Dr Tee (Ein55)

Investment Money Has Eyes (水涨船高)

Posted on March 22, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Money has “eyes”, will find its way through the global investment markets (stocks, properties, commodities, bond, forex, etc), looking for higher and quicker return in bull market (eg. stock and property markets with stronger economy); seeking safe haven market for safety during bear market (eg. more cash in bank or higher demand in bond market with weaker economy).

When investment market is fearful, fund with global money would flow from stocks to bonds (especially for Level 3 country level bond, eg. US treasury bond) due to safety, resulting in higher bond price, therefore lower bond yield. US 10 years treasury bond yield even dropped to about 0.5% during the recent flash stock market crash, recovering to around 1.1% recently, but still at historical low level.

A few key points on investment money flow:

1) US is No 1 world economy, a safe haven, despite lower interest rate (0%), USD is stronger during current bear market, therefore USD/SGD at high optimism, about 1.45 exchange rate. Similarly, usually emerging market currency would be stronger during a bull market. Forex traders or overseas investors (require forex consideration in stock or property investment) have to understand impact of economy and stock market, etc, on each pair of forex.

2) US government bond yield at 1% is no longer for investment, more for safety. Therefore, it is possible even for bond market to have major correction (price down, yield up) but only when confidence of country is affected and there is opportunity in stock market recovery, then fund would flow from bond market or cash (in bank or under pillow) to stock market again.

3) When market sentiment is fearful, even Level 1, individual bond (corporate bond) would suffer but bond has fixed income and guaranteed for principal upon maturity, therefore it is possible to invest in corporate bond with higher return (eg. over 5% bond yield) but need to focus on shorter term bond (<6-12 months to avoid higher risk during potential global financial crisis) with strong business fundamental (unlikely to default in bond, supported by strong asset, earning or cashflow with lower debt).

Current global stock market crisis (about 30% is US / Singapore, 40% in Europe) is only a stock crisis due to fear (technical recession with falling in stock prices), not yet a global financial crisis (with declining economy) but investor has to monitor very closely, especially the 2 black swans of Coronavirus condition and Crude Oil market price war, making crucial decision before summer (Jun-July 2020).

Since global Quantitative Easing (QE or printing of money) is back again, the natural balance among the investment markets would be affected. With QE, it is possible for both stock and bond market to rise (flooding of money) and drop (exit of QE) together, not necessarily opposite to each other (usually when there is no QE).

Recent global stock crisis is a major reversal of how the smart money may flow among the 5 major investment markets (cash in bank, stock, bond, property, commodity, forex).

Readers should take proactive actions in next few months, especially for stock market, many global giant stocks are at very attractive discount (some even more than 50% correction) but positioning requires a unique combination of counter-trend and trend-following strategies aligned with own personality.

Learn from Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to position in current global stock crisis: What stocks and other investments to Buy, When to Buy / Sell.

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 8000 members:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/ein55forum/

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

Dr Tee Video Education: Global Stock Crisis Investing

Posted on March 21, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In this Dr Tee video education (Global Stock Crisis Investing), you will learn:

1) Understand how the 2 black swans crashed the global stock market in last 1 month

2) Compare global stock market losses: US, Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Germany.

3) Technical Analysis of Coronavirus by country with stage of virus life cycle and estimated ending period.

4) Position in two possible scenarios for global stock market before summer 2020 (Jun-July).

5) Investment clock (When to Buy / Sell) with Optimism Strategies (long term / mid term / short term) for 5 global stock markets: World, US, Singapore, Hong Kong and China.

Here is English Version of Ein55 Video Course (Chinese version is available as Dr Tee is bilingual):

This crisis investing strategy may be applied to 30 Singapore STI index component stocks (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

This powerful strategy can be extended to global giant stocks including 30 Malaysia Bursa KLCI index component stocks (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
CIMB (Bursa: 1023) CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BERHAD, DIALOG (Bursa: 7277) DIALOG GROUP BERHAD, DIGI (Bursa: 6947) DIGI.COM BERHAD, GENM (Bursa: 4715) GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD, GENTING (Bursa: 3182) GENTING BERHAD, HAPSENG (Bursa: 3034) HAP SENG CONSOLIDATED BERHAD, HARTA (Bursa: 5168) HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BERHAD, HLBANK (Bursa: 5819) HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD, HLFG (Bursa: 1082) HONG LEONG FINANCIAL GROUP BERHAD, IHH (Bursa: 5225) IHH HEALTHCARE BERHAD, IOICORP (1961) IOI CORPORATION BERHAD, KLCC (Bursa: 5235SS) KLCC PROPERTY HOLDINGS BERHAD, KLK (Bursa: 2445) KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BERHAD, MAXIS (Bursa: 6012) MAXIS BERHAD, MAYBANK (Bursa: 1155) MALAYAN BANKING BERHAD, MISC (Bursa: 3816) MISC BERHAD, NESTLE (Bursa: 4707) NESTLE MALAYSIA BERHAD, PBBANK (Bursa: 1295) PUBLIC BANK BERHAD, PCHEM (Bursa: 5183) PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BERHAD, PETDAG (Bursa: 5681) PETRONAS DAGANGAN BHD, PETGAS (Bursa: 6033) PETRONAS GAS BERHAD, PMETAL (Bursa: 8869) PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDINGS BERHAD, PPB (Bursa: 4065) PPB GROUP BERHAD, RHBBANK (Bursa: 1066) RHB BANK BERHAD, SIME (Bursa: 4197) SIME DARBY BERHAD, SIMEPLT (Bursa: 5285) SIME DARBY PLANTATION BERHAD, TENAGA (Bursa: 5347) TENAGA NASIONAL BHD, TM (Bursa: 4863) TELEKOM MALAYSIA BERHAD, TOPGLOV (7113) TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.

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There are over 1500 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar.

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Personal Analysis, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Trading Tagged: crisis stock investing, global financial crisis, video education

Dr Tee 教育视频: 环球股灾送良机

Posted on March 21, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

在这Dr Tee 教育视频（环球股灾送良机），您可学习：

1）两只黑天鹅如何制造过去一个月的全球股灾。

2）比较全球股市亏损程度：美国、新加坡、香港、中国、德国。

3）各国新冠病毒技术分析：疫情周期，预估结束点。

4）夏天（6-7月）前的股市两大布局。

5）乐观指数显示投资时钟（短期、中期、长期）：全球、美国、新加坡、香港、中国。

这儿是 Dr Tee 华语视频（英语视频也已完成，Dr Tee 双语皆行）：

请欣赏鄙作，留言求进步。您可订阅 Dr Tee Youtube （Ein Tee）频道，链接未来教育视频。双红利：

1) Dr Tee 免费投资课程与电子书下载:
www.ein55.com

2) Dr Tee 9堂网上价值投资策略课程 ($100, Ein55 会员获得75%折扣，只需$25, 可全家分享):
https://www.investingnote.com/store/products/discover-giant-stocks-value-investing-strategies

Filed Under: Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: 环球股灾, 股市, 良机

Uphill Task to Invest in Stock Market Crisis

Posted on March 18, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

When Dow Jones Index drops below 20000 points during intra-day today (quickly recover above it, although may fall below again in near future), this is about last 3 years low. This implies an investor is saving 3 years of investing time if investing in current level. So, when one could invest in last 10 years low for a major stock index (eg. US S&P 500 or Dow Jones Index), it means the crisis helps one to “jump queue”, saving 10 years of waiting time.

So, when looking backward, history does help one to decide the entry and exit, especially the stock market cycle which could be 5 to 10+ years long. Current bull for global/US stock market (Mar 2009 – Mar 2020) is 11 years, the longest in the history of stock market so far, after US stock market lost more than 1/3 of market cap so far, Dow Jones Index falls from nearly 30000 to 20000 points in 1 month. Despite a bear market is confirmed, this is not yet low optimism < 25% based on Ein55 styles, only a mid-size bear so far.

However, the waiting time has to include the fall + recovery again, therefore some investors prefer to wait till the uptrend phase before entry which is easy to miss the boat (1 chance left) when an entry price is not defined. If an investor enters as contrarian approach first, there are at least 2 chances: fall below the desired entry price and again above the entry price after a period of waiting.

Ein55 members, please plan your entries, how many bullets to use: 1 shot or multiple shots. Don’t end up no shot at all when the game is over.

Learn from Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to plan for your “bullets” to shoot, investing in stock market with LOFTP (Levels 1-4, Optimism 0-100%, Fundamental – Strong/Weak, Technical – Up/Down, Personal – Trade/Invest) Strategies to leverage on current global stock market crisis. Register Here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Market Optimism, Personal Analysis, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: Dow Jones Index, S&P 500, stock market crisis

Stock Market Fear with 0% interest rate and $700B QE

Posted on March 17, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

0% US interest Rate + $700B QE = Stock Crisis Fear

US Fed just cut interest rate to historical low of 0-0.25% + strength of $700B QE (Quantitative Easing) but introducing on bearish stock market. This is wasting bullet. In fact, global stock market falls more due to fear of such action, US stock market is halted due to circuit breaker with 7% fall.

A natural way is to let the market reset itself with a global financial crisis and falling of global stock market to low optimism < 25%. However, this would affect the chances of Trump second term presidential election as S&P 500 has been his report card, hard to show negative results to his supporters who may also be investors.

If US stock market (Level 3) falls to low optimism <25%, world stock market (Level 4) would also follow, officially falling into Global Financial Crisis which may last longer than 6-12 months, depending on the severity. It would be timely to consider cyclic giant stocks from sectors such as bank, property, airline, technology, etc, focusing on strong fundamental stocks only, don’t buy stock purely based on prices (eg. historical low price).

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A stock market could only reborn after falling to worse case of <25% optimism, then measures such as QE1 in 2009 could be effective (limited downside then).

US stock market is still at 50% optimism, Trump tries an uphill task to save the stock market by introducing interest rate cut to 0% and massive QE of $700, it is wasting money and effort. Stock market bubbles may be burst, money would escape from stock market, even from bond market (since bond yield is <1%), holding as cash which is king but low interest rate would push some investors to invest again in future, after global financial crisis with low prices of stocks everywhere.

It would take time to recover or if Trump is lucky, Coronavirus may end by summer, then it could still be a mini bear, but fear in stock market may spread faster than Coronavirus over the next few critical months, depending on global countries, need to fight 2 crisis (health + stock) together.

Learn further from Dr Tee, strategies to integrate economy with stock market: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market Tagged: interest rate cut, qe, stock market crisis

Cyclic Investing Stock: DBS Bank

Posted on March 16, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

DBS Bank (SGX: D05) is the largest bank in Southeast Asia, an iconic national bank of Singapore with Temasek as major shareholder (29% ownership). DBS also owns POSB, a common people’s bank in Singapore. DBS is a cyclical stock, performance depends on economic cycle and global stock market cycle, sensitive to changes in global central banks interest rates.

Due to Coronavirus induced stock market crash over the past 1 month, the Fed has decided to cut US bank interest rates, firstly by 0.5%, then again by another 1%, dropping to historical low of 0-0.5%, hoping to stimulate and sustain the current US economy. Global central banks include Singapore are expected to follow the footstep to lower the domestic interest rates.

In general, banks have several ways to make money, there are 2 main types:

1) Interest related income

Main revenue is through the difference of deposit (eg. 1%) and loan (eg. 2%), or the Net Interest Margin (NIM) to make money from cash in and out the bank. Usually when interest rates are at higher level (eg. over the past 5 years), NIM will be relatively higher, therefore most banks (including DBS, OCBC, UOB) would make money easily. Therefore over the past few years, there is no strong need to read the quarterly financial reports of 3 major banks in Singapore as the interest related income would be higher naturally.

However, with the downtrend US interest rates from over 2% to 0% over the past 1+ year, bank stocks have to work harder in other revenue generator to maintain the profits.

2) Non-interest related Income

Traditional banks mostly make money from interest income but modern banks also depend on investment (bank could use the cash obtained at low interest to make investment for higher return), insurance (many banks also have insurance business, eg. OCBC with Great Eastern (SGX: G07), UOB Bank (SGX: U11) with United Overseas Insurance (SGX: U13), etc), credit card (now you may understand why you may have so many credit cards issued by various banks, including DBS / POSB).

During bullish economy, investment income could be significant, therefore usually bank stocks prices following the economic cycle, especially for DBS. About every 10 years, there will be a stock market cycle induced by a global financial crisis, eg. Year 1997-1998 (Asian Financial Crisis), Year 2003 (SARS/Gulf War), Year 2008-2009 (Subprime Crisis) and potentially Year 2020 (Coronavirus Crisis?) which is still on-going, still a mini bear at the moment.

In every global financial crisis (eg. Years 1997/2003/2009), we may observe some fearful people queue up in front of DBS bank (and also other banks), worry bank may go “bankrupt”, therefore would like to withdraw the money to keep “safely” at home. As a result, DBS share prices dropped to less than $10/share in these crisis, but recovering above $10 or even $20 when people forget again several years later.

Banks usually keep only a minimum sum of cash (could be less than 10%) for regular operations, lending out most of the cash to make money. If everyone comes to withdraw money (see many years ago during Euro Debt Crisis, photo showing some elderly people crying in weaker bank in Greece, not able to withdraw money), then even the strongest bank in the world may not able to give the cash on time. Therefore, bank with strong sponsor is crucial, especially for DBS bank backed by Temasek with Singapore government with AAA credit rating supporting behind.

So, a smart way of stock investing is to wait for DBS bank share to drop to less than $10/share again during the next global financial crisis or observe any long queue in front of DBS bank to withdraw money again (not a reliable way, just a form of Personal Analysis, PA, for confirmation if needed).

Currently DBS is about $18+, below critical $20/share support, share price is about 40% optimism, just below the fair price of $21. The Price-to-Book (PB) ratio has dropped below the historical low of 1, currently at 0.97 (about 3% discount, not much, but rarely happen to DBS). In order to buy at unfair price (may not be <$10), one has to follow optimism strategy to consider DBS bank at share price <25% Optimism, a few may even aim for 0% optimism to take full advantage of crisis as many other giant stocks.

Value investing is simple, knowing the value, then wait for the discount before buying the stock. Only difference is how much discount is sufficient may depend on individual, eg. DBS share prices at $20, $15, $10, $5 … However, when one is too greedy for the highest discount (eg. looking at historical low price which usually is not a good way as history may not repeat in this way), eg. buying DBS at $1/share, as probability is low (although not 0%). Assuming DBS may drop to $1/share, I doubt few people dare to buy the stocks then because there could be a crisis similar to the scale of 1929 Great Depression.

In short, Buy Low enough (Sell High in future for cyclic stock such as DBS), no need to buy at the lowest (else one may miss the perfect timing, totally lose the investment opportunity). A smart investor may also integrate with trading to avoid buy low get lower to buy undervalue stocks during bear market. For further risk management, one may consider 10-20 giant stocks to buy strong fundamental stocks in 10 different sectors or countries for diversification, even if DBS really go “bankrupt” one day, the potential loss is controlled within 5-10% of investment portfolio.

There are 30 Banking & Finance stocks in Singapore (an investor needs to focus only on giant stocks) with DBS Bank as the leader:
AMTD IB OV (SGX: HKB), B&M Hldg (SGX: CJN), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Edition (SGX: 5HG), G K Goh (SGX: G41), Global Investment (SGX: B73), Great Eastern (SGX: G07), Hong Leong Finance (SGX: S41), Hotung Investment (SGX: BLS), IFAST Corporation (SGX: AIY), IFS Capital (SGX: I49), Intraco (SGX: I06), Maxi-Cash Finance (SGX: 5UF), MoneyMax Finance (SGX: 5WJ), Net Pacific Finance (SGX: 5QY), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), Pacific Century (SGX: P15), Prudential USD (SGX: K6S), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), SHS (SGX: 566), Sing Investments & Finance (SGX: S35), Singapore Reinsurance (SGX: S49), Singapura Finance (SGX: S23), TIH (SGX: T55), Uni-Asia Group (SGX: CHJ), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOB-KAY HIAN HOLDINGS (SGX: U10), UOI (SGX: U13), ValueMax (SGX: T6I), Vibrant Group (SGX: BIP).

DBS is a good cyclic bank stock which also pay dividend consistently (currently over 6% dividend yield) if one could align with market cycle, applying optimism strategies. DBS is not suitable for growth investing (OCBC Bank (SGX: O39) could fit better). So, selection of right stock with right strategy with unique personality is key for investment success.

Instead of watching for long withdrawal queue in DBS (not a reliable investing method), smart investors may learn from Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to apply LOFTP (Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) Strategies in global giant stocks (including banks stronger than DBS), knowing what to buy, when to buy/sell or how long to hold.
Register Here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Outlook, Stock Market Tagged: cyclic investing stock, dbs, dbs bank, global financial crisis, stock market, temasek stock

When will be End of Coronavirus Pandemic & Stock Crisis?

Posted on March 16, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

There is a repeatable pattern in global Coronavirus life cycle, although cycle duration and magnitude of peak.

China cases has nearly ended (Dec 2019 – Mar 2020), peak was end of Feb as projected in earlier analysis, would nearly end by Mar 2020. China is the first country to start, also the first country to end. So, experience of China (first country to start and end) is useful reference for other countries.

All the world with individual country cases are recorded here (paying attention to max new daily cases, when it is reached, would take about 1 month to reach the 95-99% peak of total cases, then another 1 month to fade away) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Similar to stock investment and trading, if there are proven methods in the past 100 hundred years (eg. Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis), one could master them first, then gradually refine the strategies.

Korea epidemic is about 1 month behind China (subsiding from the peak, projected by end of Mar 2020), possible duration of Jan-Apr 2020.

This shows that if similar effort is put in (eg. active intervention by local government), the Coronavirus cycle may be about 4 months (2-3 months to reach a peak, 1-2 months to subside).

US and Europe is located further (require international flights to spread the Coronavirus), about 2 months after China pattern, active infection period could be Feb-May 2020 (reaching a peak by end of Apr 2020, fading away in May 2020). US was slow initially, now has started active intervention, possible to follow the 4 months duration. Each year, there are over 100 thousands American die of common flu but many are elderly people with weaker immune system. However, Coronavirus could also kill younger age people younger (mostly more than 40 years old), therefore many people are fearful of this unknown virus.

However, a few countries (eg. UK and Sweden) may not prepare to fight the Coronavirus actively, just let the nature takes its course, likely the peak cases will be more severe in the first 2 months (eg. Iran or Italy cases without active intervention in the first 1 month) with method of community immune system (hoping virus would end naturally or evolve into less deadly strain with many times of infection when over 60% people are infected). So, the duration of this new method of “no invention” as solution is yet to be observed, will be a useful reference for future epidemic but it comes with big price (many death) if it does not work (eg. fatality rate is much severe than common flu).

For Singapore and some countries (eg. Southeast Asia: Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, etc), spreading of Coronavirus is slower initially (could be due to warmer weather), but due to cross-infection by travelers of inter-countries (eg. Europe / US / Southeast Asia), start to grow in new cases. Therefore, even with active government control, duration could be longer (but lower peak), period could be 5 months (Jan – May 2020), ending in each country depends on when global pandemic may end unless the country could be totally isolated from the rest of the world (eg. Australia and New Zealand measures of isolating all international travelers for 14 days upon arrival).

Of course, if the last continent, Africa, may also be infected badly, then global pandemic could only end with Mar-June 2020, until all countries have gone through 1 cycle of 4 months infection within the country.

However, even the pandemic may end in summer (Jun-Aug 2020), it may come back as new strain of virus in the next winter (Dec 2020) in another unexpected country or city. So, vaccine development is still key. Last time SARS in 2003 ended too fast in summer, on-going vaccine development was stopped, otherwise it could be modified for Coronavirus as both belong to the same family of viruses.

Global stock markets experienced a minor correction (10% correction) during initial fear of Coronavirus, following by major correction (20% drawdown) when spreading is growing globally as pandemic. Under the worst case, if Coronavirus remains serious beyond this summer, coming back in new cycle of life in next winter, then global financial crisis would be waiting. Therefore, fighting against Coronavirus is not just for health (life), also for wealth later. Without health (life), then wealth is meaningless.

When Coronavirus pandemic and stock crisis are almost game over, it is time to master stock investment skill to improve quality of life in future, learning from free 4 hour investment course by Dr Tee here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Outlook, Personal Analysis, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: coronavirus, pandemic, stock market crisis

3M of Stock Investment Plan (Hongkong Land)

Posted on March 16, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Some investors may think Hongkong Land (SGX: H78) or any giant stock at 0% optimism is a no-brainer stock investment, simply buy now (Price-to-Book, PB ratio of 0.26 with 74% discount in price for high quality property asset) and hold long term for crisis to be over with price recovery, sure will make money with capital gains.

Above is half understanding based on pure “Method”. There are 3M to consider:

3M Investment = Method x Mind X Money Management.

Whenever any 1 of the 3M is weak or zero, entire investment plan would fail due to multiplication effect.

Let me extend the earlier sentence from 1M to 3M:

Hongkong Land is a good buy now at current price, if one is prepared to hold long term with contrarian strategy (including diversification over a portfolio of 10 global giant stocks) which is comfortable with one’s personality (eg. the person will not check share price daily, will not be sleepless each night when seeing Hongkong Land stock price may fall by another 50% in next 6-12 months). If the person is willing to lock the Hongkong Land stock share in a drawer for at least 5 years (only check the price and business fundamental quarterly), then probably near to the rare quality of 5% group of contrarian investors. The person would be similar to Warren Buffett mindset, able to take the finger pointing by others (eg. “you are wrong, should not buy, now is a bad market, etc”).

Let’s do a simulation of application of only 1M (Method). After buying Hongkong Land (assuming the same low price now with PB ratio = 0.26), assuming Coronavirus could be out of control in US & Europe in next few months, many death reported, global stock markets drop from current mid optimism to low optimism, Hongkong Land may fall down another 25% in price. If global financial crisis is induced due to weaker economy over 6-12 months, then Hongkong Land could fall down another 25%, perhaps the PB could be 0.26/2 = 0.13 then (more discount given).

If the person is very comfortable with falling in share prices (treat is as different degree of discount, no need to buy at the most discount with the lowest price) as main concern is to ensure asset value with business won’t be affected in long term. If there is a global financial crisis, it is possible for Hong Kong property valuation to drop 20%, especially Hong Kong property market is at relatively higher price or optimism level over the past 20+ years but it usually won’t last long in this way), then it is a good buy for this person, especially if the position of Hongkong Land stock is no more than 10% of entire portfolio.

Some investors may think if one follows exactly as the Method required (either long term investing or short term trading), then there is no harm to follow. However, once the person make an surprised loss (Mind Control is affected), especially over trade or invest in only 1 stock (poor Money Management).

In short, when finding a Method for stock investment, learn and choose a strategy aligned with own personality (many factors to consider), not just because it is a “sure win” Method. Due to mismatch of personality, this is why traders mindset may fail in investing, while investor mindset may fail in trading. There is also 5% of rare group which could invest and trade, having “dual” personalities, able to make money in both short term trading and long term investing. For majority of the people, there is no need to be greedy to earn all the money in the market, just focus on 1 way comfortable with oneself, be the master with years of practice with stock market experience as the teacher.

There are 30 STI index component stocks including Hongkong Land (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

There is no get-rich-quick or sure-win investment or trading method. Each “Method” requires own experience with own “Money” through own “Mind” to convert into a skill which is repeated. Some may take more time, some may be faster to achieve this goal. The current stock market crisis could be a pain to many people but will be helpful in reshaping one’s strategy (经一事、长一智).

Apply probability investing in planning of stock investment or trading. High probability does not mean 100%, even cash deposit in bank is not 100% safe. A weak bank could go bankrupt, $1 Million deposit could only get $75k compensation. Risk tolerance level is also one of the “PA” (Personal Analysis).

There are 140 property & construction stocks in Singapore including Hongkong Land (47 of them are undervalue with PB<1):
3Cnergy (SGX: 502), A-Smart (SGX: BQC), AEI^ (SGX: AWG), AIMS Property (SGX: BVP), APAC Realty (SGX: CLN), Abterra (SGX: L5I), Acromec (SGX: 43F), Amara (SGX: A34), Amcorp Global (SGX: S9B), AnnAik (SGX: A52), Astaka (SGX: 42S), BBR (SGX: KJ5), BRC Asia (SGX: BEC), BlackGoldNatural (SGX: 41H), Boldtek (SGX: 5VI), Bonvests (SGX: B28), Boustead (SGX: F9D), Boustead Projects (SGX: AVM), Bukit Sembawang (SGX: B61), Bund Center (SGX: BTE), CSC (SGX: C06), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Casa (SGX: C04), Chemical Industries (SGX: C05), China Great Land (SGX: D50), China International (SGX: BEH), China Real Estate (SGX: 5RA), China Yuanbang (SGX: BCD), Chip Eng Seng (SGX: C29), City Development (SGX: C09), DISA (SGX: 532), Debao Property (SGX: BTF), ETC Singapore (SGX: 1C0), Edition (SGX: 5HG), EnGro Corporation (SGX: S44), Fraser and Neave F&N (SGX: F99), Far East Orchard (SGX: O10), Figtree (SGX: 5F4), First Sponsor (SGX: ADN), Fragrance (SGX: F31), Frasers Property (SGX: TQ5), GYP Properties (SGX: AWS), Gallant Venture (SGX: 5IG), Golden Energy (SGX: AUE), Goodland (SGX: 5PC), GuocoLand (SGX: F17), HL Global Enterprises (SGX: AVX), Hatten Land (SGX: PH0), Heeton (SGX: 5DP), Hiap Hoe (SGX: 5JK), Hiap Seng (SGX: 510), Ho Bee Land (SGX: H13), Hock Lian Seng (SGX: J2T), Hong Fok (SGX: H30), Hong Lai Huat (SGX: CTO), Hong Leong Asia (SGX: H22), Hongkong Land USD (SGX: H78), Hor Kew (SGX: BBP), Huationg Global (SGX: 41B), Hwa Hong (SGX: H19), IPC Corp (SGX: AZA), ISOTeam (SGX: 5WF), Imperium Crown (SGX: 5HT), Jasper Investments (SGX: FQ7), KOP (SGX: 5I1), KSH (SGX: ER0), Keong Hong (SGX: 5TT), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel Reit (SGX: K71U), King Wan (SGX: 554), Koh Brothers (SGX: K75), Koon (SGX: 5DL), Kori (SGX: 5VC), LHN (SGX: 41O), Ley Choon (SGX: Q0X), Lian Beng (SGX: L03), Low Keng Huat (SGX: F1E), Lum Chang (SGX: L19), MMP Resources (SGX: F3V), MYP (SGX: F86), Metro (SGX: M01), OIO (SGX: KUX), OKH Global (SGX: S3N), OKP (SGX: 5CF), OneApex (SGX: 5SY), Oxley (SGX: 5UX), PSL (SGX: BLL), Pacific Century (SGX: P15), Pacific Star Development (SGX: 1C5), Pan Hong (SGX: P36), Pavillon (SGX: 596), Perennial Holdings (SGX: 40S), Pollux Properties (SGX: 5AE), PropNex (SGX: OYY), Raffles Infrastructure (SGX: LUY), Regal International (SGX: UV1), Renaissance United (SGX: I11), Rich Capital (SGX: 5G4), Roxy-Pacific (SGX: E8Z), Ryobi Kiso (SGX: BDN), SHS (SGX: 566), SLB Development (SGX: 1J0), SP Corporation (SGX: AWE), Sasseur Reit (SGX: CRPU), Second Chance (SGX: 528), Sin Heng Mach (SGX: BKA), Sinarmas Land (SGX: A26), SingHaiyi (SGX: 5H0), SingHoldings (SGX: 5IC), Singapore-eDev (SGX: 40V), Sinjia Land (SGX: 5HH), Soilbuild Construction Group (SGX: S7P), Starland (SGX: 5UA), Straits Trading (SGX: S20), Swee Hong (SGX: QF6), Sysma (SGX: 5UO), TA (SGX: PA3), TTJ (SGX: K1Q), Tai Sin Electric (SGX: 500), Thakral (SGX: AWI), Thomson Medical Group (SGX: A50), Tiong Seng (SGX: BFI), Top Global (SGX: BHO), Tosei (SGX: S2D), Transcorp (SGX: T19), Tritech (SGX: 5G9), UIC (SGX: U06), UOA (SGX: EH5), UOL (SGX: U14), USP Group (SGX: BRS), Vibrant Group (SGX: BIP), Wee Hur (SGX: E3B), Wing Tai (SGX: W05), Yanlord Land (SGX: Z25), Yeo Hiap Seng (SGX: Y03), Ying Li International (SGX: 5DM), Yoma Strategic (SGX: Z59), Yongmao (SGX: BKX), Yongnam (SGX: AXB), Yorkshine (SGX: MR8).

For students before joining 6-day Ein55 course (www.ein55.com/course), they would do this homework (a series of psychological tests) to know their unique personality better, before aligning with the strategies later.

Stock investment is not as easy as it sounds but when one aligns with own personality, it would become a positive habit, as easy as breathing or drinking water.

Learn from Dr Tee 4hr free investment course on 3M way of stock investment or trading with a dream team of global giant stocks. Register Here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Property Market, Stock Market, Value Investing Tagged: 3M strategy, contrarian investing, Hong Kong Market, Hongkong Land, investing strategies, jardine, Personal Analysis, Property, Property Stocks, stock investment, stock strategies, undervalue stock

Contrarian Investing Stock – Hongkong Land (SGX: H78)

Posted on March 15, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Hongkong Land (SGX: H78) is at 0% Optimism after falling in share prices over the past few years (especially over the past few months), very bearish (similar situation for other Jardine Group siblings of giant stocks – JMH, JSH, Jardine C&C, Dairy Farm, etc). Jardine Group of stocks are mainly suitable for contrarian investors (i.e. Warren Buffett styles) who only buy based on price below value, ignoring the falling knife of share prices.

There are 30 STI index component stocks including Hongkong Land (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

Price to book ratio (PB) of Hongkong Land is around 0.26 based on my memory (presented in yesterday workshop), implying 74% discount of price below net asset value which mostly is property. This is the lowest PB or most undervalue stage of Hongkong Land history over the past 10+ years.

If one could buy a giant stock with 50% discount in high quality asset (property or cash), even the company go bankrupt immediately, still can make money as the person only pays for 50% of the value, could get at 70% of remaining asset when company go under liquidation.

Of course, Jardine Group with nearly 200 years of history may disappoint investor for not able to go bankrupt immediately (it is a game of patience), Hongkong Land buildings still stand firm despite Hong Kong protesters 1 year ago and current with Coronavirus or global stock market meltdown.

It is not easy to be a contrarian investor (Be greedy when others are fearful; Be fearful when others are greedy), one needs to have independent thinking (eg. many people point fingers at Warren Buffett for wrong move to buy airline stocks with falling in prices and businesses). Alternatively, one has to switch off all the channels (eg. social media, news, newspaper, etc) to prevent the noises. Investment journey is lonely, especially for this group of rare contrarian investors, only 5% of investors may have this personality.

Most investors are more suitable for trend-following trading or investing as it is human nature to investor making money, not making loss (even it may be for a limited period of time). Either contrarian investors or trend-following traders are fine, more importantly one needs to align with own personality, do not force oneself to copy another expert’s best method (eg. Warren Buffett styles), ending up regret for life as could not follow through.

Learn from Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to apply 10 different strategies for 10 unique personalities for stock trading or investing, including contrarian investing and trend-following trading. Register Here: www.ein55.com

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Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Property Market, Stock Market Tagged: contrarian investing, Hong Kong Market, Hongkong Land, investing strategies, jardine, Property, Property Stocks, stock strategies, undervalue stock, warren buffett

Risk Management for Stock Investment (三足鼎立)

Posted on March 15, 2020 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

In stock or any investment, before aiming for rewards, one should consider the potential risks first:

– what are the threats (poor business, bearish price, weak economy, etc)

– how it may fail (high debt, cashflow issue, political / legislation, etc)

– how likely it may fail (record of proven business, economic moat, etc)

– when it may fail (global financial crisis, business crisis, etc)

– how bad is the potential loss (0%, 10%, 50%, 90%, 100%)

.. and many more factors to consider.

From physics point of view, an object only needs 3 legs to be supported in a stable position (三足鼎立), similar to stock investment with diversification over 3 chances:

– 3 Minimum Analysis: FTP (FA + TA + PA) = Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis with comprehensive views

– 3 countries of stocks: minimize regional crisis

– 3 sectors of stocks: minimize sector crisis

– 3 timing of entries (at low optimism) / exits (at high optimism): minimize surprises at certain period

– 3 types of stock players (defender – dividend, midfielder – dividend + capital gains, striker – capital gains): well-balanced investment team

– 3 timeframes – Short term (ST), Mid term (MT), Long term (LT): full coverage of trading and investment period

– 3 prices in SET in trading plan: Stop Loss / Entry / Target Prices

– 3 actions: Buy / Sell / Do nothing (Hold or Wait)

…and many more “3 legs” in risk management

Learn from Dr Tee free 4hr course to consider both rewards and risks for different types of investment (stocks, properties, commodities, forex, bonds) with 10 unique trading and invest strategies. Register Here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: risk management, stock market

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