Market Cycle Investing Archives - Page 2 of 10

4 Singapore Defensive Dividend Stocks and REITs (稳如泰山)

Posted on August 12, 2022 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In this Dr Tee 1hr video education (4 Singapore Defensive Dividend Stocks and REITs), you will learn:
1) Formation of Defensive Stock Portfolio

2) Singapore Stock Market Outlook
– Short term, medium term & long term

3) Singapore Dividend ETFs
– Singapore Index Fund: STI ETF (SGX: ES3 & G3B)
– Singapore REIT Fund: CSOP Singapore REITs ETF (SGX: SRT)

4) 4 Singapore Defensive Dividend Stocks and REITs:
– CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust / CICT (SGX: C38U)
– Mapletree Industrial Trust / MIT (SGX: ME8U)
– OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)
– Challenger Technologies (SGX: 573)

5) Defensive Investing Strategies with Low Optimism Giant Stocks
– Kiasu Personality (Average Down)
– Kiasi Personality (Average Up)

6) Bonus / Q&A
– Hong Kong Hang Seng Index vs China A50 / CSI 300 Index
– Bottom Fishing of Giant Stocks with Falling of Inflation from the Peak
– Impact of Interest Rate Hike on Bank Stocks

Here is Dr Tee Free 1-hr Video Course. Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks.

Dr Tee Video Course: https://youtu.be/szvE8t_rqs8

Past readers could have profited with over 50% rally in share price if have taken actions during pandemic on similar giant stocks at low optimism level. No one could change the past but you could still change the future if taking action to learn now!

Investing with 30 STI Index Stocks (including 3 dividend giant stocks of CICT, MIT and OCBC) is a defensive strategy, indirectly diversifying the risks among 30 large size businesses in Singapore.

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There are over 2000 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar, you could ask on any global and local stocks including but not limited to 30 STI component stocks:

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

View quick preview video below, Dr Tee will introduce 10 key stock investment strategies (股票投资十招) to be learned in 4hr free stock webinar:

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

4 Defensive Undervalue-Dividend-Stocks of Singapore and Hong Kong against Black Swans

Posted on July 6, 2022 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In this Dr Tee 2hr video education (4 Defensive Undervalue Dividend Stocks), you will learn:
1) Interactive Impacts of 5 Potential Black Swans
– COVID19, High Inflation, Interest Rate Hike, Supply Chain Disruption, Russia-Ukraine War

2) Singapore and Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook
– Short term, medium term & long term

3) 4 Singapore and Hong Kong Defensive-Undervalue-Dividend Stocks:
– Singapore Index Fund: STI ETF (SGX: ES3 & G3B)
– Hong Kong Index Fund: HSI ETF (HKEX: 2800 & 2833)
– Singapore Property Giant Stock: Hongkong Land (SGX: H78)
– Hong Kong Giant Reit: Link Reit (HKEX: 0823)

4) Defensive Investing Strategies with Low Optimism Giant Stocks
– Kiasu Personality (Average Down)
– Kiasi Personality (Average Up)

5) Bonus / Q&A
– Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07)
– Alibaba (HKEX: 9988 / NYSE: Baba)
– Impact of interest rates (HDB / Banks) on Property Market

Here is Dr Tee Free 2-hr Video Course. Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks.

Dr Tee Video Course: https://youtu.be/U2JPD68YR94

Past readers could have profited with over 50% rally in share price if have taken actions during pandemic on similar giant stocks at low optimism level. No one could change the past but you could still change the future if taking action to learn now!

Investing with 30 STI Index Stocks (including Hongkong Land) is a defensive strategy, indirectly diversifying the risks among 30 large size businesses in Singapore.

Similarly, investing with 66 HSI Index Stocks (including Link Reit) is a defensive strategy (with additional protection of low optimism Hang Seng Index, leveraging on pandemic recovery and stimulus plans in China), indirectly diversifying the risks among 66 large size businesses in China / Hong Kong:

CKH HOLDINGS (HKEX: 1), CLP HOLDINGS (HKEX: 2), HK & CHINA GAS (HKEX: 3), HSBC HOLDINGS (HKEX: 5), POWER ASSETS (HKEX: 6), HANG SENG BANK (HKEX: 11), HENDERSON LAND (HKEX: 12), SHK PPT (HKEX: 16), NEW WORLD DEV (HKEX: 17), GALAXY ENT (HKEX: 27), MTR CORPORATION (HKEX: 66), HANG LUNG PPT (HKEX: 101), GEELY AUTO (HKEX: 175), ALI HEALTH (HKEX: 241), CITIC (HKEX: 267), WH GROUP (HKEX: 288), CHINA RES BEER (HKEX: 291), OOIL (HKEX: 316), SINOPEC CORP (HKEX: 386), HKEX (HKEX: 388), TECHTRONIC IND (HKEX: 669), CHINA OVERSEAS (HKEX: 688), TENCENT (HKEX: 700), CHINA UNICOM (HKEX: 762), LINK REIT (HKEX: 823), PETROCHINA (HKEX: 857), XINYI GLASS (HKEX: 868), ZHONGSHENG HLDG (HKEX: 881), CNOOC (HKEX: 883), CCB (HKEX: 939), CHINA MOBILE (HKEX: 941), LONGFOR GROUP (HKEX: 960), XINYI SOLAR (HKEX: 968), SMIC (HKEX: 981), LENOVO GROUP (HKEX: 992), CKI HOLDINGS (HKEX: 1038), HENGAN INT’L (HKEX: 1044), CSPC PHARMA (HKEX: 1093), CHINA RES LAND (HKEX: 1109), CK ASSET (HKEX: 1113), SINO BIOPHARM (HKEX: 1177), BYD COMPANY (HKEX: 1211), AIA (HKEX: 1299), CHINAHONGQIAO (HKEX: 1378), ICBC (HKEX: 1398), XIAOMI – W (HKEX: 1810), BUD APAC (HKEX: 1876), SANDS CHINA LTD (HKEX: 1928), WHARF REIC (HKEX: 1997), COUNTRY GARDEN (HKEX: 2007), ANTA SPORTS (HKEX: 2020), WUXI BIO (HKEX: 2269), SHENZHOU INTL (HKEX: 2313), PING AN (HKEX: 2318), MENGNIU DAIRY (HKEX: 2319), LI NING (HKEX: 2331), SUNNY OPTICAL (HKEX: 2382), BOC HONG KONG (HKEX: 2388), CHINA LIFE (HKEX: 2628), ENN ENERGY (HKEX: 2688), MEITUAN – W (HKEX: 3690), CM BANK (HKEX: 3968), BANK OF CHINA (HKEX: 3988), CG SERVICES (HKEX: 6098), HAIDILAO (HKEX: 6862), JD – SW (HKEX: 9618), NONGFU SPRING (HKEX: 9633), BABA – SW (HKEX: 9988), NTES – S (HKEX: 9999).

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: defensive stock, dividend stock, Hong Kong Market, reit, undervalue stock

5 Stock Actions for 5 Black Swans (五内如焚)

Posted on June 13, 2022 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Over the past 2 years of pandemic, global stock markets have been experiencing roller-coaster rides, down and up and down … mainly due to these 5 black swans with high uncertainties in cyclic manner:

1) COVID19 Pandemic

2) Supply Chain Disruption

3) Interest Rate

4) Inflation

5) Russian-Ukraine War

Global stock markets experienced mini dotcom bubble with over 30%-50% major correction in technology stocks, especially in US Nasdaq and Hong Kong. Both long term investors and short term traders are worried of high inflation over 8%, interest rate hike (may exceed 3% in 1 year), Russia-Ukraine War (higher commodity prices), supply chain disruptions and endless COVID19 cases (over 2 years) which contribute to declining stock prices. These 5 black swans (五内如焚) may spread the fears in technology stocks to most sectors, resulting in a global financial crisis.

Instead of worrying about uncertain markets, a smart investor may consider strong dividend giant stocks with protection by defensive sector business, a natural way to hedge against high inflation with interest rate hike while collecting growing passive incomes in a steady way. A wise trader would make friend with price trend, waiting for uptrend to reenter again (avoiding Buy Low get Lower). It is possible to integrate long term investing with short term trading to enjoy the best of 2 worlds.

Crisis could be Opportunities if an investor or trader knows how to take 1 of 5 critical actions (Buy / Hold / Sell / Wait / Shorting) aligning to own personality. Let’s learn further from Dr Tee on how to take action in current stock markets with 5 black swans:

1) Buy

With over 90% global stocks (especially in US & Hong Kong) turned bearish, “Buy” action for investors could be more suitable for defensive dividend giant stocks, taking calculated risks of limited downside, no need to time the market. A trader may still consider strong individual stocks from bullish sectors such as utilities, commodities, energy, etc, which still have potential to rise.

Most people wish to Buy Low Sell High but usually ending up do nothing when market is falling (fear of falling knife) and rising again (fear of “expensive” stocks).

Supply chain disruptions during pandemic becomes worse, especially for commodities (eg. agricultural products, crude oil and natural gas) during Russia-Ukraine War which is highly complicated (political, financial, humanistic, etc). While commodity stocks still enjoy higher profits in near future, it is more suitable for shorter term traders as Ein55 Optimism level of commodity stocks are generally higher, may not be suitable for long term investing.

2) Hold

A short term trader may have sold the stocks when stock markets start to turn bearish a few months ago but a long term investor may have option to hold on to certain stocks with condition that it is a giant with strong and defensive businesses.

During interest rate hike (to tame the high inflations), global bank stocks would have higher interest income due to higher Net Interest Margin (NIM). However, banks profits could be reduced if the stock correction ends up as a global financial crisis (eg. stagflation or hyper-inflation over 10%), there could be less borrowing of money by corporate. At the same time, non-interest income (eg. investment funds, insurance, credit card, etc) is highly dependent on economy condition.

The Fed of US is taking the lead to increase interest rate (from 1%) which is an art to control the high inflation (over 8%) with amount of adjustment. If the interest rate is increased too fast (eg. over 1% each time), investors may become fearful, resulting in bearish stock market which could limit hiring and expansion of business, ending as global financial crisis eventually. If the interest rate is increased too slow (eg. minimal 0.25% each time), it could not bring down the high inflation (already last 40 years high). The Fed could only do micro adjustment every few months (6 times each year) while giving “assurance” with more positive comments to cool down the inflation without spreading the fear too much.

Singapore stock market performs better than US stock market so far in Year 2022, mainly due to there are more banking and finance stocks (over 30%) than technology stock (only 1, Venture Corp) in 30 STI component stocks:

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Singapore Exchange (SGX) (SGX: S68), Singapore Airlines (SIA) (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singtel (SGX: Z74), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) (SGX: BS6).

Similarly, there are more value stocks in Malaysia 30 KLCI index component stocks:

CIMB (Bursa: 1023) CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BERHAD, DIALOG (Bursa: 7277) DIALOG GROUP BERHAD, DIGI (Bursa: 6947) DIGI.COM BERHAD, GENM (Bursa: 4715) GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD, GENTING (Bursa: 3182) GENTING BERHAD, HAPSENG (Bursa: 3034) HAP SENG CONSOLIDATED BERHAD, HARTA (Bursa: 5168) HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BERHAD, HLBANK (Bursa: 5819) HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD, HLFG (Bursa: 1082) HONG LEONG FINANCIAL GROUP BERHAD, IHH (Bursa: 5225) IHH HEALTHCARE BERHAD, IOICORP (1961) IOI CORPORATION BERHAD, KLCC (Bursa: 5235SS) KLCC PROPERTY HOLDINGS BERHAD, KLK (Bursa: 2445) KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BERHAD, MAXIS (Bursa: 6012) MAXIS BERHAD, MAYBANK (Bursa: 1155) MALAYAN BANKING BERHAD, MISC (Bursa: 3816) MISC BERHAD, NESTLE (Bursa: 4707) NESTLE MALAYSIA BERHAD, PBBANK (Bursa: 1295) PUBLIC BANK BERHAD, PCHEM (Bursa: 5183) PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BERHAD, PETDAG (Bursa: 5681) PETRONAS DAGANGAN BHD, PETGAS (Bursa: 6033) PETRONAS GAS BERHAD, PMETAL (Bursa: 8869) PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDINGS BERHAD, PPB (Bursa: 4065) PPB GROUP BERHAD, RHBBANK (Bursa: 1066) RHB BANK BERHAD, SIME (Bursa: 4197) SIME DARBY BERHAD, SIMEPLT (Bursa: 5285) SIME DARBY PLANTATION BERHAD, TENAGA (Bursa: 5347) TENAGA NASIONAL BHD, TM (Bursa: 4863) TELEKOM MALAYSIA BERHAD, TOPGLOV (Bursa: 7113) TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.

3) Sell

Some investors may feel that it is too late to sell stocks after over 30% – 50% correction in stocks, especially in technology sector. In fact, short term traders and long term investors have different risk tolerance levels, criteria to sell could be different as well. For traders, it is important to follow a consistent trading system to buy and sell (eg. every few weeks or months), mainly based on Technical Analysis with trend-following. For investors, more considerations on longer term stock performance including business conditions (not just based on stock prices), selling of stocks is an option, not a must.

Some investors may also worry after selling a stock (especially a giant stock), hard to buy back again at the same prices, therefore prefer to hold. If an investor could integrate trading mindset into investing, even if the current bearish stock market is only a major correction (eg. rebound when high inflation is tamed), it is never too late to buy back the same stocks (or stronger stocks) at the same selling price or even higher price (difference of selling and buying price is a premium of insurance to ensure a more bullish market).

Sell a stock (whether to take profits or minimizing losses) is not a mistake, even the stock may recover higher eventually. When business or fundamental analysis is core (value investing), stock price analysis (allowing Buy Low or Sell High) would help to enhance the probability of success with higher potential return. Partial consideration of only fundamental or technical is incomplete, there could be market traps in each method.

4) Wait

For investors or traders with no stock currently, some may want to wait for opportunities to buy low. Cash is king only when used at the right time in investment one day. Cash deposit in banks forever could be wasted if too much cash (beyond emergency fund for family) with little return (current bank interest rate is still far below inflation, therefore cash is shrinking in value with time).

For investors who could not any take action in stocks due to low risk tolerance level, may consider to invest in bank stocks (eg. getting 1% interest from cash deposit in OCBC vs over 4% dividend in OCBC stock), risk as stock investors could be lower (especially for lower price-to-book ratio stock) than cash depositor ($75k compensation if a Singapore bank go bankrupt).

“Wait” is an important action but window of opportunity may be widely opened while market is still chaotic or full with negative comments. It is easy to say “Be greedy when others are fearful” but it is possible to Buy Low get Lower as it is almost impossible to buy at the lowest point (similarly to sell at the highest point).

So, probability investing (eg. LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) is a solution, taking action (from Wait to Buy) when signal has appeared for own personality. As of now, mini bear (over 20% correction in indices) is confirmed but big bear (over 50% price correction) is still uncertain.

Waiting is meaningful only if an investor or trader could take action at certain point of time to buy stock again (eg. a portfolio of 10-20 giant stocks with strong businesses and recovery in share prices).

5) Shorting

“Shorting” is a higher probability of action in a bearish stock market with over 90% stocks correcting to lower prices, profiting from lower prices. However, it is more suitable for shorter trading and S.E.T. (Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices) plan is required for trading because shorting could have infinite loss when a trader short sell a stock with rising price (sky is the limit for upward potential, eg. Tesla or iFAST have over 10X in share prices over the past few years).

Shorting may be conducted with CFD (Contract for Difference) platform but only selected stocks are available (many weak fundamental stocks may not be available in CFD). CFD may not be suitable for beginners, especially those who don’t have a trading plan. Alternatively, an investor may considered inversed ETF (higher prices or more profits when actual index is falling) which could be traded under most stock exchanges.

Shorting is mainly reversed strategy (aiming for lower prices) of usual long strategy (aiming for higher prices), riding the bearish share prices, breaking each critical support to start the shorting. It may be against the personalities of some investors, therefore it is possible to “Wait”, no need to “Short” during a bear market.

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While 5 black swans above could be uncertain in nature (therefore it is called “black” swan) but they are actually secondary factors. The primary factors of stock market prices up and down are actually Greed and Fear, which could be reflected under LOFTP (Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal). Despite we could not have a crystal ball to see the future stock market, probability investing aligning to own personality would enhance the winning chances.

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: black swan, crisis stock investing, High Dividend Investing

76 Singapore Commodity and Malaysia Plantation Stocks (天时地利)

Posted on March 31, 2022 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Supply chain disruptions during pandemic has resulted in surging commodity prices (eg. palm oil and other agricultural products, crude oil, metals, etc). The situation becomes worst with recent Russia-Ukraine war, global inflations would be higher in near term, pushing commodity market to even higher optimism.

Instead of worrying about uncertain markets, a smart investor may consider strong commodity giant stocks with protection by rising commodity sector business, a natural way to hedge against high inflation with interest rate hike.

In this article, you will learn from Dr Tee on 76 Singapore Commodity and Malaysia Plantation Stocks to profit in current stock market, some may be considered for longer term investing and / or short term trading with COVID-19 recovery stock rally and high inflations. Bonus for readers who could read every word of the entire article, learning unique strategy to position in 6 Singapore and Malaysia commodity / plantation (mainly palm oil) giant stocks for both passive incomes (dividend) and capital gains with potential share price appreciation. Both Ein55 Optimism levels and intrinsic values will be shared for each giant stock:

3 Singapore Giant Commodity Stocks:

– Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Golden Agri Resources (SGX: E5H), First Resources (SGX: EB5)

3 Malaysia Giant Plantation Stocks:

– United Plantations (Bursa: 2089), Genting Plantations (Bursa: 2291), Kim Loong Resources (Bursa: 5027)

These stocks have plantations and processing factories mainly on palm oil and some also on other agricultural products (eg. sugar, wheat, seeds, etc). Singapore and Malaysia has the most number of palm oil giant stocks in the world with plantations mainly based in Malaysia and Indonesia.

The best time to invest in 35 Singapore commodity stocks and 41 Malaysia plantation stocks (total 76 stocks) is always during global stock crisis (eg. Year 2020-2021 during pandemic, 2008—2009 during subprime crisis, etc), not only able to maximize the dividend yield (due to lower entry share price), also could have higher potential of capital gains (when market cycle moves from fear in low optimism to greed in high optimism). Commodity stock investing is not based on stock strategy (Buy Low Sell High) alone, may be integrated with dividend investing, growth investing, swing trading, momentum trading, cyclic investing, defensive investing and other Ein55 strategies.

More importantly, commodity stock investing has to be integrated with commodity market itself, eg, riding the uptrend of commodity prices. Since palm oil prices are at very high Ein55 Optimism over 75% (very bullish), most palm oil giant stocks are more suitable for short term to medium term trading, while a few could still be considered for longer term investing. So, alignment with short term prices by Technical Analysis is helpful (eg. ensure higher high and high low in share prices).

There are 76 Singapore commodity stocks and Malaysia plantation stocks (not all are giant stocks with Dr Tee criteria), based on the last price traded (30 Mar 2022), sorted by 3 key Fundamental Criteria:
1) ROE (a criteria for growth stocks, eg. ROE > 5%),
2) Dividend Yield, DY (a criteria for dividend stocks, eg. DY > 3%),
3) Price-to-Book (PB) ratio, Price/NAV (a criteria for undervalue stocks, eg. PB < 1).

From the table sorted below, 50% (38/76 stocks) are undervalue (Price to Book ratio, PB < 1), mainly due to COVID-19 stock crisis, affecting commodity business with bearish share prices a few years ago but trend is reversed currently with bullish commodity market. There are 64% (49/76 stocks) have growing businesses (over 5% ROE, Return on Equity) with rising commodity prices while only 18% (14/76 stocks) were making losses during pandemic in Year 2021. There are nearly 50% (37/76 stocks) were paying dividend but only 20 stocks (26%) having dividend yield over 3%, potential for dividend investing (higher dividend yield may not be better).

No	76 SG+MY Commodity Stocks	ROE (%)	PB	DY (%)
1	Asia Enterprises (SGX: A55)	3.9	0.6	5.1
2	AsiaPhos (SGX: 5WV)	-8332.5	11.3	–
3	Bumitama Agri (SGX: P8Z)	16.7	1.4	3.2
4	China Mining (SGX: BHD)	27.3	0.5	–
5	CNMC Goldmine (SGX: 5TP)	4.2	1.7	0.9
6	Cosmo Steel (SGX: B9S)	2.9	0.6	3.2
7	Don Agro (SGX: GRQ)	15.3	0.6	3.2
8	First Resources (SGX: EB5)	13.5	2.0	3.1
9	Fortress Minerals (SGX: OAJ)	37.7	3.0	2.2
10	Geo Energy Resources (SGX: RE4)	51.2	1.4	19.0
11	Global Palm Resources (SGX: BLW)	9.3	0.7	7.9
12	Golden Agri-Resources (SGX: E5H)	10.2	0.6	5.3
13	Golden Energy (SGX: AUE)	23.5	1.8	–
14	Halcyon Agri (SGX: 5VJ)	0.6	0.6	–
15	HG Metal (SGX: BTG)	10.9	0.5	9.7
16	Indofood Agri (SGX: 5JS)	6.5	0.5	2.0
17	Intraco (SGX: I06)	-1.6	0.7	–
18	Jawala (SGX: 1J7)	14.2	1.1	2.7
19	Kencana Agri (SGX: BNE)	54.6	1.5	–
20	Mewah Intl (SGX: MV4)	11.8	0.7	2.5
21	MSC (SGX: NPW)	20.3	3.1	1.6
22	Nam Lee Metal (SGX: G0I)	9.9	0.6	4.2
23	NSL (SGX: N02)	1.0	0.7	5.6
24	Resources Global (SGX: QSD)	40.0	1.0	2.5
25	Samko Timber (SGX: E6R)	-23.9	12.2	–
26	Shen Yao (SGX: A78)	-42.9	1.4	–
27	Soon Lian (SGX: 5MD)	17.0	0.5	1.7
28	Southern Alliance (SGX: QNS)	40.4	2.9	2.3
29	Sri Trang Agro (SGX: NC2)	34.0	0.9	15.8
30	Union Gas (SGX: 1F2)	26.6	4.3	2.4
31	Union Steel (SGX: BLA)	12.4	0.4	6.0
32	USP Group (SGX: BRS)	-5.7	0.2	–
33	VCPlus (SGX: 43E)	-44.2	15.0	–
34	Wilmar International (SGX: F34)	9.5	1.1	3.3
35	Wilton Resources (SGX: 5F7)	6.2	1.9	–
36	AASIA (Bursa: 7054)	-3.4	0.4	–
37	BKAWAN (Bursa: 1899)	18.1	1.6	4.2
38	BLDPLNT (Bursa: 5069)	10.3	1.3	0.3
39	BPLANT (Bursa: 5254)	8.9	0.8	–
40	CEPAT (Bursa: 8982)	13.4	0.8	–
41	CHINTEK (Bursa: 1929)	9.3	1.0	3.8
42	DUTALND (Bursa: 3948)	1.1	0.2	2.9
43	FAREAST (Bursa: 5029)	13.1	1.7	–
44	FGV (Bursa: 5222)	21.5	1.3	–
45	Genting Plantations (GENP) (Bursa: 2291)	8.4	1.5	–
46	GLBHD (Bursa: 7382)	-4.9	0.3	–
47	GOPENG (Bursa: 2135)	-0.9	0.6	–
48	HARNLEN (Bursa: 7501)	-7.1	0.6	–
49	HSPLANT (Bursa: 5138)	11.9	1.1	6.7
50	INCKEN (Bursa: 2607)	-2.0	0.3	–
51	INNO (Bursa: 6262)	26.8	2.6	–
52	IOICORP (Bursa: 1961)	13.9	2.5	2.6
53	JTIASA (Bursa: 4383)	2.8	0.8	–
54	Kim Loong Resources (KMLOONG) (Bursa: 5027)	12.7	2.3	3.5
55	KLK (Bursa: 2445)	19.0	2.2	4.0
56	KLUANG (Bursa: 2453)	4.6	0.4	0.8
57	MALPAC (Bursa: 4936)	4.3	0.5	–
58	MATANG (Bursa: 0189)	1.8	0.8	2.2
59	MHC (Bursa: 5026)	14.7	0.8	–
60	NPC (Bursa: 5047)	2.1	0.4	–
61	NSOP (Bursa: 2038)	4.3	0.5	–
62	PINEPAC (Bursa: 1902)	-5.0	0.3	–
63	PLS (Bursa: 9695)	5.1	1.4	–
64	RSAWIT (Bursa: 5113)	-1.9	1.3	–
65	RVIEW (Bursa: 2542)	6.0	0.6	–
66	SBAGAN (Bursa: 2569)	7.2	0.3	2.2
67	SHCHAN (Bursa: 4316)	38.0	0.5	–
68	SIMEPLT (Bursa: 5285)	14.9	2.3	–
69	SOP (Bursa: 5126)	18.2	1.1	–
70	SWKPLNT (Bursa: 5135)	19.0	1.1	–
71	TAANN (Bursa: 5012)	17.8	1.4	–
72	TDM (Bursa: 2054)	-4.4	0.7	–
73	THPLANT (Bursa: 5112)	10.8	1.2	–
74	TSH (Bursa: 9059)	10.3	1.4	–
75	UMCCA (Bursa: 2593)	1.0	0.8	1.8
76	United Plantations (UTDPLT) (Bursa: 2089)	19.4	2.3	6.3

However, not all the 76 Singapore Commodity and Malaysia Plantation stocks listed are giant stocks. A growing business in the past may not be sustainable during COVID-19 period and an undervalue stock may remain lagging in share prices for many years, could end up as a crisis stock. Fundamental Analysis alone is not sufficient, a low PB or low PE or high dividend yield stock may be a value trap as this may be the result of lower share price with weakening businesses. Therefore, deeper analysis is required with LOFTP (Level, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical, Personal Analysis) Strategies.

Let’s learn these 6 commodity and plantation giant stocks (mainly related to palm oil) in Singapore and Malaysia, understanding the business nature, investment clock and unique strategy.

1) Singapore Commodity Giant Stock – Wilmar International (SGX: F34)

Among the 6 giant stocks studied, Wilmar has the largest market cap (about 10 times more relative to others), also the 6^th largest stock in 30 STI component stocks. A giant is not defined by the size, even small cap stock could be a giant stock based on Dr Tee criteria.

The IPO of Wilmar subsidiaries in China and India help Wilmar to grow its market value further. Major shareholder is PPB Group (Bursa: 4065), Perlis Plantations Berhad, controlled by Kuok Family (led by Robert Kuok, the richest person in Malaysia). This is additional bonus with such a strong sponsor.

Wilmar has stronger business, mainly supported by higher commodity prices (eg. palm oil and sugar, etc). However, due to too bullish palm oil prices, when high inflation is tamed in future, it may affect its cyclic stock prices. Therefore, currently Wilmar (as well as other 5 giant stocks studied) is more suitable for short to medium term trading until the commodity market falling down from high optimism one day (likely triggered by another Black Swan).

Wilmar is still at moderate low Ein55 Optimism (<50%) but recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $6/share (about 30% potential upside in medium term). The stock is well balanced, suitable for growth investing (Buy & Hold), cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High) or even dividend investing (about 3% dividend yield).

2) Singapore Commodity Giant Stock – Golden Agri Resources (SGX: E5H)

Golden Agri Resources is a very cyclic stock, share prices has been bearish over the past 10 years (2010-2020, suitable for shorting then), incurring big loss for long term investors. The business is also more cyclic in nature, currently having upside potential with rising palm oil prces.

Crisis (eg. lower share prices) is an opportunity only for a giant stock. Despite Golden Agri does not have very strong business, its foundation is good, able to recover in share prices after 10 years of “winter” for business and stock prices.

Golden Agri is still at moderate low Ein55 Optimism (about 30%) but recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $0.60/share (about 2X potential upside but at the price of relatively higher risk). The stock is more suitable for cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High), aligning with palm oil optimism until the bull market has ended.

3) Singapore Commodity Giant Stock – First Resources (SGX: EB5)

First Resources is relatively smaller stock but it is also a giant stock, more suitable for shorter term trading as Ein55 Optimism is at fair price (about 50%). The share price is recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for short term trading.

The stock is more suitable for swing trading (Buy Low Sell High in weeks or months) or momentum trading (Buy High Sell Higher with price breakout), aligning with palm oil optimism until the bull market has ended. Alignment with short term prices by Technical Analysis is helpful (eg. ensure higher high and high low in share prices).

4) Malaysia Plantation Giant Stock – United Plantations (Bursa: 2089)

United Plantations is a rare giant stock suitable for long term investing (having over 100 years of history with Danish management for several generations in Malaysia). The parent company (UIE) is listed in Denmark, the close connection with Europe market also helps in its business positioning, especially with tighter Europe regulations for palm oil products.

United Plantations has relatively stronger and more defensive business than other peers in the same sector. Therefore, it is one of the few giant commodity stocks which may be considered for long term investing, in addition to short term trading, despite operating under a cyclic commodity market.

United Plantations is at low Ein55 Optimism (<25%) but recovering steadily from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of over $20/share (about 40% potential upside). The stock is more suitable for mudium to long term investing (Buy Low Sell High), entry with consideration of short term trading is helpful to avoid price correction.

5) Malaysia Plantation Giant Stock – Genting Plantations (Bursa: 2291)

Genting Plantation is under Genting Berhad (Bursa: 3182), a giant group under severe crisis during pandemic (casino, cruise, hotel, plantations, etc). However, the strong foundation of parent company has helped to support subsidiaries (except for Genting Hong Kong with cruise business).

As a result, Genting Plantations is suitable for Crisis Investing to Buy Low Sell High, leveraging on very low prices with calculated risks. This is comparable with stock investing in Golden Agri, higher risk for higher gains (Genting Plantations is stronger than Golden Agri for relative business comparison).

Genting Plantations is still at low Ein55 Optimism (<25%) but recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for Ein55 intrinsic value of about $17/share (about 2X potential upside but at the price of relatively higher risk). The stock is more suitable for cyclic investing (Buy Low Sell High), aligning with palm oil optimism until the bull market has ended.

6) Malaysia Plantation Giant Stock – Kim Loong Resources (Bursa: 5027)

Kim Loong Resources has strong business performance, comparable with United Plantations. It is smaller in size but a strong giant stock internally. However, due to relatively higher optimism than United Plantations, Kim Loong is more suitable for short trading or medium term investing.

Kim Loong Resources is at moderate high Ein55 Optimism (>50%, exceeding Ein55 intrinsic value). The share price is recovering well from low in pandemic, aiming for short term trading.

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Cycle Investing, Market Optimism, Stock Market Tagged: commodity, crisis stock investing, Malaysia Stocks

Stock Market Sentiment Investing Strategy with Fear and Greed of Black Swans (多数服从少数)

Posted on March 18, 2022 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Global investors and traders are worrying about the current stock market fears which may become the next Black Swan: Russia / Ukraine war, high inflation and interest rate hike, resulting in the largest dip in US stock market (13% for S&P500, 20% for NASDAQ) since COVID19 crisis. At the same time, China and Hong Kong suffer severe waves of COVID19, resulting in significant stock market correction, especially for technology stocks (eg. ATM stocks of Alibaba, Tencent and Meituan which contribute to 1/3 of Hang Seng Index). However, at the most fearful time, there is always a strong rebound in stock prices. Is it time to Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait or Shorting?

Before sharing any personal views on current stock market, Dr Tee often likes to begin with a unique “Stock Market Sentiment” Strategy with a survey for my investing workshop audience or readers:

“What do you think of the Singapore stock market trend for the next 1 year?”
A = Bear Market (STI < 10%) B = Flat Market (STI within +/- 10%) C = Bull Market (STI > 10%)

Please make your choice before continue reading further. This is an important move because you will be part of “Dr Tee Indicator” on future market trend.

The participants with diversified background and experience representing the mass market will cast their votes. Here is the latest statistics (see Figure above) based on recent survey: Bear Market (6%), Flat Market (40%), Bull Market (54%). Please compare your choice with this overall distribution on market outlook.

This unique Dr Tee Personal Indicator is making use of the psychological weaknesses in traders/investors who usually buy high (when greedy) and sell low (when fearful). Therefore, the recommendation of investing calls of buy / sell / hold, is against the mainstream view:
• Buy: when bear market view > 75%
• Sell: when bull market view > 75%
• Hold: when flat market view > 25% (current market)

The current majority market view (40% flat market & 54% bull market) aligns well with the current market trend in Singapore as Straits Times Index (STI) has been recovering gradually from low of 2233 points during COVID-19 pandemic, trading at fair price of 3337 points with uptrend potential with support of growing economy. The bearish view is relatively low (6%, less than 50% neutral line), matching the declining fear during Covid-19 stock crisis with recovery of Singapore and Asian stock markets.

This Ein55 Personal Indicator has monitored the stock market regularly since Nov 2011, successfully predicting a golden entry point to stock market after the US credit crisis in late 2011 with >75% bearish views. Unfortunately, during the next worst time of Mar 2020 pandemic, Dr Tee could not meet up with audience, therefore missing another pessimistic point (>75% bearish views) in this survey but investors won’t miss the investing opportunity with Optimism Strategy (1 of Dr Tee 55 investing styles). This unique investing methodology is consistent with the famous saying by Warren Buffett: “Be greedy when others are fearful. Be fearful when others are greedy”, but in a measurable form of investors emotions.

Response from each stock market (eg. Singapore, US, Hong Kong / China, Malaysia, etc) could be different as it greed and fear could be country or even sector (eg. technology vs value stocks) dependent as their Ein55 Optimism levels are different. If similar survey is conducted in Hong Kong recently, over 75% local investors or traders likely will have bearish views. However, no one could buy at the lowest point (if yes, then it is luck), therefore trend analysis on reversal pattern is required before Buy Low.

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Market Optimism, Market Outlook, Stock Market, Uncategorized Tagged: global financial crisis, market cycle investing, market outlook

6 Singapore Banking and Finance Giant Stocks under Potential Black Swan (因祸得福)

Posted on February 24, 2022 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Are you worrying about the current stock market fears which may become the next Black Swan: Russia / Ukraine war, high inflation and interest rate hike, resulting in significant market correction? Is it time to Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait or Shorting?

In this Dr Tee 1.5hr video education (6 Giant Singapore Banking & Finance Stocks under Potential Black Swan), you will learn:
1) Impact of Political Economy and Business on Stocks
– Russia / Ukraine War
– High Inflation & Interest Rates Hike
– Recent Final Financial Reports of Case Studies

2) Singapore Stock Market Outlook
– Short term, medium term & long term

3) 6 Giant Singapore Banking & Finance Stocks
– SG Giant Bank Stock: DBS Bank (SGX: D05)
– SG Giant Bank Stock: OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)
– SG Giant Bank Stock: UOB Bank (SGX: U11)
– SG Giant Insurance Stock: UOI – United Overseas Insurance (SGX: U13)
– SG Giant Insurance Stock: Great Eastern (SGX: G07)
– SG Giant Financial Stock: Singapore Exchange – SGX (SGX: S68)

4) Long Term / Mid Term Investing vs Short Term Trading with 3 Strategies
– Optimism Analysis (Cyclic Investing)
– Fundamental Analysis (Value Investing)
– Technical Analysis (Trend-following Trading)

Here is English Version of Dr Tee Video Course (Chinese version is also available as Dr Tee is bilingual). Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks.

English Video:

你害怕目前潜在的股票市场黑天鹅 (俄罗斯与乌克兰战争、高通膨、加息) 吗？应该买、卖、持有、等待、还是卖空？

在这Dr Tee 1小时教育视频（6只新加坡金融牛股在黑天鹅阴影），您可学习：
1）政治经济影响股市
– 俄罗斯与乌克兰战争
– 高通膨、加息
– 最新财表

2）新加坡股市展望

3） 6只新加坡金融强股
– 新加坡银行巨股: 星展银行 DBS Bank (SGX: D05)
– 新加坡银行巨股: 华侨银行 OCBC Bank (SGX: O39)
– 新加坡银行巨股: 大华银行 UOB Bank (SGX: U11)
– 新加坡保险巨股: 大华保险 UOI – United Overseas Insurance (SGX: U13)
– 新加坡保险巨股: 大东方控股 Great Eastern (SGX: G07)
– 新加坡金融巨股: 新加坡交易所 Singapore Exchange – SGX (SGX: S68)

4）长中期投资与短期交易三招
– 乐观指数分析 (周期投资)
– 基础分析 (价值投资)
– 技术分析 (趋势交易)

这儿是 Dr Tee 华语视频（英语视频也已完成，Dr Tee 双语皆行）。请欣赏鄙作，留言求进步。您可订阅 Dr Tee Youtube 频道(Ein Tee)，链接未来投资视频。

Chinese Video (华语视频):

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Cycle Investing, Market Optimism, Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: bank stock, economy vs stock, global financial crisis, value investing

4 Undervalue-Growth-Dividend Giant Stocks in Singapore and US (股海四宝)

Posted on December 15, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

It may be a dream for an investor to find an all-rounded stock with strong business fundamental and growing share prices with regular dividends as passive income (monthly / quarterly / half-yearly) for long term investing or short term trading. In this Dr Tee 2hr video education (4 Undervalue + Growth + Dividend Giant Stocks in Singapore and US), you will learn:

1) US and Singapore Stock Market Outlook
– Short term, medium term & long term

2) LOFTP Investing Strategies for Growth Investing and Momentum Trading
– Level Analysis (L1 Stock, L1 Sector, L3 Country, L4 World)
– Optimism Analysis (0-100%)
– Fundamental Analysis (Strong / Weak)
– Technical Analysis (Follow-trend / Counter-trend)
– Personal Analysis (Short Term Trading / Long Term Investing)

3) 4 US & Singapore Giant Stocks from 4 Promising Sectors with 3-in-1 strategies (Growth + Dividend + Undervalue)
– Singapore Giant Property Stock: Hongkong Land (SGX: H78)
– Singapore Giant F&B Stock: Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92)
– US Giant Oil & Gas Stock: Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP) – quarterly dividend payment
– US Giant REIT Stock: Realty Income (NYSE: O) – monthly dividend payment!

4) Long Term Growth Investing vs Short Term Trading Strategies
– Growth Investing (Buy Low & Hold, Long Term)
– Dividend Investing (Buy Low & Hold, Long Term)
– Undervalue / Cyclic Investing (Buy Low Sell High, Long Term)
– Short Term Trading (Buy Low Sell High, Buy High Sell Higher, Short Term)

5) Bonus: Discussions on 5 stocks during Q&A (only for those who view entire 2hr video)
– US Technology Stock: Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ: ZM)
– Malaysia / Singapore Glove Stock: Top Glove (SGX: BVA / Bursa: 7113)
– Singapore Insurance Stock: Great Eastern (SGX: G07)
– Singapore Transportation Stock: ComfortDelgro (SGX: C52)
– Singapore Dividend Stock: Vicom (SGX: WJP)

Here is Dr Tee Free 2-hr Video Course. Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks.

View Dr Tee Video Here (switch on FB sound before viewing):
https://www.facebook.com/ifastgm/videos/363185765575573

Past readers could have profited with over 50% rally in share price if have taken actions during pandemic on similar giant stocks. No one could change the past but you could still change the future if taking action to learn now!

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Trading Tagged: dividend stock, growth stock, reit, undervalue stock

Top 5 Factors of Global and Singapore REITs Investing (五星联珠)

Posted on August 20, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In this Dr Tee 1hr video education (Top 5 Factors of Global and Singapore REITs Investing), you will learn:
1) Singapore Stock Market Outlook
– Short term, medium term & long term

2) LOFTP Investing Strategies for REITs Investing
– Level Analysis (L1 Stock, L1 Sector, L3 Country, L4 World)
– Optimism Analysis (0-100%)
– Fundamental Analysis (Strong / Weak)
– Technical Analysis (Follow-trend / Counter-trend)
– Personal Analysis (Short Term Trading / Long Term Investing)

3) 4 Case Studies of Global and Singapore REITs Giant Stocks
– Singapore Giant Reit: CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, CICT (SGX: C38U)
– Singapore Giant Reit: Parkway Life REIT (SGX: C2PU)
– Hong Kong Giant Reit: Link REIT (HKEX: 823)
– US Giant Reit: Equity Lifestyle Properties (NYSE: ELS)

4) 4 REITS Investing Strategies
– Dividend Investing (Buy Low & Hold, Long Term)
– Growth Investing (Buy Low & Hold, Long Term)
– Cyclic Investing (Buy Low & Sell High, Mid / Long Term)
– Momentum Trading (Buy High Sell Higher, Short Term)

5) Q&A with Practical Demo on Global REITs
– Short term & medium term trend-following TA strategies on entry / exit
– Summary on actions in REITs investing

Here is Dr Tee Free 1-hr Video Course. Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks.

Dr Tee Video Course: https://youtu.be/3-5r03LsCPA

For readers who are interested to take actions in 42 Singapore REITs and 16 Business Trusts, may read earlier article by Dr Tee (published in June 2020, one of the best time to invest in REITs during pandemic stock crisis):
https://www.ein55.com/2020/06/42-singapore-reits-16-business-trusts/

Past readers could have profited with over 50% rally in share price if have taken actions during pandemic on similar giant REITs such as Parkway Life REIT, CICT and many others REITs. No one could change the past but you could still change the future if taking action to learn now!

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

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Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: dividend stock, reit course, reit investing, Singapore REITs

3 Golden Rules of Stock Investment (金玉良言)

Posted on July 3, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

“Bull markets are born on PESSIMISM, grow on SKEPTICISM, mature on OPTIMISM and die on EUPHORIA.”, this is the Best Golden Rule of Sir John Templeton, founder of famous Templeton Funds, indicating management of human emotions is key for success in investment.

This is aligned with another famous saying by Warren Buffett: “Be Greedy when others are fearful. Be fearful when others are greedy“, which could be summarized simply as the universal law of “Buy Low Sell High“.

Everyone would agree the above 3 Golden Rules to make money in investment, but they are qualitative in nature (eg. how low is low, how high is high). In the practical investment world, how to do it exactly, would need a quantitative method such as Dr Tee “Ein55 Optimism” to Buy Low (when Optimism < 25%) and Sell High (when Optimism > 75%).

Pandemic year 2020 was “pessimistic” (Ein55 Optimism < 25%) based on Dr Tee criteria, therefore “Bull market was born’. Year 2021 is pandemic recovery with different views between bullish and bearish viewers, therefore stock market “grow on skepticism” (moderate Ein55 Optimism 40%-60%, near to fair value). One day, stock market may “mature on optimism” or “die on euphoria” when the stock market is over-heated (Ein55 Optimism > 75%-100%).

This is a natural emotional cycle which commonly reflected as stock market or economic cycle every 5 to 10+ years. Mastery of market cycle could help an investor maximizing the capital gains during a bull run and minimizing the market risks during a global financial crisis.

However, market cycle investing (eg. with Ein55 Optimism Method) has to be integrated with other dimensions of investment, eg. Fundamental Analysis (FA at business level), Economic Analysis (FA at country level), Technical Analysis (TA of share prices), Level Analysis (LA of Level 1 – stock, Level 2 – sector, Level 3 – country, Level 4 – world), Personal Analysis (PA to know own unique personality to define suitable style of investing or trading), etc.

If not, “Buy Low” may “Get Lower”, especially if an investor blindly invests in a weak fundamental stock with bearish price trend during a global financial crisis. Interested learners may refer to earlier hundreds of educational articles by Dr Tee on applications of LOFTP Analysis strategies on various global giant stocks.

========================

Tonight (2 July 2021) is key for US stock market to reflect emotions for non-farm payroll (jobs excluding farming, local gov and non-profit work) of June 2021, last trading day before 4th of July, US Independence Day celebration.

US non-farm payroll is another way to measure job market, has been on increasing trend during pandemic recovery. The key is how far the increment from the consensus (eg. 720k more jobs expected before the official report today). The Fed focuses mainly on job market and inflation to adjust its economic policies. More jobs created could add fuel to spending, thus stimulate the economy further, supporting the stock market indirectly in longer run.

If the actual number is too good (people may worry higher interest rate to cope with higher inflation due to potential over-heated economy) or too weak (people may worry economy is still weak) may give surprised market responses, best compromised results could be mild growth (slightly lower or higher than expectation) within the tolerances of both bull and bear viewers.

US Non-farm payroll for month of June 2021 with additional new jobs (850k) is higher than expected (720k) but unemployment rate (5.9%) is slightly higher than May 2021 (5.8%). So, gradual growth of economy or even mixed performance is probably the most ideal market condition for mass market, both bullish viewers (who worry about lagging economy) and bearish viewers (who worry about higher inflation or interest rate) are able to accept it.

Based on the market opening so far today (2 July 2021) with mild bullish US stock market, US job market has mixed performance which is ideal to balance between bull and bear viewer, supporting both S&P500 and Nasdaq indices to another new historical high tonight. Dow Jones (mainly 30 blue chip stocks) may also achieve a new high over the next few weeks.

At the same time, Asian stock markets (Singapore STI, Malaysia KLCI, Hong Kong HSI, China SSEC, etc) are stagnant recently after the rally in Q1 2021. Asian stock markets smaller in sizes, mainly follow US or global trends for stock market or economy. Pandemic recovery is getting faster with global vaccination, the likely stronger economy would help to support the growth of global stock markets in the next few years.

Last year, economy and stock market was diverged, stock market (forward looking, expecting pandemic would end sooner or later) was recovering ahead of economy. This year, economy starts to catch up with stock market (becoming slower growth as early investors have make over 50% gains in the last 1 year). Moving forward, economy and stock market would be more “normal” to move in similar pace, eg. moderate growth yearly until the next Global Financial Crisis comes unexpectedly to reset the market again.

Knowledge of macroeconomy would help both investors and traders to see the bigger picture as the stock market (dog) would follow the economy (master) but may not be in a predictable way, sometimes could be ahead or behind the master. A smart investor needs to digest what is known and what is unknown but likely to happen in future (eg. black swan which may induce the global financial crisis), taking calculated risks with a portfolio of 10-20 global giant stocks.

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market Tagged: investment strategies, market cycle investing, market outlook

Oil & Gas Stocks (Singapore, US, Hong Kong) with 100% Profit (火上加油)

Posted on June 14, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Crude oil crashed to negative price 1 year ago, how many of you dare to buy oil or related stocks when others were fearful? Everyone knows “Buy Low Sell High” is the secret to make money in investment but in practice, not many people able to pluck the low-hanging fruits.

In this article, you will learn from Dr Tee on Giant Oil & Stocks of 3 Countries (over 100% profits in the past 1 year) for longer term investing and / or short term trading with COVID-19 recovery stock rally. Bonus for readers who could read every word of the entire article, learning unique strategy to position in each giant stocks, including Ein55 Optimism level and Ein55 Intrinsic Value.

1) US Giant Oil & Gas Funds

Energy Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE ARCA: XLE) / US Oil Fund (NYSE ARCA: USO)

– 100% capital gains after oil price surged over 3 times in last 1 year

2) Singapore Giant Oil & Gas Stock: Union Gas Holdings (SGX: 1F2)

– over 100% profit since sharing in 5 months after sharing with Ein55 graduates & public webinars

3) Hong Kong / China Giant Oil & Gas Stock: Kunlun Energy Company (HKEX: 135)

– over 30% special dividend yield and over 20% capital gains since Ex-Dividend on 31 May 2021

Crude oil is a major commodity, therefore a giant by default (similar to property market which is also a form of commodity) as it is not possible for the world to live without energy supply. Crude oil experienced bearish market due to natural market cycle since Year 2014 when WTI crude oil prices fell from high optimism of over US$100/barrel to low optimism of US$20/barrel, even crashed to negative price (only for 1 day due to abnormal oil futures contract, mostly from USO oil fund) during pandemic in Apr 2020.

For cyclic giant such as crude oil and related Oil & Gas stocks, the entire market was reborn after the worst time of negative oil price. OPEC and non-OPEC oil producer countries learn to collaborate to stabilize the oil price during this crisis of century. Since then, oil price and related stocks start to rebound from low Ein55 Optimism but mainly limited to long term value investors. During recovery of pandemic over the past 1 year with more energy consumption (industries, transportation, household, etc), oil price and related stocks have gone up steadily, even approaching fair prices with mid Ein55 Optimism. With support of more short term traders who join the game recently (火上加油), oil and gas stocks are enjoying strong uptrend momentum in prices.

A giant stock may not need to be big in size, even a small company could be a giant stock. There are hundreds of Oil & Gas stocks globally but some could be junk stocks, Buy Low may become lower in share prices with declining businesses. Let’s study Global Giant Oil & Gas Stocks (following Dr Tee criteria), some are recovering from lower optimism in 3 global stock exchanges interested by readers:

1) US Giant Oil & Gas Funds

Energy Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE ARCA: XLE) / US Oil Fund (NYSE ARCA: USO)

There is no direct way of investing in crude oil market, some investors may consider either investing through oil futures fund, eg. United States Oil ETF (NYSE ACRA: USO) or Energy Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE ARCA: XLE).

USO oil fund applies rollover of WTI oil futures contracts to invest in oil indirectly. Due to Contango in most of the time over the past few years, USO has underperformed actual oil price due to the additional loss (reducing overall capital gains) when rollover to future contracts with higher prices. However, current oil futures is under Backwardation, rollover of monthly futures contracts with lower prices would give extra capital gains, therefore higher probability of winning for trading crude oil with USO.

During pandemic in Q2 2020, WTI fell to $20/barrel, an investor may apply average down strategy (see earlier educational article by Dr Tee during the worst time of pandemic: https://www.ein55.com/2020/03/10-bullets-of-crude-oil-uso-etf-investing/), even if following oil prices to $0 (excluding negative price), average entry price is only $10/barrel (average of $20 + $15 + $10 + $5 + $0), now is already over $70/barrel, over 7 times.

Even if an investor invested in WTI oil price at the highest price of low optimism level, $20/barrel, the corresponding USO fund price was about $33/unit (after 8 to 1 stock consolidation), current price is about $48/unit (with WTI price of about $70/barrel), nearly 50% capital gains (not comparable with actual 3X oil price gains from $20/barrel to $70/barrel, mainly due to USO huge loss during negative oil price and Contango period).

If reading most blogs or analysts reports during pandemic in Q2/2020 after negative oil price, most would write with hindsight that USO was in trouble, may even go bankrupt. Interest in Oil & Gas stocks was very low as well with so many bad news on crude oil market in the past. In fact, this was a perfect time for oil & gas giant stock investing, especially for a few with strong business, supported by dividend yield over 10% (only known to Ein55 graduates), possible for contrarian investing with average down strategy to Buy Low, collecting quarterly dividend while waiting for the light at the end of tunnel for stock recovery to Sell High one day (currently is only a fair price for crude oil and related giant stocks).

After 1 year later, for investors who could take action with calculated risk on USO (despite this is not perfect for oil investing) or Oil & Gas giant stocks, they are rewarded now. For those who are still thinking or analyzing today (when others are not fearful anymore on oil market), the upside is limited, unless following short term momentum trading.

An alternative to oil futures fund or giant stock investing is to invest in a portfolio of large cap stocks (may not be giant stocks), diversifying the unsystematic business risks. SPDR fund for Energy Sector Index (XLE) consists of big oil & gas companies such as Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX), etc. These oil & gas stocks are too big to fail (although may not be true all the time but unlikely for all to go bankrupt together), having more reserves to last through the winter time with low Ein55 Optimism oil prices. XLE fund portfolio is supported by integrated oil businesses (upstream oil exploration, midstream oil delivery and storage, downstream oil refinery and processing).

When WTI oil price was $20/barrel, assuming an investor invested in XLE (was about $28/unit), potential capital gains so far is 100%, 2X with XLE at about $55/unit. XLE could be a better option than USO for longer term investing as it is supported indirectly by big Oil & Gas companies (may not be giant stocks, following Dr Tee criteria) with interests affected by oil prices. USO is fine for shorter term trading unless during Backwardation period with additional capital gains.

Current Brent or WTI crude oil price of $70+/barrel is still below the Ein55 Intrinsic Value of about $80+/barrel. When there is market greed (common for cyclic commodity market), there is further potential to go beyond $100+/barrel, especially with weaker US Dollar and strong global economy during pandemic recovery after global vaccination. If so, a smart investor would know when to exit, taking profits at high Ein55 Optimism, waiting for the next market cycle to profit from crude oil and related stocks again.

For conservative investors, it is fine to exit earlier with fair price (after Buy Low last time), converting Oil & Gas stocks to cash (as future investment opportunity fund) or Change Horse to other more defensive dividend giant stocks in the phase 2 (greedy market cycle) of stock market. Cash is King when used at the right time (usually during bearish market with low Ein55 Optimism such as Year 2020 pandemic), an investor has to know when to convert between stocks and cash.

2) Singapore Giant Oil & Gas Stock: Union Gas Holdings (SGX: 1F2)

There are only about 40 Oil & Gas giant stocks globally, excluding marginal giant stocks with familiar names such as Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4). In fact, many Oil & Gas giant stocks are small and medium cap stocks, businesses have been growing steadily even with bearish WTI crude oil prices over the past 6 years, falling from $100/barrel to $20/barrel to negative prices. Value is what you get (barrel of crude oil) and price is what you pay, therefore abnormal negative price (seller has to pay to buyer) could not last over 1 day. It can be risky to invest in non-giant oil & gas stocks, especially in Singapore, Buy Low may get lower or even potentially going bankrupt in business, losing everything.

Union Gas is a young Oil & Gas Giant stock in Singapore (4 years after IPO) but having over 40 years of business in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas), business performance has been excellent before and after IPO till now, potential to expand from Singapore to other Southeast Asian countries. Major shareholder (Teo family) has over 70% ownership, paying steady dividend to themselves and also to other shareholders. However, Union Gas share price was stagnant since IPO until last 1 year of pandemic (crisis as opportunity due to higher demand for LPG when people staying longer at home), starting to break above low optimism level of $0.30/share, going up steadily.

When Dr Tee assigned this homework to Ein55 Graduates in Jan 2021, main strategy was positioning for trading with entry share price at $0.53/share or above after each intermediate price breakout. The stock has gone up a few rounds over the past 5 months, trend-following trading may be applied, especially for giant stock at higher optimism with support by growing business in a promising sector with strong global economy. Based on current price of $1.10 on 14 June 2021 (another 10% rally today), it has doubled its share price with 100% profits.

Union Gas is both a growth stock for long term investing and momentum stock for short term trading. Dr Tee has used the same stock as case study in free 4hr monthly webinars (www.ein55.com) over the past few months, even a trader may enter halfway at $0.80+, potential gains so far is already over 30%. For shorter term trading of giant stocks, it is crucial to include S.E.T. (Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices) in trading plan.

Union Gas is one of over 200 stocks in Singapore Catalist Market, mostly are penny stocks (many have weak business fundamentals), only 5 stocks have over $1/share price. However, some strong price penny stocks in the past may not be sustainable in future. For example, both UG Healthcare Corporation (SGX: 8K7) and Medtecs International Corporation (SGX: 546) from Catalist market were over $1/share, now back to penny stock (below $1/share) after the market greed has subsided for pandemic beneficiary stocks. Those speculators who chase after the high prices would suffer huge loss when the momentum is stopped one day.

In the last rally of global stock market, usually penny stocks including many junk stocks would go to higher optimism level, speculators may buy up (especially when stock prices rising over 2-10 times) without consideration of businesses, ignorant of price vs value. Sadly to say, this group of speculators (mainly applying tips strategy in action taking) may make some pocket money with over small gains of 10-20% but eventually may need to pay back over big losses of 50-90% to Mr Market when show hands at wrong time with more capitals in future trades of junk stocks with consideration of prices alone (happened several times before, including penny stock crisis many years ago with Blumont (SGX: A33), LionGold (SGX: A78), etc.

3) Hong Kong / China Giant Oil & Gas Stock: Kunlun Energy Company (HKEX: 135)

Kunlun Energy was a Temasek stock who was lucky to sell the stocks many years ago while the stock prices falling from peak of over $16/share in Year 2013 to $4/share during pandemic 2020. In fact, Kunlun Energy has been a little giant stock under giant parent company, PetroChina (HKEX: 857), No 2 largest Oil & Gas stock in the world. Kunlun is a small cap company with integrated LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) businesses.

Kunlun Energy has strong business fundamental but share prices have been affected by bearish crude oil and natural gas prices. Natural gas usually is a byproduct of crude oil drilling, therefore both Oil & Gas stocks are strongly correlated in both businesses and share prices within similar sector, despite the applications are different. Even the future world may not need crude oil one day, becoming 100% green energy, still needs natural gas to produce electricity.

So, popularity of electric vehicles would not eliminate traditional energy sources of crude oil and natural gas. Buying technology giant stocks such as Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is mainly investing in future (pretty picture with higher uncertainty), while buying Oil & Gas giant stocks, are based on proven current business (low-hanging fruits). An investor may make decision with known facts (which sometimes may last for decades, no need to predict into future which may not come within one’s lifetime.

Over the last 1 year of pandemic, Kunlun Energy recovers in share prices from $4/share to over $9/share with over 100% capital gains. Over the past few months, Dr Tee has shared Kunlun Energy with both Ein55 Graduates and monthly free 4hr public webinars (www.ein55.com), those who take actions recently could profit in both one-time special dividend yield of 32% (mainly due to disposal of an asset) and over 20% capital gains since Ex-Dividend on 31 May 2021 till now.

Kunlun Energy is still a momentum stock for trading, certain trading platform may not adjust for 32% dividend yield on 31 May 2021, then investor has to take note of the 30% price ($9 to $6) differences. It may also be considered for longer term investing (current price is still near to low Ein55 optimism level) with Ein55 Intrinsic Value nearly $18. However, this stock is highly cyclical, may not be suitable for low risk tolerance investor (even Temasek sold it in the last bearish cycle), despite business fundamental is excellent with strong sponsor (PetroChina), share price could fluctuate more than indices.

Volatility could be friend for traders while low optimism (price lower than value) could be friend for investors. So, an investor has to confirm PA (Personal Analysis), aligning the investing strategies with own unique personality (eg. short term trading or long term investing). PA is an anchor point to avoid drifting of position due to emotional stock market. “Copy and Paste” of other people’s best stocks or successes may not work without internalization.

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Due to sector rotation with weakening of USD, commodity market is recovering steadily from low optimism in last few years, now approaching mid optimism of fair value, attracting potential short term traders to follow the uptrend prices of commodity stocks (oil & gas, agricultural, precious metals, etc).

Value investor has option to enter these lower Ein55 Optimism stocks at much lower prices (Buy Low Sell High) with contrarian investing (supporting by high dividend yield). Short term traders would enter at much higher prices (Buy high sell higher), following trends.

Either long term investing or short term trading could make money in stocks. A common way could not make money is simply do nothing, waiting for inflation to depreciate the cash by -2% yearly which is sure loss over long term. Cash is King only when used at the right time, not keeping forever.

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Filed Under: Commodity Market, Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market Tagged: commodity, crude oil, Hong Kong Market, oil & gas, temasek, US Stocks

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