US follows Singapore, also ban those who visited China in last 14 days from entering US except US own people. Australia then follows US with similar move.
However, China criticizes on US’ move today, not Singapore’s move yesterday, showing the relationship among the countries. US is the world leader, many countries would follow its move, especially if elections may come soon, it is important to win the heart of own people.
Many major airlines in US have stopped the flight services between US and China, travelling is still possible through third country but will be significantly less. From economic point of view, this will be a major injury as China contributes to about 30% of global tourists, main source of revenue generation (eg. Thailand suffers a lot with both declining income with few China tourists, also having the most cases of Coronavirus outside China). Taiwan suffered over the past few years with high tension with China, less tourists to Taiwan, now become a blessing in disguise with few cases.
There is always a balance, gaining from China in the past due to more trades or more tourists but now may suffer more with drastic change.
Based on the statistics so far, growth rate of new coronavirus cases are stable at 2000 daily (about 40+ death daily), moving in 1 straightline until a peak is reached, then the growth rate will be slower. If it continues at the same rate for 100 days before arrival of warmer summer or spring, implying 2000 x 100 = 200000 cases, death or fatality rate will be around 2%). There is a high possibility that Coronavirus may become a common flu one day as it is more contagious than SARS or even flu. The R0 value is 3, implying 1 person affected could pass to another 3 persons. Next 3-6 months will be golden period for global scientists to come out with an effective vaccine (until it may be transformed to a new virus in the next season, similar to different types of flu spreading globally each year, killing thousands of people – average 12000 death in US yearly due to flu).
Singapore may be blessed with hot weather, virus may be less active or less deadly. So, try not to touch on anything in public place, then touch own face (eyes, mouth, nose).
If this virus continues even until summer, impact to global economy (especially to China) would be much higher than SARS in 2002-2003 (only 8 months). Investors need to monitor the global stock market and other possible black swan. SARS mainly affected Asia last time but Coronavirus could affect whole world, even it is not as deadly as SARS, less death cases than common flu, however the fear would be tremendous. this may be enough to cause global economy slowdown (less travelling, less trades, less shopping and therefore less spending), if not global financial crisis.
Let’s continue to monitor the trend of Coronavirus. The risk of viruses (common flu, SARS, Coronavirus, Ebola, H1N1, H5N1, MERS, etc) will be never ending. Human needs to learn to minimize the probability of happening (at least not to create new by eating wild animals), finding medical solutions (medical technology) for cure, as well as strengthen own immune system (health / diet) and following other positive habits. Learn to invest in stocks during crisis: www.ein55.com
