Dr Tee (Ein55)

5 Global “Ah Seng” Giant Stocks

Posted on November 4, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

There is a question asked about 5 “Ah Seng” global dividend giant stocks shared by me during the charity course. Interested Ein55 graduates, you may login to Ein55 Graduate Network, I have given details of these 5 Ah Seng giant stocks there, could be positioned either as mid-fielder or defender in investment portfolio. For these 5 Ah Seng giant stocks, 2 are Singapore Ah Seng stocks, 2 are Malaysia Ah Seng stocks, 1 is Hong Kong Ah Seng stock. Perhaps you could guess a few of them.

For Singapore Property Sector (mostly undervalue stocks, some were covered in Discounted NAV stock charity course before), besides Ah Seng (Chip Eng Seng, SGX: C29), there are also other traditional stocks with common Chinese names:

Ah Lian + Ah Beng = Lian Beng (SGX: L03)

Ah Huat = Low Keng Huat (SGX: F1E)

Ah Lian = Sim Lian (delisted a few years ago)

Ah Lian + Ah Seng = Hock Lian Seng (SGX: J2T)

The names of Singapore property stocks show that founders of companies are quite traditional (could be more reliable and trustworthy), operating the business in an honest way.

Name of stock is not critical. More importantly, it must be a giant stock with strong business fundamental. Regardless Ah Beng or Ah Seng, the one could make money in business consistently is a good giant stock to consider for investment.

Learn from Dr Tee free 4hr stock investment course on global giant stocks to invest (What to Buy, When to Buy / Sell). Register Here: www.ein55.com

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

Filed Under: Stock Market Tagged: Ah Seng Stocks

$176,000 Donations over 9 Charity Courses in 5 Years for Tzu Chi (慈济) with Summary of High Dividend Stocks

Posted on November 3, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Dr Tee, Ein55 Mentors & Graduates have together organised 9 charity investment courses (REITs in Nov 2015, May 2017 and May 2019, High Dividend Stocks in Mar 2016, Oct 2017 and Nov 2019, Capital Growth Stocks in Apr 2018 and Discounted NAV Stocks in Sep 2016 and Nov 2018) in the past 5 years, donating net income of around $176,000 to Tzu Chi 慈济 (Singapore).

We hope to inspire more Ein55 Graduates to reach out the society, helping others who are in need. More importantly, they have also learned the secrets of making money through investment. When more Ein55 Graduates are successful financially, they could also contribute back to the society to help more people in future.

Here are key learning points from the recent Charity Course on High Dividend Stocks:
1) Invest for dividend income is one of the important criteria that stock investor must not ignore because historical data shown that
1.1) S&P 500 (1932 to 2014) – dividend contribute 45% of portfolio return
1.2) STI 30 (2003 to 2013) – dividend contribute 49% of portfolio return

2) Financial Analysts Journal indicates that a portfolio of 10 stocks will diversify >75% of total investment risk but out of it 19.2% is systematic risk which is un-diversifiable such as change in global economy situation, interest rate change, natural disaster etc, with 30 stocks will diversify >95% of unsystematic risk (operational related risks), further add on number of stocks would not reduce significant risk in the portfolio but increase difficulty to monitor. For individual investor, suggested number of stock in a portfolio is 10 to 30 stocks.

3) 3 main criteria for a High Dividend Yield (DY) Stock:
3.1) DY > 6% for Singapore stock or 7% for oversea stock base on entry price,
DY>/= Risk Free rate + LT inflation rate + local/oversea currency pair CAGR
SG : CPF SA 4% + 10yr inflation 2% = 6%
HK : 10yr TB 2.0% + 10yr inflation 3.0% + 10yr CAGR SGD/HKD 2% = 7%
US : 10yr TB 2.5% + 10yr inflation 2.5% + 10yr CAGR SGD/USD 2% = 7%

3.2) Continue 5-year non-stop payout dividend and no reduction in DPS (Dividend Per Share), best is growing year after year. For overseas stock, looking for dividend stocks with 10 years non-stop payout.

3.3) Strong fundamental stocks (eg. ROE > 5% and other criteria) to avoid value trap of high dividend yield with weaker fundamental or lower share price.

4) Telcos, Utilities, Banks, Consumer Staples and Consumer Monopoly are considered defensive sectors that can make money in any economic environment, therefore ideal for dividend stock investing. People usually will not shut off their power, close bank accounts, give up their mobile line or Internet, stop buying food & drink or stop buying toothpaste when times get tough. Furthermore, some of these companies have grown to big scale that dominate the market, they are either natural monopoly or near monopoly, duopolistic or oligopoly in the industry.

We should drive the money (helping others when you are successful), not driven by the money (making money only for own gain).

Investors should learn the unique LOFTP Strategies (Level 1-4, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical, Personal Analysis) developed by Dr Tee to choose strong global stocks, buying them at low price, then holding for consistent dividend payout or selling for high capital gains. High-quality free stock investment courses are provided by Dr Tee to the public.

Register Here to learn High Dividend Stocks & other 10 Strategies for Free: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: Charity Course

Stock Market Cycles & Potential Crisis (1937 vs 2020)

Posted on October 28, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Smart investor, Ray Dalio has compared 1937 vs 2020 market cycles (you may google for more), many good insights to show the similarities (eg. share prices went up over 300% for both cycles as shown in chart above). Here are my additional views, different from or similar to other analysts:

1) 1937 crisis did not really took 17 years to recover (unless counted from peak to peak), there were actually 2 market cycles in between, about 8-9 in each cycle, quote comparable with last few decades of market cycle. Global financial crisis is scary but typically it should not last more than 1 decade long.

2) Owning gold would not help much, especially buying gold at higher price or even at fair price because gold won’t be able generate income, simply a tool to preserve its value. However, buying gold at low optimism price (eg < $800 which is undervalue) would help in long term but it may not be required (property could also hedge against inflation)

3) Buy dividend stocks to fight against crisis should not be the main strategy, has to be combined with other considerations. Capital gains, dividend and business fundamental are closely related. A smart investor would not focus in dividend alone, also need to pay attention to potential capital loss (eg, when holding a stock through a bear market).

4) Agree that cash is king when used at the right time. Knowledge of market is important to buy low but knowledge of fundamental is important to avoid buy low get lower.

Market cycle ending 1937 may not be exactly the same as 2020 as exact history may not repeat itself. However, greed and fear would repeat itself as investors 100 years ago were also human who care about the hard earn money.

However, smart investors need to take proactive actions, eg:
A1) Do spring cleaning, take profits or cut losses, converting to more cash as future opportunity fund.
A2) Prepare for dream team portfolio with at least 10 giant stocks for diversification. Know What to Buy, When to Buy / Sell
A3) Train up oneself, aligning the investment strategies with own unique personality, so that one would execute actions A1 & A2.

An integrated approach would help, eg LOFTP strategies (Levels 1-4, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical & Personal Analysis). Opportunities are for those who are prepared! Interested readers may hear 2020 Stock Market Outlook in free 4hr stock investment course by Dr Tee. Register Here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing

Selection Criteria of 5 Different Investment Markets (Stocks, Properties, Bonds, Commodities, Forex / Cash)

Posted on October 24, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Stocks (eg. Dow Jones Index / individual stocks), Commodities (eg. Gold / Crude Oil), Bonds (eg. US treasury / corporate bonds), Properties (house / land), Forex / Cash, are 5 different investment markets, behaving in unique way with different market cycles, capital gains and probability of success. Investors need to choose or consider the right investment market as an overall investment portfolio, aligning with own unique personality. Let’s learn the main selection criteria:

1) In all investment markets over the past 100 years, Stock Market is proven to have the most upside potential over a long term (at the expense of more uncertainties in shorter term for traders) but requiring knowledge of choosing giant stocks (strong fundamental stocks), ideally buying at low optimism of stock market cycle (eg. during global financial crisis) and hold for long term or selling high at next high optimism of stock market cycle. Many investors fail due to selection of junk stocks with weak fundamental, holding for long term, resulting in tremendous losses (when company goes bankrupt eventually, share price would drop to $0). Strong fundamental giant stocks could grow in both business and share prices over 10 times or even 100 times over decades of long term investing.

2) Property Market by default is a giant (especially for country such as Singapore or Hong Kong with limited land and growing population and rising economy over the decades), main investment tool is leveraging (loan, which is similar to CFD in stock market) for higher return, best to integrate with low optimism of property market cycle (usually 3-6 months after the low optimism of stock market cycle), hedging against inflation (about 2-3% yearly) and collect rental income with capital gains. Property stocks or REITs are hybrid of property and stock markets, having the value of property and cyclic nature of stock prices.

3) Bond Market is lower return and “safer” but some could end up as junk bonds (eg. Hyflux and some oil & gas companies in crisis), business with high debt and negative operating cashflow or losses with high bond yield is a potential value trap as it may not be sustainable in long term. In the current market, short term corporate bonds are relatively safer (<12 months maturity) if the companies have strong fundamental, could be better than cash as parking fund to wait for next investment opportunity while enjoying higher return than bank interest for cash deposit in banks or government bond (eg. Singapore Saving Bond).

4) Commodity Market usually has longer market cycle (eg. about 20 years for crude oil, 30 years for gold), may not be suitable for long term investing as it could not generate passive income as stock (dividend) or property (rental) or bond (coupon) or even cash (interest). Commodities are mainly for trading to buy low sell high, knowledge of optimism in market cycle (short term or long term) will be important.

5) Cash is King when used at the right time. When other investment market optimism is high, investors may take profits, % cash or safe fund (eg. government bond) will be relatively higher as opportunity fund. Holding cash in different currencies require understanding of Forex. Saving cash in SGD has strength for holding (moderate appreciation against most global currencies) but more importantly, cash has to be converted into other investment opportunities above at certain point for higher return.

Learn from Dr Tee in Free 4hr investment courses to learn the investment clocks of Stocks, Properties, Commodities, Bonds and Forex / Cash: What to Buy, When to Buy / Sell. Register Here:

Filed Under: Bond Market, Commodity Market, Forex, Property Market, Stock Market

Retirement Fund Planning (Cash Saving vs Stocks Investment)

Posted on September 26, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

An investor may consider to change the usual way of cash saving for retirement fund (100% cash based). There is an alternative retirement fund plan which is stock investment based (could be 80% in 10-20 giant stocks + 20% cash as emergency fund). One has an option to do saving or fixed deposit through stock market, not simply saving in bank with lower return.

Cash from active income (decades of working) could be converted into a portfolio of giant stocks with growing business (best during financial crisis with significant discount in share price with the same value), generating free cashflow, giving dividend (which also supports the rising price in future if one could wait patiently). A retiree could depend on a portfolio of stocks in retirement fund to pay for expenses with dividend, if needed, partial profit taking from capital gains without reducing the initial capitals. A yearly review is required to replace weaker stock (if fundamental or economic moat is weaker) with stronger stock. Usually for retirement fund, defensive growth and dividend stocks in growing sectors with stable country economy are preferred.

Let’s compare 2 types of retirement funds:
1) Conventional Retirement Fund (100% Cash from saving)
– Growing fund by cash deposit with bank interest rate or very safe investment (eg. Singapore Saving Bonds) with 2-3% return, barely offset the long term inflation of 2-3%.
– Depleting fast, requiring huge amount of initial capital due to low return with no income after retirement.- Require huge initial capital (eg. over $1M) to maintain a reasonable quality of life after retirement with low interest which is comparable with inflation rate.

2) Retirement Fund (80% in Giant Stocks, 20% cash as urgent fund)
– After retirement, portfolio of giant stocks (10-20 for diversification to minimize unsystematic risks) could continue to generate an average return, typically capital gains + dividend yield > 10%-20% yearly, actual return depends on individual strategy and market condition. During the downturn of market (assuming not selling stocks) during crisis (could be 1-2 years), 20% cash or dividend from stocks could help as buffer if there is capital loss during this period.
– Initial capital of retirement fund may not be depleted if capital gain + dividend > expenses. If not, plan for an initial capital (which could be lower amount), including selling of partial stocks yearly (as if fixed deposit in stock market, selling stocks for cash), gradually towards max lifespan, eg, very conservative planning of 100 or 110 years old (a good problem to have if so long life).

– Planning for retirement fund depends on many factors, including lifestyle after retirement (monthly expense with consideration of inflation), safety of investment, etc. Assuming a conservative return of capital gain + dividend yield, total of 10%/year, assuming someone who retires at 60 years old, required fund = $5000 / month (average expense with consideration of future inflation) x 12 months = $60000/year, then one would need at least $600,000 capital to generate 10% income yearly to pay for this expense (assume initial capital of retirement fund can be kept till end of life, then pass to next generation).
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In short, start retirement fund planning now, it is never too late (yourself in future will thank yourself now for taking action). Even one has already retired, still can modify the plan (eg instead of live with past cash saving, also considering saving through a portfolio of defensive growing dividend stocks), aligning with own personality and individual needs. This way, one could lessen the burden on country or next generation. One could enjoy happy and fruitful retirement life when financial need is taken care at early stage.

Even after one has stopped working after retirement, the money (capital) accumulated over the past decades of hardwork could continue to work for us but need to learn the right ways of investing. Readers may learn from free 4hr stock investment course by Dr Tee to plan for own retirement fund with defensive growing dividend stocks globally in diversified growing sectors.
Register Here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Stock Market

Dual Roles of REIT Investing as Defender and Striker

Posted on September 14, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

REIT investing is a popular investment choice to collect passive income through dividends. By law, 90% of net income from a REIT has to be redistributed back to shareholders in the form of dividend. A REIT could give dividend 4 times (4 quarters) a year, if an investor could gather a few strong REITs, it is possible to generate a stream of consistent quarterly or even monthly income. One could become financial free with REIT investing as the income (passive income of dividends and capital gain of stock prices) depends on the capital for investment which is scalable and dividend yield which could be maximized (depending on dividend / share price). Singapore REITs could give out more dividends due to tax exemption, therefore the average dividend yield is usually higher than overseas REITs.

Due to stock market uncertainty over the past few years, Singapore investors prefer to invest in defensive sector such as REITs or blue chip stocks (eg. 30 STI component stocks). As a result, REITs prices have gone up to higher optimism of 53%, resulting in lower dividend yield, narrower spread with nearly risk-free return such as Singapore Saving Bond. Most people consider REITs for longer term investing, aiming for 5-10% dividend yield yearly. However, over the past 1 year, some REITs are behaving as striker with over 20% return in only 6 months of trading.

As investor or trader has 2 options when considering REIT investing:
1) Investing REIT for Long Term (Defender)
Successful REIT investing requires selection of REITs with strong fundamentals, eg. consistent uptrend quarterly dividend payment, supported by steady free cashflow generated from REITs portfolio. However, during global financial crisis, unlike property market which is more defensive in nature (dipping by only 25%), REIT has speculative element of stock market, therefore REIT price could even drop by 70%. It is crucial for long term REIT investing to align entry with a low optimism price during global financial crisis. However, during a very bearish stock market, most retail investors may not take actions due to great market fear (also fearful when others are fearful), therefore missing the opportunity of lifetime to buy low and hold for long term.

2) Trading REIT for Short Term (Striker)
Successful REIT trading requires selection of REITs with reasonable fundamental, supported by uptrend share prices in a bullish stock market (for long strategy). Short term trading mainly aims for capital gains in a few weeks or a few months, following either Buy Low Sell High, or Buy High Sell Higher strategies. When price trend is reversed, a REIT trader has to follow the exit strategy to sell the stock or even cut loss. It is risky for a REIT trader to enter for short term gain but reluctant to exit as a trader when price trend is reversed, changing to a role of investor halfway, may end up Buy High Sell Low, losing in REIT trading. Although overseas REITs may not be suitable as defender for dividend income, some strong giant REITs are excellent choices as strikers for capital gains with rising prices.

Successful REIT investing requires understanding difference between investing and trading, aligning with own unique personality (Personal Analysis). REIT investing also need the knowledge of Fundamental Analysis of business, Technical Analysis of prices, Level Analysis and Optimism Analysis of global stock market.

Readers may learn from Dr Tee FREE 4hr stock investment course on how to invest and trade REITs, applying LOFTP (Level, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical, Personal Analysis) Strategies to select global REITs and blue chip giant stocks, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy and When to Sell.

Register Here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Stock Market, Trading, Uncategorized, Value Investing Tagged: reit, reit investing

4 Signals for Global Financial Crisis – Dr Tee Important Sharing in Invest Fair 2019

Posted on August 21, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Dr Tee has been sharing his views on market outlook over the past 6 years of Invest Fair (2014-2019). The stock market condition each year is unique, a result of complex interactions with other investment markets (commodity, property, forex, bond), major economy and global political events.

In year 2019, stock market continues to be bumpy, especially for US and world stock markets at high optimism level. Dow Jones Index drops by 800 points over 1 day recently due to news of inverted bond yield (US bond yields, 2 years is higher than 10 years) which has been a reliable market recession signal over the past few decades.

Dr Tee has shared the following 4 major signals in Invest Fair 2019 to monitor for Global Financial Crisis:

1) Stock Market
Both world stock market and US stock market are falling down from higher optimism of over 75% optimism to current 63% Optimism, forming triple top with 3 trials so far. Political economy interventions (eg. cut down of interest rate or gentle ending of US-China trade war, etc) could prolong the bull market but the global stock market may require a crisis to reborn, forming another decade-long of natural market cycle.

2) Bond Market
US government bond yield is generally aligned in direction for longer term with stock market. With both short term and long term bond yields are falling downward from critical 3% to less than 2% (Optimism currently at 36%), money could be flowing at faster rate from stock market to a more defensive bond market or keeping as cash in banks. The inverted bond yield in US (especially for 2 years bond yield to exceed 10 years bond yield) is a risky signal for stock market, historically over the past 50 years, leading to 7 global financial crisis after 6-18 months when signal was observed.

3) Global Economy
US economy is still strong, job market (unemployment rate of 3.7%) is near the best performance over the past 50 years. However, the rest of the world (50% of world economy) are slowing down, including Singapore with current GDP growth rate of only 0.1% (42% Optimism with bearish trend). At the same time, US GDP growth rate is 2.3%, showing early sign of weakness with 71% Optimism in economy after falling down from past high level of 3% GDP.

4) Black Swan
Usually global financial crisis could be formed only after earlier 3 signals are aligned: falling down from high optimism global stock market, bond market and economy. However, an unexpected black swan (any negative global events, eg. political economy – US-China trade war, forex crisis, property crisis, commodity crisis, large-scale war, major natural disaster, etc) could trigger to accelerate the pace or prolong the duration of global financial crisis.

Externally, the uncertainty of US-China trade war continues to be a threat to global stock market, especially Trump’s first term of US presidency would last till end of year 2020, drastic change in political economy becomes a possible black swan. There is also risk of currency “war” if major economy choose to weaker own currency to have unfair advantage in export.

Trump may introduce more stimulation to economy (eg. requesting the Fed to cut more interest rate) over the next 1 year if want to keep the S&P500 at high optimism to show as report card to voters before running for second term presidential election next year.

“Crisis is a crisis” for those who are ignorant, junk stocks could go bankrupt in business, while blue chip stocks may also fall down in price with more than 50% capital loss. “Crisis in an opportunity” for those are prepared from now, learning to take the right actions (eg. sell high before buy low again for strong fundamental stocks, or position with short term trading in current stock market to profit from market volatility).

Learn from Dr Tee on 5 critical strategies to position in current stock market (LOFTP – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical & Personal Analysis), profiting from global financial crisis with early preparation. Sign up for free 4hr stock investment course by Dr Tee.

Register Here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged: global financial crisis, invest fair

Summary of Key Learning Points for Ein55 Graduate Gathering (July 2019)

Posted on July 19, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Some of you may miss the last Ein55 Graduate Gathering (14/7/2019), here are the key summary for your reference (educational purpose, please make your own decision):

1) Short-term Bond Strategy
Besides preserving cash in bank, another option for investor is holding short term bond while waiting for global financial crisis. Analyze company with bond <1-2 years maturity, ensure it is a giant, waiting for discount in unit bond price (<$100). G8 Education (GEM.AX) was quoted as an example (bond matured in May 2019), having both coupon interest (5.5%) and capital gains in bond price (8% when unit bond price was $92). Applying stock analysis in bond selection, focusing on business fundamental.

Here is bond screener (we will study more case studies of short term bonds in coming Ein55 coaching): https://www.ifastgm.com.sg/igm/bonds/bond-selector

2) There are 4 qualities of crisis stocks (long term low optimism), better ones are aligned with high level of crisis (eg. Level 3 country or Level 4 global) with better business fundamental. First Reit was quoted as case study, Level 1 (individual stock) is strong but related party (major customer & sponsor), Lippo Karawaci is weaker in business (negative operating cashflow for many years), therefore First Reit is an average quality of crisis stock.

The precondition for crisis stock investing is protection by its business (value), only then it worth to buy low, then either sell high or hold long term, depending on stock characteristic and investor personality.

3) Singapore REITs stocks / sector are suitable for short term momentum trading, partly due to defensive investors with support of possible increase in gearing to 55% (currently at 45%) for stronger REITs. Many REITs (eg. Mapletree & Ascendas related stocks) have strong price momentum but trading strategy has to be applied (combined with optimism for entry/exit).

4) With the latest giant detector, there are 1480 global “standard” giant stocks with 6 main strategies for trading & investing. There are 110 global dividend giant stocks but only 9 are from Singapore. One Singapore dividend giant stock (Challenger Technologies) was nearly delisted, investor has chance to accumulate this valuable stock for passive income investing during the next global financial crisis.

5) Global Stock Market Outlook
Enjoy summer before winter is coming. Current higher optimism stock market is more suitable for shorter term trading. Longer term investor may wait for potential opportunity (1-2 years after inverted bond yield) to buy low. Understand own personality (eg. trading or investing, growth or dividend investing, reward vs risk, etc), then align the right strategy (buy low sell high / buy low hold long term / buy high sell higher, etc).

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For general public who is interested to learn 5 strategies of LOFTP (Levels, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical, Personal Analysis) stock investing , you may sign up for the next free 4hr course by Dr Tee.

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Winter is Coming – 3 Strategies for Global Stock Market Crisis

Posted on July 3, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

For fans of Game of Thrones, they are familiar with “Winter is Coming” as there are signs before the crisis in kingdom. However, for fans of stock market, it is important to know how to prepare for coming winter (global economic recession) after a long summer of bullish stock market over 10 years since recovery from the last global stock market crisis in year 2009.

Trump has been trying to prolong the bull run with various policies, eg. reduction of corporate tax from 35% to 21%, creating more jobs in US, trade war with China and the rest of the world for quick gains of US, etc. Unfortunately, economy usually behaves in a cyclic manner due to over-supply or over-demand at different stages of economy, requiring years to get back to normal again after reaching the extreme greed or fear in market emotions. When we see summer in US now (overheated economy with the lowest unemployment rate of 3.6% in 49 years in US, historical high of S&P500 index at 2973 points recorded recently, inverted bond yield, etc), we know “winter is coming” for global stock market crisis, the coldness of potential financial crisis would spread globally from US, the No 1 economy with more than 50% global stock value.

Here are 3 ways to prepare for global stock market crisis (financial winter time) for 3 fans of stock market: long term investors, market cycle investors and short term traders.

1) Stock Market Crisis for Long Term Investors
It is possible for long term investors to ignore the up and down in prices, including potential winter time (global stock market crisis) because the investors have prepared well in advance when investing many years ago, there is no need to exit at all during market correction. The conditions for long term or even lifetime investing (buy and hold permanently) are the stocks invested should be over a portfolio of at least 10 strong fundamental stocks at low optimism price, defensive in prices (less volatility with strong economic moat) with consistent growth in both share prices and businesses for capital gains, as well as some dividend payment (>2% dividend yield) as bonus, exceeding the bank interest rate.

This strategy requires knowledge of super giant stocks (what to buy from <5% of selected global stocks), ability to take action during the coldest winter (Level 4 – global financial crisis) and tremendous patience and calm to hold through a long term or even throughout the lifetime (continue to hold as long as quarterly or yearly review, confirming it is still a giant stock)

2) Stock Market Crisis for Market Cycle Investors
Market cycle investors integrate the best of investing (buy strong fundamental stocks) and trading (buy low sell high), leveraging on economic cycles (typically over 5-10 years) to safely maximize the return with natural investment clock.

This strategy requires a regional (Level 3) or global (Level 4) financial crisis to create tremendous fear in the stock market for majority of investors and traders to sell low unwillingly or willingly (over 50% discount in share prices at low optimism). However, a financial crisis could be a real crisis for weak businesses which may not last through the winter during economic recession (potential bankruptcy). Therefore, it is important to invest in a portfolio of at least 10 giant stocks with strong business fundamental, especially for stocks in cyclic sectors such as banking & finance, property, technology, airline, industrial, etc.

3) Stock Market Crisis for Short Term Traders
Short term traders could still enjoy the hot summer, eg. current bullish stock market to buy high sell higher with momentum trading or swing trading. This group of stock market fans could react faster to the changes in stock market, especially when it turns direction from bull to bear. In fact, short term traders could participate in all stages of stock market, firstly buy up in possible last phase of bullish stock market, shorting in bearish stock market crisis, finally buy up again when stock market is reborn again one day. However, the emotional control is the most critical (greed, fear, regret, etc) for stocks traders to be successful.

This strategy requires short term positioning (from weeks to months), successful traders need to follow proven trading plan to enter with bullish signals and exit when there are confirmed bearish signals (eg. trending down in share prices), continue to hold (position trading) when there are no major changes. Although short term stock trading may not require strong fundamental stocks as business may not have drastic changes in weeks or months, it is still useful for traders to consider profitable business (when long a stock) as both good fundamental and market greed could contribute to higher share prices in a bullish short term stock market.

Since summer is here and winter is coming, have you prepared for this rare opportunity? Any of the 3 fans above could profit from stock market crisis but should know the exact strategy (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell). Don’t be ignorant with no action taken as there is great opportunity cost for missing in action in stock market crisis. Learn from Dr Tee with free 4hr stock investment course, preparing to profit from stock market crisis.

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook Tagged: stock market crisis

Disruptive Technology for Long Term Lifetime Investing

Posted on June 20, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

It is possible for disruptive technology (eg. virtual bank, cryptocurrencies, etc) to change the banking & finance but it won’t be overnight, many major conventional banks are still top choices for longer term or even lifetime investing (need to compare price vs value before entry). SPH has shown weakness since 10 years ago (declining number of newspaper readers and earning), there is enough time to exit from stock investing if one day conventional banks are affected. These blue chips are likely to prepare in advance as well, see how Comfortdelgro adapts to dynamic pricing to fight against Grab Taxi.

Technology stocks are generally not suitable for longer term passive investing (unless monitor both share prices and businesses regularly) as new disruptive technology could change the entire sector, a business could be out-dated if not keep up with R&D. See the changes of mobile phone leaders over the past few decades from Motorola to Nokia to Samsung / Apple / Huawei … how long the BAT-FAANG (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google) could continue to dominate the market?

Every generation (about 25 years) has its own unique sector for longer term investing due to business moat during this period. In general, property / bank / utility stocks have longer lasting business and economic moat but careful choice of stocks are critical and understanding the sector cycle to compare share price vs business value, applying strategies of Buy Low Sell High, or Buy & Hold (until value is diminishing one day).

In short, monitor the quarterly or yearly business performance, especially for longer term or lifetime investing, don’t just buy stock and hold for lifetime. How to extend decade of past performance to project into lifetime investing, assuming no challenger for next few decades? Eg, we could see the trend of declining soft drink (carbonated) over the decades, Coke has to make changes or diversify into other products, may not be the same good stock for long term investing as decades ago when Buffett was younger. Similarly, number of smokers (% population) are declining, therefore tobacco / cigarette stock may not be suitable for longer term holding.

Sign up free 4hr stock investment course by Dr Tee to learn various giant stocks of current generation for longer term investing or shorter term trading. Register Here.

Filed Under: Stock Market, Value Investing Tagged: disruptive technology, lifetime investing

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