3 Strategies for Double Top Stock Market (峰回路转)

Posted on June 12, 2020 Written by
Double Top Stock Market Strategies

US stock markets (both S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices) start to form potential “Double Top” at high optimism levels, after last few days of correction, indices are approaching / below 20 days moving average. At the same time, Asian stock markets (Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Malaysia, etc) are still struggling to recover gradually at moderate low optimism level but may need to follow the footstep of US.

In this article, Dr Tee will share 3 main strategies with 3 unique personalities for the current global stock markets, either short term trading or long term investing, both follow-trend and counter-trend.  Before that, let’s understand the main driver of stock and economic crisis: Covid-19 conditions locally and globally.

US has reported a few positive economic signals (eg. job market is not as bad as expected) but recovery phase would take longer time while stock market is back to high optimism level before Covid-19 crisis again.  Covid-19 condition in US shows very gradual drop in number of infected cases as social distancing may not be strictly enforced while many people could not wait to restart the economy. Based on projection, Covid-19 in US may need to wait until end of summer (around Aug 2020) to fade away. The positive signal is the number of new daily death cases are dropped to only about 1/3 of the peak, although number of new daily infected cases are still about 2/3 of peak cases. This implies the strain of Covid-19 is getting weaker after 5 months of pandemic.

At the same time, world number of infected Covid-19 cases are still increasing (7.5M cases), mainly due to high increment in a few high population countries such as Brazil and India which may be hard to balance between lockdown (minimize health crisis) and continuation of economy (minimize financial crisis). Some more healthy people may not mind take the risk to work as no income may be higher “risk” to the family. Again, positive signal is number of death cases are in declining mode globally.

For Singapore, most of the Covid-19 cases are within worker dormitories which are under control (few cases in the community) and very few death cases. Therefore, Singapore government has restarted economy in phases. There are even plans to start travel within the regions with countries having mild condition (eg. China). Malaysia has also restarted the economy, similar to many other global countries.

In short, Covid-19 condition is improving in many countries (at least within major economies: US, China, Japan, Europe), may fade away by end of summer. With restart of economy, the worst of monthly economic performance could be over (during last few months of global lockdown). However, each of the global government has to work hard to avoid Covid-19 induced short term economic crisis is extended into a longer term and bigger scale global financial crisis.

The most direct method would be economic stimulus plan, different names in each country, eg: Quantitative Easing (QE) in US which is unlimited in scale. As a result, there is a divergence between stock market (V-shape recovery) and economy (sluggish). When US stock markets are recovering back to the level before Covid-19 crisis (Nasdaq has even achieved new historical high of 10000 points), market starts to show correction.

Stock correction is healthy for longer term growth, similar to a person climbs up a hill, need some rests or slowing down in bumpy path to preserve the energy (峰回路转). However, potential “Double Top” pattern for US stock market at high optimism is still a big threat as no one would know the possible scales of correction: minor correction (less than 10%), major correction (10-20%), stock crisis (eg. 20-30% during Covid-19) or even global financial crisis (over 50%).

Therefore, it is important for a stock trader or investor to take action (Buy / Hold / Sell / Wait / Shorting) aligning with own personality. Here are 3 potential strategies for 3 unique personalities when there are potential signals of stock market correction (different levels):

1) Short Term Momentum / Cyclic Trading (trend-following)
A short term trader would exit progressively or reduce position with S.E.T. (Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices) trading plan. When stock market is back to bullish again for short term, can always re-enter the trading (acceptable even the price could be higher than the selling price). Selling a stock is taking an insurance for a trader to reduce the risk, especially when uptrend price is corrected below own risk tolerance level.

Friend of a trader is always the clear price trends and bonus is strong fundamental business (just in case a retail trader could not follow the trading, if forced to become a long term investor, at least the giant stock would give the protection). Of course, it is possible to apply reversed strategy to do shorting, same requirement of following trading plan but in a reversed way (eg. downtrend price with weak fundamental business, best with negative market news).

2) Long Term Growth Investing
A long term growth investor would either reduce position (if trend-following but price is corrected more than own risk level) to protect the capital gain or possible to hold (regardless of potential stock crisis) but need to ensure stock portfolio is well diversified, based on 10-20 growth giant stocks with strong business fundamental. When stock is back to bullish again, may consider to “Average Up” with multiple entries for longer term investor. 

For investor who could also trade, there is also an option for hedging (shorting for short term while holding to position for long term if not selling).

3) Long Term Dividend Investing

A long term dividend investor, if applying contrarian strategy (counter-trend to buy low in bearish stock market), possible to apply multiple entries to enter while stocks are falling, 10-25% (or X% defined by individual) price gap between each entry to maximize the dividend yield (especially for Asian stock market at lower optimism) but need to ensure stock portfolio is well diversified, based on 10-20 giant dividend/growth stocks with strong business fundamental.

This is “Average Down” method, suitable for unknown scale of stock crisis (minor correction or global financial crisis), no need to guess the bottom as consistent averaging in prices would help but an investor needs to follow the discipline to continue to buy low (only for giant stocks) while others are fearful. 

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It is possible for 3 strategies above to be integrated, eg. trend-following dividend investing or growth + dividend investing, etc. There are over 10 different stock trading or investing strategies but one has to adjust to fit own personality. For example, for market cycle investor, needs to follow market optimism closely as US is back to high optimism level (>75%).  Commodity stock investor (eg. oil & gas stock) needs to integrate different market cycles of stock market and commodity market.

Of course, the last possible option is do nothing all the time, regardless up or down in stock market: zero risk, zero reward.  A stock trader or investor has to learn to take action (Buy / Hold / Sell / Wait / Shorting) unless “Do Nothing” (Wait or Hold) is part of strategy.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 members.

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Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Value Investing Tagged: , , ,

Watching NASDAQ to 10000 Points (旁观者迷)

Posted on June 11, 2020 Written by
NASDAQ 10000 Points US Stock Market

10000 points tonight is an important milestone for Nasdaq (mainly technology stocks) as in Year 2000 Dotcom Bubble, it also fell down from “new” peak of 5000 points to about 1/3 of value. After 20 years later, the key difference is this time the driver is V-shape recovery after over 30% major correction which shows the power of “unlimited QE”.

US is more suitable for shorter term trading, especially momentum trading with support of greedy mass market. Trend-following may be required for some traders as optimism is back to high level for both NYSE and NASDAQ stock markets in US. Global stock markets (STI, KLCI, HSI, SSEC, DAX, etc) also recover well but not as bullish as US.

It may be hard to compare Apple (eg. US stock market) with Orange (eg. Asian stock market) but they are still connected as both are fruits (global stock market), therefore when demand for Apple is higher, likely demand for Orange may be higher as well.

At the same time, within each fruit, an investor should look for better Apple or better Orange as it may be confusing to apply the Orange criteria (eg. sweatness) on selection of Apple (eg. crunchy).

In short, you don’t have to like Apple or Orange but need to ensure their prices would be higher in future based on the timeframe of your interest.

Trading may not be suitable for everyone. Those who prefer to buy and forget may be more suitable for investing. There are a few who could invest and trade at the same time but applying 2 different strategies, even if the stock is the same.

When there is a reversal (eg. bear to bull), some would be happy (those who take actions to buy), some may feel sad (those who wait but now uncertain whether decision is right).

In fact, there is no need to worry as there is no right nor wrong in stock market. A trader or investor needs to have a trading plan or investing strategy as an “anchor” to position oneself (aligned with own personality), else will be drifted each day by the wave of stock market, confused with up or down until giddy, may make a “wrong” decision by following others who shout louder.

Covid-19 conditions (both # daily infected cases and death cases) are getting much better for major economies (US, China, Japan, Europe) and also in Singapore. If you follow Dr Tee articles and video education (www.ein55.com/blog) over the past 4 months since the pandemic started in Feb 2020, summer 2020 was a key factor and global Covid-19 trends have been reported to fade away by then.

With restart of economies in most global countries from June 2020, economy starts to show V-shape recovery. Oil price at low optimism starts to recover strongly after the negative oil price a few weeks ago, preparing for higher demand by the world after lockdown is over.

US job market is improving for May 2020, S&P 500 rises to another high of nearly 3200 points, could break historical high of 3300+ points if this momentum continues in June. Asia stock markets also recover gradually with less fear.

Warren Buffett is not wrong (selling Airlines stocks and bank stocks) as his actions are aligned with his own personality (sell when outlook is uncertain or beyond his knowledge) and this is only his partial stock portfolio, still holding lots of other stocks. So, even if stock market is truly recovering, Warren Buffett and Berkshire would benefit (rising in stock prices is a proof).

Those investors who follow Warren Buffett blindly (copy his actions and even extend to sell all stocks) are wrong as they don’t align the strategies with their own personalities, some even greedy to wait to buy all stocks at the lowest point (which no one knows), may end up missing the opportunity boat or given option to buy at much higher prices (旁观者迷).

There are 2 ways of analysis: relative and absolute way. Therefore, even for a bearish stock market or economy, some may view “less negative” as positive. This is similar to a weak business which should lose $1M yearly but when losing “only” $100k, it is considered positive.

Ideally economy should be strong to support stock market. However, during Covid-19 crisis, relative method may be applied.

Stock market is forward looking, therefore some traders prefer to look at price alone which could reflect most of the key market factors including emotions. A smart investor may combine business fundamental and trading together. The biggest enemy is usually ourselves, whether we are comfortable with the strategy, either short term trading or long term investing.

Analysts who have been bearish would keep quiet for a few weeks, then more posts will come out when there is correction over 10% again. Now, there will be more posts on bullish stock market. Readers would hear different views each time, eventually not able to take action at all if simply follow others.

There are always 2 views of market: bull or bear, that’s why for each transaction, there is always a pair of buyer and seller. Don’t follow analysts blindly. Instead, leverage on the views, do additional filtering, aligning with own personality.

No expert would know what may happen for tomorrow’s share price but in longer term, business with sustainable growth would have higher chance to make profits in business to support the rising price.

Since no one could see the future, a stock investor may need to apply probability investing during this uncertain period: position in 10-20 giant stocks (strikers / mid-fielders / defenders) with strategies (eg. momentum / growth / dividend / undervalue, etc) aligned with own personalities (eg. short term trading or long term / life investing), minimizing risks with multiple entries / exits.

It is fun to “watch” and cheer in the football game but at the end, observers may waste the time and money if not able to take even the first action nor having a clear strategy.

Running out of ideas of What Stocks to Buy? Read hundreds of articles by Dr Tee over the past few months of global stock crisis.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 members.

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Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Stock Market Tagged: , , ,

42 Singapore REITs & 16 Business Trusts (稳如泰山)

Posted on June 5, 2020 Written by
Singapore REITs, Business Trusts, Dividend Stocks

Singapore REITs are popular investment for passive income through stable dividend stocks. In this article, you will learn on how to invest in 21 giant stocks from 42 Singapore REITs and 16 Business Trusts with 3 key strategies (Striker / Mid-fielder / Defender) in 8 categories:

1) Retail REITs

2) Office REITs

3) Industrial REITs

4) Healthcare REITs

5) Diversified REITs

6) Data Center REIT

7) Hospitality REIT

8) Business Trusts

There are 6 Singapore REITs which are also Business Trusts, so total there are 42 + 16 – 6 = 52 Singapore REITs and Business Trusts as of current stock market. Currently, out of 30 STI Index stocks, 5 are REITs. Soon, SPH (SGX: T39) with declining trading market capitalization (lower share price and/or lower trading volume) will be replaced by Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U) as 6th REIT of STI.  CapitaMall Trust (SGX: C38U) will be merged with CapitaCom Trust (SGX: C61U) to form new CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) Reit, therefore free up 1 seat in 30 STI. In near future, 5 reserve list of STI are all REITs or Business Trust:

Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Suntec Reit (SGX: T82U), NetLink NBN Trust (SGX: CJLU), Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust (SGX: BUOU) and Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U).

It implies at least 10 out of future 30 STI components would be from REITs and Business Trust. Future STI ETF (SGX: ES3)/(SGX: G3B) would be a more defensive investing tool, more dividend income but growth could be limited due to nature of Singapore REITs.

Diversification through REITs ETF (SGX: FSTAS8670) may not be a good strategy as not all stocks selected by index or fund manager are considered giant REITs (based on Dr Tee criteria) and systematic risk such as global financial crisis could potentially correct the REITs prices by more than 50% (eg. 70% price drop in 2008-2009 subprime crisis and about 40% correction in 2020 Covid-19 crisis) if an investor simply buys and hold for long term.

By law, REITs have to redistribute 90% taxable income (from property rental income) back to shareholders in the form of dividend. Therefore, a retail investor could play the role of landlord of giant property (shopping malls, commercial buildings, hospitals, hotels, etc) with minimal capital (could be less than $1000), saving the hassle to buy/sell property (REIT manager would help), no need to deal with tenants or operations (property manager would help).  Singapore REITs are exempted from corporate tax, therefore an Singapore investor could gain extra 1-2% rental or dividend yield compared with overseas REITs.

Business Trust is not limited to property rental, could be any form of business and even a company has good track record of dividend payment, it is not a legal obligation to do pay dividend in future, especially when there is a potential business crisis (eg. Covid-19) which needs more cash reserve. Therefore, from the perspective of a dividend stock investor, Singapore REITs are more preferred than Business Trusts for passive income generation.

However, a REIT investor has to buy the right REIT which could grow in rental business (most important action), aligning own personality with 3 possible strategies:

1) Striker – trading or crisis investing (Buy Low Sell High), mainly for capital gains

2) Mid-fielder – medium term investing, mainly for capital gains (dividend income as bonus)

3) Defender – long term investing, mainly for dividend income (capital gains as bonus)

After confirming a REIT / Business Trust is a giant, then investor has to master the investment clock (When to Buy / Sell), depending on type of REITs.  The best time to invest in a defensive REIT is usually during global stock crisis (with condition that the rental business is not significantly affected) which could maximize both the dividend yield and also higher upside for capital gains.

Below are all the 52 Singapore REITs and Business Trusts based on the last price traded (4 June 2020), sorted by type of REITs with details of 3 key strategies (Striker / Mid-fielder / Defender) and 3 critical Fundamental Criteria:
1) ROE (a basic criteria for REIT, eg. ROE > 0% to ensure business not losing money),
2) Dividend Yield, DY (a criteria for dividend stocks, eg. DY > 3 – 5%, depending on strategy),
3) Price-to-Book (PB) ratio, Price/NAV (a bonus for REIT is undervalue, eg. PB < 1).

NoTickerROEDividend Yield (%)PB = Price /NAVTypeStrategy
1BHG Retail Reit (SGX: BMGU)11.46.40.7Retail 
2CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U)9.05.71.0RetailDefender
3CapitaLand Retail China Trust (SGX: AU8U)8.87.30.9RetailDefender
4Frasers Centrepoint Trust (SGX: J69U)8.34.71.2RetailDefender
5Lippo Malls Trust (SGX: D5IU)-0.715.40.7Retail 
6Sasseur Reit (SGX: CRPU)11.88.40.8Retail 
7SPH REIT (SGX: SK6U)6.15.90.9Retail 
8Starhill Global Reit (SGX: P40U)3.48.20.6RetailDefender
9United Hampshire US Reit (SGX: ODBU)4.1–0.789Retail 
10CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U)6.05.01.0OfficeDefender
11Elite Commercial REIT GBP (SGX: MXNU)––1.2Office 
12IREIT Global (SGX: UD1U)19.47.70.9OfficeMid-fielder
13Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT (SGX: CMOU)9.38.40.9Office 
14Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U)2.64.80.9OfficeDefender
15ManulifeReit USD (SGX: BTOU)3.87.21.0OfficeMid-fielder
16OUE Commercial Reit (SGX: TS0U)3.58.00.7Office 
17Prime US ReitUSD (SGX: OXMU)4.13.51.0Office 
18AIMS APAC Reit (SGX: O5RU)9.07.60.9Industrial 
19ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust (SGX: K2LU)-2.19.81.0Industrial 
20Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U)7.44.41.5IndustrialDefender
21EC World Reit (SGX: BWCU)9.58.40.8Industrial 
22ESR-REIT (SGX: J91U)-0.19.71.0Industrial 
23Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U)10.34.61.6IndustrialMid-fielder
24Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U)8.24.21.5IndustrialDefender
25Sabana Reit (SGX: M1GU)3.57.80.7Industrial 
26ARA Hospitality Trust USD (SGX: XZL)2.210.10.5Hospitality 
27Ascott Trust (SGX: HMN)5.17.20.8HospitalityStriker
28CDL Hospitality Trust (SGX: J85)6.18.20.7HospitalityStriker
29Eagle Hospitality Trust USD (SGX: LIW)18.225.30.2Hospitality 
30Far East Hospitality Trust (SGX: Q5T)3.67.20.6Hospitality 
31Frasers Hospitality Trust (SGX: ACV)3.48.90.7Hospitalit 
32First Reit (SGX: AW9U)5.712.10.7HealthcareStriker
33ParkwayLife Reit (SGX: C2PU)10.43.81.8HealthcareMid-fielder
34Cromwell Reit EUR (SGX: CNNU)8.38.90.9Diversified 
35Cromwell Reit SGD (SGX: CSFU)8.38.50.9Diversified 
36Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU)9.83.91.9DiversifiedMid-fielder
37Lendlease Reit (SGX: JYEU)––0.9Diversified 
38Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU)9.43.81.2DiversifiedMid-fielder
39Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (SGX: RW0U)2.67.70.7DiversifiedDefender
40Soilbuild Business Space Reit (SGX: SV3U)4.010.20.7Diversified 
41Suntec Reit (SGX: T82U)6.56.00.7Diversified 
42Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU)5.73.12.2Data CenterMid-fielder
43Accordia Golf Trust (SGX: ADQU)-17.06.40.8Business Trust 
44Ascendas India Trust (SGX: CY6U)18.24.61.3Business TrustDefender
45Asian Pay Tv Trust (SGX: S7OU)1.87.40.2Business Trust 
46Dasin Retail Trust (SGX: CEDU)-1.98.20.6Business Trust 
47FSL Trust (SGX: D8DU)5.029.30.5Business Trust 
48HPH Trust SGD (SGX: P7VU)2.011.90.3Business Trust 
49HPH Trust USD (SGX: NS8U)2.012.60.3Business Trust 
50Keppel Infrastructure Trust (SGX: A7RU)2.97.02.1Business Trust 
51NetLink NBN Trust (SGX: CJLU)2.75.01.4Business TrustMid-fielder
52RHT HealthTrust (SGX: RF1U)–145.50.9Business Trust 

The risk (and also opportunity) of REITs are cyclic stock prices, therefore each global stock crisis could be good opportunity to Buy Low for giant Defender REITs, maximizing dividend yields with multiple entries if diversification is needed during uncertain Global Financial Crisis. For Mid-fielder stocks, alignment with price trends are important for trading (momentum and cyclic / swing trading).  Covid-19 pandemic would disrupt the stable distribution of rental income for some REITs (eg. Retail, Office, Industrial, Hospitality) with reduced or delayed dividend for 6-12 months but it has less impact on longer term investors who could hold longer than 1 year.

We may group 52 Singapore REITs and Business Trusts in the following 8 categories with 21 selected giant stocks in 3 main roles (Striker / Mid-fielder / Defender).

1) Retail REITs

There are 9 Retail REITs listed in Singapore (some with overseas business, eg. in China, Hong Kong and US):

BHG Retail Reit (SGX: BMGU), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Retail China Trust (SGX: AU8U), Frasers Centrepoint Trust (SGX: J69U), Lippo Malls Trust (SGX: D5IU), Sasseur Reit (SGX: CRPU), SPHREIT (SGX: SK6U), Starhill Global Reit (SGX: P40U), United Hampshire US Reit (SGX: ODBU).

Retail REITs are usually cyclic in nature, tenants occupancy rate and rental rate mainly follow economic cycles and strength of local economy. 4 Giant Retail REITs are good choices as Defenders to collect dividend income: CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Retail China (SGX: AU8U), Frasers Centrepoint Trust (SGX: J69U), Starhill Global Reit (SGX: P40U).

2) Office REITs

There are 8 Office or Commercial REITs listed in Singapore (some with overseas business, eg. in US, UK and Europe):

CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Elite Commercial REIT (SGX: MXNU), IREIT Global (SGX: UD1U), Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT (SGX: CMOU), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), Manulife Reit (SGX: BTOU), OUE Commercial Reit (SGX: TS0U), Prime US Reit (SGX: OXMU).

Office REITs are usually cyclic in nature, tenants occupancy rate and rental rate mainly follow economic cycles and strength of local economy. 4 Giant Office REITs are good choices, 2 as Defenders to collect dividend income: CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U) and Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U) and 2 as Mid-fielders (both capital gains and dividend income in medium term trading): Manulife Reit (SGX: BTOU) and IREIT Global (SGX: UD1U).

3) Industrial REITs

There are 8 Industrial REITs listed in Singapore (some with overseas business, eg. in China and Asia Pacific):

AIMS APAC Reit (SGX: O5RU), ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust (SGX: K2LU), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), EC World Reit (SGX: BWCU), ESR-REIT (SGX: J91U), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Sabana Reit (SGX: M1GU).

Industrial REITs are usually cyclic in nature, tenants occupancy rate and rental rate mainly follow economic cycles and strength of local economy. 3 Giant Industrial REITs are good choices, 2 as Defenders to collect dividend income: Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U) and Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U) and 1 as Mid-fielder (both capital gains and dividend income in medium term): Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U).

4) Healthcare REITs

There are only 2 Healthcare REITs listed in Singapore (with local and overseas business, eg. in Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, Japan and), both are giant stocks:

First Reit (SGX: AW9U) as striker and ParkwayLife Reit (SGX: C2PU) as Mid-fielder.

Healthcare REITs are usually more defensive in rental business due to very long term agreement signed with tenants (hospitals which need stability in operation). First Reit used to be a Mid-fielder with strong growth but investors confidence are affected with bearish outlook of sponsor, Lippo Group, therefore new role as a Striker could be more suitable for crisis stock investing. Parkwaylife REIT is much more stable with support of strong sponsor, IHH Healthcare (SGX: Q0F) but dividend yield is limited, therefore more suitable as a Mid-fielder.

5) Diversified REITs

There are 8 Diversified REITs listed in Singapore (some with overseas business, eg. in China, Asia Pacific and Europe):

Cromwell Reit EUR (SGX: CNNU) / Cromwell Reit SGD (SGX: CSFU), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), Lendlease Reit (SGX: JYEU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (SGX: RW0U), Soilbuild Business Space REIT (SGX: SV3U), Suntec Reit (SGX: T82U).

Diversified REITs have different types of REITs within the REIT portfolio (eg. Office / industrial / retail, some are integrated of smaller REITs, eg. Frasers REITs, through Merging & Acquisition), therefore usually cyclic in nature, tenants occupancy rate and rental rate mainly follow economic cycles and strength of local economy. 3 Giant Industrial REITs are good choices, 1 as defender to collect dividend income: Mapletree NAC Trust (SGX: RW0U) and 2 as Mid-fielders (both capital gains and dividend income in medium term): Frasers L&C Trust (SGX: BUOU) and Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU.

6) Data Center REIT

There is only 1 Data Center REIT in Singapore (with business locally and globally), also a Mid-fielder Giant Stock: Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU).

Technically, Mapletree Industrial Trust, MIT (SGX: ME8U) has partial business in Data Center as MIT has 40% ownership (another 60% by parent company, Mapletree Investment) of Mapletree Redwood Data Centre Trust (MRDCT) which has 14 data centers in US since 2017. So far, Mapletree group (Temasek as sponsor) has 4 REITs listed sequentially over the past decade. So, there is no surprise if MRDCT may be listed in future when business is more stable one day. Currently, an investor may invest indirectly through MIT, which is an Industrial REIT including partial business in Data Centers.

Data Center REITs are usually more defensive due to longer term agreement signed with tenants (could be local government and big companies with confidential customer identities due to sensitive nature of database) which may view stability and security as more important factors than cost of rental. With popularity in internet (driven further by 5G) and tremendous growth in database required globally, demand for data centers at safer locations / countries would be increasing.  Both Keppel DC Reit and MIT are younger REITs, more suitable to position as Mid-fielders, aiming mainly for capital gains (dividend is only a bonus), may evolve into growth investing in future.

7) Hospitality REIT

There are 6 Hospitality REITs (some with business overseas, eg. global hotels chain) which also have Business Trust to form Stapled Securities due to requirement of business model:

ARA Hospitality Trust USD (SGX: XZL), Ascott Trust (SGX: HMN), CDL Hospitality Trust (SGX: J85), Eagle Hospitality Trust USD (SGX: LIW), Far East Hospitality Trust (SGX: Q5T), Frasers Hospitality Trust (SGX: ACV)

Hospitality REITs are mostly considered as crisis sector (especially for hotel / resort business) due to Covid-19 pandemic, few international visitors during this period. Without strong sponsor, a REIT could be in trouble. Eagle HTrust is a good example, stock is suspended after less than 1 year of IPO (about 80% capital loss for a stock investor), with big losses in business, default of loan and additional sell down during Covid-19 crisis as last straw which breaks the camel’s back. Usually for a young IPO stock without stable business record, there is always a risk that business may not be sustainable. So, a proven REIT with higher price could be more valuable than a young REIT with lower price.

2 Giant Hospitality REITs may be considered, both as Strikers (crisis investing stocks) as they are supported by strong sponsors despite weak business during Covid-19: Ascott Trust (SGX: HMN) is supported by CapitaLand (SGX: C31), while CDL HTrust (SGX: J85) is supported by City Development (SGX: C09). An investor may need to wait for quarterly or semi-annual financial report to understand the real impact of Covid-19 during Q1-Q2/2020 on Hospitality REITs. There are other non-crisis REITs (or limited impact of Covid-19) which an investor may consider, there is no need to take risk on Striker stocks if it goes against the personality of investors who may aim for defensive investing with stable dividend income.

8) Business Trusts

There are 10 pure Business Trusts listed in Singapore which dividend payments are not protected by law:

Accordia Golf Trust (SGX: ADQU), Ascendas India Trust (SGX: CY6U), Asian Pay Tv Trust (SGX: S7OU), Dasin Retail Trust (SGX: CEDU), FSL Trust (SGX: D8DU), HPH Trust SGD (SGX: P7VU), HPH Trust USD (SGX: NS8U), Keppel Infrastructure Trust (SGX: A7RU), NetLink NBN Trust (SGX: CJLU), RHT Health Trust (SGX: RF1U).

There are a few weak Business Trusts with very high dividend yield which are potential value traps, eg. FSL Trust (29% dividend yield). Dividend yield is always computed based on past dividend record and a high number could be derived due to weak business with very bearish share price. Buy Low may not able to Sell High for a junk stock as share prices would become lower. So, high dividend yield has to combine with a giant dividend stock or giant REIT (either Mid-fielder or Defender strategy), following Dr Tee criteria.

2 Giant Business Trusts with strong sponsors may be considered: Ascendas India Trust (SGX: CY6U) as a Defender (property trust in India) is supported by CapitaLand (SGX: C31), while NetLink NBN Trust (SGX: CJLU) as a Mid-fielder is supported by Singtel (SGX: Z74). Ascendas-iTrust is still property related, therefore even it is a Business Trust, asset quality is high. However for NetLink Trust, it is based on owner and operator of Singapore Fiber Network (prices regulated by authority, a form of monopoly) which technology may evolve in future, eg, towards 5G. So, close review of future technology and monitoring of financial performance are required. Therefore, young technology Business Trust of NetLink Trust, is more suitable for role as a Mid-fielder.

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There are 140 Property Stocks in Singapore excluding 52 REITs and Business Trusts (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
3Cnergy (SGX: 502), A-Smart (SGX: BQC), AEI^ (SGX: AWG), AIMS Property (SGX: BVP), APAC Realty (SGX: CLN), Abterra (SGX: L5I), Acromec (SGX: 43F), Amara (SGX: A34), Amcorp Global (SGX: S9B), AnnAik (SGX: A52), Astaka (SGX: 42S), BBR (SGX: KJ5), BRC Asia (SGX: BEC), BlackGoldNatural (SGX: 41H), Boldtek (SGX: 5VI), Bonvests (SGX: B28), Boustead (SGX: F9D), Boustead Projects (SGX: AVM), Bukit Sembawang (SGX: B61), Bund Center (SGX: BTE), CSC (SGX: C06), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Casa (SGX: C04), Chemical Industries (SGX: C05), China Great Land (SGX: D50), China International (SGX: BEH), China Real Estate (SGX: 5RA), China Yuanbang (SGX: BCD), Chip Eng Seng (SGX: C29), City Development (SGX: C09), DISA (SGX: 532), Debao Property (SGX: BTF), ETC Singapore (SGX: 1C0), Edition (SGX: 5HG), EnGro Corporation (SGX: S44), Fraser and Neave F&N (SGX: F99), Far East Orchard (SGX: O10), Figtree (SGX: 5F4), First Sponsor (SGX: ADN), Fragrance (SGX: F31), Frasers Property (SGX: TQ5), GYP Properties (SGX: AWS), Gallant Venture (SGX: 5IG), Golden Energy (SGX: AUE), Goodland (SGX: 5PC), GuocoLand (SGX: F17), HL Global Enterprises (SGX: AVX), Hatten Land (SGX: PH0), Heeton (SGX: 5DP), Hiap Hoe (SGX: 5JK), Hiap Seng (SGX: 510), Ho Bee Land (SGX: H13), Hock Lian Seng (SGX: J2T), Hong Fok (SGX: H30), Hong Lai Huat (SGX: CTO), Hong Leong Asia (SGX: H22), Hongkong Land USD (SGX: H78), Hor Kew (SGX: BBP), Huationg Global (SGX: 41B), Hwa Hong (SGX: H19), IPC Corp (SGX: AZA), ISOTeam (SGX: 5WF), Imperium Crown (SGX: 5HT), Jasper Investments (SGX: FQ7), KOP (SGX: 5I1), KSH (SGX: ER0), Keong Hong (SGX: 5TT), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), King Wan (SGX: 554), Koh Brothers (SGX: K75), Koon (SGX: 5DL), Kori (SGX: 5VC), LHN (SGX: 41O), Ley Choon (SGX: Q0X), Lian Beng (SGX: L03), Low Keng Huat (SGX: F1E), Lum Chang (SGX: L19), MMP Resources (SGX: F3V), MYP (SGX: F86), Metro (SGX: M01), OIO (SGX: KUX), OKH Global (SGX: S3N), OKP (SGX: 5CF), OneApex (SGX: 5SY), Oxley (SGX: 5UX), PSL (SGX: BLL), Pacific Century (SGX: P15), Pacific Star Development (SGX: 1C5), Pan Hong (SGX: P36), Pavillon (SGX: 596), Perennial Holdings (SGX: 40S), Pollux Properties (SGX: 5AE), PropNex (SGX: OYY), Raffles Infrastructure (SGX: LUY), Regal International (SGX: UV1), Renaissance United (SGX: I11), Rich Capital (SGX: 5G4), Roxy-Pacific (SGX: E8Z), Ryobi Kiso (SGX: BDN), SHS (SGX: 566), SLB Development (SGX: 1J0), SP Corporation (SGX: AWE), Sasseur Reit (SGX: CRPU), Second Chance (SGX: 528), Sin Heng Mach (SGX: BKA), Sinarmas Land (SGX: A26), SingHaiyi (SGX: 5H0), SingHoldings (SGX: 5IC), Singapore-eDev (SGX: 40V), Sinjia Land (SGX: 5HH), Soilbuild Construction Group (SGX: S7P), Starland (SGX: 5UA), Straits Trading (SGX: S20), Swee Hong (SGX: QF6), Sysma (SGX: 5UO), TA (SGX: PA3), TTJ (SGX: K1Q), Tai Sin Electric (SGX: 500), Thakral (SGX: AWI), Thomson Medical Group (SGX: A50), Tiong Seng (SGX: BFI), Top Global (SGX: BHO), Tosei (SGX: S2D), Transcorp (SGX: T19), Tritech (SGX: 5G9), UIC (SGX: U06), UOA (SGX: EH5), UOL (SGX: U14), USP Group (SGX: BRS), Vibrant Group (SGX: BIP), Wee Hur (SGX: E3B), Wing Tai (SGX: W05), Yanlord Land (SGX: Z25), Yeo Hiap Seng (SGX: Y03), Ying Li International (SGX: 5DM), Yoma Strategic (SGX: Z59), Yongmao (SGX: BKX), Yongnam (SGX: AXB), Yorkshine (SGX: MR8).

Not all Singapore REITs or Business Trusts are giant stocks, some could be junk stocks (eg. making losses or asking investors for reserved passive incomes through rights issues). Even for a giant stock, it requires at least yearly review with Dr Tee criteria to ensure it is still a giant stock or a change in strategy may be required (eg. crisis stock investing with Striker role if there is any potential high risk). Similarly, those stocks which are not highlighted in this article, some could be marginal giant stocks, may obtain the giant stock title one day, which worth longer term investing or trading.

Although there are 21 giant REITs and Business Trusts listed in this article (3 roles of Striker / Mid-fielder / Defender), not all stocks are suitable for everyone. A REIT investor has to further select the right type of giant stock to align with own personality to be successful in short trading, medium term investing or long term investing, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy / Sell.

Ideally, a smart investor should form a dream team stock portfolio (striker / mid-fielder / defender) with 10-20 giant stocks from over 3 sectors and 3 countries.  REIT sector may contribute 1-2 stocks while it is important to diversify with more sectors (eg. Healthcare, Banking & Finance, F&B, Technology, Oil & Gas, Property / non-REIT, etc).

Since some REITs have overseas business, knowledge of Forex (eg. USD/SGD, SGD/IDR, etc) would be critical.  A qualified REIT investor should also understand property market cycle, macroeconomy behavior, integrating with dividend investing or growth investing or cyclic / momentum trading.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 members.

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)
Filed Under: Forex, Fundamental Analysis, Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Trading, Value Investing Tagged: , , , ,

Dr Tee Video Education: Divergence of Stock and Economy (股票与经济：背道而驰之谜)

Posted on May 16, 2020 Written by
divergence of stock and economy

In this Dr Tee 2-hr video education (Mystery of Divergence in Stock and Economy ), you will learn:
1) How to position with different direction in global stock and economy.
2) Master 3 key economic indicators for global economy (US, Singapore, China, Europe).
3) Mixed signals in investment clock of global stock markets, comparing US, Singapore, Hong Kong & China.
4) Technical Analysis of Coronavirus by country with stage of virus life cycle and estimated ending period.
5) Defensive Investing Strategies during Stock Crisis.

Here is English Version of Dr Tee Video Course (Chinese version is also available as Dr Tee is bilingual). Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks. Collect 3 extra bonuses here.

English Video: https://youtu.be/Gs3tsbncBS4

在这Dr Tee 90分钟教育视频（股票与经济：背道而驰之谜），您可学习：
1） 学习定位全球股票与经济各奔东西。
2） 掌握三大经济指标，把脉环球经济（美国、新加坡、中国、欧洲）。
3） 各国新冠病毒技术分析：疫情周期，预估结束点。
4） 投资时钟的交叉讯号（短期、中期、长期）：全球、美国、新加坡、香港、中国。
5） 危机入市的防御性投资策略。

这儿是 Dr Tee 华语视频 （英语视频也已完成，Dr Tee 双语皆行）。请欣赏鄙作，留言求进步。您可订阅 Dr Tee Youtube 频道(Ein Tee)，链接未来投资视频。这里得额外三红利。

Chinese Video (华语视频): https://youtu.be/uaPHWaRFuEM

This defensive investing strategy may be applied to 30 Singapore STI index component stocks (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

This powerful strategy can be extended to global giant stocks including 30 Malaysia Bursa KLCI index component stocks (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
CIMB (Bursa: 1023) CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BERHAD, DIALOG (Bursa: 7277) DIALOG GROUP BERHAD, DIGI (Bursa: 6947) DIGI.COM BERHAD, GENM (Bursa: 4715) GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD, GENTING (Bursa: 3182) GENTING BERHAD, HAPSENG (Bursa: 3034) HAP SENG CONSOLIDATED BERHAD, HARTA (Bursa: 5168) HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BERHAD, HLBANK (Bursa: 5819) HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD, HLFG (Bursa: 1082) HONG LEONG FINANCIAL GROUP BERHAD, IHH (Bursa: 5225) IHH HEALTHCARE BERHAD, IOICORP (1961) IOI CORPORATION BERHAD, KLCC (Bursa: 5235SS) KLCC PROPERTY HOLDINGS BERHAD, KLK (Bursa: 2445) KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BERHAD, MAXIS (Bursa: 6012) MAXIS BERHAD, MAYBANK (Bursa: 1155) MALAYAN BANKING BERHAD, MISC (Bursa: 3816) MISC BERHAD, NESTLE (Bursa: 4707) NESTLE MALAYSIA BERHAD, PBBANK (Bursa: 1295) PUBLIC BANK BERHAD, PCHEM (Bursa: 5183) PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BERHAD, PETDAG (Bursa: 5681) PETRONAS DAGANGAN BHD, PETGAS (Bursa: 6033) PETRONAS GAS BERHAD, PMETAL (Bursa: 8869) PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDINGS BERHAD, PPB (Bursa: 4065) PPB GROUP BERHAD, RHBBANK (Bursa: 1066) RHB BANK BERHAD, SIME (Bursa: 4197) SIME DARBY BERHAD, SIMEPLT (Bursa: 5285) SIME DARBY PLANTATION BERHAD, TENAGA (Bursa: 5347) TENAGA NASIONAL BHD, TM (Bursa: 4863) TELEKOM MALAYSIA BERHAD, TOPGLOV (7113) TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.

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There are over 1500 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar.

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Stock Market Tagged: , , , , , , , , ,

5 Stages of Stock Market Patient in Pandemic (心中有数)

Posted on May 7, 2020 Written by
stock market Singapore US Hong Kong China Europe Germany World Coronavirus

Global stock market so far has experienced 6 months of Covid-19 pandemic (Dec 2019 – May 2020), struggling between greed and fear, falling badly (20-40%) during initial fear of Coronavirus, then V-shape recovery (recover more than half of earlier correction) with support of unlimited QE or stimulus plans by global government, currently uncertain (gradual sideways stock movement) due to uncertain ending of global Coronavirus (especially for US) with worry of historical worst monthly economic data since Great Depression 1929 may become a norm beyond recovery.

There is a mismatch among stock market, world economy and Coronavirus conditions. Main reason is stock market is forward looking (usually a few months ahead of time), past or current news (eg. Coronavirus condition) or predictable outcome (eg. worst economic data during lockdown) has been considered in stock prices.

China is the first country to start and end Coronavirus, restarting economy gradually now, serving as leading indicator for the world (eg. Korea, Europe, US, Singapore, etc, which hope to restart economy as well). World is following similar footsteps of China for both Coronavirus cycle (start, peak to end / minimal), stock market cycle (down and up) and economy cycle (down and possibly up). Likely scenario for world economy and stock market would be 5-Stages models, similar to a patient:

stock market Singapore US Hong Kong China Europe Germany World Coronavirus

1) Early Symptom (Start of Coronavirus Pandemic), Dec 2019 – Jan 2020

During the initial phase of Coronavirus outbreak, the stock market was not fearful due to limited spreading to the world (mostly concentrated in China) and world economy is still not affected. So, the stock correction was limited, mainly within infected Asia countries in Dec 2019 – Jan 2020. US controls over 50% of stock value, was not affected in this period, even achieving high optimism in stock market in Jan 2020.

2) Heart Attack (Lockdown), Feb-Mar 2020

When Coronavirus was spread to Europe and US, which contributes greatly to world stock market, there was a crash (20-40% stock correction) in Feb – Mar 2020 for global stock market, mainly due to the fear with stock market at higher optimism before the pandemic was declared. The global stock crisis was complicated by crude oil price war between OPEC (Saudi) and non-OPEC (Russia), extending the fear from stock market to oil market.

Most of the countries in the world started to under lockdown to stop the spreading of Covid-19, the fear of people and business (not able to operate) is similar to a patient under heart attack without blood supply, falling down suddenly, not able to function at all. Global government have to do blood (cash) transfusion to save the patient (local economy), eg. supporting the salary of employees, giving loans to business in crisis sectors (transportation, F&B, consumer, etc).

3) Wake up from Coma (First light at the end of tunnel), Mar 2020

After experiencing the worst month and worst day (23 Mar 2020), global stock market started to recover, similar to a patient wake up from 1 month of coma, seeing hope in future. There was still no real proof of economy recovery (in fact, still bad) and Coronavirus was still severe but since there was no new fear factor (thanks to world news agency and social media for effort in spreading all possible bad news each day), stock market responded ahead of time with a reversal, hopeful of future, especially with support of local government.

No one is able to predict the future, but stock market prices could reflect the consensus of global stock investors after struggling between greed and fear.  However, the price trend was not smooth, especially for daily stock market which was still volatile.

4) Initial Recovery (Economy Support), Apr-May 2020

Despite Q1/2020 economy data is poor (predictable due to global lockdown for about 2 months for each country), the global stock market experienced V-shape recovery in Apr 2020, as there is clearer light at the end of tunnel, less daily new cases of Coronavirus infection in most countries (US and world are stable at peak cases, having high chance to improve in condition) and more government subsidies for business and individual with financial crisis.

The daily global stock market prices start to cross above 20 days moving averages, the first technical indicator to show at least technical rebound in share prices. This helps to motivate more global traders to start entering stock market again. The stock market (bullish for short term) is deviated from monthly economic data (bearish for short term, eg. GDP, PMI, unemployment rates, etc).  Eventually the gap between stock and economy would be narrower after clearer signals on Coronavirus condition, especially whether it may end in summer 2020.

5) Full Recovery / Economy Restart, Jun 2020 and beyond

When economy is restarted for each country (started for China and Korea, some EU countries, more countries in the world including Singapore will follow), due to low economic monthly data during lockdown period, there would be strong month-to-month relative rebound. Statistics could be an illusion as comparison is between 2 sets of data at 2 conditions (eg. before/after crisis, before/after economy restart, etc), therefore would generate a dramatic difference.

The key is whether a patient could fully recover to function normally. Similarly, whether global stock market could back to full strength again, depends on whether global Coronavirus may end or fade away in summer (hottest period, higher chance to end the pandemic). If yes, economy could be restarted smoothly, global investor confidence could be restored, injured business could recover in a few quarters, even airlines could start to fly again (lower capacity but able to survive on its own).

If not, Coronavirus may continue for another 1 more year until an effective vaccine is developed or more deadly strain may come back in next winter, then the world would need to struggle with slower economy recovery. when dragging over 1 year, world economy may end up similar to Great Depression 1929 as there is limited financial assistance could be given by local government. Although US has “unlimited” QE but this may be a time bomb for bigger future crisis with high national debt.

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There is no need to predict the future which is not predictable in nature. A long term investor could protect oneself with a strong portfolio of 10-20 giant stocks, ideally some could provide stable passive income with dividend to last through winter time and some are supported by growing business (eg. technology, healthcare, etc) which are not affected much by pandemic crisis.

For counter-trend investor, multiple entries strategies may be applied for capital allocation (eg. 10 x 10%, 5 x 20%, 3 x 33%, etc) to take advantage of each major correction in giant stock prices at low optimism due to market fear. A follow-trend trader could also benefit from stock crisis by following the stock market trend (eg. clearer reversal signal from bear to bull, trading timeframe based on personality), protected by S.E.T. (Stop Loss, Entry, Target Prices) plan with position sizing.  As for follow-trend investor, one may integrate giant stocks selection with timing to buy/sell aligned with trading (trend-following), to have the best of 2 worlds (fundamental and technical).

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 members.

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)
Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market Tagged: , , , , , , ,

5 Genting Group Casino Stocks (神机妙算)

Posted on April 30, 2020 Written by
Genting Gerhad casino stocks Malaysia Singapore Hong Kong Plantation

Genting Group is a famous regional casino with 50 years of history, started in Malaysia (Genting Highland), then extending to whole world, including Singapore, UK and US, currently aiming for Japan casino license.  Usually there is no certainty in a business but casino is a unique sector which is almost guaranteed to win due to the “unfair” design of games (神机妙算) in favour of the house if there are positive incoming tourists in the region with supporting local government.

Casino stocks are usually cyclic in nature as business is dependent on economy condition, especially on wealthy gamblers (VIP and premium members) which may have more capital for gambling when stock market is bullish or vice versa.

Read the article further to understand the potential of Genting Group, both risks and opportunities, not learning only 1 but all 5 Genting stocks: Genting Berhad, Genting Malaysia, Genting Singapore, Genting Hong Kong, Genting Plantation.

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Genting Berhad is the parent stock, owning other 4 subsidiaries Genting companies with 4 distinct businesses:

1) Genting Berhad (Bursa: 3182) – Malaysia Giant Blue Chip Stock

2) Genting Malaysia (Bursa: 4715) – Malaysia Giant Casino Stock

3) Genting Singapore (SGX: G13) – Singapore Giant CasinoStock

4) Genting Hong Kong (HKEx: 678) – Hong Kong Cruise / ResortStock

5) Genting Plantations (Bursa: 2291) – Malaysia Giant Palm Oil / Property Stock

Genting Group main business is related to casino (main focus of this article). It diversifies business into plantation / property (through Genting Plantations, a giant stock but affected by low optimism palm oil prices) and cruise / resort (through Genting Kong Hong, a weak fundamental stock, would get worse during Coronavirus crisis).

Genting casino business depends on licenses issued by local country: monopoly in Malaysia, duopoly in Singapore (another casino is MBS – Marina Bay Sands), competing with many others in UK (the largest casino operator) and US. Despite casino is a “sure win” business, it requires huge capex in building the casino and integrated resort, paying high tax to local government and business is dependent on tourism (eg. casino business is badly affected for at least 2 months without income during global lockdown).

An investor may invest directly in Genting Berhad (parent stock) if requires more diversification of businesses and also casino business over the world (not dependent on certain country). Here, we would focus on 2 casino stocks in 2 countries, Genting Malaysia (which includes casino in Malaysia, UK, US) and Genting Singapore (which includes casino in Singapore and possibly Japan if license is obtained).

2) Genting Malaysia (Bursa: 4715) – Malaysia Giant Casino Stock

The founder of Genting is Mr Lim Goh Tong (林梧桐) who was already a successful businessman before taking high risks in building the first casino in Malaysia without government assistance in 1960s. During the construction of Genting Highland resort (which later becomes a casino), he nearly died 6 times in various unexpected accidents. He is awarded the only casino license (more than 50 years till now), a legend in Malaysia history. 

When Dr Tee was still a small kid, I remember my first trip in life was around 9 years old to Genting Highland. Of course, I could not enter casino as a child.  After growing up, I have been to casino all over the world: US (Las Vegas, Atlantic City), Malaysia (finally), Macau (a few there, see earlier article in my trip report to Hong Kong / Macau), Australia (Melbourne, Brisbane), etc, except for Singapore (well, there is admission fee for local Singapore people).  I like to visit casino but I seldom gamble (similar to windows shopping) because I understand lower probability of winning for most games, only those who are lucky may win eventually (with condition to stop gambling for the rest of life after the win). Instead, I like to watch the reaction of gamblers, 9/10 are not smiling, likely losing money, trying to gamble more to win back the money.  

Stock “investing” with stock tips or rumour or “insider news” is similar to gambling. A smart stock investor has to firstly understand the business (both risks and opportunities), sector prospect and stock market outlook for country and even the whole world. Let’s learn step by step here.

Genting Malaysia is a giant casino stock, business has been stable over the past 10 years, growing in revenue but stagnant in net profit, partly due to higher tax and also global expansion plans with more casino. It could generate steady cash flow (due to unlimited greed of gamblers who volunteer to donate or contribute money unknowingly) and having a culture to pay dividend which is growing each year (current dividend yield is 6.3%).

Of course, cash flow of Genting worldwide casino would be reduced by at least 2/12 months during the global lockdown, 20% or even more deduction in Year 2020.  The situation would improve gradually when Coronavirus has subsided over the next few months. It is hard to stop an addicted gambler from gambling for 2 months, likely the person may double the capital for gambling next time when Coronavirus fear is over. It is a sad social issue why some people are against gambling as it could destroy a family, although it also brings additional national revenue.

Over the past few years with weaker Malaysia stock market, Genting Malaysia has dropped more than 50% in share prices (low in last few months of global stock crisis is comparable to 11 years low in Year 2009), currently at low optimism < 25%, aligning with bearish KLCI Index in Malaysia (recovering in last few weeks). Both Genting Berhad and Genting Malaysia are 2 of 30 KLCI component stocks in Malaysia. More importantly, casino business has 50 years of history in Malaysia, the monopoly business would continue to be a strong economic moat for Genting Malaysia. When KLCI recovers, both Genting Malaysia and Genting Berhad would get more support in uptrend share prices.

3) Genting Singapore (SGX: G13) – Singapore Giant CasinoStock

Singapore took a long time to finally accept casino operating in the island.  Many years ago, Singapore gamblers have to go overseas (nearest is cruise in international sea or Genting Highland) when nature calls. Now, they could gamble within the island (local people has additional restrictions such as admission fee but probably could only stop some people such as Dr Tee from visiting), either in Resort World Sentosa (RWS, belongs to Genting Singapore) or MBS (belongs to Las Vegas Sands, NYSE: LVS, another overseas casino stock with reasonable business fundamental).  This way, at least the losses of gamblers could be recycled to help the Singapore needy people (through government tax) and also Singapore investors (who invest in Genting Singapore).

In fact, gamblers of Genting Singapore are mostly from overseas, eg. China, Malaysia and regional countries. So, lockdown in the regional during Coronavirus pandemic would definitely affect the Genting Singapore business.  During the last few months of global stock crisis, Genting Singapore share price is corrected by about 40%, low of 51 cent/share is 11 years low since Year 2009 (last Global Financial Crisis). Currently Genting Singapore is still at low optimism < 25%, aligning with bearish STI Index in Singapore (recovering in last few weeks). Genting Singapore is 1 of 30 STI component stocks in Singapore, trends of prices are well aligned with country and global stock market due to better outlook of Coronavirus condition.

Singapore government has granted both Genting Singapore (RWS) and MBS to expand further in future with more investment in non-gaming infrastructures to exchange for exclusive casino licenses till year 2030.  Building of integrated resort and other new tourist attractions (capex for casino companies) would help to attract more overseas tourists to Singapore. So, this is a positive long term plan but will take up a lot of cash (capex) from Genting Singapore which may reduce the free cash flow and dividend for the next 10 years.  The application of casino license in Japan is both a risk and opportunity for Genting Singapore as the share prices will be up or down, depending on the unpredictable outcome.  Regional expansion is a good move, especially in related casino and integrated resort business. For Genting Singapore and most casino, main revenue generator is gaming business (over 70%, especially VIP and premium members). “Integrated resort” is mainly a way of marketing to attract more tourists to come, which some of them would drop by casino during free time, contributing some money to local economy through gambling.

Both Genting Singapore and Genting Malaysia are cyclic in nature for share prices, therefore buying casino stocks at lower optimism prices in bearish economy would have higher upside potential as casino business is more defensive in nature (assuming Coronavirus pandemic would end eventually, gambles coming back again). However, it is more suitable for investors with stronger holding power because what if economic condition is beyond recovery (eg. permanent job loss, lower productivity with negative GDP, etc), stock market may fall to a new low during global financial crisis (of course, gamblers would continue to gamble, especially when they have limited money, thinking casino is the quickest place to make money). Genting Group has good culture of dividend payment over the decades, the same Lim family (Chairman is son of founder, Lim Kok Thay) would help to support the stock investors with 5-6% dividend yield (assuming casino may lose 50% gamblers, still have 3% dividend yield) during the winter time.

=============================

So, gambling in casino is to give money to casino (not acceptable). However, investing in casino stock is to share the profits of gambling with casino and contributing high tax to local government to help the needy people (could be considered). However, not all casino stocks are good, therefore careful selection is important. In fact, there is another casino giant stock (the owner is also the Top 10 richest person in Malaysia, same list as Lim Kok Thay, boss of Genting Group) listed in Hong Kong, even stronger than Genting casino business.  I won’t mention here, interested readers may do a google of Top 10 richest person in Malaysia and their related businesses.

There are 30 STI index component stocks including Genting Singapore (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

There are 30 Malaysia Bursa KLCI index component stocks including Genting Berhard and Genting Malaysia (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
CIMB (Bursa: 1023) CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BERHAD, DIALOG (Bursa: 7277) DIALOG GROUP BERHAD, DIGI (Bursa: 6947) DIGI.COM BERHAD, GENM (Bursa: 4715) GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD, GENTING (Bursa: 3182) GENTING BERHAD, HAPSENG (Bursa: 3034) HAP SENG CONSOLIDATED BERHAD, HARTA (Bursa: 5168) HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BERHAD, HLBANK (Bursa: 5819) HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD, HLFG (Bursa: 1082) HONG LEONG FINANCIAL GROUP BERHAD, IHH (Bursa: 5225) IHH HEALTHCARE BERHAD, IOICORP (1961) IOI CORPORATION BERHAD, KLCC (Bursa: 5235SS) KLCC PROPERTY HOLDINGS BERHAD, KLK (Bursa: 2445) KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BERHAD, MAXIS (Bursa: 6012) MAXIS BERHAD, MAYBANK (Bursa: 1155) MALAYAN BANKING BERHAD, MISC (Bursa: 3816) MISC BERHAD, NESTLE (Bursa: 4707) NESTLE MALAYSIA BERHAD, PBBANK (Bursa: 1295) PUBLIC BANK BERHAD, PCHEM (Bursa: 5183) PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BERHAD, PETDAG (Bursa: 5681) PETRONAS DAGANGAN BHD, PETGAS (Bursa: 6033) PETRONAS GAS BERHAD, PMETAL (Bursa: 8869) PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDINGS BERHAD, PPB (Bursa: 4065) PPB GROUP BERHAD, RHBBANK (Bursa: 1066) RHB BANK BERHAD, SIME (Bursa: 4197) SIME DARBY BERHAD, SIMEPLT (Bursa: 5285) SIME DARBY PLANTATION BERHAD, TENAGA (Bursa: 5347) TENAGA NASIONAL BHD, TM (Bursa: 4863) TELEKOM MALAYSIA BERHAD, TOPGLOV (Bursa: 7113) TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.

It is better to learn how to fish (investing), instead of waiting for the fishes (stock investing ideas). Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

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Wait for Durian to Drop in Stock Crisis 榴莲忘返

Posted on April 2, 2020 Written by
durian stock crisis

Investing in global stock crisis is similar to wait for durian to fall (best if other people’s durian tree). It is fine to wait for durians to drop, eg. DBS Bank (SGX: D05) below $10/share or giant stocks below low optimism level, but if there is a small durian (eg. DBS below $15/share) comfortable to oneself along the way (so low that everyone could reach), may take one first, no need to wait for the biggest durian in the world as luck may not be there all the time (eg. buying at the lowest price).

This way, at least when the durian waiting game is over (Coronavirus fear), each investor has a gift from heaven for investment during crisis.

DBS Bank (SGX: D05) below $10/share or OCBC Bank (SGX: O39) below $5/share is as if durian drops down, some “abnormal” contrarian investors would start to enter. Every 10+ years, this DBS durian only has chance to drop, currently not ripe yet. Other giant stocks fruits (may not as tasty as durian) start to ripe already, hanging low, waiting for investors to pluck with a low price. But some worry the price of future durians may drop further, so still waiting for lower price. Question is durian may stop to drop one day, no one know when is the day, so need to take calculated risk at certain point, otherwise need to accept possibility of missing the opportunity boat one day.

Usually summer time around Jun-Aug is durian season here, perhaps implying more opportunities then. Coronavirus may end by summer for stock market to recover or pandemic may continue longer to cause global financial crisis. Stock investment is similar to wait for durian, must eventually take action (Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait, Shorting), otherwise one may be still empty handed after the season is over (榴莲忘返).

Cash is king when used at the right time. The key is to define the “right time” for everyone, aligned to own personality.

1) Counter-trend investors (buy low sell high) may start to take action in bearish stock market below low optimism < 25%.

2) Life-time investors (buy low & hold for life time) may want to wait for Level 3-4 (eg US) to fall to low optimism or even until global financial crisis happens (eg GDP declines over 10% in many countries).

3) Trend-follower traders or investors may wait until the durian feast is over, there will be still leftover due to over supply, not in a hurry to join the bearish stock market, wait for the trend to reverse first before long the market. Some traders who could not wait till summer, may want to collect “junk” durian by selling to others (shorting at junk stocks in bear market) to make profit.

Despite many global giant stocks are at low optimism (not yet for DBS), but Levels 3 (country, eg. US) and Level 4 (world) stock market are not yet at low optimism (but trending down again this week), so it is prudent to save silver bullets but need to have a plan to trigger it, so that will get something when stock hunting game is over.

Remember to ensure durian tree will not fall first (business fundamental is strong, won’t go bankrupt easily) during the thunder storm (economic crisis), otherwise no more durian in future, investor may also get injure as buy low for weak fundamental stock may get lower or get zero eventually.

So, which type of durian are you waiting to drop? D24 (DBS) or Mao Shan Wang or any global giant durian?

There are 30 Banking & Finance Stocks in Singapore including DBS Bank (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
AMTD IB OV (SGX: HKB), B&M Hldg (SGX: CJN), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Edition (SGX: 5HG), G K Goh (SGX: G41), Global Investment (SGX: B73), Great Eastern (SGX: G07), Hong Leong Finance (SGX: S41), Hotung Investment (SGX: BLS), IFAST Corporation (SGX: AIY), IFS Capital (SGX: I49), Intraco (SGX: I06), Maxi-Cash Finance (SGX: 5UF), MoneyMax Finance (SGX: 5WJ), Net Pacific Finance (SGX: 5QY), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), Pacific Century (SGX: P15), Prudential USD (SGX: K6S), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), SHS (SGX: 566), Sing Investments & Finance (SGX: S35), Singapore Reinsurance (SGX: S49), Singapura Finance (SGX: S23), TIH (SGX: T55), Uni-Asia Group (SGX: CHJ), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOB-KAY HIAN HOLDINGS (SGX: U10), UOI (SGX: U13), ValueMax (SGX: T6I), Vibrant Group (SGX: BIP).

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Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 members.

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Stock Market (QE vs Coronavirus) 水火不容

Posted on March 26, 2020 Written by
stock market QE Coronavirus

Over the past 1 month of global stock crisis with 30% major correction to US stock market due to fear of both Coronavirus pandemic affecting the whole world and Crude Oil price war between OPEC and non-OPEC.

By right, it is nearly a mission impossible for global stock market to recover (eg. for S&P 500 to stand above 3000 points again). Trump’s most powerful opponent is not China nor Biden. It is the tiny Coronavirus which was still an underdog a few months ago when rising from China, but now becomes a deadly challenger to Trump’s second’s term US presidency.

“Water” and “Fire” are 2 extreme elements, never get along well (水火不容). Similarly, “Greed” and “Fear” are 2 human nature which affect the stock markets, eventually the global economy.

Trump is multi-billionaire businessman, understanding the importance of greed to stock market. So, unlimited Quantitative Easing (QE = printing money) combines forces with global QE by Q20 (through various ways of economic stimulus plans, including Singapore), providing liquidity (as if “water”) to investment markets and economy to fight against spreading of wild “fire” due to fear of Coronavirus, which results in weaker economy mainly due to reduced social networking, greatly affecting all sectors, especially transportation, retail, tourism, F&B, now virtually everyone when more countries are under lockdown.

QE is literally printing money or adding liquidity, naturally results in short term market rally, even if not even 1 cent is used yet. Greed could change the market overnight, changing from 5% daily drop to 5% daily rally for global stock market.

However, current “rally” in stock market is more suitable for trading (mid term) unless entry is positioned with long term value investing (consider price below the intrinsic value), able to resist the potential downside. “Greed” and “Fear” will exchange blows to stock market, until a stronger one would survive and stand for longer time.

Let’s understand the weapons of stock market “Greed” and “Fear” now.

Greed is supported by global QE. However, when global stock markets were over speculated over the past decade to high optimism > 75% (especially for US), after the Fear has come to correct to mid optimism of about 50%, it needs more silver bullets to be strong again. In the last global financial crisis (2008-2009 subprime crisis), a few trillions of dollars were pumped in during QE 1-4 during years 2009 – 2014 to revive the US economy with excitement of global stock markets.

Due to investment market and “greed inflation”, current global stock crisis would need more than 10 trillions of dollars to resolve (similar to addiction to drug, dosage is increased each time). So, Trump has found a smart way of “Unlimited QE” through the Fed to provide “unlimited greed” to the investment market, resulting in short term stock market rally.

There are 2 keys before summer (Jun-July) to determine the fate of Trump and global stock markets: Economy vs Coronavirus conditions.

Be careful of early Apr when the first set of monthly economic data is released, likely to show higher unemployment rate or lower GDP, then investors may be back to fear again. Job market is very crucial for global economy, especially for US. Until Feb 2020, unemployment rate of 3.5% is the best performance over the past 50 years, implying the downside is tremendous. For every 100 American, about 96 have jobs which salary could be used for spending (helping other businesses with stocks to grow) and investing (helping investment markets such as stock and properties to grow).

If Mar 2020 (first monthly data after Coronavirus and global stock market crisis, to be reported in early Apr) unemployment gets worse significantly, eg to 4-5% or higher, it means a downtrend economic cycle is initiated with less spending and less investing by No 1 economy, US, which contribute to over 50% of world economy and stock market values. After the retrenchment, usually it is hard to hire back in a short term and economy is slower in response, compared to stock market which could change overnight.

So, time is key now to Trump, only maximum 3 months (Mar – May) to stabilize the global stock market fear, firstly with silver bullets of unlimited QE. However, this is only half-time match, the ending would depends on whether Coronavirus could end on time by summer and even so, will it come come again every 6 months during winter, affecting the whole whole again before vaccine is developed in about 1 year.

===================

Good news is Trump has a fair chance to win as Coronavirus dislikes warm temperature. Here is an update of Coronavirus condition in major countries (see my previous video on how to analyze):

1) China – 4 months Coronavirus period is confirmed, ending in Mar 2020. China people including Wuhan / Hubei have reopened the door of economy, busy making money again. This is the result after painful experience of lockdown of whole China for 2 months, with good practices continue to prevent future viruses.

2) Korea – was the second most severe country, Coronavirus would end in Apr after follow the lockdown model of China. This is the first proof outside China that Coronavirus could be controlled within about 4 months period with active intervention to minimize the death cases.

3) Italy is the most severe cases, considering the death number (actual infected cases could be more than China as mild cases were not diagnosed). Even so, after lockdown for a few weeks, last 5 days were showing downtrend in new daily cases, good chance to reach a peak by mid of Apr, ending in May.

4) Iran has been stable at high cases (growth is limited), social distancing could be a challenge, therefore infection may continue until more people to be infected before community immunity may be established to stop the spreading.

5) US/Europe is under high growth of Coronavirus, especially for US (major city like New York City with crowded population is high risk), over 13k cases each day, likely will exceed both China and Italy to have the highest number of infection. However, due to strong medical resources, US death rate is lower than China and Italy. However, US/Europe may have high growth in cases in Apr, fading in May, only then may end in Jun.

This is also true for countries like Germany and Singapore, so high infected number may not be a threat, more importantly spread over a longer period to ensure medical solution could be given.

6) Singapore and Southeast asia countries continue to follow the global trends (mainly US/Europe) with high growth. With total / partial lockdown, significant reduction would be observed in number of new daily cases as most new cases are imported cases due to return of residents infected from overseas.

7) Both Africa and India (second world largest population) may be slow in spreading of cases but Coronavirus treats everyone fairly. So, early intervention in India with strict measures would help to lower the death rate by slowing down the growth rate, similar strategy as in Singapore. Many people die in China Hubei and Italy, not due to high number of cases, but mainly due to lack of medical resources during the peak period.

In summary, there is fair chance for current on-going Coronavirus to end in summer (Jun-July). The turning point from high to slower growth rate (decline in new daily cases) is key for US as this is the first signal to see light at the end of tunnel, which would affect both stock and economy in US and whole world.

So, Trump could only help 50% with unlimited QE. The remaining 50% would need the opponent Coronavirus to fall itself. The results will be clear in summer but signals will be clearer each week from now to summer and stock market would reflect such probability of winning or losing through the stock prices.

====================

In general, don’t focus on daily changes in share prices. Rather, one has to establish an overall strategy: long term investing, mid term trading or short term trading. Both long or shorting is possible but need to align with own personality.

In the current uncertain market with lower optimism in Asia stock market and mid optimism for US, it is relatively safe to apply long term value investing but entries have to be in batches (eg. 10% x 10 times, 20% x 5 times, 33% x 3 times, 50% x 2 times), averaging down and up with low optimism strategies across Level 1 (individual stocks), Level 2 (sectors), Level 3 (country) and Level 4 (world) over a portfolio of 10-20 global giant stocks.

If trading is applied, S.E.T. (Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices) trading plan must be followed strictly but a challenge for retail traders in volatile market with +/- 5% in daily stock market.

If Coronavirus may end in summer, global stock market has reasonable chance to recover with support of global QE. If not, it may fall into depression with global financial crisis, especially if the same virus may come back again every winter, every 6 months to haunt the world. By then, vaccine in about 1 year of now would be key to prevent the global financial crisis falling into the great depression as it is serious when there is little social network (eg. shopping) for more than 1 year.

Dr Tee has cancelled all investment workshops in Feb-Apr 2020 during global stock crisis to follow the government rules with less gathering. This is a regret for some students as it is the best time in 10+ years to learn and apply crisis stock investing. So, I could only share through more regular articles and video education but it has limitation compared to a more comprehensive 4 hours workshop.

The next available free 4hr investment public workshop (with meet-up) by Dr Tee will be on 21 May 2020, you may register here before it is full: www.ein55.com

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 8000 members:
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Action in Global Stock Crisis 心动不如行动

Posted on March 24, 2020 Written by
Action in Global Stock Crisis

Market analysts usually like to predict the future. Before 1 month ago in bull market, some still predicted how high US stock and economy may surge. Now, of course predict how low it may drop to the bottom.

Some readers may be confused of so many future market directions, unsure which one to follow, ending up as an observer without taking any action, missing the boat eventually.

It is human nature hoping to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest point of stock market. However, it is not practical to follow these predictions before actions. Each of us need to have a strategy aligned with personality, may not need to be a long term investor, could be short term or mid term trader.

In general, long term investor only need to buy at price below the value with significant discount, no need to buy at the lowest (if got it, treat it as a bonus but not a must to have). An investor just need to define % discount acceptable to oneself, similar to a shopper going for shopping with sales, will trigger a buy when % discount is more than expectation.

For traders, one may add trend-following indicators on prices, waiting for reversal before entry (now is mostly for shorting), no problem if new prices are higher, a confirmation of new trend (eg bull to bear) but always follow SET plan: Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices.

Action is more important after reasonable analysis (no need to be very precise, especially for longer term investing but overall direction must be correct). Press the button when signals aligned with own personality, not aligned with market analysts or mass market.

Learn further from Dr Tee free 4hr investment course on how to take actions in global stock crisis: Buy / Hold / Sell / Wait / Shorting with 10 different strategies in stocks: www.ein55.com

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Time for Bottom of Stock Market (海底捞月)

Posted on March 23, 2020 Written by
bottom of stock market

No one would know the true bottom (the lowest point) of stock market unless having the ability to “Back to the Future”. Time for the bottom of stock market is ideal but may not be practical as it could be reaching the moon with underwater reflection (海底捞月), greedy for the lowest (cheapest price with most discount) with little considerations of other risk factors, may fall into water with market trap. For those without any action, there is also a fear of missing out, eventually may miss the boat of opportunity totally. So, it is a dilemma for some investors to Buy or to Wait when stock market is bearish.

Similarly, in a Bull market (last 10 years), it is also a headache for investors to “Hold” or to “Sell”. Over the past few years, I have reminded repeatedly readers and students to take note of the high optimism risk at Level 3 (country, especially US) and Level 4 (world) stock markets, safer to apply short term trading, walking on a layer of thin ice which finally breaks over the past 1 month (those who fell but did not sell as short term trader is now trapped with over 30-50% losses). So, even one may not know the highest point, as long as know “High Enough” (>75% optimism), one could escape from the 30% loss in global stock market, which may have another 20-30% potential to fall, if it becomes global financial crisis with declining economy.

However, it is possible to apply probability investing to start progressive entries (for contrarian investor) when it is “Low Enough”. 25% Optimism will be a point of “Low Enough”, 0% Optimism is considered a rare opportunity. However, “Buy Low” is insufficient, one has to align other Ein55 styles to form personalized strategy aligned with own personality, otherwise When “Buy Low” may “Sell Lower” or “Sell Lowest” one day for those with weak holding power, especially if global financial crisis is confirmed and become worse over the next 6-12 months after the starting of global stock crisis in Mar 2020.

Trump and G20 political leaders may join forces in the next 1-3 months to launch the most generous QE ever (eg. massive printing of money of a few Trillions of dollars through asset purchase by government and other feasible economic stimulus tools). However, this is borrowing money from the future generation (20 years from now), simply planting another time bomb for future investment market (similar to QE 1-4 over the past decade, finally triggered by fear of Coronavirus and crude oil crisis).

For smart investor, one could save 10-20 years of investing time by leveraging on current opportunity. However, the lost generation who does not know investment may suffer in future. See Japan ‘s example of lost 3 decades, some elderly people could not retire as retirement was evaporated and young people need to struggle with lower pay job without bright future despite inflation is low.

I am reluctant to reveal here exactly what are the prices of “low enough” (25% optimism) or “rare opportunity” (0% optimism) for each investment here (stocks, properties, commodities, forex, bond, bitcoin, car COE, etc). Main reason is readers may not be trained, sharing may be wrongly used as “tips”, when not supported by other Ein55 styles (eg. strong fundamental stocks and technical of prices, macroeconomic analysis, personality, etc), it could be a disaster.

Current global stock market crisis could be a gift from heaven but only if one knows exactly how to position with integration of minimum 5 Ein55 Styles of LOFTP strategies (Level 1-4, Optimism 0-100%, Fundamental – Strong/Weak, Technical – Up/Down, Personal – Trade / Invest).

Register Here for free 4hr stock investment course by Dr Tee (23 Apr session is full, next one is 21 May session, only 1 class monthly, will be updated in same website): www.ein55.com

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