Are you excited by recent 0.5% interest cut by US Fed which may be a hidden market stimulation? US stocks (especially Dow Jones and S&P500) are near historical high, even Singapore STI is at last 6 years high >3600 points (having potential to break 2007 historical high if >3900 points, especially with stronger growth and recovery of STI which many are dividend stocks, not limited to SG REITs).
Current global stock markets are the most confusing to both long term investors and short term traders because past few decades of investment market relationship (eg. stocks vs bonds) are very different from past few years of market condition since 2020 pandemic.
A key difference is we have experienced hyper-inflation (9+%) which only happened 50 years ago in 1970s and 1980s. Over the past few decades, usually US interest rate is adjusted higher during bullish economy and stock market, cut to stimulate economy during recession. However, current market condition is closer to 1980s with hyper-inflation, US interest rate is adjusted higher to tame the hyper-inflation over 10+%. With lower inflation, then US interest rate is cut, indirectly stimulate US and global stock markets to higher level, with condition that there is no recession (eg. negative GDP growth rate).
There are 3 key supporting signals for US and global stock markets to continue the bull run (一波三折):
1) US inflation starts to fall from the peak of 9+%
2) Golden Cross for US inflation falls just below interest rate of 5+%
3) US interest rate starts to cut from the peak of 5+%
Key signals #1 and #2 (see image above) were highlighted by Dr Tee in earlier posts over the past 2 years, global stock markets, especially US stocks have shown significant appreciation since then. For readers who missed the boats, it is never too late as Key signal #3 just comes, the Fed has just start to cut interest rate by 0.5% from the peak of 5.5% in Sep 2024. In fact, early investors may follow Signal #2.5, meaning taking action >6 months ago, anticipating US will cut interest rate, especially after Signal #2 with strong confirmation of consistently lower inflation below the interest rate peak of 5+%.
A strong condition for Signal #3 is that US economy should experience soft landing, instead of hard landing as the past few decades, else interest rate cut may become a risky signal to save falling economy. Despite weaker US job market, historically it is still considered above average (below 5% unemployment rate) while inflation currently is at average (2.5%) of past few decades, there is no need to achieve ultimate goal of 2% as inflation would fluctuate (eg. between 1+% to 3+%) in a normal market.
Sectors which may benefit from US interest rate cut with growing economy (recovering stronger after soft landing) are across the board, eg. REITs, property stocks and dividend stocks (lower borrowing cost, implying more dividends expected with higher profits), technology stocks (lower borrowing cost for business expansion), industrial and most stocks (stronger business with more spending by consumers with bullish economy). Banks could have mixed effect, depending on natural of segment business, eg. interest income may fall due to lower NIM (Net Interest Margin) with lower interest rate, but volume of interest income may increase with more loans due to stronger economy, together with increasing non-interest income.
Therefore, key is to monitor the economic cycle and also stock market Optimism level (Be Greedy when others are Fearful; Be Fearful when others are Greedy). One day, a black swan may come, it is never too late to exit then or much earlier when global stock market is at high Optimism with shaky economy. It is timely now to review own stock portfolio, making decisions (Buy / Hold / Sell / Wait / Shorting) ahead of majority. Ride the next global stock rally with US interest rate cut, supported by strong global economy.
It is timely now to review own global stock portfolio, making decisions (Buy / Hold / Sell / Wait / Shorting), leveraging on market greed and fear.
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There are over 2000 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.
Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.
Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar, you could ask on any global and local stocks including but not limited to 30 STI component stocks:
Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).
Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.
There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com
View quick preview video below, Dr Tee will introduce 10 key stock investment strategies (股票投资十招) to be learned in 4hr free stock webinar:
Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com
