Healthcare Stocks – Choice between Life or Money

Posted on February 21, 2017 Written by

Ein55 Newsletter No 050 - image - Hospital
Healthcare sector is one of the strongest sector in most countries of the world, business has been growing steadily. Between “Life” and “Money”, most people would choose life over money. Regardless rich or poor people, they are willing to pay to cure their sickness, prolong their lives, staying alive as long as possible.

As a result, doctor / medical specialist is also one of the most respectful profession because one could make a lot of money with this specialized medical skills. Hospital could save millions of lives and make a lot of money at the same time due to this unique economic moats, especially for reputable hospitals.

Healthcare related stocks (eg. hospitals, medical services, healthcare REITs, healthcare products and services) with strong fundamentals worth consideration by investors. However, some of their stock prices could be at sky high due to bullish market.  We need to wait for market crisis to buy some of these strong healthcare stocks at discounted price.

Feb 2017 Ein55 Class has just found 5 global giant hospital stocks:
1 in India (Nifty)
1 in Australia (ASX)
2 in Thailand (SET)
1 in Singapore (SGX)

Even we may not know these regional hospitals, we could find them easily if we master the skills of 8 FA Weapons + Giant Detector. Of course, local people would confirm the choice is correct as these hospitals are well known.

We don’t have to get a doctor license nor knowing how to run a hospital business. We could become a business partner of these hospitals, sharing their profits while helping to save lives at the same time with this investment.

We could form a dream team with 10 key players in stock portfolio, 1 could be a healthcare giant stock. However, we must partner with a giant hospital stock, because not all the stocks in this sector are making money with long term growth prospect.

Filed Under: Stock Market Tagged: ,

Summary of Seminar with Hu Liyang 胡立阳 in Singapore (14 Jan 2017)

Posted on February 1, 2017 Written by

 

Hu Liyang (胡立阳) and Dr Tee

I was invited as a co-speaker in this seminar (14 Jan 2017, Singapore) with Hu Liyang (胡立阳), a famous stock investing guru in Asia. As requested by a reader, I am giving a summary here to show the similarities and differences of my views with Hu Liyang (胡立阳) on Market Outlook for the next few years.

The last time I met Hu Liyang (胡立阳) was probably 4-5 years ago. The first impression of him again is that both of us are getting much older. He has a few more “railway tracks” on forehead while I have many more white hairs.

Both of us have observed many economy cycles in the past few decades, although Hu Liyang (胡立阳) is probably 10+ years more senior than me, that’s why we are mostly aligned in many understanding on market outlook. Hu Liyang (胡立阳) hinted a retirement which I think he deserves it. For me, I don’t feel I am “working” on my interest of investment education, so I don’t feel tired yet. Perhaps one day I may also start a new phase in life, hoping investment is also part of lifelong learning for all the readers.

 

Hu Liyang (胡立阳) and Dr Tee - Similarities

Similarities in Market Outlook

===========================

1) Final Phase of Bull Market

Both agree that the market is entering the final phase of bull run. I am supported by high optimism of stock market at Level 3 (especially US) and Level 4 (world), while Hu Liyang (胡立阳) is mainly based on interest rate cycle: “bull market starts when interest rate is cut, ends about 1-2 years after interest rate hike in US”

2) Danger Signals for Investment Market

Both agree that bond market is at high risk, bond yield has been at historical low, when bond yield hits 3% (now is 2+% for US 10 years bond yield), the fund is moving from bond to stock and property market, creating risky investment bubbles.

3) Market Cycle Investing

Both agree on market cycle theory. Hu Liyang (胡立阳) uses “pendulum theory”, market will swing from high to low, low to high, sometimes may be even over-corrected, applying his 50% discount theory and other correction factor. I mainly use Optimism to declare the market risk (>75% Optimism) or opportunity (<25 Optimism). Despite the exact methods may be different, both are suggesting buy low sell high based on economy cycles.

 

Hu Liyang (胡立阳) and Dr Tee - Differences

Differences in Market Outlook

==========================

1) Timing of Global Financial Crisis

Hu Liyang (胡立阳) has been trying to predict the timing of global financial crisis. I remember a few years ago, he predicted the great crisis may come around year 2013 or 2014. This time, the time bomb is extended to around year 2019. With political economy such as global QE and near zero interest rate for so many years, the current market cycle duration is much longer than last time. I could understand why Hu Liyang (胡立阳) still tries to predict the future as there are too many audience really hope to have a crystal ball to see the future, especially Hu Liyang (胡立阳) has an amazing record to predict the ending time of last global financial crisis in year 2008.

My view is that market cycle duration is unpredictable because it depends on the rate of optimism reaching danger zone of 75-100%. However, there is a predictability within the unpredictability. We just let Optimism shows us the risk level, no need to guess the future. If US takes 10+ years to reach high optimism, market cycle duration will be prolonged. If US behaves like China, stock index is doubled in 1 year, then market cycle will be shorter. This is one of my Ein 55 Investment Styles (of course, Hu Liyang (胡立阳) also has his 100 Investment Styles in his famous book), Optimism is a market thermometer. We will never know when we will have the next fever (eg >38 deg.C), but we will know when we have a fever because we could feel overheated, temperature measured is too high. It is never too late to find a Panadol to cool down the body when we really have fever. Similarly, we will not know when the next crisis may come, but we could guess the probability with market temperature using optimism. When market is having a mild fever (38 deg.C or 75% Optimism) or high fever (40 deg.C or 100% Optimism), we will know as well.  The key challenge is whether a trader or investor is willing to take profit (as if taking Panadol), admitting the market is feverish. Based on my observations of past market cycles, more people work harder despite having high fevers, ending up losing what they have accumulated when the market bubble is burst.

 

2) Factors for Success in Stocks

Hu Liyang (胡立阳) believes the stock market is a probability game of 3 possibilities: up, flat or down in share prices (more of a TA believer); fundamental or business are not as important. He mainly uses “money analysis” to analyze the money flow in economy cycles, combining with many TA methods to predict the mega stock market low and high, both in prices and timing.

I believe in an integration of 3 pillars to be successful in stocks:
2.1) Optimism + Fundamental Analysis (FA, buy giant stock with strong business fundamentals).

2.2) Optimism + Technical Analysis (TA, investment clock to wait for giant to fall down and recover),

2.3) Optimism + Personal Analysis (PA, emotional control) to take actions.

 

I also believe there is a need to match the strategy with our unique personality:

– short term trader (buy/sell every few weeks),

– mid term trader (buy/sell every few months),

– long term investor (buy/sell every few years),

– life time investor (buy and not need to sell for life).

Warren Buffett, Jim Rogers, Hu Liyang (胡立阳), Jesse Livermore, etc, each investing master or trading guru, could have their own styles of making money, but it may not be suitable for everyone, unless you share the same frequency in mindset. This is the reason I teach the complete Ein55 Styles with consideration of both short term trading and long term investing, FA, TA & PA with economic analysis, showing Ein55 graduates how to customize an unique trading or investing style for individual.

The safest time to buy a stock is when everyone is afraid the sky will fall while the business is still operating normally with consistent performance. This could be a rare opportunity to buy during a crisis; we should learn how to take this advantage to truly buy low sell high.

When Optimism Strategies are combined with Fundamental Analysis (value investing & growth investing), Technical Analysis (support / resistance / trends), and Personal Analysis (mind control of greed and fear), it is very powerful as one can take the right action (Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait or Short) at the right time aligning with his own personality.

The unique Optimism Strategy developed by Dr Tee provides a special advantage to know which investment (stock, forex, property, commodity, bond, etc.) to buy safely, when to buy, when to sell, including the option of long term holding.  So far over 20,000 attendees have benefited from Dr Tee high-quality free courses to the public. Take action now to invest in your financial knowledge, starting your journey towards financial freedom.

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

Learn 10 Strategies of Stock Trading & Value Investing (股市投资十大策略)

1)    Master Buy Low Sell High for all investment markets (stock, property, commodity, forex, bond) (买低卖高：股票、房地产、商品、外汇、债券)

2)    Profit in bearish and bullish markets, understanding the true impact of US Interest Rate Hike, Bullish Global Economy, Oil & Gas Crisis (环球经济)

3)    Long-term investing strategies to outperform portfolio return of Temasek, Li Ka-Shing, Warren Buffett, major stock indices/ETF and other funds (长期投资策略)

4)    High-probability Shorting techniques for short term traders to profit from falling stock market while others are losing money or doing nothing (短期卖空技巧)

5)    Generate consistent Passive Income with REITS and real property with knowhow of high dividend stock and property market cycles (房地产信托股的被动收入)

6)    Methods of Spring Cleaning for own stock portfolio to eliminate junk stocks without any hope (股票大扫除)

7)    Time for Global Financial Crisis to buy blue chip stocks on sale (危机也是良机)

8)    What to buy (stock screening), When to buy/sell (buy low sell how), How much to buy/sell (risk management): (股票三部曲：买何股？何时买卖？买卖多少？)

9)    Fundamental   Analysis (FA) + Technical Analysis (TA) + Personal Analysis (PA), integrated with unique Optimism Strategy by Dr Tee (乐观指数：三法一体)

10) Global Stock Market Outlook: emerging opportunities with high potential in Singapore, US, China & Hong Kong stock markets (环球股票市场展望： 新美中港，股票良机)

3 BONUSES for Dr Tee Workshop Attendees:

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

Speaker-20-years
Bonus #1 for Readers:  Dr Tee Investment Forum with over 6000 members (Private Group)

(Please click “JOIN” with link above and wait for Admin approval of membership)

  • Market Outlook (stocks, properties, bonds, forex, commodities, macroeconomy, etc)
    市场展望 (股票、房地产、债券、外汇、商品、宏观经济等)
  • Optimism/ Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analyses
    （乐观指数 / 基本分析 / 技术分析 / 个人分析）
  • Investment risks & opportunities （投资风险及机遇）
  • Dr Tee graduates events and activities updates （Dr Tee学员活动最新消息）

d3

Bonus #2 for Readers:  Dr Tee Investment eBooks x 2

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Fresh from Oven: Download the latest 2 eBooks by Dr Tee on “Global Stock Market Outlook“, covering comprehensive investment topics: Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond and Political Economy & “Dream Team Portfolio” with Top 10 global stocks for capital gains and passive incomes. Past readers have benefited, learning Simple and Powerful strategies which deliver incredible results in stocks. Learn to position for each market crisis and opportunity with Optimism Strategies.

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Click here to join future Dr Tee (Ein55) investment courses:  www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Outlook, Stock Market Tagged: ,

New Ein55 Investment Style 2017: Frog Cooking Theory

Posted on January 26, 2017 Written by

Ein55 Newsletter No 048 - image - Frog Cooking Theory

 

Although both were/are at historical peak stock prices with high optimism, there is a key difference between bullish stock markets of China SSEC (Year 2015) and US S&P and DJI (Jan 2017).  The chart below shows that the rate of index growth is much faster for China SSEC, therefore the high optimism was not sustainable, going up and coming down within months. US stock market is a gradual warming process, although feverish, it is more sustainable.

We may have heard the story of a frog swims comfortably in warm water, could be killed unknowingly when the water is heated up gradually. A frog could adjust the body resistance to temperature change, but there is a limit for the tolerance, eventually it will get killed if the water temperature is too high because it is so used to the environment, does not know how to jump out of the danger.

Sounds familiar to those in the stock market? If a stock trader or investor behaves like a frog, adjusting to the cooling water (i.e. stock market correction) and warm water (i.e. stock market rally), mild bearish or mild bullish market, but eventually when stock market hits extreme high optimism, one may not know how to escape when the market melts down, not able to react fast enough as they may not feel the risks when stock market prices grow up gradually.

The US stock market has been bullish recently, leading the global stock markets in the same direction, ideal for short term traders to buy high sell higher.  Dow Jones Index is above the critical 20,000 points, which could be the next future support over the time, while S&P 500 is near to the next milestone of 2300 points.  As long as the water temperature of stock market is heated gradually, best with some cooling in between, the “frogs” could still be safe for a prolonged period of time until a Black Swan swims in one day, then the unprepared traders or even investors, could be caught by surprise, may not know this will be a real crisis.

Ein55 Newsletter No 048 - image - Indices Growth Rates

You could call this as a new Ein55 style but since Dr Tee already has established 55 Investment Styles, I won’t give a new number, eg. #56. You may know the reason if you have attended my free courses to the public before.  This investing concept was already integrated into Optimism Strategies, it is just I did not label with a style in the past. We need to monitor the rate of change in Optimism which is different from Technical Analysis which focuses only on stock prices.  Ein55 Investment styles are usually generalized concepts with interesting stories, helping learners to apply the methods easily in daily life experience of investment markets.

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Optimism, Personal Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: , ,

New Year 2017 – Bull or Bear Market? Learn 2 Winning Strategies for Stocks

Posted on January 10, 2017 Written by

ein55-newsletter-no-047-image-bull-or-bear-2017

New Year 2017 will be an exciting year for global stock market with Donald Trump as the new US president, recovery of emerging markets and crude oil market, rising interest rate and a bullish US economy. Let’s learn how to position in stock market with 2 winning strategies: 1) Buy Low Sell High, 2) Buy High Sell Higher.

US contributes to 40% of global stock value, therefore it should be a key focus to understand the stock market outlook in year 2017.  US economy has been consistently bullish, supporting the stock market.  US unemployment rate has declined by half from 10% to 4.7% in Dec 2016.  Based on the historical unemployment rates of US since year 1950 (see chart below), we could observe that US economy is entering the last phase of bull run as the unemployment rate is falling below 5%, moving towards the critical 4% value, reflecting the peak of US economy.

Lower unemployment rate implies more new jobs are created, therefore more spending power, which helps the business to grow with higher sales, eventually reflecting as higher stock prices due to stronger fundamental in financial statements.  US stock market has been bullish in the past few years, following the trend of US economy, likely will continue in the New Year 2017.

ein55-newsletter-no-047-image-us-unemployment-rate

US S&P500 stock index has achieved new historical high on 6 Jan 2017 with 2276 points.  Based on Dr Tee (Ein55) Optimism Strategy, US stock market is close to danger zone with 74% Optimism in long term (see chart below), implying the probability of bear market risk is 74% while the upside potential is limited, only 26%.

There have been mixed feelings in the stock market. Some people have stopped investing, worrying about the peak of US stock market but unknowingly the stock prices become higher and higher with time, they may regret of missing the train, hoping to have the last ride.

There are actually many mechanisms to make money in stocks.  Here are 2 winning strategies for the New Year 2017, to be aligned with one’s unique personality:

1) Buy Low Sell High

This strategy is suitable for long term investors who hope to invest safely, buying good fundamental stock at low price, selling high in future or holding for long term.  Since US and global stock market are approaching higher optimism level, the chances of global financial crisis is high, any unexpected global event in near future could trigger the bear market.

An investor will need to be very patient, ignoring the temptation of the bullish market, taking profit while others are greedy (Optimism >75%), standby enough capital to prepare to buy low when Optimism of global stock market is below 25% again.  Control of emotions is critical to buy low when others are fearful one day.

 

2) Buy High Sell Higher

Not everyone is an investor, having the patience to wait.  Some people are more suitable for short term trading, which they could follow momentum trading to buy high and sell higher in near future.  A stock price could be at high price but the trend is bullish, therefore the price is sustainable for short term, having the potential to go up even higher with time.

This strategy is more suitable for short term trading in the last phase of bull market, following the trends of stock prices, supported by news, speculations, business, economy, etc.  When the trend has stopped, the traders have to stop as well or applying reversed trend in trading.  Control of emotions are very critical as daily news could affect the traders’ psychology.  The ability to take profit or cut loss is important as the elements of probability are stronger here.

There are other variations of the strategies, eg. an investor could buy low for strong fundamental stocks, sell high for short to medium terms.  This way, an investor could also enjoy the last phase of the bull run in stock market with integration of trading strategies.

ein55-newsletter-no-047-image-sp500-optimism

 

 

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Outlook, Stock Market Tagged: , , ,

How to Profit 70% from Acquisition of ARA Asset Management Stock by Li Ka-Shing?

Posted on November 17, 2016 Written by

ein55-newsletter-no-046-image-ara-banner

 

ARA Asset Management (SGX: D1R) is one of the Top-20 giant stocks in Singapore, based on Optimism Strategies with consideration of FA (Fundamental Analysis), TA (Technical Analysis) and PA (Personal Analysis).  Let’s learn how to grab the next opportunities following similar approach, taking action ahead of the potential big bunds.

ARA is a REIT manager with consistent earning, major shareholders are John Lim (CEO), Cheung Kong (Li Ka-Shing) and Straits Trading.  Due to the weak property market outlook, the stock price has been declining in the past 3 years from high optimism (over 75%) to low optimism (below 25%), creating a rare opportunity for potential investors who could identify the hidden treasure and wait patiently for the acquisition or recovery in share price.

ARA share price was falling below $1.10, considered low optimism, suitable for investor to buy low again.  There is no surprise when the major shareholders have decided to offer to acquire ARA recently as they know the true value of their own business.  As a result, ARA share price is approaching offer price of $1.78/share, gain of 70% over the last 1 year.

 

ein55-newsletter-no-046-image-ara-optimism

We should learn to find the other Top 20 Giant stocks in Singapore with high value, buying at discounted price at low optimism, ahead of other potential big buyers who are also looking for these cash cows.  Investment clock is very critical to profit consistently from stock market.

Most people may think Singapore stock market is stagnant but actually it is a good time for big funds to acquire good business at low price. If we can understand the mindset of big funds who are value investors, taking actions before them, then there is no surprise of the big gains in short time with the acquisition.  Earlier successes by Ein55 Graduates were SMRT, Sim Lian, CM Pacific and Super Group, all are value or growth stocks acquired so far.

 

Filed Under: Market Optimism, Stocks A-Z Tagged: ,

Gain 50% in 1 month on Cash Cow – Super Group with Optimism Strategies

Posted on November 4, 2016 Written by

ein55-newsletter-no-044-image-cash-cow-super-group

 

Most people may think Singapore stock market is stagnant but actually it is a good time for big funds to acquire good business at low price.  Previously Ein55 Graduates have gained from acquisitions of SMRT (by Temasek) and Sim Lian (by Chairman, Mr Kuik).  The target this time is on Super Group which Ein55 Graduates have prepared, following Dr Tee Optimism Strategy.

Super Group (SGX: S10) is one of the Top-10 food & beverage stocks in Singapore, based on Optimism Strategies with consideration of FA (Fundamental Analysis), TA (Technical Analysis) and PA (Personal Analysis).  Let’s learn how to grab the next opportunities following similar approach, taking action ahead of the potential big bunds.

Super Group is a strong cash cow in the defensive food & beverage sector. Following Optimism Strategies (see chart below), there are 3 opportunities in the past 7 years for an investor/trader to gain repeatedly from this giant stock:

 

Opportunity #1 (Long): From Years 2009 to 2013

It was a bullish period for Super Group as earning is tripled during this period. An investor could buy <25% Optimism ($0.30 or below) and sell >75% Optimism ($1.20 or above), minimum gain is 4 times!

 

Opportunity #2 (Short): From Years 2013 to 2016

In the last 3 years, due to regional economy slowdown and strong competition in consumer market, profit has declined, share price has dropped from over $2 to $0.80, about 1/3 of the peak price.  A trader could gain tremendously from the falling down of prices through shorting strategy, from high optimism ($1.70) to low optimism ($0.85).

 

Opportunity #3 (Long):  From Year 2016 till now

Falling in earning of Super Group has stabilised this year, share price below $0.90 is considered low optimism, suitable for investor to buy low again.  There is no surprise when the Dutch fund has decided to offer to acquire super Group recently as they know the true value of his own business.  As a result, Super Group share price went up 50% in the last 1 month from $0.80 – $0.90/share, approaching offer price of $1.30/share, gain of 50% in a short time.

ein55-newsletter-no-044-image-super-group-optimism

We should learn to find the Top 10 food & beverage stocks in Singapore with high value, buying at discounted price at low optimism, ahead of other potential big buyers who are also looking for these cash cows.  Investment clock is very critical to profit consistently from stock market.

 

Filed Under: Stock Market, Stocks A-Z Tagged: , ,

Investment Portfolio Strategies with Football Team Formations

Posted on October 21, 2016 Written by

ein55-newsletter-no-043-image-football-team

There are many similarities between football team formation & investing portfolio strategies. Here are 8 sample strategies of football team formation. Common one is 4-4-2, some apply 4-3-3. Certain coach could work better with some selected players, so we must also find our key players of stocks.

We adopt a trading/investing strategy aligning to our unique personalities. We are the coach of our football team, besides the goalkeeper (cash or safe fund), we need to find 10 key players at different positions, eg (5-3-2) formation strategy:
5 Defenders: 50% stocks in dividend investing (REITs / Non-REITs)
3 Midfielders: 30% stocks in growth/value investing
2 Strikers/Forwarders: 20% stocks in crisis investing / short term momentum trading
(Don’t forget a few reserve players as we could have accidental injury or fatigue, standby giant stocks which could be considered in next round of selection)

By the way, if you are not a fan of football, you could think of basketball or any other team, similar strategies applied. This is to show that investment is as easy (or as tough?) as playing a ball game.

Align each player with 3 types of trading/investing strategies:
1) Buy Low Sell High
2) Buy Low Hold Long Term
3) Buy High Sell Higher

 

Filed Under: Stock Market Tagged: ,

4 Seasons of Investing with Optimism Strategies

Posted on October 5, 2016 Written by

ein55-newsletter-no-042-image-4-seasons-tree

There are three schools of thought to achieve the best of both worlds in stock trading and investing. To bridge these three schools of thought, i.e. Fundamental Analysis (FA: business and economic performance), Technical Analysis (TA: price movement) and Personal Analysis (PA: emotional management), I have formulated the Optimism Strategies.

The essence of the optimism strategies is to identify fundamentally strong stocks, and buy/sell at a time aligned with technical analysis indicators, matching our personalities to take the right actions: Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait, Short.

It may seem hard to practise the above when pessimism is looming over the markets, but as investors, we all need a bit of optimism.

To make things simpler, I measure optimism on a 0 to 100% scale, where 0% stands for fearfulness or extreme pessimism, and 100% stands for greed or extreme optimism.

The general aim of investors is to find the best time for entry or exit by applying the Optimism Strategy at four different levels: Level 1 – individual stocks, Level 2 – sector/ industry, Level 3 – country/region, and Level 4 – world.

However, most undisciplined retail investors would simply follow the herd mentality—buying when everyone is buying and selling when everyone is selling. But again, these people usually end up buying high and selling low, and thus losing in investment.

 

Don’t be Thrown Off by the Word “Crisis”

I think a very important part of being optimistic is to not be afraid of crises, and not be distracted by “what everyone is saying”, because every crisis presents an opportunity.

If we were to observe how frequently crises occur, we will find that Level-1 crises happen almost all the time. Wind ups happen for weak companies when the earnings, assets, and/or cash flow are insufficient to pay for the debt. This could happen very unexpectedly; such was the case for Swiber.

Level-2 crises tend to follow the market cycle of the particular sector, for example oil & gas, casino, etc. But that also means that opportunities can be found every few months.

Level-3 crisis could happen every year, e.g. the US losing AAA credit rating (2011), China stock crisis (2015), Brexit crisis (2016), etc.

Level-4 crisis is even bigger in scale, but less frequent as well. Picture the Dotcom Bubble (2001) and Subprime Crisis (2008).

The above sound scary, don’t they? But I think that the greatest investment opportunities lie in the most fearful and most unexpected financial crises. This brings me to the next point.

 

The 4 Seasons of Investing

Of course, I don’t mean seasons in the literal sense, neither am I referring to the quarters in a year.

I use seasons as an analogy to describe market optimism. Winter is cold and seemingly lifeless, so I use it to represent a time/period when investors’ interest is very low (Optimism < 25%).

Summer, on the other hand, is hot and vibrant. I use it to represent a time when investors’ interest is high (Optimism > 75%).

Spring and autumn are seasons with milder climates, thus these two seasons refer to times when investors’ interest is average.

Needless to say, seasons come in cycles. Knowing that the market neither prospers nor stagnates forever, our aim is to enter investment in “winter” (when others are fearful), and exit in “summer” (when others are greedy).

Based on the concept of the four seasons, I have formulated a strategy to pick the optimum times of entering or exiting the market, as depicted in the diagram below:

ein55-newsletter-no-042-image-4-seasons-of-investing

If  you are unsure about what this diagram means, I will be giving a more detailed breakdown of the approach investors can take in my free investment course.

If you’re interested to learn more, you may stay tune to my upcoming articles in this space or even attend a free investment course where I would explain the concepts more in-depth. During the free 3hr high-quality short course to the public, I will also share about 5 out of my 55 investment styles. Click on the button below to find out more about the latest upcoming workshop.

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Market Optimism Tagged: , ,

Ein55 Charity Course: Discounted NAV Stocks (Summary of Key Learning Points)

Posted on September 19, 2016 Written by

ein55-newsletter-no-041-image-charity-dnav-course

The earlier two Ein55 Charity courses on REITs/BT (Nov 2015) and High Dividend Stocks (Mar 2016) were great successes (click links above to read the reports), enriching the investment knowledge of Ein55 graduates in dividend income approach, helping other needy people at the same time. Chye Tin, an Ein55 Graduate Mentor and successful investor, together with Dr Tee, have organized the third Charity Course, Discounted NAV (Net Asset Value) Stocks for capital growth on 17 Sep 2016, part of a series of 4 investment courses based on practical strategies.

The responses from Ein55 Graduates were overwhelming, about 220 students have attended this Charity Course, learning how to choose stocks with significant discounts in good assets, when to buy and sell them in future with investing-for-capital growth strategies, integrating advanced Fundamental Analysis and Ein55 Optimism Strategies.

The net income from this Charity Course is donated to Tzu Chi to help more needy people.  It is an honour that the management of Tzu Chi 慈济 (Singapore), Mr Sim, also attended this charity event, sharing how Tzu Chi has helped numerous needy people regardless of races, religions and nationalities.  Through the combined effort of all Ein55 Graduates, we have donated directly and indirectly, an amount of $15,400 to Tzu Chi in this third Charity Course.

We hope to inspire more Ein55 Graduates to reach out the society, helping others who are in need.  More importantly, they have also learned the secrets of making money through investment. When more Ein55 Graduates are as successful as Chye Tin, they could also contribute back to the society to help more people in future.

Here are key learning points in this Discounted NAV Stocks course:

1) Before invest our money in any stock, we should learn to apply 2 investing strategies:

– Invest for Income – focus on REIT or/and High yield stock (non REIT),

– Invest for Capital Growth – based on its asset or earning / cash flow growth

2) Discounted Asset Strategy – valuation of company business base on the Net Asset Value (NAV) listed in current Balance Sheet. Then, we determine the net CASH that would be received if all assets were sold and liabilities paid off.  Various discounts will be applied based on different quality of asset classes.  It is safe to buy stock with share price below the Discounted NAV.

3) Ensure the Discounted NAV stocks are fundamentally strong (checking several additional FA criteria, eg. Earning per Share > 0), not to fall into the value traps.

4) Combine with Ein55 Optimism Strategies to decide BUY/SELL points

BUY – when low optimism (<25%)

SELL – when high optimism (>75%)

5) One Discounted NAV stock fulfilled all the criteria mentioned above is HongKong Land (SGX: H78), click here to read analysis on this stock.  There are many undervalue Singapore and global stocks, we should learn to form a portfolio to own these Discounted NAV stocks.

We should drive the money (helping others when you are successful), not driven by the money (making money for own gain).  Investors should learn the unique Optimism Strategies developed by Dr Tee to choose strong global stocks, buying them at low price, then holding for consistent dividend payout or selling for capital gains.  Free high-quality investment courses are provided by Dr Tee to the public.

 

Filed Under: Stock Market, Stocks A-Z Tagged: , , ,

Investment Strategies for Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) – Low Risk High Return

Posted on September 16, 2016 Written by

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Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is getting popular among the investors, total global asset value has exceeded US$3 trillion.  ETF has the best DNA of both stocks and investment funds.  ETF is an investment fund which can be traded like stocks, having the stability of investment funds (risk diversification over a large portfolio) and flexibility of stocks (buy / sell in stock market) with minimal fund management fee.

There are thousands of ETFs globally over various investment markets, eg:

  • Stocks: SPY, STI, QQQ, RSX, XLE…
  • Bonds: SHY, TIP, AGG…
  • Commodities: USO, GLD, DBA…
  • Currencies: FXA, FXB, FXC…

Famous ETFs providers are SPDRs, iShares, PowerShares, ProShares, Vanguard, etc.  For stocks ETFs, it could be related to stock indices, sectors or a group of stocks selected by the fund managers, either actively or passively managed.  Some ETFs could be operated inversely (shorting, eg, PSQ – ProShares Short QQQ ETF, higher ETF price with falling in Nasdaq 100 stocks) or with leverage (Ultra, eg. SSO – Ultra S&P500 Proshares, 2 times leveraging of S&P500 stock index movement).

An investor must learn how to choose the top 10 global ETFs (low risk high return), aligning with own personality and investment goals.  Fund managers could help in what to buy, diversifying the investment over a large portfolio to lower the risks.  For those with limited capital, ETF is a low-cost way of investment diversification, 1 ETF is equivalent to a portfolio of many stocks with good businesses.  It is also easier to monitor 1 ETF, comparing to monitor the entire index with hundreds of component stocks.

S&P500 stock index is a common fund of choice for ETF because this is an investment in US, No 1 economy in the world, through 500 top US stocks.  SPY is a popular ETF by SPDR on S&P500.  Let’s learn how to buy low sell high for medium term trading.  Currently S&P500 is near to historical high price, long term optimism is moderate high, not suitable for investing.  However, for medium term traders, each correction of mid-term optimism (see chart below) below 25%, creates a new trading opportunity to buy low.  The reward to risk ratio for mid-term trading is around 2:1 (66% upside vs 34% downside, due to 34% Optimism).  Over the past 4 years, SPY ETF has appreciated by 72% due to capital gains in S&P500 stocks.  It is relatively safer to trade SPY ETF (through S&P500) compared to trade 1 US stock.

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Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market Tagged: , , ,
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