Hidden Statistical Analysis of Coronavirus with Stock Investment

Posted on February 4, 2020 Written by
statistical analysis coronavirus

Some may be puzzled why there are so many death cases for Coronavirus in China, especially in Hubei (258) but 0 (zero) case outside mainland China. From statistics point of view, this drastic difference may be due to certain reasons.

Does it mean the virus is more deadly in China than outside China (quite unlikely as many who are infected outside China traveled from Wuhan). Does it mean China medical resources are less, resulting in lower survival rate (may be but unlikely to be so different)?

From statistical analysis (as of 1 Feb 2020), we may identify possible sampling or reporting error:

Area / # Infected / # Death / Fatality Rate (%)
==============================
Mainland China / 11757 / 258 / 2.19%

Hubei only / 7153 / 249 / 3.48%
Mainland China ex Hubei / 4604 / 9 / 0.19%

World ex mainland China / 108 / 0 / 0.00%

World inc China / 11865 / 258 / 2.17%
================================
There are a few key observations:
1) Using total sample size (world inc China) to compute 2% fatality rate of 2% may not be accurate. This results in great fear overseas but so far 0 death overseas, while common flu has more death in these countries.

2) Within mainland China, when comparing Hubei vs the rest of the region in mainland China, we can observe drastic difference of fatality rate of 3.48% (Hubei) vs 0.19% (other China cities, although not 0 but closer to observation outside China, a low fatality rate).

Assuming reporting are all true (one may argue), here are possible reasons:

Hubei could have much more infected cases but only those diagnosed officially in hospitals are reported, this lower down the base of # infected. At the same time, those minor cases or not diagnosed cases may recover gradually at home, therefore not reported. Those severe cases need to seek medical help, therefore were sent to hospital which eventually some are reported as death.

So, assuming Hubei vs other China cities should have the same fatality rate of 0.19%, this implies actual # infected in Hubei could be 3.48/0.19 = 16.7 times more than 7153 reported based on official / hospital cases.

This is same as common flu in the world, no one could be precise to tell the actual fatality rate because the # death could be accurate (sent to hospital) but # infected is just an estimation.

For world ex China, currently has 0 death case but let’s take the worst case of having 1 death based on current # 108 infected, then max fatality rate is 0.93%, which is less than 1%.

Based on different grouping of data above, the 0.19% fatality rate of China ex Hubei may be a more likely number for Coronavirus, which is about 3-4 times stronger than normal flu (estimated as 0.05%). The key is to control the base (# infected) for Coronavirus, therefore current moves to restrict travelling among the countries are correct. If not, if the base is similar to common flu (which have 12000 death in US yearly), the 3-4 times higher fatality could be disaster to the world. Despite Ebola virus is very deadly (over 50%) but # infected is less.

Crisis is Opportunity if one is prepared, eg waiting patiently for price of giant stocks to drop much lower value, having holding power for recovery.

Crisis is Crisis if one simply follows other people’s views (especially mass market), fearful and greedy at the same time, not considering own personality (eg. risk tolerance, reward expectation, holding power, etc).

Conclusions:
Coronavirus may not be as deadly as reported (2%), could be 10 times weaker, 0.2%, may be due to many cases # infected unreported (not sent to hospital). However, even if fatality is as low as common flu, it can still cause many deaths due large # infected, which should be the priority now to limit the spreading of virus while finding a medical solution.

The most deadly part of any new virus (Coronavirus or any future virus) is not death case but the FEAR emotion which drives humanity into selfishness, loneliness / isolation, depression, etc. So, science including statistical analysis would help us to stay calm but continue to keep the right habits to minimize the spreading, infection and fatality of viruses.

Application of statistics and sampling is everywhere. Eg. in Taiwan recent presidential election, we can observe poll from small sample is relatively accurate to predict the winning rates of different candidates (within 5% difference) but not on actual final number which depends on how many people present to cast the vote on actual day.

Similarly for stock investment, careful statistical analysis is required, not to just take a gross number, eg business is up or down within certain year (eg. Breadtalk). It is important to further divide into different divisions, each could have different performance (eg. Food court and Restaurant divisions are profitable, Bakery and 4orth divisions with external partnership are in loss).

Fundamental Analysis using some key numbers (eg. ROE > 5%) is fine as a quick filter but deeper analysis is required to understand the business (eg economic moat). Similarly for LOB-FTP (Level/Optimism/Business/Fundamental/Technical/Personal) Analysis, this requires much more time to evaluate a stock before making decision (Buy / Hold / Sell / Wait / Shorting) aligning with own personality (eg. short/medium/long term investing).

Interested readers may register for Free 4hr stock investment course by Dr Tee to learn the details. Register Here: www.ein55.com

Wish all readers Healthy and Wealthy at the same time!

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Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Stock Market Tagged: ,

Impact of Travel Ban on Economy with Coronavirus

Posted on February 4, 2020 Written by
travel ban

US follows Singapore, also ban those who visited China in last 14 days from entering US except US own people. Australia then follows US with similar move.

However, China criticizes on US’ move today, not Singapore’s move yesterday, showing the relationship among the countries. US is the world leader, many countries would follow its move, especially if elections may come soon, it is important to win the heart of own people.

Many major airlines in US have stopped the flight services between US and China, travelling is still possible through third country but will be significantly less. From economic point of view, this will be a major injury as China contributes to about 30% of global tourists, main source of revenue generation (eg. Thailand suffers a lot with both declining income with few China tourists, also having the most cases of Coronavirus outside China). Taiwan suffered over the past few years with high tension with China, less tourists to Taiwan, now become a blessing in disguise with few cases.

There is always a balance, gaining from China in the past due to more trades or more tourists but now may suffer more with drastic change.

Based on the statistics so far, growth rate of new coronavirus cases are stable at 2000 daily (about 40+ death daily), moving in 1 straightline until a peak is reached, then the growth rate will be slower. If it continues at the same rate for 100 days before arrival of warmer summer or spring, implying 2000 x 100 = 200000 cases, death or fatality rate will be around 2%). There is a high possibility that Coronavirus may become a common flu one day as it is more contagious than SARS or even flu. The R0 value is 3, implying 1 person affected could pass to another 3 persons. Next 3-6 months will be golden period for global scientists to come out with an effective vaccine (until it may be transformed to a new virus in the next season, similar to different types of flu spreading globally each year, killing thousands of people – average 12000 death in US yearly due to flu).

Singapore may be blessed with hot weather, virus may be less active or less deadly. So, try not to touch on anything in public place, then touch own face (eyes, mouth, nose).

If this virus continues even until summer, impact to global economy (especially to China) would be much higher than SARS in 2002-2003 (only 8 months). Investors need to monitor the global stock market and other possible black swan. SARS mainly affected Asia last time but Coronavirus could affect whole world, even it is not as deadly as SARS, less death cases than common flu, however the fear would be tremendous. this may be enough to cause global economy slowdown (less travelling, less trades, less shopping and therefore less spending), if not global financial crisis.

Let’s continue to monitor the trend of Coronavirus. The risk of viruses (common flu, SARS, Coronavirus, Ebola, H1N1, H5N1, MERS, etc) will be never ending. Human needs to learn to minimize the probability of happening (at least not to create new by eating wild animals), finding medical solutions (medical technology) for cure, as well as strengthen own immune system (health / diet) and following other positive habits. Learn to invest in stocks during crisis: www.ein55.com

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Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Stock Market Tagged: , , ,

Winter is Coming – 3 Strategies for Global Stock Market Crisis

Posted on July 3, 2019 Written by

For fans of Game of Thrones, they are familiar with “Winter is Coming” as there are signs before the crisis in kingdom.  However, for fans of stock market, it is important to know how to prepare for coming winter (global economic recession) after a long summer of bullish stock market over 10 years since recovery from the last global stock market crisis in year 2009.  

Trump has been trying to prolong the bull run with various policies, eg. reduction of corporate tax from 35% to 21%, creating more jobs in US, trade war with China and the rest of the world for quick gains of US, etc.  Unfortunately, economy usually behaves in a cyclic manner due to over-supply or over-demand at different stages of economy, requiring years to get back to normal again after reaching the extreme greed or fear in market emotions.   When we see summer in US now (overheated economy with the lowest unemployment rate of 3.6% in 49 years in US, historical high of S&P500 index at 2973 points recorded recently, inverted bond yield, etc), we know “winter is coming” for global stock market crisis, the coldness of potential financial crisis would spread globally from US, the No 1 economy with more than 50% global stock value.

Here are 3 ways to prepare for global stock market crisis (financial winter time) for 3 fans of stock market: long term investors, market cycle investors and short term traders.

1) Stock Market Crisis for Long Term Investors
It is possible for long term investors to ignore the up and down in prices, including potential winter time (global stock market crisis) because the investors have prepared well in advance when investing many years ago, there is no need to exit at all during market correction.  The conditions for long term or even lifetime investing (buy and hold permanently) are the stocks invested should be over a portfolio of at least 10 strong fundamental stocks at low optimism price, defensive in prices (less volatility with strong economic moat) with consistent growth in both share prices and businesses for capital gains, as well as some dividend payment (>2% dividend yield) as bonus, exceeding the bank interest rate.

This strategy requires knowledge of super giant stocks (what to buy from <5% of selected global stocks), ability to take action during the coldest winter (Level 4 – global financial crisis) and tremendous patience and calm to hold through a long term or even throughout the lifetime (continue to hold as long as quarterly or yearly review, confirming it is still a giant stock)

2) Stock Market Crisis for Market Cycle Investors
Market cycle investors integrate the best of investing (buy strong fundamental stocks) and trading (buy low sell high), leveraging on economic cycles (typically over 5-10 years) to safely maximize the return with natural investment clock.

This strategy requires a regional (Level 3) or global (Level 4) financial crisis to create tremendous fear in the stock market for majority of investors and traders to sell low unwillingly or willingly (over 50% discount in share prices at low optimism). However, a financial crisis could be a real crisis for weak businesses which may not last through the winter during economic recession (potential bankruptcy).  Therefore, it is important to invest in a portfolio of at least 10 giant stocks with strong business fundamental, especially for stocks in cyclic sectors such as banking & finance, property, technology, airline, industrial, etc.

3) Stock Market Crisis for Short Term Traders
Short term traders could still enjoy the hot summer, eg. current bullish stock market to buy high sell higher with momentum trading or swing trading. This group of stock market fans could react faster to the changes in stock market, especially when it turns direction from bull to bear.  In fact, short term traders could participate in all stages of stock market, firstly buy up in possible last phase of bullish stock market, shorting in bearish stock market crisis, finally buy up again when stock market is reborn again one day.  However, the emotional control is the most critical (greed, fear, regret, etc) for stocks traders to be successful.

This strategy requires short term positioning (from weeks to months), successful traders need to follow proven trading plan to enter with bullish signals and exit when there are confirmed bearish signals (eg. trending down in share prices), continue to hold (position trading) when there are no major changes.  Although short term stock trading may not require strong fundamental stocks as business may not have drastic changes in weeks or months, it is still useful for traders to consider profitable business (when long a stock) as both good fundamental and market greed could contribute to higher share prices in a bullish short term stock market.

Since summer is here and winter is coming, have you prepared for this rare opportunity? Any of the 3 fans above could profit from stock market crisis but should know the exact strategy (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell).  Don’t be ignorant with no action taken as there is great opportunity cost for missing in action in stock market crisis. Learn from Dr Tee with free 4hr stock investment course, preparing to profit from stock market crisis.

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Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook Tagged:

US-China Trade War Investment Opportunities

Posted on June 5, 2019 Written by

Economy and stock market are closely related, as if Master (economy) walks the Dog (stock). Master (economy) usually moves slowly but Dog (stock) is more active, responding fast to changes in environment (financial or political markets). The Master may walk several Dogs (stocks, properties, commodities, forex, bond, etc) at the same time, each Dog may respond differently (eg. Bond may get more attention when Master or economy becomes weak).

For an investor, we need to monitor both the Master & Dog, are they moving the same direction (uptrend)? Are they strong giants (strong country economy at Level 3 & stock with strong business fundamental at Level 1). What are their optimism levels? Are correction in investment markets, fear or weaker fundamental driven?

Currently trader war between US and China is mainly driven by Trump with complicated considerations, unlike usual black swan (global financial crisis) which is both a systematic & unsystematic risk. Trump may need to monitor S&P 500 index regularly to know when to adjust the political strategy. When S&P 500 is corrected below 2500 points, fear driven stock market could evolve into weaker economy driven stock market, could be too late to reverse then.

“Wolf is coming” may end up into a real big bear market (when S&P 500 falls into or below 1500-2000 points) when real economy is hurt by falling in stock market below the critical level. Many people’s wealth is based on investment market (stocks, properties, bonds or even cryptocurrencies, etc), capital losses or reduction in capital gains would result in cut down in spending or investment, the downtrend price and economic cycle may get worse this way.

If Trump takes reverse action in trade war by end of 2019 (eg. finalize agreements with other major economies such as China, Europe, Japan, India, etc), the timing may be just nice for year 2020, creating a nice intermediate correction, stock market rebound to support a mid-term bullish or side-way market to support the second term US president election.

Economy is a slower indicator, when it is confirmed downtrend, stock market could have fallen more than 50%. At the same time, stock price is a faster indicator, today falling down, tomorrow could recover higher. There is a balance in between, integrating these considerations in own LO-FTP (Level 1-4 + Optimism + Fundamental + Technical + Personal Analysis) strategies.

Crisis is always an opportunity for investment, including the current trade war between US and the rest of the world. However, a crisis could be a real crisis if one does not know how to position, eg. buy low get lower in stock prices, or even a business could go bankrupt during the bear market. The right way of crisis investing is to form a dream team portfolio of 10 giant stocks, overcome own fear to buy low and wait patiently for the recovery to sell high in future. It looks simple but without proper training, it could be a disaster for speculators.

Learn from Dr Tee free 4hr stock investment course to learn the integrated LO-FTP strategies for trade war investment opportunities in stocks, properties, commodities, forex and bonds.

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Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing Tagged:

Cyclic Trading (Buy Low Sell High) vs Growth Investing (Buy Low & Hold)

Posted on April 22, 2019 Written by

Usually before a black swan could become a black bear for stock market, there are many market signals, eg:
1) High stock market optimism > 75% at global level (fulfilled)
2) Inverted bond yield for US (partial fulfilled)
3) Strong US job data < 4% unemployment rate (fulfilled)
… many more stock market and economic indicators

The global stock market is indeed feverish but it may get excited for a period of time first before falling down. Since global stock market at country level is a giant, it would recover one day as well, therefore a no-brainer way of investing could be simply invest in stocks of major economy (eg. US S&P500 ETF, Hong Kong HSI ETF, Singapore STI ETF, etc), buy low & hold long term.

A black swan is a market surprise, therefore not predictable. However, if we guess each month for 10-20 years based on everyday global financial news, one of them could turn into a black swan or global financial crisis eventually.

Therefore, a more practical way could be to allocate our funds based on market optimism. When optimism is higher, we could gradually take more profit, converting stocks into cash. At the same time, position more with shorter term trading with lower risk (assuming no leveraging), one could react faster when a true black swan is here.

We should view the economic cycle positively as it provides an opportunity for smart investors to buy low sell high with cyclic trading.

At the same time, there are defensive growth stocks which are not affected much by global financial crisis, suitable for buy low & hold with growth investing until the business growth is not sustainable, can be as long as lifetime as some businesses could transform and continue to grow.

In shorter term timeframe, traders could also apply swing trading (cyclic trading to buy low sell high within weeks or months) or momentum trading (buy & hold for a period of time until the momentum is over)

Ein55 graduates have learned various types of cyclic vs growth/momentum stocks for long term investing vs short term trading. Use the unique market condition to create various opportunities for us, aligning to own unique personalities.

For general public, you could learn the 5 pillars of Ein55 investing/trading: LO-FTP (Levels 1-4, Optimism, FA, TA, PA) through free 4hr stock investment course by Dr Tee. You will learn how to Buy Low Sell High, as well as Buy Low & Hold. Register Here: www.ein55.com

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Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing Tagged:

Century Investment Opportunity in US China Trade War

Posted on July 12, 2018 Written by
The US China trade war has become real and escalating to a bigger scale with time. As a result, global stock markets suffer, including China Shanghai index is at low optimism < 25%. US is the only major economy which still has bullish stock market (S&P500 is still above 2700 points) for short term. Other global stock exchanges in Asia, Europe, etc, are bearish in short term, global investors are worrying if this may trigger the next global financial crisis.
 
China has several lose-lose options to fight against US, including depreciation of RMB (inflation would be rising then, a potential monster for China) and the worst case, selling or dumping of US treasury bond, both elephants of US and China would get injures this way when global bond market may be crashed.
 
China starts to understand the consequence of depending on external markets after joining WTO about 20 years ago. It gains more foreign capitals but lose the strong control as last time. In a longer term, China has to form stronger alliance with other countries such as Europe, South-east Asia, etc, One-Belt-One-Road project is moving in the right direction but not timely for current political crisis. China also needs to speed up internal capability development in advanced technology (eg semiconductor, high speed computing, AI, 5G, etc), financial strength (currency, stock, etc), military, and ensure sufficient critical agricultural products such as soya bean (start to grow itself but not enough to cope with current demand if supply from US is reduced during trade war).
 
Every 100 years or so, there is usually a change in super power at country level (eg. from Spain to British to America over the past few hundred years), there is a strong trend for China to emerge as the next challenger for US as No 1 economy after unsuccessful rise of Japan and Europe over the past few decades. In the ancient time, real wars may be occurred before the new super power could take control. In the modern time, the “war” could be more complicated: political or financial (trade, economy, stock, currency, bond, commodity, etc) but the consequence could be as severe as real war.
 
Crisis is usually an opportunity, especially at country (Level 3) and world (Level 4) levels. A stock trader and investor may position differently to profit from this once a century trade war between 2 super power.
 
As a trader, trend following is crucial. To long (buy low sell high), the only stock market with higher probability is US. If not, shorting (profit when share price is falling) could be a higher probability trading for other global stock markets in short term. Alternatively, a trader has an option to wait patiently for the recovery of global stock market including Singapore.
 
As an investor, not everyone could capture the falling knife in share prices, buying strong fundamental stocks at lower price as it still has the short term momentum which may drive lower. A smart investor has to compare the low and high of individual stock (Level 1) with the low and high of mega stock market (eg. indices, Level 3). Optimism strategies can be applied for relative comparison of stocks at Level 1 (individual business), Level 2 (sector), Level 3 (country) and Level 4 (world).
 
Learn from Dr Tee to position in stocks with this century investment opportunity from US China trade war. Register a free 4 hour course.
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Filed Under: Macroeconomy Tagged:

4 Positions of Economy vs Stock Market

Posted on July 4, 2018 Written by
Economy (master) and stock market (dog) is similar to master walks the dog, now dog is behind the master who is walking faster. When both master and dog are slow, then it will be a concern, regardless who is ahead
 
There are 2 relative positions (behind/ahead) with 2 overall paces (fast/slow) with 4 scenarios of economy vs stock market:
(1) Bullish market – master (economy) could be ahead/behind stock (dog), while both are walking at faster rate
 
(2) Bearish market – master (economy) could be ahead/behind stock (dog), while both are walking at slower rateeconomt
 
Now could be scenario (1) bull market with economy ahead of stock market but if the dog is too slow until the master is also slowed down, it could become scenario (2), turning from bullish to bearish.
 
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Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Stock Market Tagged:

Jungle Book – Rules of Stock Market

Posted on June 27, 2018 Written by

When there is no Jungle Book (rules of stock market), 2 elephants are fighting (trade war between US and China), both would get injured (lose-lose) while observers (other countries including Singapore) will also get the splash. The best protection for weaker animals (retail traders or investors) may be to exit and hide in a safer place with precious asset, watching remotely waiting until the crisis is over to rebuild the jungle of global stock market.
 
Remember the story of movie Jungle Book (2016 version)? Sometimes it may take an unexpected wild jungle fire (global financial crisis) to wake everyone up, knowing the common enemy of unlimited greed and fear. Thinking positively, every crisis (financial, political, cultural, etc) in mankind is a wake-up call, an alarm for change to survive in long term. Human is able to adapt to changes after understanding the rules of stock market.
 
The jungle is still healthy (global economy is still bullish, eg. better job market), when these giants know that there are enough resources for everyone on this planet, they will learn to manage the emotions, sharing peacefully in an win-win manner, then the bull market could continue. If not, each of them may have to learn from a painful lesson in future.
 
Economy could be an unlimited pot of soup, each of us have a spoon with long handle, it is hard for us to feed only ourselves (I Win – You Lose) but if we could feed each other (Win – Win), everyone could share the wealth of the world together.
 
Until then, stock market is still like Hunger Game, a place for everyone (speculators, traders, investors, beginners, big funds, even government, etc) to pursue the wealth with various strategies (alliance, standalone, etc).
 
Learn from Dr Tee in free stock investment courses to master the Jungle Book, rules of stock market to be a big winner.
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Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Outlook Tagged: ,

Stock Investment Lessons from Malaysia Election

Posted on May 10, 2018 Written by
It is very hard to write about Mahathir (老马) in history book 10 years later. 成也老马、败也老马。幸亏老马识途，大马有救！
 
Mahathir’s life is like a company, started as an activist (start-up company or disruptive technology), then leading the party or even establish country vision 2020 with own set of rules (growing company), eventually ruling for more than 20 years (matured company), finally stepping down from the stage (changing from CEO to Chairman or Advisor of a company after retirement), cannot rest during retirement (bringing down at least 2 prime ministers and 2 deputy prime ministers, similar to internal company conflicts), finally starting another party and rule the country again (start new company as competitor to take over the market share).
 
Under PH, due to balanced power among the 4 or 5 parties (if Sabah included), we are back to 1957/1963 when Malaysia first independent with balance of power among Umno, MCA, MIC and even later with Singapore and Sabah/Sarawak joined. This is similar to a company with several major powers, there is no significant major shareholders, no one has more than 50% shares (like Umno in the past few decades), then it becomes a group decision making, until one day a party becomes larger again.
 
People should be the boss, although each one is like owning only 1 share in a company but when group together, it could choose the board of director to rule the company or the country. Malaysia now has a dual-political system which is good, similar to USA, every 5 years, the board or ruling parties/alliance has to show the report card to people (you as the boss), you could decide who to fire or hire. Therefore, education is required to train the people to be a smart boss, knowing the short term needs (saving GST, toll fee, income tax), understanding to compromise for long term needs (growth of company or stock).
 
Understanding a country (general election) is similar to choose a good company. However, when a company is not good, we could sell the stock and choose a better one. When a country is wrong, we should correct it, not just abandon it. Although there is no forever right, at least Malaysia is back to the right starting point again, which path to choose will determine the growth of Malaysia.
 
Singapore without much natural resources, after SG50, could grow to be a strong country, therefore a giant (not just by size). Singapore is similar to US in the past 50 years, able to attract foreign talents who are dissatisfied with home countries, to stay as second home or even new home, contributing to success of Singapore. If Malaysia has the right management (see the example of last 10 years of statement governments in Penang and Selangor), the growth rate should be stronger than Singapore. Singapore may not have the same outstanding leader as late Lee Kuan Yew anymore but with a system setup, at least it could be a slow grower country (3-5% GDP), similar to other matured economy such as US.
 
From investment perspective, there is no need to guess or predict which country will be better 10 years from now. We could just choose from the current market. China has been recovering from the 100 years of correction since Qing Dynasty, we could ride the way by considering China related stocks, especially related to rising of middle class. For Malaysia stocks, we don’t have to guess the impact of new government, just use the next few years to observe the different Malaysia giant stocks.
 

To learn about stock investment, which country to invest, what giant stocks to buy, when to buy …. simply register for a free stock investment course by Dr Tee.

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Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Personal Analysis Tagged: ,

Malaysia Political Cycle Investing

Posted on May 10, 2018 Written by

I stay till over 3am tonight (9 May 2018) so far, observing an important historical milestone in my home country, Malaysia: a dramatic change of federal government, from BN to PH. PH will also control 7 state governments (Perak is still uncertain).

Chinese believes in 60 years of cycle duration (5 x 12 = 60, 一甲子), it is about 60 years of BN ruling Malaysia since independence in 1957. 《三国演义》：“话说天下大势，分久必合，合久必分。From the wisdom of thousand years of Chinese history, we learn that when there is common interest, various groups could become friends, but one day, they will split due to internal conflicts again. It will take a long time before the next cycle to split begins, if the new PH government could use this historical opportunities to strengthen the foundation, it could continue to rule Malaysia for several decades.

How’s the impact on Malaysia future economy, stock investment, forex, etc? Short term market reaction so far is a weaker Ringgit vs USD because this is a major change in Malaysia. PH has announced 2 days of public holidays on May 10 and 11, not sure if Bursa stock market will follow the soon-to-be government to rest for 2 days. If yes, there could be some turbulence.

We don’t have to speculate which Malaysia stocks will rise or fall down. Instead, let the trading or investing opportunities come to us. Let the share prices stabilize for a few days after absorbing the market news. It is never too late to grab on investing opportunities in Malaysia.

In a longer term, if Malaysia is under a more efficient government, the economy and stock market will have higher growth potential but it will take at least 1 decade to see the results. PH is still an alliance of different parties, sometimes compromised decision may not be the best but as long as it is fair and transparent, the country could move in a positive uptrend direction again.

Optimism is also crucial for a political system. BN lost in this political tsunami, partly due to past few years of oil & gas crisis and weak ringgit, local people has been at low optimism in life, especially with the rising cost of living (eg. GST). PH may not be lucky as well because currently is Level 4 (global) high optimism, even if Malaysia stock is at moderate optimism, based on a 5 years political cycle for 1 term of government, it is not easy to achieve uptrend in stock market to show the results 5 years later. It is the same situation for Trump in US, who may try to sustain the high optimism US stock market till at least year 2020 as a report card to seek for his second term as US president.

There is no regret to witness a political cycle of a country. Sincerely hope Malaysia will become a better country, being a closer partner with Singapore. Learn about future stock investment opportunities in Malaysia, Singapore and the rest of the world with from Dr Tee free investment courses.

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Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Personal Analysis, Uncategorized Tagged: ,
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