Singapore Budget 2020 is just announced, a balanced plan with both short term (eg. fighting Coronavirus crisis) and mid/long term (eg. retraining) goals. However, money is never enough, so the incentives is just a temporary relief. A country could only get stronger with higher productivity in higher value economy sectors.
Additional financial assistance is given to 5 main sectors affected by Coronavirus, eg. tourism, airline/cruise, transportation, F&B and retail, some business may have dropped more than 50% over the past 1 month.
Fear of Coronavirus is more harmful than its real risk (# death, so far 0 in Singapore) as people start to stay more at home, the sectors above would badly affected. However, this health crisis is likely to be a short term for a few months. Even it becomes an uncontrollable disease as seasonal flu, the fatality would drop significantly based on past experience of new viruses (eg. H1N1) due to build up of immune system within human with more infection. Human could “evolve” as well together with viruses, both have to co-exist in a balanced way of living.
Based on the latest daily # infected for Coronavirus, World (mainly China) is falling down below the critical 2000 “support” from Technical Analysis point of view, light at the end of tunnel to see a strong bearish signal with strong hope to reach a peak (not absolute peak but 95-99% of ultimate value) by end of Feb 2020, with conditions that data reported so is reliable and consistent without a second wave of infection (workforce back to work after lunar new year).
Singapore is still staying above the “support” of 2 daily cases, no clear signal of downtrend in # infected cases. However, the consistent downtrend in World (mainly China) cases is a strong lead to Singapore which is likely 1+ month behind China.
Even after reaching peak, Coronavirus may take a few months to end as there may be cross-infection of those waiting for recovery and long incubation period (14 days).
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