values will be shared for each giant stock:

3 Singapore Giant Commodity Stocks:

– Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Golden Agri Resources (SGX: E5H), First Resources (SGX: EB5)

3 Malaysia Giant Plantation Stocks:

– United Plantations (Bursa: 2089), Genting Plantations (Bursa: 2291), Kim Loong Resources (Bursa: 5027)

These stocks have plantations and processing factories mainly on palm oil and some also on other agricultural products (eg. sugar, wheat, seeds, etc). Singapore and Malaysia has the most number of palm oil giant stocks in the world with plantations mainly based in Malaysia and Indonesia.

The best time to invest in 35 Singapore commodity stocks and 41 Malaysia plantation stocks (total 76 stocks) is always during global stock crisis (eg. Year 2020-2021 during pandemic, 2008—2009 during subprime crisis, etc), not only able to maximize the dividend yield (due to lower entry share price), also could have higher potential of capital gains (when market cycle moves from fear in low optimism to greed in high optimism). Commodity stock investing is not based on stock strategy (Buy Low Sell High) alone, may be integrated with dividend investing, growth investing, swing trading, momentum trading, cyclic investing, defensive investing and other Ein55 strategies.

More importantly, commodity stock investing has to be integrated with commodity market itself, eg, riding the uptrend of commodity prices. Since palm oil prices are at very high Ein55 Optimism over 75% (very bullish), most palm oil giant stocks are more suitable for short term to medium term trading, while a few could still be considered for longer term investing. So, alignment with short term prices by Technical Analysis is helpful (eg. ensure higher high and high low in share prices).

There are 76 Singapore commodity stocks and Malaysia plantation stocks (not all are giant stocks with Dr Tee criteria), based on the last price traded (30 Mar 2022), sorted by 3 key Fundamental Criteria:
1) ROE (a criteria for growth stocks, eg. ROE > 5%),
2) Dividend Yield, DY (a criteria for dividend stocks, eg. DY > 3%),
3) Price-to-Book (PB) ratio, Price/NAV (a criteria for undervalue stocks, eg. PB < 1).

From the table sorted below, 50% (38/76 stocks) are undervalue (Price to Book ratio, PB < 1), mainly due to COVID-19 stock crisis, affecting commodity business with bearish share prices a few years ago but trend is reversed currently with bullish commodity market. There are 64% (49/76 stocks) have growing businesses (over 5% ROE, Return on Equity) with rising commodity prices while only 18% (14/76 stocks) were making losses during pandemic in Year 2021. There are nearly 50% (37/76 stocks) were paying dividend but only 20 stocks (26%) having dividend yield over 3%, potential for dividend investing (higher dividend yield may not be better).

No	76 SG+MY Commodity Stocks	ROE (%)	PB	DY (%)
1	Asia Enterprises (SGX: A55)	3.9	0.6	5.1
2	AsiaPhos (SGX: 5WV)	-8332.5	11.3	–
3	Bumitama Agri (SGX: P8Z)	16.7	1.4	3.2
4	China Mining (SGX: BHD)	27.3	0.5	–
5	CNMC Goldmine (SGX: 5TP)	4.2	1.7	0.9
6	Cosmo Steel (SGX: B9S)	2.9	0.6	3.2
7	Don Agro (SGX: GRQ)	15.3	0.6	3.2
8	First Resources (SGX: EB5)	13.5	2.0	3.1
9	Fortress Minerals (SGX: OAJ)	37.7	3.0	2.2
10	Geo Energy Resources (SGX: RE4)	51.2	1.4	19.0
11	Global Palm Resources (SGX: BLW)	9.3	0.7	7.9
12	Golden Agri-Resources (SGX: E5H)	10.2	0.6	5.3
13	Golden Energy (SGX: AUE)	23.5	1.8	–
14	Halcyon Agri (SGX: 5VJ)	0.6	0.6	–
15	HG Metal (SGX: BTG)	10.9	0.5	9.7
16	Indofood Agri (SGX: 5JS)	6.5	0.5	2.0
17	Intraco (SGX: I06)	-1.6	0.7	–
18	Jawala (SGX: 1J7)	14.2	1.1	2.7
19	Kencana Agri (SGX: BNE)	54.6	1.5	–
20	Mewah Intl (SGX: MV4)	11.8	0.7	2.5
21	MSC (SGX: NPW)	20.3	3.1	1.6
22	Nam Lee Metal (SGX: G0I)	9.9	0.6	4.2
23	NSL (SGX: N02)	1.0	0.7	5.6
24	Resources Global (SGX: QSD)	40.0	1.0	2.5
25	Samko Timber (SGX: E6R)	-23.9	12.2	–
26	Shen Yao (SGX: A78)	-42.9	1.4	–
27	Soon Lian (SGX: 5MD)	17.0	0.5	1.7
28	Southern Alliance (SGX: QNS)	40.4	2.9	2.3
29	Sri Trang Agro (SGX: NC2)	34.0	0.9	15.8
30	Union Gas (SGX: 1F2)	26.6	4.3	2.4
31	Union Steel (SGX: BLA)	12.4	0.4	6.0
32	USP Group (SGX: BRS)	-5.7	0.2	–
33	VCPlus (SGX: 43E)	-44.2	15.0	–
34	Wilmar International (SGX: F34)	9.5	1.1	3.3
35	Wilton Resources (SGX: 5F7)	6.2	1.9	–
36	AASIA (Bursa: 7054)	-3.4	0.4	–
37	BKAWAN (Bursa: 1899)	18.1	1.6	4.2
38	BLDPLNT (Bursa: 5069)	10.3	1.3	0.3
39	BPLANT (Bursa: 5254)	8.9	0.8	–
40	CEPAT (Bursa: 8982)	13.4	0.8	–
41	CHINTEK (Bursa: 1929)	9.3	1.0	3.8
42	DUTALND (Bursa: 3948)	1.1	0.2	2.9
43	FAREAST (Bursa: 5029)	13.1	1.7	–
44	FGV (Bursa: 5222)	21.5	1.3	–
45	Genting Plantations (GENP) (Bursa: 2291)	8.4	1.5	–
46	GLBHD (Bursa: 7382)	-4.9	0.3	–
47	GOPENG (Bursa: 2135)	-0.9	0.6	–
48	HARNLEN (Bursa: 7501)	-7.1	0.6	–
49	HSPLANT (Bursa: 5138)	11.9	1.1	6.7
50	INCKEN (Bursa: 2607)	-2.0	0.3	–
51	INNO (Bursa: 6262)	26.8	2.6	–
52	IOICORP (Bursa: 1961)	13.9	2.5	2.6
53	JTIASA (Bursa: 4383)	2.8	0.8	–
54	Kim Loong Resources (KMLOONG) (Bursa: 5027)	12.7	2.3	3.5
55	KLK (Bursa: 2445)	19.0	2.2	4.0
56	KLUANG (Bursa: 2453)	4.6	0.4	0.8
57	MALPAC (Bursa: 4936)	4.3	0.5	–
58	MATANG (Bursa: 0189)	1.8	0.8	2.2
59	MHC (Bursa: 5026)	14.7	0.8	–
60	NPC (Bursa: 5047)	2.1	0.4	–
61	NSOP (Bursa: 2038)	4.3	0.5	–
62	PINEPAC (Bursa: 1902)	-5.0	0.3	–
63	PLS (Bursa: 9695)	5.1	1.4	–
64	RSAWIT (Bursa: 5113)	-1.9	1.3	–
65	RVIEW (Bursa: 2542)	6.0	0.6	–
66	SBAGAN (Bursa: 2569)	7.2	0.3	2.2
67	SHCHAN (Bursa: 4316)	38.0	0.5	–
68	SIMEPLT (Bursa: 5285)	14.9	2.3	–
69	SOP (Bursa: 5126)	18.2	1.1	–
70	SWKPLNT (Bursa: 5135)	19.0	1.1	–
71	TAANN (Bursa: 5012)	17.8	1.4	–
72	TDM (Bursa: 2054)	-4.4	0.7	–
73	THPLANT (Bursa: 5112)	10.8	1.2	–
74	TSH (Bursa: 9059)	10.3	1.4	–
75	UMCCA (Bursa: 2593)	1.0	0.8	1.8
76	United Plantations (UTDPLT) (Bursa: 2089)	19.4	2.3	6.3

However, not all the 76 Singapore Commodity and Malaysia Plantation stocks listed are giant stocks. A growing business in the past may not be sustainable during COVID-19 period and an undervalue stock may remain lagging in share prices for many years, could end up as a crisis stock. Fundamental Analysis alone is not sufficient, a low PB or low PE or high dividend yield stock may be a value trap as this may be the result of lower share price with weakening businesses. Therefore, deeper analysis is required with LOFTP (Level, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical, Personal Analysis) Strategies.

Let’s learn these 6 commodity and plantation giant stocks (mainly related to palm oil) in Singapore and Malaysia, understanding the business nature, investment clock and unique strategy.

1) Singapore Commodity Giant Stock – Wilmar International (SGX: F34)

Among the 6 giant stocks studied, Wilmar has the largest market cap (about 10 times more relative to others), also the 6^th largest stock in 30 STI component stocks. A giant is not defined by the size, even small cap stock could be a giant stock based on Dr Tee criteria.

The IPO of Wilmar subsidiaries in China and India help Wilmar to grow its market value further. Major shareholder is PPB Group (Bursa: 4065), Perlis Plantations Berhad, controlled by Kuok Family (led by Robert Kuok, the richest person in Malaysia). This is additional bonus with such a strong sponsor.

Wilmar has stronger business, mainly supported by higher commodity prices (eg. palm oil and sugar, etc). However, due to too bullish palm oil prices, when high inflation is tamed in future, it may affect its cyclic stock prices. Therefore, currently Wilmar (as well as other 5 giant stocks studied) is more suitable for short to medium term trading until the commodity market falling down from high optimism one day (likely triggered by another Black Swan).

Wilmar is still at moderate low Ein55 Optimism (<50%) but recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $6/share (about 30% potential upside in medium term). The stock is well balanced, suitable for growth investing (Buy & Hold), cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High) or even dividend investing (about 3% dividend yield).

2) Singapore Commodity Giant Stock – Golden Agri Resources (SGX: E5H)

Golden Agri Resources is a very cyclic stock, share prices has been bearish over the past 10 years (2010-2020, suitable for shorting then), incurring big loss for long term investors. The business is also more cyclic in nature, currently having upside potential with rising palm oil prces.

Crisis (eg. lower share prices) is an opportunity only for a giant stock. Despite Golden Agri does not have very strong business, its foundation is good, able to recover in share prices after 10 years of “winter” for business and stock prices.

Golden Agri is still at moderate low Ein55 Optimism (about 30%) but recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $0.60/share (about 2X potential upside but at the price of relatively higher risk). The stock is more suitable for cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High), aligning with palm oil optimism until the bull market has ended.

3) Singapore Commodity Giant Stock – First Resources (SGX: EB5)

First Resources is relatively smaller stock but it is also a giant stock, more suitable for shorter term trading as Ein55 Optimism is at fair price (about 50%). The share price is recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for short term trading.

The stock is more suitable for swing trading (Buy Low Sell High in weeks or months) or momentum trading (Buy High Sell Higher with price breakout), aligning with palm oil optimism until the bull market has ended. Alignment with short term prices by Technical Analysis is helpful (eg. ensure higher high and high low in share prices).

4) Malaysia Plantation Giant Stock – United Plantations (Bursa: 2089)

United Plantations is a rare giant stock suitable for long term investing (having over 100 years of history with Danish management for several generations in Malaysia). The parent company (UIE) is listed in Denmark, the close connection with Europe market also helps in its business positioning, especially with tighter Europe regulations for palm oil products.

United Plantations has relatively stronger and more defensive business than other peers in the same sector. Therefore, it is one of the few giant commodity stocks which may be considered for long term investing, in addition to short term trading, despite operating under a cyclic commodity market.

United Plantations is at low Ein55 Optimism (<25%) but recovering steadily from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of over $20/share (about 40% potential upside). The stock is more suitable for mudium to long term investing (Buy Low Sell High), entry with consideration of short term trading is helpful to avoid price correction.

5) Malaysia Plantation Giant Stock – Genting Plantations (Bursa: 2291)

Genting Plantation is under Genting Berhad (Bursa: 3182), a giant group under severe crisis during pandemic (casino, cruise, hotel, plantations, etc). However, the strong foundation of parent company has helped to support subsidiaries (except for Genting Hong Kong with cruise business).

As a result, Genting Plantations is suitable for Crisis Investing to Buy Low Sell High, leveraging on very low prices with calculated risks. This is comparable with stock investing in Golden Agri, higher risk for higher gains (Genting Plantations is stronger than Golden Agri for relative business comparison).

Genting Plantations is still at low Ein55 Optimism (<25%) but recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $17/share (about 2X potential upside but at the price of relatively higher risk). The stock is more suitable for cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High), aligning with palm oil optimism until the bull market has ended.

6) Malaysia Plantation Giant Stock – Kim Loong Resources (Bursa: 5027)

Kim Loong Resources has strong business performance, comparable with United Plantations. It is smaller in size but a strong giant stock internally. However, due to relatively higher optimism than United Plantations, Kim Loong is more suitable for short trading or medium term investing.

Kim Loong Resources is at moderate high Ein55 Optimism (>50%, exceeding Ein55 intrinsic value). The share price is recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for short term trading.

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Cycle Investing, Market Optimism, Stock Market Tagged: commodity, crisis stock investing, Malaysia Stocks

Stock Market Sentiment Investing Strategy with Fear and Greed of Black Swans (多数服从少数)

Posted on March 18, 2022 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Global investors and traders are worrying about the current stock market fears which may become the next Black Swan: Russia / Ukraine war, high inflation and interest rate hike, resulting in the largest dip in US stock market (13% for S&P500, 20% for NASDAQ) since COVID19 crisis. At the same time, China and Hong Kong suffer severe waves of COVID19, resulting in significant stock market correction, especially for technology stocks (eg. ATM stocks of Alibaba, Tencent and Meituan which contribute to 1/3 of Hang Seng Index). However, at the most fearful time, there is always a strong rebound in stock prices. Is it time to Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait or Shorting?

Before sharing any personal views on current stock market, Dr Tee often likes to begin with a unique “Stock Market Sentiment” Strategy with a survey for my investing workshop audience or readers:

“What do you think of the Singapore stock market trend for the next 1 year?”
A = Bear Market (STI < 10%) B = Flat Market (STI within +/- 10%) C = Bull Market (STI > 10%)

Please make your choice before continue reading further. This is an important move because you will be part of “Dr Tee Indicator” on future market trend.

The participants with diversified background and experience representing the mass market will cast their votes. Here is the latest statistics (see Figure above) based on recent survey: Bear Market (6%), Flat Market (40%), Bull Market (54%). Please compare your choice with this overall distribution on market outlook.

This unique Dr Tee Personal Indicator is making use of the psychological weaknesses in traders/investors who usually buy high (when greedy) and sell low (when fearful). Therefore, the recommendation of investing calls of buy / sell / hold, is against the mainstream view:
• Buy: when bear market view > 75%
• Sell: when bull market view > 75%
• Hold: when flat market view > 25% (current market)

The current majority market view (40% flat market & 54% bull market) aligns well with the current market trend in Singapore as Straits Times Index (STI) has been recovering gradually from low of 2233 points during COVID-19 pandemic, trading at fair price of 3337 points with uptrend potential with support of growing economy. The bearish view is relatively low (6%, less than 50% neutral line), matching the declining fear during Covid-19 stock crisis with recovery of Singapore and Asian stock markets.

This Ein55 Personal Indicator has monitored the stock market regularly since Nov 2011, successfully predicting a golden entry point to stock market after the US credit crisis in late 2011 with >75% bearish views. Unfortunately, during the next worst time of Mar 2020 pandemic, Dr Tee could not meet up with audience, therefore missing another pessimistic point (>75% bearish views) in this survey but investors won’t miss the investing opportunity with Optimism Strategy (1 of Dr Tee 55 investing styles). This unique investing methodology is consistent with the famous saying by Warren Buffett: “Be greedy when others are fearful. Be fearful when others are greedy”, but in a measurable form of investors emotions.

Response from each stock market (eg. Singapore, US, Hong Kong / China, Malaysia, etc) could be different as it greed and fear could be country or even sector (eg. technology vs value stocks) dependent as their Ein55 Optimism levels are different. If similar survey is conducted in Hong Kong recently, over 75% local investors or traders likely will have bearish views. However, no one could buy at the lowest point (if yes, then it is luck), therefore trend analysis on reversal pattern is required before Buy Low.

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Market Optimism, Market Outlook, Stock Market, Uncategorized Tagged: global financial crisis, market cycle investing, market outlook

6 Singapore Banking and Finance Giant Stocks under Potential Black Swan (因祸得福)

Posted on February 24, 2022 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Are you worrying about the current stock market fears which may become the next Black Swan: Russia / Ukraine war, high inflation and interest rate hike, resulting in significant market correction? Is it time to Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait or Shorting?

In this Dr Tee 1.5hr video education (6 Giant Singapore Banking & Finance Stocks under Potential Black Swan), you will learn:
1) Impact of Political Economy and Business on Stocks
– Russia / Ukraine War
– High Inflation & Interest Rates Hike
– Recent Final Financial Reports of Case Studies

2) Singapore Stock Market Outlook
– Short term, medium term & long term

3) 6 Giant Singapore Banking & Finance Stocks
– SG Giant Bank Stock: DBS Bank (SGX: D05)
– SG Giant Bank Stock: OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)
– SG Giant Bank Stock: UOB Bank (SGX: U11)
– SG Giant Insurance Stock: UOI – United Overseas Insurance (SGX: U13)
– SG Giant Insurance Stock: Great Eastern (SGX: G07)
– SG Giant Financial Stock: Singapore Exchange – SGX (SGX: S68)

4) Long Term / Mid Term Investing vs Short Term Trading with 3 Strategies
– Optimism Analysis (Cyclic Investing)
– Fundamental Analysis (Value Investing)
– Technical Analysis (Trend-following Trading)

Here is English Version of Dr Tee Video Course (Chinese version is also available as Dr Tee is bilingual). Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks.

English Video:

你害怕目前潜在的股票市场黑天鹅 (俄罗斯与乌克兰战争、高通膨、加息) 吗？应该买、卖、持有、等待、还是卖空？

在这Dr Tee 1小时教育视频（6只新加坡金融牛股在黑天鹅阴影），您可学习：
1）政治经济影响股市
– 俄罗斯与乌克兰战争
– 高通膨、加息
– 最新财表

2）新加坡股市展望

3） 6只新加坡金融强股
– 新加坡银行巨股: 星展银行 DBS Bank (SGX: D05)
– 新加坡银行巨股: 华侨银行 OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)
– 新加坡银行巨股: 大华银行 UOB Bank (SGX: U11)
– 新加坡保险巨股: 大华保险 UOI – United Overseas Insurance (SGX: U13)
– 新加坡保险巨股: 大东方控股 Great Eastern (SGX: G07)
– 新加坡金融巨股: 新加坡交易所 Singapore Exchange – SGX (SGX: S68)

4）长中期投资与短期交易三招
– 乐观指数分析 (周期投资)
– 基础分析 (价值投资)
– 技术分析 (趋势交易)

这儿是 Dr Tee 华语视频（英语视频也已完成，Dr Tee 双语皆行）。请欣赏鄙作，留言求进步。您可订阅 Dr Tee Youtube 频道(Ein Tee)，链接未来投资视频。

Chinese Video (华语视频):

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Cycle Investing, Market Optimism, Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: bank stock, economy vs stock, global financial crisis, value investing

70% Profits of Healthcare Giant Stock – Q&M Dental (苦尽甘来)

Posted on June 30, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Over the past 1 year of pandemic, Dr Tee has shared with Ein55 graduates, forum readers and public webinars audience on this giant healthcare stock, Q&M Dental Group (SGX: QC7) with at least 3 articles and multiple comments regularly, witnessing surging of share prices from low Ein55 Optimism of $0.40+ share price to breaking above $0.50+/share resistance, predicting the fair value with Ein55 Intrinsic Value of $0.70/share, today is already $0.80/share (about 70% to 100% profits if an investor could buy & hold for over 1 year), moving towards next target of greedy price of high Ein55 Optimism at about $1/share.

Let’s learn from Dr Tee on this journey of making money and how to take action from now, assuming today is the first time you read Dr Tee educational article on global giant stocks.

Since Year 2015, Q&M Dental has been declining in share prices, mainly due to slower business growth (still profitable) and bearish market sentiment with little knowledge of this largest dental service provider in Singapore which also has dental clinics in Malaysia and China. Over the past 6 years, the share price has dropped from peak of about $0.90/share to about low of $0.35 during pandemic. For a giant stock, how it falls down (by 3 times) would imply how it may recover one day with similar scale (assuming by 3 times would be $0.35/share x 3, to about $1/share, aligning with Ein55 Optimism at high level).

Q&M Dental suffered in business temporarily in first half of pandemic but recovering quickly after Circuit Breaker was over as few people could resist tooth pains for months. Q&M Dental subsidiary, Acumen Research Lab is an HPB authorized COVID19 test service provider, providing fuel for share prices to grow with additional future earnings.

Some Ein55 graduates even invested below $0.40 – $0.50/share with contrarian dividend strategy during the worst time of pandemic. Dividend yield can be 10% with 4.3 cents/share dividend over the past 1 year if one could invest at $0.43 share price which was common in Year 2020. At current price of $0.80, beyond Ein55 Intrinsic Value of about $0.70, the dividend yield is moderate at 4%, comparable with Singapore REITs, therefore still a dividend giant stock. The gain so far with this strategy (Buy at low Ein55 Optimism of about $0.40) is about 2 times or 100% profits, able to hold as understanding Q&M Dental has economic moat, even under worst time of pandemic. Next few years would be the harvest time to enjoy the fruits, an investor has option to Sell High (following Ein55 Optimism). Due to cyclical nature of this giant stock, Buy Low Sell High strategy is more suitable than Buy Low & Hold very long term (usually for growth investing) unless the business fundamental of Q&M Dental is growing more consistently in future.

For a giant stock, regardless short term trading (price action with trend-following strategies), medium term trading (Buy Low Sell High) or long term investing (Buy Low & Hold for both dividend and price growth), all could make money, but need to take one of the actions. If there is no action, a reader always feel regret or sour feeling when reading successes of other investors, despite Q&M Dental was shared by Dr Tee before in at least 3 articles as a highly potential giant stock:

Dr Tee Article 1 posted on 24 Apr 2020 (Q&M price = $0.52)

https://www.ein55.com/2020/04/healthcare-giant-stock-qm-dental/

Dr Tee Article 2 posted on 4 Sep 2020 (Q&M price = $0.46)

https://www.ein55.com/2020/09/11-singapore-healthcare-covid-19-stocks/

Dr Tee Article 3 posted on 31 May 2021 (Q&M price = $0.68)
https://www.ein55.com/2021/05/seasonality-effect-with-ex-dividend-months-on-singapore-stock-market-2009-2021/

Another related sibling Singapore healthcare giant stock to take note is Raffles Medical Group (SGX: BSL), usually share price correlation is about 2X of Q&M which is already $0.80, implying minimum potential of Raffles Medical is about $0.80 x2 = $1.60 (currently at $1.18, still moderate low optimism, having more potential than Q&M Dental currently). For Ein55 graduates who have mastered 55 Ein55 investing styles, would know the actual potential of Raffles Medical. Don’t regret again if Dr Tee may share on this giant stock next time.

Most people regret of missing an opportunity, did not know that they don’t miss it at all, even reading today here (eg. applying short term momentum trading on Q&M Dental to Buy High Sell Highe). The key is to confirm whether it is a giant stock, then next step is to apply the right LOFTP (Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) strategy on short term trading and / or long term investing based on current market condition, aligning with own unique personality.

There are many other global giant stocks prepared to surge with pandemic recovery, are you ready to become their business partners as a stock investor?

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

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Filed Under: Market Optimism, Stock Market, Value Investing Tagged: dividend stock, Healthcare Stocks

50% Profits of The Hour Glass Stock in 4 months

Posted on May 25, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Congratulations to readers who have taken action on The Hour Glass (luxury watches stock, SGX: AGS) as Dr Tee has shared this giant stock in several educational posts over the past 1 year. The profit is nearly 50% from $0.80 (breakout) to $1.18 today.

In the earlier educational article on 100 Singapore Dividend Stocks (Mar 2021), Dr Tee shared the intrinsic value of The Hour Glass is about $1.20, now the price has surged to $1.18. It could have more upside but requires market greed to drive it to higher optimism. This is value investing, buy the right stock and right price, just wait patiently for the fruit in 2 targets: intrinsic value and also possible higher optimism price target.

As shown in Optimism Chart, The Hour Glass was still low optimism a few months ago, having 2X upside potential. It is a growth, dividend and cyclic stock, 3-in-1 stock. More importantly, this is a giant stock with very strong business fundamental.

For those who missed the 80 cents price breakout (low optimism, despite nearly highest price at that time) in Feb 2021 with rally to 90+ cents, there is a second chance recently. After the special gift from government on fear of Phase2 COVID measures on 14 May 2021 (Hour Glass dropped to 90 cents), Hour Glass has surged 20% last week and 10% this week, partly supported by good earnings results for financial year ending Mar 2021 (8% better results in last 1 year of pandemic compared to before pandemic), declaring 2X higher interim dividend than last year.

Dividend is like honey to attract bees (traders and investors) to work, helping to support the rising prices (capital gains). However, the plant (stock) needs to produce aromatic flower (growing business) first, else the honey supply may end one day. The best integration of strategy could be dividend + growth investing, having the best of 2 worlds, collecting passive income slowly while enjoying the capital gains with compounding of time. Patient investors could make big money but it requires strong determination.

Major shareholder Dr Henry Tay may know the investment marketing strategy, giving extra 2 cents per share dividend but share price has gained extra 28 cents. Timing of action is crucial, especially for stocks with Financial Reports ending in Mar 201, better results in Q2 would help to support the share prices (except for tech stocks at high optimism under sector rotation). So, a giant stock at low optimism is key. Hour Glass still has upside potential but it is no longer a low hanging fruit (low optimism giant stock) as shared over the past 1 year.

We may not need to own a Rolex watch even if we could afford. Instead, saving for the capital, an investor could indirectly own many luxury watches (Rolex, Patek Philippe, Hublot, etc) through investing in The Hour Glass stock as a business partner. Dr Henry Tay of The Hour Glass is even smarter, also invest in stock of main competitor, Cortina Holdings (SGX: C41), having strong control of luxury watches market in Singapore. In a bullish stock market with growing economy, consumer discretionary stock (including luxury watches) would have higher upside in both businesses and share prices. Alignment of individual stock (Level 1) to sector (Level 2), country (Level 3) and global (Level 4) economy and stock markets is crucial.

Readers may learn further, there are still many low optimism giant stocks waiting. Learn further in the next free 4hr Free Webinar by Dr Tee on other giant stocks (as good as The Hour Glass) which could still wait for you.

===================================

There are over 1500 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Market Optimism, Stock Market Tagged: cyclic investing stock, dividend stock, growth stock

88 Singapore 10X Growth Stocks for Bullish New Year (招财牛年)

Posted on February 18, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

A daydream of an investor may be to become 10X richer in this New Year, similar to bullish 10X Stocks such as IFAST and Tesla over the past 1 year. This dream could be realized one day but patience is required with strategies aligned with own personality.

In this article, you will learn from Dr Tee on 88 Growth Stocks in Singapore, some may be considered for longer term investing and / or short term trading with COVID-19 recovery stock rally. Bonus for readers who could read every words of the entire article, learning unique strategy to position in 6 giant growth stocks and also generalized strategy, applicable for all growth stocks including speculative growing Bitcoin.

1) Growth Small Cap Stock: IFAST Corporation (SGX: AIY)

2) Growth Technology Stock: AEM Holdings (SGX: AWX)

3) Growth Healthcare Stock: Top Glove Corporation (SGX: BVA / Bursa: 7113)

4) Growth Commodity Stock: Wilmar International (SGX: F34)

5) Growth REIT: Keppel DC REIT (SGX: AJBU)

6) Growth Bank Stock: DBS Bank (SGX: D05)

Economy for Year 2020 of pandemic is the worst of past few decades, therefore naturally New Year 2021 would have very high probability of stronger economy which could support the stock market. This is especially true for growth stocks with growing businesses, especially for sectors benefiting from COVID-19. Most investors may consider US growth stocks but there are actually growth stocks in each country including Singapore but requires more careful selection.

From the table sorted below for 88 growth stocks in Singapore, each has growing businesses over the past few years with ROE (Return on Equity) over 5%. However, a growing business in the past may not be sustainable during COVID-19 period, could end up as a crisis stock. Fundamental Analysis alone is not sufficient, a growing business may not be a giant stock as share price could be undervalue (eg. IFAST over 1 year ago). Therefore, deeper analysis is required with LOFTP (Level, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical, Personal Analysis) Strategies.

No	Growth Stock	ROE (%)
1	AEM Holdings (SGX: AWX)	39.277 – 46.127
2	AF Global (SGX: L38)	7.546 – 7.835
3	ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust (SGX: K2LU)	5.77
4	Avarga (SGX: U09)	10.909 – 16.183
5	Best World International (SGX: CGN)	33.312 – 37.565
6	BRC Asia (SGX: BEC)	7.69
7	Bukit Sembawang Estates (SGX: B61)	5.748 – 6.071
8	CapitaLand (SGX: C31)	5.677 – 9.144
9	Centurion Corp (SGX: OU8)	16.878 – 17.312
10	Challenger Technologies (SGX: 573)	19.20
11	China Aviation Oil (Singapore) (SGX: G92)	8.122 – 11.956
12	China Everbright Water (SGX: U9E)	8.967 – 9.461
13	Civmec (SGX: P9D)	6.682 – 8.812
14	Cordlife Group (SGX: P8A)	5.010 – 5.803
15	Cortina Holdings (SGX: C41)	14.875 – 16.955
16	CSE Global (SGX: 544)	13.641 – 15.295
17	DBS Bank (SGX: D05)	9.22
18	Delfi (SGX: P34)	10.324 – 12.404
19	EC World Reit (SGX: BWCU)	6.586 – 9.536
20	Excelpoint Technology (SGX: BDF)	11.84
21	Food Empire Holdings (SGX: F03)	12.527 – 12.621
22	Fragrance Group (SGX: F31)	5.731 – 5.774
23	Frencken Group (SGX: E28)	13.064 – 14.345
24	Fu Yu Corporation (SGX: F13)	7.755 – 9.165
25	Great Eastern Holding (SGX: G07)	9.656 – 11.658
26	Hafary Holdings (SGX: 5VS)	8.208 – 14.627
27	Haw Par Corporation (SGX: H02)	5.773 – 6.074
28	HC Surgical Specialists (SGX: 1B1)	21.486 – 31.730
29	Hi-P International (SGX: H17)	12.810 – 13.511
30	Ho Bee Land (SGX: H13)	9.386 – 10.760
31	Hong Fok Corporation (SGX: H30)	5.472 – 5.646
32	IFAST Corporation (SGX: AIY)	20.318
33	InnoTek (SGX: M14)	7.737 – 10.352
34	International Cement Group (SGX: KUO)	7.670 – 8.169
35	IREIT Global (SGX: UD1U)	15.614 – 19.447
36	ISEC Healthcare (SGX: 40T)	7.986 – 11.733
37	Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07)	10.990 – 12.848
38	Jason Marine Group (SGX: 5PF)	7.956 – 8.800
39	JB Foods (SGX: BEW)	15.314 – 18.495
40	JEP Holdings (SGX: 1J4)	10.852 – 12.047
41	Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU)	8.65
42	Kimly (SGX: 1D0)	22.89
43	LHN (SGX: 41O)	19.85
44	Lonza Group (SGX: O6Z)	12.82
45	Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U)	9.558 – 10.313
46	Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U)	6.989 – 8.235
47	MegaChem (SGX: 5DS)	7.744 – 9.044
48	Meghmani SDS (SGX: M30)	17.027 – 19.670
49	Moneymax Financial Services (SGX: 5WJ)	10.776 – 13.586
50	Moya Holdings Asia (SGX: 5WE)	5.802 – 8.681
51	Multi-Chem (SGX: AWZ)	15.52
52	Neo Group (SGX: 5UJ)	15.226 – 31.737
53	OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)	8.285 – 10.663
54	Olam International (SGX: O32)	9.452 – 10.858
55	Overseas Education (SGX: RQ1)	5.735 – 6.814
56	Pan Hong Holdings Group (SGX: P36)	15.439 – 24.742
57	Penguin International (SGX: BTM)	7.56
58	Powermatic Data Systems (SGX: BCY)	11.321 – 14.265
59	Raffles Infrastructure Holdings (SGX: LUY)	13.354 – 17.629
60	Riverstone Holdings (SGX: AP4)	16.520 – 23.263
61	Samurai 2K Aerosol (SGX: 1C3)	6.561 – 11.231
62	SBS Transit (SGX: S61)	13.45
63	Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68)	37.901 – 39.443
64	Sheng Siong Group (SGX: OV8)	24.176 – 29.055
65	SIIC Environment Holdings (SGX: BHK)	6.609 – 7.192
66	Sing Holdings (SGX: 5IC)	11.425 – 15.352
67	Singapore Medical Group (SGX: 5OT)	6.984 – 9.360
68	Singapore Post (SGX: S08)	5.445 – 7.271
69	Singapore Shipping Corporation (SGX: S19)	10.174 – 11.647
70	Sinostar PEC Holdings (SGX: C9Q)	13.639 – 14.966
71	Singapore Technologies Engineering (SGX: S63)	25.387 – 26.007
72	The Hour Glass (SGX: AGS)	11.168 – 12.532
73	Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Group (SGX: T14)	11.170 – 11.610
74	Top Glove Corporation (SGX: BVA)	29.64
75	UG Healthcare Corporation (SGX: 8K7)	25.664 – 53.137
76	UMS Holdings (SGX: 558)	13.794 – 17.241
77	United Global (SGX: 43P)	63.059 – 64.360
78	UOB Bank (SGX: U11)	9.882 – 11.656
79	United Overseas Insurance (SGX: U13)	7.186 – 9.657
80	Valuemax Group (SGX: T6I)	11.733 – 11.767
81	Valuetronics Holdings (SGX: BN2)	13.763 – 14.529
82	Venture Corporation (SGX: V03)	12.318 – 14.547
83	Vicplas International (SGX: 569)	8.08
84	Wee Hur Holdings (SGX: E3B)	8.797 – 9.673
85	Wilmar International (SGX: F34)	7.716 – 8.887
86	Yanlord Land Group (SGX: Z25)	9.178 – 11.861
87	Yangzijiang Shipbuilding RMB (SGX: SO7)	7.549 – 9.986
88	Yangzijiang Shipbuilding SGD (SGX: BS6)	7.249 – 9.986

Here, let’s focus on 6 Singapore Giant Growth Stocks in 6 different sectors, learning the unique positioning for each stock:

1) Growth Small Cap Stock: IFAST Corporation (SGX: AIY)

A giant stock may not need to be big in size, true for IFAST, a small cap stock. Over the last few years, IFAST price has been around $1/share (see earlier article shared by Dr Tee, IFAST was still at lower price then) while businesses continue to grow each year over the past decade, faster speed during pandemic with support of financial technology initiatives.

Over the last 1 year, IFAST share price has surged from 70+ cents to nearly $7, creating a miracle of 10X stock price, comparable with popular international growth stock such as Tesla. IFAST has been a hidden gem, a small cap stock, therefore not getting attention of big funds. With more positive corporate news (eg. overseas expansion), driven by market greed (under theme of fintech), supported by more bigger size investors, it is relatively easier to move a small cap stock.

IFAST stock has created record high price every few months, Optimism level is over 90%, therefore some investors are afraid the “bubble” may burst, even it is a fundamentally strong company. This concern is valid, therefore a safer strategy (applicable for all growth stocks) is to apply trend-following strategy for momentum or swing trading, entering only after recovery from each phase of price correction, ensuring the uptrend prices (higher high, higher low) to support the bull run. Exit depends on own personality, whether longer term investing (business analysis) or shorter term trading (ending of uptrend).

2) Growth Technology Stock: AEM Holdings (SGX: AWX)

Since the dotcom bubble burst in Year 2000, it takes 2 decades for semiconductor sector to rise again. AEM is similar to many semiconductor stocks, cyclical in nature, business could vary from very poor (losses in earlier years) to excellent (over 30% growth in last few years). Therefore, it is crucial not to position in technology growth stocks for long term, aligning with sector cycle (eg. trade with booming in 5G applications).

Over the last 5 years, AEM share price has surged from 4 cents to over $4, creating a miracle of 100X stock price. A stock 10X in share price may have potential to become 100X (common in US stock market, especially over a few decades of growth investing) but not many investors have faith to hold (especially during global financial crisis), therefore only gaining a small 10% profit after selling fast. AEM was a small cap stock, similar to IFAST, therefore relatively easier to move in prices, especially when driven by market greed.

AEM stock has created record high price every year with uptrend semiconductor cycle, Optimism level is over 90%, bubble may not burst in short term as semiconductor sector is still bullish, leading by TSMC with record high demand. Due to high optimism with uptrend prices, AEM may be considered with trend-following trading but a trader has to be prepared for high volatility, strict compliance with S.E.T. (Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices) trading plan.

3) Growth Healthcare Stock: Top Glove Corporation (SGX: BVA / Bursa: 7113)

Over the past 2 decades, Top Glove (Bursa) has multiplied by 500 times in share prices (aligning with 5 times rise during last 1 year of pandemic). Unlike AEM which business may not be sustainable when cyclic semiconductor bubble is burst one day, Top Glove and other glove giant stocks, eg. Riverstone (SGX: AP4), Hartalega (Bursa: 5168), SuperMax (Bursa: 7106) and Kossan (Bursa: 7153), have sustainable businesses for decades due to rising demand in both healthcare and manufacturing sectors, partly supported by lower material cost (rubber).

With recovery of pandemic, there is a significant sector rotation, stocks benefiting from COVID-19 are under significant price correction, despite the earnings are at historical high with strongest businesses ever. Fundamental or business sometimes are being used as excuses to buy up certain growth stocks at high prices. When the market greed is diverted to other sector, the share prices are naturally lower.

Glove stocks including Top Glove are experiencing bearish price trend over the past few months due to sector rotation (changes in target for market greed), prices are corrected significantly but still over 75% Optimism level, may not be suitable for entry due to lack of market speculation (required to sustain higher prices). When these giant glove stocks are falling below intrinsic values or ideally at lower optimism in future stock crisis, it would be good time for long term investing. Currently a better action would be “Wait”.

4) Growth Commodity Stock: Wilmar International (SGX: F34)

Commodity sector (Energy, Agriculture, Precious Metals, etc) has been under low optimism over the past 5 years, recovering gradually over the past 1 year, together with improvement in pandemic condition. So, it is timely to consider commodity stock, aligning to its sector investment clock.

Since Wilmar is listed with RTO in 2006, share price has gone up 10X over the past 2 decades, reflecting the importance of its agriculture products (palm oil, sugar, etc) to modern world with less land for plantations. Wilmar is supported by parent stock PPB (Bursa: 4065) with Kuok Family as sponsor, driven by subsidiary stock, YKA, with bullish 2X prices after recent IPO in China (Shenzhen: 300999).

Commodity has a longer term market cycle but the growth is more moderate (therefore more stable) compared to technology sector (eg. semiconductor / software stocks). Wilmar is near 50% Optimism level of fair value, therefore still reasonable to consider for long term investing or short term trading (supported by uptrend prices, entry after recovery of each price correction).

5) Growth REIT: Keppel DC REIT (SGX: AJBU)

In the internet era with more 5G applications, data usage will be enormous with explosive growth for next decade. So, Keppel DC Reit is positioned nicely to host data storage, collecting consistent growing rental as passive incomes. Keppel DC Reit has 100% business in data center while Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U) has about 1/3 businesses in this growing sector.

Over the past 5 years, Keppel DC Reit has experienced 3X in share prices from $1 to $3 but the gains is not limited share price appreciation. Its dividend is doubled every few years, therefore suitable to position as mid-fielder stock to have a balance of both growth (price appreciation) and dividend (passive income).

After reaching 100% Optimism level during peak of pandemic, Keppel DC Reit has experienced slower growth with sector rotation. The prices (sideways) are not strong enough for shorter term trading and price correction is insufficient for longer term investing (about 75% Optimism). Therefore, similar to glove stocks, an investor may need to “Wait” for next crisis to Buy Low, or wait for next rally to Buy High (only after uptrend is established for short term).

6) Growth Bank Stock: DBS Bank (SGX: D05)

Bank sector is a key pillar of a nation, not to mention DBS Bank, a leader blue chip stock for decades. The worst time of bank stocks during pandemic is over, record high NPL (Non-Performing Loan) and low interest rate but most global banks including DBS are still profitable.

Unlike other strong growth stocks, DBS is a slower but more steady growth stock. Share prices has gone up 5X in cyclical way over the past decade, it is just a matter of time for the stock to become 10X. Many people want to get rich quick, therefore prefer to buy bullish stock with over 2X potential in less than 1 year but unknowingly exposing to high risk (potential price correction exceeding risk tolerance level), especially for speculative stocks with weaker businesses, driven by market greed.

DBS is at 60% Optimism level, higher than fair value, more suitable for medium term trading but Singapore stock market is lack of speculation due to smaller market size. DBS may also be considered as defender with average 5% dividend yield but it is also cyclical in nature due to interest rate and economic cycles, more suitable to invest after each major stock crisis. DBS is a potential 10X stock but not within 1 year as IFAST, more suitable for longer term market cycle investors. Similar strategy may be applied to OCBC Bank (SGX: O39) and UOB Bank (SGX: U11).

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It is not a daydream to own a 10X stock one day. The key difference is 10X within 1 year (eg. IFAST) or over decades (eg. Wilmar and DBS). In short term, stock market behaves like a voting machine, therefore trend-following strategy is crucial to ride the uptrend wave but traders need to overcome greed (to sell high) and fear (to buy low) by following the trading plan strictly. In long term, stock behaves like a weighing machine, therefore fundamental analysis (growing business) with lower optimism undervalue prices would have high probability of winning rate, especially an investor has patience to wait or hold for years, making big money slowly.

This growth investing or trend-following trading strategies may be applied for Bitcoin or other growth / momentum stocks. Unlike growth stocks, Bitcoin (half commodity / half forex) has no business fundamental, therefore some investors may view Bitcoin as speculation. However, value could be derived from prices, as long as there are believers (actual trades of buy and sell), value could be created with Bitcoin remains limited in number (demand more than supply). Similar to gold or land with limited supply, Bitcoin becomes rare, harder to explore new supply in future, main variable will be demand which can be market greed driven.

With more acceptance of Bitcoin as “currency” in real world and support of big funds, Bitcoin has partial quality of growth investing. However, due to the unpredictable nature of technology (eg. safe storage of Bitcoin), it is more suitable as small capital investment. Even Bitcoin has 10X potential after reaching historical high of US$50,000 (over 60% Optimism level), it is volatile and speculative in nature, less than 5% of capital may be considered. Bitcoin has become speculative tools of big players, may not be suitable for retail traders with little capital. Similarly, trend-following strategy (entry after recovery from correction) may be applied for speculative trading. Of course, an investor has a choice to ignore Bitcoin, especially there are so many global and local growth stocks with real businesses.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar, you could ask on any global and local stocks including but not limited to 30 STI component stocks:

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Market Optimism, Market Outlook, Stock Market Tagged: bank stock, glove stock, growth stock, technology stock

4 Global Bank Stocks with Vaccine after Phase 3 COVID-19 (苦尽甘来)

Posted on December 14, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Vaccination is started globally and Singapore will enter Phase 3, bringing hope to end COVID-19 pandemic, as well as light at the end of tunnel for global bank stocks in crisis to recover with great discounted prices.

In this article, you will learn from Dr Tee on 4 Global Giant Bank Stocks of 4 Countries for longer term investing and / or short term trading with COVID-19 recovery stock rally. Bonus for readers who could read every words of the entire article, learning unique strategy to position in each giant bank stocks and also generalized strategy for all bank stocks.

1) Singapore Giant Bank Stock: OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)

2) Malaysia Giant Bank Stock: Public Bank (Bursa: 1295)

3) US Giant Bank Stock: Wells Fargo Bank (NYSE: WFC)

4) HK / China Giant Bank Stock: ICBC Bank (HKEX: 1398)

During COVID-19 pandemic, most bank stocks suffer in businesses mainly due to higher NPL (Non-Performing Loan) and very low interest rate. As a result, many global bank stocks prices are significantly corrected to low optimism level. However, “Buy Low” may not able to “Sell High” in future if a bank business is affected permanently.

Therefore, it is crucial to focus only on giant bank stocks for market cycle investing during COVID-19 stock crisis with Buy Low Sell High strategy. In general, most bank stocks would follow the global stock markets to recover in share prices, especially with improvement in bank businesses and stronger global economy after vaccination is implemented in most countries, allowing life back to normal as before COVID-19.

A giant stock may not need to be big in size, even a small company could be a giant stock. Let’s study 4 giant bank stocks (following Dr Tee criteria) recovering from low optimism in 4 stock exchanges interested by readers:

1) Singapore Giant Bank Stock: OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)

OCBC Bank is the second largest bank in Singapore, businesses during pandemic and share prices in short term (V-shape recovery) are generally aligned with DBS Bank and UOB Bank. These Top 3 largest Singapore banks have to set aside provisions to prepare for higher default and NPL. Singapore MAS also requires the local banks to limit the dividend distributions to 60% of last financial year. This has resulted OCBC Bank stock prices to fall by about 40% during COVID-19 pandemic.

There are 30 Banking & Finance Stocks in Singapore including OCBC Bank (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):

AMTD IB OV (SGX: HKB), B&M Hldg (SGX: CJN), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Edition (SGX: 5HG), G K Goh (SGX: G41), Global Investment (SGX: B73), Great Eastern (SGX: G07), Hong Leong Finance (SGX: S41), Hotung Investment (SGX: BLS), IFAST Corporation (SGX: AIY), IFS Capital (SGX: I49), Intraco (SGX: I06), Maxi-Cash Finance (SGX: 5UF), MoneyMax Finance (SGX: 5WJ), Net Pacific Finance (SGX: 5QY), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), Pacific Century (SGX: P15), Prudential USD (SGX: K6S), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), SHS (SGX: 566), Sing Investments & Finance (SGX: S35), Singapore Reinsurance (SGX: S49), Singapura Finance (SGX: S23), TIH (SGX: T55), Uni-Asia Group (SGX: CHJ), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOB-KAY HIAN HOLDINGS (SGX: U10), UOI (SGX: U13), ValueMax (SGX: T6I), Vibrant Group (SGX: BIP).

The uniqueness of OCBC is the optimism level (34%) is relatively lower than DBS and UOB, therefore having more upside potential in medium term when COVID-19 fear is fading with global vaccination and also entering of Phase-3 COVID-19 measures in Singapore, allowing stronger growth in local economy which needs banks services. While waiting for recovery of share prices to fair value, OCBC stock investors could enjoy bonus with 3+% dividend yield (6% if there is no MAS limitation), much higher than bank interest rate less than 0.5%.

Many investors “play safe” during stock crisis by keeping the money as cash deposits in banks, providing nearly free loan for banks to expand business and multiply wealth. A smart investor would carefully select a portfolio of giant stocks (including banks) to leverage on strong business fundamental to grow in share prices.

2) Malaysia Giant Bank Stock: Public Bank (Bursa: 1295)

Public Bank is the third largest bank in Malaysia, businesses during pandemic and share prices in short term (V-shape recovery) are generally aligned with other 34 Banking & Finance Stocks in Malaysia (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):

AFFIN (Bursa: 5185), ABMB (Bursa: 2488), ALLIANZ (Bursa: 1163), AMBANK (Bursa: 1015), APEX (Bursa: 5088), BIMB (Bursa: 5258), BURSA (Bursa: 1818), CIMB (Bursa: 1023), ECM (Bursa: 2143), ELKDESA (Bursa: 5228), FINTEC (Bursa: 0150), HLBANK (Bursa: 5819), HLCAP (Bursa: 5274), HLFG (Bursa: 1082), INSAS (Bursa: 3379), JOHAN (Bursa: 3441), KENANGA (Bursa: 6483), KUCHAI (Bursa: 2186), LPI (Bursa: 8621), MAA (Bursa: 1198), MAYBANK (Bursa: 1155), MBSB (Bursa: 1171), MANULFE (Bursa: 1058), MNRB (Bursa: 6459), MPHBCAP (Bursa: 5237), OSKVI (Bursa: 0053), P&O (Bursa: 6009), PBBANK (Bursa: 1295), RCECAP (Bursa: 9296), RHBBANK (Bursa: 1066), TAKAFUL (Bursa: 6139), TA (Bursa: 4898), TUNEPRO (Bursa: 5230).

Major Banks in Malaysia (Public Bank, Maybank, CIMB Bank, RHB Bank, Hong Leong Bank, etc) have suffered triple crisis over the past few years: economy slowdown during COVID-19 pandemic, low bank interest rate and also political instability. This has resulted Public Bank stock prices to fall by nearly 50% over the past few years, a very significant discount.

The uniqueness of Public Bank is relatively lower optimism level (25%) with stronger business fundamental than other Malaysia bank stocks, therefore having more upside potential in medium term when COVID-19 fear is fading with global vaccination and also less CMCO COVID-19 measures in Malaysia, allowing stronger growth in local economy which needs banks services. While waiting for recovery of share prices to fair value, Public Bank stock investors could enjoy bonus with 2% dividend yield, comparable with bank interest rate.

3) US Giant Bank Stock: Wells Fargo Bank (NYSE: WFC)

Wells Fargo Bank is the third largest bank in USA, businesses during pandemic and share prices in short term (V-shape recovery) are generally aligned with hundreds of Banking & Finance Stocks in US, including JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citi Group (NYSE: C), Blackrock (NYSE: BLK), etc.

Major Banks in US have suffered correction in share prices due to US lockdown in Q2/2020 pandemic and fear of COVID-19 pandemic. This has resulted Wells Fargo Bank stock prices to fall over 50% over the past few years, a very significant discount.

The uniqueness of Wells Fargo is lower optimism level (25%) than the peers but this is the result of weaker businesses in the last few quarters of pandemic. Therefore, Wells Fargo is more suitable for crisis investing, having more upside potential in medium term when COVID-19 fear is fading with global vaccination and also more QE (Quantitative Easing) in US after Joe Biden officially becomes US President on 20 Jan 2021, allowing stronger growth in local economy which needs banks services. While waiting for recovery of share prices to fair value, Wells Fargo Bank stock investors could enjoy bonus with 5+% dividend yield, much higher than the Fed ultra-low interest rate of 0-0.25%.

Since Wells Fargo Bank has relatively weaker business fundamental (despite large in business size), diversification is required for crisis investing in this marginal giant bank stock. In fact, there are other much smaller but stronger fundamental bank stocks in US with similar low optimism level as Wells Fargo Bank but much safer for investing in longer term. A smart investor may consider those state (not national) bank giant stocks, having even more upside potential but mostly are undervalue as they are less well known internationally.

4) HK / China Giant Bank Stock: ICBC Bank (HKEX: 1398)

ICBC Bank is the largest bank in China and the world, businesses during pandemic and share prices in short term (V-shape recovery) are generally aligned with other 14 major bank stocks / H-Shares in Hong Kong (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):

Bank of China Hong Kong (HKEX: 2388), Hang Seng Bank (HKEX: 11), China Construction Bank (HKEX: 939), CM Bank (HKEX: 3968), Chong Hing Bank (HKEX: 1111), Bank of East Asia (HKEX: 23), Bank of Communication (HKEX: 3328), Dahsing Banking (HKEX: 2356), ICBC Bank (HKEX: 1398), Citic Bank (HKEX: 998), Bank of China (HKEX: 3988), Minsheng Bank (HKEX: 1988), HSBC Bank (HKEX: 5), Stanchart Bank (HKEX: 2888).

Major Banks in Hong Kong / China have suffered correction in share prices due to US-China trade war, China lockdown in Q1/2020 pandemic and global fear of COVID-19 pandemic. This has resulted ICBC Bank stock prices to fall nearly 50% over the past few years, a very significant discount.

The uniqueness of ICBC is recovering from lower optimism level (39%), more cyclical than the peers in medium term (every few years) with stable business businesses. Therefore, ICBC is more suitable for cyclic investing, having more upside potential in medium term when COVID-19 fear is fading with global vaccination and also less tension in US-China trade war after Joe Biden officially becomes US President on 20 Jan 2021, allowing stronger growth in local economy which needs banks services. While waiting for recovery of share prices to fair value, ICBC Bank stock investors could enjoy bonus with 6% dividend yield, much higher than current very low interest rates in Hong Kong banks.

There are other giant stocks in Hong Kong / China which are stronger and lower optimism than ICBC Bank, despite smaller in size. In fact, the largest local bank in Hong Kong is HSBC Bank but it is a poor bank stock (non-giant stock with weak fundamental). A smart investor would only consider giant bank stocks, not buying any other bank stocks at historical low prices (a common mistake for beginner investors to buy at “cheap” prices without considering the declining value in businesses), having even more upside potential with much lower risk. Risk management with a portfolio of giant stocks is key for crisis investing, so that “Buy Low” would have higher chance of “Sell High” in future.

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Optimism, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Value Investing Tagged: bank stock, crisis stock, cyclic investing stock

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