Similar to Technical Analysis for stock market, we may analyze the # infected cases as share prices but looking for bearish signal, eg downtrend or breaking below a critical support, eg 2000 cases for World (mainly China Hubei) or 2 cases for Singapore.
Latest Coronavirus data (16 Feb 2020) has 3 cases of # infected in Singapore, having good chance to come to “technical support” of 2 daily cases again but need to break below this number for a few days or even 1 week to establish a consistent downtrend. It is harder to analyze Singapore cases due to limited sample size (similar to a volatile penny stock, when base is a low number, up/down would create large % changes).
So, it is relatively more stable to analyze world # infected cases (still near to support of 2000 daily new cases but not yet breaking downward) which are more stable due to large sample size (so far consistently about 1000 times of # cases in Singapore). The mega trend of world could provide some leads to direction of Singapore cases in future.
For stock analysis, this is similar to Level Analysis (LA) or LOFTP strategies, Top-down analysis from World (Level 4) to Country (Level 3) to Sector (Level 2) to Individual Stock (Level 1). For Coronavirus:
Level 4 = World # infected
Level 3 = Respective Country # infected
Level 2 = Respective City # Infected (Singapore L2 = L3 due to small country = city)
Level 1 = Cluster / Group / Company of related cases (smallest unit to track # infected cases).
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Singapore Budget 2020 to be announced on 18 Feb 2020, ideally will serve multiple objectives for 3 different time frames (similar to stock investment: short term, mid term and long term):
1) Short-term (< 3 months): Coronavirus induced financial crisis, especially selected sectors.
2) Mid-term (<1 year): Stimulate Singapore economy which has been slowing down (even before Coronavirus outbreak)
3) Long-term (5-10 years): Create new opportunity for Singapore (restructuring of economy, training / investment in emerging technologies with higher economic values, etc)
Of course, politically, this would give 4th generation leaders, a chance to take the lead, making major decisions during potential crisis time. The results in short term, mid term and long term would translate into scores for voters to consider before next General Election, within 1+ year (latest by 15 Apr 2021). Balance in consideration for short term, mid term and long term would be a test on wisdom of leaders, whether to satisfy short term crisis needs or looking for long term growth or a balanced or average approach with sharing of resources to make most people satisfied but not excited.
Crisis could be an opportunity if the crisis could be resolved eventually with right decisions most of the time. It is true for all countries leaders, especially those most affected by the current Coronavirus: China, Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong, etc.
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