Key Learning Summary of Ein55 Business Analysis Course: Business Valuation

Ein55 Business Analysis Course - Business Valuation

The Ein55 students have learned the details of Business Analysis Course #2 (Business Valuation) from Ein55 Mentor Kean Lim, understanding how to evaluate values of a company with stock, as well as avoiding accounting traps.  Here is the key summary:

1) Check what is the Auditor’s Opinion

– Unqualified / Qualified / Adverse / Unable to give an opinion (Disclaimer)

2) Know why ROE is rising or falling, high or low

– Net profit margin, Asset turnover, Financial leverage

3) Check whether a company uses Aggressive Accounting

– Aggressive revenue recognition

– Days Sales Outstanding

– Days Inventory

– Large changes in operating expenses

– Over-dependence on acquisition

– Quality of earnings

4) Derive the intrinsic values based on

– asset value

– earning value

– growth value

5) Combine various valuation methods with Optimism Strategies

– buy at price below the value, selling at price above the value.

6) Investor can purchase the best stock in the world, but if one buys it at a high premium, it can be a bad investment.

– Valuation is important and is a huge part of the game.

Investing in a company is akin to being in partnership with its business. It is therefore crucial for investors to possess the ability to analyse and make sense of the businesses of interest. The beauty of investment is that one can be selective to only invest in businesses that are profitable and therefore can bring about considerable capital gains in future.

Dr Tee provides free high-quality investment education regularly to the general public, including Business Analysis (BA), Fundamental Analysis (FA), Technical Analysis (TA), Optimism Analysis (OA) and Personal Analysis (PA). The knowledge could help a person for a lifetime, after mastering the right skills of stock investment.  Register Here.

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

3 Strategies on Oil & Gas Stocks Investing

Oil & Gas Stocks
Winter time (low optimism) of crude oil is longer than expected, after recovery over the past few years, it corrected down again over the past 1 year, recovering again over the past few months. Many oil & gas stocks, especially for upstream sector, revenue of business is very much dependent on crude oil price, therefore the cyclic business performance has resulted in cyclic share prices.
 
For oil & gas stocks, besides business fundamental, success in stock investing or trading is mainly dependent on alignment with prices of crude oil which trends are time-dependent. Here are 3 strategies for 3 different types of investors with 3 different personalities:
 
1) Long Term Investor (decades): Uptrend (Low Optimism)
Unlike stock market with market cycle of about 10 years, crude oil is a commodity which has a much longer market cycle of 20-30 years, therefore a very long term view (decades) is required. Crude oil is a critical energy related commodity, its price could not drop to $0 as a commodity (possible for stock in crisis), therefore it is a giant in nature. Similar to property, long term trend of crude oil is increasing over the decades, currently at low optimism (potential buying zone). However, if an investor does not have holding power, could make a loss as buying low could ending up lower if holding power is weak.
 
Currently, the second dip over the past 5 years have established a higher low which is a strong support to crude oil long term investor. However, since global stock and property markets are at moderate high optimism, if the next global financial crisis is triggered by another asset class of investment market, commodity market could be affected despite the optimism is not high as global funds are connected through common pool of investor with money.
 
Therefore, it is relatively safer to hold a shorter term position, applying trading on oil & gas stocks. One could compromise to become a “short term investor”, i.e. buying strong fundamental oil & gas stocks as if an investor but buying or selling the stocks by following the price trends in shorter term as if a trader. This is an integration of trading into investing in view of global economy and stock market.
 
2) Medium Term Trader (years): Uptrend (Moderate Low Optimism)
Medium term trading is a compromise between investing and trading. Current trend is uptrend at moderate low optimism with recovery in prices of both crude oil (commodity) and oil & gas stocks over the past few months which is ideal for trader who is interested in buy low sell high for capital gains. However, since the market uncertainty is high (eg. unknown on outcome of US-China trade war negotiation by 1 Mar 2019), a trading plan with S.E.T. is required: Stop Loss, Entry Price, Target Price.
 
Despite focusing in trading, a trader could consider strong fundamental oil & gas stocks (eg. growing or recovery in earning and cashflow), avoiding stocks with relatively high debt (eg. Debt/Equity >> 1) which may not last through the winter time of crude oil.
 
3) Short Term Trader (months): Downtrend (High Optimism)
Over the past 6 months, for short term traders (buy low sell high every few months), the current trend for oil & gas stocks is downtrend at high optimism, aligning with direction of crude oil. The probability is higher for shorting, especially when supported by some negative financial news (eg. US-China trade war, UK Brexit, China economy slowdown, bankrupt of another oil & gas company, etc). Similarly, shorting in short term requires a trading plan with S.E.T., except the strategy is reversed (making money when price is falling). A trader who is not comfortable with shorting (higher potential risk when not managed properly) may also adopt a “Wait” strategy, waiting for stronger uptrend of crude oil and oil & gas stocks.
 
Of course, for very short term traders (weeks or days), there are different trends and optimism. There are always trends within trends, depending on timeframes of investing which is personality dependent. Therefore, before an investor or trader plan on position of stocks, should strongly consider own holding power, risk tolerance level, reward expectation, emotional control, etc.
 
Interested readers may learn from Dr Tee free 4hr course to construct a dream team stock portfolio with global blue chip stocks (including oil & gas crisis stock investing). Register Here: www.ein55.com
Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

How to Buy Stock as If Driving Investment Car?

How to Drive Investment Car
Stock trading is similar to driving a car.  The driver should have obtained a license to drive. An experienced driver could drive safely even using one eye or one hand holding the steering wheel. If the car is given to a 8 years old kid, this could be a disaster. Similarly, a stock trader should master the skill to trade, a licence to drive the investment car.  A beginner who starts stock trading or investing without proper knowledge is considered risky while an experienced investor is used to the thunderstorms (financial crisis) in stock market, knowing when to slowdown or speed up.
The driving skill would give the driver a good start but it could not guarantee safety all the time as car condition could be different. A strong car is similar to strong fundamental stock, even when there is an unexpected accident (financial crisis), it could protect the driver (investor).  In the world of stock market, an investor could even diversify the risks with 10 stocks, as if having 10 different cars driving at the same time, even when one breaks down, there are other 9 other choices to move on, journey of financial freedom is not affected.
For additional safety, besides wearing safety belt, a driver could buy comprehensive insurance coverage to protect against unforeseen accidents. Similarly, an investor could consider low-debt strong cash company for investment as safety belt, following price trend with breakout for confirmation as premium for insurance.
Some drivers (traders) like a fast Ferrari (short term trading) while others prefer slower antique car (long term investing), there is no right or wrong in the choice. Each driver has to operate the car within safety margin under own’s control.  Beyond the limitation, accident could happen which is beyond driver’s tolerance level.  Similarly, a stock trader or investor has to know the risk tolerance level and reward expectation.  Alignment of personality with own investment strategy is the key for success. A good driver would find own’s favorite car which matching own needs: price, color, speed, functions, etc.
So, have you found your desired car (stocks) for investment? Learn from Dr Tee through 4hr free high-quality stock investment course to learn how to form a strong investment portfolio with 10 dream team stocks globally.  You will master What To Buy, When to Buy/Sell through Fundamental Analysis (FA), Technical Analysis (TA), Personal Analysis (PA), integrated with Optimism Strategies. Register Here: www.ein55.com
Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

Investing in Parent Stock vs Subsidiary Stock

When 2 large businesses are combined, it does not mean it would become a giant stock. Capitaland + Ascendas-Singbridge of Temasek are merged into the 9th largest global property investment company (Asian largest), 51% shares is under control of Temasek.
 
Before merging, Capitaland has been a slower growth giant stock due to its large size. An investor may not need to consider large parent company. Instead, its subsidiary company with much smaller size could be more profitable, eg. Capitamall Trust (SGX: C38U) of Capitaland and Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U) are stronger REIT / property giant stocks than its parent company stock.
 
A giant is not defined by its size of business, but by its internal strength of strong fundamental. An investor could have the best of 2 worlds investing in a strong subsidiary stock of a large parent company (fine if slow in growth), enjoying the fruit of profitable business in smaller market with protection of parent company.
 
For example, one could invest in Vicom (nearly monopoly business) with protection by parent company, ComfortDelgro. During the last subprime crisis in year 2008-2009, share price of Capitamall Trust drops significantly, Capitaland strongly support this subsidiary with injection of more funds during global financial crisis.
 
Learn from Dr Tee in free 4hr stock investment course to invest in various giant stocks of small cap, mid cap and large cap companies globally. Register Here: www.ein55.com
Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

Cigarette Stock – Unhealthy Business for Investment

With increasing health conscious and anti-smoking campaigns since young, tobacco / cigarette companies may not have bright future for investing. Percentage of smokers in populations of most countries (including US, Japan, Europe, Singapore, etc) are declining over the past decade with higher taxes (expenses) by local government, resulting in lower earning of tobacco / cigarette companies, therefore weaker share prices.
 
Philip Morris (NYSE: PM), owner of Marlboro Cigarette, is a crisis giant stock at low optimism (<25%), a low quality investing opportunity induced by declining earning over the past 5 years. Parent company of Philip Morris is Altria Group (NYSE: MO), also a crisis giant stock at low optimism but having much stronger fundamental, therefore a better choice for cigarette stock investing.
 
British American Tobacco (Bursa: 4261), owner of Lucky Strike cigarette, was a value investing stock in the past but with declining business and share prices, it may not be not suitable for long term investing again despite a low optimism share price.
 
“Buy Low Sell High” is an universal secret of making money in stocks, main condition is the business has to be strong and sustainable, then each price correction is an opportunity to buy at discounted price. However, “Buy Low” may “Get Lower”, “Buy Cheap” may “Go Bankrupt”, if buying crisis stock with high debt, declining business (earning, cash flow, asset values, etc). So, do not fall into value trap by blindly “Buy Low”. Integration with Fundamental Analysis (FA) is required.
 
Buy a stock implies being a business partner. If uncomfortable in supporting “unhealthy” businesses (eg. tobacco, gambling, alcoholic drinks, etc), there are many other healthy businesses (eg. healthcare / hospital stocks) for stock investment.
 
Learn from Dr Tee in free 4hr stock investment course for public on various healthy businesses of giant stocks. Register Here: www.ein55.com
Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

Key Learning Points of Ein55 Graduate Gathering 6 Jan 2019

Ein55 Graduate Gathering 2019
Thanks to overwhelming responses of Ein55 graduates, we just had the largest graduate gathering event today with 550 attendees, entire 550-seats auditorium is full (see group photo taken). I am touched to see a few late comers were even willing to sit on the floor, not to miss the learning.
 
Here are the 7 key learning points for sharing:
1) Year 2018 is a bearish global stock market, confirmed by the last bullish stock market, US (contributed to 50% value of global stocks), which has turned bearish for short term since Q4/2018.
 
2) There are 2 main possibilities: major correction or global financial crisis. Regardless of which outcome, mastery of 4 exit strategies are explained:
2.1) Exit when direction is wrong with risk tolerance reached
2.2) Exit with counter-trend strategies
2.3) Exit with follow-trend strategies
2.4) No Exit is required (only certain criteria allows so)
 
3) Stock investment is an integrated plan with 5 factors: LO-FTP, maximum of 5 stars for the best opportunity, minimum of 3 stars are required.
L = Levels 1-4 (alignment with smart money)
O = Optimism 0-100% (alignment with market emotions)
F = FA strength (alignment with business)
T = TA trends (alignment with prices)
P = Personal Actions (alignment with personality)
 
4) Defensive-growth-dividend giant stock is ideal dreamteam stock for long term investing during Levels 1-4 crisis. A few examples were given.
 
5) Decision making in stock is personality dependent. Long term investor may consider to buy at long term low optimism as contrarian investor while a short term trader may short at the same stock to make profits. Both could be correct actions. Do not blindly copy another expert’s best strategies, need to internalize them, forming own unique personalized investing.
 
6) 2 major actions are required: Spring Cleaning (if having stocks, following 5-steps processes given) and forming of Dreamteam Stocks (if do not have stocks).
 
7) Cash is King. A smart investor would not lock in the cash for over 1 year commitment (eg. long term bond of a few years). Crisis could become opportunity when cash is used at the right time in future with consideration of giant stocks and Levels 1-4 crisis.
 
General public may catch up with Global Stock Market Outlook 2019 by Dr Tee through free 4 hours investment course. Register Here: www.ein55.com
Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

Reduce Electricity Bill in Singapore with Investment Knowledge

Reduce Electricity Bill
Singapore has opened up electricity market to different service providers, starting from west, central / northeast (my area is just invited), will extend to east in next few months.
 
Electricity tariff (varying from 18 to 27 cents/kwh over the past 10+ years of market cycle) is partially related to natural gas price (remaining is fixed cost of power generation, so volatility amount may not be similar but general trends are aligned) which is connected to oil price. Current rate of 25 cents/kwh is still on high side, recent major correction (30% dip) of crude oil in Q4/2018 has not fully reflected in currently quarterly electricity tariff.
 
We may apply the principles of “trend-following”, consider shorter contract (eg. 6 months) while observing the trend of EE prices over the next 2 quarters since the prices are still at “high optimism”, may not worth it to lock in for 12 or 24 months. The partial relationship of oil price trend (now is weaker) and market cycle range (18 to 27 cents/kwh) may be used to position the “optimism” of current EE price.
 
Regardless which choice, it will be always cheaper than SP (Singapore Power) rates, so we should make the choice of new EE service provider ASAP when it is available in your area. With intense competition, it is hard for EE power generation company to make profits, one company has recently withdrawn from the market.
 
You may benchmark prices different EE companies here (enter size of house and average kwh used monthly). Comment below on your choice of company + package (fixed price or 23% discount over standard SP price), stating the reason of your choice.

Knowledge of investment (eg. commodity market: crude oil, etc) could be helpful in our daily lives, including reduction of electricity bill. You may sign up for free 4hr investment course by Dr Tee to learn about different investment markets: stock, property, commodity, bond and forex.
Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

Global Stock Market 2019 Risk and Opportunities

Stock Market 2019

Happy New Year 2019 to Ein55 Readers!

Year 2018 has been a bearish year for global stock market including Singapore, US, China, Hong Kong, Europe, etc. Crisis is nearly always an opportunity for stock market if one knows What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell. There are 2 possibilities for Year 2019, both are “good news”, either a major correction (moderate return, suitable for trading) or a global financial crisis (tremendous return, suitable for investing).

1) Major Correction (>10-25% discount) – Political Economy

Uncertainty in US-China trade war has resulted in major correction in global stock market, starting with the rest of the world (except US) in beginning of the year 2018, then dragging US stock market along to join the bearish train since Q4/2018. Before Q4/2018, US was the only major economy which still has bullish stock market, therefore Trump was confident to fight against China and the rest of the world to reach the best trade deals for US.

Trump views S&P500 as his performance indicator which has risen by about 30% since he got elected 2 years ago to a peak of 2900+ points. With S&P500 falling below critical 2500 points (lowest was 2300+ points) over the last quarter, Trump has to think twice as his KPI could become negative if falling below 2200 points for S&P500. Both US and China have to compromise during 90 days cooling period, reaching a win-win deal by end of Feb 2019. If not, it may not be a just a major correction.

China has suffered in real economy, not just a “crisis” in stock market. Recent China PMI is falling below the critical 50 points, if trade war continues further, China could suffer long term recession as Japan several decades ago. Burst of China property market with high corporate debts could make it worse. If China is willing to “give face” to Trump with major compromise, Trump could declare “victory” to end the Episode #2 of Trade War to support his re-election for second term US President by end of next year.

So, current stock market is mainly suitable for short term trading, applying trend-following strategy. VIX (Volatility Index) has been above critical 20-30 points, daily market volatility could wipe out many day traders. Since short term stock market is bearish, any recovery of stock market could be short-lived, a more consistent uptrend has to be established before entry. Based on probability, shorting strategy in short term still has higher winning rate but careful selection of stocks (eg. weak fundamental with downtrend with certain form of crisis) is important with enforcement of S.E.T. (Stop Loss, Entry Price, Target Price) in trading plan.

2) Global Financial Crisis (>25-50% discount) – Systematic Risks

Political economy (eg. US-China trade war, US interest rate hike, etc) alone may not be powerful enough, when combining with a Black Swan (eg. burst in property / commodity / forex markets) at high stock market optimism, then it could trigger the next global financial crisis which is overdue.

Some stocks could go bankrupt during crisis at Level 1 (company crisis), Level 2 (sector crisis), Level 3 (country crisis) or Level 4 (world crisis). Therefore, it is important to consider 10 fundamentally strong giant stocks (minimize unsystematic risks), buying at low optimism price (minimize systematic risks), aligning with L1-L4 crisis.

Position in current global stock market requires alignment with own personality, eg. time frames of interest, risk tolerance level, reward expectation, etc. Unique personalized strategy is required, defining own 10 dream team stocks with entry and exit.

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Crisis is an Opportunity only for those who are prepared. You may join the next 4hr free stock trading/investing course by Dr Tee. Register in www.ein55.com

For overseas readers, you may join the online stock investment course by Dr Tee ($100, currently at special rate of $25).

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Root Finding Trip to China Fujian (寻根之旅) with Personal Analysis of China Stocks Opportunity

I just complete a meaningful cultural tour with family to Fujian of China, having better understanding of different dialect groups common in Singapore & Malaysia: Hokkien, Teochew, Hakka, Fuzhou (Hockchew), etc.
 
My grandparents came to Nanyang (Muar, Malaysia) about 100 years ago from Yong Chun (永春) of Fujian, China, to pursue a better life. Even my own parents don’t have chance to visit China. So, after travelling to many big cities globally, I have decided to visit “ulu” area of China to understand the original root of my family. 饮水思源!
 
The trip over 9 days, travelling over few thousands km around Fujian (福建)& Guangdong (广东) provinces, covering second / third tier cities such as Xiamen/Gulangyu (厦门/鼓浪屿), Chaozhou/Shantou (潮州/汕头), Meizhou (梅州), Wuyishan (武夷山), Yongding (永定), Yong’an (永安), Fuzhou (福州), Quanzhou (泉州), etc.
 
It is an eye opening for me, especially I can hear Hokkien spoken in Xiamen and changes in dialects in different cities, as well as different local signature dishes for meals. I have forgotten how many cups of tea and beer which I have drunk in the entire journey. The special show (印象大红袍) designed by Zhang YiMou is truly enjoyable with 360 degrees rotating seats around the nature.
 
We also visited the old house of ancestor for late Mr Lee Kuan Yew in Dapu (大埔), a museum with statue of Mr Lee is built nearby there. The tour guide could not understand why Mr Lee never really visited this place before last time. I explained to him that Mr Lee does not want people to remember him in this way, this is related to old house incident in Singapore. This makes Mr Lee “immortal” as we would remember of what he has done for Singapore, not just respecting a statue.
 
I was very touched when the tour guide pointed at the harbour of city which could be the same port of departure for many of our ancestors 100 years ago. Their sacrifices have given a better new life for the next generations.
 
Now looking back, China has been suffering over the past 100 years due to political instability. Over the past 2 decades, China joins the WTO, opening up the door to the external world, economic development is beyond imagination since then. China stock market has been falling into crisis with low optimism, many people worry on the impact of recent US-China trade war.
 
Here are my Personal Analysis (PA) of China stocks / economy based on observations in current trip, comparing with past experience in other China cities.
 
1) Consumer Stocks
China is still dependent on domestic market for consumer market, at least for smaller cities, few foreigners (non Chinese) there in smaller cities. This would help to reduce the impact of trade war with sustainable domestic consumption. Stocks with consumer staples (essential products such as food & beverages, household products, etc) are relatively more defensive due to popular support on daily basis, Consumer discretionary is suffering, shopping malls with branded premium products have few customers, especially RMB is getting weaker with declining China stock market.
 
China is no longer “cheap”, even with 1 SGD to 5 RMB, prices of certain products or services (eg. movie ticket, milk tea, Big Mac) is only half of Singapore or even more expensive than here. This is tremendous pressure to China local people staying in cities, high cost of living (property, spending, etc) with slower growth in salary.
 
2) Healthcare Stocks
China Chinese people have very different practices, eg. “aunties” could wake up 7am+ in winter to exercise qigong, then dancing as a group in the evening. China has too many people, older generation would retire earlier to give the chance of job opportunities to younger generation. Staying active is a way to remain healthy, dancing in the park or square is one of the best options.
 
Healthcare stocks would have brighter future due to aging population with rising in middle class, having strong spending power. Despite the new second child policy, some families are used to 1 child or no child at all (similar to Singapore experience), therefore spending on oneself could be more.
 
3) One-Belt One-Road Stocks
Even before One-Belt One-Road initiative, China has pumped in a few trillions of dollars since year 2008 (last global economic crisis) to build up infrastructure (highways, high speed railways, long bridges, mega buildings, etc). The spider web of connections have helped money (products & services) to flow all over the China, balancing between cities and rural areas, connecting to external world.
 
Compared with trip to China 20 years ago with many bicycles seen, now the scene on the road is replaced with cars everywhere, not even motorbikes, a sign of modern developing country. Highway is getting important, it is easy money for China stocks with monopoly business to collect toll fee.
 
Sinopec (HKEX: 0386.HK) petrol stations could be found nearly everywhere, the business fundamental is strong, better than counterpart PetroChina (HKEX: 0857.HK). Both giant stocks are the second & third largest oil & gas companies in the world, currently at low optimism in share prices. Brent crude oil price has dropped below US$60/barrel, combining with bearish China stock market, oil & gas stocks in China are heavily corrected.
 
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Chinese people could live in any continent or city globally but each generation will have its unique root. Malaysia is root or hometown to me and my parents while Singapore is extended root for my own children as they are born and growing up here. Investment could be integrated into our daily lives, mastery of financial literacy would help us and our future generations, there is no need to migrate again due to financial reasons.
Crisis is an opportunity for giant stocks. You may learn in free 4 hours stock investment course by Dr Tee to integrate Optimism, FA (Fundamental Analysis), TA (Technical Analysis) and PA (Personal Analysis) for global giant stocks. Register Here: www.ein55.com
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Job vs Hobby 

Job vs Hobby
Dr Tee has been working in semiconductor industry for about 20 years in the past, climbing up corporate ladder from engineer to manager to director to VP, eventually I am CEO of my own company (10% semicon consulting + 90% investment education).

I was the General Chair of 10th EPTC 2008 Conference (Top IC packaging conference in Asia), 10 years have passed since then, good to gather with many old friends in tonight’s 20th anniversary of EPTC 2018 conference again.

I am glad to meet up today with a few Ein55 students who are working in semicon industry in Sentosa Resort World Convention Center. I have also shared my experience with younger members in semiconductor field, here is the summary:

1) Semiconductor is cyclic in nature. Staff could work hard (sometimes overnight without sleep, I did that in my early years as well) for company to make money but when business is bad, company may not show mercy to layoff staff, simply Hire & Fire when needed.

2) It is important to plan ahead during bull market when company business is doing well, converting the active income into an investment portfolio before retirement. A professional job should be a hobby for us while investment by right is an hobby, should become primary focus for us.

3) You may need to a PhD for engineering / semicon but only need primary school (PSLE) qualification for stock investment. In fact, many smart people lose money in stocks, even university professors are interested to know how to invest to profit in lifetime, not just depend on a job with salary, working till retirement. Stock investment can be very simple (if following step by step on proven methods such as Optimism + FA +TA + PA) but also can be very complicated (if you try other speculative ways such as listening to news and rumors).

4) When working in semicon / technology field, stock investment should be on other industries (eg. property, healthcare, F&B, etc) for diversification as each sector has its own cycle. If work and invest in only 1 sector, risk is high when sector crisis comes (eg. Oil & Gas, Dot Com bubble, etc)

5) We were in Genting Resort World, so I use the example of shareholding is as if owning a casino table within the big casino, sharing the profits gained without need to put in any active effort, therefore it is called passive income.

There is a fine line between job and hobby if we know how to balance. We only need to invest 10% time on investment but the outcome can be more important than 90% of time spent in job which help other people’s company to make money. Invest in oneself, not others.

I will share more life lessons (investment / work) with members in tomorrow session during EPTC 2018. For others, you are welcomed to listen to my 4 hours free investment course, register in www.ein55.com, this could be the best investment of time, learn with open mind, it is not a sales talk.

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